Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

Community Shootaround: Los Angeles Lakers

December 19th, 2022 at 10:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Lakers reached the 30-game mark on Monday, as their depleted group got blown out by the Suns. LeBron James and Russell Westbrook missed the game with minor ailments but of course the bigger issue is Anthony Davis‘ foot injury.

Los Angeles dropped to a 13-17 record, 12th-best in the Western Conference, and it’s going to be difficult to hang around in the postseason chase with Davis sidelined for multiple weeks. It’s uncertain just how long Davis will be out, but naturally the Lakers will exercise plenty of caution for a superstar with a long history of injuries.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Lakers’ prospects were a lot rosier. Davis was on a tear, scoring 99 points in a two-game span at one point, as the Lakers came within two games of .500 after a 2-10 start.

They pulled out a narrow victory over the slumping Wizards without Davis on Saturday, but continuing to win games without him won’t be easy. Sunday’s contest against the Suns began a stretch in which they’ll play seven of eight games on the road.

There have been all kinds of trade rumors surrounding the Lakers since the summer. Westbrook and his $47MM expiring contract have, of course, has been at the forefront of that trade buzz. There have been all kinds of names bandied about as possible trade targets, including Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish and Evan Fournier, just to name a few.

Their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks, however valuable they may be, have also been a hot topic of discussions.

Now, it’s fair to wonder what approach the Lakers should take. During the uptick, it seemed like a good idea to get immediate help.

Now, it might be prudent to bite the bullet and use the cap room they’ll gain from Westbrook’s expiring contract, among others, to retool next summer. The only big salary commitments they have beyond this season are the contracts of Davis and James. That cap space would give them much more elbow room than they had this past offseason to make deals and free agent signings.

That brings us to our question of the day: In light of Davis’ latest injury, should the Lakers make moves now to improve their chances of staying in the playoff chase? Or should they stand pat and use the cap space they’ll gain from expiring contracts to revamp the roster next offseason?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Memphis Grizzlies

December 16th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies won 56 games last season, the second-highest total in the NBA, but were still viewed as something of an underdog entering the postseason. Their limited track record as a contender and their overall lack of playoff experience meant that most league observers considered them a long shot to make a run to the NBA Finals.

Memphis did win one playoff series, a six-game battle with the Timberwolves, then fell in the second round to the eventual champions, losing to Golden State in six games.

Rather than aggressively scouring free agency or the trade market for a potential missing piece in the offseason, the Grizzlies had a pretty quiet summer. In fact, they parted ways with two reliable rotation players, trading De’Anthony Melton to Philadelphia and letting Kyle Anderson walk in free agency, replacing them with a pair of first-round rookies, Jake LaRavia and David Roddy.

Given the Grizzlies’ lack of offseason upgrades – along with an expectation that they might be impacted by regression – enthusiasm for the team was somewhat muted entering the season. The Grizzlies were still expected to be a good team, but their preseason over/under projection of 49.5 wins only put them in a tie for fifth among Western Conference clubs.

Despite having dealt with injuries to multiple top players during the first third of the season, the Grizzlies have outperformed those preseason expectations so far, posting a 19-9 record that has them sitting atop the West, one game up on the 18-10 Pelicans.

Their beatdown of Milwaukee on Thursday was the Grizzlies’ most impressive victory yet, as Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal writes. Memphis built an eye-popping 50-point lead at one point against a Bucks team with championship aspirations, ultimately winning by 41 points.

The Grizzlies have played as well as they have even though Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. have only been available for 12 games apiece (none of which overlapped). Ja Morant, who has missed five games himself, has led the charge with another All-NBA caliber season, but he’s getting help from all over the roster.

Dillon Brooks is averaging nearly 18 points per game while handling the toughest perimeter defensive assignments; Steven Adams is dominating the offensive boards and defending opposing bigs; Tyus Jones has been his usual reliable self backing up Morant and occasionally stepping into the starting lineup to replace him; Santi Aldama and John Konchar are enjoying the best years of their respective careers, emerging as reliable role players; Roddy and Brandon Clarke have also played rotation roles, and the team has recently been reincorporating Ziaire Williams following an injury absence; finally, they still have Danny Green recovering from an ACL tear and hoping to contribute by the spring.

Now the question is whether there’s enough talent and experience on the roster to make Memphis a legitimate title contender in 2023.

ESPN’s Zach Lowe explored this question today in an Insider-only story, arguing that the emergence of Jackson as dominant two-way force gives the Grizzlies a real chance to come out of the West. The big man, whom Lowe describes as Memphis’ “wild card,” is averaging 3.3 blocks per game and can switch across all five positions on defense. He has also significantly improved his shooting percentages on offense and has posted a team-best +14.9 net rating.

Bane, meanwhile, was off to a scorching start to the season before injuring his toe, averaging career highs with 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. If the Grizzlies eventually get him healthy while keeping Morant, Jackson, and Brooks on the floor, their upside is scary.

Memphis has the ability to fortify its roster with a trade deadline move — the team has some extra draft assets, including Golden State’s lightly protected 2024 first-rounder. Lowe believes the Grizzlies should at least consider a “minor” deal to improve the back of their rotation, but we want to know what you think.

Do you view the Grizzlies as a serious contender to win the West, as currently constructed? Do you think they’re still another trade – or another year – away from making a deep playoff run? If you feel like they need to make a deal, what sort of piece should they be looking to add?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

74 NBA Players Newly Eligible To Be Traded

December 15th, 2022 at 7:18am CST by Luke Adams

Today is December 15, which means that – by our count – 74 NBA players who signed as free agents this offseason have officially become eligible to be traded. Approximately 88% of the players currently on NBA rosters are now trade-eligible, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks.

The list of newly trade-eligible players, which can be found right here, features many who almost certainly aren’t going anywhere this season, including Sixers guard James Harden and Knicks guard Jalen Brunson.

However, it also includes some players whose names have already popped up in trade speculation in the months since they were signed, such as Mavericks center JaVale McGee and injured Celtics forward Danilo Gallinari.

Twelve of the players on the list can’t be traded without their consent, since they have the ability to veto trades this season. Milwaukee is the only team carrying multiple players who fit that bill — three of the 12 players in that group are members of the Bucks.

Thirteen more newly trade-eligible players are still on non-guaranteed contracts, including multiple members of the Celtics, Nets, Timberwolves, and Kings.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there are still many recently-signed players around the NBA who remain ineligible to be dealt. Some will become trade-eligible on January 15, while others have specific dates to watch.

Of course, while December 15 is considered the unofficial start of the NBA’s trade season, we shouldn’t expect a flurry of deals in the coming days. Typically, teams wait until closer to the trade deadline (February 9) to make their moves, as we discussed over the weekend. The most recent trade to be completed on December 15 occurred in 2010, and there generally aren’t more than one or two deals made between now and the new year.

The league’s recent trade history doesn’t mean we won’t see any trades this month, but if there are more than a couple, it would be an exception to the rule. We should expect more activity in January and February, even as talks start to heat up in December.

Early Check-In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

December 14th, 2022 at 3:57pm CST by Luke Adams

As our list of traded 2023 first-round picks shows, a dozen teams have dealt their first-rounders in next year’s draft (either with protections or without) and another three clubs have surrendered swap rights to their picks. That means more than half of 2023’s first-rounders could theoretically be changing hands, with more potentially on the move as a result of in-season trades.

In actuality, due to protections on several of those traded picks or the fact that certain swap rights won’t be exercised, several of the first-rounders that could change hands won’t do so. It’s still too early to say with certainty which picks will be on the move and which will stay put, but with the NBA season at approximately the one-third mark, we’re starting to get a clearer picture.

Here’s an early look at the traded 2023 first-round picks:

Picks likely to be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks

The Pistons and Hornets currently have the NBA’s two worst records and their picks have the heaviest protections of any traded 2023 first-rounders. In other words, it’s a pretty safe bet neither will go anywhere.

Assuming those picks fall in their protected range as expected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

The Wizards‘ recent losing streak, meanwhile, has dropped them down to the NBA’s sixth-worst record. They’ll keep their first-rounder if they don’t make the playoffs, and it looks like earning a postseason berth will be an uphill battle at this point. If they keep their 2023 first-round pick, the Wizards will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-12 protection.

It’s also worth mentioning in this section that the Rockets have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Nets, while the Thunder have the right to swap first-round picks with the Clippers. However, neither of those swap rights appears likely to be exercised based on how those four teams have performed this season.

The most intriguing picks that could change hands

Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights
Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks

The Pelicans‘ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers doesn’t look quite as valuable today as it did at the start of the season when L.A. was off to a 2-10 start and at the bottom of the NBA’s standings, but there’s still a very real chance that pick will be in the lottery.

If the season ended today, the Lakers would be tied for seventh in the lottery standings, while the Pelicans would have either the No. 27 or No. 28 overall pick, resulting in a tantalizing swap for New Orleans. For what it’s worth, the Pelicans had the seventh-best lottery odds in 2019 when they won the No. 1 overall pick that was eventually used on Zion Williamson.

The Bulls, meanwhile, currently have the NBA’s ninth-worst record and could end up sending a second lottery pick to the Magic as a result of the Nikola Vucevic trade from two seasons ago. The first lottery pick Orlando received as part of that deal became Franz Wagner in 2021.

It seems safe to assume that the Timberwolves and Mavericks are better than they’ve played so far, but if the season ended today, Minnesota would be on the outside of the play-in picture in the West, while Dallas would have to win two play-in games to even make the postseason. It’s not inconceivable that one or both of those traded first-rounders could end up in the lottery if the second half doesn’t go well for the Wolves and Mavs. That would be good news for the Jazz and Knicks.

Later first-round picks likely to change hands

Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls.
Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.
Bucks‘ pick (unprotected) to Rockets.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.

If the season ended today, none of these picks would land in the top 20, with the Trail Blazers‘ and Sixers‘ first-rounders tied for No. 21 and No. 22. The Nets‘, Cavaliers‘, and Nuggets‘ picks would be 24th through 26th, respectively, while the Bucks‘ and Celtics‘ selections would be the last two in the first round.

That outlook could change, of course. Portland, for instance, is hardly considered a juggernaut and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Blazers ultimately had to go through the play-in tournament to even earn a playoff spot. But with fairly heavy protections on their traded first-rounder, there’s no chance they’ll surrender a lottery pick to the Bulls in 2023.

One point of clarification here is that the Nets will have their choice of swapping their own pick for the Sixers’ selection, with the Jazz receiving the less valuable of the two first-rounders. If the season ended today, that means Brooklyn would move up to Philadelphia’s spot in the draft (No. 21 or 22), with Utah getting the Nets’ pick at No. 24.

Community Shootaround: Phoenix Suns

December 13th, 2022 at 7:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Phoenix Suns appear to be in a tricky spot two months into the season.

On the surface, the Suns still rank as one of the league’s top teams. They were two victories from capturing the NBA championship two seasons ago. They proved that was no fluke last season by piling up 64 regular-season victories and entering the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed.

They couldn’t sustain that dominance in the playoffs, as they required six games to knock out the upstart Pelicans, then saw their season end unceremoniously with a Game 7 collapse against the Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals.

Despite the distraction of owner Robert Sarver’s suspension and injuries to starters Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson, the Suns got off to a strong start this season. They were 16-7 but have since lost four straight.

They were blown out by the Mavs and Celtics before back-to-back losses to New Orleans, which has the look of a serious contender with the return of Zion Williamson.

The Suns should still finish in the top six in the Western Conference. They have one of the league’s premier players in Devin Booker, who is averaging a career-best 27.4 points per game.

After allowing Deandre Ayton to enter restricted free agency over the summer, the Suns chose to match the Pacers’ giant offer sheet. Ayton has remained productive, posting numbers in line with his previous seasons.

Paul has finally returned from his nagging heel ailment. Johnson should return sometime next month from his knee injury.

The Jae Crowder situation still looms over the front office. It’s not a question of if, but rather when, Crowder will be dealt. GM James Jones has patiently waited for an offer that will presumably include a rotation player to help the team this season.

Will that be enough for the Suns to make a deep playoff run? Gerald Bourguet of GoPhnx.com doesn’t think so. He points out the team doesn’t get to the free throw line often enough and lacks the mental toughness of past teams.

Moreover, he sees the roster as being fundamentally flawed, lacking in ball-handling, offensive creation, playmaking and size at power forward.

The Suns have other assets besides Crowder to deal, most notably the expiring contracts of Dario Saric and Torrey Craig. They also own all of their future draft picks.

That brings us to today’s question: What should the Suns do to maintain their status as one of the Western Conference’s top teams? Will roster tweaks be enough or do they have to do something drastic to keep up with the other contenders?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Dallas Mavericks’ Future

December 10th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After throwing in the towel on the Kristaps Porzingis experiment at last season’s trade deadline and then watching Jalen Brunson leave for New York as a free agent during the offseason, the Mavericks don’t have a great candidate on their roster to emerge as a second star alongside Luka Doncic.

Christian Wood is a gifted scorer and rebounder, but his defensive shortcomings limit his two-way impact — Dallas hasn’t even been comfortable inserting him into the starting lineup for that reason. Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Maxi Kleber are among the Mavericks’ other top rotation players who are solid in their roles, but not won’t be making any All-Star teams.

As great as Doncic is, the Mavs probably need to add at least one more impact player to be a legitimate title contender, but they’re not in a great position to make that sort of trade this season. They owe their 2023 first-round pick to New York as a result of the original Porzingis trade and have traded away four future second-rounders. Their roster also lacks a top young prospect who could be the centerpiece of a trade for a star.

Dallas’ future outlook was the primary topic of discussion on the most recent episode of Brian Windhorst’s Hoop Collective podcast. As Windhorst and ESPN colleagues Tim MacMahon and Tim Bontemps observed, the Mavs will be facing increased pressure to connect on their next big roster move, given that Doncic is now on his second contract.

While it wasn’t an ideal outcome, the Mavs could afford to swing and miss on Porzingis because they made that move while Doncic was still on his rookie scale contract and they knew they’d be able to extend him beyond that. Now that his rookie scale extension – which has an opt-out after year four – has begun, the clock is ticking for the franchise to prove to the All-NBA guard that he should want a long-term future in Dallas.

“I think they have a two-year window here,” MacMahon said (hat tip to RealGM). “This season and next season going into that summer (of 2024). I think they’ve got a two-year window where, you know, like Milwaukee did with Giannis (Antetokounmpo), I think in that window they really need to convince Luka that he has a chance to contend year in and year out right here in Dallas.

“If they can’t get it done in that two-year window, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that he’s going to force a trade or ask for a trade. I’m just saying at that point if he’s not happy, he has all the leverage in the world if he would be looking to leave.

“I’m also not going to pretend like I know his innermost thoughts, but obviously I’m around this team on a regular basis. I know people who do know Luka well. I don’t think Luka will look for reasons to leave. I think he’d be perfectly happy spending his entire career in Dallas. But if he doesn’t have to look for reasons and they’re slamming him in the face, that’s a problem.

“He’s also a guy who is a ruthless competitor, which means he loves winning. He’s used to winning. He won championships with Real Madrid. He’s won a EuroBasket championship with the Slovenian national team. He also detests losing. Like, can’t handle it. Whether it’s cards, ping pong, but especially NBA games.”

MacMahon went on to say that he thinks it will be “awfully hard” for the Mavs to acquire a second star as long as they still owe the Knicks a first-round pick. That means Dallas could end up waiting until the 2023 offseason or the 2024 deadline to make its next big move, especially since more stars could land on the trade block by that time.

We want to know what you think. Is there a path for the Mavs to contend for a title by simply tweaking their roster and making smaller moves, or do they need to find a way to acquire another impact player? Should they be worried at all about Doncic’s eventual flight risk at this point, or are they in a strong position to prove to him that they can be a perennial contender?

Head to the comment section below to let us know your thoughts!

NBA Trade Floodgates Often Slow To Open After December 15

December 10th, 2022 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

A total of 74 NBA players who signed new contracts this past offseason will become trade-eligible next Thursday, on December 15.

A handful of players will remain ineligible to be traded until January 15 or other specific dates, but December 15 is considered the unofficial start of NBA trade season, with all but a handful of players free to be included in deals.

While it’s true that teams may start to get more serious about making trades after December 15, the notion that the floodgates will immediately open on the trade market is misguided. Generally speaking, the market is slower to develop, with most deals not being completed until much closer to the February trade deadline — or at least until after the holidays.

Here’s a look back at how the trade market has developed in recent seasons, as we look to get a sense of what to expect in the coming weeks and months:

2021/22

With the NBA back to its normal schedule following a pair of seasons affected by COVID-19, dozens of players became trade-eligible on December 15, but no in-season deals were completed until January 3.

On January 3, nearly three weeks after he became trade-eligible, Rajon Rondo was sent from the Lakers to the Cavaliers in a three-team deal that also involved the Knicks.

2020/21

In an abridged NBA season, the trade eligibility date for most offseason signees was February 6 rather than December 15. A pair of trades were completed before February 6, though both of those deals involved unusual circumstances — the Rockets granted James Harden‘s long-standing trade request by sending him to Brooklyn and the Cavaliers sent Kevin Porter Jr. to Houston following a locker-room incident.

On February 8, the Pistons and Knicks agreed on a trade that sent Derrick Rose to New York, but no one involved in that trade was newly trade-eligible, so the timing looks like a coincidence. After that deal, no trades were finalized until March 13, more than a month later.

2019/20

The first in-season trade completed in 2019/20 occurred on December 23, eight days after the December 15 trade eligibility date. However, neither player involved in that swap – Jordan Clarkson heading to Utah and Dante Exum going to Cleveland – was among the players who became trade-eligible on the 15th.

Following that Clarkson/Exum deal, the next trade wasn’t made until January 16.

2018/19

In an unusually eventful fall, three trades were made prior to December 15 in 2018/19, including the blockbuster that sent Jimmy Butler from Minnesota to Philadelphia.

The ’18/19 season also featured a rare December 17 trade, involving a player who was newly eligible to be dealt: Trevor Ariza. However, it’s worth noting that the agreement sending Ariza from Phoenix to Washington was preceded by an aborted three-team deal that would have involved the Grizzlies along with the Suns and Wizards. Those trade talks, which were first reported on December 14, fell apart due to confusion over whether the Grizzlies were including MarShon Brooks or Dillon Brooks.

While we may never see that mistake repeated by another NBA team, it’s possible that the embarrassment of that situation has since served as a cautionary tale for teams eager to make trades right away on December 15.

2017/18

Two trades were made before December 15 during the 2017/18 season, but all was quiet on the trade market for several weeks after Dec. 15 came and went.

The season’s third deal wasn’t finalized until January 29, when the Pistons acquired Blake Griffin from the Clippers. Griffin had become trade-eligible on January 15.

2016/17

Outside of an early November trade that sent Jerami Grant from Philadelphia to Oklahoma City, the 2016/17 in-season trade market was quiet until the new year. The second trade of the season was made on January 6, and didn’t involve any players who became trade-eligible on December 15.

Previous years

If we were to keep going further back, we’d find that the pattern is typically similar, with little action occurring immediately after offseason signees become trade-eligible on December 15.

We have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time a trade was made on December 15. That three-team deal involving the Rockets, Nets, and Lakers included Joe Smith, who had become trade-eligible that day.

It’s possible that next Thursday will bring our first December 15 trade in 12 years, but recent NBA history suggests the odds are against it — we’ll likely have to wait a little longer for the trade market to really heat up.

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Community Shootaround: Atlanta Hawks

December 9th, 2022 at 9:03pm CST by Rory Maher

The Hawks made a major trade in the offseason, dealing away unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027, a first-round pick swap in 2026, and Charlotte’s 2023 protected first-rounder to acquire All-Star point guard Dejounte Murray from the Spurs. Atlanta started the season strong, winning seven of 10 games, but has gone just 6-10 since and now sits at .500 (13-13).

A second trade received fewer headlines, but it was still significant, because they moved off Kevin Huerter‘s contract in order to dip under the luxury tax, and he was an important floor-spacer and ball-mover for Atlanta. The main player they received in return, Justin Holiday, has not been very effective, while Huerter is having a career year for the Kings.

As ESPN’s Zach Lowe noted in his “10 Things” column today (Insider link), the fit between Murray and star point guard Trae Young has been a little shaky thus far. Young opened the season actively moving without the ball, which is key with two ball-dominant players sharing the floor, but has basically abandoned it since. Lowe believes “something is off with the Hawks,” and there’s a chance that their season “could teeter into instability.”

As John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, the Hawks’ record doesn’t look too far off external expectations, but he also thinks “there is an impending sense that not all is well.” He lists several reasons for that, including Young’s reported tiff with head coach Nate McMillan last week and a worrisome shot profile (29th in 3PTA and 29th in 3PT%), among others.

According to Hollinger, perhaps the biggest factor in that “sense” has been Young’s poor start to the 2022/23 season. His counting stats look great — he’s averaging 27.5 points and 9.5 assists through 23 games. However, he’s shooting career lows of 47.0% on twos and 28.9% on threes, and until that changes, league observers will be keeping a close eye on the Hawks and what they might do at the trade deadline.

Entering Friday’s back-and-forth loss at Brooklyn, the Hawks ranked 21st in the league in offense, which a major drop-off — they were second last season. The defense has improved substantially, going from 26th up to 12th, but they still have a negative net rating (-1.0) despite being a .500 team.

With Murray expected to be sidelined for the next two weeks with a sprained ankle, and starting forwards De’Andre Hunter (hip) and John Collins (ankle) still sidelined, the spotlight will be on McMillan and Young to keep the Hawks afloat, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic.

Amick notes that Murray did his part last week when Young and the two forwards were out against Denver, leading the team to a surprising victory with 34 points and eight assists. Amick makes the case that Murray has been more important to Atlanta’s success this season than Young, recording a +6.5 net rating versus Young’s +1.5.

Bogdan Bogdanovic‘s return to the lineup should help the shooting numbers stabilize and take some pressure off Young — he’s a career 38.2% marksman from deep on high volume, and has only played four games after offseason knee surgery. But there are still major depth question marks aside from the fit concerns, particularly at guard and forward.

This year’s first-round pick, wing AJ Griffin, has played well overall, but he’s only 19 years old and having a rookie as a key rotation piece is a little worrisome for a team hoping to contend. Last year’s first-rounder, forward Jalen Johnson, has looked pretty rough around the edges in his first real chances at extended playing time.

We want to know what you think. Are you concerned about the Hawks? Do you get the feeling that “something is off,” like Lowe and Hollinger? Or do you think they just need to get healthy and have more time to adjust? Is the roster good enough to contend as constructed? If changes are needed, what do you think they should do?

Head to the comments section and let us know what you think of the Hawks and their chances for the rest of the season.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Salary Aggregation

December 9th, 2022 at 2:30pm CST by Luke Adams

When an NBA team is over the salary cap and wants to make a trade, certain rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement dictate how much salary the team is permitted to take back. We’ve outlined these rules in detail in our glossary entry on the traded player exception. Essentially, in most cases, an over-the-cap team must send out nearly as much salary as it acquires for the trade to be legal.

In some scenarios, salary aggregation is required in order to legally match the incoming player’s cap hit. Aggregation is the act of combining multiple players’ salaries in order to reach that legal outgoing limit.

For example, if Team A wants to acquire a player earning $30MM from Team B, sending out a player earning $20MM would fall short of the minimum requirement, since Team A can only bring back up to 125% of the outgoing amount (plus $100K). Trading a $20MM player would allow the team to acquire up to $25.1MM in salary.

However, by adding a second player earning $4MM to its package, Team A would reach the minimum outgoing threshold by “aggregating” its two traded players, resulting in a total of $24MM in outgoing salary — that’s just barely enough to bring back a $30MM player.

Only player salaries can be aggregated. Trade exceptions cannot be aggregated with one another or with players. That means a team with a $10MM trade exception can’t aggregate that exception with a $20MM player (or a $20MM trade exception) to acquire a $30MM player.

Crucially, sending out two players together in a trade doesn’t necessarily mean they have to be aggregated.

For instance, if Team A sends out one player earning $25MM and another earning $5MM in exchange for its incoming $30MM player, there’s no need to aggregate the two outgoing salaries. Since $25MM is an amount sufficient to take back $30MM, the $5MM player can essentially be traded for “nothing,” creating a $5MM trade exception that could be used at a later date.

Because trade exceptions can only be created in “non-simultaneous” trades and salary aggregation can only be completed in a “simultaneous” trade, trade exceptions can’t be generated in scenarios in which salaries are aggregated. In the hypothetical trade above, swapping the $25MM player for the $30MM player represents a simultaneous trade, while sending out the $5MM player represents a non-simultaneous trade, resulting in the trade exception.

Here’s another example to illustrate that point, using the same $30MM incoming player: If Team A decides to salary-match by sending out one player earning $20MM and a second earning $15MM, that team can’t generate a trade exception worth the excess amount ($5MM), because the two outgoing salaries must be aggregated, resulting in a simultaneous trade.

One good recent example of salary aggregation came when the Celtics acquired Malcolm Brogdon from Indiana over the summer. In order to take on Brogdon’s $22.6MM salary, Boston needed to send out $18MM, but the team didn’t have one player earning that amount it wanted to trade to make the deal legal.

In order to get to $18MM, the Celtics began by building a package around Daniel Theis ($8,694,369) and Aaron Nesmith ($3,804,360). Still $5,501,271 short of the required minimum, Boston also gave partial guarantees to Nik Stauskas ($2,106,932), Juwan Morgan ($1,728,689), and Malik Fitts ($1,665,650), aggregating all five players’ salaries to match Brogdon’s figure.

The NBA’s trade rules state that when a team acquires a player using salary-matching or a trade exception (rather than cap room), it cannot aggregate that player’s salary in a second trade for two months. That makes December 9 an important date on this season’s trade calendar, since February 9 is the 2023 trade deadline. Any player acquired after today won’t be eligible to have his trade aggregated prior to the deadline.

As outlined above, that doesn’t mean that a player acquired after today can’t be traded again before the deadline along with other players — it simply means his salary can’t be aggregated as part of the deal.

For instance, when the Thunder acquired Maurice Harkless from Atlanta on September 27 using a trade exception, he became ineligible to be aggregated in a second deal until November 27. However, Oklahoma City traded him to Houston along with three other players on September 30.

That move was possible because Harkless’ salary didn’t need to be aggregated with Derrick Favors‘, Ty Jerome‘s, and/or Theo Maledon‘s in order to make that second trade legal for Oklahoma City. From the Thunder’s perspective, the eight-player trade broke down into multiple smaller parts, with Harkless essentially being traded “by himself” despite being part of a package.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

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