Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Eastern Conference’s First Round Playoff Series

With the play-in tournament complete and the playoff field set, the NBA’s postseason will begin in earnest on Saturday. Since three of Saturday’s four games are Eastern Conference matchups, we’re zeroing in on those first round series this morning before shifting our focus to the West later today.

Here are the four first round series in the East:


Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

This series holds a little more intrigue than the typical No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup. The Heat won the most games in the Eastern Conference in 2021/22 and nearly made it to the NBA Finals last spring. This year’s team isn’t much different from that one, even if its in-season results were a lot less impressive. A group led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo certainly won’t roll over in the playoffs.

Still, the Bucks were one of the NBA’s most dominant teams in the regular season, winning a league-high 58 games. And despite some injury question marks, they’re the deeper, more talented team in this matchup. This series may not be a repeat of Milwaukee’s four-game sweep of Miami in round one of the 2021 playoffs en route to a Bucks championship, but there’s a reason why Giannis Antetokounmpo are massive betting favorites (-1200, per BetOnline.ag).


Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

The Celtics will enter their first round series as even bigger betting favorites (-1300) than the Bucks. Boston’s +6.7 net rating on the season was the NBA’s best mark by a comfortable margin, whereas Atlanta has spent much of the season looking like a league-average team, finishing the year at 41-41 (with a +0.1 net rating) before winning a play-in game over Miami.

The Celtics’ No. 2 overall defense should be capable of slowing down the Hawks‘ star backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray; it remains to be seen whether Atlanta will have any answer at the other end of the court for Boston’s star wings, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. A Hawks upset isn’t impossible, but it looks like a real long shot, barring injuries.


Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

While the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are often significant favorites in NBA playoff series, it’s unusual for a No. 3 team to be as heavily favored as the Sixers are over the Nets (-1200). The odds make sense though — Philadelphia had the NBA’s third-best record, trailing only two Eastern powerhouses. And Brooklyn likely wouldn’t have finished as high as sixth in the East if not for the first-half contributions of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who are no longer on the roster.

The new-look Nets, led by Mikal Bridges, were competitive down the stretch, but they went just 13-15 after the trade deadline. The 76ers, meanwhile, followed up a 12-12 start to the season by winning 42 of their last 58 games, and they’ll be at full strength in the playoffs — stars Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey are all healthy after missing between 16 and 24 games apiece during the regular season.


Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Now we’re talking. The rest of the Eastern Conference series are viewed as pretty one-sided, but the Cavaliers and Knicks is something a little closer to a toss-up. Cleveland is a -190 betting favorite, per BetOnline.ag, while New York is at +165 to win the series.

On paper, there are plenty of reasons to back the Cavaliers. Their +5.6 net rating ranked No. 2 in the NBA, buoyed by a league-best 109.9 defensive rating. And Donovan Mitchell is the sort of battle-tested scorer a team wants on its roster in the postseason.

On the other hand, besides Mitchell, Cleveland’s top players lack postseason experience. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley will be appearing in their first playoff game on Saturday, and Jarrett Allen didn’t advance beyond the first round in two brief postseason appearances in Brooklyn. These Knicks are well coached and have the East’s best offense (120.4 rating) since the calendar flipped to 2023.

The status of Julius Randle‘s left ankle could be significant — it sounds like he’s aiming to return for Game 1 on Saturday, but he hasn’t played since spraining the ankle on March 29 and likely isn’t back to 100% yet.

Post-Play-In Update On Draft Order, Lottery Standings

As we explained on Sunday night following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2022/23 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2023 draft order one step closer to being officially set.

Here’s what we know now…


Lottery teams

Despite some upsets on Tuesday and Wednesday, the results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.

The Hawks and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Milwaukee, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Timberwolves locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Memphis and Denver, respectively.

As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
HOU* 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
SAS* 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
CHA 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2
POR 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
ORL 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1
WSH* 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.9 19.7 35.6 12.9 1.4 >0
IND* 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 32.9 31.1 6.6 0.4 >0
UTH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0
DAL 3 3.3 3.6 4 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
OKC* 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 77.6 13.5 0.4 >0
CHI* 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 85.2 6.7 0.1
TOR 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 92.9 3.3
NOP 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 97.6

Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it’s outside the top 10; the Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it’s outside the top four.

A series of tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.

The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:

  1. Houston Rockets / San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
  2. Washington Wizards / Indiana Pacers (35-47)
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder / Chicago Bulls (40-42)

For instance, if the Spurs win their tiebreaker with the Rockets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 6 in the lottery, while Houston could slide as far as No. 7.

Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 7 and No. 11.


Playoff teams

Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:

  1. Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
  2. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
    • Note: Pick traded to Jazz.
  3. Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
  4. Miami Heat / Los Angeles Clippers / Golden State Warriors (44-38)
    • Note: A tiebreaker will be required to determine the order of the Nos. 18-20 picks.
    • Note: Clippers’ pick traded to Rockets.

In addition to the tiebreaker required for the Heat, Clippers, and Warriors at No. 18, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:

  1. Brooklyn Nets / Phoenix Suns (45-37)
    • Note: Suns’ pick traded to Nets.
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
    • Note: Cavaliers’ pick traded to Pacers.

No random tiebreakers will be required for the following clubs. They finished the regular season with identical records, but one made the playoffs and one didn’t, so the lottery team will pick higher in round one and the playoff team will get the higher pick in round two:

  • New Orleans Pelicans / Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
  • Toronto Raptors / Atlanta Hawks (41-41)

The six random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted by the NBA on Monday, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2023 draft.

Key 2023 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

With the 2022/23 NBA regular season in the books, 12 teams have shifted their focus to the offseason and others will soon follow suit.

That means it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the ’22/23 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months.

Outlined below is a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines for the next few months, right up until training camps open for the 2023/24 season.

Note: We may adjust, add, or remove items from this list if there are date/deadline changes related to the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement.


April 23

  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59 pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

May 13-14

  • NBA G League Elite Camp for draft prospects.

May 15-21

  • NBA draft combine.

May 16

May 31

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59 pm CT).

June 1

  • NBA Finals begin.

June 12

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00 pm CT).

June 18

  • Latest possible end date for NBA Finals.

June 22

  • NBA draft day.

June 29

  • Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options
    • Note: Certain contracts will require earlier decisions.
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

June 30

July 1

  • Official start of the 2023/24 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.
  • Teams can begin exercising the third- or fourth-year team options for 2024/25 on rookie scale contracts.

July 6

  • Moratorium period ends (11:01 am CT)
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades (11:01 am CT).
  • The 24-hour period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins (11:01 am CT).

July 7-17

  • Las Vegas Summer League.

July 13

  • Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

August 31

  • Last day for teams to waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2023/24 salaries.

September 5

  • Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned second-round picks; those players become free agents on September 6 if not tendered.

Late September (specific dates TBA)

  • Training camps open.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and NBA.com were used in the creation of this post.

Poll: Friday’s NBA Play-In Games

This is only the third year that the NBA’s play-in tournament has existed in its current form, so it’s not as if there’s a lengthy play-in history to help contextualize this year’s results. Still, the results through the first four games have been unprecedented.

Coming into this year, no No. 7 seed had ever lost a play-in game — Miami became the first team to do so on Tuesday.

Coming into this year, no No. 10 seed had ever won a play-in game — Chicago and Oklahoma City both achieved this feat on Wednesday.

With three upsets in four games, the play-in results haven’t been easy to forecast. Only 11.55% of our poll respondents picked Atlanta and the Lakers to win on Tuesday, and the success rate wasn’t a whole lot better on Wednesday, with 17.88% of voters taking Chicago and Oklahoma City.

Will Friday’s games continue to produce unexpected results, or will the favorites bear down and advance to the first round of the playoffs?

In the East, where the winner will advance to face Milwaukee in round one, the Heat are six-point favorites at home against the Bulls, according to BetOnline.ag.

But Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss and has played inconsistent basketball for much of the season, while Chicago has played some of its best ball since adding Patrick Beverley on the buyout market in February. It’s also worth noting that the Heat went 0-3 vs. the Bulls during the season and were outscored by 32 points in those games.

Out West, the upstart Thunder will visit Minnesota as 5.5-point underdogs against the Timberwolves, with the winner on track to face top-seeded Denver.

The Wolves entered the season last fall with aspirations of making a deep playoff run, while Oklahoma City seemed more focus on player development than making the postseason. But the acclimation of Rudy Gobert in Minnesota hasn’t gone as smoothly as the front office hoped, while rising Thunder stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey are providing a preview of a bright future in OKC.

Entering Friday’s game, the vibes certainly seem better on the Thunder’s side, where no one has punched a wall or a teammate lately (as far as we know, anyway). And perhaps the fact that no one expected them to be here will help the Thunder play freer and more confidently than the Timberwolves, whose season would be considered an even bigger disappointment if they can’t secure a playoff berth.

We want to know what you think. Are we in for more upsets on Friday, or will the higher-seed Heat and Timberwolves claim the NBA’s last two available playoff spots?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

Final Round-Up Of 2022/23 In-Season Trades

We covered 11 of the significant in-season deals of 2022/23 in our trade breakdown series. Here’s a rundown of the six other trades that occurred in January and February.


Noah Vonleh salary dump

On January 5:

  • The Spurs acquired Noah Vonleh and cash ($1.5MM)
  • The Celtics acquired the Spurs’ 2024 second-round pick (top-54 protected)

Entering 2022/23, the Spurs were one of two teams with a significant amount of cap room available, making them a prime target for salary dumps. That’s all this trade boiled down to for the Celtics.

By trading Vonleh before his salary became guaranteed, the Celtics not only removed his $1.16MM cap hit and saved $7.15MM toward their luxury tax bill, but they also freed up a roster spot. It also minimized the amount of cash they had to send out to make the deal – if they had waited a few more days, Vonleh’s cap hit would have increased to $1,836,090, which is the standard amount for all veterans on one-year, minimum-salary contracts.

The Celtics still technically paid Vonleh all but two days of the prorated minimum salary he received this season — the Spurs paid the final two days after acquiring and waiving him. Removing him from the books was purely about the financial impact, as he was a deep-bench reserve who seldom played (in 23 games, he averaged just 7.4 minutes per contest).

Boston also created a traded player exception equivalent to Vonleh’s salary since it didn’t receive a player in return.

Vonleh did not catch on with another team after the trade and the 27-year-old big man will still be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

The pick the Spurs sent out is extremely unlikely to convey — they just had to send something back in return. They also waived – and later re-signed – center Gorgui Dieng as part of this trade, which moved them marginally closer to the salary cap floor.

Essentially, they net gained about $339K in cash as part of the deal and were able to keep Dieng around as a veteran leader after he cleared waivers .


Dewayne Dedmon salary dump

On February 7:

  • The Spurs acquired Dewayne Dedmon and the Heat’s 2028 second-round pick
  • The Heat acquired cash ($110K).

Another salary dump, this time for the Heat. Dedmon had fallen out of Miami’s rotation – he had been dealing with plantar fasciitis, and was suspended one game for a sideline incident that saw him swat a Theragun (a massage device) onto the court out of anger after being subbed out.

Removing Dedmon’s $4.7MM cap hit gave the Heat the financial flexibility to sign a couple of frontcourt reinforcements — Kevin Love and Cody Zeller — while still remaining below the luxury tax line. They already had one open roster spot and removing Dedmon freed up a second, so they didn’t have to release anyone to add the two veterans.

As with Boston, Miami also generated a TPE equal to Dedmon’s salary since the team didn’t acquire a player in return.

As previously mentioned, the Spurs had ample cap room available and used more of it to add and then waive Dedmon (who signed with the Sixers but rarely plays), acquiring a second-round pick in the process. They only sent out $110K to complete the transaction, which is the minimum amount a team can send or receive in a trade in ‘22/23.


Kessler Edwards salary dump

On February 7:

Another minor trade, this time a salary dump for the Nets. The primary difference is the Kings actually kept Edwards instead of immediately waiving him.

Brooklyn saved about $8MM in salary and luxury tax payments by moving Edwards, a 2021 second-round pick out of Pepperdine. He showed some promise as a rookie, but only played 27 minutes for the Nets this season.

As a second-year player on a minimum-salary contract, Edwards is earning $1,637,966 in ‘22/23. That’s the amount of the TPE the Nets created in this deal. Michineau is currently playing in Italy and every year he remains overseas, he’s less likely to ever be brought stateside.

Still just 22 years old, Edwards has been a rotation member over the past month for Sacramento, averaging 3.9 points and 2.0 rebounds on .435/.349/.769 shooting in 22 games (13.9 minutes). The Kings will have a $1.93MM team option on Edwards for ‘23/24 if they want to bring him back – considering he was getting rotation minutes down the stretch, I’d be mildly surprised if they don’t exercise it.


Rockets/Hawks four-player deal

On February 9:

This trade (understandably) flew under the radar a bit due to all the blockbusters on deadline day, but it was pretty interesting for both sides because it was more complicated than it appears on the surface.

For example, the Hawks were able to treat this as essentially three separate trades rolled into one. They acquired Mathews with an existing TPE, did a simultaneous trade of Kaminsky for Fernando, and then a non-simultaneous trade of Holiday, which allowed them to create a new mid-sized outstanding trade exception of $6,292,440, equal to Holiday’s outgoing cap charge.

Both Mathews (26) and Fernando (24) are young and have played some solid basketball across their four NBA seasons, and their contracts are affordable. However, neither played much for the Hawks, and their salaries are non-guaranteed for ’23/24, so it’s certainly not a given that they’ll be back next season.

The primary purpose of the deal was to clear enough salary cap space to remain below the luxury tax line. Atlanta used that extra breathing room to acquire Saddiq Bey – a third-year forward who has become a key bench contributor – with a separate trade exception.

The Rockets could not complete this as a straight two-for-two simultaneous trade, as the amount of incoming money from Holiday and Kaminsky was greater than 175% of Mathews’ and Fernando’s salaries (plus $100K). Instead, they treated it as a simultaneous trade for Holiday and used the minimum salary exception to acquire Kaminsky.

Houston’s primary motivation was to acquire the two second-round picks from the Thunder, which Atlanta controlled from a previous trade. OKC is on an upward trajectory, so it’s hard to say where those picks might land, but it was solid value for taking on about $4MM in added salary.

The Rockets reportedly had interest in retaining both veterans, but Holiday wound up seeking a buyout and caught on with the Mavericks. Both Holiday and Kaminsky will be unrestricted free agents this summer.


Mike Muscala to Boston

On February 9:

  • The Celtics acquired Mike Muscala
  • The Thunder acquired Justin Jackson, a 2023 second-round pick and Boston’s 2029 second-round pick

A classic win-now move from a championship contender, which Boston certainly is. A long-range shooting specialist, Muscala has shot a combined 40.8% from deep over the past two seasons, averaging 6.9 PPG and 3.1 RPG in 14.5 MPG over that span (106 games).

Adding another big man shooter allows the Celtics to play a five-out system to maximize floor spacing for drives, kick-outs, and swinging the ball around to find the open man. He’s also on a relatively affordable $3.5MM contract with an identical team option for ‘23/24 – it’s important to find value on the cheap for any team, but particularly taxpayers like Boston.

You could say this deal is sort of connected to the aforementioned salary dump of Vonleh, since the Celtics added about $6.4MM to their tax bill by swapping out Jackson’s minimum-salary contract for Muscala. The Celtics had to use a trade exception left over from last year’s trade deadline to acquire him, as Jackson’s cap hit wasn’t large enough to match his incoming salary (they also created another small trade exception equivalent to Jackson’s salary).

While Muscala is far from a defensive stopper, his teams have actually been better on that end with him on the court in each of the past three seasons. The 31-year-old is not a rim protector nor a great rebounder, so those numbers may be a little noisy due to primarily playing against reserves.

The Thunder added Jackson (and then immediately waived him) using the minimum salary exception, generating a new trade exception equivalent to Muscala’s $3.5MM salary. They also added a couple of second-round picks, which is solid value given Muscala’s modest role — as the youngest team in the league, it’s not like Muscala was in OKC’s long-term plans, even if he was a steady veteran presence who contributed on the court as well.

Interestingly, the 2023 second-rounder heading to OKC is still up in the air and won’t be determined until next month’s draft lottery, because the Rockets finished the season tied with the Spurs for the NBA’s second-worst record – whichever team selects earlier in the lottery will have the less favorable second-round pick.

If Houston’s second-round pick lands at No. 32, the Thunder will receive the Heat’s second-rounder (via Boston), but if it lands at No. 33, OKC will receive Portland’s second-rounder (via Boston).

There’s a substantial difference in value between those two second-rounders – the Blazers’ pick will land at No. 35, while the Heat’s will be between Nos. 48-50 (pending the results of a three-team tiebreaker). Clearly, the Thunder will be hoping that Houston drafts ahead of San Antonio in the first round, though I’m sure they’d rather not see either of their conference rivals land the No. 1 overall pick and the chance to select Victor Wembanyama.


Mason Plumlee to the Clippers

On February 9:

Another relatively modest win-now deal, this time for the Clippers, who had been looking for reliable center depth leading up to the deadline and found it in Plumlee, a 10-year veteran who was surprisingly having the best season of his career for Charlotte at age 32.

In 56 games with the Hornets, all starts, he posted career highs in several categories, including field-goal percentage (66.9%), points (12.2), rebounds (9.7), assists (3.7) and minutes per game (28.5). His playing time has dipped since he joined the Clippers, which is understandable because he’s playing behind Ivica Zubac – he averaged 7.5 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 23 games (four starts, 19.9 minutes).

Plumlee’s expiring salary made him a natural trade candidate, particularly since the Hornets have drafted multiple centers in the past few years and had a disappointing 2022/23 season due in part to off-court issues and injuries. Jackson was reportedly a positive locker-room presence, but he was struggling for the second straight season and the Clippers only had to give up one second-rounder and some cash to complete the deal.

Plumlee has some limitations (he’s a non-shooter and a below-average defender), but he plays hard, sets solid screens, and generally is in the right spots. The Clippers will have his Bird rights if they want to re-sign him this summer.

L.A. also generated a small ($2,134,843) trade exception as part of the deal, which was the difference in Jackson’s ($11,215,260) and Plumlee’s ($9,080,417) salaries. While the Clippers did save some money here, they actually added to their tax bill with their other trades (acquiring Bones Hyland and Eric Gordon in separate deals).

One rumor leading up to the deadline indicated the Hornets were looking for a first-round pick for Plumlee, but I didn’t view that as realistic – he’s mostly been a backup, and while his contract isn’t unreasonable, it’s also expiring, so he could be a rental player. They also received some cash as part of the deal to help offset the aforementioned salary differences.

Jackson subsequently reached a buyout and signed with Denver, so clearly the primary motivation for Charlotte was extracting whatever draft capital it could in return for Plumlee. I’m sure giving the team’s young centers more minutes was a motivating factor as well, but president of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak said after the deadline that he was concerned about having so many free agents due to the uncertainty of what it will take to re-sign them.

The Hornets gave backup center Nick Richards a three-year, $15MM extension last month, so both he and rookie starter Mark Williams will be under team control for at least three more seasons.

Revisiting 2022/23 NBA Over/Under Predictions

Before the 2022/23 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (55.5 wins) to the Thunder (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the sixth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in ’21/22. Will that winning streak carry over to ’22/23? Let’s check in on the results and find out…


Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (Under 55.5 wins): (57-25)
  • Brooklyn Nets (Under 51.5 wins):  (45-37)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Over 50.5 wins):  (54-28)
  • Toronto Raptors (Over 46.5 wins):  (41-41)
  • New York Knicks (Under 40.5 wins): (47-35)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 52.5 wins): (58-24)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Over 47.5 wins):  (51-31)
  • Chicago Bulls (Over 44.5 wins):  (40-42)
  • Detroit Pistons (Over 28.5 wins):  (17-65)
  • Indiana Pacers (Under 23.5 wins):  (35-47)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (Under 50.5 wins): (44-38)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Over 46.5 wins): (41-41)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Under 36.5 wins): (27-55)
  • Washington Wizards (Under 35.5 wins): (35-47)
  • Orlando Magic (Over 26.5 wins): (34-48)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on teams like the Knicks, Pistons, and Pacers contributed to losing records in the Atlantic and Central, but our readers salvaged an above-.500 overall mark in the East by nearly sweeping the Southeast — only a disappointing showing from the Hawks prevented a 5-0 record in that division.


Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (Over 51.5 wins): (53-29)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 49.5 wins):  (42-40)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Under 40.5 wins): (33-49)
  • Utah Jazz (Under 25.5 wins):  (37-45)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 22.5 wins): (40-42)

Pacific:

  • Golden State Warriors (Over 53.5 wins):  (44-38)
  • Phoenix Suns (Over 53.5 wins):  (45-37)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Over 52.5 wins):  (44-38)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (Under 45.5 wins):  (43-39)
  • Sacramento Kings (Over 34.5 wins):  (48-34)

Southwest:

  • Memphis Grizzlies (Over 49.5 wins):  (51-31)
  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins):  (38-44)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Over 44.5 wins):  (42-40)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 24.5 wins):  (22-60)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Under 23.5 wins):  (22-60)

Western Conference record: 8-7

The parity in the West this season didn’t help our voters. Even though the Warriors, Suns, and Clippers were among the top six teams in the conference, for instance, they all fell well short of their projected win totals. Even the Nuggets and Grizzlies, the West’s top two teams, only narrowly beat their projections, as our readers predicted.

Despite a handful of big messes in the West, including on the Timberwolves, Jazz, and Mavericks, our voters eked out a winning record in the conference with some nice calls on the overachieving Kings and Thunder and the tanking Rockets, Spurs, and Trail Blazers, among others.


Overall record: 16-14

For the third season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s a legitimate winning streak!

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Poll: Wednesday’s NBA Play-In Games

In each of the first two years after the NBA introduced the play-in tournament in its current form in 2021, the No. 7 seeds defeated the No. 8 seeds — the Lakers and Celtics won at home in 2021, and the Timberwolves and Nets followed suit in 2022.

So history was made on Tuesday night, when the Heat became the first No. 7 seed to lose a play-in game, falling at home to the No. 8 Hawks. As a result, Atlanta will face the second-seeded Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, while Miami will get another chance to secure a playoff berth at home on Friday.

In Tuesday’s late game, the Lakers nearly followed Miami’s lead, falling behind by double digits to Minnesota. But Los Angeles’ defense keyed a comeback and the Lakers ultimately prevailed in overtime, clinching the No. 7 playoff spot and a first-round date with Memphis. The Wolves will return to Minnesota to host Friday’s play-in game for the right to face Denver.

The Heat’s and Timberwolves’ play-in opponents will be determined on Wednesday, starting in the East, where the No. 9 Raptors will host the No. 10 Bulls at 7:00 pm Eastern time.

Both Toronto and Chicago underachieved relative to their expectations this year after finishing among the East’s top six teams a year ago. While neither team was fully healthy – Lonzo Ball‘s season-long absence, in particular, hurt the Bulls – it’s hard to blame injury luck for their lack of success.

Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes all appeared in at least 67 games and logged at least 2,386 minutes, while DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic played at least 74 games and 2,682 minutes apiece. None of those players are on the injury report today, so Wednesday’s matchup will feature two relatively healthy clubs looking to salvage disappointing seasons.

The Raptors will enter Wednesday’s game as 5.5-point favorites, according to BetOnline.ag. They went 27-14 at home this season and have taken a step forward since acquiring Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline. Toronto has a 15-11 record with a +3.0 net rating since Poeltl’s debut, and its new starting lineup (Poeltl, Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby, and Barnes) has a +9.5 net rating in 313 minutes together.

But the Bulls seemingly acquired their own missing piece in February, when they signed Patrick Beverley on the buyout market. Since Beverley’s debut on February 24, Chicago has a 14-9 record and a +5.7 net rating (third-best in the NBA). The Bulls’ new go-to starting lineup (Beverley, DeRozan, LaVine, Vucevic, and Alex Caruso) has outperformed Toronto’s new group, posting a +14.7 net rating across 267 minutes.

Over in the West, the No. 10 Thunder will battle the No. 9 Pelicans for the right to travel to Minnesota on Friday.

Widely viewed as one of the NBA’s worst teams entering the season, the Thunder have exceeded expectations due in large part to the contributions of All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, breakout rookie Jalen Williams, and second-year guard Josh Giddey.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, had aspirations of a top-four seed in the fall and were a much better team when they had Zion Williamson available. They’ve looked average since the former No. 1 pick went down with a hamstring injury, recording a modest +0.2 net rating when Williamson isn’t on the court this season.

Both teams could find reasons for optimism in the results of their four-game regular season series. The Pelicans went 3-1 in those contests, including a pair of wins without Williamson available. On the other hand, Gilgeous-Alexander had a 44-point night against New Orleans and all three of OKC’s losses came by four points or less, so the Thunder actually outscored the Pelicans on the season.

The Pelicans’ home court advantage (they were 27-14 in New Orleans) helps make them 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday, per BetOnline.ag.

We got one upset on Tuesday. Will we get one or two more today? We want to know what you think. Make your play-in picks in the poll below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Breakdown: Clippers/Nuggets/Lakers/Magic Deal

This is the 11th entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a four-team deal between the Clippers, Nuggets, Lakers and Magic.


Trade details

On February 9:

  • The Clippers acquired Bones Hyland.
  • The Nuggets acquired Thomas Bryant.
  • The Lakers acquired Mohamed Bamba, Davon Reed, the Clippers’ 2024 second-round pick, and the Clippers’ 2025 second-round pick.
  • The Magic acquired Patrick Beverley, the Nuggets’ 2024 second-round pick, and cash ($2MM; from Lakers).
  • Note: Both the Nuggets and the Lakers created a couple of small traded player exceptions as part of this deal, which can be found right here.

The Clippers’ perspective:

February’s trade deadline was unusual in that it featured several transactions that were originally reported as being between two teams, but were eventually folded into four-team deals.

For the Clippers, this transaction was very straightforward. They dealt away their 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to Denver and used a traded player exception to acquire Hyland, a second-year guard. That was the end of it for them.

The Nuggets flipped those two second-rounders — plus Reed and their own ’24 second — to the Lakers for Bryant. The Lakers then rerouted Denver’s second and Beverley to Orlando for Bamba. Three separate trades were folded into one because it made sense to do so.

The Clippers finished the regular season ranked 17th in the league on offense, and Hyland is a talented microwave-type offensive player – he can get hot in a hurry. He provides some flair and unpredictability to an offense that can be a little bland and stagnant at times.

When the deal was made, I was skeptical that the second-year guard would actually receive meaningful minutes, and that turned out to be accurate, at least initially. He only appeared in five of his first 14 games with the Clippers, averaging 7.0 PPG and 3.6 RPG on .297/.278/.800 shooting in 14.2 MPG.

The primary reason for that is Hyland is a combo guard whose size (he’s listed at 6’2″ and 169 pounds) makes it difficult to play him as anything but a point defensively. No matter where you play him on that end, he’s prone to making mistakes both on and off the ball.

However, injuries to Norman Powell (left shoulder subluxation) and Paul George (knee sprain) created an opening for Hyland, and he finished the season as a regular contributor off the bench, averaging 12.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 4.3 APG on .440/.375/.700 shooting in nine games (21.6 MPG).

Hyland’s immaturity (he left Denver’s bench out of frustration in the fourth quarter of a Jan. 22 game against the Thunder), defensive lapses, and displeasure with his role were reportedly factors in the Nuggets looking to move the former first-round pick. I’m sure Hyland shoving Mason Plumlee in the regular season finale raised a few eyebrows within the Clippers organization, even if it was a relatively minor incident.

Still, despite his flaws, adding a 22-year-old with some real offensive talent on a cheap, controllable contract through at least 2024/25 for just a couple of second-round picks was a worthwhile gamble for the Clippers. Even if it doesn’t work out in the long run, the cost was relatively low.


The Nuggets’ perspective:

When I write these trade breakdown articles, I treat it as a thought exercise where I try to put myself in the position of the respective teams’ front office. Of course I rely on reports and public statements as well, but NBA decision-makers aren’t always forthcoming with the media, which is understandable.

I try to be as objective as I can, which is challenging — I don’t necessarily personally agree with what I’m writing at times, and it’s hard to prevent my opinions from slipping through.

The reason I waited so long to write about this particular trade is I really didn’t like it from Denver’s perspective, and I still don’t.

Moving on from Hyland for a couple of second-round picks was reasonable enough; I’m sure the Nuggets did their due diligence, and that’s what his market value was. All the trade rumors coming out about how motivated they were to move him certainly did not help on that front.

My issue was that they rerouted those second-rounders and included one of their own to add a player on an expiring minimum-salary contract who doesn’t fit well on the roster. It’s not that Bryant is a bad player, he just doesn’t make sense on the Nuggets.

Part of the reason Denver’s bench has struggled so much all season long is because of the team’s reliance on Nikola Jokic. What he does on the court is impossible to replicate, particularly offensively – he’s the most efficient high-volume scorer in the league, unguardable one-on-one in the post, and one of the best passers in league history.

That reliance has proven to be a double-edged sword, as they lack an identity without him. His on/off numbers are staggering: plus-12.5 with him, and minus-10.4 without, a net difference of 22.9 points per 100 possessions. Every reserve has very poor on/off numbers.

Bryant has a lot of positive qualities. He hustles for loose balls, competes, sprints down the floor and is a skilled offensive player who can really shoot for a center, though his three-point percentages are somewhat misleading, as it’s low volume.

LeBron James and Russell Westbrook were very good at setting him up quality looks, and Bryant was highly efficient at converting them. He averaged 12.1 PPG and 6.8 RPG on .654/.440/.741 shooting in 41 games with the Lakers (25 starts, 21.4 MPG).

However, he is much more of a finisher as opposed to someone who can create for himself and others, and the Nuggets don’t really have anyone who can reliably feed him in the pick-and-roll. Head coach Michael Malone has been playing Jamal Murray with the second unit lately after abandoning the Reggie Jackson experiment, but they’re both score-first point guards. Bruce Brown isn’t a natural point either.

Bryant is a limited defensive player who – like Jokic – doesn’t protect the rim, and he also doesn’t possess Jokic’s basketball IQ or quick hands to be disruptive. He tries, but Bryant doesn’t move very well laterally and he’s on the small side for a center.

Long story short, Bryant’s skill set doesn’t fit well with Denver because he doesn’t have anyone who can reliably set him up on offense, and while he is a solid rebounder, he is an overall poor defensive player. It’s just a bad mix.

At the end of March, Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports asked Malone (Twitter video link) why he thought Bryant hasn’t been able to find a rhythm with the Nuggets.

No idea. I can’t answer it. Maybe ask him that,” Malone replied.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement. It was also a little strange considering Bryant isn’t the first backup center who has been productive on other teams and struggled in Denver over the past few seasons, joining JaVale McGee and Isaiah Hartenstein. That tells me the coaches deserve some blame for failing to utilize those players as well.

In 18 games with Denver, Bryant has averaged 4.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .485/.444/.722 shooting in just 11.4 MPG. He has been buried on the depth chart behind Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan since Malone made those comments.

I really liked some of the moves the Nuggets made over the past year, including trading for (and extending) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, signing Brown, and drafting Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. All are players who filled roster needs.

As I said, I understand trading Hyland if he was causing problems in the locker room, and if that was the end of it, that would have been fine. But flipping those two second-rounders and including an additional one to acquire Bryant – who almost certainly won’t be retained – was a poor decision, in my opinion.


The Magic’s perspective:

It’s hard to say that Bamba’s tenure with the Magic was anything but a disappointment. He was selected No. 6 overall in the 2018 draft, ahead of players like Wendell Carter Jr., Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Michael Porter Jr., Kevin Huerter, Robert Williams and Jalen Brunson, among several others.

Bamba dealt with injuries and never seemed to gain former coach Steve Clifford’s trust in his first three seasons, as he averaged just 15.3 minutes per game in 155 games from 2018-2001. He averaged 6.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 1.3 BPG on .471/.325/.646 shooting over that same span.

You could say being behind All-Star center Nikola Vucevic was partly to blame, but there were times when Bamba was outplayed by Khem Birch and Moritz Wagner as well. Draft status doesn’t mean much if you aren’t contributing at a high level.

After Orlando traded Vucevic and hired Jamahl Mosley to be the new head coach, Bamba emerged as the team’s starting center in 2021/22, which was the fourth and final season of his rookie scale contract. He averaged 10.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG and 1.7 BPG on .480/.381/.781 shooting in 71 games (25.7 MPG), re-signing with the Magic on a two-year, $20.6MM deal, though only his ’22/23 salary is guaranteed.

Bamba played alongside Carter in the frontcourt last season after Orlando acquired the former Duke big man as part of the Vucevic deal. However, the Magic landed the No. 1 overall pick last June and selected Paolo Banchero, a skilled power forward, which moved Carter up to center and put Bamba back on the bench.

The 24-year-old was mostly outplayed by Wagner again this season once the German big man returned from injury, burying Bamba further on the depth chart. The short-lived return of Jonathan Isaac, who later went down with season-ending adductor surgery, also likely played a factor in Orlando’s willingness to move Bamba.

The Magic gave Bamba opportunities — things just didn’t work out. He’s on a pseudo-expiring contract (non-guaranteed $10.3MM salary for ‘23/24), essentially making him a rental player.

It turns out he didn’t have a ton of league-wide value, which is why Orlando only got a second-round pick back. Taking on some additional salary in the form of Beverley didn’t affect the Magic’s cap situation, as they’re well below the luxury tax (they also received $2MM in cash from the Lakers). Beverley was later bought out and signed with the Bulls.


The Lakers’ perspective:

You can’t really look at this trade in isolation for the Lakers, as they completely revamped the roster with a series of moves in January and February.

The Lakers have gone 18-8 over their last 26 games despite missing LeBron James for 13 of those contests, so clearly the moves were beneficial in the short term.

They also recently signed Tristan Thompson and Shaquille Harrison to fortify their depth ahead of the postseason. They had one open roster spot and waived Reed to accommodate the second addition (he only played 27 garbage-time minutes across eight games with Los Angeles).

Bryant reportedly requested a trade after Anthony Davis returned from his foot injury. He played well as a fill-in starter for the Lakers, but wanted a bigger opportunity. Obviously, things have not worked out with Denver.

As for Beverley, moving him saved money toward the tax and created more playing time for the new additions as well as Austin Reaves, who has excelled over the past few months. Beverley had a rough start with the Lakers and although he eventually turned things around, he’s still a limited offensive player who is much older than Russell, Beasley, Reaves and Dennis Schröder.

Unfortunately, Bamba sustained a high left ankle sprain that sidelined him for a month not long after the Lakers acquired him, so it’s hard to get much of a read on how the team views him. He does bring a different skill set than Wenyen Gabriel, who has been the primary backup center following Bryant’s exit.

Bamba is listed at 7’0″ and 231 pounds with an enormous 7’10” wingspan, making him one of the longest recorded players in NBA history. He’s also shot 38.3% on threes over the past two seasons – an above-average mark, particularly for a center.

Gabriel, meanwhile, is 6’9″ and 205 pounds. He makes up for his lack of size by relentlessly going after rebounds and being a solid, versatile defensive player. He has outperformed his minimum-salary contract, but he’s still limited offensively and rough around the edges at times.

Bamba is more of a pick-and-pop threat, and obviously he has the size and length to be a deterrent in the paint – opponents shot 57.9% at the rim against Bamba, a solid mark.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Bamba is an overall positive defensively, however, as he’s prone to attempting blocks he has no chance of reaching, leaving the weak side open for offensive rebounds and easy put-backs. Still, his physical tools are enviable, and he won’t turn 25 until May.

Bamba’s $10.3MM salary for ‘23/24 will become guaranteed if the Lakers don’t waive him by the end of June. If they do release him and want to bring him back, they’ll have to re-sign him using something besides his Bird rights, which would be lost if he’s cut (he would regain his Bird rights for 2024 and beyond if he did re-sign with the Lakers in that scenario).

Poll: Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Games

By the end of the night on Tuesday, two more first-round playoff matchups will be locked in, with the No. 7 seeds in both conferences having been determined.

[RELATED: NBA’s Play-In Field, Top-Six Playoff Seeds Set]

The Eastern Conference’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup pits Jimmy Butler and the 44-38 Heat against Trae Young and the 41-41 Hawks. The two Southeast clubs will do battle on Tuesday at 7:30 pm Eastern time in Miami for the right to face the second-seeded Celtics in the first round.

Miami is the home team in this game, won the season series with Atlanta (3-1), and will enter as a 4.5-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag. The Heat haven’t looked as good this season as they did in 2021/22, when they claimed the top seed in the East and came within a couple plays of making the NBA Finals. But they’re as healthy now as they’ve been at any time this season and were far better at home (27-14) than on the road.

Miami has also done a good job defending Young — his 19.8 points per game on .356/.208/.865 shooting in four games this season vs. the Heat were the worst numbers he put up against any Eastern Conference team.

Atlanta, meanwhile, has been the epitome of a .500 club this season. Since going 13-13 in their first 26 games, the Hawks have had a .500 record an incredible 22 more times en route to a 41-41 finish.

Still, like the Heat, the Hawks are healthy entering Tuesday’s play-in game. They’ve been a winning team (38-35) when Young is available and have been a little more effective under head coach Quin Snyder (+1.8 net rating) than they were under Nate McMillan (-0.5). Perhaps Atlanta will also benefit from past play-in experience — the club won two play-in games a year ago to claim the No. 8 seed in the East.

Over in the West, the No. 7 Lakers (43-39) will host the No. 8 Timberwolves (42-20) in the second play-in game of the night to determine which team will advance to the playoffs and face the Grizzlies in round one.

The Lakers are eight-point favorites and it’s not hard to see why. Since their trade-deadline additions debuted on February 11, the Lakers have the NBA’s sixth-best net rating (+4.8) and third-best record (18-8), despite missing star forward LeBron James for 13 of those games. They’re playing their best basketball of the season at exactly the right time.

The Timberwolves, on the other hand, are entering the play-in tournament with their huge 2022 offseason addition – Rudy Gobert – set to serve a one-game suspension after punching a teammate on the sidelines in Sunday’s regular season finale. Meanwhile, breakout All-Defensive candidate Jaden McDaniels, whom the Wolves insisted on keeping when they dealt for Gobert, will be sidelined due to a separate punch — this one, aimed at a wall, broke McDaniels’ hand.

With Naz Reid (wrist surgery) also unavailable and Karl-Anthony Towns (right calf strain) listed as questionable, the Wolves will be the shorthanded team on Tuesday, but it’s worth noting that amidst all their drama and injuries, they pulled off an impressive comeback win over New Orleans on Sunday to claim the eighth spot in the West. Maybe the turmoil will help the team come together and pull off an upset victory in Los Angeles.

We want to know what you think. Which two teams will win tonight’s games and claim the No. 7 seeds for the playoffs?

Vote in our poll below, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Checking In On NBA’s 2023 Lottery Standings, Projected Draft Order

The 2022/23 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for June 22 has not yet been set.

A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 58(*) picks in the 2023 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

(* Note: The Sixers’ second-round pick and the Nuggets’ second-round pick, which was acquired by the Bulls, are forfeited due to free agency gun-jumping violations.)

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…


Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.

With the help of data from Tankathon, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
HOU 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
SAS 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
CHA 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2
POR 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
ORL 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1
WSH 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.9 19.7 35.6 12.9 1.4 >0
IND 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 32.9 31.1 6.6 0.4 >0
UTH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0
DAL 3 3.3 3.6 4 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
OKC* 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 77.6 13.5 0.4 >0
CHI* 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 85.2 6.7 0.1
TOR* 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 92.9 3.3
NOP* 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 97.6

(* Asterisks denote play-in teams)

Three sets of teams finished with matching records: the Rockets and Spurs, the Wizards and Pacers, and the Thunder and Bulls. Random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, so their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Spurs were to win their tiebreaker with the Rockets, for example, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.

Depending on which play-in teams make the playoffs, more tiebreakers could determine the last four spots of the lottery seeding, For instance, the Raptors and Hawks have identical records, as do the Timberwolves and Pelicans. If either of those pairs of teams lose in the play-in and end up in the lottery, tiebreakers will determine their exact spot in the lottery standings.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could lose their picks. The Mavericks‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Knicks if it lands outside the top 10 (20.2%), whereas Dallas would keep it if it stays in the top 10 (79.8%).

The Bulls‘ pick is top-four protected, so if Chicago misses the playoffs, then gets some lottery-night luck and moves into the top four, they’ll keep it (either 8.1% or 8.5%, depending on the tiebreaker). Otherwise, the Magic will receive it (91.5% or 91.9%).


The play-in factor

The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:

  • Chicago Bulls (40-42)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)
  • Toronto Raptors (41-41)
  • Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
  • Miami Heat (44-38)

Based on their 44-38 record, the Heat could end up with a pick as low as No. 20 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

The Bulls and Thunder finished with matching 40-42 records, while the Raptors and Hawks were each 41-41 and the Pelicans and Timberwolves were both 42-40, so if both teams in any of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

If, for example, Atlanta makes the playoffs and Toronto doesn’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary, since the Raptors would be in the lottery and the Hawks wouldn’t.


The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

  1. Houston Rockets / San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
  2. Indiana Pacers / Washington Wizards (35-37)
  3. Chicago Bulls / Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside of the top four.
  4. Atlanta Hawks / Toronto Raptors (41-41)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Nets’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers if it lands outside of the top 14.
  5. Minnesota Timberwolves / New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Timberwolves’ pick will be sent to the Jazz; the Pelicans will have the ability to swap their pick with the Lakers’ pick.
  6. Golden State Warriors / Los Angeles Clippers / Miami Heat (44-38)
    • Note: The Heat would not be involved in this tiebreaker if they don’t make the playoffs.
    • Note: The Clippers’ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  7. Brooklyn Nets / Phoenix Suns (45-37)
    • Note: The Suns’ pick will be sent to the Nets.
  8. Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
    • Note: The Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers.

The playoff teams that win the tiebreakers will get the higher pick in the first round and the lower pick in the second round. For instance, if the Warriors win their three-way tiebreaker and the Heat are the runner-up in that tiebreaker, the first-round order would be Golden State at No. 18, Miami at No. 19, and the Clippers at No. 20; the second-round order would be L.A. at No. 48, Miami at No. 49, and Golden State at No. 50.

However, the second-round order for tied lottery teams isn’t determined until lottery night. For example, if Indiana wins its tiebreaker with Washington, but the Wizards win the No. 1 pick in the lottery, the Pacers would receive the higher second-round pick, since they’d have the lower first-round pick despite winning the tiebreaker.

This is especially relevant for the Spurs/Rockets tiebreaker, since Houston’s second-round pick will be traded to a different team depending on whether it lands at No. 32 (the Pacers) or No. 33 (the Celtics). The results of that tiebreaker won’t determine which team gets Houston’s second-rounder — that won’t be officially decided until lottery night.

These tiebreakers will be conducted sometime after the playoff field is set. Last year, they were held eight days after the regular season ended.


The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2023 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

  • Jazz acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick.
    • If the Timberwolves secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will land in the 16-18 range. If the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Rockets acquiring Clippers‘ pick via swap rights (with Bucks pick).
    • The Rockets will swap the Bucks’ pick (No. 30) for the Clippers’ pick, which will land in the 18-20 range, depending on the tiebreaker results. The Clippers will receive the Bucks’ pick as part of the swap.
  • Nets acquiring Suns‘ pick.
    • This pick will land at either No. 21 or No. 22, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Trail Blazers acquiring Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be No. 23.
  • Pacers acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will land at either No. 25 or No. 26, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Hornets acquiring Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be No. 27.
  • Jazz acquiring Sixers‘ pick.
    • This pick will be No. 28.
  • Pacers acquiring Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected).
    • This pick will be No. 29.

Picks that won’t change hands:

  • Knicks acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected).
    • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 5, so it will fall in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Knicks their 2024 first-round pick (top-18 protected).
  • Spurs acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected).
    • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 8, so it will fall in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Spurs their 2024 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
  • Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 9, so it will fall in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2024 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
  • Knicks acquiring Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 12, so it will fall in its protected range. The Wizards will instead owe the Knicks their 2024 first-round pick (top-12 protected).

Picks that might change hands:

  • Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected).
    • There’s a 79.8% chance that this pick will land in the top 10, in which case it would be kept by the Mavericks. There’s a 20.2% chance it will land in the 11-14 range, in which case the Knicks would receive it.
  • Magic acquiring Bulls‘ pick (top-four protected).
    • Depending on the tiebreaker, there’s an 8.1-8.5% that this pick will land in the top four, in which case it would be kept by the Bulls. There’s a 91.5-91.9% chance it will land in the 11-14 range, in which case the Magic would receive it.
  • Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick via swap rights.
    • If the Pelicans secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament and the Lakers don’t, they’ll exercise their swap option. If both teams make or miss the playoffs, the Pelicans’ pick will be more favorable than the Lakers’ pick, so New Orleans won’t need to swap.