Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Jaylen Brown-Kevin Durant

July 26th, 2022 at 9:14pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Celtics don’t have Kevin Durant on their roster. They’re already the favorite to win the NBA title next season, according to the Las Vegas bookmakers.

So should Boston trade Jaylen Brown and other players and assets for KD and become the prohibitive favorite for the championship?

Brown is the best player that any potential suitor is reportedly willing to give up to the Nets to make an all-out bid for glory. Brown, who is still under contract for multiple seasons, averaged 23.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG and 3.5 APG last season and, at 25, is just entering his prime.

The Celtics seemingly addressed their biggest need this summer with the acquisition of Pacers point guard Malcolm Brogdon. Boston didn’t have to surrender any significant rotation players in the process. The team also improved its forward depth by adding veteran Danilo Gallinari.

Let’s look at the flip side. If Jayson Tatum and Brown seem like an imposing duo, just imagine what Tatum and Durant could do alongside each other once they work out chemistry issues. KD may be 34 and moody but he’s as good as ever — he averaged just a shade under 30 PPG and a career-best 6.4 APG last season.

He’s got plenty left in the tank and the four-year contract extension he signed erases any possibility of him leaving after a year or two as a free agent, though there’s always the concern that he could request another trade.

That brings us to our question of the day: Should the Celtics give up Jaylen Brown and other significant players and assets to acquire Kevin Durant? Or should they keep Brown and take their chances at a championship run with the group they already have?

Please take to the comments section to address this topic. We look forward to your input.

Hoops Rumors’ Trade Breakdown Series

July 26th, 2022 at 9:22am CST by Hoops Rumors

All of the installments in Hoops Rumors’ Trade Breakdown series can be found below. As opposed to giving out grades on the NBA’s biggest trades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves they did.

This page can be found anytime in the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site, or in the “Features” menu on our mobile site.

2023 offseason:

2022/23 season:

2022 offseason:

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Trade Breakdown: Kevin Huerter To Kings

July 26th, 2022 at 7:59am CST by Rory Maher

This is the seventh installment in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Hawks and Kings…

The day after free agency began, the Hawks agreed to send Kevin Huerter to the Kings in exchange for Justin Holiday, Maurice Harkless, and the Kings’ 2024 first-round pick (top-14 protected). If the pick doesn’t convey immediately, it would be top-12 protected in 2025 and top-10 protected in 2026. If it still hasn’t changed hands by that point, the Hawks would instead receive two second-rounders.

The Kings’ perspective:

After dealing Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana at the trade deadline for two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis, the Kings signaled that they were building around a couple of dynamic play-makers (the other being De’Aaron Fox), each of whom has a clear hole in his offensive repertoire: three-point shooting. The two lefties have almost identical career percentages from behind the arc, with Fox at 32.0% and Sabonis at 31.9%.

Modern NBA offenses thrive with proper spacing, so surrounding the duo with shooters was paramount. Sacramento was just 25^th in the league in three-point makes, 21^st in three-point attempts, and 24^th in three-point percentage last season (34.4%).

Enter Huerter, who averaged 12.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 2.7 APG in 74 games in 2021/22 (60 starts, 29.6 MPG). A look into his shooting numbers reveals that Huerter was an above-average marksman from all over the court, with a 57% true shooting percentage (58^th percentile), 62% at the rim (57^th percentile), 48% from mid-range (88%), 38.9% from three-point range (82^nd percentile), and 80.8% from the line (64^th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

Huerter’s ’21/22 counting stats are quite similar to his career marks of 11.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 3.2 APG in 274 games (216 starts, 29.6 MPG), so consistent year-to-year output has been a strong selling point for the shooting guard. He has shot between 38.0% and 38.9% from deep in three of his four seasons, with a career mark of 37.9%. He is particularly lethal from the corners, with a career mark of 43.1%, including 44.9% last season.

The 6’7″ Huerter fits in nicely with the timelines of Fox (24) and Sabonis (26), as he turns 24 next month (Davion Mitchell turns 24 in September, Malik Monk is also 24, and first-rounder Keegan Murray is 21). He’s also under contract for four more years, so he could become a fixture for the club for multiple seasons.

Although he is mostly known for his shooting prowess, Huerter is a solid secondary play-maker too, with a career assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.38-to-1. He’s a very capable passer who displays above-average vision for a two guard. That should come in handy for the Kings, who were just 22^nd in the league in assists last season.

Huerter has proven to a be a capable low-end starter in the NBA, and I mean that as a compliment. Being among the 150 or so best players in the best league in the world is no easy task, and Huerter is in that group. Even he winds up coming off the bench for the Kings, he has still shown he should be considered in that tier and he’d be one of the league’s best reserves.

Huerter has two primary weaknesses. For one, he’s sometimes too passive on offense and avoids contact, which is why he has attempted fewer than one free throw per game in his career in nearly 30 minutes per contest, a very poor rate. That, in turn, is why his true shooting percentage has only been above league average once in his career (last season), despite the fact that he’s a strong shooter.

The second weakness is that he’s a slightly below-average defender. He’s just an okay rebounder, and he’s skinny and can be pushed around even though he’s tall for his position. Huerter isn’t a liability by any means, like some other shooting specialists are, but he’s not a positive either.

It’s the less glamorous end of the court where I don’t love the deal for the Kings, who ranked just 27^th in the league in defensive rating last season. In fairness to them, they needed help in basically every area, and Huerter is certainly a better player than either Holiday or Harkless, but not on defense.

New head coach Mike Brown has built his career on being a strong defensive tactician, but he can only do so much with the personnel of the roster. That will continue to be an issue next season for Sacramento, as Fox and Sabonis aren’t exactly defensive stoppers, nor is Monk, whom the team acquired in free agency to bolster its shooting.

Holiday struggled in his brief stint with the Kings, connecting on just 34.8% of his field goal attempts in 25 games (he was also part of the Sabonis trade), and Harkless was completely out of the rotation by the end of the season. Both players are significantly older than Huerter (Holiday is 33 and Harkless is 29), and neither was in Sacramento’s long-term plans, so moving them was no big loss even though both have had long careers for good reasons.

The Hawks’ Perspective:

Let’s get this out of the way first: Atlanta didn’t necessarily want to trade Huerter. Hawks fans will fondly remember his performance in Game 7 of the team’s second-round playoff victory over the Sixers in 2021, when Huerter put up 27 points, seven rebounds and three assists on 10-of-18 shooting, helping Atlanta reach the Eastern Conference Finals for just the second time in the past 50 years.

Moving Huerter was both a short- and long-term financial decision. The four-year, $65MM rookie scale extension he signed just before ’21/22 began kicks in next season, and trading for Dejounte Murray pushed the team into luxury tax territory.

The Hawks already have long-term salaries committed to Trae Young, John Collins and Clint Capela; Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic are on the books for two more seasons; and De’Andre Hunter is eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer. The roster has become expensive, and after acquiring an All-Star guard in Murray, one of Huerter or Bogdanovic became expendable, through no fault of their own.

Bogdanovic is a better overall player than Huerter and more accustomed to coming off the bench, both positives for Atlanta. However, he’s coming off knee surgery, is older (he turns 30 next month), and makes more money the next two seasons than Huerter, so the Hawks might not have gotten the type of trade package they’d want for him.

Holiday and Harkless, both of whom are on expiring contracts, will make a combined $10.86MM in ‘22/23, saving the Hawks $3.64MM after moving Huerter’s $14.5MM salary. Keep in mind that by acquiring two players for one, the Hawks also don’t have to fill a second roster spot — even a minimum-salary deal carries a $1,836,090 cap hit, so the actual savings in the deal are closer to $5.48MM when taking that into account.

Of the two newly-acquired veterans, I expect Holiday to provide more on-court value and receive more playing time – he’s a much better outside shooter than Harkless (36.5% career from three on much higher volume vs. 32.0%), and I’m sure the Hawks would like to give 2021 first-rounder Jalen Johnson more NBA playing time at the backup power forward spot next season.

Both Holiday and Harkless are well-traveled veterans and have defense-first reputations. Holiday, in particular, provided solid value during his run with the Pacers from 2019-21. His defense wasn’t as sharp last season and his shooting can be inconsistent, but he’s definitely a bounce-back candidate with all the open looks he’ll get in his second stint in Atlanta.

Still, while the duo shouldn’t be discounted, the main appeal for the Hawks in their trade with Sacramento was moving off Huerter’s long-term salary and acquiring the 2024 first-round pick.

There’s no guarantee that pick will convey in two years, of course – the Kings have missed the playoffs for an NBA-record 16 consecutive seasons, so the fact that it’s lottery-protected might not bode well for Atlanta. However, Sacramento’s roster does look a little better on paper entering next season, especially on offense, and the club will have one more year to continue making upgrades before the pick can convey.

If it does convey in 2024, both teams would be happy – the Hawks would pick up another first-rounder, recouping some draft equity after dealing three first-round picks (two unprotected) and a pick swap to San Antonio for Murray, while the Kings would have finally broken their postseason drought.

If it doesn’t convey in 2024, there’s still a decent chance the Hawks could get the pick in either 2025 (top-12 protected) or 2026 (top-10 protected). That might actually be the preferred scenario for them, as the first unprotected pick they traded to the Spurs is for 2025, and San Antonio has swap rights in 2026.

The West is stacked, so a postseason berth certainly isn’t a given, but the Kings do have some interesting pieces, most of whom are young. There are realistic scenarios in which they get better with time and either make the play-in tournament or the playoffs outright. Murray could be the wild card, because if he’s as NBA-ready as he seems, he could be a game-changer.

Overall, the Huerter trade was an understandable deal for both sides. The Kings got a solid young starter who is under contract for four more years and addresses some weaknesses of the roster, and they protected the first-rounder they dealt away so it hopefully doesn’t come back to bite them.

The Hawks cleared long-term money and dodged the tax, got a buy-low candidate in Holiday, a veteran presence in Harkless, and recouped a bit of draft equity after giving up a substantial amount for Murray.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoffs

July 25th, 2022 at 10:07pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The play-in tournament, which has been adopted as an every-season fixture, means that only 10 of 30 NBA teams won’t get a taste of the postseason from year to year.

Last season, the Lakers, Kings, Trail Blazers, Thunder and Rockets were the five Western Conference teams who failed to qualify.

All of those teams, via some combination of the draft, free agency and trades, have made numerous roster moves this summer in an effort to improve their stock.

Let’s take a quick look at each of those clubs’ major moves, focusing on acquisitions beyond re-signing their own free agents:

Lakers – The reshaping of the roster feels incomplete until we see if/when they’ll deal Russell Westbrook and whether Kyrie Irving winds up there. They have made some interesting free agent moves, despite limited resources, most notably adding former Spurs wing Lonnie Walker and ex-Wizards center Thomas Bryant.
Kings – On the surface, the Kings have made some significant upgrades. Their lottery pick, Keegan Murray, was named the MVP of the Vegas Summer League. He could jump right into the starting lineup. They improved their 3-point shooting significantly with the additions of Malik Monk (free agency) and Kevin Huerter (trade).
Trail Blazers – The much-rumored Jerami Grant trade came to fruition this summer, giving the Blazers a much-needed frontcourt boost. They added a backcourt rotation piece in Gary Payton II via free agency. Starters Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic signed new deals and Portland rolled the dice on wing Shaedon Sharpe with its lottery pick. Sharpe didn’t play college ball last year but has star potential.
Thunder – The stockpile of extra draft picks they have accumulated in recent years, plus some draft-night maneuvers, paid off in the form of three lottery selections this season. They chose Chet Holmgren, one of the most unique players to enter the league, with the No. 2 pick. Wings Ousmane Dieng and Jalen Williams were added with the No. 11 and No. 12 picks, respectively.
Rockets – Jabari Smith was expected to be the No. 1 pick in the draft but slid to Houston’s choice at No. 3. He could be a franchise player. Christian Wood was dealt to the Mavericks and the Rockets received a number of veteran reserves in return along with a late-first round pick. Houston used that on guard TyTy Washington. In between, the Rockets held the No. 17 pick and selected LSU’s Tari Eason, who impressed in Summer League action.

That brings us to our question of the day: Which Western Conference team that failed to reach the postseason this spring – Lakers, Kings, Trail Blazers, Thunder or Rockets – has the best chance to qualify for next year’s playoffs?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Best Remaining Free Agents

July 23rd, 2022 at 11:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Most of the players on the Hoops Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agents list came to terms on new contracts fairly quickly. But more than three weeks after the start of free agency, there are a handful who still remain on the market.

Setting aside Hornets forward Miles Bridges, whose domestic abuse case has clouded his future in the league, and center Montrezl Harrell, who is dealing with legal issues of his own, only three players from our top 50 remain unsigned: Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton, Rockets guard Dennis Schröder and Bucks forward Jordan Nwora.

Sexton is a restricted free agent who’s trying to bounce back from a torn meniscus that limited him to 11 games last season. Cleveland is reportedly focused on staying under the luxury tax line and has about $15MM to work with. Sexton is believed to want “starting guard money” with a first-year salary in excess of $20MM. Only the Spurs and Pacers have enough cap room left to offer him that much without a sign-and-trade.

Schröder played 15 games for Houston after being acquired from the Celtics at the deadline. Although the unrestricted free agent has a good relationship with the team, he’s not expected to return as Houston is focused on providing minutes for its young players.

Nwora, who is restricted, is in limbo as he waits for an offer that Milwaukee will have the option to match. General manager Jon Horst said the team is working with Nwora’s agent to find an acceptable solution for all parties. However, there’s no rush to get anything done with training camp still two months away.

Apart from the top 50, there are several intriguing veterans who remain on the open market, including Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin and Dwight Howard.

We want to get your opinion. Which remaining free agents do you think can provide the most help and where do you think they should end up? Please leave your answer in the space below.

Trade Breakdown: Dejounte Murray To Hawks

July 22nd, 2022 at 9:50am CST by Rory Maher

This is the sixth installment in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal that saw an All-Star head from the Spurs to the Hawks…

The day before free agency opened, the Spurs agreed to send Dejounte Murray and Jock Landale (later dealt to the Suns for cash considerations) to the Hawks in exchange for the Hornets’ 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected), the Hawks’ 2025 first-round pick (unprotected), the Hawks’ 2027 first-round pick (unprotected), the right to swap first-round picks with the Hawks in 2026, and Danilo Gallinari.

The Spurs’ perspective:

Why would the Spurs part with a first-time All-Star who was runner-up for the Most Improved Player Award?

After making the playoffs for an NBA-record 22 consecutive years from 1998-2019, winning five championships in the process, the Spurs have been stuck in mediocrity for the past three seasons, finishing with records of 32-39 in 2019/20 and 33-39 in ‘20/21.

Last season, with Murray as the team’s best player, the Spurs finished with a 34-48 record and the 10th seed in the West — below average, but not bad enough to have a real puncher’s chance at the top pick. The team went just 4-10 in games Murray missed.

Sometimes bottoming out is the best way to improve a franchise in the long run, as unpalatable as it might be for owners, front offices, coaches, players and fans alike. The 2023 draft class features French phenom Victor Wembanyama, a player whom some talent evaluators consider the best prospect the NBA has seen since LeBron James turned pro in 2003. You can connect the dots.

Murray was a developmental success story for the Spurs. He gradually transformed from a raw prospect, selected 29th overall in the 2016 draft, into an All-Star.

The Spurs received a substantial return for him. Unprotected first-round picks are one of the most valuable commodities in the NBA, and San Antonio gained two of them with the possibility of a third if the Spurs are better than the Hawks in 2025/26.

San Antonio also gained another first-rounder with a reasonable chance of conveying at some point in the next three years – the Hornets’ 2023 pick will be lottery-protected in 2024 and 2025 if it doesn’t convey next year, then would turn into two second-round picks if it hasn’t conveyed by that point.

Gallinari, who received a partial guarantee of $13MM on his $21MM+ expiring contract, was only included in the deal for salary-matching purposes and has already been waived and subsequently signed with Boston as a free agent.

For San Antonio, the move was less about a lack of faith in Murray’s abilities and more about having a chance at the top pick in 2023 and extracting maximum value for a player coming off a career season. In ‘21/22, he averaged 21.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 9.2 APG on .462/.327/.794 shooting in 68 games (34.8 MPG).

Keep in mind that Murray enters free agency in 2024, the season before the first unprotected pick from Atlanta conveys to San Antonio. Considering Murray just had the best season of his six-year career, it’s possible he could continue to get better, but if the Spurs waited until next summer, he’d be on an expiring contract and would likely be seeking a maximum-salary deal in free agency, diminishing his trade value. If things don’t work out between Murray and the Hawks, or they simply don’t want to pay him a max deal in two years, the Spurs are the clear beneficiary.

Are the Hawks appreciably better by making the trade entering ‘22/23? Yes. Can Murray push them over the top in an increasingly competitive East? I’m a little skeptical.

The Celtics, Heat, Bucks, Sixers, Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Cavaliers all finished with better records than the Hawks (43-39) last season, and the Hornets had the same record before getting blown out by Atlanta in the play-in tournament (the Hawks advanced as the eighth seed after beating Cleveland in the second play-in game).

So maybe, optimistically, the Hawks finish as a top-four or top-five seed in the East. They still have to get past the Bucks, Sixers, Celtics and Heat, who eliminated Atlanta in a five-game first-round series last season. There are roadblocks.

The Nets have a formidable roster if it remains intact. The Raptors will be better with another year of experience. The Bulls and Cavaliers could be too.

There’s a reason the Spurs pushed for the unprotected picks to be years down the line, when the Hawks are much less certain to be a perennial playoff team. Even if those selections are “just” lottery picks and not highly-coveted top-five picks, they would still have considerable value. They’d have even more trade value leading up to those drafts if Atlanta doesn’t look like a good team in the future.

It’s worth noting that Murray and Atlanta’s star point guard, Trae Young, were both very ball-dominant players last season, and Young hasn’t shown much inclination to play an off-ball role. Young has been extremely effective as an offensive engine, with the Hawks ranking eighth and second in offensive rating during the last two seasons.

If Young remains the primary ball-handler, that could reduce Murray’s effectiveness. His breakout season came in the aftermath of DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio’s previous leading scorer and primary play-maker, heading to Chicago in a sign-and-trade last summer.

For as stellar as he was last season, and make no mistake, he was very good, Murray’s 53.3% true shooting percentage was below league average, his career true shooting percentage (51.5%) is even worse, and he holds just a 33% mark from beyond the arc. His career percentage on corner threes is 32.3%, including just 28% last season.

None of those percentages scream “I can spot-up when I have to and make shots consistently.”

Atlanta’s roster could also get very expensive in the future, depending on how much money the team invests to keep the players it has drafted in recent years. De’Andre Hunter is eligible for a rookie scale extension that would kick in starting in ‘23/24, and Onyeka Okongwu will be eligible for an extension next summer that would begin the following year.

Those extensions would be in addition to the major contracts already on the books for Young, John Collins and Clint Capela, all of whom are under contract through at least ‘24/25. If Murray re-signs with the Hawks on a max deal as a free agent, those four players alone could cost $140+MM, depending on how much the cap goes up. The Spurs are betting the Hawks will be hesitant to pay such a hefty price tag if they don’t find more postseason success in the next couple years.

The Hawks’ perspective:

How many times do you have an opportunity to trade for an All-Star who is just entering his prime? Not only that, but Murray, who turns 26 years old in September, has team-friendly salaries of $16.57MM in ‘22/23 and $17.71MM in ‘23/24.

Atlanta didn’t give up any win-now pieces from next season’s team. Prior to the trade, Gallinari’s partial guarantee was only $5MM, so there was no chance the Hawks were going to guarantee the remainder of that sizable deal, given the forward’s declining play and advancing age. Moving off that contract was a bonus.

It was clear the Hawks needed to make moves after an uneven regular season and a disappointing playoff exit which saw the Heat stymie Young, forcing him into more turnovers per game (6.2) than assists (6.0) and drastically reducing his scoring (15.4 PPG on .319/.184/.788 shooting vs. 28.4 PPG on .460/.382/.904 shooting in the regular season).

To aid their star, the Hawks acquired Murray, a player who has consistently improved various aspects of his game every season. General manager Landry Fields recently said they’re betting on the “character makeup” of the two All-Stars and their will to win together.

I’m very curious to see how Young and Murray complement each other on offense, since it will take significant adjustments from both players to get the best out of each other’s talents.

If Young can become much more active away from the ball – coming off screens, setting back-screens, drawing attention away from teammates — that would allow Murray to handle the ball more, and he had a lot of success as a lead ball-handler last season, ranking fourth in the league in assists (9.2), one spot below Young (9.7). Murray also posted a much better assist-to-turnover ratio than his new teammate (3.48-to-1 vs. 2.43-to-1).

I suspect that head coach Nate McMillan will experiment with staggering their minutes somewhat to give Murray more opportunities to run the show with the second unit.

Murray is a pretty significant defensive upgrade over Kevin Huerter, who was dealt to Sacramento in a trade that we’ll cover next week. Murray led the league in deflections (4.0) and steals (2.0) per game last season and is an effective point-of-attack defender.

Having said that, I do think his All-Defensive nod back in ’17/18, prior to his torn ACL, has given him a reputation that has exceeded his actual play on that end of the court the past few seasons. For example, the Spurs’ defensive rating was better when he didn’t play last season (113.4 on vs. 111.9 off), but he was still an overall net positive (+2.3) because they were much better offensively when he was on the court (114.4 on vs. 110.6 off).

Young, of course, is one of the league’s worst defenders, so it’s not as though placing him on a shooting guard instead of having him up top makes things any easier for the Hawks. They will likely still try to hide him on the opposing team’s worst offensive player.

Murray has been an excellent rebounder throughout his career, and he pulled down a career-high 8.3 boards per game last season. Atlanta ranked just 20th in the league in rebounding last season, so that’s another area in which he will definitely help the team.

The Hawks are also betting on a return to health for three players who were all hampered with various injuries last season: Collins (foot/finger), Capela (Achilles soreness/knee) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee). All three were key contributors during the team’s surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, but none were healthy in the 2022 postseason.

The Hawks have youth on their side. Of the projected starting lineup of Young, Murray, Hunter, Collins and Capela, the veteran center is the eldest at 28 years old.

Okongwu, who could eventually replace Capela, won’t turn 22 until December. Atlanta’s 2021 first-rounder, Jalen Johnson, turns 21 in December. 2022 First-rounder AJ Griffin won’t turn 19 until August.

The Hawks control their own first-rounders in 2023 and 2024, have an additional lottery-protected pick from the Kings in 2024 (via the Huerter deal), and control five second-rounders over the next two drafts.

The reason I mention the youth and draft equity is because it’s not as though trading for Murray was a death knell for the future. There are still multiple pathways for the Hawks to pivot if things go south, and if they get better, they have some additional assets to continue to improve, if needed.

If Young and Murray form a dynamic backcourt and the roster continues to develop, and if the aforementioned trio return to health and form, Atlanta has the talent to potentially make another deep playoff run, but it won’t be easy.

Even if all those things go right, questions remain. The team’s defense, which ranked 26th last season and hasn’t been better than 21st over the past five years, has to get much better. Young will have to guard someone. Murray will have to make teams pay for leaving him open from behind the arc on offense.

Can Hunter be the player who can defend the big wing scorers like Kevin Durant (if he remains in the East), Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jimmy Butler, and Khris Middleton? Who is guarding the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid? For as good as Capela was two years ago, and he was excellent, he could not stop Brook Lopez down low when Antetokounmpo was injured in the Conference Finals, so he is definitely not stopping either of those two superstars. And that’s only in the East.

The Hawks know all that. They know the fit isn’t seamless, and asking their new backcourt to make major adjustments when they’ve already had individual success isn’t ideal. But they’re betting that Young and Murray can make those adjustments and that the team will become a sustainable winner in part due to their efforts.

The Hawks gave themselves a timeline by trading away first-round picks with no protections. If everything clicks, they have a chance to be very good. But the clock is ticking, and the Spurs are waiting.

Trade Breakdown: Royce O’Neale To Nets

July 21st, 2022 at 8:54am CST by Rory Maher

This is the fifth installment in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal just before free agency opened between the Nets and Jazz…

In a deal that got lost in the shuffle amid other major NBA news — namely Kevin Durant requesting a trade out of Brooklyn — the Nets acquired Royce O’Neale from the Jazz in exchange for either the Nets‘, Rockets’, or Sixers’ 2023 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable).

The Nets used an $11.3MM traded player exception to take on O’Neale’s salary without having to send any back in return.

The Nets’ perspective:

Why would the Nets give up a first-round pick for a player who has averaged fewer than seven points per game (6.9 PPG) since he became a full-time starter three years ago?

While it’s true that O’Neale isn’t much of a scorer, he brings plenty of other qualities to the table that make him an attractive role player for a team trying to win right now. He scores very efficiently when he does take shots (which is admittedly pretty rare), posting a .446/.384/.803 slash line over the last three seasons, good for a 59.6% true shooting percentage.

He generally makes good decisions when he has the ball, posting a 2.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio over the last three years, well above-average for a forward, and he’s always willing to make the extra pass for a better look. O’Neale also finds creative ways to be effective on offense, like setting unexpected, bone-crushing back-screens and then slipping to the rim for layups.

O’Neale is a solid rebounder, pulling down 5.7 boards in 30.6 MPG over that same time period. He also has an uncanny knack for being in the right place at the right time, which is something that doesn’t show up in statistics but is noticeable if you’re specifically tracking a player’s movements.

Much of O’Neale’s value for the Jazz was tied into his willingness to do the dirty work. He was frequently tasked with defending the opposing team’s best non-center, and while his results in that area were mixed, it’s hard not to admire his determination.

O’Neale has been an extremely durable player since 2018, only missing seven total games over the last four seasons, which must have been an attractive attribute for the Nets, given all the games their key players have missed the past few years. He’s also on a reasonable contract, earning $9.2MM in 2022/23, with his $9.5MM salary for ’23/24 partially guaranteed for $2.5MM.

The 29-year-old’s NBA success is a testament to his self-awareness – O’Neale knows exactly who he is as a player, and he doesn’t try to do things he’s not capable of, as he told Brian Lewis of The New York Post a couple of weeks ago.

“(I’ll help) any way I can,” he said. “Just try to be the guy I’ve been doing, not be anyone I’m not. But I know what got me here and what’s going to keep me being here, so just learning any way I can and doing what I got to do offensively and defensively.”

Having said all that, out of all the trades made this offseason, I found this to be the most perplexing one, at least from Brooklyn’s side of things.

Watching O’Neale get repeatedly roasted by Jalen Brunson in Utah’s first-round loss to Dallas made it clear that his defense has fallen off a bit. It’s not like O’Neale was ever a lockdown defender to begin with, either. He’s an undersized forward at 6’4″ and isn’t the NBA’s quickest player, but he uses his length (6’9″ wingspan) and strength (226 pounds) well to do his best to deter opponents.

What he lacked in physical attributes O’Neale always made up for with determined effort and toughness. He rarely had much help on the perimeter, as Utah’s defenses were always anchored by the interior presence of three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.

What makes this deal especially confusing to me is the Nets already had a better all-around player in Bruce Brown and reportedly didn’t even make him an offer in free agency – he joined the Nuggets via the taxpayer mid-level exception. O’Neale, on the other hand, is older than Brown and will make more money than him over the next couple of seasons, although Brown’s deal is fully guaranteed in ’23/24 and O’Neale’s isn’t.

While O’Neale is a much more proven shooter than Brown and has more experience playing the two forward spots, Brown is more athletic with a strong, stout build, so it’s not like he’d be a liability defending up a position or two – he did it a lot last season as is.

Maybe the Nets like O’Neale’s veteran presence and think he can help turn around the team’s culture, which general manager Sean Marks has said would be a point of emphasis going forward. They certainly must have been drawn to his playoff experience, even if the Jazz failed to advance past the second round during O’Neale’s tenure.

I still believe O’Neale is a solid player on a fair contract with bounce-back potential, and a likely late first-round pick in 2023 doesn’t do anything in the present for a team that’s trying to win the championship, so in that sense it’s an easily digestible win-now move. I’m just not sure that a player coming off a down season in the area that he’s built his reputation (defense) on was a worthwhile gamble with that asset – we’ll see how it plays out next season.

On the other hand, I did like the Nets’ free agency moves of taking fliers on T.J. Warren and Edmond Sumner, both of whom missed all of last season while recovering from injuries, but are reportedly fully healthy. I also like the collection of young players the Nets have assembled with their recent draft picks, and Marks and the front office have consistently found talent in the rough, so maybe O’Neale will be another one, even if the circumstances are a lot different.

The Jazz’s perspective:

Utah’s reasoning for making the move was a lot easier to understand.

Plain and simple, the Jazz had topped out. Last year’s club disappointed on many levels. Utah was still a good team, don’t get me wrong – making the playoffs every season is no easy task, no matter how some might try to downplay it.

But the writing was on the wall. Being in the luxury tax with no draft equity and no real young players to build around sans Donovan Mitchell (who is on a maximum-salary contract and has his share of flaws) made the Jazz’s roster construction untenable.

You can only run things back so many times before everyone realizes that your window has closed. Perhaps that happened in 2021, when the Jazz posted an NBA-best 52-20 record in the regular season, only fall to the Clippers in the second round of the playoffs after blowing a 2-0 series lead and after Kawhi Leonard tore his ACL in Game 4 of the series (they also blew a 22-point halftime lead in Game 6, the series clincher).

That deflating series loss had a detrimental impact on the Jazz in multiple ways that carried over into last season, when they imploded late in games by blowing several large leads in fourth quarters. They had one of the best net ratings in the league – third overall – despite their solid but unspectacular record of 49-33, and when they were rolling, they were really good. But there was never a sense that things would turn things around after a midseason slump that was unfortunately caused, at least in part, by COVID-19 absences.

Which leads us back to trading O’Neale for a 2023 first-rounder. Change was inevitable for the Jazz. O’Neale being dealt just happened to be the first domino to topple.

NBA teams are always looking for “3-and-D” players that don’t need the ball to be effective to supplement star players. O’Neale fits that mold when he’s playing well.

President Danny Ainge is a notoriously difficult negotiator, but Utah’s asking price for O’Neale was obviously any type of first-round pick, perhaps for 2023, perhaps not, and Brooklyn met that asking price. Gaining a decent draft asset for a player coming off a down season defensively is definitely a good return for the Jazz.

Thunder, Rockets Among Teams Facing Roster Crunch

July 20th, 2022 at 1:50pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re approximately three months away from the deadline for NBA teams to finalize their rosters for the 2022/23 regular season, so there’s no urgency for those clubs to get their 15-man squads in order anytime soon.

Still, there are already a small handful of teams that are carrying more than 15 players on guaranteed contracts for ’22/23. Sooner or later, those teams will have to trade or release one or more of those players in order to get down to the regular season limit.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

Here’s an early look at the teams that will have some decisions to make:

Teams with more than 15 guaranteed contracts:

Oklahoma City Thunder

17 guaranteed contracts
1 partially guaranteed contract

The Thunder will technically dip to 16 players on fully guaranteed contracts once JaMychal Green‘s reported buyout is completed, but that number will climb back to 17 once Mike Muscala officially re-signs with the team.

There are a number of directions Oklahoma City could go with its final roster spots, but at least three players (besides Green) will have to be traded or released. The best candidates appear to be Derrick Favors, Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon, Darius Bazley, and Vit Krejci (who has the lone partially guaranteed contract).

None of those five players is owed guaranteed money beyond this season — Favors, Jerome, and Bazley are on expiring contracts, while Maledon and Krejci have non-guaranteed salaries beyond 2022/23.

By reaching a buyout agreement with Green, the Thunder signaled they’re not necessarily prioritizing keeping bigger expiring deals around for potential trades later in the offseason or during the season, so Favors ($10.2MM), Bazley ($4.3MM), and Jerome ($4.2MM) certainly aren’t locks to make it to opening night.

Houston Rockets

18 guaranteed contracts

The Rockets’ roster surplus is largely a result of the four-for-one trade they made with Dallas for Christian Wood. Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss, and Boban Marjanovic came to Houston in that deal, but reports have suggested that at least two or three of those players probably won’t be on the team’s opening night roster.

Marjanovic is said to be the most likely of the four to remain in Houston. Trading or waiving the other three would get the Rockets down to the 15-man regular season limit.

The club could also explore other moves to pare down its roster count. Eric Gordon and Kenyon Martin Jr. are among the players who have frequently been mentioned as potential trade candidates.

Teams with more than 15 players on standard contracts:

Note: Exhibit 10 deals aren’t considered standard contracts for the purpose of this section.

Memphis Grizzlies

15 guaranteed contracts
1 partially guaranteed contract

Danny Green looks like the probable odd man out in Memphis. His $10MM salary is only partially guaranteed (for $6.96MM) and he’ll likely miss most or all of the 2022/23 season while he recovers from a torn ACL.

Still, I wouldn’t consider that a lock quite yet. Green could be a valuable piece in the postseason if he has recovered by then — and if his recovery does take longer than he anticipates, his $10MM expiring contract could still be a useful asset at the 2023 deadline. Perhaps the Grizzlies will find a small deal involving a player like Santi Aldama, Killian Tillie, or Xavier Tillman before the season begins in order to make room on the 15-man squad for Green.

Toronto Raptors

12 guaranteed contracts
4 partially guaranteed contracts
1 unsigned second-round pick

While second-round picks are often signed to two-way contracts or stashed overseas, that rarely happens for a player selected as high as Christian Koloko was (No. 33). Those players usually receive at least a couple guaranteed seasons, and I’d expect the Raptors to take that route with Koloko.

If they do, that would leave four players on partially guaranteed contracts – Justin Champagnie, Dalano Banton, Armoni Brooks, and D.J. Wilson – vying for the final two roster spots. If the Raptors want to keep more than one of those players, or if they’d like to promote two-way RFA David Johnson to the 15-man roster, Svi Mykhailiuk could be a release candidate, despite having a guaranteed minimum salary.

Philadelphia 76ers

12 guaranteed contracts (once James Harden re-signs)
2 partially guaranteed contracts
2 non-guaranteed contracts

The Sixers don’t have a major crunch, but after Harden re-signs, there will only be three roster spots available for four players without full guarantees.

One of those players is Trevelin Queen, who has a $330K partial guarantee and was just signed this offseason. Those factors will likely give him a leg up on a 15-man roster spot. Charles Bassey also has a small partial guarantee (about $75K), while Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed are on non-guaranteed contracts.

In order to keep all four players, the Sixers would have to make a trade or a cut to reduce their roster count. Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, and Shake Milton are among the players who have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason.

Cleveland Cavaliers

13 guaranteed contracts
2 non-guaranteed contracts
1 RFA

At this point in the offseason, restricted free agent guard Collin Sexton looks like a solid bet to end up back in Cleveland. If he returns to the Cavaliers, they’ll have 14 players on guaranteed contracts, plus Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens on non-guaranteed deals.

If the Cavs want to keep both Wade and Stevens, Dylan Windler could be the odd man out. He’s on an expiring contract and has struggled to find a place in the rotation while battling injuries in his first three NBA seasons.

Detroit Pistons

15 guaranteed contracts
1 signing to come

The Pistons have yet to formally sign Kevin Knox — they’re likely waiting to determine if and how they’ll use their cap room, since Knox’s reported two-year, $6MM deal could fit into their room exception if it has to.

Knox would be Detroit’s 16th player on a guaranteed contract, but the fix looks pretty simple. Kemba Walker‘s reported buyout agreement with the Pistons isn’t yet official. Once Walker is bought out and Knox signs, the team will be back at 15 guaranteed contracts.

Orlando Magic

15 guaranteed contracts
1 non-guaranteed contract

Barring a surprise, Devin Cannady – the only player without a guaranteed contract – will likely be the casualty of Orlando’s roster crunch.

How Teams Are Using 2022/23 Bi-Annual Exceptions

July 20th, 2022 at 10:00am CST by Luke Adams

The bi-annual exception is one of the tools available to NBA teams who are over the cap, giving those clubs the flexibility to offer free agents more than the minimum salary. In 2022/23, the bi-annual exception is worth $4,105,000, and can be used to offer a deal worth up to $8,415,250 over two years.

However, the bi-annual exception isn’t available to every team. Clubs that go below the cap in order to use cap room lose access to the exception. Additionally, using the BAE imposes a hard cap of $156,983,000 (the tax apron) on a team. So if a club has surpassed the tax apron – or wants to retain the flexibility to do so – it can’t use the bi-annual exception.

Finally, as its name suggests, the bi-annual exception can’t be used by a team in consecutive years. In 2021/22, two teams used the BAE — the Mavericks (Sterling Brown) and Bulls (Tristan Thompson). As such, the exception isn’t available to those clubs during the 2022/23 league year. They’ll be able to use it again next summer.

With all those factors in mind, here’s a breakdown of how teams are using – or not using – their respective bi-annual exceptions in 2022/23:

Available Bi-Annual Exceptions:

Unused:

Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Hornets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards

Although all of these teams technically have the ability to use their bi-annual exceptions at some point in 2022/23, it’s more realistic for some than others. For instance, the Hawks still have their full mid-level exception available and are already right around the luxury tax line, so there’s virtually no chance they’ll end up using the BAE this season.

Used:

Philadelphia 76ers
- Used: $4,105,000 (Danuel House)
- Available: $0
Miami Heat
- Used: $3,114,138 (Kevin Love)
- Available: $0

Typically, about three or four teams in a given league year use the bi-annual exception, but Philadelphia was the only team to do so during the 2022 offseason. The Sixers took advantage of the ability to use their BAE after James Harden agreed to take a pay cut that will allow the team to stay under the hard cap.

The Heat, meanwhile, used their BAE to sign Love in February, so they only had the prorated portion left on the exception, which began to decrease in value on January 10.

Unavailable Bi-Annual Exceptions:

Went under cap:

Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
New York Knicks
San Antonio Spurs

These four teams forfeited their right to the bi-annual exception when they went under the cap and used space this offseason.

Over (or near) tax apron:

Boston Celtics
Brooklyn Nets
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Milwaukee Bucks
Phoenix Suns

In theory, cost-cutting moves by these teams could put them in position to use their bi-annual exceptions. In actuality though, that possibility is remote, especially for teams like the Clippers, Warriors, and Nets, who are far over the tax apron.

Used last year:

Chicago Bulls
Dallas Mavericks

As noted in the intro, these are the two teams that used their bi-annual exceptions in 2021/22 and, as a result, won’t have them again until 2023/24.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Trade Breakdown: De’Anthony Melton To Sixers

July 20th, 2022 at 7:49am CST by Rory Maher

This is the fourth entry in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a draft-day swap between the Sixers and Grizzlies…

On the night of the 2022 draft, the Sixers traded the No. 23 pick (David Roddy) and Danny Green to the Grizzlies in exchange for De’Anthony Melton. Unfortunately, Green suffered a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee during Philadelphia’s season-ending Game 6 loss to Miami in the second-round of last season’s playoffs, so he’s likely to miss a significant part of the 2022/23 season, if not the entire year.

The Sixers’ perspective:

Why were the Sixers motivated to trade their first-round pick for a bench player?

For starters, there’s a lot of variability with first-round picks, especially as you get down into the 20s. The likelihood of the No. 23 pick becoming an immediate contributor on a team with championship aspirations is pretty slim.

As an example, look no further than Philadelphia’s last couple first-round selections, who showcase the inherent risk involved in trading a first-rounder, as well as that aforementioned variability.

In 2020, the Sixers picked Tyrese Maxey at No. 21 overall. He had a decent rookie season, appearing in 60 games (15.3 MPG) with averages of 8.0 PPG, 1.7 RPG and 2.0 APG on .462/.301/.871 shooting. You could see his speed and ability to get to his shots, and his free throw percentage was encouraging, but it wasn’t exactly predictable what would happen with him last season.

In year two, Maxey exploded onto the scene as an emerging star, appearing in 75 games (74 starts, 35.3 MPG) with averages of 17.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 4.3 APG on .485/.427/.866 shooting. Maxey went from a trade chip to the Sixers reportedly viewing him as basically untouchable in the span of months, finishing sixth in the Most Improved Player Award race (I personally had him second behind Desmond Bane and had no qualms with anyone who thought he should’ve won).

By contrast, the Sixers selected Jaden Springer with the No. 28 pick in 2021. Springer appeared in just two regular season games as a rookie last season, spending the majority of the season in the G League with Philadelphia’s affiliate, the Delaware Blue Coats (he also made five cameos in the postseason). In 20 regular season games with the Blue Coats, he averaged 14.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.7 SPG on .470/.241/.651 shooting.

Springer, one of the youngest players in his draft class, is still just 19 years old (he turns 20 in September), but he looked rough around the edges in Summer League action and doesn’t seem close to contributing at the NBA level anytime soon. This isn’t a personal knock against Springer, it’s just an example of the roll of the dice that comes with drafting any player.

Melton, on the other hand, is a more proven commodity, and he was reportedly coveted by teams around the league. Now entering his fifth season, Melton is still only 24 years old, so it’s not like he’s a finished product by any means, but he’s shown he can be a productive player at the NBA level.

A big part of what made Melton such a hot commodity on the trade market is his defense. Although he stands just 6’2”, Melton has a 6’8” wingspan and is one of the better guard defenders in the NBA. I’m not a big fan of using advanced stats for measuring defensive impact, but they almost universally love Melton on that end of the court.

A very good athlete who plays with physicality, lots of energy, and a knack for the ball, Melton gets plenty of deflections (2.8 per game), steals (1.4) and blocks (0.5) for a guard. In fact, he was one of the league leaders at his position in all of those categories on a per-minute basis (he averaged 22.7 MPG last season).

He’s also an outstanding rebounder (4.5 RPG) who likes to push the pace in transition. Those are hugely beneficial attributes for a Sixers team that ranked 29^th in rebounding and 25^th in pace last season.

Melton should be an excellent complement next to Maxey or James Harden, or even both. Harden tends to play better defensively against bigger players, so allowing Melton, who is a far superior defender than either of his new backcourt mates, to defend the opposing team’s best guard sounds good on paper.

He’s an immediate and major upgrade over both Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz defensively, and a better offensive player than Matisse Thybulle. Those were Philadelphia’s three primary backup guards at the end of last season.

Melton will earn $8.25MM next season and his $8MM salary in 2023/24 is partially guaranteed at $1.5MM, so he’s on a reasonable contract and is eligible for an extension this offseason, though Philadelphia might want to take a wait-and-see approach before making that decision.

There are a few other things worth noting about Melton’s acquisition. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey actually drafted Melton with Houston back in 2018 prior to attaching him to Ryan Anderson in a salary dump move, so Morey has been familiar with the guard’s game dating back to his lone college season with USC.

Melton was basically treated as a non-shooter during his first couple of NBA seasons, making just 29.4% of his three-pointers in that time, but he has improved drastically in that area over the past two seasons, shooting 38.8% from deep on much higher volume. Being able to space the floor around Joel Embiid is vital for Philadelphia’s offensive flow and spacing, so while Melton can run hot and cold, he should get plenty of open looks.

Finally, Melton is a combo guard, and because Harden, Embiid and Maxey control the ball so much, the fact that Melton will be an ancillary player instead of a primary ball-handler is an added benefit. That’s not to say he’s bad at playing the point, it just isn’t his main strength.

The Grizzlies’ perspective:

If Melton is such a solid young player, why were the Grizzlies willing to deal him? Why not just keep him?

Memphis is one of the few teams in the league that has a luxury of riches at multiple positions, and backcourt depth is perhaps the team’s greatest strength. Led by starters Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies had Tyus Jones, Melton, John Konchar and Ziaire Williams vying for minutes at guard (Williams also spent a lot of time at forward last season and could open the season there due to Jaren Jackson Jr.‘s injury and Kyle Anderson‘s departure to Minnesota in free agency).

Melton’s strengths weren’t necessarily redundant among that group of players — he was the best defender of the guards — but moving him clears additional minutes for his former teammates. Jones re-signed with Memphis as an unrestricted free agent on a two-year, $30MM deal, and the Grizzlies later gave Konchar an extension (Williams was a rookie last season and still has three years left on his first NBA contract).

Melton also saw his role reduced and his offensive production decline significantly in two consecutive postseasons, averaging just 5.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 1.4 APG on .333/.266/.667 shooting in 15 career playoff games (16.9 MPG). That may have contributed to Memphis’ decision to move him.

Acquiring first-round picks isn’t easy, but GM Zach Kleiman has been consistently aggressive in dealing for them in his tenure, and he got an experienced college player in Roddy, a forward built like a linebacker (6’5″, 252 pounds) with a unique skill set. He had an excellent junior season for Colorado State, averaging 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.2 SPG and 1.1 BPG on .571/.438/.691 shooting in 31 games (32.9 MPG).

There’s no guarantee that Roddy will turn into the level of player that Melton is, but as I said, there was a minutes logjam in the backcourt, and Roddy’s contract will pay him just shy of $13MM over four years, compared to the $16.25MM ($9.75MM guaranteed) Melton will earn over the next two.

Both financially and as long-term upside swing, it was an understandable gamble. If Roddy makes the type of leap that Maxey was able to in his second year, it could look like a home run. Only time will tell.

As previously mentioned, the Grizzlies also acquired Green, though his future with the team is far less certain. One of the most reliable 3-and-D players in the league over the past decade, hopefully Green will be able to make an NBA return and eventually go out on his terms. At 35 years old, it’s hard to say how much he has left in the tank, but he has had a great career, winning three championships with the Spurs, Raptors and Lakers.

In the meantime, he’s a good veteran to have around for a young Memphis squad, and mid-size contracts like his $10MM expiring deal are always useful for trade purposes even if he doesn’t wind up making any on-court contributions this season.

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