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Community Shootaround: Timberwolves’ Offseason

May 4th, 2023 at 4:21pm CST by Rory Maher

After trading away several first-round picks (including center Walker Kessler, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting) to acquire Rudy Gobert last summer , the Timberwolves don’t have many ways to improve the roster going forward. They only have one draft pick in 2023, at No. 53 overall.

With huge contracts committed to Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, the only realistic pathway to drastically reshape the roster would seemingly be to trade Towns. The problem is he was limited to 29 regular season games after a severe calf strain, and he struggled in the playoffs for the second straight year, posting 10 assists against 18 turnovers while shooting 25% on threes in Minnesota’s first-round loss to Denver.

The Wolves still seem intent on keeping the two big men together, with head coach Chris Finch expressing optimism about the pairing after Game 5. Let’s say they retain both players and build out the roster with their limited available resources. There are plenty of other important decisions to be made this summer.

For starters, Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (RFA), Austin Rivers, Nathan Knight ($1,997,238 team option), Luka Garza (two-way) and Matt Ryan (two-way) are all possible free agents, while Mike Conley, Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin have either partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed contracts for 2023/24.

Of that large group, Conley and Prince are likely to return, as both were important contributors. But Conley will be 36 years old when next season starts and is on an expiring contract, so finding a long-term solution at point guard will be a priority.

The Wolves have talked about wanting to re-sign or extend Reid, but he may be looking for a bigger opportunity in his first free agency foray. Alexander-Walker has expressed a desire to be back after providing impressive defense down the stretch.

The future of everyone else mentioned is very much up in the air. And with lucrative rookie scale extensions for Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels likely to be signed this offseason, the cap sheet for ’24/25 and beyond is looking pretty messy.

We want to know what you think. What should the Timberwolves do this offseason to build around Edwards? Which of their free agents should they re-sign, and which should they let go? Head to the comments section to share your thoughts.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

May 4th, 2023 at 8:00am CST by Rory Maher

From 1998 to 2019, the Spurs made the playoffs for 22 consecutive seasons, including 19 campaigns with 50-plus wins (in 1998/99, they went 37-13 due to a lockout – a 61-win pace – and went on to win the championship). From 2020-22, the Spurs went 32-39, 33-39 and 34-48, missing the postseason each time.

Trading Derrick White to Boston at the 2022 trade deadline was the first signal that San Antonio was entertaining a full-on rebuild. Dealing Dejounte Murray to Atlanta last summer further cemented that plan, and the Spurs wound up trading two more veterans on expiring deals – Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson – at February’s deadline.

The Spurs finished this season 22-60, tied for the second-worst record in the league with Houston. The last time they finished with a record that poor was in ’96/97, when they won the draft lottery and selected Tim Duncan first overall, which led to five championships and the aforementioned playoff streak.

If the plan was to do a short-term tank while (hopefully) developing young players, ’22/23 was the season to do it. San Antonio will be hoping to cash in on its 14% odds and land another potential generational talent in French phenom Victor Wembanyama.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:

Considering they finished 29th in offense and 30th in defense with the worst net rating in the league (a brutal minus-9.9), it’s safe to say the Spurs need help wherever they can find it. A star to build around would be a great place to start, but they’ll almost certainly have to hope that will come via the draft or through internal development.

San Antonio has long been known as one of the most inscrutable organizations in the NBA. Predicting what the team will do in the offseason is a fool’s errand, but I’ll give it my best shot.

There are likely several young players the Spurs will have little to no interest in trading. Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are in that group, with Sochan probably the closest to untouchable on the roster.

The Spurs have a history of coming to agreements on rookie scale extensions, and I think the odds are pretty high that Vassell will get a new deal after averaging 18.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.6 APG and 1.1 SPG on .439/.387/.780 shooting in his third season (he was limited to 38 games due to left knee surgery).

Youngsters Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley and Charles Bassey all need time to develop. I expect them all to be on the roster to start next season.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the Spurs gauge the trade values of Doug McDermott and Devonte’ Graham, but I don’t expect there to be a ton of interest – they’re fine role players, but their contracts probably have neutral value at best. Khem Birch’s NBA future is up in the air due to lingering knee problems, but his contract is also expiring, so they’ll likely just live with his $7MM-ish cap hit in ‘23/24 and hope he gets healthy enough to resume his career (waiving him outright to clear a roster spot is another viable option).

Zach Collins’ $7.7MM salary is a lock to be guaranteed, as longtime head coach Gregg Popovich has already said he would be the starting center entering next season. Injuries have plagued Collins throughout his six-year career, but he’s still only 25 years old and played well in ’22/23.

I expect Tre Jones, a restricted free agent, to be back next season, though I don’t have a great feel for what type of contract he might receive – he has plenty of desirable traits, but he’s a small point guard who doesn’t shoot threes well, making his market value tricky to gauge. I’m less optimistic about Romeo Langford returning unless he takes a discount – his qualifying offer isn’t team-friendly, so he’ll probably become an unrestricted free agent.

As for the other impending free agents, I wouldn’t be surprised if both two-way players (Dominick Barlow, Julian Champagnie) are retained one way or another, but it could go either way with the remaining three (Sandro Mamukelashvili, Keita Bates-Diop, Gorgui Dieng).

Assuming they guarantee Collins’ salary, re-sign Jones at a starting salary of $11MM (just a rough estimate), select No. 3 overall like their placeholder cap hold, and renounce their other free agents, the Spurs will have approximately $29MM to spend on free agents, plus the $7.6MM room exception.

I don’t expect them to go after any of the marquee names in free agency given the state of their rebuild, but some second-tier guys like Max Strus or P.J. Washington might be worth watching (Washington will be restricted if given a qualifying offer, as expected). They could also add assets by taking on unwanted salaries from rival clubs, like they did during ’22/23.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall ($9,625,800)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 32 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: This pick could be No. 33 instead if the Spurs pick earlier than Houston in the first round.
  • No. 44 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $9,625,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Khem Birch (veteran)
  • Zach Collins (veteran)
  • Devonte’ Graham (veteran)
  • Doug McDermott (veteran)
  • Devin Vassell (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

May 2nd, 2023 at 3:03pm CST by Rory Maher

It’s hard to say 2022/23 was anything but a disappointment for the Pistons, who finished with the worst record in the NBA at 17-65 after entering the season hoping to make a push for the play-in tournament.

Injuries certainly played a role in that – 2021 No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham was limited to just 12 games due to a shin injury, which required surgery. Still, it’s not as though they were lighting the world on fire to start the season with Cunningham healthy – they went 3-9 in the games he played, including six lopsided losses.

The Pistons had two separate losing streaks of 11 games and nine other losing streaks ranging between three and seven games. They managed consecutive victories only one time in ’22/23. It marked the fourth consecutive season in which Detroit has won fewer than 24 games.

Part of the problem with being bad every year, drafting early in the lottery, and trying to develop young players is that most rookies are not good NBA players. Some develop into winning players in the following years; some never do. The Pistons need more players on their roster to take significant steps forward in ‘23/24.

That’s not to say this past season was a total lost cause. Both of Detroit’s lottery picks – Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren – showed encouraging signs of progress, and the team can land no lower than No. 5 overall in June’s draft.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan:

Hiring a new head coach is the first order of business after Dwane Casey moved to a front office role. Charles Lee, Kevin Ollie and Jarron Collins are considered frontrunners for the job, though the Pistons reportedly plan to take their time in evaluating their options.

Getting lucky in the draft again would obviously be beneficial – Victor Wembanyama is considered the best prospect since LeBron James was selected in 20 years ago. However, even if the Pistons do land Wembanyama, there are still question marks up and down the roster.

Ivey and Cunningham appear secure as the two starting guards, but they’re inexperienced and neither has proven to be a great shooter yet. They’ve also been turnover prone, which is normal for young guards.

Former No. 7 overall pick Killian Hayes had a 14-game stretch from mid-November to mid-December when people ignored his previous shooting woes and thought he was turning the corner, as he shot 41.0% from three. He wound up shooting 24.7% from deep over his remaining 46 games, struggling mightily to score from inside the arc as well.

I like Hayes’ defense and he improved as a play-maker and decision-maker in year three, but unless he drastically improves as a scorer, it’s hard to see him ever having positive value – his 45.5% true shooting percentage was the worst mark in the NBA. I definitely don’t see him getting a rookie scale extension in the offseason.

Duren seems like the center of the future, but the frontcourt is already chock full of young players like Isaiah Stewart, James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley III.

On one hand, you could argue that having a couple of former No. 2 overall picks in Wiseman and Bagley was a worthwhile gamble on their talent, despite disappointing tenures with their former teams. On the other, neither has shown the ability to consistently set solid screens, stretch the floor, or play defense, and there are only so many minutes to go around.

Stewart may not be a household name to non-Pistons fans, but he made progress with his outside shot and is a solid defensive player. As with Wiseman, he’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer – I suspect Stewart is more likely to receive a new deal, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they wait on both players.

After trading Saddiq Bey for Wiseman, Detroit has Bojan Bogdanovic and Isaiah Livers at forward, with Alec Burks splitting minutes between the two and three. Bogdanovic and Burks were involved in a lot of trade rumors heading into the February deadline, but the Pistons wound up keeping them both. I didn’t mind that decision, because having productive veterans on an otherwise extremely young team is important.

In terms of the club’s own free agents (or potential free agents), Burks and Livers are essentially locks to have their club options exercised, but as James L. Edwards III of The Athletic recently predicted, it wouldn’t be surprising if none of the remaining players (Hamidou Diallo, Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, R.J. Hampton, Eugene Omoruyi) return.

Diallo can’t shoot, but he’s an elite athlete and finisher who really improved on defense. I think he’ll get a multiyear contract from someone. The other players are probably looking at minimum-salary, partially guaranteed, or non-guaranteed contracts for various reasons.

The Pistons need more shooting and defense at basically every position, and they’ll have options to improve. Assuming they pick up their options on Burks and Livers and renounce all their other cap holds, they’ll have $107.4MM committed to 11 players, including Dewayne Dedmon’s dead money hit (he was previously waived and stretched) and the cap hold for the incoming top-five pick.

Where that pick lands will determine exactly how much cap room they’ll have available – if it’s  No. 1 overall, they’d have about $26.6MM to spend on free agents, based on the latest projections for next season’s salary cap. If it falls to No. 5 – and there’s a 47.9% chance that it will – then they’d have another $4MM+ in cap room.

Wherever the pick lands, that’s enough money to add at least one impact veteran. Former Pistons forward Jerami Grant, whom the team traded to Portland last offseason, has been floated as one possibility for the cap room – he’ll be an unrestricted free agent if he doesn’t sign an extension with the Blazers. Detroit will also have the room mid-level exception available, which increased in value in the new CBA – it can now run up to three years and is projected to start at about $7.6MM.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall ($11,979,960)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 31 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,979,960

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Alec Burks (veteran)
  • Isaiah Livers (veteran)
  • James Wiseman (rookie scale)
  • Killian Hayes (rookie scale)
  • Isaiah Stewart (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Burks and Livers would only become eligible if their team options are exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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Players Eligible For Rookie Scale Extensions In 2023

April 22nd, 2023 at 10:00am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s 2023/24 league year begins this summer, players eligible for free agency will be able to begin negotiating and reaching contract agreements with suitors. In addition to those free agents, another group of players will also become eligible to sign new deals.

For players who are entering the fourth and final year of their rookie scale contracts, the first day of the new league year (July 1) is the first day they can agree to rookie scale extensions. Those players, who were almost all 2020 first-round selections, will have until the day before the 2023/24 regular season starts to finalize long-term agreements with their current teams.

Players eligible for rookie scale extensions can sign new deals that run for up to five years, with those contracts taking effect beginning in 2024/25. If they don’t sign extensions during the coming offseason, those players will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2024.

Eleven players who were eligible for rookie scale extensions during the 2022 offseason signed new deals. That number tied a record set a year earlier, and continued a recent trend — we’ve seen an uptick in rookie extensions during the last few offseasons as more teams look to lock up their promising young players in advance of free agency.

We should expect several more rookie scale extensions to be signed between July and October of this year.

Here are the players who will be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions during the 2023 offseason:

The following players were selected in the first round of the 2020 draft along with the players listed above. However, they aren’t eligible for rookie scale extensions this year for the reasons noted:

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NBA Team Option Decisions For 2023/24

April 21st, 2023 at 12:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Having already created a space to track this offseason’s player option decisions, we’re turning our attention today to team options. Over the next couple months, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the team options for 2023/24, making note of whether they’re exercised or declined.

True team options are different than non-guaranteed salaries, which aren’t listed in the space below. Non-guaranteed salaries are less restrictive and provide a little more flexibility than team options, which clubs must act upon by a specific date (June 29) each year.

However, team options can be useful at the end of a contract, since turning down that option allows the team to retain some form of Bird rights on the player — waiving a player with a non-guaranteed salary doesn’t present that same opportunity. Additionally, a handful of contracts still don’t become fully guaranteed once an option is picked up, giving teams an extra level of flexibility.

The list below doesn’t include rookie scale team options for 2023/24, since those third- and fourth-year options function differently than team options on standard veteran contracts. Those ’23/24 rookie scale team option decisions were made during the 2022 offseason, and can be found here.

The standard team options for 2023/24 are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the fall to note the latest decisions as they’re reported and/or announced.

Unless otherwise indicated, a player’s salary will become guaranteed once his team option is exercised.

Boston Celtics

Cleveland Cavaliers

Detroit Pistons

Houston Rockets

Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies

Minnesota Timberwolves

New Orleans Pelicans

New York Knicks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando Magic

Phoenix Suns

Portland Trail Blazers

Sacramento Kings

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Players Likely To Get Rookie Scale Max Extensions In 2023

April 19th, 2023 at 11:06am CST by Rory Maher

The 2020 NBA draft was a strange one for a number of reasons. It wasn’t viewed as the strongest class by scouts and analysts, and there was no consensus top overall pick. The COVID-19 pandemic also (understandably) made it much more difficult for teams to scout and interview players due to travel restrictions.

Rookies from the class were also negatively impacted, as they were drafted in November and the 2020/21 season started one month later, with shortened training camps. Normally rookies have up to four months to spend with their new teams, including summer league and full training camps. The truncated offseason put all players behind the curve, but the ones without NBA experience were hit hardest.

It’s fair to say the 2020 class has been relatively disappointing overall to this point, especially some of the players drafted in the top 10.

However, there are still some excellent players who were selected in the first round, and I believe three of them are basically locks to receive maximum-salary rookie scale extensions at the beginning of July (the new contracts will kick in starting in ‘24/25). They all have areas they need to improve on, but the potential and production are there.

The top candidates

Anthony Edwards, G/F, Timberwolves

After spending much of his first two seasons playing small forward, Edwards primarily played shooting guard in 2022/23 and had a career year, averaging 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals on .459/.369/.756 shooting in 79 regular season games (36.0 MPG). The top overall pick of 2020 was named an All-Star for the first time this season.

Edwards has been durable, has improved nearly across the board in each of his three seasons, is arguably the best athlete in the class, and is only 21 years old. The fact that the Wolves were able to stay afloat with Karl-Anthony Towns missing most of the season is a testament to Edwards’ growth, and there’s still plenty of room for improvement.

LaMelo Ball, G, Hornets

The 2020/21 Rookie of the Year was an All-Star in year two after averaging 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 1.6 steals on .429/.389/.872 shooting in 75 games (32.3 MPG). Ball, the third overall pick in 2020, followed that up by averaging 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.3 steals on .411/.376/.836 shooting in ’22/23.

The problem was, Ball sustained multiple left ankle sprains and then fractured his right ankle on a non-contact play at the end of February, which limited him to 36 games this season.

I highly doubt those ankle injuries will impact his next contract, though they are a little worrisome. It’s possible the Hornets might push for some type of protections on the deal, but I’d be a little surprised — Ball played 75 games in ‘21/22.

Tyrese Haliburton, G, Pacers

Several draft analysts had Haliburton high on their boards, but he wound up falling to the Kings at No. 12 overall. He played very well in his stint with Sacramento, but his fit with fellow point guard De’Aaron Fox was less than perfect, particularly defensively, and the Kings memorably traded him in February 2022 for a package headlined by big man Domantas Sabonis.

The deal has worked out well for both teams. Haliburton thrived as a full-time point guard for the Pacers to end last season, and he was outstanding in 2022/23, making his first All-Star appearance while averaging 20.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists and 1.6 steals on a sparkling .490/.400/.871 shooting line in 56 games (33.6 MPG).

Advanced stats nearly universally say Haliburton has been the top player from his class through three seasons. His efficiency and excellent decision-making stand out.

The 23-year-old only averaged 2.5 turnovers per game this season, good for a 4.15-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio – an excellent mark. Indiana went 28-28 with him in the lineup, versus 7-19 without him.

The borderline candidates

Two other first-round picks from 2020 are likely to receive massive extension offers this summer, but I’m not sure if they’ll get the full max – I could see it going either way.

Tyrese Maxey, G, Sixers

Given his relatively modest numbers as a rookie, Maxey’s enormous leap in ‘21/22 was pretty surprising (and impressive). He averaged 17.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists on .485/.427/.866 shooting in 75 games (35.3 MPG) in his second NBA season. The former 21st overall pick had a strong playoff showing as well, averaging 20.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists on .484/.377/.940 shooting in 12 games (40.4 MPG).

Maxey maintained his great outside shooting this season, averaging 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists on .481/.434/.845 shooting in 60 games (33.6 MPG).

Still just 22 years old, Maxey is electric with the ball in his hands and is one of the fastest players in the league, making him a terror in transition. While he rarely turns the ball over, he’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard at this time, frequently looking to score instead of distribute.

However, he’s only 6’2″, so he can realistically only defend point guards, and he doesn’t have great instincts on that end. Most of the players listed here need to work on becoming more consistent defenders, but the other players have size advantages and are better at making plays both on and off the ball defensively.

The new CBA allows players eligible for rookie scale extensions to sign five-year deals – they were previously limited to four-year contracts. With that in mind, I think Maxey is highly likely to receive an offer in the range of $160-170MM over five years, but I’d be mildly surprised if he gets the full projected $200MM+ due to his limitations as a play-maker and defender (whether he accepts less than a max deal is another story).

Desmond Bane, G/F, Grizzlies

A four-year college player out of TCU, Bane was the last pick of the first round in 2020. He had a quality rookie season, mostly off the bench, averaging 9.2 points and 3.1 rebounds on .469/.432/.816 shooting in 68 games (17 starts, 22.3 MPG).

Like Maxey, Bane emerged as one of the most improved players in the league last season, averaging 18.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.2 steals on .461/.436/.903 shooting in 76 games (29.8 MPG). He was even better in ‘22/23, putting up 21.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.4 APG and 1.0 SPG on .479/.408/.883 shooting in 58 games (31.7 MPG).

From a statistical standpoint, the 24-year-old has a legitimate argument for getting a max deal. He’s an elite shooter and is a solid play-maker and defender.

My only real questions as far as a max deal are: Can Bane be one of the best players on a championship-level team? Is he good enough at creating his own shot? I did view Memphis as a legitimate contender this year until Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke went down with injuries.

Bane is already an excellent player who has shown consistent improvement year over year. Every team in the league would love to have him. I’m just not totally sold on a full max, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets it, and it’s hard to say he hasn’t earned it.

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NBA Player Option Decisions For 2023/24

April 19th, 2023 at 10:09am CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the last year of his deal and finish out his contract or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

Several factors play a part in a player’s option decision. The value of the option salary is obviously crucial, as is the player’s performance in the season leading up to his decision.

The state of the NBA’s salary cap also often becomes a necessary consideration for players weighing their decisions. If the salary cap is projected to increase only modestly, or if not many teams around the league project to have cap room, a player may be more inclined to take the guaranteed money rather than trying his luck on the open market.

This year’s player options are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the spring and early summer to note the latest decisions as they’re reported or announced.

While some players may face earlier deadlines, all option decisions must be finalized by June 29.

Boston Celtics

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

Golden State Warriors

Miami Heat

Milwaukee Bucks

New York Knicks

Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto Raptors

Utah Jazz

Washington Wizards

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2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 17th, 2023 at 4:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the fifth time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]

The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck was especially meaningful in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.

The lottery results in 2021 and 2022 featured fewer surprises, though the seventh team in the lottery standings did move up to No. 4 in both years, allowing the Raptors to nab Scottie Barnes in 2021 and the Kings to select Keegan Murray in 2022.

Perhaps, after a couple relatively by-the-numbers lottery outcomes in a row, we’ll see a more significant shake-up in 2023. This year’s draft lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 16.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2023 are listed in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Pistons‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
HOU 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
SAS 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
CHA 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
POR 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
ORL 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
IND 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.9 – – 19.7 35.6 12.9 1.4 >0 – – –
WSH 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 – – – 32.9 31.1 6.6 0.4 >0 – –
UTH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
DAL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
CHI 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 – – – – – – 77.6 13.5 0.4 >0
OKC 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 – – – – – – – 85.2 6.7 0.1
TOR 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
NOP 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

Notes:

  • The Mavericks‘ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it lands outside the top 10.
  • The Bulls‘ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside the top four.

The full pre-lottery 2023 draft order can be found right here.

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2023 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

April 17th, 2023 at 4:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2023. While we’ll have to wait until the May 16 draft lottery to learn the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 58 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2023 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air — for example, Chicago’s first-round pick could still technically end up with either the Bulls or Magic, while the Celtics‘, Pacers‘, and Thunder‘s exact second-round picks have yet to be locked in.

[RELATED: 2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds]

The second-round draft order for teams with identical regular season records is the inverse of their first-round order. This rule applies even when one club made the playoffs and one didn’t. For instance, the 42-40 Timberwolves will pick ahead of the 42-40 Pelicans in the second round (though neither team still controls its pick).

We’ll provided an updated list after the May 16 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2023 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons (14.0%)
  2. Houston Rockets (14.0%)
  3. San Antonio Spurs (14.0%)
  4. Charlotte Hornets (12.5%)
  5. Portland Trail Blazers (10.5%)
  6. Orlando Magic (9.0%)
  7. Indiana Pacers (6.8%)
  8. Washington Wizards (6.7%)
  9. Utah Jazz (4.5%)
  10. Dallas Mavericks (3.0%)
    • Note: The Knicks will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10.
  11. Orlando Magic (from Bulls) (1.8%)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four.
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (1.7%)
  13. Toronto Raptors (1.0%)
  14. New Orleans Pelicans (0.5%)
  15. Atlanta Hawks
  16. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Miami Heat
  19. Golden State Warriors
  20. Houston Rockets (from Clippers)
  21. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  22. Brooklyn Nets
  23. Portland Trail Blazers (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Memphis Grizzlies
  26. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  27. Charlotte Hornets (from Nuggets)
  28. Utah Jazz (from Sixers)
  29. Indiana Pacers (from Celtics)
  30. Los Angeles Clippers (from Bucks)

Second Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. San Antonio Spurs
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 33 if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  3. Boston Celtics (from Rockets)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 32 and would be sent to the Pacers if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  4. Charlotte Hornets
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Trail Blazers)
    • Note: This pick would be sent to the Celtics if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Wizards)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 38 if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  8. Sacramento Kings (from Pacers)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 37 if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  9. Charlotte Hornets (from Jazz)
  10. Denver Nuggets (from Mavericks)
  11. Charlotte Hornets (from Thunder)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 42 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  12. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 41 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  13. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  14. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  15. Memphis Grizzlies (from Timberwolves)
  16. Atlanta Hawks (from Pelicans)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Los Angeles Clippers
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Warriors)
  20. Indiana Pacers (from Heat)
    • Note: This pick would be sent to the Thunder if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  21. Brooklyn Nets
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  26. Memphis Grizzlies
  27. Chicago Bulls (from Nuggets)
  28. Philadelphia 76ers
  29. Washington Wizards (from Celtics)
  30. Milwaukee Bucks
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2023 NBA Head Coaching Search Tracker

April 16th, 2023 at 12:21pm CST by Luke Adams

With another regular season in the books, multiple teams around the NBA are making head coaching changes in advance of the 2023/24 campaign.

In the space below, we’ll provide regular updates on the head coaching searches for each club that has yet to give anyone the permanent title. Some of these searches could extend well into the offseason, so be sure to check back often for the latest updates.

You’ll be able to access this page anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu.

Updated 6-10-23 (7:49pm CT)

Active Searches

None

Completed Searches

Detroit Pistons

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:
    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
    • Former Overtime Elite coach Kevin Ollie (story)
    • Pelicans assistant Jarron Collins (story)
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin (story)
    • Nets assistant Brian Keefe (story)
    • Pistons assistant Rex Kalamian (story)
    • Pistons assistant Jerome Allen (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:

The Pistons went just 121-263 (.315) in five years with Casey at the helm, but his transition to a front office role was framed as his decision rather than the team’s. Casey, 66 in April, may prefer a less hands-on position as he nears retirement age.

Following Casey’s move to an executive role, the Pistons reportedly narrowed their coaching search to Ollie, Collins, and Lee, then didn’t make a decision for weeks. During that time, Williams was let go by the Suns and it became clear that he immediately moved to the top of Detroit’s wish list, supplanting the other three finalists.

Williams rebuffed the Pistons’ initial advances, indicating that he planned to take a year off, but he ultimately relented and agreed to a record-setting six-year, $78.5MM contract to become the Pistons’ new head coach.

After Casey guided the Pistons through the most challenging years of their rebuild, Williams will be tasked with turning the roster from a collection of promising young pieces into a team capable of making it back to the postseason.

Houston Rockets

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Also interviewed/considered:

    • Former Lakers coach Frank Vogel (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin (story)
    • Sixers assistant Sam Cassell (story)
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Former Hornets coach James Borrego (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Raptors coach Nick Nurse (story)
    • Trail Blazers assistant Scott Brooks (story)

Silas signed up to coach a team led by veteran stars James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but both players were gone 10 games into his first season in Houston. The first-time head coach ended up presiding over a full-scale rebuild — no NBA team posted a worse record during Silas’ three years with the franchise than the Rockets’ 59-177 mark.

After some reports indicated that Houston would be seeking a more experienced candidate this time around, the Rockets seriously considered veteran head coaches like Vogel and Borrego before landing on Udoka, who led the Celtics to the NBA Finals in his first and only season as an NBA head coach in 2021/22.

Udoka’s tenure with Boston ended abruptly after he engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate within the organization. The Rockets presumably did their due diligence on that incident and determined they were comfortable with hiring Udoka, whose on-court résumé is strong. He reportedly signed a four-year, $28.5MM contract and will be tasked with turning a raw Rockets team made up of promising young pieces into a more coherent whole capable of making the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (story)
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Former Hornets coach James Borrego (story)
    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
    • Trail Blazers assistant Scott Brooks (story)
    • Former Warriors coach Mark Jackson (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • University of Houston coach Kelvin Sampson (story)
    • Wizards assistant Joseph Blair (story)
    • Paris Basketball coach Will Weaver (story)
    • Former Lakers coach Frank Vogel (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Former Suns coach Monty Williams (story)
    • Clippers coach Tyronn Lue (story)

The NBA is a “what have you done for me lately?” sort of league, so the fact that Budenholzer led the Bucks to a title in 2021 and to the NBA’s best regular season record in 2022/23 was essentially negated by the team’s embarrassing first-round playoff exit this spring. As a result, Milwaukee opted to move on from the veteran head coach, who still had two years left on his contract.

Following an extensive search, the Bucks narrowed their options to three finalists: Griffin, Atkinson, and Nurse. Two of those candidates had prior head coaching experience, but Milwaukee opted to hire the one that didn’t, landing on Griffin, a veteran assistant who has worked for five teams over the last 15 years. He’s reportedly receiving a multiyear deal worth about $4MM annually.

This Bucks roster, headed by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, still looks capable of contending for championships. The organization – including Antetokounmpo, who gave Griffin his endorsement – is rolling the dice on a first-time NBA head coach helping the team once again reach those heights.

Philadelphia 76ers

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Former Lakers coach Frank Vogel (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer (story)
    • Former Suns coach Monty Williams (story)
    • Former Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni (story)
    • Sixers assistant Sam Cassell (story)

The Sixers posted an impressive 154-82 (.653) regular season record during Rivers’ three years in Philadelphia, but the team’s inability to make a deep playoff run reflected poorly on the veteran coach, who had similar issues in Los Angeles with the Clippers. The 76ers were eliminated in the second round in three consecutive years, losing home games to end their season in 2021 and 2022 and then getting blown out in a Game 7 in 2023.

With Joel Embiid locked up for years to come, the Sixers have a franchise player to build around, but they could make some significant changes around Embiid this offseason, with James Harden a candidate to depart in free agency and Tobias Harris likely to end up back on the trade block.

Nurse, who led the division-rival Raptors to a championship in his first year as head coach in 2018/19, will be tasked with getting Embiid to the conference finals (at least) for the first time in his career. Nurse was reportedly a finalist for the head coaching jobs in Milwaukee and Phoenix before agreeing to join the Sixers.

Phoenix Suns

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:
    • Former Sixers coach Doc Rivers (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez (story)
    • Former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (hired by Sixers)
  • Also interviewed/considered:

    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Grizzlies assistant Darko Rajakovic (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Clippers coach Tyronn Lue (story)

Williams helped reshape the culture in Phoenix over the last several seasons, leading the Suns to the NBA Finals in 2021 and earning Coach of the Year honors in 2022. However, after suffering embarrassing blowout home losses to end their playoff runs in both 2022 and 2023, the Suns decided to make a change.

Phoenix initially narrowed its search to five finalists before choosing Vogel, who has won a title and will be coaching his fourth NBA team. Given his experience and his résumé, Vogel should command the respect of veteran stars like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker as he tries to get the team over the hump in 2023/24 and beyond.

Vogel’s deal with the Suns will reportedly be worth $31MM over five years.

Toronto Raptors

  • New coach:
    • Darko Rajakovic (story)
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:

    • Virtus Bologna coach Sergio Scariolo (story)
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Nuggets assistant David Adelman (story)
    • ESPN analyst JJ Redick (story)
    • Former Nets coach Steve Nash (story)
    • Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin (hired by Bucks)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Barcelona coach Sarunas Jasikevicius (story)
    • Suns assistant Patrick Mutombo (story)
    • Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse (story)
    • Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon (story)
    • Former Suns coach Monty Williams (hired by Pistons)
    • Former Celtics coach Ime Udoka (hired by Rockets)

Head coach Nick Nurse told reporters on March 31 that he would take some time after the season to evaluate his future. The Raptors took the same approach and eventually announced nine days after their season ended that they were relieving Nurse of his duties.

Toronto exercised extreme patience with its head coaching search and was the last team to make a decision this spring — word of Nurse’s dismissal broke on April 21, while Rajakovic was reported as the team’s choice of replacement on June 10, over a month-and-a-half later.

Nurse won a championship and a Coach of the Year award in separate seasons during his five-year stint as the Raptors’ head coach, so Rajakovic has big shoes to fill as a first-time NBA head coach. His résumé includes head coaching stints in Europe and in the G League, along with a decade as an NBA assistant, so he certainly seems qualified for his new role.

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