Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

December 29th, 2022 at 9:01am CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.

Kyle Kuzma, F, Wizards

2022/23: $13,000,000
2023/24: $13,000,000 player option
Stock: Up

Kuzma has already said he plans to decline his player option and enter free agency, which makes a lot of sense from a financial perspective – he can only earn up to about $70MM over four years in an extension.

Through 35 games (35.4 minutes), the six-year veteran is averaging 21.6 points (a career high), 7.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists on .466/.341/.703 shooting (.560 true shooting percentage).

The 27-year-old’s TS% is actually below league average (.577, the highest in NBA history), but he offers three-level scoring and an interesting blend of versatility on both sides of the ball. He should see a significant raise on his $13MM deal starting next season.

Justin Holiday, G/F, Hawks

2022/23: $6,292,440
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

It’s a rare and impressive accomplishment for an undrafted player to last 10 NBA seasons, but the eldest of the three Holiday brothers has now joined that group, having found a nice niche as a 3-and-D wing from 2016-2021.

Holiday has earned between $4.3MM and $6.3MM each of the past six seasons, but his role and production have been limited in ‘22/23. He’s averaging just 15.4 minutes per contest and 4.7 points through 26 games, while recording his lowest 3PT% (.345) since ’15/16.

Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Holiday’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and he’ll be 34 in April, so there’s little reason to believe that will turn around. At this point, he’s looking like a one-year, veteran’s minimum type in free agency – assuming he finds a team.

Will Barton, G/F, Wizards

2022/23: $14,375,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Similar to Holiday, playing 11 seasons as a former second-round pick (40th in 2012) is certainly an impressive achievement for Barton. He entered the league as a raw prospect, but flourished when he was traded from Portland to Denver, averaging 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game on .438/.362/.789 shooting over seven-plus seasons.

Unfortunately, injuries have sapped Barton’s athleticism in recent years, and he was never a great defensive player. That – along with being traded to the Wizards in the offseason – has been detrimental to his career. He’s producing at his lowest level since his Trail Blazer days, averaging just 8.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.7 assists per game on .371/.370/.800 shooting (.486 TS%) through 31 contests (22.3 minutes).

Barton will have earned more than $80MM in his career once this season is over, but he’s clearly on the tail end of things, and is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum contract in the offseason.

Nick Richards, C, Hornets

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The 42nd pick of the 2020 draft, Richards rarely saw the court in his first two seasons, averaging just 6.3 minutes across 68 games. Suffice it to say, external expectations were not high for the 7’0” center entering ‘22/23.

The fact that he has been one of the most productive backup centers in the league this season – he’s averaging 9.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 33 games (18.8 minutes) – has been a pleasant surprise to say the least. The 9-26 Hornets currently hold the second-worst record in the league, but Richards has been a bright spot.

The 25-year-old will be a restricted free agent in the offseason and should garner a nice raise on his current minimum-salary deal.

(As an aside, I have no idea why Mason Plumlee continues to see the majority of minutes in the middle over Richards and first-rounder Mark Williams. Plumlee turns 33 in March, will be an unrestricted free agent, is a negative on defense, and Charlotte clearly isn’t going anywhere. Very odd situation for one of the league’s most perplexing teams.)

P.J. Washington, F/C, Hornets

2022/23: $5,808,435
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Down

Washington has several desirable traits – he can play both frontcourt positions (though he has played almost exclusively power forward this season), he’s a decent defender, he holds a career 3PT% of .368, he can leverage the threat of his outside shot to pump-and-drive, and he can post up smaller players, particularly favoring a mini-hook shot down low.

The former lottery pick will turn 25 in the offseason, so he’s theoretically still on the upside of his career, and he’s posting a career-best 14.8 points through 34 games in ‘22/23. So why is his stock down to this point?

Well, down is relative. I thought Washington could get a deal in the four-year, $60-70MM range on a rookie scale extension before the season started, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he still does, but it won’t be because he’s having a strong contract year. Despite playing a career-high 31.8 minutes per contest, he’s averaging a career-low 4.9 rebounds, his defense has regressed a little to my eyes, and his efficiency has plummeted. He has posted .416/.337/.798 shooting splits for a .519 TS%, after registering a career-high .588 TS% in ‘21/22.

Playing without the team’s best passers for much of the season hasn’t helped, and there’s plenty of time for Washington to turn things around with a strong second half. Still, his stock has definitely dipped since October.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: 10-Day Contracts

December 28th, 2022 at 12:01pm CST by Luke Adams

During the early part of an NBA season, a team that wants to sign a player to a short-term contract generally does so by agreeing to a non-guaranteed deal, giving the club the flexibility to waive him without paying his full-season salary. But non-guaranteed contracts are only an option until January 7 — any standard, rest-of-season deal signed after that date must be guaranteed for the season.

Around the same time the league-wide salary guarantee date arrives, the NBA gives teams the ability to sign players to 10-day contracts, which essentially replace non-guaranteed deals during the second half of the season.

Ten-day contracts can be signed each year beginning on January 5 and are exactly what they sound like — contracts that cover 10 days (including the day they’re signed). A player who signs a 10-day deal on January 5 would remain eligible to play for his team through January 14, but not on January 15, unless he signs a new contract.

A team can sign a player to as many as two 10-day contracts before committing to him for the rest of the season or, as in many cases, turning him away. A player can’t sign three 10-day standard contracts with the same team, but after signing two 10-day deals with one club, he’s allowed to sign another with a separate club.

The NBA has tweaked this rule in recent years to allow three or more 10-day contracts with the same team for players who are signed via the hardship provision. Last season, for instance, Drew Eubanks ended up signing five 10-day deals with the Trail Blazers. A team qualifies for a hardship exception when it meets certain criteria — those criteria have evolved in recent years to cover COVID-19 cases, but historically involved the club having at least four injured players.

While a team signing a player to a standard 10-day contract must have an open spot on its 15-man roster to accommodate the signing, a player signed via the hardship provision doesn’t count against that 15-man limit.

Even though they can technically be worth more, 10-day deals are almost always worth a prorated portion of the player’s minimum salary. A minimum-salary 10-day contract for a rookie this season will be worth $58,493, or 10/174ths of the full-season rookie minimum salary. A one-year veteran would earn $94,136. A minimum-salary 10-day deal for any veteran of two or more seasons would represent a cost of $105,522 to the team.

Veterans with more than two years of NBA experience would earn more than $105,522 on a 10-day contract, but the league would pay the extra freight. However, teams gain no financial advantage if they eschew 10-day contracts with more experienced players to sign rookies or one-year veterans to 10-day deals in an effort to reduce their tax penalty — those deals count the same as the ones for two-year veterans when the league calculates a team’s salary for tax purposes.

Teams would have to pay slightly more if they sign a player to a 10-day contract and they have fewer than three games on their schedule over that 10-day period. In those cases, the length of the 10-day contract is extended so that it covers three games for the team.

It’s rare that any team would have such a light schedule, since most play at least three games a week, but the rule generally comes into play for contracts signed just before the All-Star break. If the Knicks were to sign a player to a 10-day contract on February 13 this season, for instance, his contract would actually cover 12 days, since New York plays games on Feb. 13, Feb. 15, and then not again until Feb. 24.

Here are a few more rules related to 10-day contracts:

A team may terminate a 10-day contract before it runs to term if it wants to use the roster spot to accommodate a waiver claim, signing, or trade acquisition.
Players whose 10-day contracts are terminated early don’t go on waivers, so they become free agents immediately. Still, those players receive their full 10-day salaries — the contracts are fully guaranteed for the 10 days.
A team with a full 15-man roster is permitted to have up to three active players on 10-day contracts.
A 10-day deal must be a standard NBA contract. In other words, a team can’t sign a player to a two-way, 10-day contract.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

December 27th, 2022 at 10:33am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, including the top free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app, which is free, allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a story in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces.

For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james. Those player pages can be added to RSS readers too.

In addition to players, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts or by searching for them in the app.

For instance, you can keep tabs on our 2023 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. Stories related to international basketball are all here. And you can simply scan our top stories here.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Hield, Turner

December 26th, 2022 at 9:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Buddy Hield and Myles Turner are two of the bigger names churning through the rumor mill this season. The Pacers’ duo could potentially deliver some valuable assets in a trade, whether they’re packaged together or dealt separately.

The Pacers are at the .500 mark after losing on Monday and would qualify for the play-in tournament if the season ended today. They have two dynamic backcourt pieces in Tyrese Haliburton and Rookie of the Year candidate Bennedict Mathurin.

No one looks at Indiana as a serious contender for the Eastern Conference title. Dealing one or both of those veterans could move the Pacers closer to that eventual goal.

The longest-running rumor involving Hield and Turner is a possible trade for the Lakers’ Russell Westbrook and his expiring contract, along with Lakers’ draft picks. Turner’s name has been linked to a variety of other teams, including the Raptors, Clippers and Warriors.

The two Pacers could help a current contender in very different ways. Hield’s biggest selling point, of course, is his perimeter shooting. He’s currently second in the league in 3-pointers made, as well as percentage of points via the long ball.

Hield is signed for one more season, though his salary actually drops from approximately $21.2MM this year to $19.3MM in 2023/24.

Turner is arguably the league’s premier shot-blocker. He has led the NBA in that category twice and is currently ranked tied for third (2.1 per game). He’s also averaging career bests in points (16.2 PPG), rebounding (7.9 RPG) and 3-point shooting (41.3%).

Turner can be an unrestricted free agent after the season, though he and his reps have reportedly engaged in preliminary discussions with Indiana management regarding an extension.

That brings us to today’s question: Should the Pacers look to deal Hield and/or Turner and collect more future assets? Or should they should hold onto them, and even sign Turner to an extension?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Poll: Which Teams Will Be Trade Deadline Sellers?

December 25th, 2022 at 4:17pm CST by Rory Maher

In the Eastern Conference, only three games separate the No. 6 seed (the 18-16 Knicks) from the No. 11 seed (the 14-18 Bulls). Both the Magic and Wizards are just 13-21, yet they’re only two-and-a-half games back of the play-in tournament, with the Raptors (15-18) currently holding the No. 10 seed.

Out West, the Warriors have struggled to this point, currently holding a 15-18 record and the No. 11 seed, yet they’re only four games back of the Suns (19-14), the current No. 4 seed. The Lakers dropped to 13-20 on Sunday after giving up a league-high 51 points in the third quarter to Dallas (Twitter link via ESPN’s Tim MacMahon), yet they’re still only three games back of the final play-in spot (currently held by the 16-17 Timberwolves).

The bunched-together standings are a major reason why relatively few sellers have emerged on the trade market with the February 9 deadline just six weeks away. In the West, the Rockets and Spurs are obvious candidates to deal away veterans, while the Pistons, Magic and Hornets figure to make some of their veterans available in the East, though Charlotte hasn’t been mentioned in any real rumors yet.

A couple teams are in a sort of awkward middle ground. The Pacers (17-16, No. 8 in the East) and Jazz (19-16, No. 7 in the West) were viewed as sellers entering the fall and were not expected to have a record above .500 roughly 40% of the way through the regular season, and yet they’re right in the mix for a playoff spot.

Several teams with playoff ambitions have been inconsistent thus far: the Knicks, Hawks, Heat, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, Mavericks, Blazers, Timberwolves and Warriors (you could even throw in the Clippers and Kings). Out of that group, the Raptors, Bulls and Wizards are eyed by rival teams as possible sellers if they continue to have subpar results.

That leads us to our poll: Which teams will emerge as deadline sellers? Vote and then head to the comments and let us know what you think!

The wild thing is, it’s possible that any (or all) of the five teams listed in our poll could become buyers instead of sellers, and it could be an entirely different group that emerges as sellers in several weeks! That’s both exciting and confusing for trying to get a read on the market.

Community Shootaround: Christmas Day Games

December 25th, 2022 at 11:57am CST by Luke Adams

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate! December 25 is one of the marquee dates on the NBA’s calendar, with the league offering up the following five-game slate to audiences this year, in order of tip-off:

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

Given that the schedule is created months in advance, it’s a virtually impossible task for the NBA to pick the 10 best teams for its Christmas Day schedule. You could argue that’s not even the goal — after all, it’s probably safe to assume NBA executives didn’t expect the Knicks and Lakers to be top-10 teams this season. They were chosen to play on December 25 because of the size of their respective markets and fan bases.

Still, the NBA did reasonably well with this season’s schedule. The Sixers and Knicks have both surged in December and enter today’s game on hot streaks. The Bucks/Celtics matchup is a clash of the two clubs who have traded the East’s No. 1 seed back and forth for much of the season. And with Devin Booker back, the Suns and Nuggets (both top-four seeds in the West) will have all their stars available for the late game tonight.

Injuries to Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry take some of the luster off the Lakers’ and Warriors‘ games, and both clubs have struggled this season anyway. Still, the defending champions are assured of a spot on Christmas Day, and their opponent – the Grizzlies – is one of the league’s most exciting teams, so it’s hard to complain about that game. The Mavericks/Lakers contest is the worst of the bunch based on the two teams’ records, but it will still feature LeBron James vs. Luka Doncic.

Which teams not in action today deserved a Christmas Day showcase? In the East, you could make a case for the Cavaliers and the Nets, but Cleveland wasn’t expected to be quite this good this soon, and Brooklyn’s roster appeared to be very much in flux when the NBA was setting its schedule, as Kevin Durant wryly observed earlier this week (Twitter video link via Ian Begley of SNY.tv).

It would have been great to see a full-strength Pelicans squad playing on Christmas, but they weren’t considered a sure thing entering the season, and Zion Williamson‘s health is always a question mark — he has actually missed the last two games, while Brandon Ingram has been sidelined since November 25, so New Orleans likely wouldn’t have had its full arsenal available today.

The Clippers are another notable omission out West, and the NBA probably wouldn’t have minded finding room for them on the schedule with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George healthy and beginning to round into form.

We want to know what you think of this year’s December 25 schedule. Which of today’s games are you most excited about? Which ones do you think you might skip? Which teams are you disappointed not to see playing today?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Best Team In The East

December 24th, 2022 at 12:45pm CST by Luke Adams

When we took a closer look at the Western Conference earlier this week, we pointed out that the No. 1 seed had changed hands many times this season, with eight different teams holding it at some point and five of those clubs spending at least six days as the West’s top team.

That hasn’t been the case in the Eastern Conference, where the Celtics and Bucks have essentially shared the top seed all season. According to Basketball-Reference, Milwaukee held it from October 24 to November 13, Boston had it from November 14 to December 17, and the two teams have traded it back and forth during the past week.

Milwaukee and Boston have made a strong case to be considered the East’s most serious championship threats. The Celtics have been especially impressive, posting the NBA’s best offensive rating (116.6) and net rating (+6.0) while getting an MVP-caliber performance from Jayson Tatum. They’ve also spent most of the season playing without their best rim protector, Robert Williams, and could have an even higher ceiling now that he’s back.

The Bucks have stuck right there with them though, buoyed by the league’s third-best defense and an MVP candidate of their own in forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. Like Boston, Milwaukee has gotten off to a strong start despite playing shorthanded — All-Star forward Khris Middleton has been limited to seven games and has struggled mightily in those appearances, so the Bucks could presumably reach another gear if and when they’re fully healthy and firing on all cylinders.

Both the Celtics and Bucks have been up and down in recent weeks, however. Boston has lost five of seven games and actually has the NBA’s worst offensive rating (107.0) during the month of December. Milwaukee has lost four of its last seven.

As the East’s leaders have struggled, several other would-be contenders have closed the gap at the top of the standings, starting with the Cavaliers. The offseason addition of Donovan Mitchell has helped Cleveland take a step forward this season, while the frontcourt duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley has led the NBA’s best defense (107.2 rating).

Cleveland’s +6.0 net rating is tied with Boston for the league’s best mark. The Cavs also have a pair of victories over Boston under their belts already this season and beat Milwaukee on Wednesday, proving they can hang with the East’s top clubs.

Meanwhile, two teams expected to be title contenders before the season began have been on fire lately after getting off to sluggish starts — the Nets have won eight games in a row and 12 of their last 13, while the Sixers are riding their own seven-game winning streak. Brooklyn is now within two games of the East’s top seed, while Philadelphia is just three games out.

The Nets’ offense has looked in recent weeks like the well-oiled machine that we thought it could be, as they comfortably lead the NBA with a 120.4 offensive rating in December. Kevin Durant has played some of the best basketball of his career, Kyrie Irving is staying out of the news and playing great basketball following his return from an eight-game suspension, and Ben Simmons is looking a whole lot more comfortable on both ends of the court after a concerning start to the season.

Somewhat surprisingly, Philadelphia has been most effective on the defensive end of the ball, trailing only the Cavs with a 108.3 defensive rating, but James Harden and Joel Embiid have been clicking on offense lately too. In a win over the Clippers on Friday, Embiid racked up 44 points while Harden had 21 assists. The offense should take another step forward once Tyrese Maxey returns from a foot injury.

The East’s top five seeds look like the best bets to come out of the conference, but we should also mention the Knicks (18-15), who have the East’s best net rating (+10.2) in December, along with the Hawks (17-16), Pacers (17-16), Heat (16-17), and Raptors (15-18), who are lurking in play-in territory for now.

We want to know what you think. Which team do you expect to finish the regular season holding the East’s No. 1 seed? Will the same club represent the conference in the NBA Finals, or will another team make a deeper playoff run? Do you consider the East to be as wide open as the West, or are there fewer real title threats here beyond the top few seeds?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Poll: Should NBA Adopt Elam Ending For Overtime?

December 23rd, 2022 at 10:15am CST by Luke Adams

The G League revamped its overtime format this season, as we detailed earlier in the week, replacing a traditional two-minute overtime period with a seven-point target score. Instead of simply tacking on another two minutes to the clock, the G League turns the clock off entirely once overtime begins, with the first team to score seven points winning the game.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton (Insider link) suggested earlier this week that it’s a tweak we could eventually see make its way to the NBA, and John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote today about that possibility too. According to Hollinger, the rule change has received “generally positive” reviews and NBAGL staffers seem to love it.

The target score – also known as the “Elam Ending” in honor of creator Nick Elam – has been used in the fourth quarter of the NBA All-Star Game in recent years. However, as Pelton observes, it’s a better fit in overtime, since the two teams start the period tied — that simplifies the target score, since both clubs need to score the same amount of points, instead of one team needing, say, 40 points, while the other team needs 27.

Since the NBA’s overtime period runs for five minutes instead of just two minutes like in the G League, an overtime target score at the NBA level would likely have to be higher than seven points — Pelton believes that something around 11 might work.

There would be some drawbacks if the NBA instituted such a change. We’d lose the drama of double- or triple-overtime games, and there would be no possibility of a game ending on a buzzer beater.

However, coaches and front offices may welcome the elimination of those double- or triple-overtime contests, which can result in top players playing huge minutes. With teams more concerned than ever about managing players’ workloads, they could favor the relative certainty of the target-score ending.

As for the lost buzzer beaters, it’s worth noting that the Elam Ending requires every game to end on a made shot, so if the score stays tight throughout overtime, there should still be plenty of excitement in end-game scenarios.

There would likely still be plenty of anticlimactic endings, with games ending via a free throw or by one team pouring in 11 points before the other team has scored more than a basket or two. But that’s an issue with the current overtime format as well.

We want to know what you think. Our poll below simply asks whether or not the NBA should adopt the Elam Ending for overtime, but if you have suggestions for potential variations (perhaps a standard five-minute overtime period followed by a target score in double overtime?), we want to hear them.

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Best Team In The West

December 21st, 2022 at 1:51pm CST by Luke Adams

After defeating Memphis on Tuesday, the Nuggets are the Western Conference leaders, becoming the latest club to take its turn atop the West’s standings. The Nuggets, who also briefly held the No. 1 seed for a couple days in mid-November, are the fourth team to lead the West so far in December, as the conference’s would-be contenders play musical chairs with the top seeds.

Since the regular season began in October, eight different teams have held the No. 1 spot in the West, with five of those clubs spending at least six days atop the conference. Of those teams, only one has spent more than 10 days holding the top seed — the Suns have led the West for 23 days so far this season.

While the Suns look like a worthy contender to finish the season as the West’s best team, they’ve been in a tailspin in the last couple weeks, losing six of their last nine games. The absences of Cameron Johnson (due to injury) and Jae Crowder (away from the team) have hurt a club that has also dealt with injuries to starting guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker in recent weeks.

The Nuggets, the current West leader, have a strong starting group led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and own the conference’s second-best offense (behind Phoenix), but they still need to get more from their bench and improve their defense, which ranks 24th in the NBA.

The Trail Blazers have led the conference for 10 days so far this season, but have had some rough patches and currently hold the No. 7 seed, albeit just 2.5 games behind Denver. Like the Nuggets, they’ve had some defensive lapses and are focused on improving a unit that ranks 23rd in the league.

The Grizzlies and Jazz have each been atop the West for nine days, though they’ve appeared headed in opposite directions as of late. Even after losing their last two games, the Grizzlies have won nine of their last 12, while Utah has dropped 10 of 16 since opening the season with a 12-6 record. The Jazz have proven to be surprisingly resilient for a club viewed as a tanker entering the season, but it’s probably safe to assume the Grizzlies will be the better team the rest of the way.

The Pelicans held the West’s top seed for six days earlier this month and remain very much in the hunt for that spot, just one game behind the Nuggets. Former No. 1 pick Zion Williamson has been firing on all cylinders in the last few weeks and we still haven’t seen New Orleans at full strength — Brandon Ingram has been sidelined since November 25 and will add another dimension to the team’s offense once he’s ready to return from his toe injury.

The Warriors (three days) and Clippers (one day) technically held the No. 1 spot in the West briefly during the early part of the season and were considered two of the best bets to make the NBA Finals entering the fall. Injuries have disrupted their momentum so far, but as long as they secure playoff berths and get healthy by the spring, no one will want to face them in the postseason.

Of the remaining seven Western teams who haven’t led the conference at all this season, the Kings (16-13), Timberwolves (16-15), Mavericks (15-16), and Lakers (13-17) are probably the only legitimate threats to make the postseason. It may be be a long shot for a Sacramento squad lacking in playoff experience or a Lakers club lacking in depth to make much noise this season, but Minnesota and Dallas have the star power necessary to make a second-half push.

We want to know what you think. In what appears to be a wide open Western Conference field, which team do you think will finish the regular season as the No. 1 seed? Do you expect the same team to represent the conference in the NBA Finals, or do you like another club to win the West in the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your two cents!

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

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