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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

September 9th, 2022 at 11:42am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Central division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Previous voting results:

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
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Extension Candidate: De’Andre Hunter

September 9th, 2022 at 7:46am CST by Rory Maher

This is the fourth installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at an oft-injured wing with tantalizing two-way potential.

Rundown:

The No. 4 overall pick of the 2019 draft after two college seasons at Virginia, De’Andre Hunter had a prominent role as a rookie for the Hawks, but his results were a little uneven, which is normal for first-year players. In 63 games (32.0 MPG) in 2019/20, he averaged 12.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG on .410/.355/.764 shooting (.521 true shooting percentage).

Hunter clearly worked hard on his game entering year two, as he got off to a great start, averaging 17.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG on a stellar .517/.375/.877 (.646 true) shooting line in 17 games (33.3 MPG). Unfortunately, things went downhill from there, as right knee discomfort and swelling ultimately led to arthroscopic surgery and multiple setbacks, causing Hunter to miss all but five games the rest of the regular season.

He did appear in all five games of Atlanta’s first-round playoff victory over the Knicks, but didn’t look like the same player. Hunter underwent surgery to repair a torn lateral meniscus in the same knee shortly thereafter.

Last season, Hunter had a slow start, not quite looking like himself after the meniscus tear. On November 8, he sustained a tendon injury on his right wrist, which required surgery and caused him to miss eight weeks of action (26 games).

Overall, he averaged 13.4 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .442/.379/.765 shooting (.547 true) in 53 games (29.8 MPG). The Hawks were very banged up at the end of the year, causing them to be overmatched in their first-round playoff loss to the Heat, but Hunter was the team’s best performer – he averaged 21.2 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .557/.462/.800 shooting (.674 true).

Strengths:

During that 17-game stretch to start ’20/21, Hunter legitimately looked like he could be a future All-Star, using his length and athleticism to aggressively drive to the hoop. Even though the Hawks lost the game, he had a memorable performance against the eventual champion Bucks, scoring a career-high 33 points on 13-of-21 shooting while fearlessly attacking Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Hunter has plus size for a forward at 6’8″ and 225 pounds with a 7’2″ wingspan, and he’s versatile on both ends of the court. He’s often tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ best perimeter scorers, as Atlanta has lacked reliable wing defenders.

The 24-year-old was a high draft choice in large part due to his defensive upside, and while he shows flashes of being a plus defender, he lacks the consistency necessary to be a true defensive force. The talent is definitely there though, and that’s something you can’t teach.

Hunter gets to the free throw line at a good rate, can score in a variety of ways, and was an above-average three-point shooter in ‘21/22 (37.9%). Nearly all of his attempts from long distance came via catch-and-shoot, and he converted a career-best 40.5% from the corners.

Improvement Areas:

Consistency is the name of the game for Hunter. He has shown flashes of high-level two-way potential, but he hasn’t been able to string it together consistently for any sustained period of time.

Losing time to injuries is out of his control, but it has certainly had an effect on his performance the past couple of years. In order to land a big pay day, he needs to prove that he can stay healthy.

Hunter is a below-average rebounder, and there’s no reason he can’t be better at his size. An average of 3.3 boards per game is unacceptably low for a forward. Even though he’s a versatile scorer, he only shot 55% at the rim last season — 23rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

He’s also a poor play-maker, recording more turnovers (69) than assists (68) in ‘21/22. Hunter’s 6% assist percentage was only in the 12th percentile. There’s a lot of room for improvement there.

Conclusion:

Out of all the players eligible for rookie scale extensions in 2022, Hunter’s market value is one of the most difficult to gauge due to his injury history and inconsistent play. He definitely has a lot to prove in the upcoming season, both for his own future and to the Hawks.

They’re very different players, but maybe someone like Thunder wing Luguentz Dort works as a point of comparison for Hunter – Dort signed a five-year, $82.5MM deal with a fifth-year team option as a restricted free agent this offseason. Dort is a better defender, but Hunter has more offensive upside.

Since he isn’t getting a maximum-salary deal, Atlanta can only offer Hunter four years in an extension. Dort got $64.78MM guaranteed over four years, with an additional $1MM in annual unlikely incentives.

Sources told Jake Fisher of Bleacher Report in July that the Hawks and Hunter’s agents were approximately $20MM apart in their extension discussions. Making an educated guess, I would wager Atlanta was offering around $60MM – perhaps with additional incentives tied to games played – and Hunter was looking for around $80MM.

Hunter could easily outplay a $15MM-per-year contract, but he hasn’t shown he’s worth even that much yet. Analytics are really low on Hunter’s game – I’m more bullish on his potential, assuming he can stay healthy.

I don’t see any reason for the Hawks to budge in what they’re willing to offer, and given his injury history, there are valid reasons for Hunter to consider signing a relatively team-friendly deal. If he turns down an extension and has a breakout fourth season, that’s a good problem to have for Atlanta, because he’d be providing excess value on the final year of his rookie deal and would make it an easier decision to invest in him long term.

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Poll: Dennis Schröder’s Next Team

September 8th, 2022 at 2:41pm CST by Rory Maher

Veteran point guard Dennis Schröder, currently playing for the German national team in EuroBasket action, is the only unrestricted free agent left on our list of the top 50 NBA free agents of 2022.

It’s hard to believe we’re only a year-and-a-half removed from Schröder reportedly turning down an extension from the Lakers worth $80MM+. Last summer he had to settle for a one-year, $5.9MM deal with the Celtics, who eventually traded him to the Rockets in February.

In 64 games (28.7 MPG) split between Boston and Houston during the 2021/22 season, Schröder averaged 13.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 4.6 APG on .431/.344/.853 shooting — solid production. Still, when a team trades you away in the middle of an extended hot streak and goes on to make the NBA Finals, that raises some red flags.

Schröder, who turns 29 next week, remains a talented scorer and is a plus ball-handler who can set up both himself and teammates. His ability to create shots is a valuable skill. And it’s not as though he’s past his peak physically — he’s still one of the quickest players in the league.

He’s not without flaws, however, as he’s an inconsistent outside shooter whose defensive effort often fluctuates. He also skews a little on the selfish side, preferring to look for his own shot, even though he’s a good passer when he’s so inclined.

More than two months into free agency, there aren’t many teams with roster openings, so the odds of Schröder landing a deal for more than the veteran’s minimum seem remote. Having said that, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t find a team before training camps start later this month.

Things have been pretty quiet on the rumors front. Marc Stein reported that the Lakers were giving “legit consideration” to signing Schröder a couple of weeks ago, but then they traded for Patrick Beverley, making a reunion more uncertain. A couple of high-ranking Mavericks executives recently watched Schröder compete, and Stein subsequently wrote the Mavs have considered adding a veteran ball-handler, but Dallas might not want to carry a 15th roster spot right away due to the luxury tax. All the other rumors about Schröder are months old.

Even though they haven’t been linked in any way that I’m aware of, the Hornets might make the most sense as a potential match. They only have 13 players on guaranteed deals and don’t have a backup point guard behind LaMelo Ball at the moment.

The Suns and Hawks could also be a fit. Both teams only have 13 players on guaranteed deals. Phoenix has Chris Paul and Cameron Payne at the point, but Paul is one of the oldest players in the league and Payne is coming off a down season. Schröder spent his first five seasons with the Hawks, but they already have Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and Aaron Holiday, so minutes might be harder to come by there.

With training camps less than three weeks away, we should learn pretty soon where Schröder will be headed — assuming he finds a team. In the meantime, we want to know what you think. Which team will sign Schröder in the coming weeks?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

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Players Currently Affected By Trade Restrictions

September 8th, 2022 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA has no shortage of rules affecting which players can and can’t be traded at any given time, which complicates our understanding of which players are truly moveable. That’s especially true leading up to the regular season, when players who recently signed free agent contracts, extensions, and rookie contracts all face different sets of trade restrictions.

In an effort to clear things up, we’re looking today at which players around the NBA are currently affected by trade restrictions of one kind or another. Let’s dive in…

Recently signed free agents

For the most part, a free agent who signed a contract in the offseason is ineligible to be traded until December 15.

Currently, our list of players who will become trade-eligible on December 15 features 78 names, including Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, the most notable free agent to change teams this summer. But the list is technically even longer than that, since we haven’t included players who signed Exhibit 10 contracts. Most of those players will be waived by opening night, but if they earn spots on regular season rosters, the December 15 trade restriction would apply to them too.

It’s worth noting that Knicks big man Jericho Sims falls into this category too, despite not being a free agent this summer. A player who has his two-way deal converted to a standard contract during the offseason, like Sims did, also doesn’t become trade-eligible until December 15.

A select group of recently signed free agents won’t become trade-eligible until January 15. These 20 players all meet a specific set of criteria: Not only did they re-sign with their previous team this offseason, but they got a raise of at least 20%, their salary is worth more than the minimum, and their team was over the cap, using Bird or Early Bird rights to sign them.

A free agent who signs after September 15 won’t become trade-eligible until three months after his signing date. So, if a player signs with a team on September 29, he’d become eligible for a trade on December 29. Because the 2023 trade deadline is set to land on February 9, a free agent who signs a contract after November 9 won’t be trade-eligible this season.

The above rules apply to players who sign standard contracts, not two-way deals. A player who signs a two-way contract is ineligible to be traded for 30 days. So Malcolm Hill, who signed with the Bulls on Wednesday, will become trade-eligible on October 7. Two-way players are virtually never traded anyway though.

Recently signed draft picks

Like a player who signs a two-way contract, a draftee who signs his first NBA contract is ineligible to be traded for 30 days. Currently, this restriction only impacts Raptors second-rounder Christian Koloko, who signed on August 26 and will become trade-eligible on September 25.

The rest of this year’s draftees can currently be traded. That list includes all the players besides Koloko who have signed, since more than 30 days have passed since their officially completed their deals.

It also includes those players who remain unsigned, such as E.J. Liddell or Kendall Brown, since their draft rights can be traded until they sign their contract. Once they officially sign, they’ll become trade-ineligible for 30 days.

Players with veto ability

Wizards star Bradley Beal is the only NBA player who has a genuine no-trade clause in his contract, but several other players have the ability to veto trades this season due to various quirks of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The most notable of those players is Suns center Deandre Ayton, whose consent is required because Phoenix matched his offer sheet from the Pacers this offseason. Sixers guard James Harden also has the ability to veto a trade in 2022/23.

The rest of the list, which consists of 16 more names, is significantly less star-studded — Drew Eubanks, Nathan Knight, Theo Pinson, and Luca Vildoza are among the players who can veto trades this season, for example.

Players who have signed veteran extensions

A player who signs a rookie scale extension becomes more difficult to trade due to the “poison pill provision,” but he could theoretically be moved immediately.

That’s not necessarily the case for a player who signs a veteran contract extension. A player who signs a veteran extension that locks him up for more than three total years (including his current contract) and/or includes a raise higher than 5% become ineligible to be traded for the next six months.

With the help of our extension trackers, here are the players currently affected by that rule, along with the dates they’ll become trade-eligible:

Five players who signed veteran extensions in recent months received new contracts that didn’t exceed three total years or include raises greater than 5%, meaning they remain eligible to be traded. Those players are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets), Robert Covington (Clippers), Thaddeus Young (Raptors), Gary Harris (Magic), and Taurean Prince (Timberwolves).

Players who have signed Designated Veteran extensions

A Designated Veteran contract is also known as a “super-max” deal — it’s a maximum-salary contract that starts at 35% of the cap instead of 30% because the player has met certain performance criteria before achieving 10 years of NBA service.

A player who signs a Designated Veteran contract or extension can’t be traded for one full year after his signing date.

Three star players have signed Designated Veteran extensions this offseason. Here are those players, along with the dates they’ll become trade-eligible:

Players affected by aggregation restrictions

When a team trades for a player via salary-matching or using an exception (ie. not by absorbing the player into cap room), that team can’t “aggregate” the player in another trade for two months. Aggregating a player means combining his salary with another player’s for matching purposes.

For instance, when the Jazz acquired Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Leandro Bolmaro in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster on July 6, they were prohibited from aggregating any of those players in a second deal until at least September 6. Utah ultimately moved Beverley on August 25 and was able to do so because he was the only outgoing player in that trade.

Since most of this offseason’s trades were completed in late June or early July, this restriction is no longer affecting many players. By the end of the coming weekend, only a small handful of players will still be ineligible to be aggregated in a trade. Here are those players, along with the dates they’ll become eligible to be aggregated:

Any player who is traded this season after December 9 (without being acquired via cap room) won’t be eligible to be flipped prior to the trade deadline in a second deal that aggregates his salary with another player’s.

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Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson

September 8th, 2022 at 7:46am CST by Rory Maher

This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.

Rundown:

The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.

Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.

Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).

His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).

Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.

Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).

Strengths:

Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.

While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.

Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).

Improvement areas:

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.

Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.

However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.

Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.

Conclusion:

Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).

If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.

The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.

If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

September 7th, 2022 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll continue our series today with the Southwest division…

Memphis Grizzlies

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans

  • 2021/22 record: 36-46
  • Over/under for 2022/23: 44.5 wins
  • Major offseason moves:

Houston Rockets

San Antonio Spurs

Previous voting results:

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
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Poll: Russell Westbrook’s Future

September 7th, 2022 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

After the first wave of free agency ended and teams went on vacation following Summer League play in July, four major trade candidates lingered on the market: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Donovan Mitchell, and Russell Westbrook.

Following another month of rumors, Durant ultimately rescinded his trade request, which seemingly resolved Irving’s situation as well — neither Net is going anywhere, at least for the time being. Mitchell was subsequently sent from Utah to Cleveland, leaving Westbrook as the lone big-name trade candidate who seems like a decent bet to be on the move before training camps open.

The Lakers‘ motivation for seeking a new home for Westbrook has been well documented. The former MVP’s first year in Los Angeles wasn’t a success, as his ball-dominant style and inability to stretch the floor proved incompatible with LeBron James and Anthony Davis during the rare instances when all three stars were healthy and shared the court.

Westbrook also appeared unwilling to take responsibility for his part in the Lakers’ struggles. Despite Frank Vogel‘s insistence on sticking with the point guard, who started all 78 games he played and was part of nearly every closing lineup, Westbrook told reporters at season’s end that he wasn’t given a “fair chance” to be himself and suggested that Vogel had “an issue” with him.

While the Lakers’ disaster of a 2021/22 season made it clear that Westbrook would be on the trade block this summer, his $47MM+ cap hit hasn’t made it easy to find a taker. Los Angeles would love to be able to send Westbrook’s expiring contract to a team in exchange for two or three useful rotation players, but any trade partner open to taking on Westbrook is believed to be seeking multiple first-round picks — at least one for absorbing Westbrook’s salary and another for sending out a couple useful players.

The Lakers only have two tradable first-round picks (2027 and 2029) and have thus far been unwilling to include both of them in any deal that doesn’t involve Irving. The rebuilding Pacers (Myles Turner, Buddy Hield) and Jazz (Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley) remain logical matches for the Lakers, since both teams have the ability to trade productive veterans and absorb Westbrook’s money.

But for a deal to be made, the Lakers will either need to relent and give up both their future first-rounders or convince a trade partner to take just one of them (along with perhaps a couple second-rounders and/or first-round swap rights in another year).

With no indication there has been much traction on the Westbrook trade front, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham and owner Jeanie Buss have been talking enthusiastically about the ways they believe Westbrook can fit and succeed with a new-look 2022/23 Lakers team.

I have no doubt that Ham, a first-time head coach who will bring a fresh perspective to the franchise, genuinely believes he can make it work, but it’s hard not to interpret the Lakers’ optimistic comments to the press as spin — if potential trade partners believe L.A. is OK with hanging onto Westbrook and hoping for the best, perhaps those trade partners will reduce their asking prices to get something done.

With training camps less than three weeks away, we should learn pretty soon how serious the Lakers are about retaining Westbrook. In the meantime, we want to know what you think. Will Westbrook open the season as a Laker or be traded in the coming weeks?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

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Extension Candidate: Jordan Poole

September 7th, 2022 at 7:55am CST by Rory Maher

This is the second installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a player who was a key contributor to a championship team in 2022.

Rundown:

The 28th overall pick of the 2019 draft after two years at Michigan, Jordan Poole had a larger-than-expected role as a rookie due to major injuries to Warriors stars Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily in his first pro season, appearing in 57 games (22.4 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG on a ghastly .333/.279/.798 shooting line. His .454 true shooting percentage was last in the entire NBA, as was his -6.6 box plus/minus.

Things weren’t much better for Poole during the first few months of his second season in 2020/21, appearing in just 15 of Golden State’s first 36 games and receiving scant playing time (9.6 MPG). Since he wasn’t getting much NBA run, he was sent to the G League in February 2021 to work on his craft.

Poole displayed a newfound confidence and looked like a completely different player upon his return a month later, emerging as a major spark-plug scorer off the bench. Over his final 36 games (23.5 MPG), he averaged 14.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG on .433/.354/.870 shooting (.579 true).

In year three, Poole built upon the foundation he laid during that strong second half surge, appearing in 76 games (30.0 MPG) while averaging 18.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.0 APG on .448/.364/.925 shooting. He started 51 of those contests in the backcourt alongside Curry.

Out of all guards who averaged at least 18 points per night, Poole ranked fifth in true shooting percentage at .598 – an excellent mark. His .925 free throw percentage led the NBA.

More importantly, he was also a standout performer in the postseason, averaging 17.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 3.8 APG on .508/.391/.915 shooting (.654 true) in 22 games (five starts, 27.5 MPG) during Golden State’s title run.

Strengths:

Poole is an extremely shifty ball-handler who can create space for himself and teammates with ease. While he has a strong first step, what really separates Poole from other ball-handlers is how quickly he can change direction and how decisive he is – if he gains even a slight advantage, he goes straight to the hole.

Another element of Poole’s ball-handling that’s really impressive is that he has counter moves upon counter moves. He can string together a combination of intricate dribble moves in just a second or two, and even if the defender stops the first couple, he might unleash a crossover that leads them reaching on the third.

The 23-year-old is just as comfortable dribbling with his left hand as his right, and doesn’t really show a preference, which makes it really difficult to try to guess which way he’s going to go.

Poole isn’t the most explosive athlete vertically, but he’s very fast with the ball in his hands and excels in the open court. He’s a talented finisher around the basket, converting 62% of his looks at the rim — an above average mark (55th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com). Many of those shots are very high-difficulty attempts as well.

Poole is an excellent scorer from all over the court. While he didn’t attempt many mid-rangers, he knocked down 46% of those looks (78th percentile). A big part of why he was so efficient is because the majority of his shots came either at the rim or from deep – he also gets to the line at a decent clip.

He employs side-steps and step-backs to create space for three-pointers, and 3.0 of his 7.6 attempts per game from deep came off the bounce, per NBA.com. He’s slithery coming off screens, and he’s very smart about using the screen a second time to free himself for a better look or a drive.

As with all of his teammates, Poole certainly benefits from all the attention Curry draws, but he’s perfectly capable of scoring in bunches on his own. During the last 12 games of the regular season, when Curry was injured, Poole averaged 25.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 6.2 APG on .421/.374/.954 shooting (.586 true) and didn’t look out of place as a primary option.

Poole is also a solid passer when he’s so inclined, though he definitely has a score-first mentality – his 21% assist percentage was in the 80th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Improvement Areas:

Poole has been a below average defensive player to this point in his career, and in order for him to take another leap as a player, he needs to get better.

According to NBA.com, opponents shot 1.7% better than their expected field goal percentage with Poole defending them — the second-worst mark on the Warriors — and that’s with the team trying to hide him on weaker offensive players. That figure rose to 4.7% better than expected in the playoffs.

Poole doesn’t really excel at anything on defense. He isn’t strong individually or as a help defender, and he doesn’t force many turnovers (0.8 steal and 0.3 block per night).

Poole was definitely a beneficiary of having several strong defenders around him – the Warriors had the second-best defense during the regular season, and that was their main collective strength in winning the championship.

He’s also a below average rebounder, pulling down just 3.4 per night, and at 6’4” he could stand to bump that number up closer to five, though it’s something he’s never been great at, even in college.

Another area of Poole’s game that needs work is his decision making. His 1.39-to-1 assist to turnover ratio in ‘21/22 was quite poor for a high usage player, especially someone who handles the ball as much as he does.

Lastly, while Poole has very deep range and certainly doesn’t lack in confidence, his 36.4% mark from three was only one percent above league average. If that number rises even a little bit, it would help his already very good efficiency.

Conclusion:

Poole’s statistics last season were fairly similar to Tyler Herro’s, and like Herro, I think Poole is almost certain to receive a nine-figure payday on his next contract. Since he was a late first-rounder, he has “only” earned a little over $6MM to this point. The prospect of receiving $100MM+, assuming the Warriors offer it, would undoubtedly be appealing.

When comparing Poole, Herro and the other young guards who set the market value this summer (Anfernee Simons, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett all received $100-107MM in guaranteed money over four years), I personally think Poole might have the highest upside. But that doesn’t mean he’ll get the most money of the group, particularly in a theoretical extension.

The primary reason the Warriors might be hesitant to give Poole a lucrative extension is that they’re already a record-setting taxpayer, and they’d owe significantly more in taxes than the actual value of his salary. It would also lock in an extremely expensive roster for years to come.

There’s an argument to be made that Poole is a luxury, not a necessity, especially with Thompson healthy for a full season – I don’t buy that argument, but it’s not entirely baseless. The front office might have to choose between paying just one or two of Poole, Draymond Green or Andrew Wiggins, and all were very valuable contributors last season who are good at different things, so it would be a tough call.

If Poole bets on himself and declines an offer for, say, $110MM — which would carry a good deal of risk since he doesn’t have a long track record (plus injuries are always a concern) — there’s a chance he could get a max deal as a restricted free agent in 2023, which is projected to be worth $142,975,000 over four years.

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Extension Candidate: Tyler Herro

September 6th, 2022 at 2:54pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the first installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re getting underway with a look at the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.

Rundown:

The No. 13 overall pick of the 2019 draft after one year at Kentucky, Tyler Herro made an immediate impact in 55 games (27.4 minutes) as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists on .428/.389/.870 shooting for a Heat team that came within two games of a championship. He had a strong playoff run in the Orlando bubble, bumping those averages up to 16.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 3.7 APG on .433/.375/.870 shooting in 21 contests (33.6 minutes).

Herro improved his counting stats during his second season in ‘20/21, averaging 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, though his efficiency declined slightly, with a .439/.360/.803 shooting line. As opposed to his strong postseason showing as a rookie, Herro, like the rest of Miami’s roster, struggled mightily while being swept by the Bucks in the first round, averaging just 9.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 1.8 APG on .316/.316/1.000 shooting in four games (23.3 minutes).

Herro emerged as the league’s most dangerous bench scorer last season, winning the Sixth Man of the Year award after appearing in 66 games (32.6 minutes) while averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists on .447/.399/.868 shooting. However, he once again struggled in the playoffs with defenses more focused on slowing him down, averaging 12.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on .409/.229/.926 shooting in 15 contests (25.4 minutes).

Strengths:

Among players who officially qualified, Herro ranked 21st in the NBA in points per game last season. He is someone opposing defenses are forced to game-plan against.

His primary skill is that he’s an excellent shooter from all over the court, ranking in the 63rd percentile from mid-range, 87th on threes, and 87th from the free throw line, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The threat of Herro’s shooting creates space for teammates, which is really important for a Heat team that struggles at times to space the floor. For as valuable as they are at basically every other aspect of basketball, neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo is a three-point threat, so Miami’s offense can be a bit crowded at times, especially in half court settings.

Herro isn’t just a shooter either, as he shows some impressive play-making chops at times. He’s capable of creating high-quality looks for himself and others on both scripted plays and on the fly.

He posted a 21% assist percentage last season, which was in the 79th percentile of all players. He has good vision and is capable of making difficult one-handed cross-court passes, though he definitely looks for his own shot more often than not.

Herro is capable of acting as a lead ball-handler in spot minutes, and while he isn’t the greatest decision-maker yet (1.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he shows flashes of being able to handle those duties. He’s also a solid rebounder, especially on the defensive glass, with a 15% defensive rebounding rate (59th percentile).

Improvement Areas:

Physical limitations will likely always be an issue for Herro, which is something that’s mostly out of his control. Though he has decent height for a shooting guard at 6’5”, his wingspan is only 6’4”, he isn’t the greatest athlete, and he isn’t the strongest player, leading to him getting pushed around at times.

Those limitations show up in two key areas. The first is that he’s a below-the-rim finisher, and while he has good touch on floaters, he rarely gets all the way to the rim.

According to Basketball-Reference, only 13.7% of Herro’s shots came within three feet of the basket, compared to 27.9% of his looks from 10 feet to the three-point line. He prefers to shoot pull-ups rather than initiating contact in the paint.

The fact that he attempts so many mid-rangers and doesn’t get to the line a ton hurts his overall efficiency (of the 27 players who qualified for the scoring title and averaged at least 20 points, Herro was 25th in free throw attempts). His true shooting percentage (56.1%) was a little below league average (56.6%) last season.

The second area that Herro really needs to improve upon is his defense, which has been particularly problematic in the playoffs. He has been repeatedly targeted as a weak defensive link in each of his three postseason trips.

Opponents shot better (45.7%) than expected (44.8%) with Herro defending them in the regular season, and that gap grew during the playoffs (rivals shot 48.9% versus 46% expected), per NBA.com. And that’s with Herro coming off the bench and the Heat trying to hide him on the opposing teams’ weakest offensive players.

Out of 67 players who averaged at least 32 minutes and appeared in at least 30 games, Herro ranked 62nd in deflections per game with 1.2. He rarely draws charges, and averaged less than one stock (steals plus blocks) per game last season, which is quite poor (0.7 SPG and 0.1 BPG). His steal percentage (1.0%) ranked in the 21st percentile of all players, and his block percentage (0.4%) was in the ninth percentile, per DunksAndThrees.

Conclusion:

Young players are inherently polarizing because they are not finished products. When you watch them play, you’re ideally looking for positive traits that can be translated into future success, but it’s easy to lose sight of that if they’re on a good team and play a big role.

That’s especially true of Herro, even if it’s a little unfair to someone who’s still only 22 years old. More than most former first-round picks still on their rookie deals, Herro is an eye-of-the-beholder player due to his distinct strengths and weaknesses, some of which have been put under a bigger spotlight because of his team’s success.

Anfernee Simons set the market for emerging young guards this summer with a four-year, $100MM deal as a restricted free agent. That’s probably Herro’s floor for his next contract.

If the Heat believe Herro will continue improving and is worthy of a significant long-term investment, I could see him exceeding RJ Barrett’s deal with the Knicks, which is reportedly worth $107MM guaranteed over four years with unlikely incentives pushing it up to a possible $120MM.

If they want to continue to keep their options open and possibly deal him during the season, the Heat would be wise not to extend Herro to avoid the “poison pill provision,” which would make trading him extremely difficult. Miami would still have the ability to match any offer he might receive as a restricted free agent in 2023.

The risk of not extending him, assuming his agents are open to accepting less than a maximum-salary deal right now, is there’s a non-zero chance he gets a max as a restricted free agent next summer. A four-year maximum contract from a rival team is projected to be worth $142,975,000.

Giving Herro around $30MM a year would lock in an expensive core of Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Kyle Lowry for at least the next two seasons (Lowry is a free agent in 2024). Having said that, extending Herro now could make moving him in the 2023 offseason easier for the Heat in some ways – he’d already be trade-eligible, and his larger contract would make salary-matching for another star less tricky than it is on the end of his rookie deal.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

September 6th, 2022 at 9:11am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll begin our series today with the Southeast division…

Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Hornets

Washington Wizards

Orlando Magic

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