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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 17th, 2022 at 3:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the Suns finished the 2019/20 season by winning eight straight games, it was still their sixth straight season under .500, so when they followed it up by going 51-21 and making the NBA Finals in ’20/21, it came as a major surprise.

That ’20/21 performance put the Suns firmly in the conversation as contenders heading into ’21/22, meaning they didn’t catch anyone off guard with another hot start last fall. But not many league observers expected that hot streak to essentially last the entire regular season, as the club took yet another significant step forward by winning an NBA-high 64 games.

Phoenix’s rise came to an abrupt halt in the second round of the postseason, when the team failed to slow down Luka Doncic and fell to the underdog Mavericks in seven games. It cast a shadow over what was otherwise a terrific year and raises questions about where the club goes from here.

Are more roster upgrades needed to seriously contend for a title, or was this a championship-caliber team that just had a bad series? And how will Chris Paul‘s age, Deandre Ayton‘s free agency, and the ongoing investigation into team owner Robert Sarver‘s alleged workplace misconduct factor into the Suns’ outlook going forward?

The Suns’ Offseason Plan:

Let’s start with Ayton, the Suns’ only core player who isn’t already under contract for the 2022/23 season. He’ll be eligible for restricted free agency this offseason after failing to agree to an extension with the team last fall. Even though Phoenix was unwilling to give Ayton a five-year, maximum-salary contract a year ago, there had long been an expectation that the two sides would have an easier time reaching an agreement this summer — if not a max deal, then something very close to it.

However, since the night the Suns were eliminated from the playoffs – in a Game 7 in which Ayton was benched after playing just 17 minutes – one report after another has suggested that the big man’s return to Phoenix won’t be a foregone conclusion after all. Multiple reporters have identified the former No. 1 overall pick as potentially the biggest name to change teams this summer.

Ayton’s free agency will be fascinating for a few reasons. For one, despite the fact that the Suns apparently aren’t enthusiastic about paying Ayton $30MM+ per year on his next deal, all of those aforementioned reports have been adamant that the team won’t just let him walk away for nothing and will look to negotiate a sign-and-trade deal.

Given that so few teams have the ability to create enough cap space to sign Ayton outright, perhaps that’s how his free agency will play out. But it would be fascinating to see how Phoenix would respond if a rival suitor signs Ayton to a four-year max offer sheet. Would the Suns match it and plan on potentially trading Ayton down the road, despite the fact that his salary would put them well over the luxury tax line for the time being? The potential for a game of free agency “chicken” here is intriguing.

If the Suns do engage in sign-and-trade talks for Ayton, those negotiations will be complicated by the fact that base year compensation rules will apply to his new contract. On a maximum-salary deal, Ayton’s outgoing salary from Phoenix’s perspective would be just $15.25MM, while his incoming salary for a new team would be $30.5MM. Bridging that gap and making sure both teams are adhering to the NBA’s salary-matching rules will be tricky if Ayton’s new team is over the cap.

It’s virtually unprecedented for a free agent of Ayton’s caliber to accept his qualifying offer rather than negotiating a longer-term contract, but no player coming off a rookie scale contract has ever been eligible for a qualifying offer as lucrative as Ayton’s ($16.4MM), so it’s worth mentioning as a fallback option. If he were to accept that one-year QO, Ayton would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2023. It’s a long shot, but if the Suns play hardball with possible sign-and-trade partners and Ayton decides he doesn’t want to stay in Phoenix, it’s an option.

Based on the reporting to date, it sounds like the Suns’ preferred outcome would be to replace Ayton with a starting-caliber player earning in the $15-20MM range and to not spend maximum-salary money on their starting center. We’ll see if the right opportunity arises – for both Ayton and the Suns – to make that happen.

While resolving Ayton’s contract situation will be their top priority, the Suns will have to address their backup slots at point guard and center, where Aaron Holiday, Elfrid Payton, JaVale McGee, and Bismack Biyombo are all eligible for free agency. How Phoenix approaches those spots will depend in part on whether Ayton returns — or possibly on how much salary the team takes back in an Ayton sign-and-trade.

Sarver doesn’t have a reputation as an owner who spends big on player salaries and likely won’t be particularly enthusiastic about going deep into tax territory, so if Phoenix projects to be a taxpayer, I’d count on the team filling out its depth chart at point guard and center primarily with minimum-salary signings. If Ayton doesn’t return, the club would have more flexibility below the luxury tax line, opening the door to use its mid-level exception and perhaps to re-sign players like Holiday and McGee, who should command more than the minimum.

Devin Booker, Cameron Johnson, and Dario Saric are among the other Suns worth keeping an eye this offseason.

Booker qualified for a super-max contract extension when he made an All-NBA team this spring. If the Suns put a super-max offer on the table, it would add four more years to the two remaining on his current deal, starting at 35% of the 2024/25 cap. Even if we project a relatively conservative $130MM cap for ’24/25, that super-max contract would be worth in excess of $50MM per year.

There’s no guarantee the Suns move forward on that extension immediately, but it would cover Booker’s prime years (starting with his age-28 season) and Paul’s contract would be coming off the books by that point, so it would make sense for the two sides to get it done this summer.

Johnson will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and has probably earned a deal at least in the range of what fellow sharpshooter Kevin Huerter got from Atlanta a year ago (four years, $65MM). The Suns don’t necessarily have to push to finalize an agreement with Johnson before the 2022/23 season, since he’d be a restricted free agent next summer. But if they can get a relatively team-friendly price, like they did with Mikal Bridges, it’s worth pursuing.

Saric, meanwhile, will be returning from a torn ACL as he enters the final year of his contract. His $9.2MM expiring deal makes him a logical trade candidate, either in a salary-dump deal or in a package for a rotation player. However, at least one recent report suggested Phoenix is hopeful Saric can return to form as a frontcourt piece who can stretch the floor, and may not be looking to move him after all.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Devin Booker (veteran)
  • Jae Crowder (veteran)
  • Cameron Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Dario Saric (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $128MM in guaranteed money committed to nine players, the Suns will, at the very least, operate over the projected $122MM cap in 2022/23.

The Ayton situation will dictate whether they end up over the projected tax line ($149MM) as well, but that looks like a good bet at this point — even if Ayton doesn’t return, Phoenix could end up taking on upwards of $20MM in salary in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 1

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. The Suns could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Top 50 NBA Free Agents Of 2022

June 17th, 2022 at 7:40am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s 2022 free agent period will tip off in less than two weeks, with teams and players permitted to agree to tentative deals as soon as June 30.

Listed below are our top 50 free agents for the 2022/23 NBA season.

While most of these players are on track to become unrestricted or restricted free agents, some have player or team options for ’22/23. Our list only includes the players we view as realistic bets to become free agents, which means a vet like Russell Westbrook, who is extremely unlikely to decline his $47MM+ player option, isn’t included. A player like Trey Lyles, who will almost certainly have his team option exercised, also doesn’t show up on this list.

Players who have contracts for next season aren’t listed here either, even if they’re candidates to be released. That group includes players like Danilo Gallinari, whose $21.45MM salary for 2022/23 is only partially guaranteed for $5MM.

We’ll update this list periodically leading up to June 30 to reflect the latest option decisions. For example, if James Harden picks up his player option for 2022/23, he’ll be removed from this list, with everyone below him moving up a spot and a new player entering the mix at No. 50. If Gallinari is waived, he’d be a good candidate to move into the top 50, bumping the 50th-ranked player off the list.

Our rankings take into account both a player’s short-term and long-term value. If we were to consider solely a player’s worth for the 2022/23 season, veterans like P.J. Tucker and Thaddeus Young would likely place higher, while younger free agents with upside, such as Donte DiVincenzo or Nic Claxton, might be ranked lower.

In addition to the players listed below, there are plenty of other notable free agents available this summer. You can check out our breakdowns of free agents by position/type and by team for the full picture.

Here are our top 50 free agents of 2022:

1. Bradley Beal, G, Wizards
Four or five players have a legitimate case to be considered this summer’s top free agent. I’m giving the nod to Beal despite a disappointing 2021/22 season in which he was limited to 40 games and made just 30.0% of his three-pointers. Even in his down year, Beal continued to expand his ability as a play-maker, posting a career high 6.6 APG. And in each of the two prior seasons, he averaged more than 30 points per game. He’s entering his age-29 season, so there’s no reason not to believe a bounce-back year is in the cards, along with a potential $200MM+ contract this summer.

2. Zach LaVine, G, Bulls
Despite being affected by a knee issue in 2021/22, LaVine has averaged 25.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.7 APG on .491/.404/.851 shooting in his last two seasons in Chicago, earning his first two All-Star nods. By all accounts, his knee injury – which he addressed surgically in May – shouldn’t be a long-term concern, so the 27-year-old is in line for a massive payday this offseason, likely from the Bulls.

3. James Harden, G, Sixers
Harden appeared to be on track for the biggest contract of any of this year’s free agents, but an underwhelming 2021/22 season by his standards (22.0 PPG, 10.3 APG, .410/.330/.877 shooting) has raised some new concerns — and forcing a trade for a second consecutive year didn’t exactly burnish his image. Harden will turn 33 years old in August, so it’s conceivable that this season represented the start of his decline rather than a blip on the radar. Of course, even if Harden doesn’t recapture his MVP form, he’s still one of the NBA’s most talented play-makers and a dangerous scorer. He and the Sixers appear likely to compromise on a lucrative shorter-term deal.

4. Deandre Ayton, C, Suns (RFA)
The Suns didn’t give Ayton the five-year, maximum-salary contract extension he wanted a year ago and seem unlikely to put that offer on the table now that he’s a restricted free agent. That has opened the door for a possible Ayton exit, especially if another team is willing to offer him a four-year max deal (worth a projected $131MM). The Suns will do their best to create the impression they’ll match any offer sheet so that any rival suitor serious about landing the former No. 1 overall pick will have to negotiate a sign-and-trade.

5. Jalen Brunson, G, Mavericks
After locking up their first-round pick from the 2018 draft last year when they extended Luka Doncic, the Mavericks will face a more complicated negotiation this year with 2018’s second-rounder. Brunson has steadily improved in each of his four NBA seasons, putting up 16.3 PPG and 4.8 APG with a .502/.373/.840 shooting line in 2021/22. Perhaps most impressively, he thrived in the playoffs both with and without Doncic available, averaging 21.6 PPG overall as the Mavs got to within three games of the NBA Finals. Dallas faces serious competition from the Knicks and will likely have to give Brunson a fifth year and an annual salary of $25MM-ish to retain him.

6. Miles Bridges, F, Hornets (RFA)
Bridges reportedly passed on a four-year extension offer worth approximately $60MM last fall, which was the right call at the time and only looked smarter as the season progressed. As a restricted free agent this summer, it’s not out of the question that Bridges could double that figure. The 24-year-old forward saw his three-point percentage dip a little in 2021/22, from 40.0% to 33.1%, but otherwise improved across the board, establishing new career highs in PPG (20.2), RPG (7.0), and APG (3.8) while playing solid defense and exhibiting first-rate durability — his 2,837 minutes ranked second in the NBA.
Note: Bridges was arrested on felony domestic violence charges on the eve of free agency.

7. Anfernee Simons, G, Trail Blazers (RFA)
After generating buzz for years as a prospect, Simons began seriously delivering on that promise in his fourth season, averaging 17.3 PPG and 3.9 APG with a .405 3PT%. He boosted those numbers to 23.4 PPG and 5.8 APG with a .423 3PT% following Damian Lillard‘s abdominal injury. The Trail Blazers cleared space for him both on their cap and in their lineup by trading CJ McCollum in February, so it would be a surprise if he doesn’t remain in Portland.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

June 16th, 2022 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

After winning their first championship in 50 years in 2020/21, the Bucks followed it up with a stellar title defense in ’21/22.

Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo turned in another MVP-caliber performance, leading Milwaukee to a 51-win season. The Bucks had the third-best offense in the NBA, despite the fact that their three stars – Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday – all missed at least 15 games due to various injuries, while starting center Brook Lopez was limited to just 13 total appearances due to back surgery.

The Bucks entered the playoffs looking capable of making a deep run and quickly dispatched the Bulls in the first round, but Middleton sustained a knee injury during that series that ultimately ended his season, removing one of the team’s best two-way threats from the chess board for the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Milwaukee still made it a competitive series, but fell to Boston in a hard-fought seven games.

With Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Holiday all under contract going forward, the Bucks appear unlikely to make serious changes to their core, but will face some important decisions on members of their supporting cast.

The Bucks’ Offseason Plan:

A handful of key Bucks rotation players are eligible for free agency, including three wings: Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews, and Jordan Nwora.

While it’s possible Connaughton will simply pick up his $5.7MM player option and postpone his free agency until 2023, he’s coming off the best year of his career — he averaged a career-high 9.9 PPG and shot 39.5% from outside the arc in 65 games (26.0 MPG). He has earned a raise and the Bucks hold his Bird rights, so they have the cap flexibility to give it to him as long as they’re comfortable paying the associated tax penalty.

Matthews will be entering his age-36 season and can’t be counted on to play as big a role as he did earlier in his career in Portland and Dallas, but he and the Bucks have established a good relationship, so perhaps he’ll be back on a minimum-salary contract to fill out the roster.

Nwora’s free agency will be more interesting. Although he wasn’t part of the playoff rotation, the 23-year-old took some promising steps forward in his second NBA season, bumping his scoring average to 7.9 PPG and hitting 34.8% of his threes. An athletic forward with some defensive upside, Nwora could be a useful piece for Milwaukee going forward — the Bucks will have to hope no rival suitors aggressively try to pry the restricted free agent away from them.

In the frontcourt, Bobby Portis has played on a below-market deal in each of the last two seasons, but has certainly earned a raise, particularly after filling in for Lopez at center for much of 2021/22. Holding his Early Bird rights, the Bucks will be able to give Portis a deal starting up to approximately $11MM. It will be interesting to see whether they’re more inclined to pay up for Portis than they were for P.J. Tucker a year ago.

Even if the Bucks retain Portis, more changes at the center spot could be around the corner. Lopez is coming off back surgery, is 34 years old, and will be on an expiring $13.9MM contract in 2022/23, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his name pops up in trade rumors. While Lopez’s ability to hit three-pointers and protect the rim has value, the Bucks would probably love to have a center more capable of handling switches and guarding out to the perimeter.

In his prime, Serge Ibaka was that sort of player, but he’s coming off a back surgery of his own and didn’t look like his old self this past season. If his medicals look OK and he’s willing to sign at a bargain rate, perhaps a return to Milwaukee is possible, but otherwise I’d expect the club to look elsewhere for center depth.

While Bucks ownership has shown that it’s prepared to pay luxury tax bills, I don’t get the sense that they’re willing to go into Warriors or Clippers territory, so if Portis, Connaughton, and Nwora all seek raises, I wouldn’t necessarily count on all three returning — one of the wings could be the odd man out.

Depending on how much they spend to retain their own free agents, the Bucks may try to bring in another rotation piece using the taxpayer mid-level exception. It’ll be worth about $6.4MM, but spending it could cost exponentially more if team salary is well above the tax line.

One move to watch out for is the possibility of the Bucks trading down in the draft from No. 24 to the second round. Even though late first-round picks aren’t particularly expensive, second-rounders who are on minimum-salary contracts are significantly more affordable for tax purposes. So if, for instance, Orlando is willing to offer No. 32 and No. 35 to move up to No. 24, I think the Bucks would be intrigued by the idea, since locking in a couple low-cost roster spots may make them more comfortable about spending elsewhere.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 24 overall pick ($2,451,840)
  • Total: $2,451,840

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Pat Connaughton (veteran) 2
  • Brook Lopez (veteran)
  • Khris Middleton (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $140MM+ in guaranteed money committed to just six players, the Bucks are on track to go well beyond the projected $149MM tax line even if they just let all their free agents walk and trade their first-round pick. More realistically, at least one of those two free agents will be back and Milwaukee’s team salary will likely increase beyond the $160MM spent on player salaries this past season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 4
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981

Footnotes

  1. Vildoza’s salary will become partially guaranteed ($500K) after the first day of the regular season.
  2. Connaughton would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  3. The cap hold for Teague remains on the Bucks’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

June 15th, 2022 at 2:35pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies made the play-in tournament in 2020 and then earned the West’s No. 8 seed in 2021, making it clear they were a team on the rise. Still, not many of us expected that rise to accelerate as quickly as it did in 2021/22, when Memphis won 56 games, the second-most in the NBA.

While Ja Morant‘s ascent to an All-NBA level played a significant part in the Grizzlies’ own ascent up the standings – and earned him a Most Improved Player award – Taylor Jenkins‘ team exhibited an impressive ability to win even without its star point guard in the lineup. Memphis went 20-5 in games Morant missed, finding a way to get positive contributions from players far down on the depth chart.

The growth of a young squad like the Grizzlies isn’t always linear, so we shouldn’t pencil the team in for 60-plus wins in 2022/23. But with Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. around for the long haul and several solid supporting players around them, Memphis has a solid foundation to build on and, barring disaster, shouldn’t backslide into lottery territory anytime soon.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan:

I referred above to Morant as “around for the long haul,” but he and the Grizzlies still need to make that official. That should be one of the first – and most straightforward – orders of business for the team this offseason. Morant will become eligible on July 1 for a maximum-salary rookie scale extension, and I expect Memphis to immediately put that offer on the table.

The Grizzlies’ offer will likely include Rose Rule language that allows Morant to earn a starting salary of up to 30% of the 2023/24 salary cap (instead of 25%) if he meets certain performance criteria. Even though he earned an All-NBA spot this year, Morant would have to make an All-NBA team again next season to qualify for the higher max — the Rose Rule criteria require a player to make All-NBA in either the season before his new contract goes into effect or in two of the three prior seasons.

About a week before they complete an extension with Morant, the Grizzlies will have some decisions to make on draft night. Namely, do they want to use their two first-round selections to add more young players to their current core, or is it time to start cashing in some of their draft picks for veteran help?

Memphis holds the 22nd and 29th overall picks this year and narrowly missed out on adding a third first-rounder in the lottery. The Grizzlies are perhaps the only one of 29 rivals disappointed by just how badly the Lakers struggled this season, since they would’ve acquired L.A.’s first-round pick if it had ended up outside of the top 10. The Lakers finished so far down the standings that their pick landed at No. 8 and went to New Orleans instead, denying the Grizzlies an opportunity to truly load up on 2022 draft assets. Instead of the Lakers’ first-rounder, they received a pair of second-rounders, including this year’s No. 47 pick.

Without that extra first-rounder, the Grizzlies won’t have as many options to take a truly big swing — neither the No. 22 nor No. 29 pick will bring back an impact player on its own, though perhaps the team will explore attaching one or both selections to a player like Steven Adams or Dillon Brooks in search of an upgrade. Adams, Brooks, and Brandon Clarke are among Memphis’ rotation players who will be entering contract years and will be eligible for extensions this offseason.

Keeping one or both first-round picks isn’t a bad fall-back option. After all, this Grizzlies front office snagged Desmond Bane with the 30th overall pick of the 2020 draft. A pick that successful won’t be easy to replicate, but it’s a reminder that finding a core piece late in the first round isn’t out of the question.

The Grizzlies also face major decisions on a pair of key free agents, Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson, and it’ll be fascinating to see how the team approaches negotiations with two of its top ball-handlers.

Few point guards take care of the ball like Jones, who has led all qualifying players in assist-to-turnover ratio for four straight seasons. He also knocked down a career-high 39.0% of his three-point attempts in 2021/22.

Memphis would presumably like to bring Jones back, but the club should be wary of trying to outbid rival suitors if he’s offered more than mid-level type money. He averaged just 17.1 MPG in his 50 games as a reserve this season and doesn’t project to be part of the team’s starting or closing lineups going forward. If the Grizzlies are willing to go up to the neighborhood of $12-15MM per year for Jones, it’s likely because they have some concerns about Morant’s durability and view Jones as a reliable insurance policy.

Anderson, meanwhile, took a step back in ’21/22 following his best season as a pro a year earlier, but he has proven during his four years in Memphis to be a reliable secondary play-maker and a versatile defender, playing minutes both on the wing and as a small-ball power forward. The Grizzlies have enough depth that they shouldn’t feel pressure to overpay Anderson, but it would be nice to have him back, especially if there’s any uncertainty about whether 2021 first-rounders Ziaire Williams and Santi Aldama are ready for increased roles.

There are a couple other factors the Grizzlies must consider as they debate whether to bring back Jones and/or Anderson. One is their salary cap situation — the team could theoretically clear upwards of $20MM in cap space by letting those two players walk, which could come in handy in free agency or on the trade market.

The other factor to consider is Memphis’ roster count. Retaining John Konchar and using both of their first-round picks would leave the Grizzlies with 14 players under contract and only one open spot on their 15-man regular season roster. Making a consolidation (ie. two-for-one) trade or moving one or both of their first-rounders could help clear that logjam if the Grizzlies want to ensure there’s room for both Jones and Anderson without waiving any players on guaranteed salaries.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • John Konchar ($1,460,000) 1
  • Total: $1,460,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 22 overall pick ($2,660,280)
  • No. 29 overall pick ($2,180,520)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,840,800

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Steven Adams (veteran)
  • Dillon Brooks (veteran)
  • Brandon Clarke (rookie scale)
  • John Konchar (veteran)
  • De’Anthony Melton (veteran)
  • Ja Morant (rookie scale)
  • Xavier Tillman (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

We’re assuming the Grizzlies will attempt to re-sign at least one of Anderson and Jones and will operate as an over-the-cap team, but they don’t necessarily have to go in that direction.

Memphis could open up nearly $20MM in cap space simply by letting their free agents walk, and could push that number even higher by trading one or both of their first-round picks or some guaranteed salary.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $4,054,695
  • Trade exception: $1,018,012
  • Trade exception: $119,844

Footnotes

  1. Konchar’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 3.
  2. The Grizzlies can’t offer Culver a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his 2022/23 rookie scale option was declined.
  3. These are projected values. If the Grizzlies decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exceptions) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 14th, 2022 at 5:31pm CST by Luke Adams

With his offseason trade request unresolved by the time the Sixers‘ season tipped off last October, the Ben Simmons saga was the dominant storyline looming over the franchise for the first half of 2021/22. The former No. 1 overall pick, citing mental health issues, didn’t just want to be traded — he didn’t want to ever play a game for Philadelphia again. He chose to sit out indefinitely and give up game checks while he waited for a deal to materialize.

The Sixers, led by a healthy Joel Embiid, held their own in the Eastern Conference playoff race without Simmons. And when they finally found a taker for him in February, they were able to pry former MVP James Harden away from the Nets, securing a more substantial return for their disgruntled All-Star than many league observers anticipated. With Embiid and Harden leading the way, the 76ers looked like legitimate title contenders.

Or that was the plan, at least. In actuality, Harden – perhaps bothered by a lingering hamstring injury – only occasionally looked like his old MVP self after arriving in Philadelphia, posting career-worst shooting averages (.402 FG%, .326 3PT%) in 21 regular season appearances as a Sixer and failing to elevate his game in the playoffs. Additionally, the 76ers’ depth, which was already somewhat lacking, took a hit in the Simmons deal when the team surrendered role players Seth Curry and Andre Drummond.

Embiid’s MVP-caliber play was enough to get the Sixers past the first round, but their season ended in the Eastern Conference Semifinals when they failed to solve Miami’s defense, registering an offensive rating (105.0) that was eight points below their regular season mark.

While the 76ers will be happy to have the Simmons standoff behind them, there are plenty of new questions for the front office to answer this offseason as Philadelphia attempts to get back to the NBA Finals for the first time in over two decades.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan:

Harden was still an elite play-maker after joining the Sixers, averaging 10.5 assists per game down the stretch. But his shooting numbers and his relatively modest scoring average (his 21.0 PPG represented his lowest mark since he was a sixth man in Oklahoma City) are somewhat concerning for a 76ers team that will have to decide how significantly to invest in him this offseason.

You could talk yourself into the idea that Harden simply needed some time to adjust to a new team and a new system while dealing with the after-effects of a hamstring injury. And if you believe that, a long-term, maximum-salary contract this offseason is justifiable.

On the other hand, if you feel as if Harden’s declining numbers were more about his age (he’ll turn 33 in August) and you’re skeptical that he’ll ever recapture his Houston-era form, the prospect of paying him an average of $50MM+ per year for the next four or five seasons is worrisome, to say the least.

Harden has a $47.4MM player option for 2022/23 and will have to make a formal decision on it by June 29. Philadelphia’s ideal scenario might see Harden opting in for next season and giving the team an extra year to determine what his next contract should look like, but I suspect the 10-time All-Star won’t pick up that option unless he knows an extension is coming.

If the Sixers are reluctant about putting a lucrative long-term extension on the table, Harden could attempt to force their hand by opting out and becoming a free agent — he’d just need to be confident that at least one rival suitor would be prepared to seriously pursue him, creating leverage and putting pressure on Philadelphia to make a long-term offer.

Given how fond president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is of Harden, I expect the two sides will reach an agreement of some sort. It may not be a fully guaranteed five-year maximum-salary contract, but it feels like Harden has at least one more big payday coming this summer.

Re-signing Harden will ensure the Sixers operate well over the cap this offseason, so their options in free agency will be limited. Assuming Harden opts in or signs a new maximum-salary contract, Philadelphia would have to get creative in order to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or to acquire players via sign-and-trade (doing either would hard-cap team salary at around $155MM).

Taking the cap situation into account, the trade market may be Morey’s best bet to pursue roster upgrades, though the Sixers aren’t exactly loaded with trade assets either. The team has already sent out its 2023, 2025, and 2027 first-round picks and won’t want to part with breakout guard Tyrese Maxey.

Inexpensive young players like Matisse Thybulle, Jaden Springer, Shake Milton, Paul Reed, and Isaiah Joe would have value, but the 76ers may view some of those players as long-term keepers rather than trade chips. The club will soon have to make a decision on which category Thybulle, who is extension-eligible this offseason, falls into. Philadelphia has been reluctant to include him in trades to this point, but he hasn’t proven he can be a consistent two-way threat — he was a liability on offense in the postseason, barely warranting any attention from opposing defenses.

Of course, to acquire veteran talent, the Sixers will need to start with a more substantial salary-matching piece than those low-priced youngsters. Danny Green‘s $10MM expiring contract is one option, but it’s non-guaranteed, meaning it would count as $0 for outgoing purposes. The team could partially or fully guarantee that $10MM to make it more useful for salary matching, but the larger the guarantee, the less it’ll appeal to potential trade partners, since Green may not play at all in 2022/23 as he recovers from a torn ACL.

The Sixers have a more intriguing potential trade candidate in Tobias Harris, who is under contract for nearly $77MM for two more years. He’s far more expensive than Green and is on a multiyear deal, but he’s also healthy and would be a useful on-court contributor in ’22/23.

The 76ers would probably love to turn Harris’ salary slot into a more impactful third star, or perhaps into multiple rotation players with more reasonable cap hits, but doing so won’t be easy. At $38MM+ per year, Harris is – at best – a neutral value and will likely be viewed by most teams as a negative asset. Getting a solid return back for him would require the Sixers to attach young players and/or draft assets.

Because the Nets opted to defer their acquisition of the Sixers’ first-round pick to 2023, Philadelphia does have the No. 23 pick in this year’s draft, which could be used either in a trade or to add another affordable young player to the roster. I suspect Morey would prefer to trade the pick for a win-now piece — if the team goes that route, it’ll have to wait until after the draft to officially complete the deal, due to the Stepien rule.

Georges Niang and Furkan Korkmaz are two more possible trade candidates, though Korkmaz is coming off a down year and has two guaranteed seasons left on his contract, reducing his appeal to teams seeking flexibility.

Morey is known for his willingness to think outside the box, so it won’t be a surprise if the Sixers do some creative roster shuffling this summer and manage to add some solid complementary pieces, including perhaps a replacement for Green on the wing and a reliable backup center behind Embiid. But the team won’t have as much flexibility as it would like to make that happen.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 23 overall pick ($2,553,960)
  • Total: $2,553,960

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • James Harden (veteran) 3
  • Tobias Harris (veteran)
  • Isaiah Joe (veteran)
  • Shake Milton (veteran) 3
  • Matisse Thybulle (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Letting Harden walk would actually open up a not-insignificant chunk of cap space for the Sixers, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that happens. If Harden simply opts in, all that cap room goes away and Philadelphia will have over $136MM committed to just eight players, putting team salary well on its way to approaching or surpassing the projected luxury tax threshold of $149MM.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Green’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 1.
  2. Joe’s salary will become fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. Harden and Milton would only be eligible if their options are exercised.
  4. The cap holds for Scott and O’Quinn remain on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Sixers approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Early NBA Salary Guarantee Dates For 2022/23

June 14th, 2022 at 7:55am CST by Luke Adams

A player who has a non-guaranteed salary for a given season will, by default, receive his full guarantee if he remains under contract through January 7 of that league year. Because the league-wide salary guarantee date is January 10, a player must clear waivers before that date if a team wants to avoid being on the hook for his full salary.

However, a handful of players who have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2022/23 have earlier trigger dates. Those players will receive either their full guarantees or an increased partial guarantee on certain dates before January 7, assuming they’re not waived.

These dates are fairly malleable — if a player and team reach an agreement, a salary guarantee deadline can be pushed back.

For example, if a player’s contract calls for him to receive his full guarantee on June 28, his team could ask him to move that date to the first or second week of July to get a better sense of what will happen in free agency before making a final decision. The player doesn’t have to agree, but it could be in his best interest to push back his guarantee date rather than simply being waived.

Those agreements between a player and team aren’t always reported right away, so our list of early salary guarantee dates is a tentative one. When a player’s salary guarantee date passes, our assumption is that he received his guarantee, but it’s possible he and his team negotiated a new guarantee date that simply hasn’t been made public yet. We’ll update the info below as necessary in the coming weeks and months.

Here are the early salary guarantee dates for 2022/23:

June 21:

  • Mason Plumlee (Hornets): Partial guarantee ($4,262,500) increases to full guarantee ($9,080,417). (✅)

June 24:

  • Zach Collins (Spurs): Partial guarantee ($3,675,000) increases to full guarantee ($7,350,000). (✅)

June 25:

  • Josh Hart (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($12,960,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 28:

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Wizards): Partial guarantee ($4,888,118) increases to full guarantee ($14,004,703). (✅)
    • Note: Caldwell-Pope was subsequently traded to the Nuggets.

June 29:

  • Chimezie Metu (Kings): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,910,860) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Max Strus (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,815,677) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,815,677) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,752,638) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 30:

  • Juan Hernangomez (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($7,307,130) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Theo Maledon (Thunder): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,900,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Kelly Oubre (Hornets): Partial guarantee ($5,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($12,600,000). (✅)
  • Moritz Wagner (Magic): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,878,720) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 1:

  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,752,638) becomes partially guaranteed ($50,000). (✅)
  • Ish Smith (Wizards): Non-guaranteed salary ($4,725,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
    • Note: Caldwell-Pope was subsequently traded to the Nuggets.

July 3:

  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): Non-guaranteed salary ($9,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • John Konchar (Grizzlies): Partial guarantee ($840,000) increases to full guarantee ($2,300,000). (✅)
  • Isaiah Roby (Thunder): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,930,681) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
    • Note: Roby was waived by Thunder prior to this salary guarantee date, but was claimed by the Spurs.

July 4:

  • Dalano Banton (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($150,000) increases to $300,000. (✅)
  • Frank Ntilikina (Mavericks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,036,318) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 7:

  • Nick Richards (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,782,621) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 8:

  • Danilo Gallinari (Hawks): Partial guarantee ($13,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($21,450,000). (❌)

July 10:

  • Eric Bledsoe (Trail Blazers): Partial guarantee ($3,900,000) increases to full guarantee ($19,375,000). (❌)
  • Terry Taylor (Pacers): Partial guarantee ($625,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,563,518). (✅)

July 15:

  • Duane Washington (Pacers): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,563,518) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

July 20:

  • Naz Reid (Timberwolves): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,930,681) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

August 1:

  • Armoni Brooks (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($50,000) increases to $250,000. (❌)
  • Tre Jones (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,782,621) becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000). (✅)
  • Jalen McDaniels (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,930,681) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

August 15:

  • Luke Kornet (Celtics): Partial guarantee ($100,000) increases to $300,000. (✅)

Team’s first game of regular season:

  • Dalano Banton (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($300,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,563,518). (✅)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,878,720) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Justin Champagnie (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($325,000) increases to $825,000. (✅)
  • Matthew Dellavedova (Kings): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,628,597) becomes partially guaranteed ($250,000). (✅)
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Partial guarantee ($50,000) increases to $400,000. (✅)
  • Josh Jackson (Raptors): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,133,278) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Isaiah Joe (Sixers): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,782,621) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Tre Jones (Spurs): Partial guarantee ($500,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,782,621). (✅)
  • Luke Kornet (Celtics): Partial guarantee ($300,000) increases to $1,066,639. (✅)
  • Chima Moneke (Kings): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $500,000. (✅)
  • Markieff Morris (Nets): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,905,581) becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000). (✅)
  • KZ Okpala (Kings): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $500,000. (✅)
  • Edmond Sumner (Nets): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $500,000. (✅)
  • D.J. Wilson (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to full guarantee ($2,133,278). (❌)

December 1:

  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Partial guarantee ($400,000) increases to $700,000. (✅)

December 10:

  • Markieff Morris (Nets): Partial guarantee ($500,000) increases to $1,000,000. (✅)

January 1:

  • Justin Champagnie (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($825,000) increases to full guarantee ($1,637,966). (❌)
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Poll: Which Team Will Win NBA Finals?

June 13th, 2022 at 9:12am CST by Luke Adams

Four games into the NBA Finals, neither the Warriors nor the Celtics have put their stamp on the series and established themselves as the clear-cut frontrunner to win the 2022 title.

Both teams have won once at home and once on the road. Both have continued to avoid losing streaks of any kind — the Celtics are 7-0 in the postseason following a loss, while the Warriors are 6-0. As Zach Lowe of ESPN (Insider link) observes, the aggregate score of the Finals is 422-421 in favor of Golden State, and the two teams have made an identical number of three-pointers (64).

Oddsmakers like Bovada.lv and BetOnline.ag currently have the Warriors listed as slight favorites, but that’s mostly due to their home court advantage — the Dubs will host Game 5 at the Chase Center on Monday and would do the same in a potential Game 7 on Sunday.

As Lowe writes, given how tight the series has been so far, it’ll likely come down to “execution, toughness, poise, and a little luck.” Robert Williams‘ health will be an X-factor, as his knee continues to be a nagging issue. The Warriors’ ability to find second and third scorers to complement Stephen Curry will also be crucial. Through four games, Curry has 137 points and Klay Thompson – Golden State’s next-best scorer – has 69, Lowe notes.

Several more subplots will play a part in determining this year’s champion. As solid as Jayson Tatum has been in the series, he doesn’t have a signature performance yet, having shot just 34.1% from the field through four games. Does he have a huge game in him? How much can the Warriors expect from Draymond Green, who has been stout defensively but has done next to nothing on offense (4.3 PPG on 23.1% shooting)? Can the Celtics’ role players continue to knock down open catch-and-shoot threes? Will Boston need to adjust its pick-and-roll defense on Curry?

Lowe believes the Celtics are the “better, deeper team on paper,” but the Warriors have home court advantage and have had the best player in the series.

When we polled our readers prior to the start of the series, over 61% of respondents predicted a Warriors victory. If you voted for Golden State in that poll, are you still confident in your pick, or are you now leaning toward the Celtics? If you voted for Boston before the series, are you changing your pick now or sticking with it?

Ahead of Monday’s Game 5, vote in our latest poll below, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

June 13th, 2022 at 7:42am CST by Luke Adams

After posting the NBA’s best record (52-20) in 2020/21, the Jazz entered the ’21/22 season with championship aspirations and came out of the gate strong, winning 28 of their first 38 games.

In the second half of the season, however, injuries, inconsistently, and a frequently recurring inability to hold fourth-quarter leads plagued the Jazz, who went just 21-23 after their impressive start and failed to hit their stride in the postseason, falling in six games to Dallas in the first round.

It was a familiar script for Utah. The team has finished at least 14 games above .500 for six consecutive seasons but never won more than a single playoff series in any one of those years. The latest postseason exit will lead to more scrutiny than ever for the Jazz’s core, particularly since longtime head coach Quin Snyder stepped down from his role several weeks after the season ended, citing a desire to move on.

While the Jazz may be focused on their head coaching search for the time being, it’s safe to assume they’re also thinking long and hard about the extent to which the roster needs to be overhauled. It will be fascinating to see just how aggressive CEO Danny Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik decide to be this offseason.

The Jazz’s Offseason Plan:

Dating back at least to the time they both contracted COVID-19 in March 2020, there have been reports of tension between Jazz All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Although Mitchell and Gobert have repeatedly insisted publicly that there are no issues beyond occasional moments of ordinary on-court frustration, those whispers have persisted, leading to speculation that Utah will eventually break up the star duo.

Multiple reports so far this offseason have suggested the Jazz are shutting down inquiries on Mitchell, but appear more open to the idea of moving Gobert. If that’s true, it makes some sense. As terrific a rim protector as Gobert is – and he’s currently the NBA’s best – his impact on offense is limited and his game-changing defensive ability can be negated to some extent when Utah faces a five-out look.

The Jazz can live with those limitations, but doing so would be easier if Gobert wasn’t set to earn nearly $170MM over the next four years. The club would likely prefer to build a more flexible defense made up of several versatile, switchable players. Having a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate at the rim to back up those players would be ideal, but Gobert’s massive contract complicates the front office’s ability to acquire them — using him as a trade chip may be the best solution to diversify the roster.

Finding a suitable trade for Gobert won’t be easy. Other teams will be wary of his outsized cap hit and the things he can’t do on the court, so it may not be realistic for the Jazz to expect a massive return, especially since they’ll want players who can make an immediate impact, rather than prospects and draft picks. Teams with interest in trading for Gobert won’t be looking to give up multiple impact two-way players for him.

As they consider potential deals this offseason, the Jazz’s front office will likely have the Raptors on speed dial. Toronto has a hole at center and has several talented two-way wings and forwards on its roster, including Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. — the Raptors won’t necessarily be willing to discuss all of those players (Barnes, certainly, isn’t going anywhere), but their abundance of starting-caliber forwards makes them an intriguing potential trade partner from Utah’s perspective.

Chicago has also been cited as a possible suitor for Gobert, but any deal between the Jazz and Bulls may hinge on how the two teams view former No. 4 overall pick Patrick Williams. The Bulls would have to be more willing to give him up than they were at the 2022 trade deadline, and the Jazz would have to like him enough to make him the centerpiece of a package for Gobert. I’m skeptical of the latter in particular.

The Jazz aren’t lacking in alternative trade candidates if they don’t find a Gobert deal they like. Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale, and Rudy Gay, among others, should all be available if the price is right.

Still, Utah will have to keep its expectations in check for what those veterans could realistically return — they’re solid rotation players and their contracts are reasonable enough, but they’re not major trade assets. None of them is going to be bring back two or three above-average rotation players like Gobert theoretically could. Any deals involving guys from this group would be more about swapping one veteran for another, creating a different look to the roster.

Of course, no Jazz player would warrant a more significant haul on the trade market than Mitchell, but it appears the organization won’t consider going down that path unless the former Louisville star says he wants out. There has been no indication that will happen this summer.

The Jazz’s ability to sweeten trade offers with draft picks will be limited. They have no selections in this year’s draft and have also traded away their 2024 first-rounder (top-10 protected). They could still trade up to two future first-rounders between 2026-29 as long as that ’24 pick doesn’t fall within its protected range for multiple years, but not every team will be swayed by draft assets so far down the road.

While most of Utah’s rotation players are under contract for 2022/23, some minimum-salary contributors will be free agents, including Hassan Whiteside, Danuel House, and Eric Paschall. If the Jazz can get them back at the minimum or something very close to it, it would make sense to do so, but the team already projects to be in the tax and will be reluctant to invest more heavily than that in players who are essentially eighth or ninth men. If Whiteside, House, or Paschall get offered substantial raises elsewhere, Utah will likely replace them with minimum-salary free agents.

Finally, it’s worth mentioning that the ongoing head coaching search represents one of the Jazz’s most important decisions of the offseason. Snyder was among the NBA’s longest-tenured coaches and was respected by his players. With the franchise at a crossroads, finding a Snyder replacement who is capable of coming in and demanding respect while creating stability would go a long way toward making sure the team doesn’t have to fully tear down its roster and start over within the next few years.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker (rookie scale)
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (veteran)
  • Jordan Clarkson (veteran)
  • Juan Hernangomez (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With over $148MM in guaranteed money committed to 10 players, the Jazz are on track to go well beyond the projected luxury tax line of $149MM. It’s possible they could avoid becoming a taxpayer if they make a cost-cutting trade or two, but there’s no realistic scenario in which they open up cap room. For now, we’re counting on them being limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 2
  • Trade exception: $9,774,884
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $799,106
  • Trade exception: $567,564

Footnotes

  1. Hernangomez’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. This is a projected value. The Jazz could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

June 10th, 2022 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 trade deadline acquisition of Nikola Vucevic didn’t have an immediate impact on the Bulls‘ on-court results, and there were some raised eyebrows when the deal ultimately cost the team the No. 8 overall pick that became Franz Wagner. But that trade was just the first in a series of moves the front office had up its sleeve to turn the team back into a contender.

After completing sign-and-trade deals for DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball and adding Alex Caruso in free agency last offseason, the Bulls came storming out of the gate and held a top-two spot in the Eastern Conference for most of the first half of the season.

Chicago was still the East’s top seed as late as February 25, but injuries ultimately caught up to the team. Caruso and Ball only played 41 and 35 games, respectively, while starting power forward Patrick Williams missed most of the season while recovering from wrist surgery and Zach LaVine was hampered for much of the year by a nagging knee issue.

The Bulls eventually slipped to sixth in the East and were quickly dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks. Now, the front office will have to determine how much of the team’s disappointing finish can be attributed to the injury bug and how much the roster still needs to be upgraded to make the club a legitimate championship contender.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

While knee soreness slowed down LaVine in the second half of the season, he’s coming off an extremely impressive two-year stretch in which he earned back-to-back All-Star nods while averaging 25.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.7 APG on .491/.404/.851 shooting. Now, the 27-year-old’s free agency looms large over Chicago’s summer.

LaVine isn’t a great defender, and he recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so there’s plenty of reason to be wary about giving him a maximum-salary contract that could be worth up to $212MM over five years. LaVine’s camp may have a sense that putting that offer on the table isn’t a no-brainer for the Bulls, which is why we’ve been hearing whispers in recent weeks about the possibility LaVine could end up elsewhere.

Ultimately though, I’d be shocked if the Bulls and LaVine part ways. It won’t be easy to get a significant return for him in a sign-and-trade deal, and letting him walk wouldn’t necessary open up any great alternatives for the team.

A $42MM+ annual investment in LaVine certainly seems high, but if the knee is back to 100% by the fall (which is expected), he should have several prime years left, and the NBA’s salary cap will only continue to rise, making his salary more manageable. It probably makes sense for the front office to simply bite the bullet on a max offer, rather than trying to nickel-and-dime LaVine in negotiations and running the risk of upsetting him.

Besides LaVine, the Bulls’ free agents include Derrick Jones, Troy Brown, and Tristan Thompson. None of those players lit the world on fire in 2021/22, so Chicago shouldn’t necessarily feel compelled to re-sign any of them. But if they all walk, the team will have to find a way to bring in at least one solid rotation piece on the wing, as well as a backup center.

Decision day on Coby White‘s future is also inching ever closer for the Bulls, who will have the option of offering the former lottery pick a rookie scale extension this offseason.

Ball’s recovery from surgery on his left knee will factor into what the team does with White — if Chicago can count on having a healthy Ball going forward, then the team should have more than enough backcourt depth to get by, with Caruso and breakout rookie Ayo Dosunmu also in the mix. In an ideal world, the Bulls would be able to use White in a deal that nets them another reliable wing or center. But if Ball continues to experience setbacks, White may end up being an important insurance policy.

Vucevic and Williams are offseason wild cards for the Bulls. Vucevic is entering the final year of his contract and probably isn’t the player the club wants protecting the rim on defense for the next few years, but finding a clear upgrade won’t be easy.

For instance, while Chicago has been linked to three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Jazz would likely demand at least a package of Vucevic, Williams, and draft picks — even then, I’m not sure how eager Utah would be to make a deal. After refusing to include Williams in an in-season offer for Jerami Grant, would the Bulls be more willing to part with him this summer? Or will the team remain steadfastly against selling low on a player who has such a tantalizing two-way ceiling?

It’ll also be interesting to see how prepared Bulls ownership is to pay the luxury tax. If we assume LaVine is back on a max deal, Tony Bradley picks up his player option, and Chicago keeps its first-round pick, team salary would be at about $139.8MM for eight players. With a projected tax line of $149MM, the Bulls would have the flexibility to use the full mid-level exception ($10.35MM) and stay well below the hard cap (likely around $155-156MM).

Any number of minor or major moves could affect those projected figures, but if that scenario plays out, I suspect ownership may prefer to use just a portion of the MLE, staying out of tax territory for the time being. If that’s the case, it would eliminate a few potential free agent targets in the $8-10MM range.

After selecting Dosunmu 38th overall a year ago, the Bulls own the No. 18 pick in this year’s draft and figure to once again seek out a player capable of stepping into the rotation as a rookie. Tari Eason and E.J. Liddell are among the players who have multiple years of college basketball experience, could be available at No. 18, and are capable of helping shore up Chicago’s frontcourt defense.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,148,680)
  • Total: $3,148,680

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
  • Coby White (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As outlined above, the Bulls would be well above the cap and approaching the tax line if they re-sign LaVine to a maximum-salary contract. They’d be able to use their full mid-level exception in that scenario, but not without sneaking into tax territory (unless they shed a little salary elsewhere).

If the Bulls don’t retain LaVine or any other free agents, they could potentially open up nearly $18MM in cap room, but that’s an unlikely scenario — if LaVine walks, the team would probably try to get something back in a sign-and-trade, eating up any available cap space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 2
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000

Footnotes

  1. The cap hold for Mokoka remain on the Bulls’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  2. This is a projected value. If the Bulls approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

June 8th, 2022 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning their first title in franchise history three years ago, the Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green in 2019, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in 2020, and Kyle Lowry in 2021. Somehow though, with the exception of an unusual 2020/21 season spent in Tampa, more than 1,000 miles from their home city, the Raptors just keep on winning, defying expectations in ’21/22 by becoming a top-five seed in the East.

The rapid emergence of eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes (Toronto’s reward for that dismal ’20/21 season spent in Florida) played a large part in the Raps’ resurgence this past year. The front office was questioned for selecting Barnes at No. 4 in last year’s draft over Jalen Suggs, who was widely considered one of the top four players in the class. But Barnes’ first-year performance as a two-way weapon vindicated the controversial decision made by president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster.

The remaining holdovers from the 2019 title team – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Chris Boucher – played significant roles in Toronto’s success too. VanVleet made an All-Star team, Siakam earned an All-NBA spot, and Anunoby established a new career high with 17.4 points per game.

The Raptors had a hard time slowing down Joel Embiid and the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and ultimately fell in six games. But given that Toronto was only viewed as a borderline play-in team entering training camp, the year qualified as a major success even without a playoff series win.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

With VanVleet, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and emerging big man Precious Achiuwa all under contract for next season, it’s possible the Raptors won’t make any major changes to their roster. It seems safe to assume that a number of those players – particularly Anunoby, Barnes, and Achiuwa – have yet to reach their ceilings, so Toronto can bet on internal improvement and continue assessing the long-term fit of its core.

Of course, the fact that all those players are on reasonable contracts would make any of them valuable trade chips. And it’s possible the Raptors would have interest in moving one of their three starting forwards to acquire an impact center, though I think that possibility has perhaps been overstated.

Toronto had success in 2021/22 with a versatile group of rangy defenders who showed the ability to switch onto almost any offensive player and hold their own. Adding a more traditional center – such as Rudy Gobert – to that mix would change the way the Raptors play defense and negate one of the team’s strengths — and it would come at a significant trade cost.

The Raptors will also have to be wary of bringing in a center who doesn’t have the ability to stretch the floor. Siakam and Barnes will launch at least a couple three-pointers per game to keep defenses honest, but they’re hardly elite outside shooters. Using Anunoby – whose name has popped up in trade rumors – as the centerpiece of a trade for a non-shooting center would create some serious spacing issues.

Ujiri has shown in the past that he’s not hesitant to pull the trigger on the right trade opportunity, having completed major deals for players like Gasol, Ibaka, and – of course – Leonard. But the Raptors are ahead of schedule in their retooling process and won’t feel any desperation to shake up this roster for the sake of it. If they make a significant trade, it’ll be because it’s too good to pass up.

If the Raptors keep their core intact, the team’s offseason decisions will revolve around free agent signings and possible contract extensions.

Two members of the Raptors’ playoff rotation – Boucher and Thaddeus Young – will be unrestricted free agents this summer, and I’d expect the club to have interest in re-signing both players, assuming the price is right. Team salary isn’t yet approaching luxury tax territory, so as long as Boucher and Young aren’t getting offers that exceed the full mid-level exception (about $10MM), Toronto could comfortably retain both.

The question will be how many years the Raptors are willing to offer, since the roster could get more expensive in the near future when guys like VanVleet and Trent, among others, are up for new deals. I wouldn’t expect Toronto to offer more than two guaranteed years to Boucher, Young, or any outside free agent targets.

The Raptors will be under more pressure to use their full mid-level exception if they only re-sign one of Boucher and Young, but they should have the flexibility to use it even if both players return. It will be interesting to see which direction the team goes with that MLE.

Last year, most of it went to a center (Khem Birch), who had an up-and-down, injury-plagued 2021/22 season — would the Raptors attempt to address that position again with a mid-level free agent, or do they expect more from Birch going forward? Would they instead pursue a shooter, or a backup point guard?

Sharpshooter Malik Monk would be a fascinating target, though it’s unclear whether he could meet the sky-high expectations Nick Nurse has for his players on the defensive end. Veterans like Kyle Anderson and Delon Wright can handle the ball and would be nice fits defensively — they’ve also improved their three-point numbers in recent years. Toronto should have some options.

It’s worth noting that while the Raptors don’t have their first-round pick this year, they did acquire Detroit’s second-rounder, at No. 33 overall. High second-round picks often get three- or four-year commitments, so Toronto could use a small portion of its mid-level exception to sign that player.

VanVleet and Siakam are both eligible for extensions this offseason, and I’d expect the Raptors to prioritize VanVleet, who only has one guaranteed year left on his current deal before facing a player option decision in 2023.

While VanVleet’s struggles to make an impact in the first round of the playoffs against Philadelphia were a little concerning, he was battling multiple injuries and has proved his postseason bona fides in past series. Toronto should feel fine about offering him a deal that gives him at least a modest raise on his current $21MM-per-year rate. Siakam still has two guaranteed seasons left, so there’s no rush to lock him up quite yet.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Armoni Brooks ($1,702,638) 2
  • Dalano Banton ($1,413,518) 1
  • Total: $3,116,156

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Pascal Siakam (veteran)
  • Fred VanVleet (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Raptors retain Banton, they’d have about $112.5MM in guaranteed money committed to nine players. That puts them in position to operate over the projected cap ($122MM), especially if they intend to bring back at least one of Boucher or Young. And unless one of those players is a lot more expensive than we expect, Toronto should also have plenty of breathing room below the projected $149MM tax line, opening the door to use some or all of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $5,250,000
  • Trade exception: $3,070,052

Footnotes

  1. Banton’s partial guarantee will increase to $300K after July 4 and his full salary will become guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  2. Brooks’ partial guarantee will increase to $250K after August 1 and his full salary will become guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. The cap holds for De Colo, Nogueira, Lin, Meeks, and Thompson remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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