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Checking In On Roster Situations Around The NBA

October 16th, 2022 at 8:05am CST by Luke Adams

As expected, the majority of the NBA teams made their roster cuts on Saturday and didn’t wait until Monday’s deadline to set their regular season rosters.

Making those moves on Saturday will ensure the players on non-guaranteed contracts clear waivers on Monday, before the regular season begins. If a team had waited until Monday to waive a player on a non-guaranteed deal, he wouldn’t clear waivers until Wednesday, and the team would be on the hook for two days’ worth of his salary.

After yesterday’s flurry of roster moves, here’s where things stand around the NBA…

Teams whose rosters are within the regular season limits

Of the NBA’s 30 teams, 26 have rosters that comply with the league’s regular season roster limits, which state that clubs can’t carry more than 15 players on standard contracts or two on two-way contracts.

The following 16 teams are right at the limit, carrying 15 players on standard contracts and a pair on two-ways:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Chicago Bulls
  • Denver Nuggets
  • Indiana Pacers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Memphis Grizzlies
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New York Knicks
  • Orlando Magic
  • Philadelphia 76ers
  • Sacramento Kings
  • Toronto Raptors
  • Utah Jazz
  • Washington Wizards

Just because these rosters look ready for the regular season doesn’t mean they’re fully locked in. In fact, it would be a surprise if at least one or two of these teams don’t make minor tweaks before Monday’s regular season roster deadline. That could be as simple as swapping out one two-way player for another.

The Sixers are one team to watch, since Michael Foster Jr. – who is on an Exhibit 10 contract – remains on the roster. It’s possible Philadelphia intends to convert him to a two-way deal on Sunday or Monday, which would mean the club would have to waive one of its current two-way players (Charlie Brown Jr. or Julian Champagnie).

The following seven teams are carrying 14 players on standard contracts and two on two-ways:

  • Atlanta Hawks
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Miami Heat
  • Phoenix Suns

The majority of these teams have luxury tax concerns and will open the season with an open roster spot to keep their projected tax bill in check, though that’s not the case for all of them.

The Hornets are well clear of the tax, for instance, and could comfortably make a roster addition if they want to. They may also be leaving a spot open for Miles Bridges, though his NBA future is up in the air due to his legal situation.The Mavericks, meanwhile, are in the tax but are still expected to sign veteran guard Facundo Campazzo before the regular season begins.

We’ve covered 23 teams so far. That leaves three more who are in within the regular season limits. Those teams are as follows:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 14 players on standard contracts and one on a two-way deal.
  • New Orleans Pelicans: 15 players on standard contracts and one on a two-way deal.
  • Portland Trail Blazers: 14 players on standard contracts and one on a two-way deal.

The Trail Blazers are right up against the tax line and will likely keep their 15th spot open to start the season, but the Cavaliers could add a 15th man if they so choose. All three teams could be keeping an eye on players who were waived in recent days as they mull how to fill their open two-way slots.

It’s worth mentioning that the Pelicans still haven’t signed second-round pick E.J. Liddell, who suffered a torn ACL during Summer League play. I suspect New Orleans wants Liddell to sign a G League contract and rehab with the Birmingham Squadron this season so that the team can use its second two-way slot on someone who can actually contribute on the court, but it remains possible that Liddell could fill that two-way opening.

Teams that still have moves to make before Monday’s deadline

The following teams haven’t yet made their necessary cuts to get within the regular season roster limits:

Detroit Pistons: 16 players on standard contracts and two on two-way deals.

The final cut will be pretty simple for the Pistons. They still haven’t officially waived Kemba Walker, but they’re expected to do so before the start of the season. Because Walker’s salary is fully guaranteed, Detroit can afford to wait until Monday instead of waiving him on Saturday, since there will be no additional financial penalty.

Houston Rockets: 17 players on standard contracts and one on a two-way deal.

The Rockets‘ final moves also looks pretty straightforward. Derrick Favors, who has a guaranteed salary, and Darius Days, who is on an Exhibit 10 contract, remain on the team’s roster for now. Favors will reportedly be waived on or before Monday. The deadline to convert players from Exhibit 10 deals to two-way contracts is Monday, so if Houston converts Days to a two-way today or tomorrow, the club will be set for the season.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 17 players on standard contracts and two on two-way deals.

The Thunder will actually have to waive three players, not just two, because they’re also reportedly signing Isaiah Joe to their 15-man roster. David Nwaba is reportedly one of the players being cut, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the other two are also players the Thunder acquired from Houston last month: Trey Burke and Marquese Chriss.

San Antonio Spurs: 16 players on standard contracts and two on two-way deals.

The Spurs will have to waive one player to get to the 15-man limit. Keita Bates-Diop and Tre Jones don’t have fully guaranteed salaries, but the fact that San Antonio didn’t finalize its cuts on Saturday suggests that a player with a guaranteed contract will be the odd man out. Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News reported on Saturday that Joe Wieskamp and Romeo Langford are “on the bubble.”

Reported Exhibit 10 signings that never materialized

There are a handful of free agent contract agreements that were reported at some point during the offseason and, as far as we can tell, never actually materialized. Those agreements are as follows:

These players and teams could still technically finalize these deals on Sunday or Monday, but it’s also very possible they simply fell through for one reason or another. For instance, reporting in September indicated that Montero’s buyout from his Spanish team might be an issue.

We’re no longer assuming that these signings going to happen.

Hoops Rumors’ roster resources

We consistently maintain and update a number of lists and trackers that are designed to help you keep tabs on NBA rosters. They’re all up to date following Saturday’s cuts. Those resources, which can be found on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site or on the “Features” page within our mobile menu, include the following:

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Why Most Teams Will Finalize Roster Cuts On Saturday

October 15th, 2022 at 7:19am CST by Luke Adams

NBA teams have until Monday night to officially set their rosters for the 2022/23 regular season. However, a majority of NBA teams will likely have their rosters ready to go on Saturday, with far more roster cuts expected today than on Sunday or Monday.

Why is that? Well, releasing a player today will ensure he clears waivers on Monday, before the regular season gets underway.

Players who are cut during the season are also paid for each day they spend on waivers, so a player who hits waivers on Sunday and doesn’t clear until the first day of the season on Tuesday would technically earn one day’s worth of pay, even if his salary isn’t guaranteed. A player released on Monday would spend two regular season days on waivers.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

For players with partial or full guarantees, spending the first day or two of the regular season on waivers doesn’t really matter, since they’re getting their full 2022/23 salary (or their partial guarantees) no matter when they’re released. But if a team waits until Monday to cut a player with a non-guaranteed salary, that team will be on the hook for two days’ worth of dead money for the player.

Two days’ worth of dead money won’t exactly break the bank — it would come in around $21K for most minimum-salary players. But a majority of teams already know which players are in and which are out, so there’s no need to take the decision down to the wire on Monday. They’ll make those cuts today and will avoid adding extra cap charges to their books for ’22/23. Even that small amount of savings could make a difference for teams who are right around the tax line or up against a hard cap.

While many teams will make their cuts today, a handful of clubs can afford to wait an extra day or two if they want to, since they’ll be waiving players who have full or partial guarantees.

The Thunder, for instance, have 17 players on fully guaranteed contracts and will need to reduce that number to 15. Waiting until Sunday or Monday to make their cuts won’t affect their cap outlook at all, since all 17 of those players will receive their full-season salaries either way.

Additionally, teams whose final roster moves won’t involve placing a player on waivers can afford to wait until Monday to finalize those moves.

For example, Marc Stein reported (via Twitter) on Friday night that Mavericks guard McKinley Wright is expected to have his Exhibit 10 contract converted into a two-way deal, assuming the club doesn’t make a “late audible” and claim a player who was waived by another team. Dallas could wait until Monday to convert Wright’s contract, since he won’t have to pass through waivers.

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18 Players Still Eligible For Rookie Scale Extensions

October 7th, 2022 at 1:01pm CST by Luke Adams

It has already been a relatively busy offseason for rookie scale contract extensions. Grizzlies guard Ja Morant, Cavaliers guard Darius Garland, and Pelicans forward Zion Williamson all signed five-year, maximum-salary extensions in July, and Spurs swingman Keldon Johnson, Knicks forward RJ Barrett, and Heat guard Tyler Herro have since inked their own deals below the max.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Extension Tracker]

That’s six of 25 rookie scale extension candidates who already have new contracts in place for 2023/24 and beyond. A seventh 2019 first-rounder, guard Ty Jerome, was traded from Oklahoma City to Houston and was subsequently waived. That leaves 18 players still eligible to sign rookie scale extensions before this year’s deadline.

The deadline to sign a rookie scale extension in 2022 is October 17 – the day before the regular season tips off – at 5:00 pm CT. And even though several players from the 2019 draft class have already been extended, it’s a safe bet that more will follow. Last year, for instance, five players signed rookie scale extensions on deadline day.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the remaining extension-eligible players:

Top extension candidates

Every player in this group has shown enough to warrant a multiyear commitment and an eight-figure annual salary.

Poole and Williams played key roles for the two clubs that met in the NBA Finals in the spring, while Johnson did the same for a Suns team that came within two wins of a title in 2021.

Hunter and Washington have each made more than 130 career starts and displayed solid two-way value. Clarke has been a regular rotation piece for a Grizzlies squad that ranked second in the league in regular season wins last season.

Not all of these players will be extended by October 17, but I’d expect all six teams to at least attempt to negotiate extensions. Of the six, Poole has the best case to command a salary near the max (projected to be approximately $150MM across four years). Some other players in this group could get less than half that amount and still be doing well.

Wild cards

It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see any of these six players sign an extension in the next 10 days, but there are some question marks to consider.

Have the Wizards seen enough from Hachimura, who has missed time in each of his three seasons due to injuries, to consider him a long-term piece?

Will the Blazers commit to Little based on what was essentially a seven-week run last season as a productive starter?

Are the Rockets confident that the character concerns that ended Porter’s stint in Cleveland are behind him?

Do the Sixers believe Thybulle’s defensive abilities make up for his offensive shortcomings?

Are Hayes and White high enough on the pecking order in New Orleans and Chicago, respectively, to warrant extensions?

Of these six, I view Little, Porter, and Thybulle as the most likely extension candidates.

Unlikely to be extended

Alexander-Walker, Langford, and Reddish were all traded during the 2021/22 season and didn’t establish themselves as must-extend players during their short stints with their new teams.

Bazley isn’t a lock to make the Thunder’s regular season roster, let alone sign a long-term extension, and Bitadze and Windler have played limited roles since entering the NBA, so it doesn’t make sense to extend them unless they’re willing to accept a bargain-basement price.

It’s too early to say that these players won’t remain with their current teams beyond 2023/24, but they’ll likely have to prove their value on the court this season before they sign new contracts.

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Community Shootaround: Best Potential Landing Spot For Wembanyama

October 5th, 2022 at 9:41am CST by Luke Adams

There were more than 200 NBA scouts and executives in attendance on Tuesday to watch the projected top two picks in the 2023 draft square off, as Victor Wembanyama and French club Metropolitans 92 faced Scoot Henderson and the G League Ignite, writes Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press.

Henderson, widely viewed as the second-best prospect in next year’s draft class, lived up to that billing, racking up 28 points to go along with nine assists and five rebounds. He led the Ignite to a 122-115 victory.

But it was Wembanyama who stole the show, even in a losing cause. The 7’3″ Frenchman poured in 37 points on just 20 field goal attempts, knocking down seven three-pointers and blocking five shots. According to Matt Williams of ESPN (Twitter link), only one player in NBA history has ever made seven threes and blocked five shots in a single game before — Danny Green did it in a triple-overtime game in 2014.

Wembanyama admitted after Tuesday’s game that the longer G League quarters affected his stamina, but his incredible performance showed why he’s considered one of the best NBA prospects in years.

“He was amazing,” Metropolitans 92 coach Vincent Collet said, per Myron Medcalf of ESPN. “What he can do with his size, his agility, mobility, not only his ability to shoot the three, moving very well. He even made a couple of very good passes. I think he (had) a real good game but he also will learn from the first half. He has to fight more because he knows to expect that kind of aggressive defense.”

As Jeremy Woo of SI.com writes, after Tuesday’s game, the idea of tanking for a shot at Wembanyama may look even more appealing to a handful of the NBA teams likely headed for a lottery spot this season.

As we outlined when we conducted our over/under polls last month, the Thunder, Pacers, Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, and Magic are projected to be the NBA’s bottom-feeders in 2022/23. But even the league’s very worst team will only have a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the draft lottery, so a number of clubs will be in play for Wembanyama.

In the wake of Tuesday’s impressive showcase, we want to know what you think. Which lottery-bound team would be the best landing spot for Wembanyama?

You can interpret that question in any way you like — there are, of course, certain teams that might be more ideal for the big man’s development, while certain landing spots would just be flat-out entertaining. For instance, as Tom Ziller notes on his Substack, if the Lakers’ 2023 first-round pick lands at No. 1, the Pelicans would be able to swap their own first-round pick for it and pair Wembanyama with Zion Williamson.

Does that Pelicans scenario sound like one you’d want to play out? Or would you rather see Wembanyama join forces with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren in Oklahoma City; Jalen Green and Jabari Smith in Houston; Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner in Orlando; Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren in Detroit; or Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin in Indiana?

Head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Oldest, Youngest Players On NBA Rosters For 2022/23

September 28th, 2022 at 10:42am CST by Luke Adams

For a third consecutive year, veteran center Udonis Haslem is set to enter the NBA season as the oldest player on any of the league’s 30 rosters. Haslem, who turned 42 in June, was born three-and-a-half years before any other active NBA player and is the only active player in his 40s.

Haslem’s teammate Kyle Lowry is also one of the top 10 oldest players currently on an NBA roster, making the Heat the only team with two players in the top 10.

Lowry is one of several new additions to this list this year due to the fact that many of last year’s oldest players – including Carmelo Anthony, Paul Millsap, Trevor Ariza, and LaMarcus Aldridge – remain unsigned.

It’s possible that one or more of those free agents could sign before opening night or that one or more of the players on the list below could be waived when regular season rosters are set in mid-October, but here’s the current list of the oldest players in the NBA heading into the ’22/23 season:

  1. Udonis Haslem, Heat (born 6/9/1980)
  2. Andre Iguodala, Warriors (born 1/28/1984)
  3. LeBron James, Lakers (born 12/30/1984)
  4. P.J. Tucker, Sixers (born 5/5/1985)
  5. Chris Paul, Suns (born 5/6/1985)
  6. Taj Gibson, Wizards (born 6/24/1985)
  7. Kyle Lowry, Heat (born 3/25/1986)
  8. George Hill, Bucks (born 5/4/1986)
  9. Goran Dragic, Bulls (born 5/6/1986)
  10. Garrett Temple, Pelicans (born 5/8/1986)

Al Horford (Celtics), Rudy Gay (Jazz), and Jeff Green (Nuggets) are among the other NBA veterans who turned 36 years old this year but just missed the cut.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, all of this year’s youngest NBA players were either members of the 2022 draft class or signed as rookie free agents after going undrafted.

The only team with multiple players on the list of the NBA’s 10 youngest players is San Antonio — the Spurs actually have three players on the list and just missed a fourth, as rookie Blake Wesley is about two months too old to qualify for the top 10.

Here are the 10 youngest players currently on NBA rosters:

  1. Jalen Duren, Pistons (born 11/18/2003)
  2. Trevor Keels, Knicks (born 8/26/2003) *
  3. AJ Griffin, Hawks (born 8/25/2003)
  4. Nikola Jovic, Heat (born 6/9/2003)
  5. Shaedon Sharpe, Trail Blazers (born 5/30/2003)
  6. Dominick Barlow, Spurs (born 5/26/2003) *
  7. Ousmane Dieng, Thunder (born 5/21/2003)
  8. Jeremy Sochan, Spurs (born 5/20/2003)
  9. Jabari Smith, Rockets (born 5/13/2003)
  10. Malaki Branham, Spurs (born 5/12/2003)

Note: Players marked with an asterisk (*) are on two-way contracts.

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Decisions On 2023/24 Rookie Scale Team Options

September 27th, 2022 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

While decisions on player and team options for veteran NBA contracts are typically due in June, the deadline to exercise third- and fourth-year team options for players on rookie scale contracts arrives each fall. This year’s deadline for teams to pick up rookie scale options is October 31, 2022.

All the players whose options will be exercised or declined by October 31 are already under contract for the 2022/23 season. Their teams will have to make a decision on whether they want to lock in those players’ contracts beyond the coming season, picking up or turning down team options for the 2023/24 campaign.

For players who signed their rookie scale contracts in 2020 and have already been in the NBA for two years, teams must decide on fourth-year options for 2023/24. For players who just signed their rookie deals last year and only have one season of NBA experience under their belts, teams will already be faced with a decision on third-year options for ’23/24.

In many cases, these decisions aren’t difficult ones. Rookie scale salaries are affordable enough that it usually makes sense to exercise most of these team options, even if a player isn’t a key cog on the roster. And for those players who do have a significant role on a team’s roster, the decision is even easier — it’s not as if the Rockets will consider turning down their option on Jalen Green, for instance.

Still, we’ll wait for a trusted reporter, the NBA, a player (or his agent), or a team itself to confirm that an option is indeed being exercised or declined, and we’ll track that news in this space.

Listed below are all the rookie scale decisions for 2023/24 team options that clubs must make by October 31. This list will be updated through the deadline as teams’ decisions are reported and announced. The salary figures listed here reflect the cap hits for each team.

Here are the NBA’s rookie scale team option decisions for 2023/24 salaries:

Atlanta Hawks

Boston Celtics

Brooklyn Nets

Charlotte Hornets

Chicago Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers

Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

Detroit Pistons

Golden State Warriors

Houston Rockets

Indiana Pacers

Los Angeles Clippers

  • None

Los Angeles Lakers

  • None

Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat

  • None

Milwaukee Bucks

  • None

Minnesota Timberwolves

New Orleans Pelicans

New York Knicks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando Magic

Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

  • None

Portland Trail Blazers

Sacramento Kings

San Antonio Spurs

Toronto Raptors

Utah Jazz

Washington Wizards

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Extension Candidate: Brandon Clarke

September 26th, 2022 at 8:14am CST by Rory Maher

This is the fifth installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at an athletic big man with one of the league’s best floaters.

Rundown:

The No. 21 overall pick of the 2019 draft after three college seasons (the last at Gonzaga), forward Brandon Clarke was technically drafted by the Thunder, who traded his rights to the Grizzlies for the No. 23 overall pick – used on Darius Bazley — and a 2024 second-rounder. Considering Bazley is probably more likely to be waived entering 2022/23 than to receive a rookie scale extension, and Clarke is well-positioned to land a significant payday, it obviously turned out to be a shrewd move by Memphis.

Clarke made an immediate impact in year one, earning a spot on the All-Rookie First Team after averaging 12.1 PPG and 5.9 RPG while shooting 61.8% from the floor and 75.9% from the line in 58 games (22.4 MPG). He even showed the ability to space the floor at times, though on very low volume: he converted 35.9% of his 64 three-point attempts on the season.

In year two, Clarke was still productive, but he developed a hitch in his shooting motion that caused his percentages to fall across the board. In 59 games (24.0 MPG), he averaged 10.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.0 SPG and 0.9 BPG on .517/.260/.690 shooting. He only attempted 1.3 threes per game, so the dip of almost 10% in that category wasn’t nearly as impactful as the 9.3% drop on twos (65.8% to 56.5%).

Instead of focusing on his weaknesses entering his third season in ‘21/22, Clarke chose to enhance his strengths, and the decision paid off with arguably his finest campaign. In 64 games (19.5 MPG), he averaged 10.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 1.1 BPG while shooting 64.4% from the field and 65.4% from the line. He all but eliminated the long-distance shot from his arsenal, attempting just 22 threes (converting five, for a 22.7% rate).

Clarke was instrumental in leading the Grizzlies past the Timberwolves in their first-round playoff series last season, averaging 16.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.7 APG and 1.0 BPG while shooting 67.9% from the floor and 65.7% from the line in six games (29.4 MPG). He also pulled down 3.8 offensive boards per contest, and second-chance points were a huge problem for Minnesota. The Warriors’ elite defense was much more effective in neutralizing Clarke in their second-round series, limiting him to 8.2 PPG and 4.8 RPG with a 51.4% mark from the field and 68.4% from the line in six games (20.0 MPG).

Strengths:

In a league full of incredible athletes, Clarke is a true standout as one of the NBA’s best. He knows how to harness his athleticism to his advantage in multiple ways, making him a unique and versatile player.

Clarke is a matchup problem as a big man because he’s got a very quick first step and has pristine timing for making cuts when defenders aren’t paying attention. He plays with great energy on both ends of the floor, creating extra possessions by hustling for loose balls.

Clarke is a constant pick-and-roll lob threat who is capable of some jaw-dropping dunks. His terrific body control allows him to twist and contort in the air for acrobatic finishes on plays that look like they should be blown up, a rarity for a player his size. Had he qualified, his field goal percentage would have ranked fourth in the NBA last season, and his true shooting percentage (66.0%) ranked fifth.

One of the primary reasons his rim-running is so effective is because Clarke has one of the best floaters in the league. According to Basketball-Reference, 31.1% of Clarke’s shot attempts came from between three and 10 feet and he converted 56.8% of those looks – an elite mark. If a shorter player is on him, he’ll simply rise up over them; if it’s a bigger player, he’ll use his quickness to create space and pull up with feathery-soft touch.

Clarke is an explosive two-footed leaper (40.5″ vertical) with great timing and instincts for blocking shots, ranking in the 93rd percentile of all players in block percentage (4.7%) last season, per DunksAndThrees.com. A quick second jump and a nose for the ball also make him a strong offensive rebounder — his 11% offensive rebounding percentage ranked in the 90th percentile.

Part of what makes the Grizzlies an exciting team to watch is their ability to force a lot of turnovers and excel in transition, and Clarke plays a big part in that. He possesses great speed, is a good enough dribbler to start a fast break, and is an unselfish get-ahead passer in addition to being a tremendous finisher.

He isn’t often asked to make plays for others, but Clarke makes quick, decisive reads with the ball in his hands and is an intelligent ball-mover who rarely turns it over. He posted a 2.53-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in ‘21/22, and his 6.3 turnover percentage would have ranked seventh in the NBA had he qualified, both excellent marks for any player, let alone a power forward.

Finally, Clarke is also a solid defender who can switch across multiple positions. He does a good job limiting his fouls, forcing turnovers (3.1 steals plus blocks per 36 minutes last season), and is an above-average rebounder.

Improvement Areas:

At 6’8” and 215 pounds with a 6’8.25” wingspan, Clarke is built more like a plus-sized wing than a big man. While he’s able to compensate to an extent with his non-stop motor, top-notch athleticism and court awareness, he’s still at a size disadvantage the majority of the time.

There aren’t many players with the post games to exploit Clarke’s relative lack of size, but it’s definitely problematic when the situations arise. He’s stronger than his frame suggests, but he simply lacks the bulk to compete with behemoths down low.

The hitch in Clarke’s jump shot never went away, with his free throw percentage dropping in each of the past two seasons. As deadly as his floater is, its range is still limited, which means that he functions more like a center on offense even though he spends the majority of time at power forward, making him somewhat matchup dependent.

Clarke benefited from the versatility of Kyle Anderson and Jaren Jackson Jr. as frontcourt partners who could make plays and space the floor. However, Memphis let Anderson walk in free agency (to Minnesota) and Jackson is injured to start the season, so Clarke may have to fend for himself in ‘22/23.

Even though he’s the best reserve big man on the roster, Clarke isn’t necessarily an obvious replacement for Jackson in the starting lineup alongside another non-shooter in Steven Adams. It will be interesting to see how head coach Taylor Jenkins toggles the lineups, because he has typically staggered the minutes for Clarke and Adams due to spacing concerns – the two only shared the court for 165 minutes over 32 games last season, 10 fewer minutes than the garbage time pairing of Jarrett Culver and Xavier Tillman, per NBA.com.

Clarke is a decent ball-handler for a player who plays almost exclusively in the frontcourt, but he’s not particularly adept for someone his size. If he tightened his handle, he’d be able to exploit his speed advantage even more.

Conclusion:

Clarke has proven to be a high-level role player for the Grizzlies and a steal at No. 21 overall. The fact that Memphis didn’t re-sign Anderson in free agency could be a sign that Clarke is in the team’s long-term plans, and for good reason.

His energy, athleticism, efficiency and high basketball IQ have made Clarke of the league’s best bargains on his rookie deal, which paid him a combined $12.15MM over four years (ending in ‘22/23). He could equal or surpass that total in annual average salary on his next contract.

At 26 years old, Clarke is one of the oldest players in the 2019 draft class. Some might say that’s a negative. Yet despite coming off the bench, he has led the class in win shares and trails only teammate Ja Morant in value over replacement player through three seasons, per Basketball-Reference.

Another positive about Clarke being a few years older than his draft peers is that he doesn’t need more time to develop — he’s already very good — and he’s about to enter his prime years. That’s not to imply he can’t continue to improve, but instead of paying him for what he might become, whichever team ends up paying him (he’ll be a restricted free agent if he doesn’t sign an extension) will be getting a player who already contributes a lot to winning.

If I were representing Clarke, I would point to the deals signed by Marvin Bagley III (three years, $37.5MM) and Chris Boucher (three years, $35.25MM) as a baseline, because Clarke is a more well-rounded and better all-around player than both of them have been over the past three seasons.

Clarke’s game is probably most similar to Richaun Holmes’ — another undersized, energetic and athletic big man with an elite floater who’s also a great finisher. Holmes got $46.5MM over four years in the 2021 offseason. However, I think Clarke is more valuable than Holmes as well, because he’s more versatile on both ends of the court, fouls less, and is a much better passer and decision-maker (Holmes is stronger and a better shooter).

Mitchell Robinson’s four-year, $60MM deal seems a little high for Clarke, but it depends on how the Grizzlies value him. If he puts up big numbers this season and they view him as the long-term starter at power forward with Jackson at center, it could be within reach as a restricted free agent next summer.

The problem with that is the deadline for his rookie scale extension is the day before the ‘22/23 season tips off, and I don’t think the Grizzlies will go that high right now. If an extension is reached, I think Clarke will receive something close to the four-year, $50MM deal Wendell Carter signed a year ago.

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2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Recap

September 19th, 2022 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2022/23 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (55.5) all the way through to the Thunder (22.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): Under (56.1%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (51.5 wins): Under (64.5%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (50.5 wins): Over (76.1%)
  • Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Over (65.7%)
  • New York Knicks (40.5 wins): Under (63.0%)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
  • Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest

  • Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (64.7%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (40.5 wins): Under (57.0%)
  • Utah Jazz (25.5 wins): Under (65.5%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Over (54.2%)

Pacific

  • Golden State Warriors (53.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (53.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (52.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (45.5 wins): Under (66.6%)
  • Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (62.0%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)

Our voters were most bullish on the Central and Pacific, picking the “over” for four of five teams in each of those two divisions. Conversely, they were bearish on the Atlantic and Southeast, choosing the “under” for three clubs in each of those divisions, including presumed contenders like the Celtics, Nets, and Heat.

In total, our voters went “over” for 18 teams and “under” for 12, which is a pretty standard divide. It’s only natural at this time of the year to view certain offseason roster changes in the most positive light, before we get a chance to see which ones will backfire. And with most teams fully healthy at this time of year, it’s also impossible to predict which clubs’ seasons might take an unfortunate downturn as a result of an injury or two.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Philadelphia 76ers, 50.5 wins: 76.1%
  2. Milwaukee Bucks, 52.5 wins: 75.5%
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers, 47.5 wins: 73.4%
  4. Golden State Warriors, 53.5 wins: 69.2%
  5. Memphis Grizzlies, 49.5 wins: 68.7%

There are some interesting picks in this group. The enthusiasm for the Cavaliers is presumably related in large part due to the recent acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, which raises the team’s ceiling in a major way. But the Sixers, Bucks, Warriors, and Grizzlies didn’t make any additions nearly that significant this offseason — Philadelphia’s signing of P.J. Tucker is perhaps the most impactful short-term acquisition made by any of those clubs.

In the cases of Milwaukee, Golden State, and Memphis in particular, it appears our voters are counting on continuity and returning talent winning out.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. San Antonio Spurs, 23.5 wins: 67.5%
  2. Los Angeles Lakers, 45.5 wins: 66.6%
  3. Utah Jazz, 25.5 wins: 65.5%
  4. Brooklyn Nets, 51.5 wins: 64.5%
  5. New York Knicks, 40.5 wins: 63.0%

These teams fall into two general categories — the Spurs and Jazz are rebuilding franchises that may not mind winning only 20 games this season in order to get a shot at a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama. The Lakers, Nets, and Knicks are big-market clubs whose projections may be slightly inflated by oddsmakers in order to encourage more betting action.

Most of these picks make sense to me, though I wouldn’t feel especially confident betting on the Spurs’ under. San Antonio’s roster isn’t exactly loaded with talent, but Gregg Popovich‘s teams always seem to find a way to outperform preseason expectations.

The Lakers and Nets, conversely, have enough talent to easily exceed their projected win totals, but it’ll come down to how often their stars are able to play together. Last year, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Ben Simmons combined to miss more games (230) than they played (180).

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

  1. Washington Wizards, 35.5 wins: Under (50.8%)
  2. Chicago Bulls, 44.5 wins: Over (51.6%)
  3. Detroit Pistons, 28.5 wins: Over (51.6%)
  4. Atlanta Hawks, 46.5 wins: Over (53.6%)
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder, 22.5 wins: Over (54.2%)

The splits on these teams are logical ones. We haven’t yet seen Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis play together for the Wizards. We have no idea how much Lonzo Ball will be able to play for the Bulls this season. Dejounte Murray‘s impact on the Hawks and his fit alongside Trae Young remains to be seen. And it’s unclear whether the Pistons and Thunder will once again be as bad as they were a year ago — Detroit could be ready to take a step forward, while Chet Holmgren‘s injury means Oklahoma City could be in for another long season.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

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Community Shootaround: Best Starting Lineup

September 18th, 2022 at 8:50pm CST by JD Shaw

As the NBA season nears, it’s fair to wonder which team will sport the best starting lineup this season. Of course, a team’s finishing group matters more than its starting group, but that can depend on which players are having a good game on a given night, as well as the opponent.

When it comes to the best projected starting lineup, the reigning-champion Warriors can make a. Golden State can start Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. The team can also go bigger and swap one of those players with Kevon Looney.

The Celtics, who lost to Golden State in the Finals, are bringing their defensive-minded group back: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams III. They narrowly edged the Bucks in seven games last season, and Milwaukee figures to start Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.

Besides those three teams, the Sixers, Nuggets, Nets, Suns, Bulls and Clippers can all make valid arguments for having the best projected group. The Grizzlies shocked the NBA by finishing with the second-best record at 56-26 last season, while the Hawks added Dejounte Murray to a star-studded lineup, so there are arguably other teams to consider depending on who improves the most.

We want to know what you think. Which team do you think has the best projected starting lineup? Was your pick mentioned, or do you believe another group deserves strong consideration? Take to the comment section below and voice your opinions!

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Eight NBA Teams Have Open Two-Way Contract Slots

September 16th, 2022 at 5:50pm CST by Luke Adams

As of Friday evening, 52 of the NBA’s 60 two-way contract slots are filled. Given how flexible those two-way slots are, it’s possible – and, in fact, very likely – that not all 52 of those players will still be under contract when the regular season begins in a month. But for now, there are just eight two-way spots up for grabs around the league.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Two-Way Contract Tracker]

A team with a two-way opening doesn’t necessarily need to decide how it will fill that spot before training camps begin in 10 days. Some of those clubs may decide to bring a handful of players to camp on Exhibit 10 contracts and then let those players compete for a two-way deal, since Exhibit 10s can be converted into two-ways before opening night.

Listed below are the eight teams that still have open two-way slots, along with some potential candidates to fill those openings.

Charlotte Hornets

With second-round pick Bryce McGowens occupying one two-way slot, the Hornets have no obvious candidate to fill the other, so it’s possible the team will hold a preseason competition. Currently, Jalen Crutcher, Jaylen Sims, Anthony Duruji, and Isaiah Whaley are signed to Exhibit 10 contracts, and all are eligible to have those contracts converted into two-way deals.

Dallas Mavericks

With their first two-way slot, the Mavericks signed Tyler Dorsey, who has high-level international experience and could earn a rotation role in Dallas this season. We’ll see if the team wants to use its second slot on another player who could contribute right away or if that spot will go to someone who is more of a developmental project.

McKinley Wright IV, Mouhamadou Gueye, and Tyler Hall are signed to Exhibit 10 deals and Marcus Bingham will reportedly receive one as well. All could be two-way candidates.

Houston Rockets

Bruno Fernando is the only Rocket who currently has an Exhibit 10 contract, and he remains eligible for a two-way deal. However, Houston has some roster cutdowns to make, which could open up opportunities for other camp invitees to emerge as two-way contenders. For now, undrafted rookie Trevor Hudgins is the club’s lone two-way player.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were the last team to sign a player to a two-way contract this offseason, completing a deal with Kendall Brown on Friday. With Brown holding one two-way slot, the other remains open.

Deividas Sirvydis, Gabe York, Bennie Boatwright, and David Stockton are the two-way candidates currently on the roster, but the team has also reportedly agreed to Exhibit 10 contracts with Tevin Brown, Eli Brooks, Fanbo Zeng, and Jermaine Samuels, so there will be no shortage of options.

Los Angeles Clippers

Moses Brown, who has 92 career regular season appearances under his belt and could provide much-needed frontcourt depth, is the most intriguing two-way candidate on the roster at the moment, but he’s hardly the only one. Like Brown, Xavier Moon and Keaton Wallace also have Exhibit 10 deals, while Justin Bean, Lucas Williamson, and Michael Devoe will reportedly receive them too.

For the time being, second-rounder Moussa Diabate is Los Angeles’ only two-way player.

Portland Trail Blazers

Given that the Trail Blazers don’t have a G League affiliate, it’s hard to see why they’d sign four players to Exhibit 10 contracts unless they want to have the option to convert one or more into a two-way deal. None of those four players – Jared Rhoden, Isaiah Miller, Devontae Cacok, and Olivier Sarr – has more than three years of NBA experience, meaning all of them are two-way eligible.

Portland’s lone current two-way player, Brandon Williams, is a holdover from last season, so his roster spot may not be as secure as a player who has signed a two-way deal since the offseason began.

Utah Jazz

Like Williams in Portland, Xavier Sneed was in the second year of his two-way contract before he was waived on Friday. The move leaves Johnny Juzang as the only two-way player on the Jazz’s roster.

Utah has a roster logjam to clear and could still make a trade or two before the regular season begins, so it’s too soon to name an obvious candidate to take Sneed’s spot. However, the team has reportedly agreed to sign Kofi Cockburn, Darryl Morsell, and Jeenathan Williams to Exhibit 10 contracts.

Washington Wizards

Jordan Schakel is in the second year of his two-way deal, so he may have to prove this preseason that he deserves to make the 17-man roster. Makur Maker, Quenton Jackson, Davion Mintz, and Jordan Goodwin are all on Exhibit 10 contracts in D.C. and could be in the two-way mix. Second-rounder Yannick Nzosa is also unsigned, but is expected to spend the 2022/23 season in the Spanish League.

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