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Community Shootaround: Deandre Ayton’s Future

June 6th, 2022 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Suns center Deandre Ayton was one of the only notable members of the 2018 draft class who didn’t receive a rookie scale extension last offseason, but the two sides’ inability to reach a compromise was widely viewed as more of a minor inconvenience than a harbinger of trouble.

The expectation was that if Ayton showed in 2021/22 that he was worthy of a maximum-salary investment, Phoenix would either negotiate a new deal with him as a restricted free agent or match a rival team’s offer sheet.

However, ever since the 64-wins Suns were unexpectedly dispatched by Dallas in the second round of this year’s playoffs, speculation about the possibility of Ayton’s departure has begun to heat up.

Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report wrote last month of skepticism around the league that Phoenix will be eager to match a maximum-salary offer for the former No. 1 overall pick. Fischer suggested the Suns may be reluctant to pay any center $30MM+ per year and reported that head coach Monty Williams has “griped about Ayton’s waning focus.

James L. Edwards III and John Hollinger of The Athletic are the latest to suggest a change of scenery is a viable possibility for Ayton. The two Athletic reporters said in a story today that they’ve heard Ayton is “more likely than not” to leave the Suns this summer.

With that in mind, we want to get your thoughts on Ayton’s situation, starting with whether or not he has earned a maximum-salary investment. Centers aren’t as valuable in the modern game as they used to be, but Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid just finished first and second in MVP voting for a second straight year, and Ayton is a 23-year-old who can score (17.2 PPG), rebound (10.2 RPG), and play solid defense, even if he’s not an elite rim protector or outside shooter.

The Suns would be able to offer Ayton up to a projected $176.9MM over five years, while a rival suitor would be able to put a four-year, $131.2MM offer on the table. If Phoenix isn’t willing to give Ayton that five-year max deal, should another team be comfortable offering the four-year max?

While Hollinger expects the Suns to pursue a sign-and-trade deal if they let Ayton go, there are a small handful of teams that could realistically create the cap room necessary to offer him a $30MM+ starting salary without requiring a sign-and-trade and would be intriguing fits for the young center. The Spurs are one. The Pistons could potentially get there too.

If one of those teams pursues Ayton, should they be willing to bet on the Suns not matching an aggressive offer sheet, or should they negotiate a sign-and-trade to ensure they get their man?

In his story with Edwards, Hollinger suggests Detroit could structure a deal around Jerami Grant, while San Antonio could put together a package that includes Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson. I’m skeptical the Spurs would be eager about giving up that much value to sign Ayton to a maximum-salary contract unless they’re virtually certain the Suns would match it.

Are there other teams you think would aggressively pursue Ayton in sign-and-trade scenarios? Perhaps the Hornets, who have long been searching for a solution in the middle? The Hawks and Trail Blazers were other possible suitors mentioned in Fischer’s recent report.

Head to the comment section below to let us know how you think Ayton’s free agency will play out. Will he be back in Phoenix next season? If not, will the Suns get something back for him?

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 6th, 2022 at 2:42pm CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves envisioned themselves as a solid playoff contender entering the 2021/22 season, but national expectations were modest — oddsmakers gave the team an over/under of 34.5 wins, and our readers voted they’d fall short of that mark.

It turned out the Wolves were right to be bullish about their outlook. Following a 24-25 start, Minnesota was one of the NBA’s best teams down the stretch, finishing the year on a 22-11 run for an overall record of 46-36. The club then won its first play-in contest to lock up the No. 7 seed and put a scare into the No. 2 Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, pushing the series to six hard-fought games.

A 46-win season and a first-round playoff exit would be a disappointment for some franchises, but it represented a major step forward in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves haven’t won a postseason series since 2004 and had finished below .500 in 15 of 16 seasons prior to 2021/22.

The last time the Wolves won as many as 46 games and made the playoffs, in 2018, the team came apart shortly thereafter, trading away star wing Jimmy Butler and firing head coach Tom Thibodeau partway through the following season. This time around, the Wolves are set up better for lasting success, with 2020’s first overall pick Anthony Edwards still on the ascent, a solid leadership group in place, and none of the team’s core players looking for a way out of Minnesota.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan:

The Timberwolves’ offseason got off to an eventful start when they poached veteran basketball operations executive Tim Connelly from the division-rival Nuggets, hiring him to a five-year, $40MM contract to run their front office.

The addition of Connelly was a reflection of how far the franchise had come since the dismissal of Gersson Rosas, which occurred just ahead of the 2021/22 season amid rumors that Rosas had engaged in an inappropriate workplace relationship. At that time, the Timberwolves were the butt of the usual jokes, particularly due to the timing of the move, which occurred just before training camp got underway.

Eight months later, the Wolves were no longer a punchline, having put together an impressive coalition of front office talent that also includes executive VP of basketball operations Sachin Gupta – who took over from Rosas on an interim basis until Connelly’s arrival – and newly-hired senior VP of basketball operations Matt Lloyd, one of the league’s top scouting experts.

Incoming owners Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore have spoken repeatedly about wanting to make the Wolves a top-flight organization, and their willingness to pay big money for an experienced, highly regarded executive like Connelly showed it wasn’t all talk.

One of Connelly’s first orders of business in Minnesota will be determining what to do with D’Angelo Russell, who is entering the final year of his maximum-salary contract. Russell has been up and down since arriving in Minnesota, displaying the offensive arsenal that made him an All-Star during his last season in Brooklyn, but also no-showing in big games – he scored more than 12 points just once in this year’s six playoff contests – and often exhibiting little resistance on defense.

Russell will earn $31.4MM in 2022/23, but he probably isn’t worth investing in at that price – or higher – going forward. On the other hand, he likely wouldn’t bring back a significant return on the trade market, and his close friendship with star center Karl-Anthony Towns shouldn’t be overlooked.

Unless the Wolves get unexpectedly impressed by a trade offer for Russell, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they try to negotiate an extension with him at a slightly lesser rate. Something in the neighborhood of the deals signed last summer by Mike Conley with Utah (three years, $68MM) or Lonzo Ball with Chicago (four years, $80MM) might make some sense for both sides.

Towns is also extension-eligible, having qualified for a super-max when he made the All-NBA Third Team this year — it seems likely the Wolves will put that offer on the table for him. It would be a four-year contract that begins in 2024/25 and would be worth 35% of that season’s cap, meaning it could well be worth in excess of $50MM per year.

That may seem like an exorbitant amount to pay a player who probably doesn’t rank among the NBA’s top 10 stars and may never break into that group, but the league’s salary cap continues to rise, and Minnesota isn’t exactly a premier free agent destination. If an All-NBA caliber player is willing to stick with the team long-term, the Wolves need to do what they can to make it happen.

If the Wolves retain Russell, Malik Beasley and his pseudo-expiring $15.6MM contract (he has a $16.5MM team option for 2023/24) might be their most logical salary-matching piece in any major trade. If the right two-way threat is available on the trade market, Beasley and the No. 19 pick would be a good starting point for an outgoing package.

But the Wolves won’t be looking to give Beasley away. He has been one of their top three-point threats since arriving in Minnesota (.389 3PT%) and can hold his own on defense. It’s also worth noting that Connelly was part of the Nuggets front office that drafted Beasley in the first round of 2016, so the new president of basketball operations will likely feel some form of attachment to the 25-year-old.

While their roster will get more expensive in future seasons, the Wolves still have the flexibility to re-sign Taurean Prince, a useful contributor at forward, and pursue another rotation player using their mid-level exception. I’d expect any new contracts Minnesota completes with role players this summer to span no more than one or two seasons, allowing the team to maintain some flexibility for 2024, when pricey new deals for Towns and Edwards would go into effect.

If the Wolves hang onto the No. 19 pick, they should feel encouraged by Connelly’s track record of finding diamonds in the rough later on in the draft. He can’t realistically be expected to top his selection of Nikola Jokic (No. 41 overall in 2014), but Beasley, Monte Morris, Zeke Nnaji, and Bones Hyland are among the players Connelly’s Nuggets have drafted at No. 19 or later since 2016.

Minnesota also has three second-round picks between Nos. 40 and 50, at least a couple of which could traded for other assets, since the club doesn’t have four roster spots to hand to rookies.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • Josh Okogie ($5,857,966 qualifying offer / $12,263,712 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $12,263,712

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($3,006,840)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 48 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 50 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,006,840

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Malik Beasley (veteran)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran) 3
  • Naz Reid (veteran) 3
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Wolves bring back their nine players on guaranteed contracts, plus Nowell, Reid, and their first-round pick, they’d be just over the projected cap at $122.5MM for 12 players. That would give them plenty of room below the projected tax line ($149MM) to re-sign Prince and use their full mid-level exception — and possibly even their bi-annual exception, depending on Prince’s price tag.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $4,750,000

Footnotes

  1. Nowell’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Reid’s salary will remain non-guaranteed until July 20 even if his option is exercised.
  3. Nowell and Reid would only be eligible if their options are exercised.
  4. The cap holds for Turner and Brooks remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

June 6th, 2022 at 9:29am CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

June 5th, 2022 at 8:19pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nets entered training camp last fall as the title favorites, with their Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving all healthy and ready to play their first full season together. However, it didn’t take long for Brooklyn’s season to begin to come off the rails.

Irving’s refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19 led to him appearing in just 29 of 82 regular season games due to New York City’s local vaccine mandate and the Nets’ initial unwillingness to only play him on the road. Durant put up MVP-type numbers in the first half to help compensate for Irving’s absence, but he went down with a knee injury in January that cost him nearly two months.

Harden dealt with conditioning and hamstring issues, and reportedly became frustrated by Irving’s inconsistent availability and the Nets’ struggles in Durant’s absence, ultimately requesting a trade prior to February’s deadline. Health problems also impacted Joe Harris, who was limited to just 14 appearances due to a troublesome ankle injury, and Ben Simmons, who was acquired as the centerpiece in the Harden trade but never suited up for Brooklyn because of a back injury.

The Nets still went 44-38 and won their first and only play-in game, but they never really looked like they were firing all cylinders, and their playoff run was short-lived — they lost four straight games to the eventual Eastern champions (the Celtics) in the first round.

With Irving on track for potential free agency and Simmons recovering from a procedure on his back, Brooklyn will have to determine this offseason whether the current core is still championship-caliber, assuming everyone is available next season.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan:

Irving holds a $36.9MM player option for the 2022/23 season, but is considered likely to turn it down and seek a new contract, which would lead to some fascinating negotiations between him and the Nets.

Brooklyn can’t really afford to let Irving walk, since his exit wouldn’t open up any cap room for a replacement. That should create some leverage for Kyrie. On the other hand, Irving is on the wrong side of 30 and has a reputation as a mercurial star. And the teams with the most projected cap room – such as the Magic, Pistons, Spurs, and Pacers – aren’t likely to seriously pursue him.

If the right sign-and-trade opportunity arises, perhaps Irving and the Nets would be open to pursuing it, but Kyrie – who specifically chose Brooklyn in free agency in 2019 – has given no indication he wants to leave, and it’s unlikely that any player available in a sign-and-trade deal would possess Irving’s upside or his ability to make an immediate impact for a win-now team. The Nets and Kyrie may take some time to reach sort of compromise – a five-year, maximum-salary contract seems like a long shot – but I’d still expect them to eventually come to an agreement.

A new deal for Irving is likely to push the Nets into tax territory on its own, but the team still has several other players’ free agencies to resolve. Patty Mills (player option), Nic Claxton (RFA), and Bruce Brown (UFA) all played important roles on the 2021/22 roster and if they’re not re-signed, Brooklyn will have to seek out adequate replacements.

Of the three, Claxton is perhaps most likely to be back, since the Nets can match any offer sheet he receives. But if there’s a team particularly high on Claxton that decides to force Brooklyn’s hand with an aggressive offer, perhaps Sean Marks and his team would prefer to go bargain shopping at center and use the Claxton money to address other roster spots.

Mills shouldn’t be in line for a significant raise, so his free agency will likely come down to where he wants to play. If he turns down his $6.2MM player option, there will be no shortage of teams interested in signing him as a backup point guard — if he decides another team gives him a better shot to win a title, he could depart.

Brown is another player who figures to draw interest from a handful of playoff teams, given his versatility and defensive tenacity. The Nets were able to retain him last year at a bargain rate because he was a restricted free agent, but this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a salary closer to the full mid-level exception. It’s unclear if Brooklyn is prepared to go that high.

If the Nets lose a couple of those guys, their best path to acquiring replacements may be on the trade market, since they don’t control any 2022 draft picks and will only be able to offer the taxpayer mid-level exception or minimum salaries to outside free agents.

Harris’ stock will be down following a lost season, but if his medicals look good, the Nets could potentially dangle his contract (two years and $38.5MM) and the Sixers’ 2023 first-round pick in an effort to get a couple useful rotation players. With sharpshooter Seth Curry under contract for less than half the price, Harris has become more of a luxury than a necessity.

Of course, Simmons – who has three years left on his maximum-salary contract – could be a trade chip, but his value will be even lower now than it was when the Sixers spent months trying to move him. Brooklyn is probably better off hanging onto the 25-year-old and hoping he can regain his All-Star form in a new environment. In theory, his defensive prowess and ability to run the floor should make him a nice fit alongside Durant and Irving.

As the Nets explore the trade market, it’s worth noting that they have several trade exceptions available, including one worth $11.3MM. That should give them a little additional flexibility as they weigh their options.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Seth Curry (veteran)
  • Joe Harris (veteran)
  • Kyrie Irving (veteran) 1
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Even if Irving walks and the Nets get nothing back in return, they’ll be operating as an over-the-cap team — opening up cap room would require jettisoning Irving and shedding more salary beyond that, which probably isn’t happening.

The most likely scenario is that Irving re-signs on a maximum-salary deal or something close to it and Brooklyn is once again a taxpayer in 2022/23.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 4
  • Trade exception: $11,306,904
  • Trade exception: $6,267,918
  • Trade exception: $3,246,530
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178
  • Trade exception: $1,293,680
  • Trade exception: $118,342

Footnotes

  1. Irving would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  2. Milutinov was the No. 26 overall pick in 2015, but has yet to sign a rookie contract. The Nets hold his NBA rights.
  3. The cap holds for Chandler and James remain on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value. The Nets could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

June 3rd, 2022 at 4:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Following a head coaching change and a second half surge in 2020/21, the Hawks made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, increasing expectations for the 2021/22 season.

The team struggled to meet those expectations early in the year and ended up nearly replicating the pattern of their previous season. In ’20/21, Atlanta followed up a 14-20 start with a 27-11 finish. In ’21/22, a 17-25 start preceded a 26-14 finish.

Unfortunately for the Hawks, the Eastern Conference was far more competitive in 2022 than it was a year earlier, and even after winning a pair of play-in games, they ran into a less favorable first-round playoff matchup this time around. The Heat’s defense forced Trae Young into perhaps the worst offensive stretch of his NBA career, and Atlanta didn’t have enough other weapons to make it a competitive series, falling in five games.

Now, the front office will have to figure out way to upgrade the capped-out roster and raise the Hawks’ ceiling going forward.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan:

Many NBA owners and executives will only speak in platitudes when discussing potential offseason moves, talking about wanting to re-sign their own free agents and build continuity. Hawks owner Tony Ressler and president of basketball operations Travis Schlenk have taken an entirely different approach so far this spring, telling reporters and radio hosts that changes are coming to this roster and not everyone will be back.

While that doesn’t mean the Hawks won’t try to re-sign any of their free agents, it seems like a safe bet that the agents for Delon Wright, Lou Williams, Gorgui Dieng, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and Kevin Knox are prepared to seek out new homes for their clients.

Beyond that, even several players who are under contract for next season shouldn’t feel too comfortable that they’ll be back in Atlanta. Young is believed to be the only Hawk who is truly untouchable in trade discussions, though the team presumably won’t be eager to move players like John Collins, Onyeka Okongwu, or De’Andre Hunter.

Still, that leaves a handful of intriguing trade candidates who could be on the table if the Hawks look to make a play for a star or simply want to make personnel changes. Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Kevin Huerter are all under contract for multiple seasons and are earning between $14-19MM — none are great bargains, but they’re far from albatrosses.

The appeal of Danilo Gallinari‘s $5MM partial guarantee is negated by the fact that the Hawks would almost certainly have to increase it to make him a useful trade chip, but even if his $21.45MM salary is fully guaranteed, his expiring contract makes him a logical salary-matching piece in a number of hypothetical trades.

So what will the Hawks be looking for in trades? Rather than addressing a specific position, improving the team’s defense figures to be the number one priority. That could mean pursuing a rim-protecting center like Rudy Gobert, who would be an upgrade over Capela. It could mean going after a two-way wing like Jerami Grant, who could help slow down the Kevin Durants and Jimmy Butlers of the Eastern Conference. Or it could mean seeking out a guard like Malcolm Brogdon, who can play off the ball and help shield Young from the most challenging defensive assignments.

Even though the Hawks project to be well over the cap, free agency also shouldn’t be ruled out as a potential path for a significant upgrade. Atlanta has enough flexibility below the luxury tax line and enough expendable contracts to realistically be a player for top sign-and-trade candidates.

However, some of the most noteworthy free agents who have been linked to Atlanta, including Zach LaVine, wouldn’t help much on the defensive end, and many – like LaVine and Deandre Ayton – would come with base year compensation complications due to their modest 2021/22 salaries.

The mid-level exception will be a more realistic tool for the Hawks to land a rotation player on the free agent market. Versatile defenders like Gary Payton II, Bruce Brown, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Anderson, P.J. Tucker, and Nicolas Batum would be realistic targets using the MLE.

Finally, the No. 16 pick in this month’s draft would be another asset for the Hawks to use on the trade market if they’re not in love with the idea of bringing in a rookie who may not be ready to play rotation minutes right away. If they do keep the pick, they could again prioritize defensive versatility and take a long look at players like Jeremy Sochan and/or Tari Eason, assuming they’re still on the board.

Atlanta’s best candidate for an offseason extension is Hunter, who has battled injuries in his first three NBA seasons and didn’t take a real step forward in 2021/22, but has flashed intriguing upside on both ends of the court when healthy — he put up 35 points and 11 rebounds in Game 5 vs. the Heat. If the Hawks can get him locked in at a team-friendly rate (perhaps a deal similar to Huerter’s), they should jump at the opportunity, but otherwise it may be prudent to see what he does in year four and wait for restricted free agency.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Danilo Gallinari ($16,450,000) 2
  • Total: $16,450,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 16 overall pick ($3,488,760)
  • No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,488,760

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (veteran)
  • Danilo Gallinari (veteran)
  • De’Andre Hunter (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Hawks will be well over the cap and are approaching luxury tax territory, even if they part ways with Gallinari. If we assume Atlanta waives Gallinari and stretches his partial guarantee across three years, keeps its first-round pick, and lets all its free agents go, the team would be on the hook for about $135.5MM for nine players.

The luxury tax line projects to be at $149MM, so the Hawks could fill out their roster and remain below the tax. But they wouldn’t be able to make full use of the mid-level exception without becoming a taxpayer, unless they shed some salary elsewhere.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $1,782,621
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Young’s salary will be worth 30% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
  2. Gallinari’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
  3. These are projected values. If the Hawks approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

June 2nd, 2022 at 8:50am CST by Luke Adams

The Pelicans‘ 2021/22 season began on a sour note, as the team revealed at the start of training camp that Zion Williamson was recovering from offseason foot surgery, then proceeded to get off to a 1-12 start in the regular season.

Williamson experienced multiple setbacks in his rehab process and ultimately sat out the entire season, but the Pelicans turned their year around without him. Steady production from vets like Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, along with impressive contributions from rookies Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, helped New Orleans climb back into play-in contention by the trade deadline, at which point the club took a big swing and acquired CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. from Portland.

Nance spent most of the rest of the season recovering from knee surgery, but McCollum thrived in New Orleans, emerging as the team’s leading scorer in the second half and helping to lead the Pelicans to the play-in tournament, where they won a pair of do-or-die contests and earned the No. 8 seed. They even gave the 64-win Suns a scare in the first round, pushing the series to six games.

Given how well they played even without the former No. 1 overall pick available, the Pelicans have reason to be bullish about their future. With Williamson on track to return next season and an excess of valuable future draft assets – including this year’s No. 8 overall pick – still available, New Orleans appears to be on the rise.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

Few teams have as little work to do on their 2022/23 roster as the Pelicans. Of the 15 players who finished the season on standard deals with New Orleans, 14 are under contract for next season. The only free agent, Tony Snell, probably isn’t part of the team’s plans going forward.

That doesn’t mean the front office can just sit back and enjoy a lengthy summer vacation, of course. The Pelicans still have a handful of big decisions to make, starting with how aggressively to pursue an offseason extension for Williamson.

No player has ever turned down a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension, and Zion probably won’t become the first. But the Pelicans likely won’t feel comfortable putting that offer on the table, even if Williamson’s on-court performance warrants it. He has simply missed too much time due to injuries in his first three seasons for the team to be confident that he’ll be healthy going forward. So it’s no surprise that team ownership is reportedly reluctant to offer a fully guaranteed max deal.

The most obvious – and most frequent – comparison for Williamson is Joel Embiid, who signed a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension with Philadelphia after appearing in just 31 games across his first three NBA seasons. That contract included injury protection language, giving the Sixers an exit ramp to waive Embiid and save nearly half his full guarantee if he continued to battle the types of injuries that sidelined him in his first three years.

On the surface, a similar arrangement makes sense for Williamson and the Pelicans. As long as Zion doesn’t continue to suffer major injuries, there’s no reason New Orleans would want to cut him, so he’d have a good chance to earn his full guarantee and max out his earnings. In the worst-case scenario, if his career is derailed by injuries, he could still potentially secure upwards of $80-100MM if the Pelicans are willing to guarantee half the contract.

As logical as that compromise may be, it’s a fine line to walk for the Pelicans, who have heard whispers ever since drafting Williamson in 2019 that he might not want to remain in New Orleans long-term. While Zion himself has never suggested he wants to be anywhere else, the franchise won’t want to risk alienating him by low-balling him in terms of guaranteed money.

There’s no doubt that trade speculation will begin to heat up if the Pelicans and Williamson can’t work out an agreement this summer, but the team should be prepared to exercise patience. Zion is under contract for next season and would be a restricted free agent in 2023, so New Orleans still controls this process. Unless Williamson makes a nuclear, Ben Simmons-esque trade demand, there will be plenty of time beyond this offseason for the two sides to find a resolution — and plenty of time for Zion to get back on the court and boost his trade value, if he eventually decides he wants out.

Outside of Williamson, three other Pelicans are eligible for extensions this offseason: McCollum, Nance, and Jaxson Hayes.

McCollum is under contract for two more seasons, so I wouldn’t expect the club to approach those negotiations with tremendous urgency. I’d also be a little surprised to see Hayes get a new deal — he did well as a power forward alongside Valanciunas this season, but the team will still want to see how he fits in once Williamson is back, and his legal issues complicate matters. Nance could actually be the best candidate of the three for an extension, given his track record, his versatility, and his reasonable price point.

The Pelicans also figure to explore the trade market in search of an upgrade on the wing or in the backcourt. Devonte’ Graham received a four-year commitment from New Orleans just last summer, but had an up-and-down season and saw his role change following the acquisition of McCollum and emergence of Alvarado. He’ll likely be expendable in the right deal.

Of course, the No. 8 overall pick, which the Pelicans acquired from the Lakers, will be a fascinating asset to monitor. New Orleans should be able to secure a pretty talented prospect at that spot in the lottery if the team hangs onto the pick, but it would also be a valuable trade chip to attach to Graham and/or other veterans on the trade market.

My best guess for now is that the Pelicans would rather hang onto that pick and add one more promising youngster to their core while dipping into their stash of future first-rounders for any win-now trades. But if the right player is attainable on the trade market, the front office should be willing to let the No. 8 selection go.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jose Alvarado ($463,518)
  • Total: $463,518

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 8 overall pick ($5,434,920)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,434,920

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Jaxson Hayes (rookie scale)
  • CJ McCollum (veteran)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
  • Zion Williamson (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With about $141MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season (assuming Alvarado returns, which is a lock), the Pelicans will be far beyond the projected $122MM cap and are starting to approach the $149MM luxury tax line.

They’ll have to keep that tax cutoff in mind when they consider possible trades and weigh how to fill their final roster spot. Simply bringing back their 14 players currently under contract and using the No. 8 pick on a 15th man would leave them with $2MM+ in breathing room below the tax line.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 2
  • Trade exception: $6,382,262
  • Trade exception: $1,786,878

Footnotes

  1. The cap hold for Nunnally remain on the Pelicans’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  2. This is a projected value. The Pelicans could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Why Non-Guaranteed Contracts Aren’t Ideal Trade Chips

June 1st, 2022 at 12:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, a player with a $10MM guaranteed salary and a player with a $10MM non-guaranteed salary were essentially treated the same way in trades for salary-matching purposes. However, that’s no longer the case under the league’s current CBA.

We’ve written about this in the past, but it’s a point worth reiterating with the 2022 offseason around the corner: A player’s outgoing salary for matching purposes is now only equivalent to his salary guarantee. So a player with a $5MM partial guarantee on a $10MM contract counts for $5MM in outgoing salary. A player with a non-guaranteed $10MM contract counts as $0 in outgoing salary.

For the team receiving the player, however, the full cap hit still applies. So even though a player on a $10MM non-guaranteed contract would count as $0 for outgoing purposes, he’d be considered $10MM in incoming salary to the team acquiring him.

Since over-the-cap teams must match salaries in trades within a certain percentage, this rule is worth keeping in mind when considering a handful of possible trade candidates this summer.

For example, the Hawks have Danilo Gallinari under contract for $21.45MM in 2022/23, but only $5MM of that amount is guaranteed. As a result, Atlanta wouldn’t be able to use Gallinari as the primary salary-matching piece in a deal for, say, Jerami Grant and his $20MM+ salary this offseason unless they significantly increased Gallinari’s partial guarantee (to $15MM+).

As it stands, Gallinari’s $5MM partial guarantee would be enough to net the Hawks a player earning up to $8.85MM. However, since Gallinari’s incoming salary to a new team would count as $21.45MM, that team wouldn’t be permitted to trade only an $8.85MM player for Gallinari unless it had the cap room necessary to accommodate the forward’s full $21.45MM cap hit.

For an over-the-cap team, acquiring Gallinari would mean sending at least $16.45MM in outgoing salary, which the Hawks wouldn’t be able to accommodate using only Gallinari’s $5MM partial guarantee.

This rule affecting non-guaranteed contracts applies even if the Hawks were to trade Gallinari before the 2022/23 league year begins on July 1. Once Atlanta’s season ended, Gallinari’s ’22/23 partial guarantee replaced his ’21/22 salary as his new outgoing salary for matching purposes. So the Hawks can’t circumvent the rule by moving Gallinari during or before the draft.

The Hawks are hardly the only team affected by the trade rules for non-guaranteed salaries. Kelly Oubre (Hornets), Mason Plumlee (Hornets), Danny Green (Sixers), Eric Bledsoe (Trail Blazers), Josh Hart (Trail Blazers), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Wizards) are among the players with partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed salaries who won’t be especially useful as trade chips unless their guarantees are increased or they’re sent to teams with the cap room to absorb their full salaries.

The smaller a player’s salary and the smaller the gap between his guarantee and his full cap hit, the easier these rules are to work around.

For instance, Plumlee has a $9.08MM salary for next season, with a $4.26MM partial guarantee. If he were swapped for a player earning $7MM, both teams would meet the salary-matching requirements. It wouldn’t be so easy in a trade involving a player like Bledsoe, since the gap between his partial guarantee ($3.9MM) and his full cap hit ($19.38MM) is so substantial.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

May 31st, 2022 at 11:10pm CST by Luke Adams

When we asked Hoops Rumors readers last fall whether the Cavaliers would win over or under 26.5 games in 2021/22, responses leaned ever so slightly toward the under, and the consensus was that Cleveland was on its way to another lottery finish. So when the Cavs won their 27th game on January 17, their season already had to be considered a major success.

Unfortunately, injuries caught up to Cleveland following a 35-21 start and the team finished just 9-17, falling out of a top-six spot in the East and into play-in territory. The banged-up Cavs then lost a pair of play-in games – one in Brooklyn and one at home vs. Atlanta – and missed out on the opportunity to compete in a postseason series.

It was a disappointing finish to the year, since getting some best-of-seven playoff experience against a team like the Heat or Bucks would have been a huge step for young players like Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. But the organization still had to be thrilled by what it saw from its roster this past year.

After going 60-159 in the three seasons following LeBron James‘ departure, the ’21/22 Cavs finished above .500 (44-38), showing the resilience to fight through a series of injuries to key contributors, including Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio, Mobley, and Allen. And given how young most of Cleveland’s core players still are, there’s no reason to think this group has reached its ceiling.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:

The nine players who logged the most total minutes for the Cavaliers in 2021/22 are all under contract for at least one more season, as is midseason addition Caris LeVert, so the roster shouldn’t undergo any significant changes this summer. However, there are still a handful of important decisions to make.

Determining how to handle Sexton’s restricted free agency will be one of the front office’s top priorities. The former lottery pick emerged as one of the NBA’s most dangerous backcourt scorers from 2019-21, averaging 22.5 PPG on .474/.376/.828 shooting across those two years. But he suffered a torn meniscus just 11 games into his fourth season and wasn’t a factor in the Cavs’ unexpected success.

As good a scorer as Sexton is, his contributions on the other end of the court are limited, and his lost season will likely reduce his leverage in contract negotiations. With so few teams possessing cap room this offseason, the Cavs are in position to play hardball in their discussions with Sexton, especially if none of those cap-room teams have serious interest in him. A deal worth at least $20-25MM annually seemed within reach for the 6’1″ guard a year ago, but now he’d be doing well to get $15-17MM per season.

The presence of LeVert should provide the Cavs with additional leverage in their talks with Sexton. LeVert wasn’t at his best after joining the Cavs, averaging a modest 13.6 PPG in 19 games, but he’s just one year removed from a 20+ PPG season, and his size makes him a more natural fit next to Garland in Cleveland’s backcourt.

LeVert will be extension-eligible this offseason, so the Cavs should be able to get a sense of what sort of deals both he and Sexton are seeking before investing long-term in one or the other — or both.

Like LeVert, Garland and Kevin Love will be eligible for contract extensions this summer. Talks with Garland should be reasonably straightforward, as he has earned a maximum-salary offer following an All-Star campaign. It should just be a matter of whether or not he gets the full five years.

Love is less likely to receive a new deal in the coming months, since his $28.9MM expiring contract could be useful in trade talks during the offseason or at the 2023 deadline. But if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut, Cleveland would likely entertain the idea of an extension for Love, who had a nice bounce-back year in 2021/22 and was the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up.

As a result of missing out on the playoffs, the Cavs retained their first-round pick, which would have gone to Indiana if it had landed outside of the lottery. That No. 14 overall selection probably won’t yield a star, but it’s an intriguing asset as Cleveland looks to add more shooting and defense on the wing.

Ohio State’s Malaki Branham, Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji, Baylor’s Jeremy Sochan, and LSU’s Tari Eason all make sense as potential targets if the Cavs keep the pick. It could also be dangled in trade talks if Cleveland wants to acquire a veteran who is a better bet to contribute immediately.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 14 overall pick ($3,865,920)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,865,920

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Darius Garland (rookie scale)
  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Kevin Love (veteran)
  • Dean Wade (veteran) 2
  • Dylan Windler (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $120MM+ in guaranteed money on their books, plus Wade, Stevens, and a first-round pick to account for, the Cavs will almost certainly be over the projected $122MM cap.

Whether or not they approach the tax line will hinge largely on whether Sexton is back and how big his first-year salary is. Even with a new deal for Sexton on the books, Cleveland shouldn’t be a taxpayer next season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $858,218
  • Trade exception: $300,000

Footnotes

  1. Wade’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Wade would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  3. The cap hold for Dellavedova remain on the Cavaliers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. If the Cavaliers approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Golden State Warriors Vs. Boston Celtics

May 30th, 2022 at 9:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The last two teams standing have plenty of history in the NBA Finals.

The Celtics will be seeking to break their tie with the Lakers for the most NBA championships. They’ve both won it 17 times, though Boston hasn’t captured the Larry O’Brien trophy since 2008 and hasn’t reached the Finals since 2010.

The Warriors will be seeking their fourth title in eight years — they won it in 2015, 2017 and 2018.

Defense has been the calling card of both teams. They finished first and second in the regular season in defensive field goal percentage — Boston held opponents to 43.4% shooting, while Golden State limited opponents to 43.8% shooting. They are second and third in that category in the postseason behind Milwaukee.

Both teams have versatile players who can guard multiple positions. Boston has the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, Golden State has former DPOY Draymond Green.

Offensively, the Celtics rely on their wings while the Warriors lean on their guards. Boston’s Jayson Tatum (27.0 PPG in this postseason) and Jaylen Brown (22.9 PPG) are capable of taking over games at any time. Of course, Golden State has the Splash Brothers. Stephen Curry (25.9 PPG) and Klay Thompson (19.8 PPG) are just as dangerous as ever and they’ve got plenty of support from 22-year-old Jordan Poole (18.4 PPG).

The Smart-Curry matchup could set the tone for the series. Andrew Wiggins will draw either Tatum or Brown.

The Celtics’ frontcourt of veteran Al Horford and Robert Williams, with a big assist from Grant Williams, will go toe-to-toe with Green and one of the postseason’s biggest surprises, Kevon Looney.

With the home court advantage and championship experience, Golden State enters the Finals as the favorite. However, Boston’s defense and dynamic scoring duo can’t be underestimated.

So now it’s your turn to decide how the Finals will play out. Vote in our poll, then head to the comments section below to share your thoughts!

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NCAA’s Withdrawal Deadline Looms For Draft’s Early Entrants

May 30th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

College players who are “testing the draft waters” this spring, having entered the 2022 NBA draft pool while maintaining their NCAA eligibility, will have to make a final decision this week on whether or not to go pro.

The NCAA has set a withdrawal deadline of Wednesday, June 1 at 11:59 pm Eastern time (10 days after the end of the draft combine). A player who still has college eligibility left but who doesn’t pull out of the draft pool by that deadline will forgo his remaining eligibility and won’t be able to return to his school or transfer to a new one for the 2022/23 season.

A total of 247 college players – either underclassmen or seniors who still have an extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19 – initially entered the draft prior to April’s early entry deadline.

In the weeks since then, many have either opted to withdraw after getting feedback on their stock, or have made a final decision to remain in the draft. However, as our early entrant tracker shows, there are still dozens with decisions to make by Wednesday night.

A college player who doesn’t withdraw from the draft by Wednesday’s deadline still technically has another 12 days to do so, since the NBA’s own withdrawal deadline is on Monday, June 13 at 5:00 pm ET, 10 days ahead of the June 23 draft.

However, a college player who pulls out of the draft pool at that point would no longer have his NCAA eligibility, so he’d have to play in a non-NBA league for the 2022/23 season. That’s why the NBA’s withdrawal deadline is often only meaningful for international players, who don’t have to worry about the NCAA’s rules.

NC State’s Terquavion Smith, Duke’s Trevor Keels, Wake Forest’s Jake LaRavia, and Colorado State’s David Roddy are some of the top-50 prospects on ESPN’s big board who have yet to formally confirmed whether they’ll stay in the draft. We’ll be tracking their decisions – and all the rest – ahead of Wednesday’s deadline.

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