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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

June 5th, 2024 at 3:14pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning no more than 22 games for three consecutive seasons, the Rockets entered last summer armed with a ton of cap room and a determination to move out of their rebuilding phrase and toward legitimate contention. After hiring Ime Udoka as their new head coach, they focused on veteran free agents who could make an impact on both ends of the court, missing out on Brook Lopez but landing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

The Rockets’ offseason moves were a success. VanVleet, Brooks, and Udoka were culture-setters in Houston, imposing their personalities on a team that played with a hard-nosed edge. The young core took a major step forward, as Alperen Sengun enjoying a breakout year, Jalen Green finished the season strong, Jabari Smith made significant strides in his second season, and Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore showed real promise as rookies.

While the Rockets still fell short of the postseason, they finished with a 41-41 record in a competitive Western Conference, nearly doubling their win total after posting a 22-60 mark in 2022/23.

The roster will start to get more expensive once the players on rookie contracts graduate to their second deals, but the front office has done a nice job staggering its financial commitments (VanVleet’s guaranteed money expires in 2025 at the same time Green’s and Sengun’s next deals would begin) and has an excess of future first-round picks despite not controlling its own 2024 and 2026 first-rounders. Houston’s youngsters have room to keep improving, and the team has the cap and roster flexibility to continue pursuing upgrades.

This version of the Rockets doesn’t yet have the same high ceiling that the James Harden-led teams of the late-2010s did, but there’s reason for genuine optimism in Houston again after a rough couple years following the trade that sent Harden to Brooklyn.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan

After carrying more than $60MM in cap room into the 2023 offseason, the Rockets don’t project to be under the cap this summer. They have nearly $122MM in guaranteed money on the books, plus a $10MM cap hold for their lottery pick, leaving no meaningful room below the projected cap of $141MM even if they purge the roster of non-guaranteed salary, team options, and cap holds for free agents.

Houston does have some interesting decisions to make though, starting with whether or not to retain Jeff Green ($8MM team option), Jock Landale ($8MM non-guaranteed salary), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.6MM team option).

It’s hard to make a convincing case that any of Green, Landale, or Tate would match or exceed their current 2024/25 salaries if they were waived and then signed new contracts. But it won’t be all that surprising if the Rockets bring back at least two – and perhaps all three – of those players for one important reason: their mid-sized cap hits and lack of guaranteed money beyond ’24/25 would make them logical trade chips in a deal for an impact player.

With no cap room available, the Rockets aren’t in position to take on a significant salary outright, and they don’t have many obviously expendable guaranteed contracts on their books. Only six Houston players are earning more than $5.5MM next season: VanVleet, Brooks, Steven Adams, Green, Smith, and Thompson.

I can’t see VanVleet and Brooks going anywhere after the positive impact they had in their first year as Rockets; Houston will want to see what it has in Adams after acquiring an injured version of him at February’s trade deadline; and while perhaps one of those younger players could be included in a package for a star, none are earning more than $12.5MM, so their salary-matching potential is limited.

In other words, the combined $23.6MM that Green, Landale, and Tate would be owed in 2024/25 could come in handy as flotsam in a trade, even if none of those players are major contributors on the court. Guaranteeing all three contracts would increase the Rockets’ team salary to about $154MM for 13 players, giving the club plenty of breathing room below the projected luxury tax line of $171MM. The club would still have enough flexibility to go shopping for one more complementary role player using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (it will be worth about $12.9MM).

The trade target most frequently connected to the Rockets has been Nets forward Mikal Bridges, who makes sense for a variety of reasons. For one, he’s the sort of two-way contributor Houston has prioritized under Udoka. Bridges’ scoring efficiency and perimeter defense took a step back this past season, but that’s likely because he was asked to be the No. 1 offensive option in Brooklyn. If he were a Rocket, he’d be leaned on more for his three-and-D prowess than his scoring, allowing him to take better shots on offense and preserve his energy for tough defensive assignments.

One crucial reason Bridges would be such a logical trade target is the fact that the Rockets control the Nets’ first-round draft picks for several years, starting with the No. 3 overall pick in 2024. Houston also owns Brooklyn’s unprotected 2026 first-rounder and has swap rights in 2025 and 2027.

Bridges’ $23.3MM cap hit would be easy to match with expiring contracts and perhaps a prospect or two, and the Rockets could offer the Nets control of their first-round picks back (along with other draft assets), putting Brooklyn in a far better position to retool. However, to date, the Nets have resisted the idea of trading Bridges, reportedly expressing a preference to build around him.

If the Rockets have no luck in their pursuit of Bridges, they could pivot to other targets with similar skill sets. Paul George and OG Anunoby would make a lot of sense on Houston’s roster, but both will be free agents and are unlikely to choose Houston over strong alternatives in Los Angeles, New York, and/or Philadelphia. Brandon Ingram is expected to be available via trade, though he’s not the kind of defensive stopper the Rockets would ideally want.

The most intriguing non-Bridges trade candidate for Houston’s purposes might be Jerami Grant. The Trail Blazers have shown little interest in moving him so far, but given how far away they are from contention, they’d be wise to listen to offers — and the Rockets could make a good one. Bruce Brown and Dorian Finney-Smith are among the lower-level trade candidates who could be fits in Houston.

The Rockets can afford to be patient if no good opportunities arise on the trade market this summer, circling back to consider their options at the 2025 trade deadline. By that time, they may get a better idea of what they have in Tari Eason, a 23-year-old wing whose career got off to a promising start before his sophomore season ended after just 22 games due to left leg surgery. It’s impossible to predict what sort of trajectory Eason’s career might follow coming off a major injury and based on such a small sample, but his three-and-D upside is real. In a best-case scenario, he develops into exactly the kind of player the Rockets are currently eyeing on the trade market.

Houston also has an opportunity to land a future impact player using the No. 3 overall pick, assuming it’s not included in a trade. As we’ve noted repeatedly, this year’s draft class is considered weak, but the Rockets don’t need to land a franchise player with that pick — turning it into another above-average rotation player would be a success. Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard would be an intriguing option for a Rockets team in need of shooting. Houston finished 23rd in the NBA last season with a 35.2% conversion rate on three-pointers, while Sheppard knocked down an incredible 52.1% in his freshman year.

Whether or not the Rockets add shooting in the draft or via trade, they’ll be in position to do so on the free agent market using the MLE. Caleb Martin, Derrick Jones, Naji Marshall, and Isaac Okoro are among the potential three-and-D free agent wings in the mid-level range to keep an eye on for Houston.

Finally, while the Rockets can wait a year on this front if they need to, it’s worth noting that Sengun and Green will both be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. Neither situation is clear-cut. Sengun had an awesome third year, but Houston played some of its best basketball down the stretch without him, and the team hasn’t yet gotten a chance to see how effective he can be alongside a more traditional starting center like Adams.

As for Green, he was terrific during the season’s final few weeks, but was that enough for the Rockets to feel comfortable making a massive financial commitment to him? Before closing out the year by averaging 24.5 points and 4.0 assists per game on .454/.373/.808 shooting in his final 24 games, Green had put up 17.6 PPG and 3.4 APG on .406/.308/.802 shooting in his first 58 contests.

Unless they can get him to agree to a relatively team-friendly rate well below the max, the Rockets may want to see a little more from Green in terms of scoring efficiency and defense. Both he and Sengun would be restricted free agents in 2025 if they don’t sign extensions this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jock Landale ($8,000,000)
    • Landale’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 29.
  • Total: $8,000,000

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Jeff Green ($8,000,000): Non-Bird rights
    • Green’s salary would remain non-guaranteed until July 11 if his option is exercised.
  • Jae’Sean Tate ($7,565,217): Bird rights
    • Tate’s cap hit includes a $7,065,217 base salary and $500,000 in likely incentives.
  • Total: $15,565,217

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($10,128,480 cap hold)
  • No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $10,128,480

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Steven Adams (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Jalen Green (rookie scale)
  • Alperen Sengun (rookie scale)
  • Jae’Sean Tate (veteran)
    • Team option must be exercised.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Rockets project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $4,510,000
    • Expires on October 17.
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Hoops Rumors Glossary: July Moratorium

June 5th, 2024 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA free agents come off the board in rapid succession as soon as the league-wide negotiating period opens on June 30 at 6:00 pm Eastern time. However, most of those deals can’t become official right away, due to what’s known in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement as the “moratorium period.” We know it colloquially as the July moratorium.

The July moratorium – which lasts from 12:01 am Eastern time on July 1 until 12:00 pm on July 6 – essentially puts a freeze on most transactions for several days at the start of the new league year. NBA free agents are allowed to negotiate with clubs during the moratorium, and they can agree to terms on new contracts, but they are unable to officially sign new deals until the moratorium ends. The same goes for trades — two teams can agree to terms on a deal, but can’t formally put it through until at least July 6.

While nearly every agreement reached during the July moratorium eventually gets finalized, the unofficial nature of those initial deals can occasionally wreak havoc on the league’s free agent market.

DeAndre Jordan‘s 2015 free agency isn’t the only example of this, but it’s certainly the most memorable one from the last decade. Jordan initially agreed to terms with the Mavericks during the July moratorium, but before the moratorium ended and the two sides could make it official, the Clippers changed Jordan’s mind and convinced him to re-sign with L.A.

Because Jordan and the Mavs had only reached an informal verbal agreement, there was nothing Dallas could do to stop him from reversing course during the moratorium. Still, this sort of about-face is rare, as it can result in fractured relationships between players, agents, and teams.

While most NBA transactions can’t be completed during the moratorium, there are several exceptions to that rule. The following moves are permitted between July 1 and July 6:

  • A team can sign a first-round draft pick to his rookie scale contract.
  • A team can sign a second-round draft pick using the second-round pick exception.
  • A team can sign a player to a one- or two-year minimum-salary contract.
  • A restricted free agent can sign a qualifying offer from his current team.
  • A restricted free agent can sign a five-year, fully guaranteed maximum-salary contract with his current team.
  • A restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with a new team; the one-day matching period would begin once the moratorium ends.
  • A team can sign a player to a two-way contract, convert a two-way contract into a standard NBA deal, or convert an Exhibit 10 deal into a two-way contract.
  • A team can waive a player or claim a player off waivers.
  • A team can exercise its third- or fourth-year team option on a rookie scale contract.
  • A second-round pick can accept a required tender (a one-year contract offer) from his team.

Under older Collective Bargaining Agreements, the NBA finalized the salary cap at some point during the July moratorium, and the new cap would take effect once the moratorium ended. However, the current CBA calls for the salary cap for the new league year to be set before the start of July, with the new figure going into effect immediately on July 1. This gives teams more clarity on exactly how much room they have available as they negotiate with free agents during the moratorium.

Several years ago, the NBA moved the start of its free agency negotiating period forward by six hours, opening that window at 6:00 pm ET on June 30 instead of at 12:01 am ET on July 1. Although the July moratorium doesn’t technically begin until July 1, free agents who reach agreements quickly can’t officially sign on June 30, since their old contracts haven’t technically expired yet. That rule will also apply this year to free agents who reach agreements with their own teams during the exclusive negotiating period between the end of the NBA Finals and June 30.

However, if an extension-eligible veteran agrees to a new deal with his current team, he can officially complete that extension during that six-hour period on June 30, before the moratorium goes into effect — Thaddeus Young (Raptors) and Gary Harris (Magic) took this route in 2022, formally finalizing their new contracts as extensions on the evening of June 30 before the moratorium period began.

Finally, it’s worth noting that while we refer to this period at the start of free agency as the “July” moratorium, it doesn’t always take place in July. For instance, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the moratorium period instead occurred in November in 2020 and in August in 2021.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

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Poll: Who Will Win 2024 NBA Finals?

June 5th, 2024 at 10:15am CST by Luke Adams

Based on what we’ve seen to this point in the 2023/24 NBA season, we have little reason to view the Celtics as anything but strong favorites entering the NBA Finals. Betting website BetOnline.ag agrees, listing them at -220 to win the series.

Boston finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, seven games ahead of any other team in the NBA, 14 games ahead of any other Eastern Conference team, and 14 games ahead of the Mavericks.

Only 21 teams in NBA history have won more games in a single regular season than the Celtics did this year, and 15 of those clubs won championships.

Only two teams in league history have had a higher regular season net rating (+11.7) than the Celtics did in 2023/24, and both of those teams (the 1996 and 1997 Bulls) won titles.

None of this year’s playoff teams has a better postseason record (12-2) or net rating (+10.8) than the Celtics. By comparison, the Mavericks are at 12-5 and +4.1.

So what’s the case against the Celtics? Well, there are a few factors to consider with Game 1 set to tip off on Thursday.

For one, will the Celtics have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis? The big man intends to suit up on Thursday, barring a setback, but he admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’s not sure whether he’s 100% after being sidelined for approximately five weeks due to a calf strain that forced him to miss two full rounds of the playoffs.

If Porzingis is unavailable or unable to perform at his usual level, it would reduce the Celtics’ offensive options and limit their ability to protect the rim on defense. The Mavericks have thrived this postseason in part by letting centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively hang out near the basket to defend the paint, allowing rival big men to let it fly from beyond the arc. That would be a more difficult strategy to deploy vs. Boston if Porzingis (who made 37.5% of 5.1 threes per game this season) is back in form.

The more difficult path the Mavericks traveled to reach the NBA Finals may be another point in their favor. None of the teams the Celtics defeated en route to the Finals had a top-10 record or a top-nine net rating during the regular season, and all three were missing their best players for part or all of the series vs. Boston (Jimmy Butler for Miami, Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland, and Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana).

Dallas, on the other hand, ran through three of the Western Conference’s top four seeds, knocking off a Clippers team that ranked seventh in net rating during the regular season before going on to upset the Thunder (No. 2 in net rating) and Timberwolves (No. 3). The Mavs weren’t supposed to make it this far, which means they’re essentially playing with house money at this point, whereas the Celtics – following a series of playoff letdowns in recent years – are in championship-or-bust mode and may be feeling more pressure.

Finally, while the Celtics had the strongest, most well-rounded starting lineup of any NBA team this season, the Mavericks showed in the Western Conference finals vs. Minnesota that if their stars – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – are the best players on the court, they can get enough from their role players to beat a team with a more talented supporting cast. Boston will have plenty of talented defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving, including Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but if the Mavs’ star guards can outplay Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’ll have a chance.

We want to know what you think. Are there enough compelling reasons to believe the Mavericks can pull off the upset and become the NBA’s 2024 champions, or will Boston cap off a dominant season by winning its record-setting 18th title?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

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Community Shootaround: Pistons’ Offseason

June 3rd, 2024 at 8:21pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Trajan Langdon, the Pistons‘ new president of basketball operations, has an enormous task ahead of him.

The Pistons were supposed to turn the corner this season and show marked improvement. Instead, they smashed into a brick wall, setting a single-season record for most consecutive losses and finishing with the league’s worst record. Adding to their misery, they dropped from the top spot to No. 5 in the draft lottery.

Troy Weaver’s four-year regime as general manager was a disaster. The Pistons won the lottery in 2021 and drafted Cade Cunningham, the only player on the roster with All-Star potential. Otherwise, his personnel moves only made a bad situation worse.

Langdon has been tasked with building a roster around Cunningham to maximize his talents. That means some serious evaluations of other recent first-round picks – Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Marcus Sasser – on the roster. All of those players have shown talent to some degree but none are surefire starters on a quality team.

Langdon also has some decisions to make regarding restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and Quentin Grimes, who is extension-eligible as he enters a contract year. It’s generally assumed the club will retain Fontecchio, who provided much-needed outside shooting after he was acquired from Utah, as long he doesn’t receive an overly generous offer sheet. Grimes, who barely played after being acquired from the Knicks due to injuries, is a bigger question mark.

The good news is the Pistons will have plenty of cap room – projected around $60MM – to spend on free agents and facilitate trades. The fact they still owe the Knicks a first-round pick hampers their ability to include draft assets in deals.

Another obvious issue is coach Monty Williams, who still has five years left on his contract. Langdon apparently has the leeway to hire another coach, but owner Tom Gores might not want to eat that much money unless Langdon has someone specific in mind who can turn things around quickly.

And that’s what makes the new president’s job even more difficult. The organization and its fans are tired of losing and don’t want to go through another long rebuilding process to see some positive results. Yet he inherits a roster that looked overmatched against its opponents on a regular basis.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What kind of moves should Langdon make this offseason to turn around the team’s fortunes? What type of players should he target in free agency and trades and which young players on his roster should he be willing to deal? Should he retain Williams or look for another coach?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Community Shootaround: Lakers’ Offseason

June 2nd, 2024 at 8:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Lakers always make some big headlines in the offseason and this summer will be no different.

They’ve already been in the news since the end of their regular season, firing Darvin Ham after just two seasons as their head coach. J.J. Redick and James Borrego are reportedly viewed as the frontrunners for the job.

What they do with their roster is more important to their legions of fans. A lot hinges on LeBron James‘ decision whether to exercise his player option or become a free agent. While it’s generally believed that James will stay put, either by opting in or by signing a new deal with Los Angeles, there’s no certainty until he commits contractually. If he’s open to going elsewhere, a team like the Sixers — with tons of cap room to work with — would love to add him to their star duo of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

The other major question mark regarding free agency is starting guard D’Angelo Russell, who has an $18.7MM player option. If Russell decides to go on the market, the Lakers will have to decide whether to pursue another contract with him or fill the hole in their lineup in another manner.

The Lakers will have more flexibility than in recent years regarding trading draft picks and making pick swaps. They control their own pick at No. 17 after the Pelicans deferred a trade obligation until next year’s draft. They also have two other future first-round picks to dangle after the free agency period begins in July.

In terms of tradeable salaries, the Lakers have four players besides their two superstars making at least $10MM next season — Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt. Reaves would be the most coveted of that group but the Lakers have been reluctant to part with the young guard. Vincent and Vanderbilt are coming off injury-marred seasons, leaving Hachimura ($17MM) as the most likely player to be dealt. However, the market for Hachimura would probably be lukewarm at best.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Assuming that LeBron remains with the team, what moves should the Lakers make this offseason to upgrade their team? Should they look to re-sign Russell if he opts out? Should they be more open to trading Reaves if they could get an All-Star level talent in return?

Let us know in the comments section. We look forward to your input.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

June 1st, 2024 at 10:30am CST by Rory Maher

When I previewed the Hawks‘ 2023 offseason a year ago, I wrote that they had been trending in the wrong direction since they made a surprise appearance the Eastern Conference finals in 2021.

That remained true in 2023/24, with Atlanta going just 36-46 and failing to make the playoffs for the first time since that ’20/21 run. The team was eliminated in its first play-in game as the No. 10 seed, ending the season on a seven-game losing streak.

In general, much of what I wrote last year remains an issue for Atlanta. The team has talent on the roster, but the pieces don’t fit well together and not many of the players are well-rounded.

Last offseason, the Hawks had a messy financial situation — that’s still the case. Owner Tony Ressler has never paid the luxury tax and there’s almost no chance he will next season with this group.

During the season, not a whole lot went well from a big-picture perspective. Nearly every player on the roster either stayed about the same or their value took a hit (Trae Young, AJ Griffin, Kobe Bufkin, Saddiq Bey). That certainly isn’t what the Hawks were hoping for in the first full campaign under head coach Quin Snyder.

Even the best part of the team’s season — the emergence of third-year forward Jalen Johnson — comes with a couple of caveats. The 22-year-old was limited to 56 games due to a variety of injuries, plus he’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. Those negotiations will be far from straightforward — the sample size of Johnson producing at a high level is pretty small, yet he seemingly has more leverage than most players in his situation.

The Hawks were never anything more than mediocre this past season. Maybe they could have been .500 — or at least closer to it — if they were a little healthier, but they didn’t have abnormally poor injury luck, and slightly better on-court results would have been a far worse outcome than what actually transpired, for a number of different reasons.

If Atlanta had made the playoffs, the team wouldn’t have been in the draft lottery. The Hawks wound up winning the lottery, moving up from No. 10 to No. 1 overall. The odds of that happening were just 3%.

If the Hawks had not only made the playoffs but had also made another surprising run by winning a round or two, that could have inspired further belief in the current roster. Perhaps the front office would have considered minor tweaks instead of a more drastic overhaul, which is sorely needed.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan

In most years, the No. 1 pick is extremely coveted. On some occasions, it can be franchise-altering. If the consensus among talent evaluators is accurate, 2024 is not that year.

The Hawks are reportedly expected to select a French prospect – either Zaccharie Risacher or Alexandre Sarr – with the top pick. UConn center Donovan Clingan has also reportedly received some consideration. The team should draft whichever player it thinks has the best chance of developing into an All-Star, because Atlanta needs more high-end talent.

Could the Hawks trade the top pick? Sure, they could. But if the perception is accurate that there isn’t a huge difference in value between No. 1 and No. 10, I don’t think the return would be worthwhile.

Atlanta will definitely be hoping it doesn’t win the lottery again in any of the next three years — as part of the Dejounte Murray deal, the Spurs control Atlanta’s unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027 and they have swap rights with the Hawks in ’26.

Last year, I wrote that the biggest offseason question facing the Hawks was “what to do with the backcourt pairing of Young and Murray.” The biggest question now is, which of the two should they trade?

Murray likely has more trade value than Young, largely due to his contract. Murray surprisingly signed a four-year, $111MM+ extension last offseason when he was expected to be seeking a max in 2024 free agency — that was one of the best things that happened to Atlanta in the last calendar year, as he would have far less trade appeal on a max deal.

In a vacuum, Young is a better player, but you have to build your team specifically around his skill set. Frankly, I’m not sure how many teams would even be interested in taking on the three-time All-Star’s maximum-salary contract.

Both players are somewhat polarizing. Murray has had moments of immaturity and is at his best with the ball in his hands, but he isn’t an efficient scorer and his defense has gone from plus to minus the past few seasons — the Hawks were much better defensively when the 27-year-old was off the court in ’23/24.

Since they don’t control their own picks for the next three years, the Hawks have no incentive to tank. It also makes the Spurs a natural source of speculation as a trade partner, as Atlanta would love to have those picks back.

I don’t see San Antonio seriously entertaining trade proposals for Young or Murray, especially if they’re centered around those picks. It would give the Hawks a free avenue to rebuild, and their current position is much more precarious and thus more advantageous for the Spurs.

For all his offensive talent, Young has always been a liability on the other end. He actually tried much harder on defense last season, but he’s relatively diminutive for an NBA player and is physically over-matched. He also doesn’t fit the archetype of what the Spurs have valued in recent years (length, defense, versatility).

Murray is probably more realistic. San Antonio drafted him and helped him develop into an All-Star. The Spurs already traded him once though, and his fit with their current roster would be awkward — they badly need shooting and that isn’t one of his main strengths.

This is admittedly a little outside the box, given they’ve traded away players each of the past two deadlines, but would the Jazz have interest in Young or Murray? A recent report said Utah is open to trading its picks this year and that rival teams think owner Ryan Smith is ready to add more high-end talent to the roster.

Utah will have enough cap room this summer to acquire Murray outright without taking any money back. And the team would only have to move one mid-sized contract to fit Young’s contract on the books.

The Lakers will continue to be linked to both guards. The Magic project to have plenty of cap room and don’t have a clear long-term answer at point guard, but maybe they don’t need one. The Pelicans have been linked to Murray and also have a hole at point.

Clint Capela is a prime trade candidate. The veteran center is on an expiring $22.3MM expiring contract and remains productive, but he has certain limitations (non-shooter, doesn’t dribble or pass well) and he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. For a player who is very reliant on athleticism, that’s a little worrying.

De’Andre Hunter is another player who will continue to pop up in trade rumors, even if Atlanta’s salary cap crunch is resolved. I’m not sure how much value he’ll have either, given his injury history and relatively stagnant production. The idea of a 3-and-D combo forward has always been intriguing, but his actual play has never consistently aligned with that notion.

Bogdan Bogdanovic is another veteran whose situation is worth monitoring. His skill set is easier to plug-and-play and he would thus hold a wider appeal, but Atlanta values him for the same reasons.

All three of those players could potentially be acquired by cap-room teams without sending any money back in return. I’m not implying the Hawks will just straight up dump them without getting any assets back — they’re all solid players — but Atlanta is financially incentivized to get below the luxury tax.

Including the cap hold for the No. 1 pick, the Hawks will have 11 players on guaranteed deals and a team salary of $170.9MM. The luxury tax line is projected to be $171.3MM. Something has to give.

I don’t expect Atlanta to re-sign Bey unless he comes at a major discount after tearing the ACL in his left knee in March. He likely would have been tendered a $8.5MM qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent if the injury hadn’t occurred, but I’d be a little surprised if it happens now.

Realistically, no one on this roster should be untouchable, even Johnson. I’m not advocating for Atlanta to trade him or anything, but if some team really wants him and is willing to overpay, the Hawks have to at least listen. They aren’t in a position to say anyone is off limits — they need to get better any way they can at this point. Even doing a reset with another team’s picks is better than continually dealing with expensive rosters that don’t produce the results needed to justify the costs.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Bruno Fernando ($2,717,391)
    • Fernando’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 29.
  • Total: $2,717,391

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Garrison Mathews ($2,230,253): Bird rights
    • If his option is exercised, Mathews’ salary would remain non-guaranteed until June 29.
  • Total: $2,230,253

Restricted Free Agents

  • Saddiq Bey ($8,486,620 qualifying offer / $13,670,949 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $13,670,949

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he is no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract, Windler’s qualifying offer would be worth the minimum salary for a player with five years of NBA experience (projected to be $2,432,511). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall pick ($12,605,760 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $12,605,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Clint Capela (veteran)
  • Bruno Fernando (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 2.
  • Jalen Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Garrison Mathews (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Trae Young (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Hawks project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they move below the first apron, they would gain access to the bi-annual exception ($4,681,000) and the full mid-level exception ($12,859,000) instead of the taxpayer mid-level exception and would regain access to their three trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $23,019,560 and expires on July 8).

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

May 31st, 2024 at 2:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls went 39-43 during the 2023/24 season, a year after going 40-42 in ’22/23 and two years after posting a 19-23 second-half record following Lonzo Ball‘s season-ending knee injury in ’21/22.

Yes, it briefly looked like the pieces might all fit together when Ball was healthy early in his first year with the team and the Bulls went 27-13, but that was a long time ago. Kristaps Porzingis was still a Maverick back then; Tyrese Haliburton was still a King; Carmelo Anthony was still in the NBA.

Whether or not Ball is able to return to action this fall, three knee surgeries and two-and-a-half seasons later, his presence won’t turn a team that has been unable to play .500 ball without him into a legitimate contender.

Changes are badly needed in Chicago, and with no indication that the Bulls are planning to replace head coach Billy Donovan or remove decision-making power from head of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas, those changes will have to come on the court, where the team simply can’t run out this roster again with only cosmetic changes.

The Bulls haven’t completed a trade involving a player on their roster since before Ball got hurt — their only deal during that time came on draft night in 2023, when they sent a couple future second-round picks to Washington for the right to draft Julian Phillips at No. 35. I expect that period of inactivity on the trade market to end in a major way this summer, given the ample evidence that the current group isn’t built to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan

Of course, even if the Bulls’ brass accepts the premise that this roster is stuck in the middle and major changes are necessary, there are no easy answers about what exactly the next moves look like.

When a team retools its roster, the process typically involves building around a rising young star and/or trading away an impact veteran or two in exchange for a valuable package of team-friendly contracts and draft assets. But the Bulls, who haven’t had a first-round pick in two of the last three years, don’t exactly have a plethora of young talent on rookie scale contracts to build around.

Coby White enjoyed a major breakout year in 2023/24 and is on a relatively team-friendly deal, but he projects more as an above-average starter going forward than a true star. Former second-rounder Ayo Dosunmu, another player already on his second contract, also looks more like a solid rotation piece than a future All-Star. Dalen Terry, Chicago’s 2022 first-rounder, has yet to earn a regular rotation role, while 2020 lottery pick Patrick Williams is headed for restricted free agency after suffering two major injuries in the past three years and never averaging more than 10.2 points per game. The Bulls are also picking outside the top 10 in this year’s draft, reducing the odds of finding a franchise cornerstone there.

Maybe, then, cashing in on some veteran trade chips is the way to go for Chicago. But the Bulls don’t have a Donovan Mitchell or a Rudy Gobert on hand to kick-start their retooling process like the Jazz did two summers ago when they traded those two stars for a total of eight players (including former Bull Lauri Markkanen), seven unprotected or lightly protected first-round picks, and three pick swaps.

The Bulls’ top trade chips come with more red flags, starting with Zach LaVine. LaVine is a terrific scorer who has a pair of All-Star nods and a career 38.2% three-point percentage on his résumé, but he’s coming off season-ending foot surgery, has never been an asset on the defensive end, and is owed approximately $138MM across the next three seasons. That contract is harder to stomach under the new CBA, which has created additional challenges for teams carrying multiple maximum-salary players. LaVine’s trade value will be at an all-time low this summer, so there’s no guarantee a trade partner will give up even one unprotected future first-rounder for him unless the Bulls attach another asset or take back some unwanted money.

Moving 33-year-old center Nikola Vucevic won’t be much easier. Vucevic’s shooting percentages in 2023/24 (.484 FG%, .294 3PT%) were below his career rates and he’s not a feared rim protector. His contract, which runs for two more years and is worth $41.5MM, isn’t especially onerous, but it’s not team-friendly either, which will limit his appeal as a trade piece.

DeMar DeRozan would have more value on the trade market than either LaVine or Vucevic, but his contract with the Bulls will expire next month, so he’s not a legitimate trade candidate unless the team can find a sign-and-trade partner. Alex Caruso might be Chicago’s most sought-after trade chip, but the team has set a high asking price for him during recent transaction windows, and now that he’s on an expiring contract, suitors would be reluctant to give up a substantial return unless they’re pretty confident they’d be able to extend him.

Given all these challenges, what might the Bulls’ offseason look like? Well, even if LaVine won’t return a huge package of first-round picks, it’s probably the right time for the two sides to go their separate ways, and there will likely be at least one team willing to take a swing on a player who once averaged 27.4 points per game on .507/.419/.849 shooting and is still just 29 years old.

Chicago’s blueprint in a LaVine trade should be the Russell Westbrook deal the Wizards made with the Lakers in 2021 — in that swap, Washington gave up Westbrook and a pair of future second-round picks in exchange for Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and that year’s No. 22 pick.

The Bulls likely won’t come out as well as Washington did, since Westbrook’s value was higher then than LaVine’s is now, but the goal should be to acquire a few role players whose cap hits are more manageable than LaVine’s $43MM figure and whom the Bulls might be able to get more out of than their previous team did. Any draft assets they can acquire on top of that would be great, but even just turning LaVine into two or three players who could play lesser roles and who could be flipped more easily in future deals could be a win, especially if the club can shed some salary in the process.

All indications are that the Bulls and DeRozan are interested in continuing their relationship as he enters his age-35 season. While I’m skeptical that DeRozan will still be playing at a high level by the time Chicago becomes a legitimate contender, I don’t hate the idea of re-signing him to a relatively short-term deal, perhaps one that includes two fully guaranteed years. The return in a sign-and-trade would likely be minimal, and he’s still a valuable enough asset that you’d prefer not to lose him for nothing. If the Bulls re-sign him and decide by the 2025 trade deadline that they want to tear the roster down further, DeRozan would be movable at that time.

Re-signing Williams to avoid losing the asset is also probably the right play — he has shown flashes of real two-way upside and the Bulls will be wary of repeating what happened with Markkanen, who blossomed into an All-Star after leaving Chicago. But the team will have to tread carefully in negotiations with Williams, who reportedly turned down a four-year, $64MM extension offer last fall. Investing long-term in the former No. 4 overall pick means betting on further growth and more consistent production. It’s a bit of a risk, so if there’s another suitor pushing up the price for Williams, the Bulls will have to determine just how high they’re willing to go to match it. It’s also worth noting that since he’ll be restricted, a sign-and-trade deal involving Williams would probably be more viable than one for DeRozan.

The Bulls will have to be careful about their proximity to the luxury tax line as they discuss new contracts with DeRozan and Williams. Once they fully guarantee Caruso’s salary and take into account the cap hold for the No. 11 overall pick, the Bulls will have about $130.4MM committed to 10 roster spots. On the surface, that looks like plenty of breathing room below the projected luxury tax line of $171.3MM, but DeRozan and Williams earned $38.4MM last season and are unlikely to make less than that in 2024/25. Bringing back those two players and adding two more minimum-salary players would almost certainly push team salary into tax territory, which the franchise has made an effort to avoid over the years.

With those financial constraints in mind, there are certain scenarios in which the Bulls may be inclined to let DeRozan or Williams walk, though that would be a tough sell to fans when the only real benefit is saving team ownership some money. Ideally, the Bulls would be able to cut costs elsewhere, perhaps by sending out more salary than they take back in a LaVine deal or by trading Jevon Carter‘s $6.5MM contract into another team’s cap room or trade exception.

Of course, moving off of Vucevic’s or Ball’s $20MM+ salaries would create more significant cap savings, but the Bulls couldn’t realistically expect anything of value back if the goal is to just dump those contracts. They’d definitely have to attach an asset or two to find a taker for Ball, and that may be true of Vucevic too if they’re not taking back an equivalent salary. It’s probably more prudent to hang onto those guys for now and see if they can improve their value as the season goes on.

Waiving and stretching the final year of Ball’s contract is another option if his knee continues to be a problem — that would save the team upwards of $14MM on its ’24/25 cap, likely avoiding tax issues in the short term, but would add $7MM per year for the following two seasons, so it’s not an ideal path.

For what it’s worth, it wouldn’t be hard to find a taker for Caruso’s expiring $10MM contract on the trade market without taking salary back, especially since teams will be able to use their mid-level exceptions as trade exceptions beginning this offseason. But the Bulls would likely only go that route if they’re hitting the full reset button and don’t intend to be competitive at all next season.

There’s certainly a case to be made that that’s the route management should take, but after Karnisovas stuck with this group for so long, it’s hard to picture him totally blowing it up all at once — the changes will likely be incremental, with LaVine among the first dominoes to fall.

Finally, while the No. 11 pick might not put Chicago in position to draft a future All-Star, there’s no reason the team shouldn’t be able to secure a prospect who will develop into a high-level rotation player. With White and Dosunmu expected to return and at least one or two of LaVine, Caruso, Carter, and/or Ball in the mix, the Bulls should be relatively set in the backcourt, but they could use help on the wing and in the frontcourt.

Tidjane Salaun, Ron Holland, Cody Williams, Ja’Kobe Walter, and Tristan Da Silva are some possible fits who could be available at No. 11. Zach Edey may be an intriguing option there too, since he appears more NBA-ready than many prospects in that range and the Bulls could have a hole at backup center if Andre Drummond commands a raise in free agency. Unless they’re able to shed salary in other moves, the Bulls will likely have to let Drummond walk and sign a minimum-salary veteran to back up Vucevic.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Alex Caruso ($6,890,000)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Caruso’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 30.
  • Onuralp Bitim ($1,891,857)
  • Andrew Funk (two-way)
  • Total: $8,781,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($5,210,760 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $5,210,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonzo Ball (veteran)
  • Alex Caruso (veteran)
  • DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Matt Thomas ($2,093,637 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: Thomas’ cap hold is on the Bulls’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Bulls project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron. If they approach or exceed the first apron, they would lose access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

May 30th, 2024 at 1:32pm CST by Rory Maher

The Grizzlies won 56 games in 2021/22 and 51 games in ’22/23, entering the playoffs as the West’s No. 2 seed on each occasion. However, they didn’t find much playoff success, winning one series over those two seasons despite compiling 107 regular season victories.

Entering ’23/24, expectations were a little lower, with a projected win total of 46.5. Memphis finished nowhere near that mark, going 27-55, the seventh-worst record in the NBA.

A big part of the reason why the Grizzlies’ projected win total was lower in October was star point guard Ja Morant had to serve a 25-game suspension following another off-court incident involving a firearm. After serving the suspension and playing nine games, Morant sustained a labral tear in his right shoulder after a training session in January. At the time of his surgery, the recovery was outlined as a six-month process; he’s reportedly making good progress.

Brandon Clarke‘s season was also essentially a wash. He returned in late March after sustaining a torn Achilles tendon in March 2023 and looked pretty good in his six games, but the team’s season was over by that point.

Starting center Steven Adams missed the entire season after undergoing knee surgery in October and was traded to Houston ahead of the February deadline. Marcus Smart, who was acquired in a three-team trade last summer (Memphis gave up Tyus Jones and two-first round picks), was limited to just 20 games due to a variety of injuries. The team’s best player in ’23/24, Desmond Bane, appeared in just just 42 games. The list goes on.

There were a couple bright spots amid the injury-ravaged season. Second-year wing Vince Williams had an unexpected breakout, earning a promotion from a two-way deal to a multiyear standard contract (he was also limited to 52 games due to injuries). And rookie GG Jackson, another former second-round pick who was converted to a standard deal, had a big second half, earning a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team in the process.

With Morant, Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. all under contract for at least the next two seasons, the Grizzlies still have a window to build around their three best players. But with Bane no longer on his rookie contract (his near-max rookie scale extension kicks in next season), their financial situation will be trickier to manage going forward.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan

Memphis experimented with using Jackson more at center in ’23/24, with mixed results. Having him more involved in pick-and-rolls defensively meant he couldn’t be a weak-side roamer, which is what he’s best at. He can also be overpowered by bigger centers and is a subpar rebounder for a big man.

Offensively, Jackson can theoretically space the floor (he only made 32.0% of his threes last season; he’s at 34.5% for his career), and he’s quicker than most centers, which enables him to drive and draw fouls. It’s essentially a trade-off of offense for defense, but it isn’t a particularly fruitful one.

Jackson was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in ’22/23. In ’23/24, he received no votes for the All-Defensive First Team and one for the Second Team. Obviously, utilizing him in a more effective way on that end is critical to the team’s success.

The Grizzlies fell two spots in the draft lottery and wound up with the No. 9 overall pick. After trading Adams and Xavier Tillman, center is a clear roster weakness, but the draft is light on big men who project to be available at that spot.

Do the Grizzlies really want to add another 19- or 20-year-old to a relatively young team that’s trying to win now? Unless they try to move up to snag a true center like Donovan Clingan, I think it’s probably more likely that they’ll trade their lottery pick for immediate help than keep it (they also control two second-rounders at No. 39 and No. 57).

If Memphis exercises its $14.8MM team option on Luke Kennard, the team would have 13 players with guaranteed deals and a team salary of approximately $172.5MM, including the dead-money cap hit of Kennedy Chandler. If the Grizzlies keep the No. 9 pick, that figure rises to about $178.2MM.

The projected luxury tax line for ’24/25 is $171.3MM. The first apron is at $178.7MM. If the Grizzlies pick up that option on Kennard, they would lose access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which starts at $12.86MM) and the bi-annual exception ($4.68MM). Instead, they would have the taxpayer MLE ($5MM).

On the other hand, declining the option could mean losing a productive role player and a useful mid-sized salary for trade purposes. Kennard is one of the league’s best shooters — his 43.9% career mark on three-pointers is tops among active players, and third-best all-time. He’s also a decent tertiary play-maker and moves the ball well. The problem is he’s a below-average defender, a weakness that tends to be exploited more in the playoffs.

The Grizzlies already have Morant, Bane and Smart on the roster. Would Kennard even be part of closing lineups? On offense, sure, he could be used in place of Smart, but wasting timeouts on offense-for-defense substitutions isn’t really a great strategy at the end of games.

Is this team, as currently constructed, worth paying the tax for? Probably not. But with a small tweak or two, it could be.

Let’s say the Grizzlies decline the option and use the non-taxpayer MLE to sign a free agent center or two. Nic Claxton will be out of their price range. The Knicks could just use their Early Bird rights on Isaiah Hartenstein to outbid Memphis if the Grizzlies offer him the full MLE.

The remaining list of free agent centers doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Former Grizzly Jonas Valanciunas remains highly productive as a post scorer and rebounder, but he’s 32 and struggles defensively. If they split the MLE, they might be able to sign both Andre Drummond and Goga Bitadze — I don’t hate the idea as a temporary solution, but I also don’t think it would help them contend for a championship.

If he actually becomes available this summer, Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen looks like a terrific fit for this roster. I imagine he would be near the top of the Grizzlies’ list of potential trade targets.

Allen is on a relatively team-friendly contract that will pay him $20MM each of the next two seasons. He’s 26, right around the age of Memphis’ top three players. He’s a strong defender who would be an athletic lob threat to pair with Morant. The former All-Star wouldn’t come cheap in a trade, but the Grizzlies have the pieces to pursue him.

Would the No. 9 pick, Clarke or Kennard, and a young, cost-controlled player who can contribute (like Williams or Jackson) be enough to get it done? (Another contract might be needed for salary-matching purposes.) The Cavs would probably counter by asking for a second first-rounder, since the Grizzlies control all of their future first-round picks, but Cleveland would at least have to consider it. Of course, the Cavs are trying to compete for a championship too, which makes the 2024 lottery pick less appealing unless they can flip it for win-now help.

If healthy, the Grizzlies have the framework of a good team — they went 6-3 in games Morant played last season, though that’s a small sample and it isn’t a given that he’ll stay out of trouble going forward. The problem is, “good” isn’t good enough in the West — the Pelicans won 49 games and were unable to avoid the play-in tournament. Memphis can’t just run it back with its current roster and hope for better health luck. The Grizzlies will need to improve this summer if they want to be a legitimate contender.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($5,773,800 cap hold)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 57 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $5,773,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Santi Aldama (rookie scale)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Luke Kennard (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Marcus Smart (veteran)
  • Ziaire Williams (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Yves Pons ($1,867,722 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $1,867,722

Note: Pons’ cap hold is on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Grizzlies project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron. If they approach or exceed the first apron, they would lose access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $12,600,000
  • Trade exception: $7,492,540
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $2,718,240
  • Trade exception: $1,930,681

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

May 27th, 2024 at 2:07pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nets were a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference in 2022/23, but that was largely due to the work of a pre-trade-deadline roster led by Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. After trading away Irving on February 6 (an injured Durant was moved three days later), the team went 13-17 down the stretch and was swept out of the playoffs in the first round by Philadelphia.

Those second-half and postseason results accurately reflected the level of the new-look roster, which underwent only marginal changes during the 2023 offseason. So it came as no real surprise that after hovering around .500 for much of the first half of this past season, Brooklyn eventually fell out of play-in contention, even in a weak Eastern Conference where the No. 10 seed finished with 36 wins. The team’s 32-50 record in 2023/24 wasn’t far off from its pace to finish the previous season.

While the Nets have some talented young players on their roster, none appear to be on a fast track to superstardom, so roster changes will be necessary to increase the team’s ceiling. But there’s no simple path to meaningful upgrades — Brooklyn is capped out this summer and doesn’t own a 2024 draft pick.

Going in the other direction and bottoming out in the hopes of landing a future star in the 2025 or 2026 draft isn’t really a viable path either, since the Nets don’t control their own first-round draft pick until 2028. As a result of the 2021 trade for James Harden, Brooklyn owes the Rockets its unprotected first-rounder in both 2024 (No. 3 overall) and 2026, along with swap rights in 2025 and 2027.

The situation isn’t quite as dire as it was for a few years in Brooklyn after the team’s misguided decision to mortgage several years of draft assets in a deal for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, which lined up the Celtics to draft Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in consecutive years. But the Nets will need some patience or some luck – or both – in order to reemerge as a legitimate contender in the East.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan

Mikal Bridges is the best player – and asset – on the Nets’ roster, but he was miscast as a No. 1 option in 2023/24. His play declined in the second half, and while he’d never ask for a night off (he hasn’t missed a single game since entering the league in 2018), the veteran forward probably wouldn’t mind facing a little less defensive attention going forward. Bridges averaged just 15.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting in his final 31 games of the season.

Bridges makes perfect sense as the second or third option on a contending team, slotting into a role like the one OG Anunoby played for the Knicks — he can make three-pointers and handle challenging defensive assignments, but he’s better off as a secondary scorer, not as someone who constantly has the ball in his hands.

Whether Bridges ends up in a more appropriate role in Brooklyn or elsewhere is the question. As noted above, the Nets don’t have cap room or draft picks this summer, so the only way to turn Bridges into their No. 2 option in 2024/25 would be to trade for a star.

That scenario isn’t out of the question. Despite not controlling their own draft picks in the coming years, the Nets have an excess of future assets from other teams – namely Dallas and Phoenix – as a result of last year’s Irving and Durant trades. They also have a huge salary-matching piece in Ben Simmons, who will make $40.3MM on an expiring contract in 2024/25. Brooklyn has frequently been linked to Donovan Mitchell and could certainly be a player in the bidding for the Cavaliers guard or another star who hits the trade market this summer.

I’d question whether that’s the right approach though. Mitchell – or an equivalent star – would certainly make the Nets a better team, but he wouldn’t make them a legitimate title contender, and the cost (not only in trade assets but in the form of a long-term maximum-salary contract for the incoming star) would limit the club’s ability to pursue further upgrades.

Team owner Joe Tsai recently talked about taking a “longer-term approach” to team-building, and the hiring of a player development specialist like Jordi Fernandez as Brooklyn’s new head coach suggests the organization isn’t looking to take big swings after a 32-50 season unless a can’t-miss opportunity falls into its lap. I’d be surprised if the Nets make a blockbuster win-now deal this offseason — it makes more sense to build up the roster patiently and incrementally like they did the last time they went through a retooling process without their own draft picks.

Of course, there is another potential route available to the Nets: Bridges would have significant value on the trade market. Head of basketball operations Sean Marks and his front office have been adamantly opposed to trading Bridges despite reportedly receiving strong offers ever since they acquired him last February, and I understand that stance. His skill set is a coveted one and he’s proven he can play big minutes on a championship contender, having been a full-time starter for the Suns team that got within two wins of a title in 2021. You don’t want to trade that sort of player. Plus, as we noted earlier, making next year’s roster even worse wouldn’t benefit the Nets from a draft perspective as long as they don’t control their picks.

But what if they did control their picks? The Rockets, who have prioritized two-way players since Ime Udoka‘s arrival last spring, reportedly covet Bridges and were said to be prepared to put a strong offer on the table for him at February’s trade deadline.

Could it be in the Nets’ best interest, long-term, to consider a Bridges deal with Houston that would return their own 2026 pick and eliminate those ’25 and ’27 swap rights? Even if this year’s No. 3 pick isn’t included in the package (it could be), regaining control of those future picks would put Brooklyn in position to properly rebuild with valuable lottery picks in the next year or two. They could take the rebuild a step further by also entertaining trade offers for wings Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson, both of whom would hold real appeal for playoff teams.

There’s no simple answer here for the Nets. While negotiating with the Rockets makes some sense on the surface, Houston would presumably recognize that Brooklyn’s own first-round picks are more valuable to the Nets than another team’s first-rounders would be, which would give the Rockets added leverage in any trade talks. And is Marks’ job security strong enough – after he was given the chance to hire his fourth head coach this spring – that he’d be willing to take another step backward by hitting the reset button again? I’m skeptical, which is why I consider Bridges more likely than not to open the 2024/25 season as a Net.

The decisions the Nets make on the trade market could have a huge impact on the franchise, but the front office has the option of simply taking a wait-and-see approach on that front. That’s not the case in free agency, where starting center Nic Claxton will become an unrestricted free agent this summer, giving him the ability to leave Brooklyn without the team getting any compensation.

The Nets will do all they can to avoid that happening, which might mean going up to $25MM per year – or even a little higher – to retain the young big man, who has emerged as a reliable rim protector and rebounder up front and still might have his best years ahead of him.

Fernandez and Marks didn’t do themselves any favors in their upcoming negotiations with the 25-year-old by declaring last month that they believe he’s a future Defensive Player of the Year, but he would’ve been in line for a major payday anyway. For what it’s worth, Jarrett Allen signed a five-year, $100MM free agent contract back in 2021 when his résumé wasn’t all that dissimilar to Claxton’s and a $20MM salary represented about 17.8% of the cap. Three years later, 17.8% of the projected 2024/25 cap would be almost exactly $25MM.

The Nets will also have contract decisions to make on Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe, though there’s less urgency in those cases — both Thomas and Sharpe are extension-eligible beginning this July, but would be on track for restricted free agency in 2025 if no deal is reached before the ’24/25 regular season begins.

As long as Brooklyn is able to re-sign Claxton, I wouldn’t count on a new deal for Sharpe this offseason. Big man Noah Clowney flashed real promise toward the end of his rookie season and if he continues to improve, he could push Sharpe for the role of Claxton’s primary backup next season. The Nets may want to see more from both players before deciding in 2025 whether to invest long-term in Sharpe.

Thomas is a trickier case. He’s a genuinely gifted scorer, having racked up 22.5 points per game in his third NBA season, but he doesn’t do much else on offense and has been a subpar defender. His ability to put the ball in the basket is valuable, but Brooklyn will likely be reluctant to break the bank on a player whose game outside of that one skill is so limited. It wouldn’t surprise me if the two sides have a hard time bridging the gap between the contract the Nets are comfortable offering and the one Thomas will seek.

It’s also worth noting that if the Nets simply keep Simmons’ expiring contract on their books for the 2024/25 season and don’t add any long-term money to their cap besides Claxton, they’ll be well-positioned to create real financial flexibility a year from now, when Simmons’ $40MM+ and Dennis Schröder‘s $13MM contract end. Locking up Thomas early would cut into that room, assuming his next deal starts above his projected 2025 cap hold of $12.1MM. That’s another argument in favor of holding off on a new deal for the 22-year-old until next year.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jalen Wilson ($1,816,857)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
  • Jaylen Martin (two-way)
  • Total: $1,816,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mikal Bridges (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Day’Ron Sharpe (rookie scale)
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)
  • Cameron Thomas (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Nets project to be over the cap but below the tax line.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $20,357,143
  • Trade exception: $11,928,571
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $9,500,000
  • Trade exception: $6,802,950
    • Expires on July 8.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Base Year Compensation

May 25th, 2024 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

The term “base year compensation” no longer shows up in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement and hasn’t since 2011. A relic of past agreements, the base year compensation rule was intended to prevent teams from signing free agents to new contracts that were specifically intended to facilitate salary-matching in trades.

While the base year compensation rules have, for the most part, been adjusted and/or removed from the CBA, there’s still one situation where they apply. Teams have to take them into account when completing sign-and-trade deals.

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets all of the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

  • He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
  • His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
  • He receives a raise greater than 20%.
  • His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is simply his new full salary.

Here are a couple specific examples to help make things a little clearer:

Let’s say the Knicks want to sign-and-trade OG Anunoby this offseason. There’s no indication they do, but the likely salary gap between his current contract and his next one make him a good example of a base year compensation player. Anunoby is a Bird free agent, his new salary will be well above the minimum, and New York projects to be an over-the-cap team. Having made $18,642,857 in 2023/24, Anunoby figures to receive a raise significantly higher than 20% — his next deal could easily start above $30MM. So he meets the BYC criteria.

In a scenario where he signs a deal with a $38MM starting salary as part of a sign-and-trade, Anunoby’s salary for matching purposes from the Knicks’ perspective would be $19MM, which is 50% of his new salary (that amount is greater than his previous salary). From his new team’s perspective, Anunoby’s incoming figure would be his actual salary, $38MM.

On the other hand, if Anunoby were to get a starting salary worth $35MM from a new team, his outgoing salary for matching purposes would be $18,642,857, the amount he made in 2023/24, because that figure would be higher than 50% of his new salary ($17.5MM).

Often, a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade doesn’t have the cap room to sign the player outright, or else there would be little incentive to negotiate a sign-and-trade. That means salary-matching is required, which can be complicated by base year compensation rules.

In the first Anunoby scenario outlined above, the Knicks wouldn’t be able to take back more than $26.5MM in salary in exchange for the forward due to the league’s matching rules. That number would dip to $19MM if New York’s team salary is above the tax apron. However, in order to take on $38MM in incoming salary, New York’s hypothetical trade partner – assuming they’re over the cap – would have to send out at least $30.2MM in order to account for those salary-matching rules themselves.

The gap between the salary-matching figures from the two teams’ perspectives would complicate sign-and-trade talks, requiring the two clubs to include additional pieces or get a third team involved to make the numbers work.

There were a few examples last summer of teams navigating base year compensation rules to complete sign-and-trade deals. For instance, when the Celtics signed-and-traded Grant Williams to the Mavericks, he met the BYC criteria when he received a raise far above 20%, getting $12,405,000 in the first year of his new contract.

That meant Dallas had to match his incoming $12.4MM salary (and did so sending out Reggie Bullock‘s $11MM+ salary to San Antonio in the three-team deal), but for Boston’s purposes, Williams’ outgoing cap figure was just $6,202,500, half of his new salary. The Celtics didn’t take back any players in the three-team swap, but created a trade exception worth that amount.

The Heat took a similar path when they signed-and-traded Max Strus to the Cavaliers. Strus’ first-year salary on his new deal with Cleveland was $14,487,684, which was the amount the Cavs had to account for when they salary-matched, but it only counted as $7,243,842 in outgoing salary for the Heat, who created a trade exception worth that amount.

In order to legally acquire Strus, the Cavs sent out Cedi Osman ($6,718,842) and Lamar Stevens (whose deal featured a $400,000 partial guarantee). They were permitted to take back up to 200% of that outgoing salary, plus an extra $250K. It’s no coincidence that if you take those two cap figures ($7,118,842), double them ($14,237,684) and add that $250K cushion, the end result is $14,487,684, Strus’ exact salary.

The base year compensation concept doesn’t surface all that often, due to the specific criteria that must be met. However, it looms large over sign-and-trade attempts involving free agents who receive significant raises, reducing the likelihood of teams finding a deal that can be legally completed.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Previous versions of this post were published in 2019, 2022, and 2023.

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