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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Northwest Division

September 16th, 2022 at 1:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll wrap up our series today with the Northwest division…

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Portland Trail Blazers

Utah Jazz

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • 2021/22 record: 24-58
  • Over/under for 2022/23: 22.5 wins
  • Major offseason moves:

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): Under (56.1%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (51.5 wins): Under (64.5%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (50.5 wins): Over (76.1%)
  • Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Over (65.7%)
  • New York Knicks (40.5 wins): Under (63.0%)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
  • Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Pacific

  • Golden State Warriors (53.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (53.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (52.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (45.5 wins): Under (66.6%)
  • Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (62.0%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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Community Shootaround: Charlotte Hornets

September 14th, 2022 at 2:45pm CST by Luke Adams

When I previewed the Hornets‘ offseason in May, I speculated that it would be a busy summer in Charlotte, with James Borrego‘s ouster as the team’s head coach representing the first of many personnel changes likely to occur off and on the court.

As I outlined at the time, the decision to dismiss Borrego suggested that Hornets leadership wasn’t satisfied with the team’s gradual improvement (from 23-42 to 33-39 to 43-39 over the last three seasons) and was preparing to take a big swing to ensure the club was closer to contention in 2022/23.

Instead, Charlotte has been one of the least active teams of the offseason.

The Hornets have inked just one veteran free agent to a standard contract, re-signing RFA forward Cody Martin. They made two trades, but neither brought back a veteran player. The only new player the club has added to its projected 15-man regular season roster so far is former Duke center Mark Williams, the No. 15 overall pick in the draft, who seems unlikely to play a huge role as a rookie.

There are a few possible explanations for the Hornets’ relative inactivity. One is that the club simply hasn’t found many opportunities it liked and continues to bide its time, waiting for an opportunity to make a splash on the trade market. Charlotte was, after all, one of the potential suitors linked to Donovan Mitchell before he was dealt to Cleveland.

Another explanation is that the Hornets aren’t prepared to make major changes to their roster before they see what new head coach Steve Clifford can get out of the current group. If the front office believes that Borrego simply wasn’t maximizing the talent on the roster, it makes sense not to do anything drastic until getting a sense of how the team looks under Clifford.

A third possible explanation is that the domestic violence charges levied against restricted free agent Miles Bridges forced the Hornets to rethink their entire approach to the offseason.

Bridges was one of Charlotte’s two most important players last season, along with LaMelo Ball. Now that his NBA future is up in the air as his legal case plays out, the Hornets may have simply decided that it’s not in their best interest to go all-in on their push for the playoffs, given the extent to which Bridges’ potential absence limits the team’s ceiling.

There’s still a good deal of talent on this Charlotte roster. Ball is a rising star; Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier are quality starters; Cody Martin, P.J. Washington, Kelly Oubre, and Mason Plumlee are solid rotation pieces; James Bouknight, Kai Jones, Jalen McDaniels, and Williams are among the intriguing youngsters who could prove capable of greater roles.

But Bridges will be a big loss if he doesn’t re-sign or if he misses most or all of the season, either on administrative leave or serving a suspension. On top of that, the Hornets are still missing an impact player in the frontcourt who is capable of anchoring the defense and being a pick-and-roll partner to Ball on offense — Williams has the potential to become that player, but the 20-year-old can’t be relied upon to be that guy right away.

We want to know what you think. What’s the next move in Charlotte? Has Bridges played his last game in a Hornets uniform? How can the team continue to make forward progress after making the play-in game in each of the last two seasons?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Players Who Have Signed Designated Veteran Contracts

September 14th, 2022 at 9:17am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA and the Players’ Association introduced the Designated Veteran contract in the 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement, the goal was to help teams keep their very best players by giving those clubs the unique ability to offer more lucrative contracts to stars who met certain performance-related criteria.

The Designated Veteran rule allows a player with between seven and nine years of NBA experience – who would normally qualify for a starting salary worth 30% of the NBA’s salary cap on a new free agent contract or extension – to become eligible for a salary worth up to 35% of the cap if he meets one of the following requirements:

  • He was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.
  • He was named NBA MVP in any of the three most recent seasons.
  • He was named NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

The new rule has been somewhat hit and miss. In some cases, it has worked exactly as intended — Warriors guard Stephen Curry, for instance, signed the very first Designated Veteran free agent contract and earned every penny of it, making four All-NBA teams, winning two championships, and earning his first NBA Finals MVP award over the life of the five-year deal.

The ability to offer a Designated Veteran extension also allowed non-marquee franchises like the Bucks and Nuggets to retain their superstars (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic) with minimal drama.

In other cases, the Designated Veteran rule has been less effective. Players like Paul George (Pacers), Kawhi Leonard (Spurs), and Anthony Davis (Pelicans), among others, were willing to pass on super-max opportunities with smaller-market clubs in order to push for trades elsewhere.

Additionally, two of the first Designated Veteran extensions signed by star players turned sour well before they expired — John Wall was kept away from the team during the fourth year of his super-max deal, then was bought out of the fifth year by the Rockets, while Lakers guard Russell Westbrook has become impossible to trade without sweeteners as he enters the final year of his own DVE.

Although the Designated Veteran contracts signed to date have been something of a mixed bag, there has been no indication that the NBA or NBPA will be looking to remove the rule in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. It seems safe to assume it’s here to stay.

Here’s the full list – as of September 2022 – of the players who have signed Designated Veteran contracts since they were introduced in 2017:

2017

  • Stephen Curry (Warriors)
    • Free agent contract. Five years, $201,158,790. Began in 2017/18.
    • Qualified by winning Most Valuable Player award in 2015.
  • Russell Westbrook (Thunder)
    • Contract extension. Five years, $206,794,070. Began in 2018/19.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA teams in 2015 and 2016.
  • James Harden (Rockets)
    • Contract extension. Four years, $171,131,520. Began in 2019/20.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2017.
  • John Wall (Wizards)
    • Contract extension. Four years, $171,131,520. Began in 2019/20.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2017.

2018

  • None

2019

  • Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers)
    • Contract extension. Four years, $176,265,152. Began in 2021/22.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2019.

2020

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
    • Contract extension. Five years, $228,200,420. Began in 2021/22.
    • Qualified by winning Most Valuable Player award in 2019.
  • Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
    • Contract extension. Five years, $205,000,000. Began in 2021/22.
      • Note: Gobert’s starting salary was about 31.4% of the 2021/22 cap, rather than 35%. That makes it a Designated Veteran contract, but not a full super-max deal.
    • Qualified by winning Defensive Player of the Year award in 2018 and 2019.

2021

  • Joel Embiid (Sixers)
    • Contract extension. Four years, $213,280,928. Began in 2023/24.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2021.

2022

  • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
    • Contract extension. Five years, $276,122,630. Began in 2023/24.
    • Qualified by winning Most Valuable Player award in 2021.
  • Devin Booker (Suns)
    • Contract extension. Four years, $220,441,984. Began in 2024/25.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2022.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves)
    • Contract extension. Four years, $220,441,984. Began in 2024/25.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2022.

2023

  • Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
    • Contract extension. Five years, $285,393,640. Began in 2024/25.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA team in 2023.

2024

  • Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

    • Contract extension. Five years, $313,933,410 (projected). Begins in 2025/26.
    • Qualified by making All-NBA teams in 2022 and 2023.
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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Atlantic Division

September 14th, 2022 at 7:56am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Atlantic division…

Boston Celtics

Brooklyn Nets

Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto Raptors

New York Knicks

Previous voting results:

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
  • Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Pacific

  • Golden State Warriors (53.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (53.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (52.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (45.5 wins): Under (66.6%)
  • Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (62.0%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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Updated Maximum, Minimum, MLE, BAE Projections For 2023/24

September 13th, 2022 at 8:27am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA issued a new salary cap projection for the 2023/24 season on Friday, increasing its estimate for next year’s cap to $134MM.

There are a number of salary figures directly connected to the cap, including the league-wide maximum and minimum salaries, the mid-level exception, and the bi-annual exception. Those figures increase or decrease each year by the same percentage the cap does.

The NBA’s new cap projection meant we had a series of ’23/24 projections of our own in need of updating. Here are the links to those updated numbers:

Maximum salary projections for 2023/24

These are the projected earnings for players who signed maximum salary extensions that will go into effect in 2023, including Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Nikola Jokic, and Joel Embiid, among others. Jokic’s record-setting super-max extension, previously projected to be worth just shy of $270MM over five years, is now on track to be worth $272MM+.

Minimum salary projections for 2023/24

These are the minimum salaries that a player who signs a standard contract in 2023/24 will be eligible to earn. Next year’s rookie minimum is currently projected to exceed $1.1MM, while the minimum salary for a veteran with at least 10 years of NBA experience will surpass $3MM for the first time in league history.

Mid-level, bi-annual projections for 2023/24

These projections cover the various mid-level exceptions available to teams, including the full (non-taxpayer) mid-level exception, the taxpayer version of the MLE, and the “room” exception for teams that use cap space. A player who signs a four-year contract worth the full mid-level next summer would be in line to receive nearly $49MM over the life of the deal.

The bi-annual exception is also included in these projections — it projects to be worth a record $4,448,000 in ’23/24.

These projections can be found anytime on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site under “Hoops Rumors Features” or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. They’ll be updated again later this season if the NBA issues another new cap projection.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Pacific Division

September 12th, 2022 at 8:30am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Pacific division…

Golden State Warriors

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Sacramento Kings

Previous voting results:

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
  • Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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Community Shootaround: Top Remaining Free Agents

September 11th, 2022 at 5:32pm CST by JD Shaw

As the NBA offseason nears its end, several players who ended last season under contract with a team remain available in free agency. Training camps are set to open across the league later this month, so time is running out for those players ahead of the regular season.

Teams are also still rounding out their training camp rosters by signing players to Exhibit 10, two-way and non-guaranteed deals. As shown by our current list of free agents, Dennis Schröder, Isaiah Thomas, Jeremy Lamb, Lou Williams, Lance Stephenson, Andre Iguodala, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard are among the veterans still available.

Of course, many of those players are likely nearing the end of their careers, including Williams (36 next month), Anthony (38) and Howard (36). Iguodala, 38, still hasn’t decided whether he’ll be playing or retiring. The Warriors likely value his leadership and experience more than his production at this point in his career.

The rest of those players are all 33 years old or younger, but several young players are also available. Schröder has a case to be the best option, averaging 13.5 points in 28.7 minutes per game with Boston and Houston last season. Plenty of the others hold All-Star experience.

We want to know what you think. Among the remaining free agents, who do you think is the most valuable one? Who could help a specific team this season, even if they wind up signing later in the year? Which players on our current list of free agents interest you the most? Take to the comments section below and voice your opinions!

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Community Shootaround: In-Season Tournament

September 10th, 2022 at 10:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

Details are still being worked out regarding a proposed in-season tournament, but the NBA appears to be targeting the 2023/24 season to implement it.

Shams Charania of The Athletic reported this week that the current framework has cup games being held throughout November with eight teams advancing to a single-elimination format that would be played in December. All the games would count toward the teams’ regular-season record, and the finalists would each have one extra game.

The tournament would have to be approved by the players union, and the two sides are continuing to sort through ideas. One important step will be deciding what incentives will be given to the final eight teams to make advancing worth the effort. Charania states that the Competition Committee discussed the tournament last September and considered prize money of $1MM per player for the winning team.

Commissioner Adam Silver has been a longtime proponent of the in-season tournament, believing it will eventually become as popular as a similar event in European soccer. Silver said in February that the players appear more receptive toward the idea after seeing the success of the play-in tournament that determines the final two playoff spots in each conference.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told NBA writer Marc Stein that he has changed his mind about the in-season tournament and is “actually open to it,” starting with next season (Twitter link). Cuban said the event “has a chance to build interest” for the league during the early part of its schedule.

Cuban also proposes expanding the draft from two to four rounds and giving the first pick in the two new rounds to the tournament winner (Twitter link). He would add the stipulation that those two picks cannot be traded. Like the tournament itself, any changes to the draft process would require NBPA approval.

We want to get your opinion. Do you believe an in-season tournament would cause more fans to pay attention to the NBA during the fall? And do you see merit in Cuban’s idea to expand the draft? Please leave your answers in the space below.

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Community Shootaround: New York Knicks

September 9th, 2022 at 9:48pm CST by Rory Maher

After missing the playoffs for seven straight years, the Knicks had a surprising turnaround during the 2020/21 season under new head coach Tom Thibodeau, finishing with a 41-31 record, the No. 4 seed in the East. They ultimately fell to the Hawks in the first round, but it was still a successful season, particularly given the notable contributions from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.

Randle was an All-Star for the first time, earned a berth on the All-NBA Second Team, and was voted Most Improved Player after averaging 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 6.0 APG on .456/.411/.811 shooting (.567 true shooting percentage). Barrett improved his numbers across the board, and his .441/.401/.746 (.535 true) shooting line was very encouraging for a player who had question marks about his jump shot.

New York had the NBA’s third-ranked defense in ’20/21, and its net rating was +2.4, ninth in the league. The team’s expected win total precisely matched its actual total, per Basketball-Reference.

Unfortunately, the Knicks had a disappointing follow-up season in ’21/22, finishing with a 37-45 record, the No. 11 seed in the East. Randle fell back to earth a bit and had several strange incidents both on and off the court, posting a disappointing .411/.308/.756 (.509 true) shooting line and lacking the same effort level defensively. Similarly, although his scoring average improved, Barrett’s efficiency got worse, posting a .408/.342/.714 (.511 true) shooting line.

The team’s offensive rating was nearly identical between the two seasons (110.6 vs. 110.4, both below average), but the defense fell to 11th in the league, with a -0.1 net rating. The Knicks’ actual win total was four less than expected, but even if they had won four more games, they still would’ve likely missed the play-in tournament (Atlanta and Charlotte both finished with 43 wins).

The Knicks’ front office recognized that they needed to make some changes and have had a busy offseason, trading away the No. 11 pick (Ousmane Dieng) to the Thunder to acquire three 2023 protected first-round picks, then flipping one (the Nuggets’ lottery-protected pick) and four second-rounders to the Hornets for the draft rights to No. 13 pick Jalen Duren.

New York then packaged Duren with Kemba Walker, receiving the Bucks’ 2025 top-four protected first-rounder from the Pistons in the deal. The Knicks also made a separate trade with Detroit, a salary dump move that sent Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, a second-rounder and $6MM in cash in exchange for a heavily-protected second-rounder.

All of those moves gave the Knicks the cap room to sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104MM deal. They also signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to a two-year, $16MM deal and re-signed center Mitchell Robinson to a four-year, $60MM contract.

Obviously, they were heavily involved in trade rumors for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell, who landed in Cleveland, but ultimately didn’t make the deal and I’m not going to get into that much since it’s been written about ad nauseam.

Even though the Knicks have had an active summer, former Knicks head coach and current ESPN broadcaster Jeff Van Gundy doesn’t think the team has moved the needle much with its roster moves, per Marc Berman of The New York Post.

“The Knicks have good players, but you line it up against the competition in the East, and this roster is not on the same level,” Van Gundy told Berman in a phone interview. “They could shock the world and be a playoff team, but I look at the East and I’d have to say eight to 13 is where they should be predicted. They’re not even close to a lock for the play-in. A lot has to go right.”

According to Van Gundy, the Knicks lack the top-end talent to be considered a real threat. He suggests that a turnaround and play-in berth might hinge upon a bounce-back season from Randle.

That leads us to our question of the day. Do you agree with Van Gundy’s assessment that “a lot has to go right” for the Knicks to make the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section and let us know what you think.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

September 9th, 2022 at 11:42am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Central division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Previous voting results:

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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