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Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson

September 8th, 2022 at 7:46am CST by Rory Maher

This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.

Rundown:

The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.

Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.

Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).

His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).

Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.

Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).

Strengths:

Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.

While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.

Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).

Improvement areas:

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.

Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.

However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.

Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.

Conclusion:

Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).

If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.

The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.

If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

September 7th, 2022 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll continue our series today with the Southwest division…

Memphis Grizzlies

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans

  • 2021/22 record: 36-46
  • Over/under for 2022/23: 44.5 wins
  • Major offseason moves:

Houston Rockets

San Antonio Spurs

Previous voting results:

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
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Poll: Russell Westbrook’s Future

September 7th, 2022 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

After the first wave of free agency ended and teams went on vacation following Summer League play in July, four major trade candidates lingered on the market: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Donovan Mitchell, and Russell Westbrook.

Following another month of rumors, Durant ultimately rescinded his trade request, which seemingly resolved Irving’s situation as well — neither Net is going anywhere, at least for the time being. Mitchell was subsequently sent from Utah to Cleveland, leaving Westbrook as the lone big-name trade candidate who seems like a decent bet to be on the move before training camps open.

The Lakers‘ motivation for seeking a new home for Westbrook has been well documented. The former MVP’s first year in Los Angeles wasn’t a success, as his ball-dominant style and inability to stretch the floor proved incompatible with LeBron James and Anthony Davis during the rare instances when all three stars were healthy and shared the court.

Westbrook also appeared unwilling to take responsibility for his part in the Lakers’ struggles. Despite Frank Vogel‘s insistence on sticking with the point guard, who started all 78 games he played and was part of nearly every closing lineup, Westbrook told reporters at season’s end that he wasn’t given a “fair chance” to be himself and suggested that Vogel had “an issue” with him.

While the Lakers’ disaster of a 2021/22 season made it clear that Westbrook would be on the trade block this summer, his $47MM+ cap hit hasn’t made it easy to find a taker. Los Angeles would love to be able to send Westbrook’s expiring contract to a team in exchange for two or three useful rotation players, but any trade partner open to taking on Westbrook is believed to be seeking multiple first-round picks — at least one for absorbing Westbrook’s salary and another for sending out a couple useful players.

The Lakers only have two tradable first-round picks (2027 and 2029) and have thus far been unwilling to include both of them in any deal that doesn’t involve Irving. The rebuilding Pacers (Myles Turner, Buddy Hield) and Jazz (Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley) remain logical matches for the Lakers, since both teams have the ability to trade productive veterans and absorb Westbrook’s money.

But for a deal to be made, the Lakers will either need to relent and give up both their future first-rounders or convince a trade partner to take just one of them (along with perhaps a couple second-rounders and/or first-round swap rights in another year).

With no indication there has been much traction on the Westbrook trade front, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham and owner Jeanie Buss have been talking enthusiastically about the ways they believe Westbrook can fit and succeed with a new-look 2022/23 Lakers team.

I have no doubt that Ham, a first-time head coach who will bring a fresh perspective to the franchise, genuinely believes he can make it work, but it’s hard not to interpret the Lakers’ optimistic comments to the press as spin — if potential trade partners believe L.A. is OK with hanging onto Westbrook and hoping for the best, perhaps those trade partners will reduce their asking prices to get something done.

With training camps less than three weeks away, we should learn pretty soon how serious the Lakers are about retaining Westbrook. In the meantime, we want to know what you think. Will Westbrook open the season as a Laker or be traded in the coming weeks?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

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Extension Candidate: Jordan Poole

September 7th, 2022 at 7:55am CST by Rory Maher

This is the second installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a player who was a key contributor to a championship team in 2022.

Rundown:

The 28th overall pick of the 2019 draft after two years at Michigan, Jordan Poole had a larger-than-expected role as a rookie due to major injuries to Warriors stars Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily in his first pro season, appearing in 57 games (22.4 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG on a ghastly .333/.279/.798 shooting line. His .454 true shooting percentage was last in the entire NBA, as was his -6.6 box plus/minus.

Things weren’t much better for Poole during the first few months of his second season in 2020/21, appearing in just 15 of Golden State’s first 36 games and receiving scant playing time (9.6 MPG). Since he wasn’t getting much NBA run, he was sent to the G League in February 2021 to work on his craft.

Poole displayed a newfound confidence and looked like a completely different player upon his return a month later, emerging as a major spark-plug scorer off the bench. Over his final 36 games (23.5 MPG), he averaged 14.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG on .433/.354/.870 shooting (.579 true).

In year three, Poole built upon the foundation he laid during that strong second half surge, appearing in 76 games (30.0 MPG) while averaging 18.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.0 APG on .448/.364/.925 shooting. He started 51 of those contests in the backcourt alongside Curry.

Out of all guards who averaged at least 18 points per night, Poole ranked fifth in true shooting percentage at .598 – an excellent mark. His .925 free throw percentage led the NBA.

More importantly, he was also a standout performer in the postseason, averaging 17.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 3.8 APG on .508/.391/.915 shooting (.654 true) in 22 games (five starts, 27.5 MPG) during Golden State’s title run.

Strengths:

Poole is an extremely shifty ball-handler who can create space for himself and teammates with ease. While he has a strong first step, what really separates Poole from other ball-handlers is how quickly he can change direction and how decisive he is – if he gains even a slight advantage, he goes straight to the hole.

Another element of Poole’s ball-handling that’s really impressive is that he has counter moves upon counter moves. He can string together a combination of intricate dribble moves in just a second or two, and even if the defender stops the first couple, he might unleash a crossover that leads them reaching on the third.

The 23-year-old is just as comfortable dribbling with his left hand as his right, and doesn’t really show a preference, which makes it really difficult to try to guess which way he’s going to go.

Poole isn’t the most explosive athlete vertically, but he’s very fast with the ball in his hands and excels in the open court. He’s a talented finisher around the basket, converting 62% of his looks at the rim — an above average mark (55th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com). Many of those shots are very high-difficulty attempts as well.

Poole is an excellent scorer from all over the court. While he didn’t attempt many mid-rangers, he knocked down 46% of those looks (78th percentile). A big part of why he was so efficient is because the majority of his shots came either at the rim or from deep – he also gets to the line at a decent clip.

He employs side-steps and step-backs to create space for three-pointers, and 3.0 of his 7.6 attempts per game from deep came off the bounce, per NBA.com. He’s slithery coming off screens, and he’s very smart about using the screen a second time to free himself for a better look or a drive.

As with all of his teammates, Poole certainly benefits from all the attention Curry draws, but he’s perfectly capable of scoring in bunches on his own. During the last 12 games of the regular season, when Curry was injured, Poole averaged 25.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 6.2 APG on .421/.374/.954 shooting (.586 true) and didn’t look out of place as a primary option.

Poole is also a solid passer when he’s so inclined, though he definitely has a score-first mentality – his 21% assist percentage was in the 80th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Improvement Areas:

Poole has been a below average defensive player to this point in his career, and in order for him to take another leap as a player, he needs to get better.

According to NBA.com, opponents shot 1.7% better than their expected field goal percentage with Poole defending them — the second-worst mark on the Warriors — and that’s with the team trying to hide him on weaker offensive players. That figure rose to 4.7% better than expected in the playoffs.

Poole doesn’t really excel at anything on defense. He isn’t strong individually or as a help defender, and he doesn’t force many turnovers (0.8 steal and 0.3 block per night).

Poole was definitely a beneficiary of having several strong defenders around him – the Warriors had the second-best defense during the regular season, and that was their main collective strength in winning the championship.

He’s also a below average rebounder, pulling down just 3.4 per night, and at 6’4” he could stand to bump that number up closer to five, though it’s something he’s never been great at, even in college.

Another area of Poole’s game that needs work is his decision making. His 1.39-to-1 assist to turnover ratio in ‘21/22 was quite poor for a high usage player, especially someone who handles the ball as much as he does.

Lastly, while Poole has very deep range and certainly doesn’t lack in confidence, his 36.4% mark from three was only one percent above league average. If that number rises even a little bit, it would help his already very good efficiency.

Conclusion:

Poole’s statistics last season were fairly similar to Tyler Herro’s, and like Herro, I think Poole is almost certain to receive a nine-figure payday on his next contract. Since he was a late first-rounder, he has “only” earned a little over $6MM to this point. The prospect of receiving $100MM+, assuming the Warriors offer it, would undoubtedly be appealing.

When comparing Poole, Herro and the other young guards who set the market value this summer (Anfernee Simons, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett all received $100-107MM in guaranteed money over four years), I personally think Poole might have the highest upside. But that doesn’t mean he’ll get the most money of the group, particularly in a theoretical extension.

The primary reason the Warriors might be hesitant to give Poole a lucrative extension is that they’re already a record-setting taxpayer, and they’d owe significantly more in taxes than the actual value of his salary. It would also lock in an extremely expensive roster for years to come.

There’s an argument to be made that Poole is a luxury, not a necessity, especially with Thompson healthy for a full season – I don’t buy that argument, but it’s not entirely baseless. The front office might have to choose between paying just one or two of Poole, Draymond Green or Andrew Wiggins, and all were very valuable contributors last season who are good at different things, so it would be a tough call.

If Poole bets on himself and declines an offer for, say, $110MM — which would carry a good deal of risk since he doesn’t have a long track record (plus injuries are always a concern) — there’s a chance he could get a max deal as a restricted free agent in 2023, which is projected to be worth $142,975,000 over four years.

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Extension Candidate: Tyler Herro

September 6th, 2022 at 2:54pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the first installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re getting underway with a look at the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.

Rundown:

The No. 13 overall pick of the 2019 draft after one year at Kentucky, Tyler Herro made an immediate impact in 55 games (27.4 minutes) as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists on .428/.389/.870 shooting for a Heat team that came within two games of a championship. He had a strong playoff run in the Orlando bubble, bumping those averages up to 16.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 3.7 APG on .433/.375/.870 shooting in 21 contests (33.6 minutes).

Herro improved his counting stats during his second season in ‘20/21, averaging 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, though his efficiency declined slightly, with a .439/.360/.803 shooting line. As opposed to his strong postseason showing as a rookie, Herro, like the rest of Miami’s roster, struggled mightily while being swept by the Bucks in the first round, averaging just 9.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 1.8 APG on .316/.316/1.000 shooting in four games (23.3 minutes).

Herro emerged as the league’s most dangerous bench scorer last season, winning the Sixth Man of the Year award after appearing in 66 games (32.6 minutes) while averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists on .447/.399/.868 shooting. However, he once again struggled in the playoffs with defenses more focused on slowing him down, averaging 12.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on .409/.229/.926 shooting in 15 contests (25.4 minutes).

Strengths:

Among players who officially qualified, Herro ranked 21st in the NBA in points per game last season. He is someone opposing defenses are forced to game-plan against.

His primary skill is that he’s an excellent shooter from all over the court, ranking in the 63rd percentile from mid-range, 87th on threes, and 87th from the free throw line, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The threat of Herro’s shooting creates space for teammates, which is really important for a Heat team that struggles at times to space the floor. For as valuable as they are at basically every other aspect of basketball, neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo is a three-point threat, so Miami’s offense can be a bit crowded at times, especially in half court settings.

Herro isn’t just a shooter either, as he shows some impressive play-making chops at times. He’s capable of creating high-quality looks for himself and others on both scripted plays and on the fly.

He posted a 21% assist percentage last season, which was in the 79th percentile of all players. He has good vision and is capable of making difficult one-handed cross-court passes, though he definitely looks for his own shot more often than not.

Herro is capable of acting as a lead ball-handler in spot minutes, and while he isn’t the greatest decision-maker yet (1.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he shows flashes of being able to handle those duties. He’s also a solid rebounder, especially on the defensive glass, with a 15% defensive rebounding rate (59th percentile).

Improvement Areas:

Physical limitations will likely always be an issue for Herro, which is something that’s mostly out of his control. Though he has decent height for a shooting guard at 6’5”, his wingspan is only 6’4”, he isn’t the greatest athlete, and he isn’t the strongest player, leading to him getting pushed around at times.

Those limitations show up in two key areas. The first is that he’s a below-the-rim finisher, and while he has good touch on floaters, he rarely gets all the way to the rim.

According to Basketball-Reference, only 13.7% of Herro’s shots came within three feet of the basket, compared to 27.9% of his looks from 10 feet to the three-point line. He prefers to shoot pull-ups rather than initiating contact in the paint.

The fact that he attempts so many mid-rangers and doesn’t get to the line a ton hurts his overall efficiency (of the 27 players who qualified for the scoring title and averaged at least 20 points, Herro was 25th in free throw attempts). His true shooting percentage (56.1%) was a little below league average (56.6%) last season.

The second area that Herro really needs to improve upon is his defense, which has been particularly problematic in the playoffs. He has been repeatedly targeted as a weak defensive link in each of his three postseason trips.

Opponents shot better (45.7%) than expected (44.8%) with Herro defending them in the regular season, and that gap grew during the playoffs (rivals shot 48.9% versus 46% expected), per NBA.com. And that’s with Herro coming off the bench and the Heat trying to hide him on the opposing teams’ weakest offensive players.

Out of 67 players who averaged at least 32 minutes and appeared in at least 30 games, Herro ranked 62nd in deflections per game with 1.2. He rarely draws charges, and averaged less than one stock (steals plus blocks) per game last season, which is quite poor (0.7 SPG and 0.1 BPG). His steal percentage (1.0%) ranked in the 21st percentile of all players, and his block percentage (0.4%) was in the ninth percentile, per DunksAndThrees.

Conclusion:

Young players are inherently polarizing because they are not finished products. When you watch them play, you’re ideally looking for positive traits that can be translated into future success, but it’s easy to lose sight of that if they’re on a good team and play a big role.

That’s especially true of Herro, even if it’s a little unfair to someone who’s still only 22 years old. More than most former first-round picks still on their rookie deals, Herro is an eye-of-the-beholder player due to his distinct strengths and weaknesses, some of which have been put under a bigger spotlight because of his team’s success.

Anfernee Simons set the market for emerging young guards this summer with a four-year, $100MM deal as a restricted free agent. That’s probably Herro’s floor for his next contract.

If the Heat believe Herro will continue improving and is worthy of a significant long-term investment, I could see him exceeding RJ Barrett’s deal with the Knicks, which is reportedly worth $107MM guaranteed over four years with unlikely incentives pushing it up to a possible $120MM.

If they want to continue to keep their options open and possibly deal him during the season, the Heat would be wise not to extend Herro to avoid the “poison pill provision,” which would make trading him extremely difficult. Miami would still have the ability to match any offer he might receive as a restricted free agent in 2023.

The risk of not extending him, assuming his agents are open to accepting less than a maximum-salary deal right now, is there’s a non-zero chance he gets a max as a restricted free agent next summer. A four-year maximum contract from a rival team is projected to be worth $142,975,000.

Giving Herro around $30MM a year would lock in an expensive core of Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Kyle Lowry for at least the next two seasons (Lowry is a free agent in 2024). Having said that, extending Herro now could make moving him in the 2023 offseason easier for the Heat in some ways – he’d already be trade-eligible, and his larger contract would make salary-matching for another star less tricky than it is on the end of his rookie deal.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

September 6th, 2022 at 9:11am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll begin our series today with the Southeast division…

Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Hornets

Washington Wizards

Orlando Magic

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Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

September 5th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, including the top free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app, which is free, allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a story in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces.

For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james. Those player pages can be added to RSS readers too.

In addition to players, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts or by searching for them in the app.

For instance, you can keep tabs on our 2023 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. Stories related to international basketball are all here. And you can simply scan our top stories here.

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Pre-Camp Roster Snapshot: Northwest Division

September 5th, 2022 at 2:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at each NBA team’s current roster situation, evaluating which clubs still have some moves to make and which ones seem most prepared for training camp to begin.

This series is meant to provide a snapshot of each team’s roster at this time, so these articles won’t be updated in the coming weeks as more signings, trades, and cuts are made. You can follow our roster counts page to keep tabs on teams’ open spots as opening night nears.

We’re wrapping up our pre-camp Roster Snapshot series today with the Northwest Division. Let’s dive in…

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets don’t really need to make any roster moves between now and the start of training camp. Their projected 15-man regular season roster looks set, as do their two-way slots — Gillespie suffered a major leg injury, but Denver reportedly intends to hang onto him as he recovers.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Knight, Nowell, and Rivers look like pretty safe bets to join the 12 players with guaranteed salaries on the 15-man regular season roster, but that’s not set in stone yet. The partial guarantees owed to Rivers ($650K) and Knight ($350K) are modest enough that the Wolves could theoretically go in a different direction without being on the hook for much money.

Still, a player like Elleby or Garza would probably have to really impress Minnesota in training camp and the preseason in order to make the regular season squad.

Oklahoma City Thunder

With 17 players on guaranteed contracts and Krejci owed a $782K partial guarantee, the Thunder will have to trade or release at least three players on standard deals before opening night. Bazley, Favors, Jerome, Maledon, and Krejci are among those whose roster spots may not be 100% guaranteed quite yet.

Additionally, while Oklahoma City doesn’t have a two-way opening, it wouldn’t be a shock if the team makes a change to one of its two-way slots in the next month and a half. A player in the second year of a two-way contract, like Waters, often has a tenuous hold on his spot if he hasn’t yet proven himself as a rotation player.

Portland Trail Blazers

Having moved out of luxury tax territory by a hair, the Trail Blazers are unlikely to fill their 15th roster spot, which would put them back in the tax. But they do still have a two-way spot to fill — Miller, Rhoden, Cacok, and Sarr would all be eligible to have their Exhibit 10 contracts converted into two-way deals, so there could be an open competition in camp.

Utah Jazz

Having acquired more players than they sent out in the Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, and Patrick Beverley trades, the Jazz now have a roster logjam to clear. They’ll have to trade or waive at least two more players with guaranteed contracts before the regular season tips off.

It’s hard to say at this point whose roster spots might be in danger, since there are still several trade candidates on Utah’s roster, including Beasley, Bogdanovic, Bolmaro, Clarkson, Conley, Gay, and Johnson. If multiple players from that group are on the move in the coming weeks, the issue may ultimately sort itself out (for instance, trading three players in exchange for Russell Westbrook and draft compensation would quickly clear the excess).

Previously:

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Community Shootaround: Washington Wizards

September 5th, 2022 at 9:45am CST by Luke Adams

The Wizards got off to one of the hottest starts of any NBA team in 2021/22, winning 10 of their first 13 games and claiming the No. 1 seed in the East after the first four weeks of the season.

Washington’s impressive run to open the season looked like a vindication of the team’s offseason moves, including its decision to hire Wes Unseld Jr. as head coach and trade Russell Westbrook for a package that included Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell. Head of basketball operations Tommy Sheppard received a promotion and an extension following the club’s 10-3 start.

Things took an unfortunate turn after that, however. The Wizards went just 25-44 the rest of the way, falling not just out of a playoff spot but out of the play-in picture too — they ultimately finished 12th in the Eastern Conference, eight games behind the 10th-place Hornets.

The Wizards’ poor finish to the 2021/22 season doesn’t mean the organization was wrong to hire Unseld, trade Westbrook, or extend Sheppard. After all, the slump could be attributed in large part due to an injury that sidelined star Bradley Beal for over half the season. Still, even when Beal was healthy, there wasn’t enough talent on the court to consider the Wizards a legitimate threat in the East.

It wouldn’t have been out of the question for the Wizards to take a hard look at the roster this offseason, acknowledge its flaws, and commit to a retooling or rebuilding project, the way the Jazz have done. But with Beal eligible for free agency, getting a huge return back in a sign-and-trade deal would have been challenging, and Washington didn’t have a ton of other valuable trade chips to cash in for future first-round picks.

Instead of blowing things up, the Wizards doubled down on the current group, signing Beal to a record-setting five-year contract that will pay him more than $50MM per year and includes a full no-trade clause. The club traded for Monte Morris and Will Barton, signed Delon Wright and Taj Gibson, and used its lottery pick to select guard Johnny Davis.

With those new additions, a healthy Beal, a full season of Kristaps Porzingis, and further development from recent first-rounders like Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, and Corey Kispert, it’s easy to envision the 2022/23 Wizards taking a step forward.

But there’s not a whole lot of margin for error — if Beal and/or Porzingis battle injuries again, there may not be enough firepower on the roster to make up for their absences. And if at least one of Hachimura, Avdija, or Kispert doesn’t take a significant step toward becoming a reliable starter, it’s hard to see where the internal growth is coming from.

We want to know what you think. Is this Wizards team headed in the right direction, or is still a borderline play-in contender that will be treading water until the franchise commits to a more drastic overhaul?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the outlook in Washington!

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Trade Breakdown: Patrick Beverley To Lakers

September 5th, 2022 at 8:01am CST by Rory Maher

This is the tenth installment in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Lakers and Jazz…

On August 25, the Jazz traded Patrick Beverley to the Lakers in exchange for Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson. Both Beverley and Johnson are on expiring deals, while Horton-Tucker has a player option for 2023/24.

The Lakers’ Perspective:

Marc Stein reported last week that the Lakers were initially reluctant to trade Horton-Tucker for Beverley as the front office was emphasizing youth and athleticism to revamp the roster after a disappointing ‘21/22 season that saw L.A. go 33-49 and miss out on the postseason. However, after LeBron James signed an extension, the team felt more comfortable making a win-now move to improve its roster.

Horton-Tucker is still just 21 years old, so he certainly has some untapped upside. The problem is, while he possesses some unique attributes, he needs the ball in his hands to be most effective on offense, and with ball-dominant players like James and Russell Westbrook on the roster, those opportunities were always going to be limited.

Complicating matters further is the fact that Horton-Tucker has been a poor outside shooter to this point (26.9% on three-pointers last season, 27.6% for his career), which hurt the team’s offensive spacing. He has the tools to be a good defender, but he was inconsistent on that end as well, which isn’t unusual for a young player.

Johnson was mainly included in the deal for salary-matching purposes, as the Lakers needed to add another $75K to Horton-Tucker’s salary to make the trade legal. He played with good energy and effort last season, but he’s a very limited offensive player who is about league-average defensively, so it’s not like he’ll be sorely missed.

At 34 years old, Beverley is probably past his peak, but he’s certainly a short-term upgrade and a much better fit for the way the Lakers’ roster is constructed. He’s the exact type of guard who has typically thrived alongside James throughout his career, fitting the mold of a three-and-D player who doesn’t need the ball to be effective.

Beverley certainly isn’t the most talented scorer, with a career average of 8.8 points per game. But while he has his share of limitations on offense, he’s self-aware and typically doesn’t try to do too much, which is a valuable trait in a role player.

Beverley holds a career mark of 37.8% from beyond the arc, which is above average, and he’s even better from the corners, nailing 40% of those shots in his career. Corner threes are particularly important for floor spacing, so he should help in that regard.

Beverley also takes care of the ball, posting a 3.54-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in ’21/22, and is a tenacious offensive rebounder, creating extra possessions seemingly out of nowhere.

Defense has been Beverley’s calling card throughout his career and is the main reason why he’s about to enter his 11th NBA season. He has been selected to three All-Defensive Teams, the last coming in ’19/20, and though he isn’t quite as good as he once was, he’s still a major backcourt upgrade on that end.

Beverley also brings a relentless energy, effort, toughness and competitiveness that’s hard to quantify with stats, but is certainly impactful. That’s part of the reason why his teams have made the postseason in eight of his ten seasons.

A hard-nosed (at times reckless) playing style has led to Beverley sustaining several injuries, which has to be a significant concern for the Lakers after having James and Anthony Davis miss significant chunks of the last two seasons. Over the past five years, Beverley has appeared in just 235 of a possible 390 regular season contests, which is just over 60%.

Beverley’s expiring deal will pay him $13MM in ‘22/23, and the Lakers will hold his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to go over the salary cap to re-sign him next summer if both parties are amenable to that arrangement.

The Jazz’s Perspective:

Prioritizing minutes for an aging veteran when your team is in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild — a direction made even more evident by trading Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland — doesn’t make sense, and the Jazz realized that pretty quickly, moving on from Beverley less than two months after landing him in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster with Minnesota.

That’s not to say Utah didn’t value Beverley, but he’s a player who actually helps you win games, and the Jazz appear to be trying to lose as many games as possible next season to get the best chance of landing a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama.

What does make sense is taking an upside swing on a developmental prospect like Horton-Tucker, who was one of the youngest players in his draft class (46th overall pick in 2019). Now entering his fourth season, Horton-Tucker is still younger than several incoming rookies, including No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji, whom the Jazz just acquired in the Mitchell deal.

As previously mentioned, Horton-Tucker (also known as THT) has some unique qualities. Standing 6’4″ and weighing 234 pounds, he has a broad-shouldered, strong frame. He also possesses a freakish 7’1″ wingspan, and the combination of his strength and length allows him to do some things that other players are not physically capable of.

Just because he was a poor fit with the Lakers doesn’t mean he lacks talent, and Horton-Tucker certainly has a chance to be a better player than Beverley ever was. The Jazz are betting that giving him a runway for a bigger role might bring out the best in him, allowing Utah to reap the long-term rewards.

Horton-Tucker is not a three-and-D player, but that’s what the Lakers needed him to be, so that’s the role they asked him to play. He is, however, a skilled play-maker, showcasing a knack for getting into the lane with an array of behind-the-backs, crossovers and spin moves. He’s particularly adept at changing pace on the fly, which is a difficult skill to teach.

A solid but unspectacular athlete, Horton-Tucker’s primary attribute at this point is his ability to get to his spots, especially around the basket, though he hasn’t been the best at converting when he does — he shot 57% at the rim last season, which was in the 31st percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Like Beverley, Horton-Tucker is a Chicago native who plays with a physical edge and a level of fearlessness that’s impressive to watch.

He has shown some nascent ability as a passer as well, especially off a live dribble, and could realistically average five-plus assists for Utah considering the lack of quality passers on the roster, especially if Mike Conley is traded. Horton-Tucker is also a solid off-ball cutter, something he was able to showcase a bit more a couple of years ago when playing with Marc Gasol, an excellent passing center who could space the floor.

Horton-Tucker needs work defensively — he has the physical tools to be effective, but he’s prone to mistakes, especially off the ball. He’s often slow to rotate as a help defender and is a little reach-happy on the ball, but those are fixable errors.

THT has an $11MM player option for ‘23/24, and there’s a reasonable chance that he picks it up, depending on how he performs next season. The Jazz will have his Bird rights if they’d like to keep him around.

The eighth pick of the 2015 draft, Johnson hasn’t developed into the player scouts thought he could be, and he’s unlikely to have much of a role for Utah. With the Mitchell deal complete, the Jazz will have 17 players on guaranteed deals, and that number needs to be cut down to 15 by the start of the regular season, so Johnson’s spot on the roster is far from secure.

Neither Horton-Tucker (-0.5) nor Johnson (-0.2) made much of an impact on winning last season, with both ranking in the bottom 100 in the league in value over replacement player, per Basketball-Reference. Beverley, meanwhile, recorded a career-best 1.7 VORP, good for 65th in the NBA.

There are several other advanced stats that indicate the same thing, with Beverley posting more win shares (4.1) than THT and Johnson combined (2.9). Beverley’s estimated plus/minus was +2.0, which ranked 68th in the league, per DunksAndThrees.com, while Horton-Tucker (-2.4, ranked 327th) and Johnson (-1.2, ranked 248th) were both net negatives by that metric. I could go on, but you get the point.

Ultimately, considering the Jazz are trying to lose in ’22/23 and the Lakers are trying to win, it was a logical trade for both sides.

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