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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

June 10th, 2022 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 trade deadline acquisition of Nikola Vucevic didn’t have an immediate impact on the Bulls‘ on-court results, and there were some raised eyebrows when the deal ultimately cost the team the No. 8 overall pick that became Franz Wagner. But that trade was just the first in a series of moves the front office had up its sleeve to turn the team back into a contender.

After completing sign-and-trade deals for DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball and adding Alex Caruso in free agency last offseason, the Bulls came storming out of the gate and held a top-two spot in the Eastern Conference for most of the first half of the season.

Chicago was still the East’s top seed as late as February 25, but injuries ultimately caught up to the team. Caruso and Ball only played 41 and 35 games, respectively, while starting power forward Patrick Williams missed most of the season while recovering from wrist surgery and Zach LaVine was hampered for much of the year by a nagging knee issue.

The Bulls eventually slipped to sixth in the East and were quickly dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks. Now, the front office will have to determine how much of the team’s disappointing finish can be attributed to the injury bug and how much the roster still needs to be upgraded to make the club a legitimate championship contender.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

While knee soreness slowed down LaVine in the second half of the season, he’s coming off an extremely impressive two-year stretch in which he earned back-to-back All-Star nods while averaging 25.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.7 APG on .491/.404/.851 shooting. Now, the 27-year-old’s free agency looms large over Chicago’s summer.

LaVine isn’t a great defender, and he recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so there’s plenty of reason to be wary about giving him a maximum-salary contract that could be worth up to $212MM over five years. LaVine’s camp may have a sense that putting that offer on the table isn’t a no-brainer for the Bulls, which is why we’ve been hearing whispers in recent weeks about the possibility LaVine could end up elsewhere.

Ultimately though, I’d be shocked if the Bulls and LaVine part ways. It won’t be easy to get a significant return for him in a sign-and-trade deal, and letting him walk wouldn’t necessary open up any great alternatives for the team.

A $42MM+ annual investment in LaVine certainly seems high, but if the knee is back to 100% by the fall (which is expected), he should have several prime years left, and the NBA’s salary cap will only continue to rise, making his salary more manageable. It probably makes sense for the front office to simply bite the bullet on a max offer, rather than trying to nickel-and-dime LaVine in negotiations and running the risk of upsetting him.

Besides LaVine, the Bulls’ free agents include Derrick Jones, Troy Brown, and Tristan Thompson. None of those players lit the world on fire in 2021/22, so Chicago shouldn’t necessarily feel compelled to re-sign any of them. But if they all walk, the team will have to find a way to bring in at least one solid rotation piece on the wing, as well as a backup center.

Decision day on Coby White‘s future is also inching ever closer for the Bulls, who will have the option of offering the former lottery pick a rookie scale extension this offseason.

Ball’s recovery from surgery on his left knee will factor into what the team does with White — if Chicago can count on having a healthy Ball going forward, then the team should have more than enough backcourt depth to get by, with Caruso and breakout rookie Ayo Dosunmu also in the mix. In an ideal world, the Bulls would be able to use White in a deal that nets them another reliable wing or center. But if Ball continues to experience setbacks, White may end up being an important insurance policy.

Vucevic and Williams are offseason wild cards for the Bulls. Vucevic is entering the final year of his contract and probably isn’t the player the club wants protecting the rim on defense for the next few years, but finding a clear upgrade won’t be easy.

For instance, while Chicago has been linked to three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Jazz would likely demand at least a package of Vucevic, Williams, and draft picks — even then, I’m not sure how eager Utah would be to make a deal. After refusing to include Williams in an in-season offer for Jerami Grant, would the Bulls be more willing to part with him this summer? Or will the team remain steadfastly against selling low on a player who has such a tantalizing two-way ceiling?

It’ll also be interesting to see how prepared Bulls ownership is to pay the luxury tax. If we assume LaVine is back on a max deal, Tony Bradley picks up his player option, and Chicago keeps its first-round pick, team salary would be at about $139.8MM for eight players. With a projected tax line of $149MM, the Bulls would have the flexibility to use the full mid-level exception ($10.35MM) and stay well below the hard cap (likely around $155-156MM).

Any number of minor or major moves could affect those projected figures, but if that scenario plays out, I suspect ownership may prefer to use just a portion of the MLE, staying out of tax territory for the time being. If that’s the case, it would eliminate a few potential free agent targets in the $8-10MM range.

After selecting Dosunmu 38th overall a year ago, the Bulls own the No. 18 pick in this year’s draft and figure to once again seek out a player capable of stepping into the rotation as a rookie. Tari Eason and E.J. Liddell are among the players who have multiple years of college basketball experience, could be available at No. 18, and are capable of helping shore up Chicago’s frontcourt defense.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,148,680)
  • Total: $3,148,680

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
  • Coby White (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As outlined above, the Bulls would be well above the cap and approaching the tax line if they re-sign LaVine to a maximum-salary contract. They’d be able to use their full mid-level exception in that scenario, but not without sneaking into tax territory (unless they shed a little salary elsewhere).

If the Bulls don’t retain LaVine or any other free agents, they could potentially open up nearly $18MM in cap room, but that’s an unlikely scenario — if LaVine walks, the team would probably try to get something back in a sign-and-trade, eating up any available cap space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 2
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000

Footnotes

  1. The cap hold for Mokoka remain on the Bulls’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  2. This is a projected value. If the Bulls approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

June 8th, 2022 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning their first title in franchise history three years ago, the Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green in 2019, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in 2020, and Kyle Lowry in 2021. Somehow though, with the exception of an unusual 2020/21 season spent in Tampa, more than 1,000 miles from their home city, the Raptors just keep on winning, defying expectations in ’21/22 by becoming a top-five seed in the East.

The rapid emergence of eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes (Toronto’s reward for that dismal ’20/21 season spent in Florida) played a large part in the Raps’ resurgence this past year. The front office was questioned for selecting Barnes at No. 4 in last year’s draft over Jalen Suggs, who was widely considered one of the top four players in the class. But Barnes’ first-year performance as a two-way weapon vindicated the controversial decision made by president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster.

The remaining holdovers from the 2019 title team – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Chris Boucher – played significant roles in Toronto’s success too. VanVleet made an All-Star team, Siakam earned an All-NBA spot, and Anunoby established a new career high with 17.4 points per game.

The Raptors had a hard time slowing down Joel Embiid and the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and ultimately fell in six games. But given that Toronto was only viewed as a borderline play-in team entering training camp, the year qualified as a major success even without a playoff series win.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

With VanVleet, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and emerging big man Precious Achiuwa all under contract for next season, it’s possible the Raptors won’t make any major changes to their roster. It seems safe to assume that a number of those players – particularly Anunoby, Barnes, and Achiuwa – have yet to reach their ceilings, so Toronto can bet on internal improvement and continue assessing the long-term fit of its core.

Of course, the fact that all those players are on reasonable contracts would make any of them valuable trade chips. And it’s possible the Raptors would have interest in moving one of their three starting forwards to acquire an impact center, though I think that possibility has perhaps been overstated.

Toronto had success in 2021/22 with a versatile group of rangy defenders who showed the ability to switch onto almost any offensive player and hold their own. Adding a more traditional center – such as Rudy Gobert – to that mix would change the way the Raptors play defense and negate one of the team’s strengths — and it would come at a significant trade cost.

The Raptors will also have to be wary of bringing in a center who doesn’t have the ability to stretch the floor. Siakam and Barnes will launch at least a couple three-pointers per game to keep defenses honest, but they’re hardly elite outside shooters. Using Anunoby – whose name has popped up in trade rumors – as the centerpiece of a trade for a non-shooting center would create some serious spacing issues.

Ujiri has shown in the past that he’s not hesitant to pull the trigger on the right trade opportunity, having completed major deals for players like Gasol, Ibaka, and – of course – Leonard. But the Raptors are ahead of schedule in their retooling process and won’t feel any desperation to shake up this roster for the sake of it. If they make a significant trade, it’ll be because it’s too good to pass up.

If the Raptors keep their core intact, the team’s offseason decisions will revolve around free agent signings and possible contract extensions.

Two members of the Raptors’ playoff rotation – Boucher and Thaddeus Young – will be unrestricted free agents this summer, and I’d expect the club to have interest in re-signing both players, assuming the price is right. Team salary isn’t yet approaching luxury tax territory, so as long as Boucher and Young aren’t getting offers that exceed the full mid-level exception (about $10MM), Toronto could comfortably retain both.

The question will be how many years the Raptors are willing to offer, since the roster could get more expensive in the near future when guys like VanVleet and Trent, among others, are up for new deals. I wouldn’t expect Toronto to offer more than two guaranteed years to Boucher, Young, or any outside free agent targets.

The Raptors will be under more pressure to use their full mid-level exception if they only re-sign one of Boucher and Young, but they should have the flexibility to use it even if both players return. It will be interesting to see which direction the team goes with that MLE.

Last year, most of it went to a center (Khem Birch), who had an up-and-down, injury-plagued 2021/22 season — would the Raptors attempt to address that position again with a mid-level free agent, or do they expect more from Birch going forward? Would they instead pursue a shooter, or a backup point guard?

Sharpshooter Malik Monk would be a fascinating target, though it’s unclear whether he could meet the sky-high expectations Nick Nurse has for his players on the defensive end. Veterans like Kyle Anderson and Delon Wright can handle the ball and would be nice fits defensively — they’ve also improved their three-point numbers in recent years. Toronto should have some options.

It’s worth noting that while the Raptors don’t have their first-round pick this year, they did acquire Detroit’s second-rounder, at No. 33 overall. High second-round picks often get three- or four-year commitments, so Toronto could use a small portion of its mid-level exception to sign that player.

VanVleet and Siakam are both eligible for extensions this offseason, and I’d expect the Raptors to prioritize VanVleet, who only has one guaranteed year left on his current deal before facing a player option decision in 2023.

While VanVleet’s struggles to make an impact in the first round of the playoffs against Philadelphia were a little concerning, he was battling multiple injuries and has proved his postseason bona fides in past series. Toronto should feel fine about offering him a deal that gives him at least a modest raise on his current $21MM-per-year rate. Siakam still has two guaranteed seasons left, so there’s no rush to lock him up quite yet.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Armoni Brooks ($1,702,638) 2
  • Dalano Banton ($1,413,518) 1
  • Total: $3,116,156

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Pascal Siakam (veteran)
  • Fred VanVleet (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Raptors retain Banton, they’d have about $112.5MM in guaranteed money committed to nine players. That puts them in position to operate over the projected cap ($122MM), especially if they intend to bring back at least one of Boucher or Young. And unless one of those players is a lot more expensive than we expect, Toronto should also have plenty of breathing room below the projected $149MM tax line, opening the door to use some or all of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $5,250,000
  • Trade exception: $3,070,052

Footnotes

  1. Banton’s partial guarantee will increase to $300K after July 4 and his full salary will become guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  2. Brooks’ partial guarantee will increase to $250K after August 1 and his full salary will become guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. The cap holds for De Colo, Nogueira, Lin, Meeks, and Thompson remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Base Year Compensation

June 8th, 2022 at 10:51am CST by Luke Adams

As Larry Coon explains in his invaluable CBA FAQ, the term “base year compensation” technically no longer shows up in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, and hasn’t since 2011. A relic of past agreements, the base year compensation rule was intended to prevent teams from signing free agents to new contracts that were specifically intended to facilitate salary-matching in trades.

While the base year compensation rules have mostly been adjusted and/or removed from the CBA in recent years, there’s still one situation where they apply. Teams have to take them into account when completing sign-and-trade deals.

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets all of the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

  • He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
  • His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
  • He receives a raise greater than 20%.
  • His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is his full new salary.

Here are a couple specific examples to help make things a little clearer:

Let’s say the Suns want to sign-and-trade Deandre Ayton this offseason. He’s a Bird free agent, his new salary will be well above the minimum, and the Suns project to be an over-the-cap team. Having made $12,632,950 in 2018/19, Ayton figures to receive a raise significantly higher than 20% — if he signs a maximum salary contract, it’s projected to start at $30,500,000. So he meets the BYC criteria.

In a scenario where he signs a max deal as part of a sign-and-trade, Ayton’s salary for matching purposes from the Suns’ perspective would be $15,250,000, which is 50% of his new salary (that amount is greater than his previous salary). From his new team’s perspective, Ayton’s incoming figure would be his actual salary, $30,500,000.

Zach LaVine is another top free agent who would meet the BYC criteria if he’s signed-and-traded by the Bulls this offseason. If he gets a maximum salary contract – projected to be worth $36,600,000 for a player with his NBA experience – his outgoing salary for matching purposes would be $19,500,000, the amount he made in 2021/22 — that figure would be a little higher than 50% of his new salary ($18,300,000).

Often, a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade doesn’t have the cap room to sign the player outright, or else there would be little need to negotiate a sign-and-trade. That means salary-matching is required, and is complicated by base year compensation rules.

In these examples, the Suns wouldn’t be able to take back more than $20,250,000 in salary in exchange for Ayton due to the league’s matching rules, while the Bulls wouldn’t be able to take back more than $24,500,000 for LaVine.

However, in order to take on $30,500,000 in incoming salary, Phoenix’s hypothetical trade partner would have to send out at least $24,320,000 in order to account for those salary-matching rules themselves. An over-the-cap team acquiring LaVine would have to send out at least $29,200,000 in order to match his incoming $36,600,000 salary.

The gap between the salary-matching figures from the two teams’ perspectives complicates sign-and-trade talks, requiring both clubs to include additional pieces to make the deal work. A third team could even be necessary to make the numbers line up.

The base year compensation concept doesn’t surface all that often, due to the specific criteria that must be met. However, it looms large over many sign-and-trade attempts, reducing the likelihood of teams finding a deal that can be legally completed. And it could affect a number of potential sign-and-trade candidates during the 2022 offseason.

Rival teams hoping to land players like Ayton, LaVine, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Miles Bridges, or Collin Sexton via sign-and-trade this summer would almost certainly have to navigate base year compensation complications to make it happen.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

A previous version of this post was published in 2019.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

June 7th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning his first Most Valuable Player award in 2020/21, Nuggets star Nikola Jokic was even better in ’21/22. And he had to be — with guard Jamal Murray sidelined while recovering from an ACL tear and forward Michael Porter Jr. on the shelf due to back surgery, Denver was missing two of its top three scorers for nearly the entire season.

Given the absences of those two key players, it should have been a lost season for the Nuggets, but Jokic was so good that you got the sense the team still had a chance to make some noise in the playoffs if Murray and Porter could make it back.

Unfortunately, time eventually ran out on the Nuggets’ season before Murray and Porter were ready to return, and despite Jokic’s heroics – and his second consecutive MVP trophy – the club just didn’t have the pieces to keep up with the eventual Western-champion Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan:

Having a healthy Murray and Porter back in their lineup will go a long way toward turning the Nuggets back into a legitimate contender. But that doesn’t mean the team should be content to sit back and view those returning stars as its offseason “additions.”

Murray and Porter will make the Nuggets’ offense more dangerous, but neither player is an above-average defender, so Denver is in need of one or two more wings who can defend (and ideally who can shoot too).

Newly-promoted head of basketball operations Calvin Booth will be tasked with finding those players, though he’ll have limited resources to do so on the trade market. The Nuggets have given up two future first-round picks and four second-rounders without acquiring any extra picks of their own, reducing the team’s ability to sweeten its offers with draft assets.

That means the Nuggets may have to dangle players like Will Barton, Monte Morris, and possibly Zeke Nnaji as they pursue defensive upgrades. All three are solid contributors on reasonable contracts, but Bones Hyland‘s emergence and Murray’s return should help make at least one of Barton or Morris more expendable.

The Nuggets technically also have the ability to trade the No. 21 overall pick, though they’d have to wait until after the draft to officially move it, due to the rule preventing teams from leaving themselves without a first-rounder in two consecutive future drafts.

It won’t bring back an impact player on its own, but attaching the No. 21 selection to some combination of Barton, Morris, and/or Nnaji would be enough to open up some intriguing possibilities for Denver. On the other hand, the Nuggets’ roster is getting expensive and adding a low-cost rookie could help keep their tax bill in check, so perhaps they’ll hang onto this year’s first-rounder or attempt to move back into the second round rather than trading out of the draft entirely.

Booth and his basketball operations team will have several decisions to make on free agents, including DeMarcus Cousins, Austin Rivers, and Davon Reed. Cousins played well as a backup center behind Jokic and helped bring some toughness to the second unit — I’d expect Denver to try to re-sign him, as long as no other clubs offer him a sizeable raise. The Nuggets only have his Non-Bird rights.

Rivers’ and Reed’s futures could be tied to the Nuggets’ other roster moves. They’ve shown they’re capable of playing rotation minutes, but they’ll be pretty low on the depth chart if Murray, Hyland, Morris, and Barton are all still in the mix and may seek other opportunities in that scenario.

The Greens – JaMychal Green and Jeff Green – could both reach free agency if they turn down their respective player options. I’d consider Jeff far more likely to test the market than JaMychal, given that JaMychal’s option ($8.2MM) is the more expensive of the two and he’s coming off a down year.

Assuming JaMychal opts in, the Nuggets could use his expiring contract to help salary-match in a trade, potentially opening up a larger role for Nnaji. Jeff’s ability to knock down jump shots and guard multiple positions on defense makes him a valuable depth piece, but he’s entering his age-36 season, so the team won’t want to pay him too much more than his option amount ($4.5MM).

Jokic, Murray, and Morris are extension-eligible this offseason, but only Jokic is a sure thing to get a new deal — he and the team are expected to finalize a five-year, super-max agreement that will lock him up through the 2027/28 season. The timing probably isn’t right for an extension for Murray, who hasn’t played in over a year, or Morris, who would be ineligible to be traded for six months if he signs for more money or more years than extend-and-trade rules allow.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 21 overall pick ($2,770,920)
  • Total: $2,770,920

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Nikola Jokic (veteran)
  • Monte Morris (veteran)
  • Jamal Murray (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $143MM+ in guaranteed money committed to just eight players, the Nuggets are on track to go well beyond the projected luxury tax line of $149MM, so they’ll be limited to the $6.4MM taxpayer mid-level exception unless they shed a contract or two.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Porter’s salary will be worth 25% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
  2. The cap holds for Daniels and Jefferson remain on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. The Nuggets could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Deandre Ayton’s Future

June 6th, 2022 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Suns center Deandre Ayton was one of the only notable members of the 2018 draft class who didn’t receive a rookie scale extension last offseason, but the two sides’ inability to reach a compromise was widely viewed as more of a minor inconvenience than a harbinger of trouble.

The expectation was that if Ayton showed in 2021/22 that he was worthy of a maximum-salary investment, Phoenix would either negotiate a new deal with him as a restricted free agent or match a rival team’s offer sheet.

However, ever since the 64-wins Suns were unexpectedly dispatched by Dallas in the second round of this year’s playoffs, speculation about the possibility of Ayton’s departure has begun to heat up.

Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report wrote last month of skepticism around the league that Phoenix will be eager to match a maximum-salary offer for the former No. 1 overall pick. Fischer suggested the Suns may be reluctant to pay any center $30MM+ per year and reported that head coach Monty Williams has “griped about Ayton’s waning focus.

James L. Edwards III and John Hollinger of The Athletic are the latest to suggest a change of scenery is a viable possibility for Ayton. The two Athletic reporters said in a story today that they’ve heard Ayton is “more likely than not” to leave the Suns this summer.

With that in mind, we want to get your thoughts on Ayton’s situation, starting with whether or not he has earned a maximum-salary investment. Centers aren’t as valuable in the modern game as they used to be, but Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid just finished first and second in MVP voting for a second straight year, and Ayton is a 23-year-old who can score (17.2 PPG), rebound (10.2 RPG), and play solid defense, even if he’s not an elite rim protector or outside shooter.

The Suns would be able to offer Ayton up to a projected $176.9MM over five years, while a rival suitor would be able to put a four-year, $131.2MM offer on the table. If Phoenix isn’t willing to give Ayton that five-year max deal, should another team be comfortable offering the four-year max?

While Hollinger expects the Suns to pursue a sign-and-trade deal if they let Ayton go, there are a small handful of teams that could realistically create the cap room necessary to offer him a $30MM+ starting salary without requiring a sign-and-trade and would be intriguing fits for the young center. The Spurs are one. The Pistons could potentially get there too.

If one of those teams pursues Ayton, should they be willing to bet on the Suns not matching an aggressive offer sheet, or should they negotiate a sign-and-trade to ensure they get their man?

In his story with Edwards, Hollinger suggests Detroit could structure a deal around Jerami Grant, while San Antonio could put together a package that includes Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson. I’m skeptical the Spurs would be eager about giving up that much value to sign Ayton to a maximum-salary contract unless they’re virtually certain the Suns would match it.

Are there other teams you think would aggressively pursue Ayton in sign-and-trade scenarios? Perhaps the Hornets, who have long been searching for a solution in the middle? The Hawks and Trail Blazers were other possible suitors mentioned in Fischer’s recent report.

Head to the comment section below to let us know how you think Ayton’s free agency will play out. Will he be back in Phoenix next season? If not, will the Suns get something back for him?

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 6th, 2022 at 2:42pm CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves envisioned themselves as a solid playoff contender entering the 2021/22 season, but national expectations were modest — oddsmakers gave the team an over/under of 34.5 wins, and our readers voted they’d fall short of that mark.

It turned out the Wolves were right to be bullish about their outlook. Following a 24-25 start, Minnesota was one of the NBA’s best teams down the stretch, finishing the year on a 22-11 run for an overall record of 46-36. The club then won its first play-in contest to lock up the No. 7 seed and put a scare into the No. 2 Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, pushing the series to six hard-fought games.

A 46-win season and a first-round playoff exit would be a disappointment for some franchises, but it represented a major step forward in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves haven’t won a postseason series since 2004 and had finished below .500 in 15 of 16 seasons prior to 2021/22.

The last time the Wolves won as many as 46 games and made the playoffs, in 2018, the team came apart shortly thereafter, trading away star wing Jimmy Butler and firing head coach Tom Thibodeau partway through the following season. This time around, the Wolves are set up better for lasting success, with 2020’s first overall pick Anthony Edwards still on the ascent, a solid leadership group in place, and none of the team’s core players looking for a way out of Minnesota.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan:

The Timberwolves’ offseason got off to an eventful start when they poached veteran basketball operations executive Tim Connelly from the division-rival Nuggets, hiring him to a five-year, $40MM contract to run their front office.

The addition of Connelly was a reflection of how far the franchise had come since the dismissal of Gersson Rosas, which occurred just ahead of the 2021/22 season amid rumors that Rosas had engaged in an inappropriate workplace relationship. At that time, the Timberwolves were the butt of the usual jokes, particularly due to the timing of the move, which occurred just before training camp got underway.

Eight months later, the Wolves were no longer a punchline, having put together an impressive coalition of front office talent that also includes executive VP of basketball operations Sachin Gupta – who took over from Rosas on an interim basis until Connelly’s arrival – and newly-hired senior VP of basketball operations Matt Lloyd, one of the league’s top scouting experts.

Incoming owners Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore have spoken repeatedly about wanting to make the Wolves a top-flight organization, and their willingness to pay big money for an experienced, highly regarded executive like Connelly showed it wasn’t all talk.

One of Connelly’s first orders of business in Minnesota will be determining what to do with D’Angelo Russell, who is entering the final year of his maximum-salary contract. Russell has been up and down since arriving in Minnesota, displaying the offensive arsenal that made him an All-Star during his last season in Brooklyn, but also no-showing in big games – he scored more than 12 points just once in this year’s six playoff contests – and often exhibiting little resistance on defense.

Russell will earn $31.4MM in 2022/23, but he probably isn’t worth investing in at that price – or higher – going forward. On the other hand, he likely wouldn’t bring back a significant return on the trade market, and his close friendship with star center Karl-Anthony Towns shouldn’t be overlooked.

Unless the Wolves get unexpectedly impressed by a trade offer for Russell, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they try to negotiate an extension with him at a slightly lesser rate. Something in the neighborhood of the deals signed last summer by Mike Conley with Utah (three years, $68MM) or Lonzo Ball with Chicago (four years, $80MM) might make some sense for both sides.

Towns is also extension-eligible, having qualified for a super-max when he made the All-NBA Third Team this year — it seems likely the Wolves will put that offer on the table for him. It would be a four-year contract that begins in 2024/25 and would be worth 35% of that season’s cap, meaning it could well be worth in excess of $50MM per year.

That may seem like an exorbitant amount to pay a player who probably doesn’t rank among the NBA’s top 10 stars and may never break into that group, but the league’s salary cap continues to rise, and Minnesota isn’t exactly a premier free agent destination. If an All-NBA caliber player is willing to stick with the team long-term, the Wolves need to do what they can to make it happen.

If the Wolves retain Russell, Malik Beasley and his pseudo-expiring $15.6MM contract (he has a $16.5MM team option for 2023/24) might be their most logical salary-matching piece in any major trade. If the right two-way threat is available on the trade market, Beasley and the No. 19 pick would be a good starting point for an outgoing package.

But the Wolves won’t be looking to give Beasley away. He has been one of their top three-point threats since arriving in Minnesota (.389 3PT%) and can hold his own on defense. It’s also worth noting that Connelly was part of the Nuggets front office that drafted Beasley in the first round of 2016, so the new president of basketball operations will likely feel some form of attachment to the 25-year-old.

While their roster will get more expensive in future seasons, the Wolves still have the flexibility to re-sign Taurean Prince, a useful contributor at forward, and pursue another rotation player using their mid-level exception. I’d expect any new contracts Minnesota completes with role players this summer to span no more than one or two seasons, allowing the team to maintain some flexibility for 2024, when pricey new deals for Towns and Edwards would go into effect.

If the Wolves hang onto the No. 19 pick, they should feel encouraged by Connelly’s track record of finding diamonds in the rough later on in the draft. He can’t realistically be expected to top his selection of Nikola Jokic (No. 41 overall in 2014), but Beasley, Monte Morris, Zeke Nnaji, and Bones Hyland are among the players Connelly’s Nuggets have drafted at No. 19 or later since 2016.

Minnesota also has three second-round picks between Nos. 40 and 50, at least a couple of which could traded for other assets, since the club doesn’t have four roster spots to hand to rookies.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • Josh Okogie ($5,857,966 qualifying offer / $12,263,712 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $12,263,712

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($3,006,840)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 48 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 50 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,006,840

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Malik Beasley (veteran)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran) 3
  • Naz Reid (veteran) 3
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Wolves bring back their nine players on guaranteed contracts, plus Nowell, Reid, and their first-round pick, they’d be just over the projected cap at $122.5MM for 12 players. That would give them plenty of room below the projected tax line ($149MM) to re-sign Prince and use their full mid-level exception — and possibly even their bi-annual exception, depending on Prince’s price tag.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $4,750,000

Footnotes

  1. Nowell’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Reid’s salary will remain non-guaranteed until July 20 even if his option is exercised.
  3. Nowell and Reid would only be eligible if their options are exercised.
  4. The cap holds for Turner and Brooks remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

June 6th, 2022 at 9:29am CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
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  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

June 5th, 2022 at 8:19pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nets entered training camp last fall as the title favorites, with their Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving all healthy and ready to play their first full season together. However, it didn’t take long for Brooklyn’s season to begin to come off the rails.

Irving’s refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19 led to him appearing in just 29 of 82 regular season games due to New York City’s local vaccine mandate and the Nets’ initial unwillingness to only play him on the road. Durant put up MVP-type numbers in the first half to help compensate for Irving’s absence, but he went down with a knee injury in January that cost him nearly two months.

Harden dealt with conditioning and hamstring issues, and reportedly became frustrated by Irving’s inconsistent availability and the Nets’ struggles in Durant’s absence, ultimately requesting a trade prior to February’s deadline. Health problems also impacted Joe Harris, who was limited to just 14 appearances due to a troublesome ankle injury, and Ben Simmons, who was acquired as the centerpiece in the Harden trade but never suited up for Brooklyn because of a back injury.

The Nets still went 44-38 and won their first and only play-in game, but they never really looked like they were firing all cylinders, and their playoff run was short-lived — they lost four straight games to the eventual Eastern champions (the Celtics) in the first round.

With Irving on track for potential free agency and Simmons recovering from a procedure on his back, Brooklyn will have to determine this offseason whether the current core is still championship-caliber, assuming everyone is available next season.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan:

Irving holds a $36.9MM player option for the 2022/23 season, but is considered likely to turn it down and seek a new contract, which would lead to some fascinating negotiations between him and the Nets.

Brooklyn can’t really afford to let Irving walk, since his exit wouldn’t open up any cap room for a replacement. That should create some leverage for Kyrie. On the other hand, Irving is on the wrong side of 30 and has a reputation as a mercurial star. And the teams with the most projected cap room – such as the Magic, Pistons, Spurs, and Pacers – aren’t likely to seriously pursue him.

If the right sign-and-trade opportunity arises, perhaps Irving and the Nets would be open to pursuing it, but Kyrie – who specifically chose Brooklyn in free agency in 2019 – has given no indication he wants to leave, and it’s unlikely that any player available in a sign-and-trade deal would possess Irving’s upside or his ability to make an immediate impact for a win-now team. The Nets and Kyrie may take some time to reach sort of compromise – a five-year, maximum-salary contract seems like a long shot – but I’d still expect them to eventually come to an agreement.

A new deal for Irving is likely to push the Nets into tax territory on its own, but the team still has several other players’ free agencies to resolve. Patty Mills (player option), Nic Claxton (RFA), and Bruce Brown (UFA) all played important roles on the 2021/22 roster and if they’re not re-signed, Brooklyn will have to seek out adequate replacements.

Of the three, Claxton is perhaps most likely to be back, since the Nets can match any offer sheet he receives. But if there’s a team particularly high on Claxton that decides to force Brooklyn’s hand with an aggressive offer, perhaps Sean Marks and his team would prefer to go bargain shopping at center and use the Claxton money to address other roster spots.

Mills shouldn’t be in line for a significant raise, so his free agency will likely come down to where he wants to play. If he turns down his $6.2MM player option, there will be no shortage of teams interested in signing him as a backup point guard — if he decides another team gives him a better shot to win a title, he could depart.

Brown is another player who figures to draw interest from a handful of playoff teams, given his versatility and defensive tenacity. The Nets were able to retain him last year at a bargain rate because he was a restricted free agent, but this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a salary closer to the full mid-level exception. It’s unclear if Brooklyn is prepared to go that high.

If the Nets lose a couple of those guys, their best path to acquiring replacements may be on the trade market, since they don’t control any 2022 draft picks and will only be able to offer the taxpayer mid-level exception or minimum salaries to outside free agents.

Harris’ stock will be down following a lost season, but if his medicals look good, the Nets could potentially dangle his contract (two years and $38.5MM) and the Sixers’ 2023 first-round pick in an effort to get a couple useful rotation players. With sharpshooter Seth Curry under contract for less than half the price, Harris has become more of a luxury than a necessity.

Of course, Simmons – who has three years left on his maximum-salary contract – could be a trade chip, but his value will be even lower now than it was when the Sixers spent months trying to move him. Brooklyn is probably better off hanging onto the 25-year-old and hoping he can regain his All-Star form in a new environment. In theory, his defensive prowess and ability to run the floor should make him a nice fit alongside Durant and Irving.

As the Nets explore the trade market, it’s worth noting that they have several trade exceptions available, including one worth $11.3MM. That should give them a little additional flexibility as they weigh their options.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Seth Curry (veteran)
  • Joe Harris (veteran)
  • Kyrie Irving (veteran) 1
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Even if Irving walks and the Nets get nothing back in return, they’ll be operating as an over-the-cap team — opening up cap room would require jettisoning Irving and shedding more salary beyond that, which probably isn’t happening.

The most likely scenario is that Irving re-signs on a maximum-salary deal or something close to it and Brooklyn is once again a taxpayer in 2022/23.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 4
  • Trade exception: $11,306,904
  • Trade exception: $6,267,918
  • Trade exception: $3,246,530
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178
  • Trade exception: $1,293,680
  • Trade exception: $118,342

Footnotes

  1. Irving would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  2. Milutinov was the No. 26 overall pick in 2015, but has yet to sign a rookie contract. The Nets hold his NBA rights.
  3. The cap holds for Chandler and James remain on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value. The Nets could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

June 3rd, 2022 at 4:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Following a head coaching change and a second half surge in 2020/21, the Hawks made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, increasing expectations for the 2021/22 season.

The team struggled to meet those expectations early in the year and ended up nearly replicating the pattern of their previous season. In ’20/21, Atlanta followed up a 14-20 start with a 27-11 finish. In ’21/22, a 17-25 start preceded a 26-14 finish.

Unfortunately for the Hawks, the Eastern Conference was far more competitive in 2022 than it was a year earlier, and even after winning a pair of play-in games, they ran into a less favorable first-round playoff matchup this time around. The Heat’s defense forced Trae Young into perhaps the worst offensive stretch of his NBA career, and Atlanta didn’t have enough other weapons to make it a competitive series, falling in five games.

Now, the front office will have to figure out way to upgrade the capped-out roster and raise the Hawks’ ceiling going forward.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan:

Many NBA owners and executives will only speak in platitudes when discussing potential offseason moves, talking about wanting to re-sign their own free agents and build continuity. Hawks owner Tony Ressler and president of basketball operations Travis Schlenk have taken an entirely different approach so far this spring, telling reporters and radio hosts that changes are coming to this roster and not everyone will be back.

While that doesn’t mean the Hawks won’t try to re-sign any of their free agents, it seems like a safe bet that the agents for Delon Wright, Lou Williams, Gorgui Dieng, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and Kevin Knox are prepared to seek out new homes for their clients.

Beyond that, even several players who are under contract for next season shouldn’t feel too comfortable that they’ll be back in Atlanta. Young is believed to be the only Hawk who is truly untouchable in trade discussions, though the team presumably won’t be eager to move players like John Collins, Onyeka Okongwu, or De’Andre Hunter.

Still, that leaves a handful of intriguing trade candidates who could be on the table if the Hawks look to make a play for a star or simply want to make personnel changes. Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Kevin Huerter are all under contract for multiple seasons and are earning between $14-19MM — none are great bargains, but they’re far from albatrosses.

The appeal of Danilo Gallinari‘s $5MM partial guarantee is negated by the fact that the Hawks would almost certainly have to increase it to make him a useful trade chip, but even if his $21.45MM salary is fully guaranteed, his expiring contract makes him a logical salary-matching piece in a number of hypothetical trades.

So what will the Hawks be looking for in trades? Rather than addressing a specific position, improving the team’s defense figures to be the number one priority. That could mean pursuing a rim-protecting center like Rudy Gobert, who would be an upgrade over Capela. It could mean going after a two-way wing like Jerami Grant, who could help slow down the Kevin Durants and Jimmy Butlers of the Eastern Conference. Or it could mean seeking out a guard like Malcolm Brogdon, who can play off the ball and help shield Young from the most challenging defensive assignments.

Even though the Hawks project to be well over the cap, free agency also shouldn’t be ruled out as a potential path for a significant upgrade. Atlanta has enough flexibility below the luxury tax line and enough expendable contracts to realistically be a player for top sign-and-trade candidates.

However, some of the most noteworthy free agents who have been linked to Atlanta, including Zach LaVine, wouldn’t help much on the defensive end, and many – like LaVine and Deandre Ayton – would come with base year compensation complications due to their modest 2021/22 salaries.

The mid-level exception will be a more realistic tool for the Hawks to land a rotation player on the free agent market. Versatile defenders like Gary Payton II, Bruce Brown, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Anderson, P.J. Tucker, and Nicolas Batum would be realistic targets using the MLE.

Finally, the No. 16 pick in this month’s draft would be another asset for the Hawks to use on the trade market if they’re not in love with the idea of bringing in a rookie who may not be ready to play rotation minutes right away. If they do keep the pick, they could again prioritize defensive versatility and take a long look at players like Jeremy Sochan and/or Tari Eason, assuming they’re still on the board.

Atlanta’s best candidate for an offseason extension is Hunter, who has battled injuries in his first three NBA seasons and didn’t take a real step forward in 2021/22, but has flashed intriguing upside on both ends of the court when healthy — he put up 35 points and 11 rebounds in Game 5 vs. the Heat. If the Hawks can get him locked in at a team-friendly rate (perhaps a deal similar to Huerter’s), they should jump at the opportunity, but otherwise it may be prudent to see what he does in year four and wait for restricted free agency.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Danilo Gallinari ($16,450,000) 2
  • Total: $16,450,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 16 overall pick ($3,488,760)
  • No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,488,760

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (veteran)
  • Danilo Gallinari (veteran)
  • De’Andre Hunter (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Hawks will be well over the cap and are approaching luxury tax territory, even if they part ways with Gallinari. If we assume Atlanta waives Gallinari and stretches his partial guarantee across three years, keeps its first-round pick, and lets all its free agents go, the team would be on the hook for about $135.5MM for nine players.

The luxury tax line projects to be at $149MM, so the Hawks could fill out their roster and remain below the tax. But they wouldn’t be able to make full use of the mid-level exception without becoming a taxpayer, unless they shed some salary elsewhere.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $1,782,621
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Young’s salary will be worth 30% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
  2. Gallinari’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
  3. These are projected values. If the Hawks approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

June 2nd, 2022 at 8:50am CST by Luke Adams

The Pelicans‘ 2021/22 season began on a sour note, as the team revealed at the start of training camp that Zion Williamson was recovering from offseason foot surgery, then proceeded to get off to a 1-12 start in the regular season.

Williamson experienced multiple setbacks in his rehab process and ultimately sat out the entire season, but the Pelicans turned their year around without him. Steady production from vets like Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, along with impressive contributions from rookies Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, helped New Orleans climb back into play-in contention by the trade deadline, at which point the club took a big swing and acquired CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. from Portland.

Nance spent most of the rest of the season recovering from knee surgery, but McCollum thrived in New Orleans, emerging as the team’s leading scorer in the second half and helping to lead the Pelicans to the play-in tournament, where they won a pair of do-or-die contests and earned the No. 8 seed. They even gave the 64-win Suns a scare in the first round, pushing the series to six games.

Given how well they played even without the former No. 1 overall pick available, the Pelicans have reason to be bullish about their future. With Williamson on track to return next season and an excess of valuable future draft assets – including this year’s No. 8 overall pick – still available, New Orleans appears to be on the rise.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

Few teams have as little work to do on their 2022/23 roster as the Pelicans. Of the 15 players who finished the season on standard deals with New Orleans, 14 are under contract for next season. The only free agent, Tony Snell, probably isn’t part of the team’s plans going forward.

That doesn’t mean the front office can just sit back and enjoy a lengthy summer vacation, of course. The Pelicans still have a handful of big decisions to make, starting with how aggressively to pursue an offseason extension for Williamson.

No player has ever turned down a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension, and Zion probably won’t become the first. But the Pelicans likely won’t feel comfortable putting that offer on the table, even if Williamson’s on-court performance warrants it. He has simply missed too much time due to injuries in his first three seasons for the team to be confident that he’ll be healthy going forward. So it’s no surprise that team ownership is reportedly reluctant to offer a fully guaranteed max deal.

The most obvious – and most frequent – comparison for Williamson is Joel Embiid, who signed a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension with Philadelphia after appearing in just 31 games across his first three NBA seasons. That contract included injury protection language, giving the Sixers an exit ramp to waive Embiid and save nearly half his full guarantee if he continued to battle the types of injuries that sidelined him in his first three years.

On the surface, a similar arrangement makes sense for Williamson and the Pelicans. As long as Zion doesn’t continue to suffer major injuries, there’s no reason New Orleans would want to cut him, so he’d have a good chance to earn his full guarantee and max out his earnings. In the worst-case scenario, if his career is derailed by injuries, he could still potentially secure upwards of $80-100MM if the Pelicans are willing to guarantee half the contract.

As logical as that compromise may be, it’s a fine line to walk for the Pelicans, who have heard whispers ever since drafting Williamson in 2019 that he might not want to remain in New Orleans long-term. While Zion himself has never suggested he wants to be anywhere else, the franchise won’t want to risk alienating him by low-balling him in terms of guaranteed money.

There’s no doubt that trade speculation will begin to heat up if the Pelicans and Williamson can’t work out an agreement this summer, but the team should be prepared to exercise patience. Zion is under contract for next season and would be a restricted free agent in 2023, so New Orleans still controls this process. Unless Williamson makes a nuclear, Ben Simmons-esque trade demand, there will be plenty of time beyond this offseason for the two sides to find a resolution — and plenty of time for Zion to get back on the court and boost his trade value, if he eventually decides he wants out.

Outside of Williamson, three other Pelicans are eligible for extensions this offseason: McCollum, Nance, and Jaxson Hayes.

McCollum is under contract for two more seasons, so I wouldn’t expect the club to approach those negotiations with tremendous urgency. I’d also be a little surprised to see Hayes get a new deal — he did well as a power forward alongside Valanciunas this season, but the team will still want to see how he fits in once Williamson is back, and his legal issues complicate matters. Nance could actually be the best candidate of the three for an extension, given his track record, his versatility, and his reasonable price point.

The Pelicans also figure to explore the trade market in search of an upgrade on the wing or in the backcourt. Devonte’ Graham received a four-year commitment from New Orleans just last summer, but had an up-and-down season and saw his role change following the acquisition of McCollum and emergence of Alvarado. He’ll likely be expendable in the right deal.

Of course, the No. 8 overall pick, which the Pelicans acquired from the Lakers, will be a fascinating asset to monitor. New Orleans should be able to secure a pretty talented prospect at that spot in the lottery if the team hangs onto the pick, but it would also be a valuable trade chip to attach to Graham and/or other veterans on the trade market.

My best guess for now is that the Pelicans would rather hang onto that pick and add one more promising youngster to their core while dipping into their stash of future first-rounders for any win-now trades. But if the right player is attainable on the trade market, the front office should be willing to let the No. 8 selection go.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jose Alvarado ($463,518)
  • Total: $463,518

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 8 overall pick ($5,434,920)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,434,920

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Jaxson Hayes (rookie scale)
  • CJ McCollum (veteran)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
  • Zion Williamson (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With about $141MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season (assuming Alvarado returns, which is a lock), the Pelicans will be far beyond the projected $122MM cap and are starting to approach the $149MM luxury tax line.

They’ll have to keep that tax cutoff in mind when they consider possible trades and weigh how to fill their final roster spot. Simply bringing back their 14 players currently under contract and using the No. 8 pick on a 15th man would leave them with $2MM+ in breathing room below the tax line.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 2
  • Trade exception: $6,382,262
  • Trade exception: $1,786,878

Footnotes

  1. The cap hold for Nunnally remain on the Pelicans’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  2. This is a projected value. The Pelicans could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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