Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pacific Division

March 17th, 2023 at 2:57pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Pacific players.

Austin Reaves, G/F, Lakers

2022/23: $1.56MM
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

After going undrafted out of Oklahoma in 2021, Reaves initially caught on with the Lakers on a two-way deal, but received a promotion to a standard contract before his rookie season started. He was one of the bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season in Los Angeles, averaging 7.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.8 APG on .459/.317/.839 shooting (.600 true shooting percentage) in 61 games (23.2 MPG).

He has been even better in year two – you could easily make the case that he’s been the Lakers’ third-best player in 2022/23. Through 52 games (27.6 MPG), he’s averaging 11.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on an elite .511/.385/.860 shooting line (.667 TS%).

The 24-year-old has a really nice pump fake-and-drive game, which he uses to throw defenders off balance and draw fouls – he’s averaging 3.4 free throw attempts per night, which is quite high considering his usage rate is only 14.7%. Reaves has a feathery soft touch when throwing lobs, has good chemistry with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and has drastically improved defensively in his second season.

Reaves will be a restricted free agent in the offseason. The Lakers were only able to give him a two-year rookie contract after using most of their taxpayer mid-level exception on Kendrick Nunn a couple years ago, so they will hold his Early Bird rights, with a maximum offer of $50.77MM over four years.

Could he get a higher offer than that in free agency? Quite possibly. Rival suitors who want to pry him away would be subject to the Arenas provision, which limits the amount they can offer in years one and two but allows them to include big bump in salary in years three and four. Unless it’s a crazy overpay, I would expect the Lakers to match.

Lonnie Walker IV, G/F, Lakers

2022/23: $6.48MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Walker opened the season as a starter in his first year in Los Angeles, averaging 14.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.4 APG on .455/.384/.875 shooting (.578 TS%) in 32 games (29.8 MPG). Left knee tendinitis sidelined him for 14 consecutive games from late December to late January.

Walker has not started a game since he returned and has averaged just 15.5 MPG in 19 games, recording 8.2 PPG and 1.5 RPG on .417/.292/.867 shooting (.534 TS%). He has received a couple healthy scratches in that span.

Still just 24 years old, Walker is an explosive athlete but he’s just an OK shooter and doesn’t provide much in terms of rebounding, passing or defense. When he’s been on the court, he has a minus-7.2 net rating, the worst among the team’s rotation regulars. When he’s off, the Lakers are plus-3.3.

I’d be pretty surprised if he receives a starting salary at the taxpayer mid-level exception again next season.

Donte DiVincenzo, G, Warriors

2022/23: $4.5MM
2023/24: $4.73MM player option
Stock: Up

I was very surprised at how relatively little money DiVincenzo received in his first free agency foray last summer. I know he was coming off a down season in ’21/22 following left ankle surgery and had particularly struggled with his shot – he posted a .351/.339/.843 shooting line in 42 combined games (24.0 MPG) with Milwaukee and Sacramento (.510 TS%).

Still, he started to play better as the year went on, and he was still solid in other areas (4.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.1 SPG). The Kings initially gave him a qualifying offer and then pulled it, with the former No. 17 overall pick receiving part of the taxpayer mid-level from Golden State – he’s actually making less this season than he did in the final year of his rookie contract.

The 26-year-old has certainly earned a raise. He has been invaluable to the Warriors, averaging 9.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.3 SPG in 60 games (25 starts, 26.6 MPG).

On top of being a strong defensive player, DiVincenzo has a high basketball IQ, hustles, and is shooting a career-high 40.4% from three-point range to go along with a rock solid 58.8 TS%. The Warriors only have his Non-Bird rights, so it will be very difficult to bring him back unless he really loves playing for them and is willing to accept a team-friendly deal.

Alex Len, C, Kings

2022/23: $3.92MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Len signed a two-year, $7.65MM contract with the Kings as a free agent in 2021. He didn’t play all that well last season, averaging 6.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG while shooting 53.4% from the floor and 65.1% from the line in 39 games (15.9 MPG).

He has barely played at all in ’22/23, appearing in 17 games for a total of 53 minutes. He is the definition of being buried on the depth chart.

It’s hard to see the former No. 5 overall pick getting anything more than the veteran’s minimum as a free agent this summer, assuming he finds a team.

Josh Okogie, G/F, Suns

2022/23: $1.84MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Okogie spent his first four seasons with Minnesota, the team that drafted him 20th overall in 2018. They let him walk after his rookie deal expired, and the 24-year-old was only able to find a veteran’s minimum deal with Phoenix.

The primary reason for that modest deal was Okogie’s limited offensive production. He averaged 6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .403/.275/.758 shooting (.521 TS%) in 244 games (20.6 MPG) with the Wolves.

His stats this season in Phoenix – 7.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 0.8 SPG on .399/.329/.728 shooting (53.5 TS%) in 60 games (17.6 MPG) – aren’t all that different. So why is his stock up?

Since the start of the new year, Okogie is averaging 10.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .398/.369/.725 shooting (.547 TS%) in 28 games (24.1 MPG). He has been even better over the past 14 contests, of which he’s started 13 straight (32.4 MPG), averaging 14.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.6 SPG on .423/.378/.780 shooting (.580 TS%).

Okogie is a ferocious offensive rebounder and pound-for-pound one of the best athletes in the NBA, which enables him to switch across multiple positions. He is an outstanding defender.

The Nigerian swingman brings a relentless energy and physicality every time he steps on the court, which complements a team that relies heavily on jump shots. I don’t have a good feel for how much he might get on his next contract, but he’s certainly trending in a positive direction.

2023’s Most Valuable Traded Second-Round Picks

March 17th, 2023 at 10:29am CST by Luke Adams

Fans of lottery-bound NBA teams will be keeping a close on the bottom of the league’s standings down the stretch because of the effect that “race” will have on the draft order and lottery odds for the 2023 first round.

However, it’s not just the first round of the draft that’s worth keeping an eye on. Those reverse standings will also dictate the order of the draft’s second round, and an early second-round pick can be nearly as valuable as a first-rounder.

Here are a few of the traded 2023 draft picks that project to land near the top of the second round:

From: Houston Rockets
To: Indiana Pacers or Boston Celtics
Current projection: No. 32

The Rockets initially traded their 2023 second-round pick, with top-32 protection, to Memphis at the 2020 trade deadline as part of a Bruno Caboclo/Jordan Bell swap. The Celtics later acquired that top-32 protected second-rounder during the 2020 offseason in the deal that sent the draft rights to No. 30 pick Desmond Bane to the Grizzlies.

As part of the complex four-team James Harden blockbuster in early 2021, the Rockets agreed to send the Pacers their 2023 second-round pick if it ends up at No. 31 and No. 32. So the Pacers are on track to receive that Houston second-rounder if it’s one of the first two picks of the round, while the Celtics would get it otherwise.

We took a closer look at this draft-related subplot of the NBA’s race to the bottom last week, noting that the Pacers could instead end up with a pick in the early 50s if the Rockets’ second-rounder slips to No. 33. Missing out on Houston’s pick wouldn’t be quite as bad for the Celtics, as we outline below.

From: Portland Trail Blazers
To: Boston Celtics or Oklahoma City Thunder
Current projection: No. 36

If the Rockets’ second-round pick ends up at No. 31 or No. 32, the Celtics will almost certainly receive Portland’s pick instead. If Houston’s second-rounder lands at No. 33, Boston would get it, while the Thunder would acquire the Blazers’ pick.

Should the Blazers’ recent slide continue, their second-rounder may not actually be much less favorable than Houston’s — only four spots separate them for the time being.

The Blazers originally gave up their 2023 second-round selection when they acquired Rodney Hood from Cleveland just ahead of the 2019 deadline. It was subsequently flipped to the Pistons (in the 2019 offeason), the Clippers (in the 2020 offseason), the Hawks (at the 2021 deadline), and finally the Celtics in a three-team trade during the summer of 2021.

When they acquired Mike Muscala from the Thunder last month, the Celtics agreed to send OKC the least favorable of their two 2023 second-round picks, which is why the Thunder would receive Portland’s pick if Boston gets Houston’s.

From: Chicago Bulls
To: Washington Wizards
Current projection: No. 37

The Bulls remain in the thick of the play-in race in the Eastern Conference, so it’s possible their second-rounder could slide all the way to the mid-40s if they make the play-in tournament and then earn a playoff spot. However, the Wizards – the team the Bulls are chasing for the No. 10 spot in the East – have extra incentive to stay ahead of Chicago, thereby increasing the value of this pick.

The Wizards acquired this Bulls second-rounder with top-36 protection when they sent Otto Porter Jr. to Chicago at the 2019 deadline. The Bulls agreed to remove the protections as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Tomas Satoransky later that year.

Interestingly, the Wizards actually traded Chicago’s 2023 second-rounder to the Lakers as part of the Russell Westbrook blockbuster in the summer of 2021, but got it back from L.A. a couple months ago in the Rui Hachimura deal.

From: Indiana Pacers
To: Sacramento Kings
Current projection: No. 38

Like the Bulls, the Pacers are still in the play-in race in the East, so there’s no guarantee this pick will land in the top 10 of the second round. But Indiana has a banged-up roster and doesn’t appear overly incentivized to make the play-in tournament.

This pick changed hands in the Domantas Sabonis/Tyrese Haliburton mega-deal at the 2022 trade deadline. Technically, the Spurs would receive it if it lands between Nos. 56 and 60, but we can safely rule out that possibility at this point.

Other picks to watch:

Given how congested the play-in races are in each conference, there are a handful of other second-rounders whose value could surpass that of a couple of the picks listed above.

For instance, the Jazz‘s second-round pick is currently controlled by the Hornets, the Spurs own the Raptors‘ second-rounder, and the Thunder will acquire the Wizards‘ second-rounder if it’s more favorable than OKC’s own pick.

Trade Breakdown: Eric Gordon To The Clippers (Three-Team Deal)

March 15th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the eighth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a three-team deal between the Clippers, Rockets and Grizzlies…

On February 9:

The Clippers acquired Eric Gordon (from the Rockets) and three second-round picks (from the Grizzlies; details here).
The Grizzlies acquired Luke Kennard (from the Clippers) and the right to swap a 2026 second-round pick with Los Angeles.
The Rockets acquired Danny Green (from the Grizzlies), John Wall (from the Clippers), and the right to swap the Bucks’ 2023 first-round pick for either the Clippers’ or Thunder’s 2023 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable; top-six protected; from Clippers)

The Rockets’ perspective:

Shortly after the trade, both Green and Wall were subsequently released by Houston; Green reached a buyout agreement and later signed with Cleveland, while Wall remains a free agent.

Multiple reports indicated that Houston was interested in keeping Green around, but obviously he had other plans. That makes a lot of sense — the three-time champion is 35 years old and the Rockets are the second-worst team in the NBA after finishing dead last in each of the previous two seasons.

After reaching a buyout with Wall over the summer, the Rockets wound up reacquiring him in this deal following his tumultuous first stint with the franchise. Considering he called his initial go-round “beyond trash,” it’s not surprising that he was waived outright this time.

The Rockets were rumored to be looking for a first-round pick for Gordon for at least a couple of years, and instead of receiving an extra one, they’re going to end up swapping a pick they control for one with much higher upside.

At the time of the trade, the Bucks were 37-17 and the Clippers were 31-27. Those picks would have landed at Nos. 28 and 18, respectively, last month.

The Bucks proceeded to go on a long winning streak and are now 50-19, holding a three-game lead over Boston for the best record in the NBA. Milwaukee’s 2023 first-rounder would currently land at No. 30.

The Clippers are now 36-33. Their first-rounder remains at No. 18.

However, the 34-35 Thunder only trail the Clippers by two games, and they have swap rights with the Clippers – if Oklahoma City passes L.A. in the standings, Houston would instead receive the Thunder’s 2023 first-rounder.

If both the Clippers and Thunder miss the playoffs – which is certainly possible, given how jumbled the standings are – then the Thunder would receive the more favorable of the two lottery picks. Assuming the second pick falls outside of the top six (highly likely given how the NBA’s draft lottery works), that pick would go to Houston, with the Clippers receiving Milwaukee’s pick.

All of that is basically out of the Rockets’ control. The Clippers could easily finish as high as fourth in the West or could drop out of the playoffs entirely – six teams trail them in the standings by three games or less.

Long story short, there’s a chance the Rockets could receive a late lottery pick, but perhaps more likely a pick in the late teens, in exchange for Gordon and a pick in the 27-to-30 range.

Gordon was having a down season for Houston, is 34 years old, and makes $19.57MM this season (his $20.92MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed). I’m honestly surprised the Rockets were able to get as much for him as they did, given those factors.

The Rockets also created a $3.09MM traded player exception in this deal, as noted in our TPE tracker.

The Clippers’ perspective:

Gordon is eight years older than Kennard, and it would be a little surprising if the Clippers bring him back next season on his current contract. Still, he’s a better all-around player than Kennard, and the Clippers did get back three second-rounders from Memphis to somewhat offset giving up a higher value first-rounder to Houston.

While Kennard has remained a highly efficient three-point shooter with the Clippers in ’22/23, he battled a calf strain that sidelined him for significant stretches – he only appeared in 35 of 58 games. He also wasn’t a major part of the team’s playoff rotation a couple years ago and can be frustratingly passive on offense considering he’s a minus on the defensive end – it’s bizarre to see a 44.9% three-point shooter not be more aggressive looking for his shot.

Wall struggled mightily on both ends with Los Angeles, posting a .408/303/.681 shooting line (.498 true shooting percentage) while playing porous defense. Shedding his salary in this deal could be viewed as a bonus, as there were rumors that the Clippers might buy him out if they couldn’t trade him.

Guard play was a major weakness on the roster, and Gordon was a necessary upgrade for a team hoping to compete for a title. Sure, the Clippers took on the most risk in this trade, but you could easily make the argument that not making changes would have been an even bigger risk – both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can opt out of their contracts in 2024, and the team still owes unprotected first-rounders and swaps to the Thunder through 2026 as part of the George trade.

I didn’t view Gordon as having a relatively down season with Houston as that big of a deal. His driving ability was still there, his true shooting percentage (57.2%) remained above average for a guard, and can you really blame him for being frustrated by the situation?

When Gordon signed with the Rockets in 2016, they were a regular playoff team that had already made one conference finals appearance (in 2015). They came very close to making the Finals in 2018, but wound up losing in seven games.

The following season, the Rockets won 53 games and were eliminated by Golden State again, after which Gordon signed an extension. They made the playoffs again in ‘19/20, but everything turned to dust when James Harden requested a trade. The past few seasons Gordon became the de facto elder statesman on a roster full of very young players.

That’s not to say Gordon is still in his physical prime; that came when he first entered the league back in 2008 with the Clippers, the team that selected him No. 7 overall out of Indiana. A couple of significant knee injuries from 2011-12 changed that trajectory.

However, Gordon still evolved into a valuable player, leaning into his long-range shooting and quick first step to attack players off the dribble with Houston. He still possesses those qualities in his 15th NBA season.

In 10 games (25.0 MPG) in his second stint with the Clippers, he’s averaging 10.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG and 2.4 APG on .447/.386/.762 shooting splits (.592 TS%). He has posted a 3.43 assist-to-turnover ratio in those contests, which is an impressive mark.

One of Gordon’s strengths is that he’s self-aware. He knows his job isn’t to be a primary scorer anymore — it’s to shoot open threes, leverage his shooting to drive and draw fouls, or kick out to open shooters. He’s a smart, unselfish passer on the perimeter.

Another positive attribute that Gordon brings to the Clippers is that at 6’3″ and 215 pounds, he has a low center of gravity and a strong core, which allows him to defend forwards. Houston often ran switching schemes in the past, and he’s comfortable as part of a five-out offense as well – two things that Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue favors in the postseason.

Gordon has played the entire fourth quarter in each of the past three games, all victories. I expect that to continue as the Clippers attempt to secure a playoff spot and make a deep postseason run.

The Grizzlies’ perspective:

Memphis had the best available information on Green’s recovery from a torn ACL, as he spent the majority of the season rehabbing – he had just made his season debut on February 1, eight days before the trade deadline. I’m sure the Grizzlies valued his locker room presence, but if they didn’t think he could contribute down the stretch, there wasn’t much to be gained by keeping him around, as his contract was set to expire at the end of the season.

Kennard, on the other hand, is only 26 years old, nine years younger than Green. He brings a much-needed skill to the Grizzlies, who rank just 25th in the league in three-point percentage (34.3%).

The lefty sharpshooter out of Duke led the league in three-point shooting last season and has matched that stellar mark (44.9%) in 46 total games in ‘22/23. Kennard is also under team control for multiple seasons – he’ll make $15.42MM in ’23/24 and the Grizzlies will hold a team option for the same salary in ’24/25.

Kennard has shown in the past that he has some play-making chops as well, averaging 4.1 APG back in ‘19/20 with Detroit. Through 11 games (21.0 MPG) with Memphis, he’s averaging 6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.9 APG on .404/.455/1.000 shooting splits (.611 TS%).

The Grizzlies’ roster is full of players in their early-to-mid 20s, with veteran center Steven Adams the elder statesman at 29. Kennard fits perfectly with their timeline as far as that goes, and he’s young enough that he could certainly improve in the coming years.

As previously mentioned, Kennard is not a great individual defender, but he does fine in team concepts and is generally in the right spots. The Grizzlies have a few excellent defensive players on the roster, so perhaps they will be able to mask some of his weaknesses.

This could be viewed as both a short- and long-term upgrade for the Grizzlies, and adding Kennard’s extra salary this season (he makes $14.42MM this season vs. Green’s outgoing $10MM salary) didn’t affect the team much financially, as they’re still well below the luxury tax threshold.

Kennard’s mid-sized contract isn’t onerous given his age and shooting ability. The Grizzlies could conceivably use him as a salary-matching piece in the future as well if they’re so inclined.

Two-to-four second-round picks seemed to be a sweet spot for landing role player upgrades at the deadline. The Grizzlies moved three to land Kennard, but still have all of their own future first-rounders – along with one extra in 2024 – if they want to make a major trade down the line.

It’s interesting that the Clippers agreed to send Kennard to a Western Conference rival, particularly one they might have to face in the postseason. I’m sure he would have a little extra motivation if the Grizzlies are matched up against the Clippers in the playoffs.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

March 15th, 2023 at 9:20am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place annually between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold those teams’ first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four selections in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
140 combinations, 14.0%
140 combinations, 14.0%
125 combinations, 12.5%
105 combinations, 10.5%
90 combinations, 9.0%
75 combinations, 7.5%
60 combinations, 6.0%
45 combinations, 4.5%
30 combinations, 3.0%
20 combinations, 2.0%
15 combinations, 1.5%
10 combinations, 1.0%
5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.

Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
1	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1	–	–	–	–
7	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
8	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
9	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
10	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	19	1.2	>0	>0
11	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
12	1.5	1.7	1.9	2.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	6.7	0.1
13	1	1.1	1.2	1.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.9	2.3
14	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

The NBA’s lottery format was changed in 2019, with that year’s draft representing the first one that used the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery and the odds were weighted more heavily in favor of the league’s worst teams.

Beginning in 2021, the NBA’s lottery underwent another small change when the league introduced the play-in tournament. The lottery now includes the 10 teams that miss out on the playoffs and the play-in tournament, plus the four clubs that are eliminated in the play-in portion of the postseason.

That means a team can finish the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in its conference, but if that club is eliminated in the play-in tournament, it will be in the lottery. Conversely, a team that finishes ninth or 10th in its conference during the regular season and then wins a pair of play-in games to earn a playoff spot will be a non-lottery team.

Once the 14 lottery teams are determined, their lottery odds are still dictated by their regular season records, so the play-in losers won’t necessarily be the 11-14 “seeds” in the lottery. For example, in 2022, the 34-48 Spurs ended up with better lottery odds than the 37-45 Knicks or 35-47 Wizards, even though San Antonio participated in the Western Conference play-in tournament while New York and Washington didn’t qualify for the East’s play-in.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in past years.

Trade Breakdown: Josh Richardson To The Pelicans

March 14th, 2023 at 4:56pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the seventh entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Pelicans and Spurs…

On February 9, the Pelicans sent guard Devonte’ Graham and four second-round picks (details here) to the Spurs in exchange for swingman Josh Richardson.

The Pelicans’ perspective:

Acquiring Graham via sign-and-trade in 2021 didn’t work out for New Orleans. The team wound up dealing for CJ McCollum last year and running him at starting point guard, and Graham got outplayed by undrafted free agent Jose Alvarado in each of the past two seasons.

The Pelicans also had former first-rounder Kira Lewis Jr. return from a torn ACL in 2022/23 and drafted Dyson Daniels No. 8 overall last summer. Carrying five players on the 15-man roster who primarily play the point isn’t ideal.

There’s also the fact that, when healthy, both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram handle the ball a significant portion of the time and are play-makers. That makes a short (6’1″) subpar defender like Graham an awkward fit.

The 6’6″ Richardson, meanwhile, fills a positional need at shooting guard and is a much better defensive player than Graham. At his best, Richardson uses his 6’10” wingspan, athleticism and quick hands to be disruptive on that end of the floor — he has averaged 2.6 SPG and 0.8 BPG through nine games with the Pelicans (his career marks are 1.1 SPG and 0.6 BPG).

Shedding Graham’s salary over the next couple of seasons — he’s owed $12.1MM in ‘23/24 and a partially guaranteed $2.85MM ($12.65MM base) in ‘24/25 — likely cost the Pelicans at least two second-round picks, if not three. Replacing him with Richardson for an extra second or two was a low-risk maneuver.

Richardson is on an expiring $12.2MM contract, making him an unrestricted free agent this offseason. If the Pelicans can bring him back at a similar rate — essentially swapping Graham’s salary slot for Richardson — that would be solid value. Letting him walk is also a valid option if they’re concerned about the luxury tax going forward.

Richardson has bounced around quite a bit after spending his first four, most successful seasons with Miami, having played for Philadelphia, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio and now New Orleans over the past four seasons.

As is the case with nearly every NBA player outside of the superstars, how a player fits within the dynamic of the rest of the roster largely determines whether he’s successful or not. Richardson is a quality role player, but not on every team.

The 29-year-old sometimes gets the generic 3-and-D label, which I think is a little bit of a misnomer in his case.

While Richardson is a solid defensive player, his offensive game is more varied than just spotting up for open threes. He’s an erratic outside shooter, converting 36.4% for his career from deep, which is right around league average (35.9% over the same eight seasons). However, he has been as high as 46.1% (on his lowest volume as a rookie), and as low as 33.0% (two separate seasons).

Richardson plays with a lot of energy on both sides of the ball and understands how to optimize spacing offensively. If things look congested on one side of the floor, you will see him flying around to an open area to create more room and better passing angles. 90.5% of his career three-point attempts have been assisted — he’s not looking to create his own shot from beyond the arc.

He is a crafty complementary pick-and-roll operator who particularly favors getting his defender on his hip and then stopping and pulling up around 12-to-17 feet. He has been very efficient from mid-range this season, converting 48.5% of those opportunities — that ranks in the 85th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.

If the right-handed Richardson gets all the way into the paint, he prefers to finish with his left hand, often using a scoop shot. He will use hesitation moves or his speed to get to the rim during pick-and-rolls.

The eight-year veteran is an unselfish passer and has a soft touch when throwing lobs, though his handle is a little loose at times, which can lead to turnovers. He generally does a solid job of taking care of the ball and making good reads though, especially for a secondary or tertiary ball-handler – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.97-to-1, a respectable mark for a shooting guard.

This season represents the first time in Richardson’s career that he’s taken more threes than twos, and from an efficiency standpoint you could argue he should have been pushed in that direction sooner, even if he’s just an average shooter from long distance. He’s also not a great rebounder for a two guard and can struggle with bigger, more physical players on defense, as his frame is relatively thin (he’s listed at 200 pounds).

Another weak point is that Richardson will gamble on occasion defensively, reaching instead of using his feet to stick with his opponent. Still, when he’s engaged, he’s an above-average defender.

Overall, this trade made a lot sense for New Orleans. The Pelicans were able to fill a positional need in the short term and get rid of Graham’s contract, which had become problematic given his poor fit and the long-term commitments to other players.

The Spurs’ perspective:

Richardson played some of his best basketball since his Miami days with San Antonio, but he’s 29 years old and on expiring contract. The Spurs are in the midst of their first rebuild in decades, so extracting value for Richardson was logical.

While Graham was redundant on the Pelicans, the Spurs had a glaring need at point guard – Tre Jones is the only other true lead guard on the roster. In fact, Richardson was serving as the backup point at times, and though he did a respectable job, Graham is better suited for the role.

Graham is a good ball-handler and passer. He also takes care of the ball, posting a career 3.09-to-1- assist-to-turnover ratio – 3-to-1 is generally considered a very good benchmark. He is more of a shoot-first point guard who can play off the ball than a traditional pass-first floor general.

This trade is a good example of how statistics can be misleading without context. Richardson is a career 36.4% three-point shooter, while Graham is at 35.7%. On the surface, that seems like Graham is a worse three-point shooter.

Yet if you watch the two play, it would immediately be evident that Graham is a much more dangerous outside shooter. He has taken more than twice as many threes as twos in his career and is able to find shots from long distance in multiple ways.

Graham doesn’t hesitate to pull up from deep in transition, and utilizes dribble moves – including side-steps, crossovers and relocation dribbles – to create his own shot. He can shoot on the move coming off screens, in addition to the typical catch-and-shoot threes.

The Spurs rank just 26th in the league in three-point attempts and 25th in the three-point percentage. Graham’s shot selection can be a little questionable at times, in my opinion, but his ability to stretch the floor and make good reads while passing adds a different dynamic to their offense.

If the young draft picks on San Antonio’s roster can learn from some of Graham’s offensive skills, that would be an added bonus. Several of them are still in the early stages of their development.

In 53 games with the Pelicans this season (15.3 MPG), Graham was averaging just 5.3 PPG and 2.2 APG on .368/.347/.746 shooting. In 11 games (28.1 MPG) with the Spurs, he’s averaging 15.8 PPG and 4.2 APG on .394/.378/.825 shooting. He’s attempting 8.9 threes per game with San Antonio, which is right around what he averaged a few years ago with Charlotte.

Graham is a limited defensive player due to his size and doesn’t always give the required effort; the Spurs are dreadful on that end, ranking dead last in the NBA. Still, they’re barely better on offense (29th), and I do think Graham is an upgrade over Richardson in that regard. In a vacuum, their values are closer than this trade might make it seem – look how similar their contracts are (Graham makes $11.55MM this season).

Unlike New Orleans, San Antonio has plenty of cap room going forward, so adding Graham’s longer-term salary isn’t burdensome. He just turned 28 years old and has already showed in his brief stint with the Spurs that he can still play, so trading him in the future for more assets could be an option.

Another aspect of this deal that I found interesting is that both Graham (No. 34 overall in 2018) and Richardson (No. 40 overall in 2015) are examples of successful second-round picks. The Spurs added four second-rounders in this deal while filling a positional need – that’s a quality return for a solid role player on an expiring deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

March 11th, 2023 at 1:02pm CST by Rory Maher

James Harden, G, Sixers

2022/23: $33MM
2023/24: $35.64MM player option
Stock: Up

Harden started to look a little old and out of shape in 2021/22, never quite recovering from a reoccurring hamstring injury originally sustained in late ‘20/21.

His counting stats were still excellent (22.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 10.3 APG, 1.3 SPG), but he lacked burst when driving and shot the ball poorly for his standards, posting a .410/.330/.877 shooting line (58.3% true shooting percentage). 33.0% was a career-low from three, and his FG% and TS% were his lowest marks since his rookie year back in ‘09/10.

Harden wound up taking a “pay cut” in free agency last summer to allow the Sixers to sign P.J. Tucker and Danuel House. However, the contract was only a one-plus-one, so he can opt out of his player option and become a free agent again this summer.

He seemed to be in great shape to open ‘22/23, but unfortunately sustained a foot injury which caused him to miss 14 games. He has looked very good since he returned.

The 33-year-old may no longer be at his peak form, when he led the league in scoring for three straight years from 2017-20, but he’s not far from it. Harden has acclimated nicely to being more of a distributor alongside Joel Embiid, averaging 21.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, a league-leading 10.8 APG and 1.1 SPG on a .448/.397/.874 shooting line (62.2 TS%) through 49 games (36.9 MPG).

39.7% from deep is a career-high for the former league MVP, as is his 3.19-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Advanced stats say he has been among the top 10 or 15 players in the league.

I know many people think the rumors about Harden potentially going back to Houston in the offseason are a negotiating ploy to increase the value of his next deal. I could very well be wrong, but I’m not in that group.

I realize Harden will be 34 in the summer, and the Rockets have a team full of young players. But I really believe he might opt out and sign a four-year, maximum-salary contract with his former team, regardless of how the Sixers do in the playoffs. He just seemed happier there, and the Rockets are motivated to improve because they don’t control their own pick in 2024. We’ll see what happens.

Dewayne Dedmon, C, Sixers

2022/23: Details below
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Dedmon’s financial situation is a little complicated. The Pistons used the stretch provision on his contract back in 2020 after acquiring him from Atlanta, so he will continue to be paid $2.87MM each season by Detroit through 2024/25.

The veteran center had a falling out with Miami and was suspended for a game after knocking a piece of medical equipment onto the court following an argument with the coaching staff. He only played one more game for the Heat before he was moved to San Antonio in a salary dump.

The Spurs subsequently waived Dedmon’s $4.7MM contract, and he signed a rest-of-season deal with Philadelphia for the veteran’s minimum. However, he has yet to appear in a game with his new club after initially being sidelined with hip soreness.

Dedmon posted an abysmal minus-10.4 net rating with the Heat, and his effectiveness was clearly diminished in part due to plantar fasciitis in his foot. If he hopes to find a deal for more than the minimum this summer, the 33-year-old will have to prove he’s healthy and can still contribute at a high level — he’s running out of time to do so.

Jakob Poeltl, C, Raptors

2022/23: $9.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Acquired in a deadline deal with San Antonio, Poeltl has gotten off to a great start in his second stint with Toronto, looking very motivated in averaging 14.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 SPG and 1.7 BPG while shooting 69% from the floor and 56.1% from the free throw line through 12 games (28.4 MPG).

The 7’1” big man has provided a jolt in some much-needed areas. He has been particularly adept at finishing on offense and protecting the paint at the other end. Poeltl is also a strong screener and passer, which helps compensate for his lack of shooting.

The 27-year-old is expected to command a salary in the range of $15-20MM per year in free agency this summer. If Poeltl keeps playing at this level, the high end of that range could be within reach, similar to what Jarrett Allen signed a couple years ago with the Cavs (five years, $100MM).

Seth Curry, G, Nets

2022/23: $8.5MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

The younger Curry brother has been one of the league’s top shooters since he started getting semi-regular minutes back in 2015/16, holding a career slash line of .475/.435/.865 in 426 games (206 starts, 24.7 MPG). However, he got off to a slow start in ‘22/23 following offseason ankle surgery, and is having a down year by his standards.

Curry has appeared in 49 of 67 games for the Nets with averages of 9.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG and 1.9 APG in 21.4 MPG. He’s averaging his fewest points, rebounds and minutes per game since ‘18/19, when he was with Portland.

He’s also shooting a career-worst 39.6% from three. It feels very weird saying that’s a low mark, but Curry had never previously shot below 42.2% from deep.

The 32-year-old has always been a poor defensive player, but this is the first time in several years where it feels like his deficiencies on that end have outweighed what he brings on offense – the Nets have statistically been worse on both ends when he’s on the court, with Curry posting a minus-2.8 net rating. The fit hasn’t been ideal either, as they have a few too many players with similar skill sets.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Curry gets a slight raise on his current deal if it’s only for a year or two, but I would be a little surprised if he gets a raise and a three- or four-year contract. As a very undersized shooting guard (6’1″, 185 pounds), he’s probably best suited for a bench role given his distinct strengths and weaknesses.

Hoops Rumors’ Lists, Trackers, Features

March 11th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

In addition to passing along news, rumors, and analysis on a daily basis, Hoops Rumors provides a number of additional features and resources that can be found anytime on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site under “Hoops Rumors Features,” or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu.

Since those links are easy to overlook and aren’t readily accessible to our app users, we want to periodically highlight a number of our lists, trackers, and other features.

For instance, our lists of 2023 free agents by position/type and by team are constantly updated, as is our list of 2024 free agents and our breakdown of current free agents.

We have a number of features related to NBA trades, including a roundup of this season’s deals, a list of the trade exceptions currently available to teams, and details on which teams can still send and receive cash in trades during the 2022/23 league year.

We have info on how teams are using mid-level and bi-annual exceptions in 2022/23, as well as which clubs are hard-capped and which have open roster spots. Our 10-day contract tracker, two-way contract tracker, and contract extension tracker provide information on many of the deals signed this season.

We’ve got details on how much this season’s maximum salaries, minimum salaries, and mid-level/bi-annual exceptions are worth, as well as projections for how much the maximums, minimums, and mid-level/bi-annual will be worth in 2023/24.

The Hoops Rumors Glossary provides in-depth explanations on many concepts related to the salary cap and Collective Bargaining Agreement, presented in the simplest possible terms.

Many of our features and trackers are cyclical and will be reintroduced as the year goes on. For example, it’ll just be a matter of time before we start keeping tabs on all the early entrants for the 2023 NBA draft.

Be sure to check out the sidebar on our desktop site or our Features page for all of our current resources.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Most Impactful Buyout Market Addition

March 10th, 2023 at 2:02pm CST by Luke Adams

It was a busy February on the buyout market, with 10 different players giving up money as part of agreements to be released by their respective teams.

All 10 of those players have since found new homes, though one (Leandro Bolmaro) returned to Europe and one (Nerlens Noel) may have a new home only temporarily, since he’s still on a 10-day contract for now.

That leaves eight players who have signed rest-of-season contracts with potential contenders or playoff teams, and several of them have already claimed rotation roles with their new clubs.

Veteran point guard Reggie Jackson, for instance, has stepped into the role of second unit play-maker that Bones Hyland previously occupied with the Nuggets. In his first seven games with Denver, Jackson has struggled with his shot (.300/.324/.667) but is averaging 21.0 minutes per night and setting up his teammates (3.4 assists per game) while taking care of the ball reasonably well (1.1 turnovers per game).

Kevin Love, like Jackson, is once again playing regular minutes after being demoted from his role with his old team. And like Jackson, he has struggled to score efficiently so far, shooting just .396/.242/.875 in seven appearances (all starts; 22.1 MPG) for the Heat. Both Love and Jackson appear to have found good fits with their new teams, though they’ll need to boost their respective shooting percentages if they hope to keep playing 20-plus minutes per night.

Love isn’t the only buyout-market signee to immediately step into a starting role. Russell Westbrook has done the same with the Clippers and has become a major part of their rotation, averaging 30.4 minutes per game in his first seven contests. He’s still struggling with turnovers (4.1 per game) and hasn’t exactly been a defensive stopper, but has put up 14.1 PPG and 8.1 APG on 51.9% shooting.

While Terrence Ross and Justin Holiday weren’t brought into be difference-makers, they’ve played pretty well so far for the Suns and Mavericks, respectively. Ross is averaging 11.2 points in just 20.2 minutes per contest (five games) while making 39.3% of his 5.6 three-pointers per night; Holiday has made threes at the exact same clip (39.3% on 4.0 attempts per game) and has started two of his seven games with Dallas.

Patrick Beverley (Bulls), Will Barton (Raptors), and Goran Dragic (Bucks) are some of the other notable buyout market additions, but Beverley and Barton are on teams battling for play-in spots, and Dragic has yet to make his debut for his new team, so it remains to be seen how much impact they’ll be able to have.

Beverley, at least, is playing pretty big minutes in Chicago, starting all seven of his games so far and logging 28.0 MPG. And Dragic’s team appears well positioned to make a deep postseason run, so he should have plenty of time to get healthy and chip in. Barton hasn’t earned much of a role yet in Toronto, however.

Expectations are relatively low for players signed as free agents in February or March, so we shouldn’t count on any of these players to swing a playoff series — if they can be productive rotation players into the spring, that’ll constitute a win.

We want to know what you think. Which of this year’s buyout market additions will end up being the most impactful down the stretch and in the postseason?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Breakdown: Dario Saric To The Thunder

March 9th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the sixth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Suns and Thunder…

On February 9, the Thunder traded forward/center Darius Bazley to the Suns in exchange for forward/center Dario Saric, Phoenix’s 2029 second-round pick and $1MM in cash.

The Thunder’s perspective:

On the surface, this seems like a pretty minor trade that got lost in the shuffle a bit due to all the blockbusters leading up to the deadline. That said, I thought it was interesting for a number of different reasons.

As our Luke Adams explains in our glossary entry on traded player exceptions, even though this seems like a straightforward one-for-one swap, this was actually a non-simultaneous deal for both the Thunder and the Suns, making it mutually beneficial.

A non-simultaneous deal means a team can trade away a single player without immediately taking salary back in return, allowing it to create an outstanding trade exception.

This deal showed the value of having a large ($10,183,800) outstanding traded player exception, which permitted the Thunder to take on Saric’s $9,240,000 contract for “nothing.” That also allowed them to generate a new TPE, worth $4,264,629, which is what Bazley is making this season.

The Suns created their own TPE because they only traded one player and took back less salary than they sent out. It’s worth $4,975,371, which is the difference between Saric’s salary and Bazley’s. Both teams will have until next February to use their new TPEs.

There are plenty of examples of large TPEs not being used at all. Often that has to do with the team’s proximity to the luxury tax and its willingness (or lack thereof) to pay a huge chunk of cash for what could amount to a rental player (many players involved in deadline deals are on expiring or pseudo-expiring contracts — both Saric and Bazley could hit free agency this summer, for example).

The Thunder were in the sweet spot of being over the cap but far enough below the luxury tax line that they could use their large TPE to create an additional asset of sorts to possibly create future value. It also netted them a second-round pick and a little cash, since the Suns were motivated to move off Saric’s contract.

Cap aspects aside, when it was first announced, my first thought was to wonder if Saric might reach a buyout agreement or get waived, even though the Thunder were (and still are) in the play-in race. A handful of days after the deadline, it definitely sounded like he wasn’t going to pursue a buyout, praising the organization and saying he was “open-minded” about his potential role.

However, a report late last month indicated that he nearly was waived as Oklahoma City sought flexibility with its last roster spot, instead choosing to release Eugene Omoruyi.

My second thought was, wait, did the Thunder just make an on-court upgrade and get draft capital back? That very rarely happens.

That’s not to say the Thunder made a win-now move, far from it. The primary objective was landing the second-round pick and creating a new TPE. Saric is on an expiring contract and I’m sure the Thunder’s front office wouldn’t mind if they missed the postseason, though they haven’t shown any signs of blatantly tanking to this point.

He may not be a household name, but Saric is an accomplished player, providing solid value with all three of his previous clubs (he started with Philadelphia and was traded to Minnesota in the Jimmy Butler deal back in ‘18/19). He holds career averages of 11.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.9 APG on .443/.360/.838 shooting in 402 games (217 starts, 24.0 MPG).

Saric missed all of last season while recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals. He had a second surgery last May to repair a torn meniscus, making it an open question what his form would look like upon his return from two major knee surgeries.

He (understandably) had a very slow start to 2022/23, only appearing in 22 of Phoenix’s first 41 games with averages of 3.8 PPG and 2.8 RPG on .358/.351/.857 shooting in 11.6 MPG. That’s why I said his free agent stock was trending down when I wrote about him in January.

However, he was a rotation fixture in the 15 games (seven starts, 18.5 MPG) leading up to the deadline, averaging 8.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 2.3 APG on .485/.438/.800 shooting. Saric’s solid play has continued post-trade, as he’s averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.7 RPG on a scorching hot .627/.458/.889 shooting line through nine games with the Thunder (14.9 MPG).

The 28-year-old has an excellent feel for the game, using his high basketball IQ to overcome his relative lack of athleticism. He is a below-the-rim finisher, but has good touch and lots of tricks around the basket – he’s shooting 67.1% at the rim this season, which ranks in the 71st percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The Thunder run a five-out offense where every player on the court is capable of dribbling, passing, screening and shooting. All of those are strengths of Saric’s.

He isn’t a great defensive player at either frontcourt position, and he’s undersized against some centers (he’s listed at 6’10” and 225 pounds). That said, he’s generally in the right spots, he just lacks the foot speed to stick on the perimeter and the length to protect the paint.

Oklahoma City has had a ton of draft picks over the past few years, and still has loads more in the future. Bazley was one that didn’t work out.

The No. 23 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Bazley entered the NBA as an excellent athlete with raw skills. He turned into a solid defensive player, but struggled mightily offensively.

I gained a newfound respect for Bazley as a person after I saw a video of him talking about his diminished playing time this season (he only appeared in 36 of 54 games for an average of 15.4 MPG). His team-first attitude and self-awareness were admirable.

While Bazley is certainly young and talented enough that he could develop elsewhere, he was viewed as unlikely to be in the Thunder’s long-term plans even if they had kept him through the deadline. The harsh reality is trades are part of the business.

The Suns’ perspective:

Phoenix’s primary, secondary and tertiary reasons for making this deal were financial. As Luke Adams details in our glossary entry, the NBA’s luxury tax is set up so that the penalties become increasingly punitive the further teams go beyond the tax line.

Trading Saric for Bazley saved the Suns approximately $20MM toward their estimated luxury tax payment. According to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom, the Suns are currently $22,249,841 over the tax with an estimated luxury tax bill of $53,436,904. And that’s after this trade was made.

Saric started to pick up steam prior to the deadline, was a key contributor to the team’s culture, and played a role in its run to the Finals a couple years ago. Would he have provided $20MM worth of value for the remainder of this season? In the most optimistic scenarios, maybe? But probably not.

Trading for Kevin Durant means there won’t be many minutes at power forward in the playoffs. Ditto at center behind Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have several options to explore backing up those frontcourt spots, including Torrey Craig, T.J. Warren, Ish Wainright, Jock Landale, Bismack Biyombo and Bazley.

Maybe the Suns like Bazley as a defender and believe he has untapped upside on offense. He’s still just 22 years old. But he had also only appeared in one of a possible seven games (for seven minutes) entering Wednesday’s matchup with his former team.

In all likelihood, Bazley’s role will be minor going forward. As a championship hopeful, the Suns can’t really afford to play him when it counts, because opposing teams dare him to shoot and he’s only converting 50% at the rim, which is in the sixth percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.

Given Phoenix’s cap situation going forward, plus its window of contention and where Bazley is at in his development, the odds of him receiving a qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent seem slim. If that scenario plays out, he would instead become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

The $4,975,371 TPE the Suns created as part of the deal could be used to acquire a player who makes more than the minimum at some point in the future. Losing one second-round pick several years down the line isn’t a big deal, as a few are typically up for sale in every draft.

How far the Suns go in the postseason will ultimately be determined by their star players’ health. Obviously, Durant suffering an ankle sprain just three games after returning from a knee injury isn’t ideal, but they’ve still been on a roll lately, winning 16 of their past 21 games.

The Suns are betting they have enough depth behind Durant and Ayton that losing Saric won’t come back to bite them – a reasonable position, particularly considering how much money they saved by moving him.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 8th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Rory Maher

Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks

2022/23: $14.32MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).

A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.

In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.

The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.

Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: $1.93MM team option
Stock: Up

The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.

Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?

As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.

Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies

2022/23: $11.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).

There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.

For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.

Tre Jones, G, Spurs

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Up

The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.

After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.

While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.

Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.

Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans

2022/23: $6.8MM
2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Down

A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.

Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.

He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

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