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Community Shootaround: Celtics’ Offseason

May 21st, 2023 at 9:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Celtics completely unraveled in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Miami on Sunday night. Coming into the series as the clear favorite, the Celtics would now surprise people by avoiding a sweep after getting completely outplayed and outcoached by the Heat in the series.

Barring a miraculous turnaround, the Celtics will soon face some hard offseason decision rather than making the Finals for the second straight year. Most notably, they have to figure out what to do about their coaching situation and whether to break up their All-Star duo.

Joe Mazzulla had the interim tag removed and received a contract extension in mid-February. The young coach handled himself well during the regular season after getting thrown into the fire following Ime Udoka‘s suspension. He also guided the Celtics past the first two rounds, but has looked overmatched trying to match wits with Miami’s Erik Spoelstra.

Another hot topic of discussion will be Jaylen Brown‘s future. His contract expires after next season and it may behoove the Celtics’ front office to explore trade possibilities for the star wing, who has played poorly in the series.

They’ll also have to decide what to do with Grant Williams, who will be a restricted free agent after being in and out of the rotation this postseason. What price are they willing to match for him, considering their other salary obligations?

Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams and Derrick White are all under contract through at least the 2024/25 season. Tatum isn’t going anywhere, but the Celtics might look to deal one of those veterans to shake up the rotation and fix the issues that have been exposed by the Heat.

That brings up to our topic of the day: What changes should the Celtics make this offseason?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion. We look forward to your input.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Base Year Compensation

May 21st, 2023 at 12:13pm CST by Luke Adams

As Larry Coon explains in his invaluable CBA FAQ, the term “base year compensation” technically no longer shows up in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, and hasn’t since 2011. A relic of past agreements, the base year compensation rule was intended to prevent teams from signing free agents to new contracts that were specifically intended to facilitate salary-matching in trades.

While the base year compensation rules have mostly been adjusted and/or removed from the CBA in recent years, there’s still one situation where they apply. Teams have to take them into account when completing sign-and-trade deals.

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets all of the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

  • He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
  • His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
  • He receives a raise greater than 20%.
  • His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is his full new salary.

Here are a couple specific examples to help make things a little clearer:

Let’s say the Nets want to sign-and-trade Cameron Johnson this offseason. He’s a Bird free agent, his new salary will be well above the minimum, and Brooklyn projects to be an over-the-cap team. Having made $5,887,899 in 2018/19, Johnson figures to receive a raise significantly higher than 20% — his next deal could easily start at or above $20MM. So he meets the BYC criteria.

In a scenario where he signs a deal with a $22MM starting salary as part of a sign-and-trade, Johnson’s salary for matching purposes from the Nets’ perspective would be $11MM, which is 50% of his new salary (that amount is greater than his previous salary). From his new team’s perspective, Johnson’s incoming figure would be his actual salary, $22MM.

James Harden is another top free agent who would meet the BYC criteria if he’s signed-and-traded by the Sixers this offseason. If he gets a maximum salary contract – projected to be worth $46.9MM for a player with his NBA experience – Harden’s outgoing salary for matching purposes would be $33MM, the amount he made in 2022/23 — that figure would be higher than 50% of his new salary.

Often, a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade doesn’t have the cap room to sign the player outright, or else there would be little incentive to negotiate a sign-and-trade. That means salary-matching is required, which can be complicated by base year compensation rules.

In the scenario outlined above, the Nets wouldn’t be able to take back more than $16MM in salary in exchange for Johnson due to the league’s matching rules. That number would dip to $13.85MM if Brooklyn’s team salary is above the tax apron.

However, in order to take on $22MM in incoming salary, Brooklyn’s hypothetical trade partner – assuming they’re over the cap – would have to send out at least $17MM in order to account for those salary-matching rules themselves.

The gap between the salary-matching figures from the two teams’ perspectives complicates sign-and-trade talks, requiring both clubs to include additional pieces to make the deal work. A third team could even be necessary to make the numbers line up.

One recent example of two teams navigating base year compensation rules to complete a sign-and-trade occurred last September, when the Cavaliers sent Collin Sexton to the Jazz as part of the Donovan Mitchell blockbuster. Sexton’s first-year salary was $16.5MM, which was the amount Utah had to account for when matching salaries. But from Cleveland’s perspective, Sexton’s outgoing salary was just $8.25MM, half of that amount, since he met the BYC criteria.

In packaging Sexton with Lauri Markkanen and Ochai Agbaji, the Cavs’ outgoing salary for matching purposes was $28.6MM, which was enough to accommodate Mitchell’s $30.9MM salary. From Utah’s perspective, the three incoming players were worth $36.9MM in incoming salary when taking into account Sexton’s full cap hit. But the Jazz were permitted to take back up to approximately $38.7MM (125% of Mitchell’s salary, plus $100K), so the deal worked for both sides.

The base year compensation concept doesn’t surface all that often, due to the specific criteria that must be met. However, it looms large over sign-and-trade attempts involving free agents who receive significant raises, reducing the likelihood of teams finding a deal that can be legally completed.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

Previous versions of this post were published in 2019 and 2022.

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Poll: Who Should Hornets Draft With No. 2 Pick?

May 21st, 2023 at 11:13am CST by Luke Adams

They’ll miss out on generational prospect Victor Wembanyama, but the Hornets still had a great night on Tuesday at the draft lottery, moving up from No. 4 in the pre-lottery standings to nab the No. 2 overall pick.

Given that Wembanyama is a lock to be drafted first overall, Charlotte can prepare for draft knowing that every other player in this year’s class will be available after San Antonio makes its selection. There shouldn’t be any surprises for the Hornets, so assuming they keep their pick, it’s simply a matter of deciding which non-Wembanyama prospect they like the best.

That list figures to start with two players: G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson and Alabama wing Brandon Miller.

When the 2022/23 season began, Henderson was widely considered a close runner-up to Wembanyama among this year’s top prospects — the two players were in a tier of their own, with Henderson viewed as a prospect who would be a worthy No. 1 overall pick in most years. He’s an explosive guard with excellent court vision who can be a primary play-maker on offense and shows plenty of promise as a backcourt defender.

However, Henderson had an up-and-down season with the Ignite, struggling with his shot in 19 regular season G League games — he made just 42.9% of his attempts from the field, including 27.5% of his three-pointers. Throw in the fact that the Hornets’ incumbent franchise player – LaMelo Ball – is a lead guard and you could make the case that Henderson might not be the best match for Charlotte.

If they’re not sold on Henderson, the Hornets’ top choice may be Miller, whose stock rose substantially over the course of the NCAA season. When Jonathan Givony of ESPN published a mock draft last October, Miller was the No. 19 pick, but the 6’9″ forward had a huge year for the Crimson Tide, averaging 18.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.1 APG while making 38.4% of his 7.5 three-point attempts per game.

In Givony’s most recent mock draft, he has Miller going to the Hornets at No. 2, writing that the 20-year-old’s ability to shoot, facilitate, and defend multiple positions makes him the “archetypal player every NBA team is currently searching for.”

While Miller is probably the better positional fit for Charlotte, his long-term ceiling may fall short of Henderson’s, and any franchise that drafts him will want to learn all it can about his character off the court. Miller was involved in a troubling story in Tuscaloosa over the winter, having brought former Alabama teammate Darius Miles the gun that was used in the killing of Jamea Jonae Harris.

Miller, who insisted that he didn’t know the gun was in the car, wasn’t charged with a crime and was described as a cooperative witness in the case. So while NBA executives will have plenty of questions for the Alabama wing about the incident, there has been a sense that it won’t hurt his draft stock.

“I don’t believe there will be any impact unless he lies in his interviews,” one executive recently told David Aldridge of The Athletic. “Integrity is more relevant than criminal friends; one we can fix, the other, we can’t.”

After Henderson and Miller, the consensus among draft experts is that there’s drop-off before the next tier of prospects, but the Hornets will certainly do their homework on a group that includes Overtime Elite twins Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson, Villanova wing Cam Whitmore, Houston forward Jarace Walker, and Arkansas guard Anthony Black, among others.

Trading the pick is also an option for the Hornets, but Charlotte isn’t believed to leaning toward an aggressive win-now approach this offseason in the same way that the two teams drafting behind them (Portland at No. 3 and Houston at No. 4) are. I can imagine scenarios in which the Hornets trade down from No. 2 to No. 3, but it’s hard to envision them moving out of the top three entirely.

We want to know what you think. If we assume the Hornets keep their pick at No. 2 and Wembanyama is off the board, which player should they draft? Do you think there’s a different between the player they should draft and the one they will select? Would you seriously consider anyone besides Henderson and Miller? Should Charlotte seriously consider trading the pick?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in!

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

May 21st, 2023 at 8:53am CST by Rory Maher

After going 24-58 in 2017/18 and landing the No. 5 overall pick in the 2018 draft, the Mavericks traded up two slots to select Luka Doncic. The move paid immediate dividends, with the Slovenian winning Rookie of the Year in ’18/19 and Dallas increasing its win total by nine games (33-49).

That steady upward trajectory continued in Doncic’s second through fourth seasons, with the Mavs improving in each regular season from 2020-22. The same was true of the playoffs, with Dallas losing in the first round to the Clippers in six and then seven games, and then making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals a year ago, falling to the eventual champion Warriors.

Doncic’s offensive brilliance was on full display again in 2022/23, with the 24-year-old posting career highs in points per game (32.4), field goal percentage (49.6%) and true percentage (60.9%) while cutting down on turnovers (3.6 vs. 4.5 in ’21/22). He also averaged 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.4 steals in 66 games (36.2 minutes) en route to a fourth consecutive All-NBA First Team honor.

However, basketball is a team game, and Doncic played a role in the team’s significant defensive regression. While the Mavs improved on offense, going from 14th to sixth, they slid all the way down to 25th defensively after ranking seventh last season. After going 52-30 with a plus-3.5 net rating in ’21/22, the Mavs went 38-44 with a minus-0.2 net rating this season and missed the play-in tournament completely.

The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:

Dallas was highly criticized throughout the season for opting against re-signing Jalen Brunson, who has publicly said he would have agreed to an extension ($55.6MM over four years) in ’21/22 had the Mavs offered it prior to or early in the season. Instead, he signed with the Knicks for $104MM over four years, and it’s looking like a terrific value deal considering his excellent play during the regular season and postseason with New York.

The only other significant roster tweak the Mavs made last summer was trading their first-round pick (26th overall) and four smallish expiring contracts for Christian Wood. The 27-year-old big man never seemed to ingratiate himself with the coaching staff though, likely due to his defensive struggles. Multiple reports have indicated (and GM Nico Harrison suggested) that the Mavs are unlikely re-sign the impending free agent.

Wood’s lack of defensive awareness is not a new problem, so I’m not sure why Dallas thought he’d suddenly get better there. Regardless, it certainly sounds like the talented scorer will be on a new team next season after averaging 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks on .515/.376/.772 shooting in 67 games with the Mavs (17 starts, 25.6 minutes).

Dallas’ free agent role player group features Dwight Powell, Justin Holiday, Theo Pinson, Frank Ntilikina and Markieff Morris. Powell probably has the best chance to return as the longest-tenured member of the team, but only if he’s willing to accept a substantial pay cut after earning $11MM in 2022/23 — his play has declined in recent seasons.

The biggest offseason question surrounding the Mavs relates to their trade deadline acquisition of Kyrie Irving, who is also a free agent. The move was made to kick-start their season in an effort to make the playoffs, but that’s not how things turned out — Dallas was 30-26 and clinging to the No. 5 seed prior to Irving’s first game, and went 8-18 the rest of the way.

I’m certainly not blaming that on Irving. The Mavs were 8-12 when he played, which isn’t great, but they were much, much better when he was on the court (plus-5.8) than when he was off (minus-8.3). His individual numbers (27.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.3 steals on .510/.392/.947 shooting in 20 games) were stellar, and by all accounts he didn’t cause any disruptions in the locker room.

Still, the fact that Dallas was 5-11 with both Irving and Doncic in the lineup was problematic, and shows the difficulty of constructing a roster around two dominant offensive players who can be borderline liabilities at times on the other end. The fact that they traded away their best defensive player (Dorian Finney-Smith) to acquire Irving didn’t help matters.

Harrison, head coach Jason Kidd, and owner Mark Cuban have all publicly stated they want to re-sign Irving. They also said they wanted to bring back Brunson last year (Cuban talked about having his Bird rights and being able to offer more money than a rival team), so those comments offer no guarantees. Whether they should retain Irving is a different question.

True, they gave up a lot to get him, and they don’t have an easy way to replace his salary slot. Losing him for nothing isn’t an option they can seriously consider. But do they really want to give him a five-year max contract worth a projected $272MM? I’d be shocked if they actually offer that, and would consider it organizational malpractice.

Based purely on his on-court value, there’s no question that Irving is a max player…when he actually plays. The problem is, he has only appeared in 70-plus games in three of his 12 seasons, missing extended time due to injuries and various off-court issues. The unwanted attention he brings off the court can’t be overlooked, nor can his mercurial, unpredictable nature.

He reportedly requested a trade from the Nets in part because they refused to offer him a full max extension. So even if the Mavs offer a three- or four-year max deal (which would align with Doncic’s contract), would he accept it? Who knows.

Let’s say he does accept a slightly shorter-term max deal. That would start at a projected $46.9MM next season, and the Mavs already have $103.6MM committed to eight players — $108.6MM if they guarantee the rest of Reggie Bullock‘s salary, which seems likely if he isn’t traded. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary contracts would push Dallas perilously close to the luxury tax apron in that scenario, and would remove the option of using the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

The Mavs would have to make a pretty significant cost-cutting move just to regain full access to those exceptions. But doing that would mean parting with one or more of their assets, and that cupboard is already scarce after the Kristaps Porzingis and Irving trades. Further depleting that pool would lessen the odds of improving the roster, and they’re desperately trying to win as soon as possible.

They control their own 2023 lottery pick (No. 10 overall) after tanking the last few games of ’22/23, but the only other first-rounder they can unconditionally trade right now is ’27, because their other picks are encumbered (they still owe the Knicks a top-10 protected first). Rival teams would be interested in Josh Green (who’s eligible for a rookie scale extension) and Jaden Hardy, but they’re the most interesting young players on the roster outside of Doncic.

Tim Hardaway Jr. has long been rumored as a trade candidate, but his contract ($34MM through ’24/25) has neutral value at best. Dallas would definitely have to give up assets to move off the $33MM it owes Davis Bertans over the next two seasons. Ditto, to a lesser extent, for JaVale McGee ($11.7MM through ’24/25). Maxi Kleber ($11MM each of the next three seasons) probably has positive value, although he didn’t quite look right after returning from a torn hamstring, and he’s also arguably the best defender left on the roster.

The Mavs will certainly be aggressive in trying to improve their defense and rebounding, which ranked last in the league. Another losing campaign runs the risk of Doncic requesting a trade, because the disappointing season clearly did not sit well with the young star. But it won’t be easy to build a contender with their limited available assets and some of the bad contracts already on the books.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Reggie Bullock ($5,038,400)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Bullock’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Total: $5,038,400

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall ($5,212,800)
  • Total: $5,212,800

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Irving, Powell, and Wood are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Melli and Wright remain on the Mavericks’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $958,529
    • Note: Expires on June 26.

Note: The Mavericks would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

May 20th, 2023 at 10:42am CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring CJ McCollum at the 2022 trade deadline, the Pelicans went on an impressive late-season run, earning a playoff spot with a pair of play-in tournament victories and then giving the top-ranked Suns a scare in the first round by pushing the series to six games.

With former No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson healthy to begin the 2022/23 season, there was optimism that New Orleans could make the leap to top-six playoff team and legitimate title contender. And as long as Williamson was on the court, that belief looked entirely warranted. Through the end of December, the Pelicans were 23-13, putting them in a tie for the No. 2 seed in the West, and their +4.8 net rating was the best in the conference.

Unfortunately, the Pelicans’ first game of 2023 was the last one of the season for Williamson, who suffered a hamstring injury that ultimately sidelined him for the remainder of the winter and spring. New Orleans went into a tailspin later in January, ultimately finishing the season on a 19-27 run and then losing a play-in game at home to the 10th-seeded Thunder.

While the Pelicans’ early-season success was encouraging, their reversal of fortunes once Williamson went down was a reminder that they don’t have enough talent to consistently win without him and that they can’t rely on him to stay on the court — he has played more than 29 games just once in his first four NBA seasons.

The Pelicans aren’t trading or waiving Williamson, so all they can really do with Zion is hope for better injury luck. But they can at least take matters into their own hands with the rest of the roster, seeking out upgrades that will allow them to remain more competitive when the star forward isn’t available.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

With nearly $144MM in guaranteed money committed to eight players, the Pelicans won’t have cap room this offseason. However, once they lock in low-cost team options and non-guaranteed salaries for players like Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Naji Marshall, they should remain comfortably below the luxury tax line, giving them the flexibility to go shopping in free agency using most of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

New Orleans also has a bevy of trade chips available to seek out roster upgrades. Even if the Pelicans aren’t inclined to move any of their valuable young role players – Jones, Alvarado, Dyson Daniels, and Trey Murphy – they control all their own future first-round picks, including a 2023 lottery pick (No. 14). They also own the Lakers’ 2024 first-rounder (unprotected, with the option to defer it to 2025), the Bucks’ unprotected 2027 pick, and swap rights with Milwaukee in 2024 and 2026. In other words, they have the draft assets necessary to build a strong trade package around picks rather than players.

As they evaluate potential targets free agency or via trade, the Pelicans will have to consider what their plans are at center. Jonas Valanciunas, who started all but three games for New Orleans this past season, will earn $15.4MM in 2023/24 on an expiring contract.

As effective as Valanciunas is as a scorer and rebounder, he’s not a switchable defender, and head coach Willie Green often turned to Larry Nance Jr. at center in crunch-time minutes during the second half of the ’22/23 season. If Valanciunas isn’t in New Orleans’ long-term plans, his contract makes him an ideal salary-matching piece in any major trade, since McCollum ($35.8MM), Brandon Ingram ($33.8MM), and Williamson ($33.5MM) almost certainly aren’t going anywhere.

Valanciunas’ salary, for instance, would be a logical match for Raptors forward OG Anunoby ($18.6MM), who has been repeatedly linked to a New Orleans team that could use another two-way wing. Toronto won’t necessarily be eager to reunite with Valanciunas if Jakob Poeltl re-signs, and I’d expect the Raptors to push for players over picks in any major trade, since they don’t control their own 2024 first-round pick. Still, Anunoby is the sort of player the Pelicans figure to target on the trade market — and they have the pieces to get him if they’re willing to be aggressive.

If Valanciunas is moved for an upgrade at another position, it would leave the Pelicans without an obvious starting center on the roster. Former lottery pick Jaxson Hayes will be eligible for restricted free agency and hasn’t shown in his four NBA seasons that he’s ready to step into a starting role. Even if they plan to lean more on players like Nance, Williamson, and Jones as small-ball fives, the Pels would need to address the center position in some form if they were to trade Valanciunas and let Hayes walk. The mid-level exception could come in handy in that regard.

Of course, there’s no guarantee the Pelicans will do anything significant on the trade market this summer. Re-signing Josh Richardson would help fortify the team’s wing depth, and the hope is that youngsters like Murphy, Daniels, and Jones will continue to get better. Internal improvement and a healthy season from Williamson could make New Orleans a contender even without any real outside additions — and it would give the organization an opportunity to take a longer look at which pieces fit best around Zion.

Until they see Williamson play something close to a full season though, it’s hard for the Pelicans to count on that happening. The time might be right for David Griffin and the front office to work on a contingency plan that boosts the floor of this roster, with the hope that a healthy Zion will take its ceiling to new heights.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Garrett Temple ($5,401,000)
    • Note: Temple’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jose Alvarado ($1,836,096)
  • Total: $7,237,096

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 14 overall ($4,246,200)
  • Total: $4,246,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Willy Hernangomez (veteran)
  • Brandon Ingram (veteran)
  • Herbert Jones (veteran)
  • Naji Marshall (veteran)
  • Garrett Temple (veteran)
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
  • Kira Lewis (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hernangomez and Jones would only become eligible if their team options are exercised. Valanciunas will become eligible on October 20, which will be right around the start of the regular season.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Pelicans’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Pelicans would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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Community Shootaround: Blazers’ Lottery Pick

May 19th, 2023 at 9:31pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Trail Blazers had some lottery luck, moving up to the No. 3 spot in the draft order on Tuesday.

That presents an interesting dilemma for Portland, which still seems desperate to quickly build a contender around Damian Lillard. The Blazers could use the pick as bait to acquire an All-Star level player or they could simply hold onto it and draft the best available player.

We all know what will the Spurs will do with the top pick – select potential superstar Victor Wembanyama. The Hornets hold the second slot and there’s no clear-cut selection after the French big man. If the Hornets go by need, they’d most likely take forward Brandon Miller rather than point guard Scoot Henderson, considering their best young player is LaMelo Ball.

Miller would also seem like a better fit for the Trail Blazers, since they already have a floor leader. There are other players worthy of consideration at the third spot, including Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker and Anthony Black.

Miller could immediately fill a void in the frontcourt if he’s still on the board at No. 3, as the Blazers’ small forward spot was in flux this season. Power forward Jerami Grant is headed to free agency and while Portland’s front office has stated it wants to re-sign Grant, there’s no guarantee he’ll be back.

Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons are signed through the 2025/26 season, though the Blazers must determine whether they’re truly part of the long term plan. Portland also has to decide whether to extend qualifying offers to Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish.

All of those personnel moves must be factored into their decision whether to trade the pick to get Lillard a proven star sidekick, or draft a player ready to make an impact.

Even though the free agent market isn’t dazzling, a lot of top talents such as Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Karl-Anthony Towns and Pascal Siakam could be on the trading block.

That brings us to today’s topic: Should the Trail Blazers keep the No. 3 overall pick in the draft or trade the pick as part of a package to get a proven veteran star?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

May 19th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

After winning between 22 and 31 games for four straight seasons from 2018-21, the Bulls took a major step forward in the first half of 2021/22, going 27-13 with offseason additions DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball playing key roles in their success. They were the No. 1 seed in the East on January 14 of last year.

Unfortunately, Ball tore his meniscus that day against Golden State, and hasn’t played a game since, having undergone three different knee surgeries to address persistent pain. Caruso dealt with multiple injuries of his own, and the Bulls weren’t the same team the rest of the way, going 19-23 to close out the season and getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.

Caruso was healthier in ’22/23, but Ball’s void was felt all season long, with Chicago going 40-42 and entering the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed. The Bulls were able to sneak past Toronto thanks to late-game heroics by Zach LaVine (after the Raptors went 18-of-36 on free throws and blew a 19-point lead), but fell in a close game to the Heat, who advanced as the No. 8 seed.

Chicago is a hard team to pin down. You would expect a club led by three offense-first multi-time All-Stars to be highly effective on that end, but after ranking 13th last season, they were just 24th in offensive rating in ’22/23. Similarly, you would not expect them to be stout defensively, yet after ranking 23rd a year ago, they had the fifth-best defense in the league this season.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

Chicago has a couple great players (LaVine and DeRozan), an All-Defensive First Team guard (Caruso), and some young talent. Still, it feels like the Bulls are stuck in no-man’s land.

A big part of that is due to Ball’s balky knee, and there’s still no timetable for his return – it’s possible his career could be over. It has been a brutal series of events, because Ball is a very good two-way player. The Bulls have gone just 59-65 since he was injured – a large sample size of blah play.

Having a $20.5MM cap hit on your books (and a $21.4MM player option for ‘24/25 that Ball will certainly exercise) for a player who might not play at all for a second consecutive season really hurts your team’s flexibility. It’s no one’s fault either. Sure, Ball had injuries in the past, but nothing like this.

The Nikola Vucevic trade was an unmitigated disaster, but the Bulls don’t have a viable way to replace the impending free agent’s production, so it feels like they need to extend him, re-sign him, or at least explore sign-and-trade scenarios. They can’t just lose him for nothing. He played well in 2022/23 after a down year in ’21/22, but he’s limited defensively and will be 33 years old at the start of next season.

That deal is why the Bulls don’t have a lottery pick in June’s draft — it landed 11th overall and will be sent to Orlando to complete the trade (they also gave up Wendell Carter and their 2021 first-round pick, which turned into Franz Wagner – ouch). Chicago also doesn’t control its second-rounder (via Denver) due to free agency gun-jumping when the team completed its sign-and-trade for Ball.

With nearly $112MM committed to just six players, and a couple of $3.4MM player options (Andre Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr.), becoming a cap room team doesn’t make sense. Even if Drummond and Jones opt out, the Bulls would only be able to create about $16MM in space. They would be better off re-signing some of their own free agents and using their $12.2MM non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but they can’t just bring back the same core roster again and expect different results.

DeRozan turns 34 years old this summer, is entering the final year of his contract, and will be eligible for a veteran extension. That makes him a logical trade candidate, but his age, expiring deal, subpar defense and well-documented playoff struggles somewhat limit his market value.

Don’t get me wrong, I have a ton of respect for DeRozan. You can tell he puts a ton of work into his craft, and he has improved tremendously throughout his career. I’m just not sure how much the Bulls could realistically get for him if they made him available – maybe a late lottery pick, matching salaries and a decent young player? That’s nothing to sneeze at, but it could take a while to translate into wins.

LaVine would have far more trade value. He’s only 28 and is under contract for four more years (the last year is a player option). The Knicks are a logical suitor, and reportedly talked to the Bulls about him ahead of the February deadline.

Do the Bulls want to trade the player they tried to build around? Do the Knicks want to trade multiple first-round picks and young players for a star who is a legitimately great shooter and scorer (they do need both of those things), but isn’t a great defender or decision-maker?

I don’t know the answer to either of those questions, but I do know Chicago’s current roster isn’t good enough to contend for a title and isn’t bad enough to land a top draft pick. The Bulls have to pick a path.

There’s nothing preventing the Bulls from trading both of their stars and starting from scratch. They could always prioritize young players instead of draft capital if they want to retool instead of doing a full-fledged rebuild. Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well – the defensive stalwart drew a lot of interest leading up to the trade deadline and is on a team-friendly contract through ‘24/25, so he’d have quite a bit of value.

Aside from the big-picture roster questions, forward Patrick Williams will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer. I’d be a little surprised if a deal gets done. While Williams has a lot of upside, he’s also been very inconsistent (which is normal for a young player). I suspect there might be a gap in what his agents are looking for and what the team wants to pay.

That said, I would not trade Williams if I were running the team. He could be special if he figures it out, and even if he doesn’t, he’d still be coveted due to his two-way skill set. I’d also re-sign Coby White, who’s a restricted free agent – I think he’ll get somewhere around the mid-level exception, and he’s improved from his first couple seasons.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Carlik Jones ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Jones would receive a partial guarantee ($250K) if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the 2023/24 regular season.
  • Marko Simonovic ($1,836,096)
    • Note: Simonovic’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7.
  • Total: $3,763,992

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonzo Ball (veteran)
  • Alex Caruso (veteran)
  • DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
  • Marko Simonovic (veteran)
  • Patrick Williams (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Bulls would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

May 18th, 2023 at 2:08pm CST by Rory Maher

The Magic have been the worst team in the NBA over the past decade, recording a 289-512 record in the last 10 seasons. They won fewer than 30 games in six of those campaigns, only finishing above .500 once (42-40), when they lost in the first round of the playoffs in 2018/19.

However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. For starters, Orlando exceeded external expectations in 2022/23, increasing its year-end win total from 22 to 34.

With two lottery picks in 2023 (sixth and 11th), an extra first-round pick via Denver in 2025, all of their own future firsts, and several extra seconds, the Magic have a nice haul of draft assets. They also have an impressive young core headlined by Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and standout sophomore Franz Wagner.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

If they really wanted to, the Magic could create nearly $60MM in cap room this summer if they choose not to guarantee any of their own salaries and renounce all of their free agents and cap holds (aside from the lottery picks). That’s highly unlikely though.

The far more realistic scenario is they’ll have somewhere in the range of $25-45MM in cap room, depending on what they do with Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac. Harris’ $13MM contract for next season is fully non-guaranteed, while Isaac — who has played just 11 games over the past three seasons — has a $17.4MM cap hit, of which only $7.6MM is guaranteed.

Markelle Fultz should be a lock to have his full $17MM salary for ‘23/24 guaranteed – he’s only owed $2MM as of now. The former first overall pick played a major role in the Magic turning their season around. After Orlando started 5-16 without him, Fultz appeared in 60 of the team’s 61 remaining games — the Magic had a 29-31 record in those 60 games, losing the lone contest he sat in April.

The young guard has been plagued by injuries throughout his six NBA seasons, only appearing in 191 total games. But he was productive when healthy in ‘22/23, averaging career highs in points (14.0), assists (5.7), rebounds (3.9), steals (1.5), and minutes per game (29.6), as well as field goal percentage (51.4%).

Fultz still struggles from long distance, converting just 31% of his three-pointers on low volume (1.5 attempts per game). However, he’s an explosive and crafty finisher around the rim, is quite accurate on mid-range jumpers (45.8%, which ranked in the 70th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com), and is a solid defensive player.

There are three reasons why I’m discussing Fultz so extensively. One, if the Magic guarantee his salary, he’ll be eligible for an extension. Two, his outside shooting woes affect the rest of the team, because it’s the biggest roster weakness. Three, it has been floated that Orlando might pursue a veteran point guard with its cap space, with Fred VanVleet being rumored as a target.

Is VanVleet a better player than Fultz right now? Yes. He’s a far more willing – and better – outside shooter than Fultz, even if he’s coming off a highly erratic campaign that saw him post a career-low 34.2% from beyond the arc. He’s also four years older and looked a half step slower on defense in ‘22/23.

VanVleet is rumored to be seeking a contract similar to what Jrue Holiday received a couple years ago, which was $135MM over four years (incentives increased the value a bit). I like VanVleet, and he has outplayed his current contract. But I don’t think he’s worth double Fultz’s salary, particularly with Cole Anthony eligible for a rookie scale extension and Jalen Suggs still having two years left on his rookie contract.

If I were running the Magic, I would rather let those young guards and the rest of the roster continue to develop, and look to add younger wing talent and shooting via the draft and less expensive free agent targets.

Some potential free agent names of interest: Austin Reaves (restricted), Cameron Johnson (restricted), Gary Trent Jr. (player option), Donte DiVincenzo (player option) and Max Strus (unrestricted). Johnson shares positional overlap at forward with Banchero and Wagner, but I don’t think that’s a big deal – he’s great at playing off the ball and is one of the best shooters on the market (the Magic have also shown a willingness to experiment with position-less lineups).

Orlando’s only real rotation player who’s a free agent is Moritz Wagner, who had a solid season as the backup center. The Magic have his Bird rights, so they won’t have to earmark cap room or an exception to re-sign him, assuming they want him back.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Markelle Fultz ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Fultz’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Gary Harris ($13,000,000)
    • Note: Harris’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jonathan Isaac ($9,800,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee.
  • Bol Bol ($2,200,000)
    • Note: Bol’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $40,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall ($7,137,840)
  • No. 11 overall ($4,952,160)
  • No. 36 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,090,000

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Markelle Fultz (veteran)
  • Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
  • Cole Anthony (rookie scale)
  • Chuma Okeke (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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Full 2023 NBA Draft Order

May 16th, 2023 at 10:23pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2023 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on June 23, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2023 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. San Antonio Spurs
  2. Charlotte Hornets
  3. Portland Trail Blazers
  4. Houston Rockets
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Indiana Pacers
  8. Washington Wizards
  9. Utah Jazz
  10. Dallas Mavericks
  11. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
  13. Toronto Raptors
  14. New Orleans Pelicans
  15. Atlanta Hawks
  16. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Miami Heat
  19. Golden State Warriors
  20. Houston Rockets (from Clippers)
  21. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  22. Brooklyn Nets
  23. Portland Trail Blazers (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Memphis Grizzlies
  26. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  27. Charlotte Hornets (from Nuggets)
  28. Utah Jazz (from Sixers)
  29. Indiana Pacers (from Celtics)
  30. Los Angeles Clippers (from Bucks)

Second Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Indiana Pacers (from Rockets)
  3. San Antonio Spurs
  4. Charlotte Hornets
  5. Boston Celtics (from Trail Blazers)
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Wizards)
  8. Sacramento Kings (from Pacers)
  9. Charlotte Hornets (from Jazz)
  10. Denver Nuggets (from Mavericks)
  11. Charlotte Hornets (from Thunder)
  12. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
  13. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  14. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  15. Memphis Grizzlies (from Timberwolves)
  16. Atlanta Hawks (from Pelicans)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Los Angeles Clippers
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Warriors)
  20. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  21. Brooklyn Nets
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  26. Memphis Grizzlies
  27. Chicago Bulls (from Nuggets)
  28. Philadelphia 76ers
  29. Washington Wizards (from Celtics)
  30. Milwaukee Bucks
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 16th, 2023 at 2:49pm CST by Rory Maher

The Wizards haven’t had a 50-win season since 1978/79, when they lost in the NBA Finals after winning the title the year before. In fact, they’ve only won more than 45 games twice over the lengthy period since then — both in the mid-2010s when John Wall-led teams made the Eastern Conference Semifinals a few times.

Things went about as expected in ’22/23. Washington’s over/under entering the season was 35.5 wins, and the team won exactly 35 for the second consecutive season.

There were some positive developments — Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis had career years, while Corey Kispert turned into a solid rotation player in year two — but they were mostly offset by disappointments in other areas. Bradley Beal was plagued by injuries for the second straight season and lottery pick Johnny Davis spent most of his rookie season in the G League, struggling when he did get NBA minutes.

The Wizards, who finished 22nd in the league in offense and 21st in defense, don’t really have an identity on either end of the court (they were 21st in offense and 25th in defense in ‘21/22).

Where the Wizards go from here is an open question. They don’t have the types of young players teams typically build around, nor the cache of future draft picks (they actually owe a protected first to the Knicks). Getting lucky in the draft lottery would be a good start – the Wizards have the eighth-best odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 28.9% chance at a top-four selection.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

What many league observers think the Wizards should do and what they actually do are often at odds. Maybe that will change when the team hires a new head of basketball operations after firing Tommy Sheppard.

Either way, it’s an important offseason for the Wizards. Kuzma has already said he plans to turn down his $13MM player option to secure a larger payday. Will Porzingis decline his $36MM option as well? Perhaps. There were reportedly “serious” talks regarding an extension a couple months ago, but that was before the front office change. It’s impossible to know how a new regime would feel about that.

Porzingis had an outstanding season, making a positive impact on both sides of the ball. He’s only 27 years old, so he’s theoretically in his prime. He has also missed extended time due to injuries throughout his career. Re-signing him is a risk, but Washington doesn’t have a ready-made replacement on its roster.

If both players decline their options and the Wizards renounce their other free agents and cap holds (except their first-round pick), they’d have about $30MM in cap room to work with. I don’t see which players they could target with that money that would be better than Kuzma and Porzingis. A sign-and-trade involving one (or both) theoretically could work if Washington wants reshuffle the deck.

Former first-round pick Deni Avdija will be eligible for a rookie scale extension as well. He has a good feel for the game and is a solid defender, but his jump shot is very erratic. Trading Rui Hachimura freed up playing time for Avdija, and he played well down the stretch. Still, it’s hard to envision any rush to extend him unless it’s a team-friendly rate.

Perhaps the biggest question facing the Wizards hasn’t changed: Is Beal a star worth building around? There are multiple seasons worth of evidence indicating the answer is no.

The issue is that he’s coming off two injury-riddled seasons and still has four years and more than $200MM left on his contract — his value is arguably at its lowest point in years. Washington would likely get pennies on the dollar in return for the veteran guard unless they find a team that thinks Beal would push it over the hump.

Would Philadelphia be interested in a Beal for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris trade? Harris’ deal is expiring and Maxey is going to command a significant payday soon, as he’s about to enter the final season of his rookie deal. Is that enough of a return for Beal?

For some inexplicable reason, the Wizards gave Beal a full no-trade clause when he signed his contract last summer, a rarity in the NBA. So even if they find a suitable deal, he’d still have to approve it.

Locking in an expensive long-term core of Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis isn’t going to move the needle toward winning in any meaningful way. They’re all good players individually, but not good enough to be a top-three trio on a serious contender.

There are players with positive value on the roster, though they’re not going to return a haul of assets. Monte Morris and Delon Wright are quality backups that lots of teams would like to have, for example, and they’re entering the final years of their contracts.

There are no easy answers for this team. Owner Ted Leonsis hasn’t shown any appetite for a temporary tank despite the mediocre product of the past handful of years. The foundation is rickety, and the Wizards haven’t had success drafting in the 9-15 range over that span.

I don’t envy the person who takes over the front office of this franchise. Things can change quickly in the NBA, but it’s hard to see how the Wizards get significantly better without getting even worse than they have been lately.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jordan Goodwin ($1,627,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Goodwin’s partial guarantee increases to $963,948 if he isn’t waived on or before September 1.
  • Total: $1,627,896

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 8 overall ($5,969,400)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 42 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 41 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  • No. 57 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,969,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kristaps Porzingis (veteran)
  • Kyle Kuzma (veteran)
  • Monte Morris (veteran)
  • Isaiah Todd (veteran)
  • Deni Avdija (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $6,263,188

Note: The Wizards would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Wizards go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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