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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Pacific Division

September 12th, 2022 at 8:30am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Pacific division…

Golden State Warriors

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Sacramento Kings

Previous voting results:

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
  • Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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Community Shootaround: Top Remaining Free Agents

September 11th, 2022 at 5:32pm CST by JD Shaw

As the NBA offseason nears its end, several players who ended last season under contract with a team remain available in free agency. Training camps are set to open across the league later this month, so time is running out for those players ahead of the regular season.

Teams are also still rounding out their training camp rosters by signing players to Exhibit 10, two-way and non-guaranteed deals. As shown by our current list of free agents, Dennis Schröder, Isaiah Thomas, Jeremy Lamb, Lou Williams, Lance Stephenson, Andre Iguodala, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard are among the veterans still available.

Of course, many of those players are likely nearing the end of their careers, including Williams (36 next month), Anthony (38) and Howard (36). Iguodala, 38, still hasn’t decided whether he’ll be playing or retiring. The Warriors likely value his leadership and experience more than his production at this point in his career.

The rest of those players are all 33 years old or younger, but several young players are also available. Schröder has a case to be the best option, averaging 13.5 points in 28.7 minutes per game with Boston and Houston last season. Plenty of the others hold All-Star experience.

We want to know what you think. Among the remaining free agents, who do you think is the most valuable one? Who could help a specific team this season, even if they wind up signing later in the year? Which players on our current list of free agents interest you the most? Take to the comments section below and voice your opinions!

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Community Shootaround: In-Season Tournament

September 10th, 2022 at 10:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

Details are still being worked out regarding a proposed in-season tournament, but the NBA appears to be targeting the 2023/24 season to implement it.

Shams Charania of The Athletic reported this week that the current framework has cup games being held throughout November with eight teams advancing to a single-elimination format that would be played in December. All the games would count toward the teams’ regular-season record, and the finalists would each have one extra game.

The tournament would have to be approved by the players union, and the two sides are continuing to sort through ideas. One important step will be deciding what incentives will be given to the final eight teams to make advancing worth the effort. Charania states that the Competition Committee discussed the tournament last September and considered prize money of $1MM per player for the winning team.

Commissioner Adam Silver has been a longtime proponent of the in-season tournament, believing it will eventually become as popular as a similar event in European soccer. Silver said in February that the players appear more receptive toward the idea after seeing the success of the play-in tournament that determines the final two playoff spots in each conference.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told NBA writer Marc Stein that he has changed his mind about the in-season tournament and is “actually open to it,” starting with next season (Twitter link). Cuban said the event “has a chance to build interest” for the league during the early part of its schedule.

Cuban also proposes expanding the draft from two to four rounds and giving the first pick in the two new rounds to the tournament winner (Twitter link). He would add the stipulation that those two picks cannot be traded. Like the tournament itself, any changes to the draft process would require NBPA approval.

We want to get your opinion. Do you believe an in-season tournament would cause more fans to pay attention to the NBA during the fall? And do you see merit in Cuban’s idea to expand the draft? Please leave your answers in the space below.

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Community Shootaround: New York Knicks

September 9th, 2022 at 9:48pm CST by Rory Maher

After missing the playoffs for seven straight years, the Knicks had a surprising turnaround during the 2020/21 season under new head coach Tom Thibodeau, finishing with a 41-31 record, the No. 4 seed in the East. They ultimately fell to the Hawks in the first round, but it was still a successful season, particularly given the notable contributions from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.

Randle was an All-Star for the first time, earned a berth on the All-NBA Second Team, and was voted Most Improved Player after averaging 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 6.0 APG on .456/.411/.811 shooting (.567 true shooting percentage). Barrett improved his numbers across the board, and his .441/.401/.746 (.535 true) shooting line was very encouraging for a player who had question marks about his jump shot.

New York had the NBA’s third-ranked defense in ’20/21, and its net rating was +2.4, ninth in the league. The team’s expected win total precisely matched its actual total, per Basketball-Reference.

Unfortunately, the Knicks had a disappointing follow-up season in ’21/22, finishing with a 37-45 record, the No. 11 seed in the East. Randle fell back to earth a bit and had several strange incidents both on and off the court, posting a disappointing .411/.308/.756 (.509 true) shooting line and lacking the same effort level defensively. Similarly, although his scoring average improved, Barrett’s efficiency got worse, posting a .408/.342/.714 (.511 true) shooting line.

The team’s offensive rating was nearly identical between the two seasons (110.6 vs. 110.4, both below average), but the defense fell to 11th in the league, with a -0.1 net rating. The Knicks’ actual win total was four less than expected, but even if they had won four more games, they still would’ve likely missed the play-in tournament (Atlanta and Charlotte both finished with 43 wins).

The Knicks’ front office recognized that they needed to make some changes and have had a busy offseason, trading away the No. 11 pick (Ousmane Dieng) to the Thunder to acquire three 2023 protected first-round picks, then flipping one (the Nuggets’ lottery-protected pick) and four second-rounders to the Hornets for the draft rights to No. 13 pick Jalen Duren.

New York then packaged Duren with Kemba Walker, receiving the Bucks’ 2025 top-four protected first-rounder from the Pistons in the deal. The Knicks also made a separate trade with Detroit, a salary dump move that sent Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, a second-rounder and $6MM in cash in exchange for a heavily-protected second-rounder.

All of those moves gave the Knicks the cap room to sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104MM deal. They also signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to a two-year, $16MM deal and re-signed center Mitchell Robinson to a four-year, $60MM contract.

Obviously, they were heavily involved in trade rumors for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell, who landed in Cleveland, but ultimately didn’t make the deal and I’m not going to get into that much since it’s been written about ad nauseam.

Even though the Knicks have had an active summer, former Knicks head coach and current ESPN broadcaster Jeff Van Gundy doesn’t think the team has moved the needle much with its roster moves, per Marc Berman of The New York Post.

“The Knicks have good players, but you line it up against the competition in the East, and this roster is not on the same level,” Van Gundy told Berman in a phone interview. “They could shock the world and be a playoff team, but I look at the East and I’d have to say eight to 13 is where they should be predicted. They’re not even close to a lock for the play-in. A lot has to go right.”

According to Van Gundy, the Knicks lack the top-end talent to be considered a real threat. He suggests that a turnaround and play-in berth might hinge upon a bounce-back season from Randle.

That leads us to our question of the day. Do you agree with Van Gundy’s assessment that “a lot has to go right” for the Knicks to make the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section and let us know what you think.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

September 9th, 2022 at 11:42am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Central division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Previous voting results:

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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Extension Candidate: De’Andre Hunter

September 9th, 2022 at 7:46am CST by Rory Maher

This is the fourth installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at an oft-injured wing with tantalizing two-way potential.

Rundown:

The No. 4 overall pick of the 2019 draft after two college seasons at Virginia, De’Andre Hunter had a prominent role as a rookie for the Hawks, but his results were a little uneven, which is normal for first-year players. In 63 games (32.0 MPG) in 2019/20, he averaged 12.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG on .410/.355/.764 shooting (.521 true shooting percentage).

Hunter clearly worked hard on his game entering year two, as he got off to a great start, averaging 17.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG on a stellar .517/.375/.877 (.646 true) shooting line in 17 games (33.3 MPG). Unfortunately, things went downhill from there, as right knee discomfort and swelling ultimately led to arthroscopic surgery and multiple setbacks, causing Hunter to miss all but five games the rest of the regular season.

He did appear in all five games of Atlanta’s first-round playoff victory over the Knicks, but didn’t look like the same player. Hunter underwent surgery to repair a torn lateral meniscus in the same knee shortly thereafter.

Last season, Hunter had a slow start, not quite looking like himself after the meniscus tear. On November 8, he sustained a tendon injury on his right wrist, which required surgery and caused him to miss eight weeks of action (26 games).

Overall, he averaged 13.4 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .442/.379/.765 shooting (.547 true) in 53 games (29.8 MPG). The Hawks were very banged up at the end of the year, causing them to be overmatched in their first-round playoff loss to the Heat, but Hunter was the team’s best performer – he averaged 21.2 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .557/.462/.800 shooting (.674 true).

Strengths:

During that 17-game stretch to start ’20/21, Hunter legitimately looked like he could be a future All-Star, using his length and athleticism to aggressively drive to the hoop. Even though the Hawks lost the game, he had a memorable performance against the eventual champion Bucks, scoring a career-high 33 points on 13-of-21 shooting while fearlessly attacking Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Hunter has plus size for a forward at 6’8″ and 225 pounds with a 7’2″ wingspan, and he’s versatile on both ends of the court. He’s often tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ best perimeter scorers, as Atlanta has lacked reliable wing defenders.

The 24-year-old was a high draft choice in large part due to his defensive upside, and while he shows flashes of being a plus defender, he lacks the consistency necessary to be a true defensive force. The talent is definitely there though, and that’s something you can’t teach.

Hunter gets to the free throw line at a good rate, can score in a variety of ways, and was an above-average three-point shooter in ‘21/22 (37.9%). Nearly all of his attempts from long distance came via catch-and-shoot, and he converted a career-best 40.5% from the corners.

Improvement Areas:

Consistency is the name of the game for Hunter. He has shown flashes of high-level two-way potential, but he hasn’t been able to string it together consistently for any sustained period of time.

Losing time to injuries is out of his control, but it has certainly had an effect on his performance the past couple of years. In order to land a big pay day, he needs to prove that he can stay healthy.

Hunter is a below-average rebounder, and there’s no reason he can’t be better at his size. An average of 3.3 boards per game is unacceptably low for a forward. Even though he’s a versatile scorer, he only shot 55% at the rim last season — 23rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

He’s also a poor play-maker, recording more turnovers (69) than assists (68) in ‘21/22. Hunter’s 6% assist percentage was only in the 12th percentile. There’s a lot of room for improvement there.

Conclusion:

Out of all the players eligible for rookie scale extensions in 2022, Hunter’s market value is one of the most difficult to gauge due to his injury history and inconsistent play. He definitely has a lot to prove in the upcoming season, both for his own future and to the Hawks.

They’re very different players, but maybe someone like Thunder wing Luguentz Dort works as a point of comparison for Hunter – Dort signed a five-year, $82.5MM deal with a fifth-year team option as a restricted free agent this offseason. Dort is a better defender, but Hunter has more offensive upside.

Since he isn’t getting a maximum-salary deal, Atlanta can only offer Hunter four years in an extension. Dort got $64.78MM guaranteed over four years, with an additional $1MM in annual unlikely incentives.

Sources told Jake Fisher of Bleacher Report in July that the Hawks and Hunter’s agents were approximately $20MM apart in their extension discussions. Making an educated guess, I would wager Atlanta was offering around $60MM – perhaps with additional incentives tied to games played – and Hunter was looking for around $80MM.

Hunter could easily outplay a $15MM-per-year contract, but he hasn’t shown he’s worth even that much yet. Analytics are really low on Hunter’s game – I’m more bullish on his potential, assuming he can stay healthy.

I don’t see any reason for the Hawks to budge in what they’re willing to offer, and given his injury history, there are valid reasons for Hunter to consider signing a relatively team-friendly deal. If he turns down an extension and has a breakout fourth season, that’s a good problem to have for Atlanta, because he’d be providing excess value on the final year of his rookie deal and would make it an easier decision to invest in him long term.

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Poll: Dennis Schröder’s Next Team

September 8th, 2022 at 2:41pm CST by Rory Maher

Veteran point guard Dennis Schröder, currently playing for the German national team in EuroBasket action, is the only unrestricted free agent left on our list of the top 50 NBA free agents of 2022.

It’s hard to believe we’re only a year-and-a-half removed from Schröder reportedly turning down an extension from the Lakers worth $80MM+. Last summer he had to settle for a one-year, $5.9MM deal with the Celtics, who eventually traded him to the Rockets in February.

In 64 games (28.7 MPG) split between Boston and Houston during the 2021/22 season, Schröder averaged 13.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 4.6 APG on .431/.344/.853 shooting — solid production. Still, when a team trades you away in the middle of an extended hot streak and goes on to make the NBA Finals, that raises some red flags.

Schröder, who turns 29 next week, remains a talented scorer and is a plus ball-handler who can set up both himself and teammates. His ability to create shots is a valuable skill. And it’s not as though he’s past his peak physically — he’s still one of the quickest players in the league.

He’s not without flaws, however, as he’s an inconsistent outside shooter whose defensive effort often fluctuates. He also skews a little on the selfish side, preferring to look for his own shot, even though he’s a good passer when he’s so inclined.

More than two months into free agency, there aren’t many teams with roster openings, so the odds of Schröder landing a deal for more than the veteran’s minimum seem remote. Having said that, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t find a team before training camps start later this month.

Things have been pretty quiet on the rumors front. Marc Stein reported that the Lakers were giving “legit consideration” to signing Schröder a couple of weeks ago, but then they traded for Patrick Beverley, making a reunion more uncertain. A couple of high-ranking Mavericks executives recently watched Schröder compete, and Stein subsequently wrote the Mavs have considered adding a veteran ball-handler, but Dallas might not want to carry a 15th roster spot right away due to the luxury tax. All the other rumors about Schröder are months old.

Even though they haven’t been linked in any way that I’m aware of, the Hornets might make the most sense as a potential match. They only have 13 players on guaranteed deals and don’t have a backup point guard behind LaMelo Ball at the moment.

The Suns and Hawks could also be a fit. Both teams only have 13 players on guaranteed deals. Phoenix has Chris Paul and Cameron Payne at the point, but Paul is one of the oldest players in the league and Payne is coming off a down season. Schröder spent his first five seasons with the Hawks, but they already have Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and Aaron Holiday, so minutes might be harder to come by there.

With training camps less than three weeks away, we should learn pretty soon where Schröder will be headed — assuming he finds a team. In the meantime, we want to know what you think. Which team will sign Schröder in the coming weeks?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

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Players Currently Affected By Trade Restrictions

September 8th, 2022 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA has no shortage of rules affecting which players can and can’t be traded at any given time, which complicates our understanding of which players are truly moveable. That’s especially true leading up to the regular season, when players who recently signed free agent contracts, extensions, and rookie contracts all face different sets of trade restrictions.

In an effort to clear things up, we’re looking today at which players around the NBA are currently affected by trade restrictions of one kind or another. Let’s dive in…

Recently signed free agents

For the most part, a free agent who signed a contract in the offseason is ineligible to be traded until December 15.

Currently, our list of players who will become trade-eligible on December 15 features 78 names, including Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, the most notable free agent to change teams this summer. But the list is technically even longer than that, since we haven’t included players who signed Exhibit 10 contracts. Most of those players will be waived by opening night, but if they earn spots on regular season rosters, the December 15 trade restriction would apply to them too.

It’s worth noting that Knicks big man Jericho Sims falls into this category too, despite not being a free agent this summer. A player who has his two-way deal converted to a standard contract during the offseason, like Sims did, also doesn’t become trade-eligible until December 15.

A select group of recently signed free agents won’t become trade-eligible until January 15. These 20 players all meet a specific set of criteria: Not only did they re-sign with their previous team this offseason, but they got a raise of at least 20%, their salary is worth more than the minimum, and their team was over the cap, using Bird or Early Bird rights to sign them.

A free agent who signs after September 15 won’t become trade-eligible until three months after his signing date. So, if a player signs with a team on September 29, he’d become eligible for a trade on December 29. Because the 2023 trade deadline is set to land on February 9, a free agent who signs a contract after November 9 won’t be trade-eligible this season.

The above rules apply to players who sign standard contracts, not two-way deals. A player who signs a two-way contract is ineligible to be traded for 30 days. So Malcolm Hill, who signed with the Bulls on Wednesday, will become trade-eligible on October 7. Two-way players are virtually never traded anyway though.

Recently signed draft picks

Like a player who signs a two-way contract, a draftee who signs his first NBA contract is ineligible to be traded for 30 days. Currently, this restriction only impacts Raptors second-rounder Christian Koloko, who signed on August 26 and will become trade-eligible on September 25.

The rest of this year’s draftees can currently be traded. That list includes all the players besides Koloko who have signed, since more than 30 days have passed since their officially completed their deals.

It also includes those players who remain unsigned, such as E.J. Liddell or Kendall Brown, since their draft rights can be traded until they sign their contract. Once they officially sign, they’ll become trade-ineligible for 30 days.

Players with veto ability

Wizards star Bradley Beal is the only NBA player who has a genuine no-trade clause in his contract, but several other players have the ability to veto trades this season due to various quirks of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The most notable of those players is Suns center Deandre Ayton, whose consent is required because Phoenix matched his offer sheet from the Pacers this offseason. Sixers guard James Harden also has the ability to veto a trade in 2022/23.

The rest of the list, which consists of 16 more names, is significantly less star-studded — Drew Eubanks, Nathan Knight, Theo Pinson, and Luca Vildoza are among the players who can veto trades this season, for example.

Players who have signed veteran extensions

A player who signs a rookie scale extension becomes more difficult to trade due to the “poison pill provision,” but he could theoretically be moved immediately.

That’s not necessarily the case for a player who signs a veteran contract extension. A player who signs a veteran extension that locks him up for more than three total years (including his current contract) and/or includes a raise higher than 5% become ineligible to be traded for the next six months.

With the help of our extension trackers, here are the players currently affected by that rule, along with the dates they’ll become trade-eligible:

Five players who signed veteran extensions in recent months received new contracts that didn’t exceed three total years or include raises greater than 5%, meaning they remain eligible to be traded. Those players are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets), Robert Covington (Clippers), Thaddeus Young (Raptors), Gary Harris (Magic), and Taurean Prince (Timberwolves).

Players who have signed Designated Veteran extensions

A Designated Veteran contract is also known as a “super-max” deal — it’s a maximum-salary contract that starts at 35% of the cap instead of 30% because the player has met certain performance criteria before achieving 10 years of NBA service.

A player who signs a Designated Veteran contract or extension can’t be traded for one full year after his signing date.

Three star players have signed Designated Veteran extensions this offseason. Here are those players, along with the dates they’ll become trade-eligible:

Players affected by aggregation restrictions

When a team trades for a player via salary-matching or using an exception (ie. not by absorbing the player into cap room), that team can’t “aggregate” the player in another trade for two months. Aggregating a player means combining his salary with another player’s for matching purposes.

For instance, when the Jazz acquired Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Leandro Bolmaro in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster on July 6, they were prohibited from aggregating any of those players in a second deal until at least September 6. Utah ultimately moved Beverley on August 25 and was able to do so because he was the only outgoing player in that trade.

Since most of this offseason’s trades were completed in late June or early July, this restriction is no longer affecting many players. By the end of the coming weekend, only a small handful of players will still be ineligible to be aggregated in a trade. Here are those players, along with the dates they’ll become eligible to be aggregated:

Any player who is traded this season after December 9 (without being acquired via cap room) won’t be eligible to be flipped prior to the trade deadline in a second deal that aggregates his salary with another player’s.

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Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson

September 8th, 2022 at 7:46am CST by Rory Maher

This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.

Rundown:

The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.

Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.

Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).

His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).

Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.

Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).

Strengths:

Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.

While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.

Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).

Improvement areas:

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.

Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.

However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.

Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.

Conclusion:

Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).

If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.

The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.

If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

September 7th, 2022 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll continue our series today with the Southwest division…

Memphis Grizzlies

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans

  • 2021/22 record: 36-46
  • Over/under for 2022/23: 44.5 wins
  • Major offseason moves:

Houston Rockets

San Antonio Spurs

Previous voting results:

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
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