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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

May 26th, 2022 at 8:46am CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks were one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2020/21 NBA season, outperforming expectations by finishing 10 games above .500 and returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Instead of building on that progress in ’21/22, however, the team took a step backward, falling eight games below .500 and missing the playoffs and the play-in tournament entirely.

There were a variety of reasons for the Knicks’ letdown of a season. Regression affected certain players, including Julius Randle, who came back to earth after earning a spot on the All-NBA Second Team and a Most Improved Player award a year ago. Injuries were an issue, with point guard Derrick Rose limited to just 26 appearances. And New York’s offseason personnel changes didn’t pay dividends. Kemba Walker, in particular, was a bust — knee issues continued to diminish his effectiveness, and his offensive production was no longer good enough to make up for his subpar defense.

The Knicks built a reputation as a hard-nosed defensive team under Tom Thibodeau in 2020/21, placing fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, but didn’t look like that same club in the first half of last season. The good news? New York had the NBA’s best defensive rating after the 2022 All-Star break. The team will try to carry over that success to the fall, though it’s safe to assume next season’s roster will look a little different than the one that finished 2021/22.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:

The Knicks’ offseason intentions are difficult to ascertain, and not just because president of basketball operations Leon Rose has zero interest in ever speaking to the media. The team doesn’t project to have any cap room, but it also has very few long-term veteran contracts on its books and has an excess of future draft picks, so there’s some flexibility to make significant changes this summer if the front office wants to take that path.

Rose, Walker, Alec Burks, and Nerlens Noel will earn a combined $43MM in 2022/23, but all four are on either expiring contracts or de facto expiring deals that include a 2023/24 team option, making them intriguing trade chips, either in the offseason or at next year’s trade deadline.

Even the team’s two most expensive veterans, who are on longer-term deals, are potential trade candidates. Randle and Evan Fournier will be more difficult to move since they’re pricier and aren’t coming off their best seasons, which will make it challenging to agree on fair value. But it’s safe to assume the Knicks would listen on either one if they receive inquiries from potential trade partners.

While no player on the Knicks’ roster should be considered a mortal lock to return, RJ Barrett is pretty close. The former No. 3 overall pick struggled to maintain his level of scoring efficiency in 2021/22 as his usage rate continued to increase, but he has shown enough upside to be viewed as a long-term cornerstone in New York.

Barrett will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and it will be interesting to see how the Knicks approach those negotiations. If the 21-year-old isn’t willing to sign for anything less than the maximum salary, the club is probably better off waiting another year to further assess whether he’s worthy of that kind of financial commitment.

Besides Barrett, the Knicks will probably be inclined to hang onto most of the rest of their 24-and-under group, including Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, and Cam Reddish. Perhaps one or two of them could be used to sweeten a trade package for an impact player, but if that sort of deal isn’t available, the team will want to continue evaluating its youngsters to determine which ones are keepers.

Reddish, like Barrett, is extension-eligible this offseason, but the Knicks haven’t seen enough from him yet to guarantee him anything long-term.

As the Knicks consider potential trades or free agent signings, adding a starting point guard remains a top priority. Jalen Brunson has been repeatedly linked to New York for months, and his connections to the franchise (via Rose and his father Rick Brunson) have been well documented, but it won’t be easy to pry him away from the Mavericks, who have repeatedly conveyed a desire to keep him.

Since they won’t have any cap room, the Knicks would either have to shed a couple contracts via trade to create the cap room necessary to make a serious offer for Brunson, or negotiate a sign-and-trade deal with a Dallas team that won’t be eager to help them out.

Neither one of those scenarios is out of the question, especially since Brunson will be unrestricted — if he wants to go to New York, he can make it happen. But the Knicks may be wary about giving up assets (in a sign-and-trade or in salary-dump trades) in order to give an undersized point guard upwards of $20-25MM per year. They weren’t interested in seriously pursuing a similar player (Fred VanVleet) at a similar rate a year ago when they had cap room available, so we’ll see if they make a real push for Brunson or look elsewhere for point guard help.

Trades may be the focus of the offseason for the Knicks, since 13 of their 15 standard-roster players remain under contracts, but there’s one key free agent to watch: big man Mitchell Robinson.

Like Brunson, Robinson signed a four-year contract as a second-round pick and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, having never had to deal with restricted free agency. That will reduce the Knicks’ leverage and allow Robinson to sign outright with a new team without giving his current team a chance to match. It wouldn’t surprise me if he departs, given that he didn’t always seem thrilled about his role in New York — that could open the door for a new team to sell the young center on its vision for him.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($4,508,640)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,508,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • RJ Barrett (rookie scale)
  • Cam Reddish (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Knicks currently project to operate over the cap. Their guaranteed salary and the cap hold for their first-round pick total approximately $118MM, so the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would push team salary well past the projected $122MM cap.

The Knicks remain far below the projected luxury tax line ($149MM), so they should have the flexibility to re-sign Robinson and use the full mid-level exception, if they so choose. Theoretically, New York could even clear a little cap space by moving a mid-sized salary or two, but to take that route, the team would probably need to have a specific free target in mind and be very confident about its chances to secure that target.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 1
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 1
  • Trade exception: $1,175,818

Footnotes

  1. These are projected values. If the Knicks decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exception) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Kyrie Irving’s Future

May 25th, 2022 at 11:33am CST by Luke Adams

Since joining the Nets as a free agent in 2019, Kyrie Irving has played in a total of 103 games for the team. He missed 52 of 72 games in his first year in Brooklyn as a result of a shoulder injury, missed 18 of 72 in his second year, primarily due to personal issues, and then missed 53 of 82 this past season, largely due to his COVID-19 vaccination status.

Irving’s inconsistent availability, which has stemmed both from injury issues and personal choices, is a large reason why the Nets face a difficult decision on him this offseason, when he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency if he turns down his $36.9MM option for 2022/23.

Irving has played at his usual All-Star level when he’s been healthy, averaging an impressive 27.1 PPG, 6.0 APG, and 4.7 RPG on .490/.406/.920 shooting in those 103 appearances (35.3 MPG) he has made with the Nets. But he’s on the wrong side of 30 and his unpredictable personality makes him a difficult player to invest in long-term, especially at a maximum-salary rate.

In fact, Kristian Winfield of The New York Daily News cites a source familiar with the Nets’ thought process who says the team is hesitant – if not altogether unwilling – to give Irving a long-term max deal.

Winfield acknowledges that a one-year contract would likely be unacceptable for Irving, who will be seeking long-term security this offseason, so if he’s going to remain in Brooklyn, the two sides may have to reach some sort of compromise.

When asked about Irving’s future after the end of the Nets’ season, general manager Sean Marks offered no guarantees, talking first about wanting players who are both “selfless” and “available,” then later saying the team needed to talk to Kyrie’s camp to see if it’s “the right fit for both sides.”

Still, it seems likely that Brooklyn would move forward with Irving as long as the team gets some assurances about his commitment to the franchise. For his part, Kyrie has said he doesn’t plan to go anywhere.

If Irving opts out and seeks a new contract, he’d be eligible for a five-year deal worth up to a projected $247.66MM with the Nets. If he were to pick up his option and negotiate an extension from there, his maximum earnings going forward would be a little lower, but he could still get a deal that pays him a total of $232.75MM, plus possible incentives, over the next five years.

Irving could get four years and $183.61MM from another team, but it’s unclear what sort of a market there will be for him outside of Brooklyn, since few contenders have significant cap flexibility and many will be wary of a long-term investment in the seven-time All-Star.

When Irving signed his initial contract with the Nets, the deal technically fell short of the maximum salary, with a series of eight incentives available each season that would increase Kyrie’s salary to the max if he achieved all of them. That structure was designed at the time to allow Brooklyn to maximize its available cap room in 2019, but perhaps a similar format could work for both sides this time around, since incentives tied to total minutes or games played would give the club some protection in seasons when Irving misses time.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Nets could convince Irving to accept a contract further below the max. Brooklyn was his top choice in free agency in 2019 and he hasn’t shown any desire to leave — he also exhibited a willingness to sacrifice some money last season, when his decision not to get vaccinated resulted in hefty per-game fines.

We want to know what you think. Will Irving stick with the Nets? If so, he will he opt out to sign a new deal, opt in and sign an extension, or opt in without an extension? Could he end up playing elsewhere in 2022/23? Wherever he ends up, will his next contract be worth the max?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your two cents on Irving’s future.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win The East?

May 25th, 2022 at 9:03am CST by Luke Adams

The Celtics and Heat are tied at 2-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the games haven’t been as close as the series score suggests. The Celtics’ two wins have come by an average margin of 22.5 points per game, while the Heat used a big third quarter in Game 1 and a big first quarter in Game 3 to build leads they never surrendered.

In addition to being comprised mostly of blowouts, the Eastern Finals have been marred by injuries. Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Marcus Smart, and Robert Williams have all missed at least one game in the series, while others – including Jimmy Butler – have either left a game early due to an injury or have been affected by various ailments throughout the series.

Still, for all its shortcomings, the series has been a compelling one, and it remains very much up for grabs heading into Wednesday’s Game 5. Miami holds home-court advantage and would host a potential Game 7 if it gets that far, but Boston has looked like the slightly better team through four games, posting a +7.7 net rating.

While the Celtics may have played a little better so far, the Heat’s defense gives them a chance almost every night, according to ESPN’s Zach Lowe (Insider link), who looks at some of the biggest questions that could decide the series.

As Lowe writes, Miami is still trying to solve Boston’s half-court defense, but has had success when forcing turnovers — the Celtics turned the ball over 39 times in their two losses, compared to just 18 times in their two victories.

The Heat have also done well when targeting Payton Pritchard and Derrick White and should rely more on that approach as they try to get Butler and Bam Adebayo going, says Lowe. Butler was just 3-of-14 from the floor in Game 4, while Adebayo scored 31 points in Game 3 but has scored just 25 in the series’ other three games.

Williams’ health will be a key factor going forward for the Celtics, Lowe notes, suggesting that if Boston’s starting center is unavailable, the team should lean on a frontcourt duo of Al Horford/Grant Williams before turning to Daniel Theis.

In the other frontcourt, the Heat are minus-19 in 38 minutes with Dewayne Dedmon on the court, but don’t have many other great options to spell Adebayo. Markieff Morris and Omer Yurtseven have been out of the rotation and P.J. Tucker – who is capable of playing small-ball center – has been dealing with injuries and isn’t at 100%.

With Game 5 less than 12 hours from tipping off, we want to know how you think the rest of the series will play out.

When we conducted our first poll on the Eastern Finals, the overwhelming majority of respondents predicted it would go at least six games, and most were betting on a Celtics victory. If you voted in that poll, has your pick changed, or are you sticking with your initial prediction? Do you see this series going the distance, or do you expect either the Celtics or Heat to win the next two games?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 23rd, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The first four weeks of the 2021/22 season couldn’t have gone any better for the Wizards. On the morning of November 17, the team sat atop the Eastern Conference with a 10-3 record, Wes Unseld Jr. looked like the most impressive hire of the NBA’s first-time head coaches, and head of basketball operations Tommy Sheppard had just received a promotion and a contract extension.

Things didn’t immediately go into a tailspin from there – the Wizards were still over .500 two months later – but that first month was the peak of Washington’s season. Spencer Dinwiddie, the team’s big acquisition of the 2021 offseason, never quite fit in; Bradley Beal battled health issues; and the defense that ranked fourth in the NBA during that 10-3 start was just 26th the rest of the way.

The Wizards ultimately finished well out of the play-in picture with a 35-47 record and now face a pivotal offseason, with Beal up for a new contract and Kristaps Porzingis – acquired for Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans in February – suddenly part of the long-term plan in D.C.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

Beal is considered likely to turn down his $36.4MM player option in order to sign a new long-term contract this month, and reports in recent months have given no indication that he’s looking for an exit ramp out of Washington.

It’s good news for the Wizards that their franchise player isn’t forcing his way out, but if Beal wants to stay, that creates a new dilemma for the organization. Is it really prudent to lock up an offense-first shooting guard who is coming off a down year and entering his age-29 season to a five-year contract projected to be worth $247MM? And if the Wizards aren’t entirely comfortable with offering that full five-year max, how would that affect Beal’s desire to stick around?

It’s a tough spot for the Wizards and for Sheppard, who would scarcely have time for a victory lap if he re-signs Beal, since he’ll immediately be under pressure to figure out how best to surround him with enough talent to turn the team into a contender. The pre-deadline acquisition of Porzingis is an intriguing start, but as the Mavericks learned, figuring out how to maximize KP’s talent and keep him healthy is easier said than done.

Assuming Beal is back, the Wizards will likely be operating as an over-the-cap team, so they’ll have to fill their other roster holes on the trade market or using their mid-level exception. Following the failed experiment with Dinwiddie, the point guard spot is the most glaring of those holes and it’ll be fascinating to see what path the club takes to address that need.

Theoretically, a backcourt player who can handle tougher defensive assignments and space the floor would make sense as a fit next to Beal, but it’ll be a challenge to find that kind of player on the free agent market, especially at a mid-level price point. Malcolm Brogdon, rumored to be an offseason trade candidate, might be an intriguing target, though acquiring the Pacers guard would mean leaning even more heavily on players with extensive injury histories.

If the Wizards head to the trade market to seek an upgrade at point guard or another position, teams will likely ask for at least one of their recent first-round selections — Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, and Corey Kispert.

All have shown flashes of potential, but none has emerged as a reliable starting-caliber player yet. Hachimura, who got the closest this past season, will be extension-eligible this summer, so Washington will soon have to make some decisions on which of those young players are part of the team’s future and which could instead be trade chips.

The Wizards are in position to add one more lottery-caliber prospect to their roster next month, as they currently hold the No. 10 pick in the draft.

They may simply pick whichever player is atop their draft board at that spot, prioritizing talent over fit. But it’s worth noting that Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis, a versatile defender who can play either position in the backcourt, has been projected in that range. Duke’s AJ Griffin, one of the best shooters and youngest players in the draft, would also be a nice match if he makes it to No. 10.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($9,116,585) 1
  • Ish Smith ($4,725,000) 2
  • Total: $13,841,585

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall pick ($4,746,000)
  • No. 54 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,746,000

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Bradley Beal (veteran) 3
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (veteran)
  • Vernon Carey Jr. (veteran)
  • Rui Hachimura (rookie scale)
  • Kyle Kuzma (veteran)
  • Kristaps Porzingis (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Washington’s cap outlook hinges on what happens with Beal. Although they only have about $76MM in guaranteed salary on the books after accounting for the No. 1 pick, a $40MM+ investment in the star guard would essentially eliminate the Wizards’ cap room, especially if they guarantee the remainder of Caldwell-Pope’s salary.

If Beal departs, the team could theoretically open up a significant amount of space, but that would depend on whether he’s signed-and-traded. In that scenario, the Wizards would likely end up taking back a significant chunk of salary and could end up over the cap anyway.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $5,220,900
  • Trade exception: $3,980,551

Footnotes

  1. Caldwell-Pope’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 28.
  2. Smith’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 1.
  3. Beal would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  4. The cap holds for these players remain on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

May 22nd, 2022 at 5:36pm CST by Luke Adams

After making the playoffs for 22 straight seasons, the Spurs finished with middling 32-39 and 33-39 records in 2019/20 and ’20/21, seemingly reluctant to overhaul their veteran roster.

They finally leaned into a youth movement last offseason when they sent DeMar DeRozan to Chicago in a sign-and-trade deal, and fully committed to that retooling process during the season. Historically averse to wheeling and dealing during the season, the Spurs were uncharacteristically active in 2021/22, making four pre-deadline trades, including one that sent Derrick White – one of their longest-tenured players – to Boston.

The end result – a 34-48 record and a quick exit in the play-in tournament – wasn’t that different from the two years prior, but the Spurs seem to have a more clear-cut direction going forward, as they build around All-Star guard Dejounte Murray and a collection of young talent that includes 2021 first-round pick Joshua Primo and extension-eligible forward Keldon Johnson.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:

The Spurs will have a handful of decisions to make this summer on players eligible for free agency and players who have non-guaranteed contracts for next season.

Lonnie Walker, the team’s most notable free agent, had an up-and-down 2021/22 showing after enjoying a mini-breakout in ’20/21. A career 36.9% three-point shooter entering the season, Walker made a career-worst 31.4% attempts from beyond the arc, though he did establish a new career-high with 12.1 points per game.

Armed with plenty of cap flexibility and the right of first refusal, the Spurs are in a position to re-sign Walker if they want to, but they’ll have to determine whether or not he fits into their long-term plans, given all the other wings on the roster. Primo, Johnson, and Devin Vassell look for now like keepers, while Josh Richardson and Romeo Langford are in the mix on the wing for the time being, though they’ll both be entering contract years.

The Spurs have shown a willingness to give their first-round picks a second contract even if those players haven’t yet fully realized their potential, and sometimes it pays off, as in the case of Murray, a Most Improved Player runner-up in his sixth season. But the team could open up significant cap room by letting go of Walker and his $13MM+ cap hold. I expect they’ll at least extend him a qualifying offer and then see if he draws much interest elsewhere before making a final decision.

Devontae Cacok and Joe Wieskamp, who received in-season promotions from two-way deals to standard contracts, are also free agents, but they likely won’t be in line for more than minimum salaries if they re-sign.

The Spurs seem like a good bet to bring back most or all of their players on non-guaranteed contracts, including Zach Collins, whose $7.35MM salary is already half guaranteed — he showed enough in his return from multiple foot surgeries to warrant a longer look. Keita Bates-Diop, Tre Jones, and Jock Landale have non-guaranteed minimum deals and should be back unless San Antonio wants to open up an extra roster spot or two.

While parting with Walker would open up significant cap room for the Spurs, they haven’t typically been major players in free agency and could use any space they do have to take on an unwanted contract or two along with a draft pick, as they did during the season with Goran Dragic and Tomas Satoransky. Still, it’s worth noting that San Antonio has the flexibility to be a legitimate threat for a Miles Bridges-type restricted free agent if there’s a specific player the front office likes.

The most exciting night of San Antonio’s offseason might come on June 23 — no team holds more first-round picks or more overall selections than the Spurs, who currently control Nos. 9, 20, 25, and 38. Those picks will create a ton of options for the front office, which may not be inclined to add three or four rookies to the roster for 2022/23. Moving up, moving down, trading a first-rounder for future picks, or making a trade involving a handful of picks and players are all possibilities the club will likely entertain.

Assuming the Spurs remain at No. 9, it will be interesting to see what type of prospect they target. Last year’s selection of Primo at No. 12 was a roll of the dice on a player who has tremendous long-term upside but was the youngest in his draft class. If the team takes that approach again this year, it could mean taking a chance on a player like Jalen Duren, Dyson Daniels, or Ousmane Dieng.

Finally, the ever-present question of Gregg Popovich‘s future looms over every move the Spurs make. Popovich, who has been San Antonio’s head coach since 1996, is probably nearing the end of the road, but the deeper we get into the offseason, the more likely it is that he’ll be back for at least the 2022/23 campaign. Making sure there’s a strong succession plan in place for his eventual retirement will be a top priority for a franchise that has been a paragon of stability during the Popovich years.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($4,995,720)
  • No. 20 overall pick ($2,886,480)
  • No. 25 overall pick ($2,353,560)
  • No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $10,235,760

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Keldon Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Tre Jones (veteran)
  • Romeo Langford (rookie scale)
  • Dejounte Murray (veteran)
  • Jakob Poeltl (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • None

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Spurs bring back all their players on non-guaranteed contracts and hang onto their three first-round picks, they’ll have a projected $29MM+ in cap space.

That number would further increase if not all of those non-guaranteed players are back or if San Antonio trades one of its first-round picks for future assets. However, it could be cut nearly in half if retaining Walker is a priority, since he’ll have a $13MM+ cap hold until he signs a new deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $5,329,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Collins’ salary will become fully guaranteed after June 24.
  2. Bates-Diop’s salary will become fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. Jones’ salary will become partially guaranteed ($500K) after August 1 and fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  4. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

May 20th, 2022 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

No team had a more disappointing 2021/22 season than the Lakers, who entered the year as the favorites to come out of the Western Conference. After an underwhelming but respectable 21-19 start, the Lakers improbably won just 10 of their next 40 games, missing out on not just the playoffs but the play-in tournament.

Injuries to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis played a part in the Lakers’ struggles, but it’s not like the team was dominant when James, Davis, and Russell Westbrook were all available. A lack of reliable role players and an inability to maximize Westbrook’s strengths contributed to a letdown of a season in Los Angeles, and head coach Frank Vogel became the fall guy, losing his job at the end of the regular season.

While the Lakers would presumably like to make significant roster changes this offseason, reshaping the roster around James and Davis, their ability to do so will be limited, since they project to be a taxpaying team even with just a handful of players under contract, and don’t have any picks in this year’s draft.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan:

A year after trading away Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and their first-round pick for Westbrook, the Lakers would be thrilled to pull off the inverse of that deal, sending out Westbrook’s expiring contract for a handful of less expensive rotation players and a draft pick.

Unfortunately, Westbrook’s stock has cratered in the last 12 months and it’s unlikely the Lakers will be able to get anything decent back for him unless they’re willing to include their 2027 and/or 2029 first-round picks (the only two they can currently move, due to the Stepien Rule) or unless they’re open to taking on a significant chunk of unwanted multiyear salary.

With the Lakers focused on maximizing their title window for as long as the 37-year-old James is still playing at an All-NBA level, it’s not out of the question that they’d further mortgage their future by attaching a couple first-rounders to Westbrook to get immediate help.

However, the front office has projected patience in recent months, and the team has reportedly asked its head coaching candidates how they would use the 33-year-old point guard. That’s a sign that the Lakers are leaning toward hanging onto Westbrook – at least for now – and perhaps revisiting a trade at the 2023 deadline or letting his $47MM+ salary come off the cap next summer.

If James, Davis, and Westbrook are staying, the Lakers will have about $130MM on their books for just three players, eliminating any possibility of cap space and almost certainly preventing the club from using its full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Even just filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players would take team salary above the projected luxury tax line.

That leaves a small handful of assets for the Lakers to use for potential roster upgrades. A trade package that includes Talen Horton-Tucker and/or Kendrick Nunn is one option. Neither player’s value is especially high right now, but Horton-Tucker is still young enough (21) to have some upside and Nunn, whose $5.25MM expiring contract isn’t onerous, is a bounce-back candidate if he’s healthy. Adding a future first-round pick to that duo would further sweeten the pot.

It’s also worth noting that the Lakers still have about $4.4MM available to send out in trades before the 2022/23 league year begins in July. That money could be used to grease the wheels on a Horton-Tucker/Nunn deal or to trade back into the second round of the draft.

With the full mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, and sign-and-trade acquisitions likely off the table for the Lakers due to their proximity to the tax line, they’ll probably be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception and minimum-salary contracts in free agency.

Last year’s free agent haul showed the dangers of leaning on those limited assets — the team used its taxpayer MLE on Nunn, who didn’t play a single game due to a leg injury, and many of its minimum-salary signings were busts, including DeAndre Jordan, Trevor Ariza, and Kent Bazemore.

However, minimum-salary additions like Malik Monk, Avery Bradley, and Stanley Johnson worked out well, as did the signing of undrafted rookie Austin Reaves. It’ll be easier said than done, but the front office will be looking to improve its hit rate on its low-cost signings in 2022/23, finding more Monks and fewer Jordans.

The Lakers’ head coaching search also shouldn’t be overlooked as one of the most important decisions of the team’s offseason. Identifying a candidate who is capable of managing superstar personalities, getting more out of Westbrook, handling the Los Angeles spotlight, and guiding the team back to contention will be a challenge.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • LeBron James (veteran)
  • Russell Westbrook (veteran) 2

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Even if the Lakers do find a taker for Westbrook, who is a lock to pick up his option, they’ll likely have to take back upwards of $40MM in salary to make the deal work financially — dumping his $47MM+ contract onto another team without taking much, or any, salary back just isn’t realistic.

As a result, it’s a pretty safe bet that the Lakers will once again find themselves above the luxury tax line in 2022/23. Right now, that tax line projects to be set at $149MM.

Due to their cap situation and their lack of any real Bird rights on their free agents, it’ll be difficult for the Lakers to give any of those veterans much of a raise on their 2021/22 salary. That will be a problem if they want to re-sign Monk — they’ll be limited to an offer worth about $2.5MM unless they use their taxpayer mid-level exception on him.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 4
  • Trade exception: $2,692,991
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Gabriel’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Westbrook would only be eligible if his option is exercised, which is expected.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 18th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings‘ 2021/22 season got off to a rough start and didn’t get any better from there. Sacramento became the first and only team to make an in-season coaching change in ’21/22, and Alvin Gentry‘s winning percentage (.369) after replacing Luke Walton was barely an improvement on Walton’s mark (.353).

The Kings made a major splash at the trade deadline when they sent 2020 first-round pick Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana in a six-player deal that landed two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento, and there was some brief hope that the acquisition of Sabonis could help push the team into play-in territory during the home stretch of the season.

However, the Kings continued to lose games after the trade and ultimately shut down Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, neither of whom played in the final three weeks of the season due to injuries. The end result? Sacramento is now the holder of an ignominious NBA record, having missed the playoffs for a 16th consecutive season.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan:

The Kings will be laser-focused on ending their postseason drought in 2022/23 and general manager Monte McNair will certainly be feeling some pressure to make it happen, since he’s reportedly entering the final year of his contract.

Sacramento’s desire to be a playoff team raises some interesting questions about the No. 4 overall pick in the draft. With Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, and Paolo Banchero likely to come off the board in the top three, would the Kings target an older prospect who is considered more NBA-ready, such as forward Keegan Murray? Are they interested in rolling the dice on guard Jaden Ivey to create an electric offensive backcourt, even if it creates more questions about how their defense would hold up? Would they be willing to put that fourth overall pick in a trade for an impact veteran?

It’s a tricky spot for McNair. There’s certainly no guarantee that the Kings will be able to add a franchise player at No. 4, but it’s still such a valuable asset that they’d want to acquire a legitimate star if they were to trade it. Will a player of that caliber be out there this summer? If not, could the Kings consider a deal where they move down a few spots in the draft and acquire a starter-caliber veteran rather than a potential All-Star?

Whether they keep it or trade it, that No. 4 pick will be the Kings’ best bet to acquire impact talent, since they won’t have cap room available to make waves in free agency. Re-signing restricted free agent Donte DiVincenzo and using their mid-level exception on a rotation player could be the extent of Sacramento’s free agent moves.

If they do hang onto their lottery pick, there are some other ways the Kings could get involved in trade discussions.

Center Richaun Holmes looks like the most obvious trade chip on the roster — the four-year, $46.5MM contract he signed last summer seemed pretty team-friendly at the time, but Holmes struggled to find his niche following the acquisition of Sabonis and his stock has dipped a little over the last year. Still, he’s in his prime at age 28 and he should draw interest from teams in need of help at center.

The Kings will also have to decide whether they consider forward Harrison Barnes part of their long-term future. Barnes is a solid – but not spectacular – scorer and defender who is entering a contract year. His expiring $18.4MM deal would have positive value, but he’s also the sort of player who should fit well alongside Fox and Sabonis, so a possible contract extension shouldn’t be ruled out either.

Other non-core pieces on expiring contracts include Justin Holiday, Terence Davis, Maurice Harkless, and Alex Len. While there shouldn’t be any urgency to move any of those four, I imagine the Kings would be open to discussing any of them if rival teams inquire.

Of course, Sacramento has already made one of its biggest offseason decisions, announcing earlier this month that Warriors assistant Mike Brown will be the team’s next head coach. The Kings wanted a coach who had experience turning a lottery team into a playoff club. Brown technically fits that bill, having done so in Cleveland, but he had plenty of help from LeBron James in that instance — he’ll face a more significant challenge trying to repeat that feat in Sacramento without one of the NBA’s all-time greats on his roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($7,901,280)
  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 49 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,901,280

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Harrison Barnes (veteran)
  • Justin Holiday (veteran)
  • Domantas Sabonis (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Accounting for their guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for their first-round pick, the Kings will have about $110MM on their books, putting them in position to be an over-the-cap team. They should be able to re-sign DiVincenzo to a fair contract and use their full $10MM+ mid-level exception without going into luxury-tax territory, if they so choose.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $4,023,600
  • Trade exception: $1,630,934

Footnotes

  1. Metu’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
  2. The cap hold for Brewer remain on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Draft Picks By Team

May 18th, 2022 at 8:40am CST by Luke Adams

Not only did the Thunder move up in Tuesday’s draft lottery to claim this year’s No. 2 overall pick, but they’re also one of just three teams with four picks in the 2022 draft. No team’s 2022 selections are more valuable than Oklahoma City’s — in addition to the second overall pick, the Thunder control No. 12, No. 30, and No. 34.

The Spurs and Timberwolves also each own four 2022 draft picks, with San Antonio controlling three first-rounders and No. 38, while Minnesota has No. 19 and three second-rounders.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, four clubs don’t currently own any 2022 draft picks. The Lakers, Suns, and Jazz are three of those teams, and either the Sixers or the Nets will be the fourth, depending on whether Brooklyn decides to acquire Philadelphia’s first-rounder or defer it to 2023.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2022 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 58 selections by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (4): 2, 12, 30, 34
  • San Antonio Spurs (4): 9, 20, 25, 38
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (4): 19, 40, 48, 50
  • Orlando Magic (3): 1, 32, 35
  • Sacramento Kings (3): 4, 37, 49
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 6, 31, 58
  • Portland Trail Blazers (3): 7, 36, 57
  • New Orleans Pelicans (3): 8, 41, 52
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 13, 15, 45
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (3): 14, 39, 56
  • Memphis Grizzlies (3): 22, 29, 47
  • Golden State Warriors (3): 28, 51, 55

Teams with two picks:

  • Houston Rockets: 3, 17
  • Detroit Pistons: 5, 46
  • Washington Wizards: 10, 54
  • New York Knicks: 11, 42
  • Atlanta Hawks: 16, 44

Teams with one pick:

  • Chicago Bulls: 18
  • Denver Nuggets: 21
  • Philadelphia 76ers: 23
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 24
  • Dallas Mavericks: 26
  • Miami Heat: 27
  • Toronto Raptors: 33
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 43
  • Boston Celtics: 53

Teams with no picks:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Utah Jazz
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Full 2022 NBA Draft Order

May 17th, 2022 at 8:40pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2022 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on June 23, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2022 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Orlando Magic
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. Houston Rockets
  4. Sacramento Kings
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. Indiana Pacers
  7. Portland Trail Blazers
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers
  15. Charlotte Hornets (from Pelicans)
  16. Atlanta Hawks
  17. Houston Rockets (from Nets)
  18. Chicago Bulls
  19. Minnesota Timberwolves
  20. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  21. Denver Nuggets
  22. Memphis Grizzlies (from Jazz)
  23. Philadelphia 76ers
  24. Milwaukee Bucks
  25. San Antonio Spurs (from Celtics)
  26. Houston Rockets (from Mavericks)
  27. Miami Heat
  28. Golden State Warriors
  29. Memphis Grizzlies
  30. Denver Nuggets (from Suns via Thunder)

Second Round:

  1. Indiana Pacers (from Rockets)
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Toronto Raptors (from Pistons)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Los Angeles Lakers (from Pacers via Magic)
  6. Detroit Pistons (from Trail Blazers)
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. San Antonio Spurs (from Lakers)
  9. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Spurs)
  10. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Wizards)
  11. New Orleans Pelicans
  12. New York Knicks
  13. Los Angeles Clippers
  14. Atlanta Hawks
  15. Charlotte Hornets
  16. Portland Trail Blazers (from Nets via Pistons)
  17. Memphis Grizzlies (from Cavaliers)
  18. Minnesota Timberwolves
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Bulls via Kings)
  20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nuggets)
  21. Golden State Warriors (from Raptors)
  22. New Orleans Pelicans (from Jazz)
  23. Boston Celtics
  24. Milwaukee Bucks
  25. Miami Heat (from Sixers)
  26. Washington Wizards (from Mavericks)
  27. Golden State Warriors
  28. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Heat)
  29. Portland Trail Blazers (from Grizzlies)
  30. Indiana Pacers (from Suns)
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2022 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 17th, 2022 at 6:47am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of four prospects generally considered by experts to be a level above the rest of the class: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2022 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Detroit Pistons
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Indiana Pacers
  6. Portland Trail Blazers
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will receive this pick if it falls to No. 11 or No. 12.
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Magic, Pistons, and Thunder have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

Typically, only the top three teams in the lottery standings would have a 14.0% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, but the Thunder join that group by virtue of holding two lottery picks — there’s a 12.5% chance that their own pick will move up to No. 1 and a 1.5% chance the Clippers’ pick, which they also control, will be No. 1.

From there, the Pacers (10.5%), Trail Blazers (9.0%), Kings (7.5%), and Pelicans (6.0%) have the best odds to receive the first overall pick.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Clippers and Lakers are the only non-playoff teams that have traded away their lottery picks this year, and neither team put protections on its traded first-rounder.

The Thunder will receive the Clippers’ pick, as detailed above.

The Lakers’ pick technically still remains up for grabs, depending on the lottery results, due to a trade between New Orleans and Memphis. Here are the details on that deal:

Pelicans/Grizzlies

The Pelicans will acquire the Lakers’ pick if it lands in the top 10, while the Grizzlies will receive it if it ends up at No. 11 or 12.

Since the Lakers finished eighth in the lottery standings, there’s approximately a 99.5% chance that New Orleans will hang onto the pick. At least three teams in the 9-14 range would have to jump into the top four in order for Memphis to receive it.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • On stage: Rafael Stone (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  2. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  3. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Richard Hamilton (former Pistons player)
    • Lottery room: George David (assistant GM)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / special assistant to GM)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  5. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Kelly Krauskopf (assistant GM)
    • Lottery room: Chad Buchanan (general manager)
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Damian Lillard
    • Lottery room: Dewayne Hankins (president of business operations)
  7. Sacramento Kings

  8. New Orleans Pelicans

    • On stage: Swin Cash-Canal (VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
  9. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: David Robinson (former Spurs player / strategic partner)
    • Lottery room: Niraj Mulji (director of basketball strategy)
  10. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (president of basketball operations / general manager)
  11. New York Knicks
    • On stage: William Wesley (executive VP / senior basketball advisor)
    • Lottery room: Brock Aller (VP of basketball and strategic planning)
  12. Charlotte Hornets
  13. Cleveland Cavaliers

    • On stage: Anderson Varejao (former Cavaliers player / team ambassador)
    • Lottery room: Jon Nichols (VP of basketball strategy and personnel)

Lottery Format:

This will be the fourth year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results since the new format was implemented have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

A year ago, the results were more by-the-numbers. However, the seventh spot in the lottery standings was lucky again, this time for the Raptors, who moved up to No. 4 and grabbed eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

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