Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Hoops Rumors Originals

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 14th, 2022 at 5:31pm CST by Luke Adams

With his offseason trade request unresolved by the time the Sixers‘ season tipped off last October, the Ben Simmons saga was the dominant storyline looming over the franchise for the first half of 2021/22. The former No. 1 overall pick, citing mental health issues, didn’t just want to be traded — he didn’t want to ever play a game for Philadelphia again. He chose to sit out indefinitely and give up game checks while he waited for a deal to materialize.

The Sixers, led by a healthy Joel Embiid, held their own in the Eastern Conference playoff race without Simmons. And when they finally found a taker for him in February, they were able to pry former MVP James Harden away from the Nets, securing a more substantial return for their disgruntled All-Star than many league observers anticipated. With Embiid and Harden leading the way, the 76ers looked like legitimate title contenders.

Or that was the plan, at least. In actuality, Harden – perhaps bothered by a lingering hamstring injury – only occasionally looked like his old MVP self after arriving in Philadelphia, posting career-worst shooting averages (.402 FG%, .326 3PT%) in 21 regular season appearances as a Sixer and failing to elevate his game in the playoffs. Additionally, the 76ers’ depth, which was already somewhat lacking, took a hit in the Simmons deal when the team surrendered role players Seth Curry and Andre Drummond.

Embiid’s MVP-caliber play was enough to get the Sixers past the first round, but their season ended in the Eastern Conference Semifinals when they failed to solve Miami’s defense, registering an offensive rating (105.0) that was eight points below their regular season mark.

While the 76ers will be happy to have the Simmons standoff behind them, there are plenty of new questions for the front office to answer this offseason as Philadelphia attempts to get back to the NBA Finals for the first time in over two decades.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan:

Harden was still an elite play-maker after joining the Sixers, averaging 10.5 assists per game down the stretch. But his shooting numbers and his relatively modest scoring average (his 21.0 PPG represented his lowest mark since he was a sixth man in Oklahoma City) are somewhat concerning for a 76ers team that will have to decide how significantly to invest in him this offseason.

You could talk yourself into the idea that Harden simply needed some time to adjust to a new team and a new system while dealing with the after-effects of a hamstring injury. And if you believe that, a long-term, maximum-salary contract this offseason is justifiable.

On the other hand, if you feel as if Harden’s declining numbers were more about his age (he’ll turn 33 in August) and you’re skeptical that he’ll ever recapture his Houston-era form, the prospect of paying him an average of $50MM+ per year for the next four or five seasons is worrisome, to say the least.

Harden has a $47.4MM player option for 2022/23 and will have to make a formal decision on it by June 29. Philadelphia’s ideal scenario might see Harden opting in for next season and giving the team an extra year to determine what his next contract should look like, but I suspect the 10-time All-Star won’t pick up that option unless he knows an extension is coming.

If the Sixers are reluctant about putting a lucrative long-term extension on the table, Harden could attempt to force their hand by opting out and becoming a free agent — he’d just need to be confident that at least one rival suitor would be prepared to seriously pursue him, creating leverage and putting pressure on Philadelphia to make a long-term offer.

Given how fond president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is of Harden, I expect the two sides will reach an agreement of some sort. It may not be a fully guaranteed five-year maximum-salary contract, but it feels like Harden has at least one more big payday coming this summer.

Re-signing Harden will ensure the Sixers operate well over the cap this offseason, so their options in free agency will be limited. Assuming Harden opts in or signs a new maximum-salary contract, Philadelphia would have to get creative in order to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or to acquire players via sign-and-trade (doing either would hard-cap team salary at around $155MM).

Taking the cap situation into account, the trade market may be Morey’s best bet to pursue roster upgrades, though the Sixers aren’t exactly loaded with trade assets either. The team has already sent out its 2023, 2025, and 2027 first-round picks and won’t want to part with breakout guard Tyrese Maxey.

Inexpensive young players like Matisse Thybulle, Jaden Springer, Shake Milton, Paul Reed, and Isaiah Joe would have value, but the 76ers may view some of those players as long-term keepers rather than trade chips. The club will soon have to make a decision on which category Thybulle, who is extension-eligible this offseason, falls into. Philadelphia has been reluctant to include him in trades to this point, but he hasn’t proven he can be a consistent two-way threat — he was a liability on offense in the postseason, barely warranting any attention from opposing defenses.

Of course, to acquire veteran talent, the Sixers will need to start with a more substantial salary-matching piece than those low-priced youngsters. Danny Green‘s $10MM expiring contract is one option, but it’s non-guaranteed, meaning it would count as $0 for outgoing purposes. The team could partially or fully guarantee that $10MM to make it more useful for salary matching, but the larger the guarantee, the less it’ll appeal to potential trade partners, since Green may not play at all in 2022/23 as he recovers from a torn ACL.

The Sixers have a more intriguing potential trade candidate in Tobias Harris, who is under contract for nearly $77MM for two more years. He’s far more expensive than Green and is on a multiyear deal, but he’s also healthy and would be a useful on-court contributor in ’22/23.

The 76ers would probably love to turn Harris’ salary slot into a more impactful third star, or perhaps into multiple rotation players with more reasonable cap hits, but doing so won’t be easy. At $38MM+ per year, Harris is – at best – a neutral value and will likely be viewed by most teams as a negative asset. Getting a solid return back for him would require the Sixers to attach young players and/or draft assets.

Because the Nets opted to defer their acquisition of the Sixers’ first-round pick to 2023, Philadelphia does have the No. 23 pick in this year’s draft, which could be used either in a trade or to add another affordable young player to the roster. I suspect Morey would prefer to trade the pick for a win-now piece — if the team goes that route, it’ll have to wait until after the draft to officially complete the deal, due to the Stepien rule.

Georges Niang and Furkan Korkmaz are two more possible trade candidates, though Korkmaz is coming off a down year and has two guaranteed seasons left on his contract, reducing his appeal to teams seeking flexibility.

Morey is known for his willingness to think outside the box, so it won’t be a surprise if the Sixers do some creative roster shuffling this summer and manage to add some solid complementary pieces, including perhaps a replacement for Green on the wing and a reliable backup center behind Embiid. But the team won’t have as much flexibility as it would like to make that happen.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 23 overall pick ($2,553,960)
  • Total: $2,553,960

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • James Harden (veteran) 3
  • Tobias Harris (veteran)
  • Isaiah Joe (veteran)
  • Shake Milton (veteran) 3
  • Matisse Thybulle (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Letting Harden walk would actually open up a not-insignificant chunk of cap space for the Sixers, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that happens. If Harden simply opts in, all that cap room goes away and Philadelphia will have over $136MM committed to just eight players, putting team salary well on its way to approaching or surpassing the projected luxury tax threshold of $149MM.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Green’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 1.
  2. Joe’s salary will become fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. Harden and Milton would only be eligible if their options are exercised.
  4. The cap holds for Scott and O’Quinn remain on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Sixers approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Early NBA Salary Guarantee Dates For 2022/23

June 14th, 2022 at 7:55am CST by Luke Adams

A player who has a non-guaranteed salary for a given season will, by default, receive his full guarantee if he remains under contract through January 7 of that league year. Because the league-wide salary guarantee date is January 10, a player must clear waivers before that date if a team wants to avoid being on the hook for his full salary.

However, a handful of players who have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2022/23 have earlier trigger dates. Those players will receive either their full guarantees or an increased partial guarantee on certain dates before January 7, assuming they’re not waived.

These dates are fairly malleable — if a player and team reach an agreement, a salary guarantee deadline can be pushed back.

For example, if a player’s contract calls for him to receive his full guarantee on June 28, his team could ask him to move that date to the first or second week of July to get a better sense of what will happen in free agency before making a final decision. The player doesn’t have to agree, but it could be in his best interest to push back his guarantee date rather than simply being waived.

Those agreements between a player and team aren’t always reported right away, so our list of early salary guarantee dates is a tentative one. When a player’s salary guarantee date passes, our assumption is that he received his guarantee, but it’s possible he and his team negotiated a new guarantee date that simply hasn’t been made public yet. We’ll update the info below as necessary in the coming weeks and months.

Here are the early salary guarantee dates for 2022/23:

June 21:

  • Mason Plumlee (Hornets): Partial guarantee ($4,262,500) increases to full guarantee ($9,080,417). (✅)

June 24:

  • Zach Collins (Spurs): Partial guarantee ($3,675,000) increases to full guarantee ($7,350,000). (✅)

June 25:

  • Josh Hart (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($12,960,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 28:

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Wizards): Partial guarantee ($4,888,118) increases to full guarantee ($14,004,703). (✅)
    • Note: Caldwell-Pope was subsequently traded to the Nuggets.

June 29:

  • Chimezie Metu (Kings): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,910,860) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Max Strus (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,815,677) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,815,677) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,752,638) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 30:

  • Juan Hernangomez (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($7,307,130) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Theo Maledon (Thunder): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,900,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Kelly Oubre (Hornets): Partial guarantee ($5,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($12,600,000). (✅)
  • Moritz Wagner (Magic): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,878,720) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 1:

  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,752,638) becomes partially guaranteed ($50,000). (✅)
  • Ish Smith (Wizards): Non-guaranteed salary ($4,725,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
    • Note: Caldwell-Pope was subsequently traded to the Nuggets.

July 3:

  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): Non-guaranteed salary ($9,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • John Konchar (Grizzlies): Partial guarantee ($840,000) increases to full guarantee ($2,300,000). (✅)
  • Isaiah Roby (Thunder): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,930,681) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
    • Note: Roby was waived by Thunder prior to this salary guarantee date, but was claimed by the Spurs.

July 4:

  • Dalano Banton (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($150,000) increases to $300,000. (✅)
  • Frank Ntilikina (Mavericks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,036,318) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 7:

  • Nick Richards (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,782,621) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 8:

  • Danilo Gallinari (Hawks): Partial guarantee ($13,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($21,450,000). (❌)

July 10:

  • Eric Bledsoe (Trail Blazers): Partial guarantee ($3,900,000) increases to full guarantee ($19,375,000). (❌)
  • Terry Taylor (Pacers): Partial guarantee ($625,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,563,518). (✅)

July 15:

  • Duane Washington (Pacers): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,563,518) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

July 20:

  • Naz Reid (Timberwolves): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,930,681) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

August 1:

  • Armoni Brooks (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($50,000) increases to $250,000. (❌)
  • Tre Jones (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,782,621) becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000). (✅)
  • Jalen McDaniels (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,930,681) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

August 15:

  • Luke Kornet (Celtics): Partial guarantee ($100,000) increases to $300,000. (✅)

Team’s first game of regular season:

  • Dalano Banton (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($300,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,563,518). (✅)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,878,720) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Justin Champagnie (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($325,000) increases to $825,000. (✅)
  • Matthew Dellavedova (Kings): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,628,597) becomes partially guaranteed ($250,000). (✅)
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Partial guarantee ($50,000) increases to $400,000. (✅)
  • Josh Jackson (Raptors): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,133,278) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Isaiah Joe (Sixers): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,782,621) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Tre Jones (Spurs): Partial guarantee ($500,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,782,621). (✅)
  • Luke Kornet (Celtics): Partial guarantee ($300,000) increases to $1,066,639. (✅)
  • Chima Moneke (Kings): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $500,000. (✅)
  • Markieff Morris (Nets): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,905,581) becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000). (✅)
  • KZ Okpala (Kings): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $500,000. (✅)
  • Edmond Sumner (Nets): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $500,000. (✅)
  • D.J. Wilson (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to full guarantee ($2,133,278). (❌)

December 1:

  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Partial guarantee ($400,000) increases to $700,000. (✅)

December 10:

  • Markieff Morris (Nets): Partial guarantee ($500,000) increases to $1,000,000. (✅)

January 1:

  • Justin Champagnie (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($825,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,637,966). (❌)
Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0

Poll: Which Team Will Win NBA Finals?

June 13th, 2022 at 9:12am CST by Luke Adams

Four games into the NBA Finals, neither the Warriors nor the Celtics have put their stamp on the series and established themselves as the clear-cut frontrunner to win the 2022 title.

Both teams have won once at home and once on the road. Both have continued to avoid losing streaks of any kind — the Celtics are 7-0 in the postseason following a loss, while the Warriors are 6-0. As Zach Lowe of ESPN (Insider link) observes, the aggregate score of the Finals is 422-421 in favor of Golden State, and the two teams have made an identical number of three-pointers (64).

Oddsmakers like Bovada.lv and BetOnline.ag currently have the Warriors listed as slight favorites, but that’s mostly due to their home court advantage — the Dubs will host Game 5 at the Chase Center on Monday and would do the same in a potential Game 7 on Sunday.

As Lowe writes, given how tight the series has been so far, it’ll likely come down to “execution, toughness, poise, and a little luck.” Robert Williams‘ health will be an X-factor, as his knee continues to be a nagging issue. The Warriors’ ability to find second and third scorers to complement Stephen Curry will also be crucial. Through four games, Curry has 137 points and Klay Thompson – Golden State’s next-best scorer – has 69, Lowe notes.

Several more subplots will play a part in determining this year’s champion. As solid as Jayson Tatum has been in the series, he doesn’t have a signature performance yet, having shot just 34.1% from the field through four games. Does he have a huge game in him? How much can the Warriors expect from Draymond Green, who has been stout defensively but has done next to nothing on offense (4.3 PPG on 23.1% shooting)? Can the Celtics’ role players continue to knock down open catch-and-shoot threes? Will Boston need to adjust its pick-and-roll defense on Curry?

Lowe believes the Celtics are the “better, deeper team on paper,” but the Warriors have home court advantage and have had the best player in the series.

When we polled our readers prior to the start of the series, over 61% of respondents predicted a Warriors victory. If you voted for Golden State in that poll, are you still confident in your pick, or are you now leaning toward the Celtics? If you voted for Boston before the series, are you changing your pick now or sticking with it?

Ahead of Monday’s Game 5, vote in our latest poll below, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

Retweet 6 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

June 13th, 2022 at 7:42am CST by Luke Adams

After posting the NBA’s best record (52-20) in 2020/21, the Jazz entered the ’21/22 season with championship aspirations and came out of the gate strong, winning 28 of their first 38 games.

In the second half of the season, however, injuries, inconsistently, and a frequently recurring inability to hold fourth-quarter leads plagued the Jazz, who went just 21-23 after their impressive start and failed to hit their stride in the postseason, falling in six games to Dallas in the first round.

It was a familiar script for Utah. The team has finished at least 14 games above .500 for six consecutive seasons but never won more than a single playoff series in any one of those years. The latest postseason exit will lead to more scrutiny than ever for the Jazz’s core, particularly since longtime head coach Quin Snyder stepped down from his role several weeks after the season ended, citing a desire to move on.

While the Jazz may be focused on their head coaching search for the time being, it’s safe to assume they’re also thinking long and hard about the extent to which the roster needs to be overhauled. It will be fascinating to see just how aggressive CEO Danny Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik decide to be this offseason.

The Jazz’s Offseason Plan:

Dating back at least to the time they both contracted COVID-19 in March 2020, there have been reports of tension between Jazz All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Although Mitchell and Gobert have repeatedly insisted publicly that there are no issues beyond occasional moments of ordinary on-court frustration, those whispers have persisted, leading to speculation that Utah will eventually break up the star duo.

Multiple reports so far this offseason have suggested the Jazz are shutting down inquiries on Mitchell, but appear more open to the idea of moving Gobert. If that’s true, it makes some sense. As terrific a rim protector as Gobert is – and he’s currently the NBA’s best – his impact on offense is limited and his game-changing defensive ability can be negated to some extent when Utah faces a five-out look.

The Jazz can live with those limitations, but doing so would be easier if Gobert wasn’t set to earn nearly $170MM over the next four years. The club would likely prefer to build a more flexible defense made up of several versatile, switchable players. Having a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate at the rim to back up those players would be ideal, but Gobert’s massive contract complicates the front office’s ability to acquire them — using him as a trade chip may be the best solution to diversify the roster.

Finding a suitable trade for Gobert won’t be easy. Other teams will be wary of his outsized cap hit and the things he can’t do on the court, so it may not be realistic for the Jazz to expect a massive return, especially since they’ll want players who can make an immediate impact, rather than prospects and draft picks. Teams with interest in trading for Gobert won’t be looking to give up multiple impact two-way players for him.

As they consider potential deals this offseason, the Jazz’s front office will likely have the Raptors on speed dial. Toronto has a hole at center and has several talented two-way wings and forwards on its roster, including Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. — the Raptors won’t necessarily be willing to discuss all of those players (Barnes, certainly, isn’t going anywhere), but their abundance of starting-caliber forwards makes them an intriguing potential trade partner from Utah’s perspective.

Chicago has also been cited as a possible suitor for Gobert, but any deal between the Jazz and Bulls may hinge on how the two teams view former No. 4 overall pick Patrick Williams. The Bulls would have to be more willing to give him up than they were at the 2022 trade deadline, and the Jazz would have to like him enough to make him the centerpiece of a package for Gobert. I’m skeptical of the latter in particular.

The Jazz aren’t lacking in alternative trade candidates if they don’t find a Gobert deal they like. Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale, and Rudy Gay, among others, should all be available if the price is right.

Still, Utah will have to keep its expectations in check for what those veterans could realistically return — they’re solid rotation players and their contracts are reasonable enough, but they’re not major trade assets. None of them is going to be bring back two or three above-average rotation players like Gobert theoretically could. Any deals involving guys from this group would be more about swapping one veteran for another, creating a different look to the roster.

Of course, no Jazz player would warrant a more significant haul on the trade market than Mitchell, but it appears the organization won’t consider going down that path unless the former Louisville star says he wants out. There has been no indication that will happen this summer.

The Jazz’s ability to sweeten trade offers with draft picks will be limited. They have no selections in this year’s draft and have also traded away their 2024 first-rounder (top-10 protected). They could still trade up to two future first-rounders between 2026-29 as long as that ’24 pick doesn’t fall within its protected range for multiple years, but not every team will be swayed by draft assets so far down the road.

While most of Utah’s rotation players are under contract for 2022/23, some minimum-salary contributors will be free agents, including Hassan Whiteside, Danuel House, and Eric Paschall. If the Jazz can get them back at the minimum or something very close to it, it would make sense to do so, but the team already projects to be in the tax and will be reluctant to invest more heavily than that in players who are essentially eighth or ninth men. If Whiteside, House, or Paschall get offered substantial raises elsewhere, Utah will likely replace them with minimum-salary free agents.

Finally, it’s worth mentioning that the ongoing head coaching search represents one of the Jazz’s most important decisions of the offseason. Snyder was among the NBA’s longest-tenured coaches and was respected by his players. With the franchise at a crossroads, finding a Snyder replacement who is capable of coming in and demanding respect while creating stability would go a long way toward making sure the team doesn’t have to fully tear down its roster and start over within the next few years.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker (rookie scale)
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (veteran)
  • Jordan Clarkson (veteran)
  • Juan Hernangomez (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With over $148MM in guaranteed money committed to 10 players, the Jazz are on track to go well beyond the projected luxury tax line of $149MM. It’s possible they could avoid becoming a taxpayer if they make a cost-cutting trade or two, but there’s no realistic scenario in which they open up cap room. For now, we’re counting on them being limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 2
  • Trade exception: $9,774,884
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $799,106
  • Trade exception: $567,564

Footnotes

  1. Hernangomez’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. This is a projected value. The Jazz could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

June 10th, 2022 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 trade deadline acquisition of Nikola Vucevic didn’t have an immediate impact on the Bulls‘ on-court results, and there were some raised eyebrows when the deal ultimately cost the team the No. 8 overall pick that became Franz Wagner. But that trade was just the first in a series of moves the front office had up its sleeve to turn the team back into a contender.

After completing sign-and-trade deals for DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball and adding Alex Caruso in free agency last offseason, the Bulls came storming out of the gate and held a top-two spot in the Eastern Conference for most of the first half of the season.

Chicago was still the East’s top seed as late as February 25, but injuries ultimately caught up to the team. Caruso and Ball only played 41 and 35 games, respectively, while starting power forward Patrick Williams missed most of the season while recovering from wrist surgery and Zach LaVine was hampered for much of the year by a nagging knee issue.

The Bulls eventually slipped to sixth in the East and were quickly dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks. Now, the front office will have to determine how much of the team’s disappointing finish can be attributed to the injury bug and how much the roster still needs to be upgraded to make the club a legitimate championship contender.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

While knee soreness slowed down LaVine in the second half of the season, he’s coming off an extremely impressive two-year stretch in which he earned back-to-back All-Star nods while averaging 25.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.7 APG on .491/.404/.851 shooting. Now, the 27-year-old’s free agency looms large over Chicago’s summer.

LaVine isn’t a great defender, and he recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so there’s plenty of reason to be wary about giving him a maximum-salary contract that could be worth up to $212MM over five years. LaVine’s camp may have a sense that putting that offer on the table isn’t a no-brainer for the Bulls, which is why we’ve been hearing whispers in recent weeks about the possibility LaVine could end up elsewhere.

Ultimately though, I’d be shocked if the Bulls and LaVine part ways. It won’t be easy to get a significant return for him in a sign-and-trade deal, and letting him walk wouldn’t necessary open up any great alternatives for the team.

A $42MM+ annual investment in LaVine certainly seems high, but if the knee is back to 100% by the fall (which is expected), he should have several prime years left, and the NBA’s salary cap will only continue to rise, making his salary more manageable. It probably makes sense for the front office to simply bite the bullet on a max offer, rather than trying to nickel-and-dime LaVine in negotiations and running the risk of upsetting him.

Besides LaVine, the Bulls’ free agents include Derrick Jones, Troy Brown, and Tristan Thompson. None of those players lit the world on fire in 2021/22, so Chicago shouldn’t necessarily feel compelled to re-sign any of them. But if they all walk, the team will have to find a way to bring in at least one solid rotation piece on the wing, as well as a backup center.

Decision day on Coby White‘s future is also inching ever closer for the Bulls, who will have the option of offering the former lottery pick a rookie scale extension this offseason.

Ball’s recovery from surgery on his left knee will factor into what the team does with White — if Chicago can count on having a healthy Ball going forward, then the team should have more than enough backcourt depth to get by, with Caruso and breakout rookie Ayo Dosunmu also in the mix. In an ideal world, the Bulls would be able to use White in a deal that nets them another reliable wing or center. But if Ball continues to experience setbacks, White may end up being an important insurance policy.

Vucevic and Williams are offseason wild cards for the Bulls. Vucevic is entering the final year of his contract and probably isn’t the player the club wants protecting the rim on defense for the next few years, but finding a clear upgrade won’t be easy.

For instance, while Chicago has been linked to three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Jazz would likely demand at least a package of Vucevic, Williams, and draft picks — even then, I’m not sure how eager Utah would be to make a deal. After refusing to include Williams in an in-season offer for Jerami Grant, would the Bulls be more willing to part with him this summer? Or will the team remain steadfastly against selling low on a player who has such a tantalizing two-way ceiling?

It’ll also be interesting to see how prepared Bulls ownership is to pay the luxury tax. If we assume LaVine is back on a max deal, Tony Bradley picks up his player option, and Chicago keeps its first-round pick, team salary would be at about $139.8MM for eight players. With a projected tax line of $149MM, the Bulls would have the flexibility to use the full mid-level exception ($10.35MM) and stay well below the hard cap (likely around $155-156MM).

Any number of minor or major moves could affect those projected figures, but if that scenario plays out, I suspect ownership may prefer to use just a portion of the MLE, staying out of tax territory for the time being. If that’s the case, it would eliminate a few potential free agent targets in the $8-10MM range.

After selecting Dosunmu 38th overall a year ago, the Bulls own the No. 18 pick in this year’s draft and figure to once again seek out a player capable of stepping into the rotation as a rookie. Tari Eason and E.J. Liddell are among the players who have multiple years of college basketball experience, could be available at No. 18, and are capable of helping shore up Chicago’s frontcourt defense.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,148,680)
  • Total: $3,148,680

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
  • Coby White (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As outlined above, the Bulls would be well above the cap and approaching the tax line if they re-sign LaVine to a maximum-salary contract. They’d be able to use their full mid-level exception in that scenario, but not without sneaking into tax territory (unless they shed a little salary elsewhere).

If the Bulls don’t retain LaVine or any other free agents, they could potentially open up nearly $18MM in cap room, but that’s an unlikely scenario — if LaVine walks, the team would probably try to get something back in a sign-and-trade, eating up any available cap space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 2
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000

Footnotes

  1. The cap hold for Mokoka remain on the Bulls’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  2. This is a projected value. If the Bulls approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

June 8th, 2022 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning their first title in franchise history three years ago, the Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green in 2019, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in 2020, and Kyle Lowry in 2021. Somehow though, with the exception of an unusual 2020/21 season spent in Tampa, more than 1,000 miles from their home city, the Raptors just keep on winning, defying expectations in ’21/22 by becoming a top-five seed in the East.

The rapid emergence of eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes (Toronto’s reward for that dismal ’20/21 season spent in Florida) played a large part in the Raps’ resurgence this past year. The front office was questioned for selecting Barnes at No. 4 in last year’s draft over Jalen Suggs, who was widely considered one of the top four players in the class. But Barnes’ first-year performance as a two-way weapon vindicated the controversial decision made by president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster.

The remaining holdovers from the 2019 title team – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Chris Boucher – played significant roles in Toronto’s success too. VanVleet made an All-Star team, Siakam earned an All-NBA spot, and Anunoby established a new career high with 17.4 points per game.

The Raptors had a hard time slowing down Joel Embiid and the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and ultimately fell in six games. But given that Toronto was only viewed as a borderline play-in team entering training camp, the year qualified as a major success even without a playoff series win.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

With VanVleet, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and emerging big man Precious Achiuwa all under contract for next season, it’s possible the Raptors won’t make any major changes to their roster. It seems safe to assume that a number of those players – particularly Anunoby, Barnes, and Achiuwa – have yet to reach their ceilings, so Toronto can bet on internal improvement and continue assessing the long-term fit of its core.

Of course, the fact that all those players are on reasonable contracts would make any of them valuable trade chips. And it’s possible the Raptors would have interest in moving one of their three starting forwards to acquire an impact center, though I think that possibility has perhaps been overstated.

Toronto had success in 2021/22 with a versatile group of rangy defenders who showed the ability to switch onto almost any offensive player and hold their own. Adding a more traditional center – such as Rudy Gobert – to that mix would change the way the Raptors play defense and negate one of the team’s strengths — and it would come at a significant trade cost.

The Raptors will also have to be wary of bringing in a center who doesn’t have the ability to stretch the floor. Siakam and Barnes will launch at least a couple three-pointers per game to keep defenses honest, but they’re hardly elite outside shooters. Using Anunoby – whose name has popped up in trade rumors – as the centerpiece of a trade for a non-shooting center would create some serious spacing issues.

Ujiri has shown in the past that he’s not hesitant to pull the trigger on the right trade opportunity, having completed major deals for players like Gasol, Ibaka, and – of course – Leonard. But the Raptors are ahead of schedule in their retooling process and won’t feel any desperation to shake up this roster for the sake of it. If they make a significant trade, it’ll be because it’s too good to pass up.

If the Raptors keep their core intact, the team’s offseason decisions will revolve around free agent signings and possible contract extensions.

Two members of the Raptors’ playoff rotation – Boucher and Thaddeus Young – will be unrestricted free agents this summer, and I’d expect the club to have interest in re-signing both players, assuming the price is right. Team salary isn’t yet approaching luxury tax territory, so as long as Boucher and Young aren’t getting offers that exceed the full mid-level exception (about $10MM), Toronto could comfortably retain both.

The question will be how many years the Raptors are willing to offer, since the roster could get more expensive in the near future when guys like VanVleet and Trent, among others, are up for new deals. I wouldn’t expect Toronto to offer more than two guaranteed years to Boucher, Young, or any outside free agent targets.

The Raptors will be under more pressure to use their full mid-level exception if they only re-sign one of Boucher and Young, but they should have the flexibility to use it even if both players return. It will be interesting to see which direction the team goes with that MLE.

Last year, most of it went to a center (Khem Birch), who had an up-and-down, injury-plagued 2021/22 season — would the Raptors attempt to address that position again with a mid-level free agent, or do they expect more from Birch going forward? Would they instead pursue a shooter, or a backup point guard?

Sharpshooter Malik Monk would be a fascinating target, though it’s unclear whether he could meet the sky-high expectations Nick Nurse has for his players on the defensive end. Veterans like Kyle Anderson and Delon Wright can handle the ball and would be nice fits defensively — they’ve also improved their three-point numbers in recent years. Toronto should have some options.

It’s worth noting that while the Raptors don’t have their first-round pick this year, they did acquire Detroit’s second-rounder, at No. 33 overall. High second-round picks often get three- or four-year commitments, so Toronto could use a small portion of its mid-level exception to sign that player.

VanVleet and Siakam are both eligible for extensions this offseason, and I’d expect the Raptors to prioritize VanVleet, who only has one guaranteed year left on his current deal before facing a player option decision in 2023.

While VanVleet’s struggles to make an impact in the first round of the playoffs against Philadelphia were a little concerning, he was battling multiple injuries and has proved his postseason bona fides in past series. Toronto should feel fine about offering him a deal that gives him at least a modest raise on his current $21MM-per-year rate. Siakam still has two guaranteed seasons left, so there’s no rush to lock him up quite yet.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Armoni Brooks ($1,702,638) 2
  • Dalano Banton ($1,413,518) 1
  • Total: $3,116,156

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Pascal Siakam (veteran)
  • Fred VanVleet (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Raptors retain Banton, they’d have about $112.5MM in guaranteed money committed to nine players. That puts them in position to operate over the projected cap ($122MM), especially if they intend to bring back at least one of Boucher or Young. And unless one of those players is a lot more expensive than we expect, Toronto should also have plenty of breathing room below the projected $149MM tax line, opening the door to use some or all of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $5,250,000
  • Trade exception: $3,070,052

Footnotes

  1. Banton’s partial guarantee will increase to $300K after July 4 and his full salary will become guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  2. Brooks’ partial guarantee will increase to $250K after August 1 and his full salary will become guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. The cap holds for De Colo, Nogueira, Lin, Meeks, and Thompson remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 5 Share 0 Send via email0

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Base Year Compensation

June 8th, 2022 at 10:51am CST by Luke Adams

As Larry Coon explains in his invaluable CBA FAQ, the term “base year compensation” technically no longer shows up in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, and hasn’t since 2011. A relic of past agreements, the base year compensation rule was intended to prevent teams from signing free agents to new contracts that were specifically intended to facilitate salary-matching in trades.

While the base year compensation rules have mostly been adjusted and/or removed from the CBA in recent years, there’s still one situation where they apply. Teams have to take them into account when completing sign-and-trade deals.

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets all of the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

  • He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
  • His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
  • He receives a raise greater than 20%.
  • His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is his full new salary.

Here are a couple specific examples to help make things a little clearer:

Let’s say the Suns want to sign-and-trade Deandre Ayton this offseason. He’s a Bird free agent, his new salary will be well above the minimum, and the Suns project to be an over-the-cap team. Having made $12,632,950 in 2018/19, Ayton figures to receive a raise significantly higher than 20% — if he signs a maximum salary contract, it’s projected to start at $30,500,000. So he meets the BYC criteria.

In a scenario where he signs a max deal as part of a sign-and-trade, Ayton’s salary for matching purposes from the Suns’ perspective would be $15,250,000, which is 50% of his new salary (that amount is greater than his previous salary). From his new team’s perspective, Ayton’s incoming figure would be his actual salary, $30,500,000.

Zach LaVine is another top free agent who would meet the BYC criteria if he’s signed-and-traded by the Bulls this offseason. If he gets a maximum salary contract – projected to be worth $36,600,000 for a player with his NBA experience – his outgoing salary for matching purposes would be $19,500,000, the amount he made in 2021/22 — that figure would be a little higher than 50% of his new salary ($18,300,000).

Often, a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade doesn’t have the cap room to sign the player outright, or else there would be little need to negotiate a sign-and-trade. That means salary-matching is required, and is complicated by base year compensation rules.

In these examples, the Suns wouldn’t be able to take back more than $20,250,000 in salary in exchange for Ayton due to the league’s matching rules, while the Bulls wouldn’t be able to take back more than $24,500,000 for LaVine.

However, in order to take on $30,500,000 in incoming salary, Phoenix’s hypothetical trade partner would have to send out at least $24,320,000 in order to account for those salary-matching rules themselves. An over-the-cap team acquiring LaVine would have to send out at least $29,200,000 in order to match his incoming $36,600,000 salary.

The gap between the salary-matching figures from the two teams’ perspectives complicates sign-and-trade talks, requiring both clubs to include additional pieces to make the deal work. A third team could even be necessary to make the numbers line up.

The base year compensation concept doesn’t surface all that often, due to the specific criteria that must be met. However, it looms large over many sign-and-trade attempts, reducing the likelihood of teams finding a deal that can be legally completed. And it could affect a number of potential sign-and-trade candidates during the 2022 offseason.

Rival teams hoping to land players like Ayton, LaVine, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Miles Bridges, or Collin Sexton via sign-and-trade this summer would almost certainly have to navigate base year compensation complications to make it happen.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

A previous version of this post was published in 2019.

Retweet 5 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

June 7th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning his first Most Valuable Player award in 2020/21, Nuggets star Nikola Jokic was even better in ’21/22. And he had to be — with guard Jamal Murray sidelined while recovering from an ACL tear and forward Michael Porter Jr. on the shelf due to back surgery, Denver was missing two of its top three scorers for nearly the entire season.

Given the absences of those two key players, it should have been a lost season for the Nuggets, but Jokic was so good that you got the sense the team still had a chance to make some noise in the playoffs if Murray and Porter could make it back.

Unfortunately, time eventually ran out on the Nuggets’ season before Murray and Porter were ready to return, and despite Jokic’s heroics – and his second consecutive MVP trophy – the club just didn’t have the pieces to keep up with the eventual Western-champion Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan:

Having a healthy Murray and Porter back in their lineup will go a long way toward turning the Nuggets back into a legitimate contender. But that doesn’t mean the team should be content to sit back and view those returning stars as its offseason “additions.”

Murray and Porter will make the Nuggets’ offense more dangerous, but neither player is an above-average defender, so Denver is in need of one or two more wings who can defend (and ideally who can shoot too).

Newly-promoted head of basketball operations Calvin Booth will be tasked with finding those players, though he’ll have limited resources to do so on the trade market. The Nuggets have given up two future first-round picks and four second-rounders without acquiring any extra picks of their own, reducing the team’s ability to sweeten its offers with draft assets.

That means the Nuggets may have to dangle players like Will Barton, Monte Morris, and possibly Zeke Nnaji as they pursue defensive upgrades. All three are solid contributors on reasonable contracts, but Bones Hyland‘s emergence and Murray’s return should help make at least one of Barton or Morris more expendable.

The Nuggets technically also have the ability to trade the No. 21 overall pick, though they’d have to wait until after the draft to officially move it, due to the rule preventing teams from leaving themselves without a first-rounder in two consecutive future drafts.

It won’t bring back an impact player on its own, but attaching the No. 21 selection to some combination of Barton, Morris, and/or Nnaji would be enough to open up some intriguing possibilities for Denver. On the other hand, the Nuggets’ roster is getting expensive and adding a low-cost rookie could help keep their tax bill in check, so perhaps they’ll hang onto this year’s first-rounder or attempt to move back into the second round rather than trading out of the draft entirely.

Booth and his basketball operations team will have several decisions to make on free agents, including DeMarcus Cousins, Austin Rivers, and Davon Reed. Cousins played well as a backup center behind Jokic and helped bring some toughness to the second unit — I’d expect Denver to try to re-sign him, as long as no other clubs offer him a sizeable raise. The Nuggets only have his Non-Bird rights.

Rivers’ and Reed’s futures could be tied to the Nuggets’ other roster moves. They’ve shown they’re capable of playing rotation minutes, but they’ll be pretty low on the depth chart if Murray, Hyland, Morris, and Barton are all still in the mix and may seek other opportunities in that scenario.

The Greens – JaMychal Green and Jeff Green – could both reach free agency if they turn down their respective player options. I’d consider Jeff far more likely to test the market than JaMychal, given that JaMychal’s option ($8.2MM) is the more expensive of the two and he’s coming off a down year.

Assuming JaMychal opts in, the Nuggets could use his expiring contract to help salary-match in a trade, potentially opening up a larger role for Nnaji. Jeff’s ability to knock down jump shots and guard multiple positions on defense makes him a valuable depth piece, but he’s entering his age-36 season, so the team won’t want to pay him too much more than his option amount ($4.5MM).

Jokic, Murray, and Morris are extension-eligible this offseason, but only Jokic is a sure thing to get a new deal — he and the team are expected to finalize a five-year, super-max agreement that will lock him up through the 2027/28 season. The timing probably isn’t right for an extension for Murray, who hasn’t played in over a year, or Morris, who would be ineligible to be traded for six months if he signs for more money or more years than extend-and-trade rules allow.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 21 overall pick ($2,770,920)
  • Total: $2,770,920

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nikola Jokic (veteran)
  • Monte Morris (veteran)
  • Jamal Murray (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $143MM+ in guaranteed money committed to just eight players, the Nuggets are on track to go well beyond the projected luxury tax line of $149MM, so they’ll be limited to the $6.4MM taxpayer mid-level exception unless they shed a contract or two.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Porter’s salary will be worth 25% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
  2. The cap holds for Daniels and Jefferson remain on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. The Nuggets could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 1 Share 0 Send via email0

Community Shootaround: Deandre Ayton’s Future

June 6th, 2022 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Suns center Deandre Ayton was one of the only notable members of the 2018 draft class who didn’t receive a rookie scale extension last offseason, but the two sides’ inability to reach a compromise was widely viewed as more of a minor inconvenience than a harbinger of trouble.

The expectation was that if Ayton showed in 2021/22 that he was worthy of a maximum-salary investment, Phoenix would either negotiate a new deal with him as a restricted free agent or match a rival team’s offer sheet.

However, ever since the 64-wins Suns were unexpectedly dispatched by Dallas in the second round of this year’s playoffs, speculation about the possibility of Ayton’s departure has begun to heat up.

Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report wrote last month of skepticism around the league that Phoenix will be eager to match a maximum-salary offer for the former No. 1 overall pick. Fischer suggested the Suns may be reluctant to pay any center $30MM+ per year and reported that head coach Monty Williams has “griped about Ayton’s waning focus.

James L. Edwards III and John Hollinger of The Athletic are the latest to suggest a change of scenery is a viable possibility for Ayton. The two Athletic reporters said in a story today that they’ve heard Ayton is “more likely than not” to leave the Suns this summer.

With that in mind, we want to get your thoughts on Ayton’s situation, starting with whether or not he has earned a maximum-salary investment. Centers aren’t as valuable in the modern game as they used to be, but Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid just finished first and second in MVP voting for a second straight year, and Ayton is a 23-year-old who can score (17.2 PPG), rebound (10.2 RPG), and play solid defense, even if he’s not an elite rim protector or outside shooter.

The Suns would be able to offer Ayton up to a projected $176.9MM over five years, while a rival suitor would be able to put a four-year, $131.2MM offer on the table. If Phoenix isn’t willing to give Ayton that five-year max deal, should another team be comfortable offering the four-year max?

While Hollinger expects the Suns to pursue a sign-and-trade deal if they let Ayton go, there are a small handful of teams that could realistically create the cap room necessary to offer him a $30MM+ starting salary without requiring a sign-and-trade and would be intriguing fits for the young center. The Spurs are one. The Pistons could potentially get there too.

If one of those teams pursues Ayton, should they be willing to bet on the Suns not matching an aggressive offer sheet, or should they negotiate a sign-and-trade to ensure they get their man?

In his story with Edwards, Hollinger suggests Detroit could structure a deal around Jerami Grant, while San Antonio could put together a package that includes Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson. I’m skeptical the Spurs would be eager about giving up that much value to sign Ayton to a maximum-salary contract unless they’re virtually certain the Suns would match it.

Are there other teams you think would aggressively pursue Ayton in sign-and-trade scenarios? Perhaps the Hornets, who have long been searching for a solution in the middle? The Hawks and Trail Blazers were other possible suitors mentioned in Fischer’s recent report.

Head to the comment section below to let us know how you think Ayton’s free agency will play out. Will he be back in Phoenix next season? If not, will the Suns get something back for him?

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 6th, 2022 at 2:42pm CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves envisioned themselves as a solid playoff contender entering the 2021/22 season, but national expectations were modest — oddsmakers gave the team an over/under of 34.5 wins, and our readers voted they’d fall short of that mark.

It turned out the Wolves were right to be bullish about their outlook. Following a 24-25 start, Minnesota was one of the NBA’s best teams down the stretch, finishing the year on a 22-11 run for an overall record of 46-36. The club then won its first play-in contest to lock up the No. 7 seed and put a scare into the No. 2 Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, pushing the series to six hard-fought games.

A 46-win season and a first-round playoff exit would be a disappointment for some franchises, but it represented a major step forward in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves haven’t won a postseason series since 2004 and had finished below .500 in 15 of 16 seasons prior to 2021/22.

The last time the Wolves won as many as 46 games and made the playoffs, in 2018, the team came apart shortly thereafter, trading away star wing Jimmy Butler and firing head coach Tom Thibodeau partway through the following season. This time around, the Wolves are set up better for lasting success, with 2020’s first overall pick Anthony Edwards still on the ascent, a solid leadership group in place, and none of the team’s core players looking for a way out of Minnesota.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan:

The Timberwolves’ offseason got off to an eventful start when they poached veteran basketball operations executive Tim Connelly from the division-rival Nuggets, hiring him to a five-year, $40MM contract to run their front office.

The addition of Connelly was a reflection of how far the franchise had come since the dismissal of Gersson Rosas, which occurred just ahead of the 2021/22 season amid rumors that Rosas had engaged in an inappropriate workplace relationship. At that time, the Timberwolves were the butt of the usual jokes, particularly due to the timing of the move, which occurred just before training camp got underway.

Eight months later, the Wolves were no longer a punchline, having put together an impressive coalition of front office talent that also includes executive VP of basketball operations Sachin Gupta – who took over from Rosas on an interim basis until Connelly’s arrival – and newly-hired senior VP of basketball operations Matt Lloyd, one of the league’s top scouting experts.

Incoming owners Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore have spoken repeatedly about wanting to make the Wolves a top-flight organization, and their willingness to pay big money for an experienced, highly regarded executive like Connelly showed it wasn’t all talk.

One of Connelly’s first orders of business in Minnesota will be determining what to do with D’Angelo Russell, who is entering the final year of his maximum-salary contract. Russell has been up and down since arriving in Minnesota, displaying the offensive arsenal that made him an All-Star during his last season in Brooklyn, but also no-showing in big games – he scored more than 12 points just once in this year’s six playoff contests – and often exhibiting little resistance on defense.

Russell will earn $31.4MM in 2022/23, but he probably isn’t worth investing in at that price – or higher – going forward. On the other hand, he likely wouldn’t bring back a significant return on the trade market, and his close friendship with star center Karl-Anthony Towns shouldn’t be overlooked.

Unless the Wolves get unexpectedly impressed by a trade offer for Russell, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they try to negotiate an extension with him at a slightly lesser rate. Something in the neighborhood of the deals signed last summer by Mike Conley with Utah (three years, $68MM) or Lonzo Ball with Chicago (four years, $80MM) might make some sense for both sides.

Towns is also extension-eligible, having qualified for a super-max when he made the All-NBA Third Team this year — it seems likely the Wolves will put that offer on the table for him. It would be a four-year contract that begins in 2024/25 and would be worth 35% of that season’s cap, meaning it could well be worth in excess of $50MM per year.

That may seem like an exorbitant amount to pay a player who probably doesn’t rank among the NBA’s top 10 stars and may never break into that group, but the league’s salary cap continues to rise, and Minnesota isn’t exactly a premier free agent destination. If an All-NBA caliber player is willing to stick with the team long-term, the Wolves need to do what they can to make it happen.

If the Wolves retain Russell, Malik Beasley and his pseudo-expiring $15.6MM contract (he has a $16.5MM team option for 2023/24) might be their most logical salary-matching piece in any major trade. If the right two-way threat is available on the trade market, Beasley and the No. 19 pick would be a good starting point for an outgoing package.

But the Wolves won’t be looking to give Beasley away. He has been one of their top three-point threats since arriving in Minnesota (.389 3PT%) and can hold his own on defense. It’s also worth noting that Connelly was part of the Nuggets front office that drafted Beasley in the first round of 2016, so the new president of basketball operations will likely feel some form of attachment to the 25-year-old.

While their roster will get more expensive in future seasons, the Wolves still have the flexibility to re-sign Taurean Prince, a useful contributor at forward, and pursue another rotation player using their mid-level exception. I’d expect any new contracts Minnesota completes with role players this summer to span no more than one or two seasons, allowing the team to maintain some flexibility for 2024, when pricey new deals for Towns and Edwards would go into effect.

If the Wolves hang onto the No. 19 pick, they should feel encouraged by Connelly’s track record of finding diamonds in the rough later on in the draft. He can’t realistically be expected to top his selection of Nikola Jokic (No. 41 overall in 2014), but Beasley, Monte Morris, Zeke Nnaji, and Bones Hyland are among the players Connelly’s Nuggets have drafted at No. 19 or later since 2016.

Minnesota also has three second-round picks between Nos. 40 and 50, at least a couple of which could traded for other assets, since the club doesn’t have four roster spots to hand to rookies.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • Josh Okogie ($5,857,966 qualifying offer / $12,263,712 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $12,263,712

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($3,006,840)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 48 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 50 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,006,840

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Malik Beasley (veteran)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran) 3
  • Naz Reid (veteran) 3
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Wolves bring back their nine players on guaranteed contracts, plus Nowell, Reid, and their first-round pick, they’d be just over the projected cap at $122.5MM for 12 players. That would give them plenty of room below the projected tax line ($149MM) to re-sign Prince and use their full mid-level exception — and possibly even their bi-annual exception, depending on Prince’s price tag.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $4,750,000

Footnotes

  1. Nowell’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Reid’s salary will remain non-guaranteed until July 20 even if his option is exercised.
  3. Nowell and Reid would only be eligible if their options are exercised.
  4. The cap holds for Turner and Brooks remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0
Load More Posts