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Community Shootaround: Early Impressions Of 2022 Rookie Class

November 13th, 2022 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Up until about 24 hours before the 2022 NBA draft, it was widely believed that Paolo Banchero would be the third player off the board, with Jabari Smith considered likely to be the Magic‘s pick at No. 1 and Chet Holmgren the favorite to follow him at No. 2. Banchero was expected to be selected third overall by the Rockets.

Instead, it was Banchero who was the first player drafted, while Holmgren still went to the Thunder and Smith headed to Houston rather than Orlando.

Through the first month of the 2022/23 regular season, it’s looking like the Magic made the right call.

Banchero has been one of the NBA’s most productive rookies in years in the early going, averaging an impressive 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in 34.7 minutes per game. Smith, meanwhile, has struggled mightily, making just 31.3% of his shots from the field en route to modest averages of 10.3 PPG and 6.8 RPG in 29.7 MPG. And while it may be unfair to dock Holmgren for having suffered a season-ending foot injury before training camps begin, his slight frame was considered a possible red flag for teams picking at the top of the draft.

Banchero is the odds-on favorite for the Rookie of the Year award at this point, but it looks like he’ll face some stiff competition from a couple players selected just outside of the top three.

Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin has arguably been just as impressive as Banchero in his first 12 NBA games, averaging 19.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 2.3 APG with a sparkling .456/.453/.831 shooting line in just 28.1 MPG. If Indiana continues to bring him off the bench and he keeps playing at his current level, he could be a legitimate threat to win two end-of-season awards — Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year.

Pistons guard Jaden Ivey, meanwhile, hasn’t been scoring at quite the same rate as Banchero or Mathurin, but he ranks third among rookies in points per game (15.8 PPG), fourth in rebounding (5.1 RPG), and first in assists (3.8 APG). It’s not just a case of him benefiting from a high usage rate either, as his shooting percentages (.446/.352/.727) are very solid for a 20-year-old adjusting to the NBA.

No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray is off to a slightly slower start after returning from a bout with COVID-19, but the Kings forward has averaged 11.9 PPG on .446/.361/.778 shooting and could continue to boost those numbers as the season progresses.

It’s still very early in the season, and as we saw a year ago with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, it sometimes takes highly touted rookies a little time to adjust to the NBA and begin scoring efficiently, so we could see youngsters like Smith and Murray come on strong in the second half.

For now though, we want to know your initial thoughts on this year’s rookie class.

Did you expect Banchero and Mathurin to be this good this fast, or have they surprised you? Do you think they’ll come back to earth while other rookies get hot, or will the Rookie of the Year race ultimately come down to the Magic forward and the Pacers guard? Are you worried about Smith, or do you expect him to be fine after he endures some growing pains? Are there other rookies in this class – including perhaps Shaedon Sharpe, Jeremy Sochan, or Tari Eason – who have impressed you so far?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Largest Trade Exceptions Available This Season

November 13th, 2022 at 9:04am CST by Luke Adams

As the NBA’s 2022/23 trade deadline approaches, it’s worth keeping in mind which teams hold traded player exceptions that could come in handy to grease the wheels on an in-season deal.

As we explain in our glossary, a traded player exception allows a team to take on salary in a trade without sending out any salary in return. The amount of the exception plus $100K is the amount of salary the team is permitted to take back without salary-matching – either in a single deal or in multiple trades – for one year.

For instance, a team with a $10MM trade exception could acquire a player earning $4MM and a player earning $6.1MM without having to worry about sending out any outgoing salary.

In recent years, sizable traded player exceptions have been major wild cards that helped accommodate both pre-deadline and offseason deals. For example, after creating a $28.6MM trade exception in a sign-and-trade sending Gordon Hayward to Charlotte in 2020, the Celtics used that TPE to acquire Evan Fournier at the following deadline and then to acquire Josh Richardson during the 2021 offseason.

However, as our tracker shows, there are currently no trade exceptions worth anywhere near $28MM. In fact, the largest current TPE barely eclipses the $10MM mark.

Here are the all of the current trade exceptions worth more than $4MM, along with their expiry dates in parentheses:

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder: $10,183,800 (10/2/23)
  2. Utah Jazz: $9,774,884 (2/9/23)
  3. Los Angeles Clippers: $9,720,900 (2/10/23)
  4. Utah Jazz: $9,614,379 (7/6/23)
  5. Denver Nuggets: $9,125,000 (7/6/23)
  6. Boston Celtics: $6,907,815 (1/19/23)
  7. Utah Jazz: $6,745,122 (9/22/23)
  8. Portland Trail Blazers: $6,519,792 (2/6/23)
  9. Boston Celtics: $5,890,000 (2/10/23)
  10. Toronto Raptors: $5,250,000 (2/10/23)
  11. Washington Wizards: $5,220,900 (2/10/23)
  12. Atlanta Hawks: $4,564,980 (9/27/23)
  13. Minnesota Timberwolves: $4,374,000 (7/6/23)
  14. Oklahoma City Thunder: $4,220,057 (10/2/23)
  15. Sacramento Kings: $4,023,600 (2/8/23)

These trade exceptions aren’t useless. For instance, if Detroit made point guard Cory Joseph available, any of the top 11 TPEs on this list could be used to absorb Joseph’s $5,155,500 salary. The non-Utah TPEs in the top eight could be used to acquire Rudy Gay and his $6,184,500 cap hit from the Jazz. All 15 of them are big enough to take on the $3.5MM salary of Thunder big man Mike Muscala.

But these exceptions will ultimately be of no consequence when considering trade candidates who earn salaries well into the eight figures, since TPEs can’t be combined with other players or exceptions. There’s no scenario in which any of these trade exceptions could be used to take on the $18MM salary of Pacers center Myles Turner, for example.

That’s not the only factor working against the odds of most of these exceptions being used. All of the top 10 largest TPEs are controlled by teams that are rebuilding (the Thunder and Jazz), teams in the tax (the Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics), or teams that are just below the tax line and likely want to stay that way (the Trail Blazers and Raptors). In other words, they don’t fit the profile of clubs that are looking to take on additional salary without sending any out.

That doesn’t mean that none of these trade exceptions will be used — after all, it sometimes makes sense to take advantage of them even in a deal that a team could complete using salary matching (for instance, a team with a $10MM trade exception that swaps one $8MM player for another could use the exception to take on the incoming player and create a new $8MM exception using the outgoing player). However, it does mean that it’s unlikely any TPEs will be game-changers on this season’s trade market.

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Players Eligible For In-Season Veteran Extensions In 2022/23

November 12th, 2022 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in our glossary entry on veteran contract extensions, rookie scale extensions have historically been the most common form of contract extension in the NBA. However, the league’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement loosened the rules on eligibility for veteran extensions and made them more financially advantageous, especially for players who don’t expect mega-deals.

As a result, we’ve seen a substantial bump in veteran contract extensions in recent seasons. During the 2021/22 league year, 21 players signed them, and there’s a chance that number will be eclipsed in ’22/23.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Contract Extension Tracker]

Certain extension-eligible players, including perhaps Fred VanVleet, may prefer to wait until free agency to sign a new contract, since the biggest raise VanVleet can receive on an extension would be far less than the maximum contract he’d be eligible to earn on the open market.

The maximum starting salary a player like VanVleet can receive in a veteran extension is up to 120% of his current salary. A player on a more modest contract can receive a maximum starting salary worth up to 120% of the NBA’s estimated average salary.

For this season, 120% of the estimated average salary would work out to a $12,950,400 salary in the first year of a contract extension. A player who signs an extension that fits that bill could get up to four years and $58,017,792. Jakob Poeltl and Naz Reid are among the players eligible for that sort of deal.

Now that the regular season is underway, the number of veterans eligible for contract extensions has shrunk, since players with more than one year left on their contracts aren’t permitted to sign an in-season extension. But there are still a number of veterans in the final year of their respective contracts who remain eligible for extensions right up until the last day of the current league year.

Listed below are the players who meet the criteria for a veteran extension. Players who were recently traded can be extended, but they have to wait for six months after the trade to sign a contract longer than three total years (including the current season) with a raise exceeding 5%. If a player below is noted as having “limited” eligibility until a certain date, that’s why.

Once a player regains his full extension eligibility, he becomes eligible to sign an extension of up to five total years (including the current season) with a 20% first-year raise (or 20% of the estimated average salary).

Additionally, extension-eligible players with a player or team option for 2023/24 would have to eliminate that option year as part of an extension agreement in order to meet the necessary criteria.

Here’s the full list of veterans currently eligible for contract extensions:

Atlanta Hawks

  • None

Boston Celtics

  • None

Brooklyn Nets

Charlotte Hornets

  • None

Chicago Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers

Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

  • None

Detroit Pistons

  • None

Golden State Warriors

Houston Rockets

Indiana Pacers

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat

  • None

Milwaukee Bucks

Minnesota Timberwolves

New Orleans Pelicans

New York Knicks

  • None

Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando Magic

  • None

Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

  • None

Portland Trail Blazers

Sacramento Kings

San Antonio Spurs

Toronto Raptors

Utah Jazz

Washington Wizards

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Community Shootaround: Utah Jazz

November 9th, 2022 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

When our readers voted on teams’ win totals for the 2022/23 season in September, the Jazz were given an over/under of 25.5 wins and voters overwhelmingly took the “under” on that number. After trading away Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Royce O’Neale in the offseason, Utah was considered one of the frontrunners in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, with a good chance to be a bottom-five team in the NBA.

Instead, three weeks into the regular season, the Jazz hold the top spot in the Western Conference, with their 9-3 record putting them a full game ahead of Phoenix, Denver, and Portland, all of whom are 7-3.

And it’s not as if Utah has been beating up on fellow lottery-bound teams. The Jazz have road wins in Minnesota, New Orleans, and Los Angeles (over both the Lakers and Clippers). They’ve beaten Memphis twice and Denver once, and they’re undefeated (5-0) at home.

As Ryan McDonald of The Deseret News notes, the Jazz’s offense has been one of the NBA’s best, ranking third in the league in points per 100 possessions. And that offensive production is coming from newcomers and incumbents alike.

Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton, acquired in the Mitchell blockbuster, are two of the team’s top three scorers, with Markkanen (21.9 PPG) leading the way. Jordan Clarkson (18.3 PPG on .444/.421/.731 shooting) and Mike Conley (12.5 PPG, 7.5 APG, .426 3PT%) have also been important contributors, with Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt playing key roles too.

According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, the fact that the Jazz are having some success instead of bottoming out in the early part of the season hasn’t come as a surprise to Utah players, who believed there was still plenty of talent on the revamped roster.

“We just kind of looked around (in training camp) and said we’re not anything what they say we are,” Conley said. “We have too many good players to tank. We knew from day one. This wasn’t a rebuild. We told ourselves that we aren’t that bad, and the guys locked in on that. We had a collective belief system and we knew we had a chance to have a good start.”

“Mike was preaching that to us,” Sexton told Jones. “It gave us a lot of confidence. Plus, there were so many people writing us off that we wanted to come out and play with a chip on our shoulders.”

Conley, who describes the Jazz as “gritty and mean and carefree at the same time,” joked to Tim MacMahon of ESPN that if the front office wants to lose, “They’ve got to get rid of me too.” While the veteran guard made the statement in jest, it raises an interesting question: What’s next for the NBA’s most surprising team?

If CEO Danny Ainge, general manager Justin Zanik, and Jazz management are committed to securing a top pick in the 2023 draft, perhaps more moves could be coming — Clarkson and Conley are the returning veterans who are the most obvious trade candidates, and it’s possible the team could flip some of the newly added pieces, such as Olynyk and Beasley.

But continuing the roster teardown would risk upsetting the positive culture and chemistry that new head coach Will Hardy and the new Jazzmen are building in Utah. Perhaps the front office will look at the roster, recognize there’s still not enough talent there to make the Jazz a legitimate contender this season, and count on the team coming down to earth on its own after a hot start.

Remaining in the play-in mix for the rest of the season could create some positive vibes heading into 2023/24 while still putting the team in position to land a pick in the top half of what should be a deep 2023 draft.

We want to know what you think. How real is this 9-3 start in Utah? Can the Jazz be a playoff team this season? Should they stick to their offseason plan and keep selling, or is standing pat (or even exploring buying) the right call at this point?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Community Shootaround: Lottery Teams

November 7th, 2022 at 6:47pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Powerball lottery jackpot grew to a world record $1.9 billion on Monday. Coincidentally, four of the five NBA teams with the top picks in the June draft faced each other.

The Magic and top pick Paolo Banchero were matched up against the Rockets and No. 3 pick Jabari Smith. The Thunder, who won’t have No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren available until next season, played against the Pistons and No. 5 pick Jaden Ivey.

The Kings, who drafted Keegan Murray at No. 4, had a much different test facing the defending champion but struggling Warriors.

A few of those teams have habitually participated in the lottery. Orlando has finished 11th or worse in the Eastern Conference in eight of the past 10 seasons. Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 2008. Sacramento, of course, has gone 16 seasons without a postseason visit.

Oklahoma City got eliminated in the first round four straight years before going into a full rebuild. The Thunder have seemingly have stockpiled more draft picks than wins since the 2020/21 season. Houston has taken a similar approach.

How have these teams looked so far this season? Let’s break it down:

  • Magic — Banchero has lived up to his status, averaging 22.9 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists. It hasn’t translated into victories, as Orlando headed into Monday’s game with a 2-8 record.
  • Rockets — Last year’s No. 2 pick, Jalen Green, is averaging 19.5 points while Smith has posted averages of 10.8 points and 6.1 rebounds. They had only one win in their first 10 outings.
  • Thunder — With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at an All-Star level (30.5 points, 5.9 assists), they headed into Detroit with a 4-5 record. Last year’s lottery selection, Josh Giddey, ranks second on the club in scoring (13.5).
  • Kings — Murray is averaging 13.9 points but, not surprisingly, De’Aaron Fox leads the team in scoring (26.3) and assists (4.6). Sacramento lost its first four games but has rebounded to win three of its last four outings.
  • Pistons — Ivey has scored in double digits in all but one game while averaging 15 points. Last year’s top pick, Cade Cunningham, is averaging 21.4 points and 6.3 assists. Yet wins have been scarce, as they entered the week with a 2-8 record.

That brings us to today’s question: Among the five teams with the highest lottery picks in the June draft — the Magic, Thunder, Rockets, Kings and Pistons — which franchise has the brightest future and is closest to becoming a perennial playoff team?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Community Shootaround: Milwaukee Bucks

November 4th, 2022 at 1:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Eighteen days into the 2022/23 NBA regular season, only one team remains undefeated. The Bucks have opened the season with seven straight victories and will put their 7-0 record on the line in a Friday night showdown vs. the Timberwolves in Minnesota.

The Bucks were viewed as one of this season’s top title contenders ahead of the season, so the fact that they’re off to a strong start comes as no surprise. Still, it’s an impressive feat for a team that’s missing several key rotation players.

All-Star forward Khris Middleton has yet to play at all while recovering from offseason wrist surgery. Pat Connaughton also hasn’t played yet for Milwaukee due to a calf strain, and Joe Ingles remains sidelined as he continues to rehab from an ACL tear.

In spite of their missing wing depth, the Bucks have an unblemished record in the early going thanks in large part to the usual MVP-caliber play of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging an eye-popping 33.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in just 33.4 minutes per game.

Having a healthy Brook Lopez back in the starting lineup averaging 30-plus minutes per game has also been a boon for the Bucks, especially on defense. Milwaukee’s 101.3 defensive rating is easily the NBA’s best, and the team also ranks atop the league in rebounding rate (53.2%) and opponents’ field goal percentage (41.9%).

As impressive as the Bucks’ start has been, there are some caveats worth mentioning. Six of their seven games have been at home and only one of their wins has come against a team (Philadelphia) that finished in the top six of its conference last season. Milwaukee’s other victories have come against Atlanta, New York, Brooklyn, Houston, and Detroit (twice).

Still, if the Bucks can get by an up-and-down Wolves team on Friday, they’ll be in good position to keep their winning streak rolling. Three of their next four games after Friday will be against the Thunder and Spurs, two teams considered lottery-bound.

We want to know your early-season impressions of the Bucks and your expectations for the team going forward. How long can Milwaukee extend its undefeated run to open the season? When Middleton, Connaughton, and Ingles get healthy, should the Bucks be considered the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference? Is Antetokounmpo the early MVP frontrunner?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your two cents!

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Special Trade Eligibility Dates For 2022/23

November 2nd, 2022 at 1:26pm CST by Luke Adams

In a pair of previous articles, we took a closer look at the trade restrictions placed on two groups of players who signed free agent contracts this past offseason. The smaller of the two groups featured players who can’t be traded by their current teams until January 15, having re-signed on contracts that met a set of specific criteria. The other offseason signees we examined aren’t eligible to be traded until December 15.

In addition to those two groups, there are a few other subsets of players who face certain trade restrictions this season. They either can’t be traded until a certain date, can’t be traded in certain packages, or can’t be traded at all this season.

Listed below are the players affected by these trade restrictions. This list, which we’ll continue to update throughout the season as needed, can be found on our desktop sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features,” or in our mobile menu under “Features.”

Players who recently signed as free agents or had their two-way contracts converted:

A player who signs a free agent contract typically becomes trade-eligible either three months after he signs or on December 15, whichever comes later. That means a player who signs on September 22 would become trade-eligible on December 22.

Similarly, players who have two-way pacts converted to standard contracts can’t be dealt for three months after that happens.

Here are the affected players, who signed free agent contracts or were converted from two-way deals after September 15, along with the dates their trade restrictions lift. Players marked with an asterisk (*) have the ability to veto trades:

December 16:

December 17:

December 18:

December 23:

December 26:

January 2:

January 3:

January 16:

Players who sign free agent contracts or have their two-way deals converted to standard contracts after November 9 this season won’t become trade-eligible prior to the 2023 trade deadline, which falls on February 9. The following players (listed in alphabetical order) fall into that category:

Players who recently signed veteran contract extensions:

A player who signs a veteran contract extension can’t be dealt for six months if his new deal includes a raise greater than 5% and/or puts him under contract for more than three total years (including his current contract). An extension that meets either of those criteria would exceed the NBA’s extend-and-trade limits.

A player can sign a veteran extension and remain trade-eligible as long as his new deal doesn’t include a raise of more than 5% and doesn’t lock him up for more than three total seasons. Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic, for instance, remains eligible to be traded after signing a two-year extension that features only a 2.3% raise.

Here are the players whose recent veteran extensions exceed the extend-and-trade limits, along with the dates their trade restrictions lift:

December 28:

January 7:

January 9:

January 18:

January 20:

Ineligible to be traded before this season’s February 9 deadline:

Additionally, when a player signs a super-max contract extension, he becomes ineligible to be traded for one full year. That means the following players also won’t be trade-eligible during the 2022/23 season, despite signing their new deals near the very start of the league year:

Players who were recently traded:

Players who were recently traded can be flipped again immediately. However, unless they were acquired via cap room, they can’t be traded again immediately in a deal that aggregates their salary with another player’s for matching purposes.

For instance, after acquiring Kelly Olynyk from Detroit on September 22, the Jazz could have turned around and traded Olynyk and his $12.8MM salary right away for another player earning about the same amount. But if Utah wanted to package Olynyk and, say, Mike Conley ($22.7MM) in a deal for a big-money player, the team would have had to wait two months to do so.

There are only a few trades that currently fall within the aggregation restriction window, and nearly all of the players involved in those deals have since been waived or were acquired via cap room. However, there are a handful of players affected.

Here are the dates when players traded this season can once again have their salaries aggregated in a second trade:

November 3:

November 22:

November 27:

Any player who is traded after December 9 (without being acquired via cap room) won’t be eligible to be flipped before the trade deadline in a second deal that aggregates his salary with another player’s.

Note: Only players on standard, full-season contracts are listed on this page. Players who sign 10-day contracts can’t be traded. Players who sign two-way deals can’t be traded for up to 30 days after signing.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

November 2nd, 2022 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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Recap Of 2023/24 Rookie Scale Option Decisions

November 1st, 2022 at 7:57am CST by Luke Adams

Decisions on rookie scale options for the 2023/24 season were due on Monday — any team that wanted to exercise a third- or fourth-year option on a player for next season was required to do so by October 31.

As is typically the case, a huge majority of those options were picked up. Even for top picks, who are paid higher salaries due to the NBA’s rookie scale, those third- and fourth-year options are relatively team-friendly. So unless a player has fallen well short of his team’s expectations, it generally makes sense to lock in his salary for the following season at this point.

However, not every player with a 2023/24 team option had it exercised by Monday’s deadline. The players who had those options declined will now be on track to reach unrestricted free agency during the summer of 2023, assuming they’re not waived before then. At the end of the season, their teams won’t be able to offer them starting salaries that exceed the value of their declined options.

Listed below are the players who had their options turned down, followed by the players whose options were exercised. If a player had his option picked up, his ’23/24 salary is now guaranteed and he won’t be eligible for free agency until at least 2024.

Declined options:

Note: These players will become unrestricted free agents in 2023.

The Jazz’s decisions on Azubuike and Bolmaro weren’t major surprises. Both players weren’t considered locks to make the regular season roster during the preseason, and Utah is prioritizing cap space for the 2023 offseason. Azubuike and Bolmaro have failed to establish themselves as reliable rotation players so far, logging just 264 and 257 total NBA minutes, respectively.

The Magic’s decision on Hampton was a little more unexpected, given that he was one of the centerpieces of the team’s Aaron Gordon trade with Denver in 2021. Hampton has flashed some scoring and play-making abilities since arriving in Orlando, including making 35.0% of his three-pointers last season, but it seems he’s no longer a key piece in the Magic’s long-term plans.

These three players remain under contract for the 2022/23 season. They won’t be able to receive starting salaries worth more than their declined options when they reach free agency in 2023.

Exercised options:

Fourth year:

Note: These players will become eligible for rookie scale extensions in July of 2023. If they’re not extended, they’ll be on track for restricted free agency in 2024.

Third year:

Note: Teams will have to make fourth-year option decisions for 2024/25 on these players by October 31, 2023.

For a team-by-team breakdown of this year’s rookie scale option decisions for the 2023/24 season, along with full stories on each decision, you can check out our tracker.

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2023 NBA Draft Pick Swaps To Monitor

October 28th, 2022 at 12:45pm CST by Luke Adams

It’s far too early in the 2022/23 NBA season to look at the standings and draw sweeping conclusions about which teams are headed for the postseason and which are lottery-bound.

Still, Victor Wembanyama‘s impending arrival casts a long shadow over this season — having even an outside shot at landing the best NBA prospect since LeBron James may prompt some struggling teams to pivot to tank mode midway through the year rather than pushing for a play-in spot.

Since any prolonged slump could make a team’s fans wonder if tanking for Wembanyama is the smart play, it’s worth noting up front which clubs would and wouldn’t realistically have a shot at him if they finish in the lottery. A team could go 0-82 and still have a 0% chance of drafting Wembanyama if that team has already traded away its unprotected 2023 first-round pick.

Here are a few of the unprotected draft-pick swaps and trades worth keeping in mind as the 2022/23 season progresses:

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have faced a challenging set of opponents during their 0-4 start and seem likely to bounce back sooner or later, at least to some extent. But if you’ve watched the team look inconsistent and out of sorts on offense while making three-pointers at a record-low rate, you can’t be blamed for wondering if it might be in the franchise’s best interest to tank for a shot at Wembanyama and reload for next season, when Russell Westbrook‘s $47MM cap hit comes off the books.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, that’s not an option. As part of the Anthony Davis trade, the Lakers gave the Pelicans the ability to swap first-round picks in 2023. So if the Lakers miss the postseason and win the draft lottery, that No. 1 overall pick would go to New Orleans, not L.A.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets haven’t looked much better than the Lakers so far this season. They’re off to a 1-4 start and have the NBA’s worst defense (120.2 defensive rating), with new addition Ben Simmons looking uncomfortable on the court. Again, it’s unlikely they’ll play this poorly all season, but if things continue to go downhill, would tanking be an option for the Nets?

Brooklyn’s draft-pick situation is an unusual one. Theoretically, the Nets could secure the No. 1 pick in 2023, but only if Philadelphia misses the playoffs and wins the draft lottery, since Brooklyn controls the Sixers‘ pick.

The Rockets have the ability to swap their own first-rounder with the Nets’ pick, so if Brooklyn finishes in the lottery and the Sixers don’t, the highest pick the Nets could get would be No. 2 overall (if they and the Rockets earned the top two spots via the lottery).

Given that the Rockets are a good bet to be at or near the bottom of the NBA’s standings, a poor season from the Nets would still probably ensure a strong draft pick, even if they have to swap picks — but it wouldn’t give them a shot at Wembanyama.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 1-4 Sixers haven’t looked right so far this season, especially defensively. There’s too much talent on the roster for them to continue losing games at this rate, but it’s worth noting that they won’t have their first-round pick at all in 2023. That first-rounder will be sent to the Nets, unless it’s worse than Brooklyn’s and Houston’s picks, in which case it will be rerouted to the Jazz.

Los Angeles Clippers

Like their Crypto.com Arena cohabitants, the Clippers have a first-round pick in 2023, but it’s not guaranteed to be their own. As part of the Paul George trade, L.A. gave the Thunder the ability to swap first-rounders in 2023.

The odds of the Thunder finishing ahead of the Clippers in this year’s standings are virtually nil, but this swap is still worth mentioning on the heels of Oklahoma City defeating L.A. in consecutive games this week. Both teams are currently 2-3.

Minnesota Timberwolves/Milwaukee Bucks

The Timberwolves and Bucks have both traded away their 2023 first-round picks without protections. Minnesota’s pick is headed to the Jazz, while Milwaukee’s will be sent to the Rockets.

If the Wolves and Bucks live up to their expectations this year, those picks should land somewhere in the 20s and be well removed from the Wembanyama sweepstakes.

The rest

Several more 2023 first-round picks will likely change hands next spring, but all of the rest of the traded picks for ’23 have some form of protection on them. For instance, Chicago’s 2023 first-rounder will likely be sent to the Magic, but it has top-four protection, so if they were to win the draft lottery, the Bulls would keep that pick.

A full list of the traded 2023 first-round picks can be found right here.

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