Hoops Rumors Originals

New Free Agency Rules Will Go Into Effect After Finals End

June 14th, 2024 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

It’s possible that Friday’s contest between the Celtics and Mavericks will be the final game of the 2023/24 NBA season, with Boston holding a 3-0 lead and looking to complete the sweep. If the Celtics do finish off the series tonight, we’ll get our first look at the new rules related to free agency negotiations that the NBA and players’ union implemented in their most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In past years, teams have been prohibited from negotiating new contracts with free agents prior to June 30 at 6:00 pm Eastern time. That timeline will still apply to teams who wish to speak to other clubs’ free agents, but for the first time, teams will be permitted to negotiate contracts with their own free agents beginning one day after the NBA Finals end. So if the Celtics win on Friday, those negotiations could begin for players around the league on Saturday.

The rule change should put teams in a better position to retain their own free agents. A year ago, for instance, one reason cited for the split between the Sixers and James Harden was Philadelphia’s insistence on waiting until June 30 to negotiate potential contract terms after being docked two second-round picks for jumping the gun on free agency in 2022. Harden reportedly felt as if he was being ignored by management and wasn’t confident the team would make him a lucrative contract offer, prompting him to pick up his player option and ask for a trade.

That type of situation should be easier to avoid now that teams will have an exclusive window between the end of the NBA Finals and the start of free agency on June 30 to talk to their own free agents.

Of course, it’s been considered an open secret over the years that teams and player agents are in contact before they’re legally permitted to be, which is why so many contract agreements (including some complex sign-and-trade deals) are reported in the hours – or even minutes – after free agency opens at 6:00 pm ET on June 30. It will be interesting to see whether that same pattern of reporting occurs the day after the Finals end — in other words, if the Celtics win tonight, will we get a flurry of new deals reported this weekend for free-agents-to-be who are returning to their own clubs? Or will those updates take a little longer to materialize?

Free agent contracts still can’t be officially finalized until after the July moratorium lifts on July 6, so a player who verbally agrees to re-sign with his current team on June 22 could change his mind during the next couple weeks before he officially puts pen to paper. We’ve seen that occur on occasion in the past with free agents who reach tentative deals between June 30 and July 6, then renege on them, but it’s pretty rare and will probably continue to happen infrequently going forward.

Players who won’t be free agents this offseason but who will become eligible to sign contract extensions on July 6 will also be permitted to talk to their current teams about new deals a day after the Finals end, ESPN’s Bobby Marks confirmed to Hoops Rumors.

Like this year’s free agents, those extension-eligible players would also have to wait until after the moratorium ends to formally complete a new contract, unless they’re already extension-eligible, in which case they’re allowed to talk to their respective teams even before the Finals end and can continue to negotiate up until June 30.

Players who will become extension-eligible sometime after July 6 won’t be able to open negotiations during that post-Finals window and will have to wait until the new league year to explore new deals with their clubs.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

June 13th, 2024 at 11:54am CST by Luke Adams

Several of the core contributors who played key roles during the Bucks‘ championship run in 2021 – including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton – have remained on the roster since then, but the team has struggled to replicate the success of that season.

After being bounced in the second round of the 2022 playoffs, the top-seeded Bucks were upset by the No. 8 Heat in the first round in 2023. Determined not to get complacent following that disappointing outcome, Milwaukee made two major changes last offseason, firing head coach Mike Budenholzer and replacing him with first-time head coach Adrian Griffin in the spring, then packaging Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, a future first-round pick, and a pair of first-round swaps for seven-time All-Star Damian Lillard just before training camp got underway.

To say the results were mixed would be generous. Griffin opened the season with a strong 30-13 (.698) record, but Milwaukee never seemed to be firing on all cylinders during that stretch, and the Bucks’ veteran players were reportedly questioning the new coach’s schemes, especially on defense. Griffin was replaced just halfway through his first season by Doc Rivers, with Bucks general manager Jon Horst citing Rivers’ championship experience and leadership as a better fit for the veteran roster.

Lillard, meanwhile, earned his eighth All-Star nod and led the Bucks with 7.0 assists per game, but his scoring average (24.3), field goal percentage (42.4%), and three-point percentage (35.4%) were all below his career rates and he didn’t mesh with Antetokounmpo quite as seamlessly as the club had hoped.

The addition of a gifted scorer and play-maker like Lillard to the roster helped Milwaukee improve its offensive rating from 15th in 2022/23 to sixth in ’23/24, but the loss of talented defenders like Holiday and Allen hurt. The Bucks’ defensive rating plummeted from fourth to 19th, bumping the club’s overall net rating from fifth down to 11th.

For a second straight year, the Bucks lost in the first round of the playoffs as the higher seed while Antetokounmpo dealt with an injury. After missing two-and-a-half games in the 2023 series vs. the Heat, Giannis was unavailable for the entire Eastern Conference quarterfinal vs. Indiana this spring. Without the two-time MVP – plus Lillard, who missed Games 4 and 5 – Milwaukee couldn’t keep up with the Pacers.

While there’s optimism that a full offseason with Rivers and Lillard will create more cohesion heading into the 2024/25 season, it’s hard to feel all that bullish about the Bucks’ championship potential with the current roster, based on how the last two years have played out. But barring cost-cutting moves, the club once again projects to operate over the second tax apron, limiting the front office’s options for pursuing upgrades, so better chemistry and better health luck may be Milwaukee’s best hopes for another deep playoff run.

The Bucks’ Offseason Plan

With a roster this expensive, it’s logical to wonder if any of the Bucks’ four highest-paid players could be on the move this summer. However, it seems safe to assume the team won’t be looking to move Antetokounmpo or Lillard.

Middleton, meanwhile, has been affected by injuries over the past two years, but he looked like his old self in the playoffs this spring, averaging 24.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game on .482/.355/.900 shooting vs. the Pacers despite receiving more defensive attention with Giannis out. If the Bucks are relatively confident they’ll get that version of Middleton going forward, as he enters his age-33 season, it doesn’t make sense to trade him.

That leaves Lopez, who will earn $23MM in his age-36 season. Those two numbers look a little scary alongside one another, but Lopez is only a year removed from finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and remains the kind of center every team is seeking — one who can space the floor on offense (he has a .369 3PT% over the past three seasons) and protect the rim on defense (2.3 BPG during that same three-year stretch). He’d certainly have positive trade value on his expiring contract, but it’s hard to see how moving him would make Milwaukee better.

The average age of the four-man core is somewhat concerning (only Antetokounmpo will be younger than 33 next season), but I’d be surprised if the Bucks don’t roll with that group for at least one more season. A year from now, with Lopez’s contract expired and Middleton facing a player option decision for 2025/26, the team will be in a better position to reassess its options.

Portis is one of the league’s best sixth men and is a relative bargain at $12.6MM, so he’ll almost certainly stay put too, leaving the Bucks to fill out the rest of the roster with players who can complement that strong top five.

That collection of complementary players could start with Connaughton, though his production has taken a hit since he enjoyed a career year in 2021/22 — he has averaged just 6.5 points per game on .411/.341/.717 shooting over the past two seasons. I expect the Bucks to explore the trade market to see if there’s a way to turn his $9.4MM contract into one or two more reliable role players (or one lesser-paid player and cap/tax relief), but they don’t have many draft assets left to attach to him to sweeten their offers.

Every single one of Milwaukee’s draft picks from 2025-30 has either been traded or is tied up in a swap. The team’s 2031 picks can be traded beginning in July, so either the first- or second-rounder (or both) could be packaged with Connaughton in an effort to find an upgrade. Under normal circumstances, I’d suggest the Bucks may prefer to preserve the 2031 first-rounder for a more significant move, but they’re so all-in on this team in the short term that they probably shouldn’t hang onto that pick too tightly if there’s a deal out there that clearly makes them better.

In order to fill out the rest of the rotation beyond their top six or seven players, there are only two real paths available to the Bucks: Signing veteran free agents and continuing to add and develop young talent. Let’s start with free agency.

Assuming they’re not able to shed salary, the Bucks will generally be limited to minimum-salary signings as a second-apron team (they’ll be able to offer most of their own free agents 20% above the minimum). Players unable to do better than that on the open market will certainly have interest in Milwaukee, since the team is a potential contender and will likely have rotation spots available.

Still, the minimum-salary pool is a limited one. Malik Beasley was a nice addition for the minimum last summer and I’m sure the Bucks would love to have him back, but he may draw interest at a higher price point than what Milwaukee can offer. The rest of the club’s free agents are probably once again in line for minimum deals, at best, so they’re candidates to be brought back, though there are red flags in each case.

Patrick Beverley‘s year came to an ugly end due to an incident with Indiana fans that resulted in a four-game suspension to open the 2024/25 season; Jae Crowder and Danilo Gallinari are in their mid-30s and aren’t the players they once were; Thanasis Antetokounmpo has a torn Achilles that will likely cost him most – if not all – of ’24/25. Of those four, Beverley would be the most useful on-court fit, if the Bucks are willing to give him another chance following his end-of-season meltdown.

As the Bucks explore the market for outside free agents, they could use another point guard, wing, and center. Jordan McLaughlin and Aaron Holiday are potential under-the-radar targets at the point; Justin Holiday and Cedi Osman would be intriguing options on the wing if they’re available for the minimum; Daniel Theis and Xavier Tillman are a couple options I like at center.

Milwaukee also has a handful of young players on team-friendly contracts and will have to determine whether they remain committed to MarJon Beauchamp, A.J. Green, Andre Jackson, and Chris Livingston. None of those four players logged more than 614 minutes last season, but they showed some promise, with Beauchamp, Green, and Jackson all shooting the ball well. Rivers isn’t exactly known as a player-development specialist, but if those youngsters continue to make strides, there should be room in the rotation for at least one or two of them.

If the Bucks are concerned about their luxury tax bill and their proximity to the aprons, Beauchamp would be the most logical trade candidate of that quartet, since his fully guaranteed salary of $2.73MM is the only one above the minimum — the team could save some money by swapping him out for a minimum-salary replacement.

The Bucks will also enter this year’s draft armed with the 23rd and 33rd overall picks, putting them in a good position to nab at least one player who could contribute immediately. This draft class isn’t top-heavy, but it has no shortage of seasoned college players who spent three, four, or five seasons at school and who should be able to transition to the NBA more smoothly than the average one-and-done prospect. That could work just fine for Milwaukee.

It wouldn’t shock me if the Bucks look to move down from No. 23 unless there’s a specific player they love at that spot. Trading that pick for a 2024 second-rounder and maybe a couple future second-rounders would help them begin to restock a bare cupboard of future draft assets and would be financially advantageous — a second-round pick would likely only count toward the cap and tax for approximately $1.16MM, whereas the 23rd pick would have a starting salary of about $2.95MM.

Marquette’s Tyler Kolek, Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman, Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II, Cal’s Jaylon Tyson, and Kansas’ Kevin McCullar are a few of the prospects who spent at least three years at college and who should be available late in the first round or early in the second for the Bucks.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($48,787,676)
Damian Lillard ($48,787,676)
Khris Middleton ($31,666,667)
- Middleton’s cap hit includes a $31,000,000 base salary and $666,667 in likely incentives.
Brook Lopez ($23,000,000)
Bobby Portis ($12,578,286)
Pat Connaughton ($9,423,869)
MarJon Beauchamp ($2,733,720)
Chris Livingston ($1,891,857)
Andre Jackson ($945,929)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Total: $179,815,680

Non-Guaranteed Salary

A.J. Green ($2,120,693)
- Green’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 8.
Andre Jackson ($945,928)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
Jaylin Galloway (two-way)
Ryan Rollins (two-way)
Total: $3,066,621

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

TyTy Washington: Non-Bird rights

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Washington will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

No. 23 overall pick ($2,951,760 cap hold)
No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $2,951,760

Extension-Eligible Players

Pat Connaughton (veteran)
Bobby Portis (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Thanasis Antetokounmpo ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
Malik Beasley ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Patrick Beverley ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Jae Crowder ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
Danilo Gallinari ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $10,468,185

Other Cap Holds

Goran Dragic ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Meyers Leonard ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Jeff Teague ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,961,359

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Bucks’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Bucks project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or either of their two existing trade exceptions. If they dip below the second apron, they would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

None

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

June 12th, 2024 at 2:28pm CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring CJ McCollum at the 2022 trade deadline, the Pelicans had long hoped for an extended period to evaluate what their roster looked like when fully healthy. They didn’t get it during the 2021/22 season, with Zion Williamson unavailable all year, including for the team’s first-round playoff loss to Phoenix. And they didn’t get it in ’22/23, when injuries limited Williamson to 29 games and Brandon Ingram to 45.

The Pelicans didn’t entirely avoid health issues in ’23/24, but they came about as close as they could realistically expect, with Williamson, Ingram, and McCollum each playing between 64 and 70 regular season games. A late-season knee injury limited Ingram’s effectiveness in the playoffs, and Williamson hurt his hamstring in the play-in tournament, sidelining him for the first-round series vs. the Thunder, but by that point, the Pelicans had gotten the extended evaluation period they’d hoped for, giving them a better idea of what they had.

So what was the verdict? Here’s what head of basketball operations David Griffin had to say in April at the end of New Orleans’ season:

“In the past, we’ve always erred on the side of continuity, and our takeaway has always been, ‘Let’s see this group healthy.’ I think we’ve seen it enough. I think we had a really, really good opportunity to see Zion play a career high in games. I think we saw it for segments of time well enough to understand that we’ve got a lot of work to do. Because it is a historically good Western Conference, there are teams that didn’t make the playoffs that are going to get radically better this offseason. We need to do the same. I think you’ll see a real sense of urgency from all of us to do that.

“… I want to be really, really clear. This is not going to be a summer of complacency. It’s time to get better.”

It’s an encouraging stance from Griffin, who could’ve lauded the Pelicans for their 49-33 regular season record, which was a seven-game improvement over the prior season and tied for the second-best record in franchise history. He could’ve used Ingram’s and Williamson’s late-season injuries as excuses for the lack of playoff success. But he (rightly) recognized that the current roster isn’t good enough to beat the very best teams in the West and that some changes are needed.

Fortunately for the Pelicans, they’re in a pretty good position to make those changes. The roster is chock full of tradable contracts and the club has an excess of future first-round draft picks — in addition to holding all their own future first-rounders, the Pels control the Lakers’ unprotected pick in 2025 and Milwaukee’s unprotected pick in 2027, as well as the right to swap first-rounders with the Bucks in 2026.

That’s not to say that the right moves are obvious or that upgrades will be easy, but the Pelicans are better positioned than some of their conference rivals to further bolster an already-strong roster this summer.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan

The Pelicans don’t necessarily have to make a move involving one of their three highest-paid players this summer, but there’s reason to believe they’ll seriously consider it. Williamson isn’t going anywhere and McCollum is probably more valuable to New Orleans than he would be on the trade market, but Ingram’s future with the franchise is far from certain.

The 2024/25 season will be the last of Ingram’s five-year, maximum-salary contract with the Pelicans, and reports have indicated the front office isn’t comfortable with the idea of offering the star forward a max extension that would start at 30% of the cap (rather than 25%, like his previous deal).

Ingram has had five good seasons in New Orleans, but his game has plateaued to some extent since he made the All-Star team and earned Most Improved Player honors in 2020, and his three-point shooting has taken a step back. After making 38.6% of 6.2 three-pointers per game in his first two seasons with the Pelicans, the 26-year-old has knocked down just 35.4% of 3.9 tries per night in the past three seasons.

Those numbers are important, because with multiple non-shooters on the floor – Williamson and a center such as Jonas Valanciunas or Larry Nance – the team needs its other players to regularly take and make those outside shots to properly space the floor. If Ingram can’t reliably do that, the Pelicans will be hesitant to make another huge financial commitment to him, so he could find himself on the trade block in the coming weeks.

While there are a number of teams around the NBA who could benefit from Ingram’s skill set, it’s hard to envision a more ideal trade partner than Griffin’s former club, the Cavaliers, who will have to consider this offseason whether to move forward with overlapping pieces in both their backcourt (Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland) and frontcourt (Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley). Conveniently, Cleveland could use a big scoring wing, while two of the Pelicans’ biggest needs are a true point guard and a rim-protecting center.

The Pelicans have long had interest in Allen, having been linked to him during multiple previous transaction windows, and I think Garland would be a pretty good fit in New Orleans too. McCollum has been the team’s de facto point guard in recent years, but he’s not a natural distributor — both Williamson and Ingram averaged more assists per game than he did last season.

It remains to be seen just how open the Cavaliers will be to negotiating a deal with New Orleans. While the two teams look like an obvious match to me, Cleveland’s head of basketball operations Koby Altman has resisted the idea that a shake-up is necessary, telling reporters last month that he doesn’t anticipate “sweeping changes” to his roster this summer. We’ll see if he sticks to that stance.

As logical as a trade centered around Ingram and Allen would be from the Pelicans’ perspective, they’ll need to consider alternatives at the five if the Cavs aren’t open to a deal. Center is a greater priority than a point guard, where Williamson and McCollum can share ball-handling duties if need be. Williamson is an effective small-ball center in certain lineups, as is Nance, but rim protection isn’t either player’s specialty and New Orleans needs a bigger body to match up with the top centers in the Western Conference.

Valanciunas, who is headed to free agency, has his strengths – he’s an excellent interior scorer and rebounder – but those strengths don’t necessarily match up with the Pelicans’ needs, which means it’s very possible he won’t be back in New Orleans next season. Still, it will be tricky for the club to land a capable replacement, given its lack of cap room and a relative dearth of quality of big men on the free agent market.

Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein would be great, but the Pelicans have no feasible path to acquiring either of them. Goga Bitadze, Andre Drummond, and Mason Plumlee are among the other possible free agent fits, but they don’t inspire a whole lot of excitement. The club may have to rely on the trade market to acquire a starting-caliber five. While Allen will once again be at the top of New Orleans’ wish list, the club figures to kick the tires on several other veteran centers who might be available, including perhaps Clint Capela, Mitchell Robinson, Wendell Carter, and Robert Williams.

Ingram wouldn’t be the most logical centerpiece in a deal for some of those non-Allen centers, so the Pelicans will likely have to consider sending out Nance in certain scenarios. He’s a solid contributor, but he’ll be on an expiring $11.2MM contract and will be the only Pelican besides Williamson, Ingram, McCollumn, and Herbert Jones ($13MM) making more than about $6MM next season.

Jones – who made the All-Defensive First Team, improved his three-point percentage to 41.8%, and is under contract for three more seasons – is a long-term keeper, leaving Nance as the most logical salary-matching piece in a mid-sized deal that doesn’t involve Ingram.

Whether or not Ingram is traded, the Pelicans will want to find a way to get young sharpshooters Trey Murphy and Jordan Hawkins more playing time. Murphy, who averaged a career-high 14.8 points per game and is a career 39.2% three-point shooter, appears on the verge of a true breakout and is an ideal complement to Williamson, given his ability to space the floor. Moving Ingram could clear a path for the fourth-year sharpshooter to move into the starting lineup on a permanent basis (he started 23 of 57 games last season) while also creating the cap flexibility to comfortably lock him up long-term.

Murphy will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and I expect the Pelicans will be motivated to work out a deal sooner rather than later, since his value will likely only to continue to rise as he takes on a greater role. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Murphy to match or exceed the five-year, $135MM extension Devin Vassell signed last fall, but a payday in the range of $20-25MM per year is realistic. A new deal for Murphy would begin in 2025/26, just as Ingram’s current contract expires.

As for Hawkins, last year’s 14th overall pick didn’t have a significant role as a rookie but acquitted himself reasonably well when he played, converting 36.6% of his three-pointers. He’ll need to become more of a threat inside the arc and work on his defense, but Hawkins looks like a rotation piece going forward and will be on a team-friendly contract for three more seasons.

Naji Marshall is an underrated three-and-D wing who has been a bargain on a minimum-salary contract for the Pelicans since the 2020/21 season and offered a reminder of his value this spring when he averaged more minutes per game in the play-win over Sacramento and the first-round series vs. Oklahoma City than he did during the regular season. He’s due for a raise as an unrestricted free agent though, and with New Orleans starting to face a cap crunch and looking to find more minutes for Murphy and Hawkins, Marshall could be the odd man out. The Pels would certainly welcome him back if the price is right, but I expect the 26-year-old to draw mid-level interest in free agency.

Jose Alvarado‘s contract situation will also be worth keeping an eye on this summer. The Pelicans hold an affordable $2MM team option on Alvarado for next season, but picking it up isn’t a no-brainer, since doing so would put the guard on track for unrestricted free agency in 2025. Turning down the option would allow New Orleans to control Alvarado’s restricted free agency, ensuring that he doesn’t go anywhere, even if it would mean paying him more in 2024/25.

This decision could go either way, but my guess is that the team will simply exercise Alvarado’s option, locking in his $2MM salary. That will put the Pelicans in better position to navigate the cap in ’24/25, and they could still negotiate a possible extension with Alvarado during the season. While it would increase the risk of him getting away a year from now, he’s not such a crucial part of the long-term plans that New Orleans can’t take that risk, especially if former lottery pick Dyson Daniels continues to develop into a more consistent two-way threat in the backcourt.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Zion Williamson ($36,725,670)
Brandon Ingram ($36,016,200)
CJ McCollum ($33,333,333)
Herbert Jones ($12,976,362)
Larry Nance Jr. ($11,205,000)
Dyson Daniels ($6,059,520)
Trey Murphy ($5,159,854)
Jordan Hawkins ($4,525,680)
E.J. Liddell ($2,120,693)
Total: $148,122,312

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Matt Ryan ($2,196,970)
Malcolm Hill (two-way)
Total: $2,196,970

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
Jose Alvarado ($1,988,598): Bird rights
- Alvarado’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
Total: $4,185,568

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

Dereon Seabron: Early Bird rights

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Pelicans, Seabron’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). That offer would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 21 overall pick ($3,202,560 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,202,560

Extension-Eligible Players

Jose Alvarado (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
Brandon Ingram (veteran)
Naji Marshall (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
CJ McCollum (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of September 26.
Trey Murphy (rookie scale)
Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of October 1.
Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Jonas Valanciunas ($23,152,500 cap hold): Bird rights
Naji Marshall ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
Cody Zeller ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $27,339,774

Other Cap Holds

Willy Hernangomez ($4,642,804 cap hold)
Tony Snell ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Gary Clark ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Jared Harper ($1,867,722 cap hold)
James Nunnally ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $12,339,607

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Pelicans’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pelicans project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
Trade exception: $5,722,116

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Waivers

June 12th, 2024 at 12:01pm CST by Luke Adams

When an NBA team cuts a player, he doesn’t immediately become a free agent. Instead, the player is placed on waivers, which serves as a sort of temporary holding ground as the other 29 teams decide if they want to try to add him to their roster.

A player remains on waivers for at least 48 hours after he is officially cut by his team. During that time, a team can place a waiver claim in an attempt to acquire the player. If two or more clubs place a claim, the team with the worst record takes priority (during the offseason and up until December 1, records from the previous season determine waiver order).

If a team claims a player off waivers, it assumes his current contract and is on the hook for the remainder of his salary. The claiming team also pays a $1,000 fee to the NBA office. If no claims are placed on the player, he clears waivers at 4:00 pm Central time two days after his release (or three days later, if he was cut after 4:00 pm CT) and becomes an unrestricted free agent.

While the waiver format is simple enough, not every team will have the salary cap flexibility to make a claim for any waived player it wants. There are only a handful of instances in which a club is able to claim a player off waivers:

The team has enough cap room to accommodate the player’s entire current-season salary.
The team has a traded player exception worth at least the player’s salary.
The team has a disabled player exception worth at least the player’s salary, and he’s in the last year of his contract.
The player’s contract is for one or two seasons and he’s paid the minimum salary.
The player is on a two-way contract.

Since most NBA teams go over the cap and sizable TPEs and DPEs are somewhat rare, the majority of players who are claimed off waivers are either on minimum-salary contracts or two-way deals. Claiming those players simply requires an open roster slot.

More often than not though, waived players go unclaimed. In that case, the player’s original team remains on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Unless the player is in the final year of his contract and is waived after August 31, his club has the option of “stretching” his remaining cap hit(s) over multiple years using the stretch provision, which we explain in a separate glossary entry. A team that waives a player and uses the stretch provision on him cannot reacquire that player until after his contract would have originally expired.

In the case of any player without a fully guaranteed contract, the non-guaranteed portion of a player’s salary is removed from a club’s cap immediately once the player is waived.

When a player is “bought out” by his club, he’s placed on waivers as part of the agreement. He and his team agree to adjust the guaranteed portion of his contract, reducing the amount owed to the player by the team, assuming he clears waivers. If he’s claimed by a new team, that buyout agreement is voided, since his new club would take on his full remaining salary.

Here are several more notes related to waiver rules:

Players can be waived and claimed off waivers during the July moratorium.
A player waived after March 1 is ineligible for the postseason if he signs with a new team.
A player on an expiring contract (or a contract that could become expiring as a result of an option decision) can’t be waived between the end of the regular season and the start of the next league year. He also can’t be waived at the end of the regular season if he won’t clear waivers before the date of each team’s final regular season game.
A player claimed off waivers can’t be traded for 30 days. If he’s claimed during the offseason, he can’t be traded until the 30th day of the regular season.
A player on a 10-day contract who is cut before the end of that 10-day period does not have to pass through waivers.
If a player is traded and then is waived by his new team, he can’t re-sign with his former club until one year after the trade or until the July 1 after his original contract would have expired, whichever is earlier.
- Note: If a player is traded twice before being waived, he’s allowed to re-sign with the team that first traded him.
A player who has Early Bird or full Bird rights retains Early Bird rights if he’s claimed off waivers.
If a team makes a successful waiver claim, it doesn’t lose its spot in the waiver order — the 30th-ranked team at the end of a season remains atop the waiver priority list until December 1 of that year, even if that team makes multiple offseason claims.
A team with a full roster can submit a waiver claim and wouldn’t have to clear a spot on its roster for a claimed player until it’s determined that the claim is successful.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in past years.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 11th, 2024 at 10:32am CST by Luke Adams

Entering opening night last fall, the Heat were coming off one of the most unusual seasons in recent memory. They barely finished above .500 during the 2022/23 regular season, posting a negative net rating (-0.5) across 82 games, then narrowly survived the play-in tournament to earn the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. From there, they knocked off the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in their first three postseason series, coming within three wins of a championship before ultimately falling to Denver.

During the subsequent 2023/24 season, Erik Spoelstra repeatedly insisted that his team wasn’t counting on a repeat of the year before and was taking the regular season seriously rather than waiting to turn it on in the postseason. But injuries and inconsistency resulted in a pretty similar outcome. Miami won 46 games instead of 44 and outscored its opponents, but once again finished in the bottom half of the league in net rating and needed a win in its second play-in game to grab the No. 8 playoff seed.

This time around, there was no postseason magic for the Heat, who were missing star Jimmy Butler due to a knee injury and managed just a single win over the top-seeded Celtics before their season came to an unceremonious end.

On one hand, the Heat are just one year removed from winning the East and perhaps could have made a deeper run this spring with a healthy Butler and a more favorable first-round matchup. But that’s a rosy view of their situation. The regular season results show that this team has been a relatively middle-of-the-pack squad over the past two seasons and, with Butler entering his age-35 season, probably can’t consider itself a legitimate title contender without some tweaks to the roster.

Based on what’s transpired since their season ended (more on that below), I wouldn’t rule out major offseason changes for the Heat, but it’s not in their DNA to fully rebuild (they haven’t won fewer than 37 games since 2007/08). So even if next season’s roster looks quite a bit different than the ’23/24 group, the goal will be to get further in the 2025 playoffs than they did this year.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

The most pressing question facing the Heat this summer is whether or not Butler will still be on the roster on opening night. A breakup would be a bit of a surprise, given that the past five years have seemed like a near-perfect marriage between one of the NBA’s most competitive stars and a franchise that prides itself on its hard-working culture.

But shortly after the Heat’s season ended, word broke that Butler would be seeking another maximum-salary extension this summer, looking to replace his 2025/26 player option with a new two-year deal worth approximately $113MM. Asked at his end-of-season press conference about that possibility, longtime team president Pat Riley didn’t explicitly say whether or not the Heat would be willing to put that offer on the table, but suggested they wouldn’t exactly be eager to do so.

“It’s a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources, unless you have someone who is going to be available every night,” Riley said, referring to an injury history that has forced Butler to miss at least 15 games in every season since he arrived in Miami in 2019.

Riley also didn’t approve of a viral video that showed Butler claiming the Heat would’ve been able to beat Boston and New York if he’d been available to play in the postseason. The Heat president told reporters, “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut on the criticism of those teams.”

A thinner-skinned player might respond to those comments by submitting a trade request, but the ability to be frank and honest with one another is an important reason why the relationship between Butler and the Heat has worked. I wouldn’t expect him to seek a change of scenery this offseason due to hurt feelings. But if Miami is unwilling to put an appealing extension offer on the table this summer, he might become more inclined to weigh all his options as he enters the final stage of his career.

While the Heat would be under no obligation to move Butler if he asked to be traded, he showed earlier in his career in Minnesota that he can make life difficult for his current team if his demands aren’t met. Still, I’m not necessarily counting on the situation coming to a head this offseason. Miami would have a hard time turning Butler into a player – or multiple players – who could increase the club’s ceiling in 2024/25, and the 34-year-old has been in the league long enough to know that the grass isn’t always greener in a new environment.

Three-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo will also be extension-eligible this summer and looks like a better bet than Butler to get a maximum-salary offer from the Heat, given his edge in age (27 in July) and availability (he has missed more than 11 games just once in the past five seasons). A max deal for Adebayo would be worth approximately $165MM over three years. He could potentially become eligible for more years and more money with an All-NBA berth or a Defensive Player of the Year trophy next summer, but I could see the big man opting to lock in that long-term guaranteed money now.

If building around Butler and Adebayo remains the plan going forward, I’d expect some combination of Tyler Herro ($29MM), Terry Rozier ($24.9MM), and Duncan Robinson ($19.4MM) – and perhaps all three – to be mentioned in trade rumors this summer. As long as they’re able to operate below the second tax apron, the Heat would be permitted to aggregate those salaries in a trade for another star, and the franchise has made a habit of going star-hunting over the years, including in the 2023 offseason when its bid for Damian Lillard came up short.

Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland) and Atlanta (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray) are among the situations the Heat figure to keep an eye on this offseason, with Mitchell in particular having long been considered a prime target.

If Mitchell or another well-fitting impact player hits the trade market, it’s possible a rival suitor would outbid Miami, like the Bucks did last year with Lillard. But the team has some strong trade assets, including All-Rookie first-teamer Jaime Jaquez, 21-year-old forward Nikola Jovic, this year’s No. 15 overall pick, and at least one future first-rounder — the Heat have traded away their 2025 and 2027 first-rounders, but protections could push those picks back to 2026 and 2028, so only the ’30 pick can be traded unconditionally, though the club could offer a handful of first-round swaps.

The more prudent approach to the offseason might be to keep those youngsters, who are on team-friendly contracts for multiple years, trust the scouting department to find another potential gem at No. 15, and perhaps attempt to make a less significant move involving one of Herro, Rozier, or Robinson. There’s a good deal of overlap in that trio — both Herro and Robinson provide most of their value with floor-spacing and outside shooting, while both Herro and Rozier are score-first guards – so if the Heat could find a way to turn one of them into more of a two-way wing or a traditional point guard, it would help balance the roster.

The Heat will have a sizable hole to fill on the wing if they’re unable to re-sign Caleb Martin, who is expected to turn down a $7.1MM player option, and Haywood Highsmith, who is headed for unrestricted free agency. Both players are due for raises and could be targeted by teams who have the full mid-level exception available.

The situation with those two players feels awfully reminiscent of the one the club faced with Max Strus and Gabe Vincent a year ago, when luxury tax concerns limited what Miami was able to offer that free agent duo. Strus ultimately agreed to join the Cavaliers, while Vincent signed with the Lakers.

The Heat already have over $163MM in guaranteed money on their books for seven players in 2024/25, and that figure would rise by another $14MM+ if Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, and Thomas Bryant exercise their player options and the team hangs onto its first-round pick. That would push team salary above $177MM, essentially assuring the Heat will operate over the first tax apron ($178.7MM) even without new deals for Martin or Highsmith.

Retaining either player would likely increase team salary beyond the $189.5MM second apron, so Miami will have a decision to make. It can resign itself to losing two solid role players for a second straight summer, try to shed salary elsewhere to create room under the second apron to bring back Martin and/or Highsmith, or simply re-sign both players and commit to being a second-apron team, accepting the roster-building restrictions that come with that.

None of those options are ideal, and the third one seems especially unlikely, given that the Heat will want to maintain the flexibility to aggregate salaries if a star becomes available. I expect the club to explore the second path in an effort to retain at least one of those two free agents, but if that’s not possible, Heat fans can at least take solace in the fact that the front office has done a good job over the years finding low-cost replacements to fill out the rotation when certain role players get too expensive.

The Heat will also benefit from the fact that there’s never a shortage of veterans who want to play in Miami due to a combination of the weather, the culture, and the organization’s distaste for rebuilding. Richardson missed half the season due to an injury and Bryant wasn’t quite as good a fit as the front office had hoped, but those are high-quality players for the minimum-salary tier, as is Love. Whether or not those guys opt in to return for another season, the Heat will likely head back to the free agent market in search of more minimum-salary bargains to fill out the back end of their roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Jimmy Butler ($48,798,677)
Bam Adebayo ($34,848,340)
Tyler Herro ($29,000,000)
Terry Rozier ($24,924,126)
Duncan Robinson ($19,406,000)
Jaime Jaquez ($3,685,800)
Nikola Jovic ($2,464,200)
Total: $163,127,143

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Orlando Robinson ($2,120,693)
- Robinson’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15.
Total: $2,120,693

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

Caleb Martin ($7,126,900): Bird rights
Kevin Love ($4,027,525): Early Bird rights
Josh Richardson ($3,051,153): Non-Bird rights
Thomas Bryant ($2,845,342): Non-Bird rights
Total: $17,050,920

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Heat, Cain’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). That offer would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 15 overall pick ($4,244,160 cap hold)
No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $4,244,160

Extension-Eligible Players

Bam Adebayo (veteran)
Jimmy Butler (veteran)
Haywood Highsmith (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Caleb Martin (veteran)
- Player option must be exercised.
Duncan Robinson (veteran)
Terry Rozier (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Haywood Highsmith ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
Patty Mills ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Delon Wright ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Other Cap Holds

Udonis Haslem ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Jordan Mickey ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Dwyane Wade ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Heat project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they move below the first apron, they would gain access to the bi-annual exception ($4,681,000) and the full mid-level exception ($12,859,000) instead of the taxpayer mid-level exception and would regain access to their three trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $9,450,000 and expires on July 8). If they surpass the second tax apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer MLE.

Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 10th, 2024 at 2:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Mat Ishbia made it clear in February 2023 when he took over majority control of the Suns from Robert Sarver that he was prepared to spend aggressively (both in terms of money and trade assets) in a way the team’s previous owner never did. One of his very first moves was to approve a massive deal for star forward Kevin Durant at the 2023 deadline. He doubled down on that all-in strategy by signing off on a blockbuster trade for Bradley Beal last offseason.

The moves left Phoenix with a top-heavy roster headed by three players who will earn a combined $150MM+ in 2024/25 when Devin Booker‘s new super-max extension begins. That trio will surpass the projected $141MM cap on its own, and once the Suns account for salaries for Jusuf Nurkic ($18.1MM), Grayson Allen ($15.6MM), and Nassir Little ($6.8MM), their team salary will exceed $191MM, putting them over the projected second tax apron of $189.5MM with just six players. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players will push team salary well past the $200MM mark.

Operating over the second apron means two things: Phoenix will be on the hook for a huge luxury tax bill and will also face major restrictions when it comes to making roster moves. Ishbia clearly doesn’t mind writing a big check for luxury tax penalties, so the money shouldn’t be an issue, but those roster-building restrictions are concerning. This team was hardly dominant in its first year together. The Suns clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the season, then were swept out of the first round. The front office can’t simply run it back with the same roster.

Changes are needed, and those changes will be difficult to enact as a second-apron team. The Suns won’t have the mid-level or bi-annual exception at their disposal to sign free agents. They can’t acquire a player via sign-and-trade or use previously generated trade exceptions. They can make trades, but they won’t be able to take back more salary than they send out. They also can’t aggregate player contracts (e.g. trading Nurkic and Little for a $25MM player) and they’re prohibited from offering cash to sweeten an offer.

President of basketball operations James Jones has had a nice run of success in Phoenix since being named the permanent general manager in 2019, serving as the architect of a team that snapped a 10-year playoff drought, made an NBA Finals, and has averaged roughly 50 wins per season over the last four years. But figuring out how to meaningfully upgrade the current version of the roster might be his most challenging assignment yet.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

When Phoenix’s season came to an end in April, league observers and pundits were quick to suggest that the team’s big three of Durant, Booker, and Beal should be broken up. There’s a logical case to be made for that path. The three stars are all pretty ball-dominant and their fit together is just OK, not great. Trading one of them for two or three lesser-paid players could help balance the roster both on the cap sheet and on the court.

It’s a strategy that sounds better in theory than in practice though. Of the three, Beal is probably the one you’d want to move, but he has a no-trade clause that essentially allows him to control the process, and his value has declined since he last made an All-Star team in 2021. He’s still a talented scorer (his .513/.430/.813 shooting line last season was especially impressive) and is a solid play-maker, but he’s not a plus defender and he’s owed $161MM over the next three seasons. The Suns didn’t have to give up a huge package to acquire him and can’t expect one back if they try to send him elsewhere.

The Suns could command a more substantial haul if they were willing to trade Durant or Booker, but those guys are top-20 players in the NBA, so it’s hard to envision a deal in which one of them is traded and Phoenix is able to increase its championship odds for 2025. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that a May report indicated that the Suns plan to hang onto their big three, which Jones confirmed in a radio appearance later in the month.

If Durant, Booker, and Beal aren’t going anywhere, that leaves Nurkic, Allen, and Little as the likeliest trade chips, though we can probably rule out Allen, who won’t be trade-eligible until October after signing an extension in April and whose three-and-D skill set makes him a valuable role player for the Suns. Little’s usefulness as a trade chip, meanwhile, is limited, since his $6.75MM salary can’t be aggregated, meaning he could only bring back a player earning less than that amount. The same is true of Nurkic, though his larger cap hit ($18.125MM) means the pool of players he could be traded for is much larger.

Unfortunately for the Suns, neither Nurkic nor Little has a ton of trade value on his own. I think Nurkic might be slightly underrated in some ways (he’s a very good rebounder and passer) but he’s obviously not the sort of versatile center who will help you space the floor on offense or guard out to the perimeter on defense, so he’s not a bargain at $18MM+ per year. Little showed some promise in Portland but wasn’t good in his first season in Phoenix, averaging a career-low 3.4 points per game as his three-point percentage dipped to just 30.0%.

The Suns would have to attach a sweetener to either player to realistically land an upgrade. Cash is off limits and Phoenix has traded away most of its future draft assets. However, the club could technically still offer this year’s No. 22 pick (the trade would have to be finalized after a selection is made), as well as its 2031 first-rounder (beginning in July). Would one of those picks along with Nurkic be enough for a meaningful addition?

Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports explored this topic recently, suggesting 20 hypothetical trades involving Nurkic and a first-round pick, but most of them either look like long shots or don’t necessarily do a whole lot for the Suns. Of Bourguet’s ideas, the one I find most compelling for both sides might be a deal with Charlotte for a less expensive center (Nick Richards), plus another role player or two. A package of Richards, Cody Martin, and Tre Mann, for instance, would (barely) fit within Nurkic’s outgoing salary — all three players could have roles in Phoenix, but it’s not such a talented trio that the retooling Hornets should realistically expect a better return than what the Suns could offer.

Attaching both movable first-rounders to Nurkic might net a stronger return than that Hornets example, but there’s certainly a ceiling on what the Suns can expect to do on the trade market. That’s why it’s so crucial that they re-sign free agent forward Royce O’Neale. While Phoenix can’t sign an outside free agent for more than the minimum, the team will have O’Neale’s Bird rights, allowing the front office to offer him any salary up to the max.

Of course, O’Neale won’t get nearly that much, but he’ll have some leverage to get a player-friendly deal out of the Suns, who would have no means to replace him with a comparable player if he leaves. A recent report suggested Phoenix might have to offer a three- or four-year deal to ensure O’Neale doesn’t sign with a rival suitor willing to offer him a comparable (or higher) starting salary on a shorter-term contract.

Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, Drew Eubanks, and Damion Lee will have decisions to make on minimum-salary player options, which will help determine how many back-end roster spots the Suns have to fill. Some of those players (ie. Lee) seem likelier to opt in than others (ie. Gordon), but even if all of them return, the Suns won’t have a full roster and will likely need to make multiple minimum-salary signings.

I’d expect the team to take the same approach in free agency that it did a year ago, offering second-year player options to many of its top FA targets, essentially guaranteeing them up to $5-6MM rather than just offering a single-year minimum salary. Jones and his basketball operations department will look to improve upon last year’s hit rate on minimum-salary players, as signings like Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, and Chimezie Metu didn’t really work out.

While the Suns have few tools to make significant changes to their roster without taking a step backward, no Collective Bargaining Agreement language prevented them from making a major move on the sidelines, where Frank Vogel was fired just one season into a five-year contract worth a reported $31MM.

Phoenix didn’t conduct a lengthy search for Vogel’s replacement, zeroing in quickly on Mike Budenholzer and awarding him a five-year, $50MM deal. The hope will be that even if the 2024/25 roster ends up looking pretty similar to last year’s, Budenholzer will be able to get more out of it than Vogel did.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Kevin Durant ($51,179,021)
- Durant’s cap hit includes a $49,856,021 base salary and $1,323,000 in likely incentives.
Bradley Beal ($50,203,930)
Devin Booker ($49,350,000)
- Booker’s cap hit is a tentative figure based on 35% of a projected $141MM cap.
Jusuf Nurkic ($18,125,000)
Grayson Allen ($15,625,000)
Nassir Little ($6,750,000)
David Roddy ($2,847,240)
Total: $194,080,191

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

Eric Gordon ($3,356,271): Non-Bird rights
Josh Okogie ($2,956,734): Early Bird rights
Damion Lee ($2,845,342): Early Bird rights
Drew Eubanks ($2,654,644): Non-Bird rights
Total: $11,812,991

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract, Lee’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). It would include a small partial guarantee. Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Azubuike will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

No. 22 overall pick ($3,074,640 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,074,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Kevin Durant (veteran)
Royce O’Neale (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Royce O’Neale ($18,050,000 cap hold): Bird rights
Bol Bol ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Isaiah Thomas ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Thaddeus Young ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $24,330,911

Other Cap Holds

Terrence Ross ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Gabriel Lundberg ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,961,359

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Suns project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or any of their three existing trade exceptions.

None

Community Shootaround: Free Agent Centers

June 9th, 2024 at 12:07pm CST by Rory Maher

When looking through the list of 2024 free agents, it quickly becomes evident that many of the top players tend to skew on the older side. LeBron James will be 40 at the end of December, James Harden and DeMar DeRozan both turn 35 in August, and Paul George is 34.

The top two free agent centers this year — Nic Claxton and Isaiah Hartenstein — are 25 and 26, however, which is interesting. They’re also both unrestricted free agents.

While reports have indicated Claxton is expected to re-sign with the Nets, perhaps for a deal in the range of $20-25MM annually, Hartenstein’s future is a little more cloudy because the Knicks only hold his Early Bird rights. That means they are limited to offering him a maximum of about $72.5MM over four years, and it’s possible he could get more than that from another team.

Unlike Tyrese Maxey, who is a lock to return to Philadelphia on a max deal in restricted free agency, it’s possible Precious Achiuwa (25 in September) could sign an offer sheet with another team and the Knicks might not match, given their financial situation now and going forward. Achiuwa is more of a four/five than a true center, but he’s another intriguing big man on the market.

Jalen Smith, 24, had an outstanding regular season off the bench for Indiana, but was largely a non-factor in the playoffs, having been supplanted in the rotation by Isaiah Jackson. That was an interesting development, because Smith seems pretty likely to exceed the $5.4MM player option he holds for 2024/25 in free agency (Jackson, on the other hand, still has another year left on his rookie scale contract).

Goga Bitadze, who turns 25 next month, is another young center who flew under the radar a bit in ’23/24. He started the early portion of the season while Wendell Carter was recovering from hand surgery and played pretty well, particularly defensively, averaging 7.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 33 games (23.9 minutes). The Magic have Carter, Jonathan Isaac and Moritz Wagner ahead of Bitadze on the depth chart, so he might look for a larger role elsewhere.

Xavier Tillman (25) and James Wiseman (23) are among the other young free agent centers in 2024, with veterans Jonas Valanciunas and Andre Drummond arguably the top big men over 30 available. Former No. 2 overall pick Wiseman could be restricted if Detroit tenders him a $7.7MM qualifying offer, though that seems unlikely to happen.

What do you think of this year’s group of free agent centers? Will Hartenstein stay with the Knicks or leave for more money elsewhere? What about Achiuwa? Did we overlook anyone? Head to the comments to let us know what you think.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 8th, 2024 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second time in three years, the Sixers opened their season with a major trade request hanging over the team. Unlike in 2021/22, when the acrimonious Ben Simmons saga dragged out all the way to the February trade deadline, Daryl Morey was able to resolve James Harden‘s trade demand early in the fall, reaching an agreement during the second week of the regular season to send the former MVP to the Clippers in exchange for a package of role players and draft picks.

It’s highly unlikely that any of those future draft picks will ever turn into a player of Harden’s caliber, and none of the four veterans sent to Philadelphia in the swap figure to be long-term keepers. But with a disgruntled player on a pricey expiring deal, the 76ers didn’t have much leverage in trade talks and did well to acquire players who fit the roster in the short term and assets that could be flipped in future moves — one of the players Philadelphia received from L.A., Marcus Morris, was sent out at the trade deadline in a deal for Buddy Hield, for instance.

Perhaps even more important than the assets the Sixers got for Harden was the opportunity his exit created for fourth-year guard Tyrese Maxey. With Harden no longer in the picture, Maxey saw his usage rate increase to a career-high 28.0% and responded by posting new career bests in points (25.9), assists (6.2), and rebounds (3.7) per game, among other categories. His scoring efficiency took a hit, but his .450/.373/.868 shooting line was still just fine, and the 23-year-old was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player for his star turn.

Maxey already looked like a future building block in Philadelphia, but his 2023/24 performance proved he’s capable of being a legitimate No. 2 to former MVP Joel Embiid. The Sixers had a 29-7 record in the games those two played together and outscored opponents by +12.4 points per 100 possessions when they shared the court.

Unfortunately, Embiid’s injury issues flared up again, with a meniscus tear limiting him to 39 regular season games and reducing his mobility and effectiveness in the postseason. For the first time since 2020, the 76ers didn’t win a playoff series this spring, but that early postseason exit wasn’t cause for panic, since the front office had already anticipated making major roster changes during the offseason.

Having dumped P.J. Tucker‘s contract in the Harden trade, the Sixers will head into this summer with only one guaranteed contract (Embiid) on their cap for 2024/25 and Maxey poised to re-sign as a restricted free agent. Besides those two players, no one else who finished the season with Philadelphia is a lock to be back in the fall.

That’s a lot of uncertainty entering an offseason, which is a little scary, but the duo of Embiid and Maxey is a great place to start. So even if the Sixers miss out on their top target(s) and have to turn to Plan B or C, they’re well-positioned to take a step forward following a 47-35 season in ’23/24.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Taking into account Embiid’s salary, Maxey’s cap hold, the cap hold for the No. 16 overall pick, and rookie-minimum cap holds for nine empty roster spots, the Sixers could generate up to about $62MM in cap room. That figure, which would rely on renouncing all the team’s current free agents and waiving players on non-guaranteed salaries (including Paul Reed), could rise to nearly $65MM if Philadelphia also trades away its draft pick. The club will be able to go over the cap to re-sign Maxey to a maximum-salary contract after it uses up its room.

$65MM is a ton of cap space, but it would disappear quickly with a major move or two. The Sixers’ top target is reportedly Paul George, who can become an unrestricted free agent this summer if he doesn’t reach an extension agreement with the Clippers and turns down his 2024/25 player option. It’s unclear how viable a move to Philadelphia is for George – he may just be using the 76ers for leverage purposes to get the deal he wants in Los Angeles – but if they hope to lure him away from his hometown, the Sixers would have to offer the star forward a maximum-salary contract that would start at a projected $49.35MM.

Jimmy Butler has also frequently been cited as a prime target for Morey, though the former Sixer would need to be acquired via trade, which wouldn’t be easy — the Heat aren’t looking to rebuild, so if the 76ers offered a package heavy on draft assets and cap relief, Miami would have to be confident they could turn those assets into another impact player. If Philadelphia could find a way to pry Butler away from the Heat, it would mean accommodating his $48.8MM salary.

Landing a star like George or Butler would be a home run for the Sixers, since either player would be an ideal fit on the wing alongside Embiid and Maxey. But it would reduce Philadelphia’s remaining cap room to approximately $13-17MM, putting the team in position to realistically make just two or three more signings above the minimum — one or two using that remaining cap room, and another one using the $8MM room exception.

The result would be an awfully top-heavy roster, similar to the one the Suns had this past season. You could certainly make the case that Maxey, George (or Butler), and Embiid would fit together better than Phoenix’s three stars do. However, there would be a lot of pressure on Philadelphia’s stars to stay healthy, which Embiid hasn’t been able to do in the past — neither George nor Butler has the best track record on that front either.

If the Sixers don’t land a star using their cap room – Brandon Ingram and OG Anunoby have been mentioned as other possible targets who wouldn’t be quite as highly paid in 2024/25 as George or Butler – the expectation is that they’ll focus on signing useful role players to lucrative short-term contracts, similar to the one Bruce Brown got from Indiana last summer.

With several teams chasing Brown using the full mid-level exception (starting at $12.4MM), the Pacers took advantage of their cap room to give him a two-year deal that started at $22MM and included a second-year team option worth $23MM. It made Brown an ideal trade chip when the club needed a salary-matching piece for Pascal Siakam a few months later. And if that trade opportunity hadn’t arisen, Indiana would have had the option of clearing Brown’s salary off the books after just one year, regaining cap flexibility.

If Philadelphia takes a similar route, free agents like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk look like a few of the most logical targets. The Nuggets and Warriors would have luxury-tax and apron concerns if they have to match a big starting salary for Caldwell-Pope or Thompson, respectively, while the Kings are limited to offering Monk a starting salary in the $17.4MM range since they only hold his Early Bird rights.

A tier or two below those guys, Caleb Martin, Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Reggie Jackson, Precious Achiuwa, and Malik Beasley are among the other free agents whose current teams may face financial restrictions due to their proximity to the tax (or, in Beasley’s case, a lack of Bird rights). If he hadn’t already had a brief stint in Philadelphia, I’d view center Andre Drummond as another ideal target for the Sixers, since he could back up Embiid and slide into the starting five if and when the star center is unavailable. I still think he makes a lot of sense.

While going this direction could be a more prudent path than spending nearly $50MM on a single player entering his mid-30s, it might cost upwards of $50MM in 2024/25 to land a pair of those top-tier Plan B targets (KCP, Thompson, and Monk), so the Sixers’ cap room could disappear almost as quickly.

No matter what direction Philadelphia goes with its cap space, it will be crucial for the team to nail its minimum-salary signings once its room dries up. That was one of the Suns’ issues this past season — they signed eight players to minimum-salary contracts last summer, but fewer than half of them earned regular minutes. The Sixers will aim to do better with the back half of their roster.

Of the players who finished this past season in Philadelphia, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and Cameron Payne are among the useful role players who might be willing to return for the veteran’s minimum (though I think some of them could do better than that on the open market). There will be other options around the league as well, especially if the Sixers can offer them a shot at regular minutes and a chance to contend.

Tobias Harris, Hield, and De’Anthony Melton aren’t minimum-salary players, so if the Sixers want to bring any of them back, it would cut into their cap room. Harris and Hield seem unlikely to return though, meaning Melton is the only one Philadelphia might have to account for.

The versatile defensive-minded guard made $8MM last season and would be a great re-addition at that price again using the room exception. If he’d finished the season healthy, Melton would definitely have stronger offers than that, but given the back issues that limited him to six games after January 12, that’s no longer a sure thing, which could work in Philadelphia’s favor.

I don’t mind the idea of the 76ers keeping the No. 16 overall pick, since it would give them an opportunity to get a team-friendly four-year contract on their books, but there are scenarios in which I think a trade makes more sense. One of my favorite concepts is a potential deal with the Wizards – who are said to be seeking another first-round pick – for Corey Kispert, a sharpshooter who was drafted by the previous front office in Washington and is in line for a rookie scale extension this offseason.

To be clear, I have no insider information suggesting the Sixers and Wizards are exploring such a trade, and it’s possible Philadelphia would have to sweeten the pot beyond offering a mid-first-rounder in a weak draft. But a trade target like Kispert would make perfect sense, since he’d take up only a small fraction of the team’s cap room this summer (he’s owed $5.7MM in 2024/25, not much more than the $4MM cap hold for the No. 16 pick) and then would get a raise in a year, when the 76ers would be in position to pay him.

With so many options available to them this offseason, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the Sixers’ offseason will play out. But that unpredictability is what will make them one of the most fun clubs to follow in the next month or two, with the pressure on Morey to get Embiid (who turned 30 in March) the supporting cast he needs to vie for his first championship.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Joel Embiid ($51,415,938)
Total: $51,415,938

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Paul Reed ($7,723,000)
Ricky Council ($1,891,857)
Total: $9,614,857

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

Jeff Dowtin ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
- Dowtin’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

Tyrese Maxey ($8,486,620 qualifying offer / $13,031,760 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $13,031,760

Two-Way Free Agents

Terquavion Smith: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

No. 16 overall pick ($4,032,240 cap hold)
No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $4,032,240

Extension-Eligible Players

Robert Covington (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Joel Embiid (veteran)
Tobias Harris (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Buddy Hield (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
KJ Martin (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
De’Anthony Melton (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Tobias Harris ($49,350,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Harris’ cap hold will be his maximum salary (35% of the 2024/25 cap).
Buddy Hield ($29,767,647 cap hold): Bird rights
Nicolas Batum ($22,250,554 cap hold): Bird rights
Robert Covington ($22,215,385 cap hold): Bird rights
De’Anthony Melton ($15,200,000 cap hold): Bird rights
Mohamed Bamba ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Kyle Lowry ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
KJ Martin ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
Kelly Oubre ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Cameron Payne ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $149,251,771

Other Cap Holds

Mike Scott ($9,510,165 cap hold)
Dewayne Dedmon ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Paul Millsap ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Kyle O’Quinn ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Myles Powell ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $17,658,798

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Sixers project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce six trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $6,831,413) in order to use cap room.

Room exception: $8,006,000

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 7th, 2024 at 9:24pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings were one of the NBA’s feel-good stories of the 2022/23 season. First-year head coach Mike Brown led Sacramento to its best record (48-34) since 2005 and its first playoff berth since 2006, with no team scoring more points per 100 possessions (118.6) than the Kings.

In many ways, the sequel in 2023/24 was a worthy follow-up — despite dealing with injuries to a couple key role players down the stretch, the Kings won 46 games, registering consecutive seasons above .500 for the first time in nearly two decades.

But the vibes weren’t quite as good in Sacramento for a few reasons. For one, while Brown surely appreciated the improvements on defense (the Kings went from 24th in ’22/23 to 14th this past season), the No. 1 offense took a major step back (to 13th) and wasn’t the crowd-pleasing, well-oiled machine it was a year earlier.

More importantly, with the postseason drought over, the expectations were higher in Sacramento, where the goal was to take another step forward and perhaps win a playoff series. Instead, the Kings found themselves fighting for their postseason life in a more competitive Western Conference.

A year after their 48 wins comfortably earned them the No. 3 seed, the Kings claimed the No. 9 spot in the West despite winning only two fewer regular season games. They got some level of revenge against the Warriors – who eliminated them in the first round in 2023 – in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game, but fell to the Pelicans in the play-in game to determine the conference’s No. 8 seed, bringing their season to an end before the playoffs tipped off in earnest.

A team’s improvement isn’t always linear, so the slight downturn this season doesn’t mean this version of the Kings can’t continue to get better in 2024/25. With no dominant franchises far ahead of the pack in the West, the front office may not have to make major changes to the roster to become a legitimate contender. Still, Monte McNair and his basketball operations team figure to do all they can this summer to figure out how to upgrade the current group with somewhat limited resources.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan

The Kings took care of one of the most important items on their offseason to-do list a week ago, reaching an agreement on a multiyear extension for Brown. The veteran coach signed a four-year contract with the franchise when he was hired in 2022, but the final year was a mutual option, so he would’ve essentially been on an expiring deal in 2024/25 if negotiations between the two sides had reached an impasse, which briefly looked like it might happen last month.

Brown’s has yet to win a championship as a head coach, but his playoff résumé is still relatively strong, which bodes well for Sacramento going forward — he has a winning overall record (50-40) in the postseason and advanced beyond the first round for six straight seasons with the Cavaliers and Lakers. He’s also respected throughout the league, is one year removed from earning Coach of the Year honors, and is the best coach the Kings have had in quite some time.

Given the rising cost of coaching salaries around the NBA, Sacramento did well to secure Brown to a three-year deal with a base value of $8.5MM per year (it can be worth up to $10MM annually with incentives). If things go south in the next year or two, the Kings aren’t on the hook for Brown long-term, and if things go well, they can be more confident about offering him an eight-figure salary commensurate with what some of his more accomplished colleagues around the NBA have received in the last year or two.

With Brown locked up, the focus in the coming weeks will be on the roster, where the biggest question is what will happen with free agent wing Malik Monk. The Sixth Man of the Year runner-up in 2024, Monk has been one of the Kings’ most important rotation players in the past couple years, evolving into more than just a shooter. His 3.9 assists per game in 2022/23 were a career high, which he promptly eclipsed by bumping that number to 5.1 APG in ’23/24.

The challenge when it comes to re-signing Monk is twofold. For one, Sacramento only holds the 26-year-old’s Early Bird rights, which means the team can offer up to a 75% raise on his previous $9.95MM salary (with 8% annual raises in subsequent years). That works out to about $17.4MM in year one and just shy of $78MM in total over four years. That would be a strong offer, but it’s possible a team with cap room and a need for shooting (Detroit? Orlando?) would top it.

In comments to reporters after the season, Monk suggested he wouldn’t necessarily just accept the biggest offer he gets, but if another suitor gives him more money than the Kings can put on the table and offers him a starting role, it could be hard to turn it down.

Even if we assume the Kings are able to re-sign Monk with an Early Bird offer, giving him a sizable salary bump would put the club in danger of surpassing the luxury tax line. Taking into account Keon Ellis‘ non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 13 pick, Sacramento has about $155MM on the books for 12 players. Adding a $17.4MM salary for Monk would push that total above the projected luxury tax line ($171.3MM) with at least one more roster spot to be filled.

Letting the veteran shooting guard walk – or losing him to a higher bidder – would create enough breathing room below the tax line for Sacramento use its entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.9MM) on a replacement, but it would be unrealistic to expect the MLE to yield a player whose impact would match or exceed Monk’s. I expect the Kings to push to re-sign him and then address the tax issue later if necessary — it probably wouldn’t be too challenging to shed a contract or two to duck the tax if that’s what team ownership wants.

Of course, if Monk returns, the Kings’ roster in 2024/25 could look quite similar to the one we saw this past season. The team wouldn’t be able to do much in free agency after re-signing Monk and could end up just adding a new prospect with the No. 13 pick, salary-dumping a modest contract (maybe Sasha Vezenkov and his $6.66MM cap hit), and perhaps swapping out a couple back-of-the-roster minimum-salary players.

While that wouldn’t inspire a ton of excitement heading into the fall, it wouldn’t be a total disaster. Sacramento has high hopes for 2022’s No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray, a big 23-year-old wing who increased his scoring average to 15.2 PPG in 2023/24 and has made 38.4% of his three-pointers since entering the league two years ago. Murray made improvements on the defensive end in his sophomore season and is the sort of breakout candidate who could legitimately raise the Kings’ ceiling if he continues to develop into a two-way star.

Turning to the trade market would be another option for the Kings, who probably wouldn’t mind upgrading their other forward spot, currently manned primarily by Harrison Barnes and Trey Lyles. Sacramento was viewed as a possible Pascal Siakam suitor before he was traded to the Pacers, but putting together a package for that caliber of player without including Murray isn’t simple.

The Kings’ other recent lottery pick, Davion Mitchell (No. 9 in 2021), is a solid defender, but he fell below a two-way player (Ellis) on the backcourt depth chart at times and doesn’t have nearly the trade value that Murray would. A trade package built around Mitchell and either Barnes or Kevin Huerter and future first-round picks would have some appeal, but could probably be outbid by other would-be contenders seeking a star.

It’s also worth noting that, after finishing in the lottery this year, the Kings still owe a 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta, meaning the earliest first-rounder they can trade (outside of this year’s No. 13 pick) would be in 2027 — and it could be pushed back by a year if Sacramento’s 2025 first-round selection lands in the top 12 and is protected again.

Rather than taking a huge swing on the trade market, perhaps the Kings will gauge the value of a package headlined by Huerter and a future first-rounder (or this year’s No. 13). Huerter is a talented outside shooter, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and his limitations on defense prompted Brown to experiment with starting Chris Duarte in his place in January.

Barnes’ underrated two-way contributions have arguably been more meaningful than Huerter’s, so the veteran forward should only end up on the trade block if a clear upgrade at his position is available. Huerter looks to me like the more expendable salary-matching piece, especially since the Kings have a good deal of shooting elsewhere on the roster. Sacramento could also potentially add another outside threat with the No. 13 pick in the draft, though the club could go in any number of directions with that lottery selection and should probably just be targeting the best player available if the pick isn’t traded.

We’ve made it this far without mentioning the Kings’ two stars – Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox – but their contract situations are relatively stable and they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. That’s especially true of Sabonis, who signed a new deal last summer and will be under team control for four more seasons.

Fox has two years left on his current pact and will be extension-eligible this offseason. The star guard may want to see if he can gain super-max eligibility by making an All-NBA team next spring, lining himself up for a maximum salary worth up to 35% of the cap instead of 30%. So if he and the Kings pass on an extension this offseason, there will be no reason for concern — if they still can’t come to terms in 2025, that could spell trouble, but there’s no indication at this point that we’re headed down that path.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Domantas Sabonis ($40,500,000)
De’Aaron Fox ($34,848,340)
Harrison Barnes ($18,000,000)
Kevin Huerter ($16,830,357)
Keegan Murray ($8,809,560)
Trey Lyles ($8,000,000)
Sasha Vezenkov ($6,658,536)
Davion Mitchell ($6,451,077)
Chris Duarte ($5,893,768)
Colby Jones ($2,120,691)
Total: $148,112,329

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Keon Ellis ($2,120,693)
Mason Jones (two-way)
Total: $2,120,693

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

Kessler Edwards ($2,409,870 qualifying offer / $2,409,870 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $2,409,870

Two-Way Free Agents

Jordan Ford: Non-Bird rights
Jalen Slawson: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

No. 13 overall pick ($4,702,800 cap hold)
No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $4,702,800

Extension-Eligible Players

Chris Duarte (rookie scale)
De’Aaron Fox (veteran)
Kevin Huerter (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of October 1.
Davion Mitchell (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Malik Monk ($12,929,579 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Alex Len ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
JaVale McGee ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $17,116,853

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Kings project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

June 6th, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Luke Adams

No NBA team has spent more money during the past two seasons on player salaries and luxury tax payments than the Warriors. The return on those hundreds of millions of dollars committed by ownership? A 90-74 regular season record, a single playoff series win in 2023, and a one-and-done play-in appearance in 2024.

Of course, the Warriors still have many of the same pieces on the current roster that they did on the version that won a championship in 2022. But the club’s longtime core stars are all in their mid-30s and need more help from the supporting cast than they once did.

Following a disappointing finish to the 2023/24 season, Golden State ownership and management will need to make a crucial decision this summer.

Is it worth maximizing the years the Warriors have left with all-time great Stephen Curry by continuing to pour massive amounts of money into player payroll and remaining in championship-or-bust mode? Or is the time right to take a step back by shedding some salary, ducking below the tax aprons, and gaining access to more roster-building tools, even if it means sacrificing a couple assets and perhaps ending an important longtime relationship along the way?

Cutting costs doesn’t necessarily mean the Warriors can’t be a contender in 2024/25 and beyond, but one or two missteps in that process could put the team at risk of wasting Curry’s remaining high-level years. It will be a tricky tightrope to walk for general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr., who is in just his second year as Golden State’s head of basketball operations.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan

If money continues to be no object for the Warriors, re-signing veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, should be atop their to-do list. The two sides have expressed mutual interest in continuing their relationship, which began when Golden State drafted Thompson 11th overall back in 2011. But Thompson reportedly turned down a two-year, $48MM extension prior to the season and seems intent on testing the open market to get a sense of his options.

The Warriors are in a difficult spot with Thompson. He’s not the same player he was in his best years, as ACL and Achilles tears in 2019 and 2020 sapped him of some athleticism and slowed down his lateral movement on defense. But he’s still one of the NBA’s best shooters (38.7% on 9.0 attempts per game in 2023/24) and will likely draw significant interest from young teams with cap room that covet both his floor-spacing ability and his championship experience.

As Anthony Slater of The Athletic recently noted, clubs like the Thunder, Magic, and Sixers could make life difficult for Golden State by putting lucrative short-term offers on the table for the 34-year-old, forcing the Warriors to go a little higher than they’d be comfortable with in order to retain him.

Letting Thompson go would significantly reduce the payroll, but it wouldn’t allow the Warriors to sign an equivalent replacement (ie. a player making well above the mid-level exception), since they still wouldn’t be in position to open up cap room.

If the Dubs intend to take the aggressive, win-at-any-cost route, it could also mean using Chris Paul‘s $30MM expiring contract as a trade chip for an impact player who is more firmly in his prime. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement no longer allows an over-the-cap team to trade a $30MM non-guaranteed salary for a $30MM guaranteed salary, since only the guaranteed portion counts for matching purposes. But Golden State could be somewhat flexible on the trade market with Paul — for instance, if the team targets a player making $20MM, it could just guarantee $20MM of CP3’s salary rather than having to guarantee the full amount.

Paul won’t have much value on his own, so attaching draft assets and/or young prospects would be necessary to build an appealing package. The Warriors could theoretically offer up to three future first-round picks despite having sent their 2030 first-rounder to Washington last offseason — that pick includes top-20 protection, so Golden State could trade it a second time if its new trade partner is willing to accept 21-30 protection (that team, in other words, would acquire it if it lands in the 1-20 range).

In terms of prospects, Moses Moody may be the most expendable of Golden State’s young players, given that he’s entering his fourth season and has yet to establish himself as a consistent rotation piece. Trade partners would likely have more interest in Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, both of whom are under very affordable team control for three more seasons, and especially Jonathan Kuminga, who has the most star potential of the quartet.

I don’t love this high-spending, win-now path for the Warriors though, particularly since there’s no obvious star trade candidate who would turn the club into a title favorite. Going that route would almost certainly mean operating over the second tax apron, which would impose several severe roster-building limitations, including an inability to aggregate salaries in trades or to sign free agents to more than minimum-salary contracts. Co-owner Joe Lacob has talked about ideally wanting to avoid being in that territory going forward.

So let’s consider the alternative.

Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, and Jackson-Davis are owed a combined $125MM in guaranteed money. Adding Kevon Looney ($8MM) and Gary Payton II ($9.13MM) would bump that figure to $142MM+, but Looney’s salary is only guaranteed for $3MM, while Payton holds a player option.

Let’s say Looney, who played a pretty limited role last season, is waived and re-signs for the minimum. And let’s assume that Payton, who spoke in April about possibly “redoing” his contract, is willing to accept a pay cut in 2024/25 (to, say, $6MM) if he gets another guaranteed year or two tacked onto a new deal.

Now we’re at $136MM for nine players, with a projected luxury tax line around $171MM. With at least five more players needed to fill out the roster, that admittedly doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to get a new deal for Thompson under the tax threshold, unless he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly rate (perhaps at or below the team’s previous extension offer). But with the first apron projected for about $179MM, the Warriors could bring back Thompson, waive Paul rather than trying to trade him, and have the ability to comfortably fill their remaining roster spots without surpassing either apron.

Even with the repeater tax rate applied to them, the Warriors’ tax bill would be fairly modest if they’re just a few million dollars above the tax line. And by operating under the aprons, Golden State could use some of the mid-level exception to pursue a rotation player and would be able to explore the trade market (perhaps dangling Wiggins?) without having to worry about not being able to aggregate salaries or take back more salary than they’re sending out.

If Thompson walks, the Warriors could offer a more significant role to Moody and would have additional flexibility on the trade market with Paul’s expiring deal, which would be a stronger matching piece as long as the team’s salary remains below the aprons.

While apron teams can’t take back more than 100% of their outgoing guaranteed salary in a trade, the salary-matching rules for non-apron teams are far more lenient. To acquire that aforementioned hypothetical $20MM target, Golden State would only have to guarantee Paul’s salary for $13.5MM (instead of $20MM as an apron team), increasing his value to any trade partner that intends to simply waive him.

It’s hard to envision a scenario in which either Curry or Green isn’t a Warrior next season, but there are no other players on the roster whom I view as locks to still be in Golden State by opening night. There are simply too many permutations for how this offseason could play out, with Thompson’s free agency and the handling of Paul’s expiring contract acting as the fulcrums that will dictate how the rest of the summer goes.

If Kuminga remains with the club – and I think he should – figuring out whether or not to extend him this offseason will represent another major decision for Warriors management. The third-year forward broke out in a big way beginning in the middle of the 2023/24 season after he saw inconsistent minutes during his first two-plus years in the NBA. He’s not a maximum-salary player yet, but Kuminga has probably earned a $100MM+ payday. It remains to be seen whether that payday will come from Golden State and whether it will happen this year.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Stephen Curry ($55,761,216)
Andrew Wiggins ($26,276,786)
Draymond Green ($24,107,143)
Jonathan Kuminga ($7,636,307)
Moses Moody ($5,803,269)
Brandin Podziemski ($3,519,960)
Kevon Looney ($3,000,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Trayce Jackson-Davis ($1,891,857)
Total: $127,996,538

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Chris Paul ($30,000,000)
- Paul’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
Kevon Looney ($5,000,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Looney’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 24.
Gui Santos ($1,891,857)
Pat Spencer (two-way)
Total: $36,891,857

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

Gary Payton II ($9,130,000): Early Bird rights
Total: $9,130,000

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

Lester Quinones ($2,293,637 qualifying offer / $2,293,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $2,293,637

Two-Way Free Agents

Jerome Robinson: Non-Bird rights

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Robinson will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Stephen Curry (veteran)
Jonathan Kuminga (rookie scale)
Kevon Looney (veteran)
Moses Moody (rookie scale)
Chris Paul (veteran)
Gary Payton II (veteran)
- Player option must be exercised.
Klay Thompson (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Klay Thompson ($49,350,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Thompson’s cap hold will be his maximum salary (35% of the 2024/25 cap).
Usman Garuba ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Dario Saric ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $53,537,274

Other Cap Holds

Matt Barnes ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Nemanja Bjelica ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Andrew Bogut ($2,093,637 cap hold)
JaMychal Green ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Andre Iguodala ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Jonas Jerebko ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Anthony Lamb ($2,093,637 cap hold)
David West ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Nico Mannion ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $18,616,818

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Warriors project to operate over the cap. Their proximity to the tax aprons will be determined largely by their decisions with Thompson and Paul. If the Warriors operate above the first tax apron, they will lose access to all of the exceptions noted below and would instead be able to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they operate above both tax aprons, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions, including the taxpayer MLE.

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
Trade exception: $2,337,720
- Expires on July 8.
Trade exception: $2,019,706

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