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Community Shootaround: Best Open Coaching Job

May 2nd, 2022 at 2:54pm CST by Luke Adams

So far, the 2022 offseason hasn’t been an especially busy one on the head coaching carousel. In some years, upwards of one-quarter or one-third of the NBA’s teams make coaching changes once the season ends, but just three clubs are currently searching for someone to fill that job: the Lakers, Kings, and Hornets.

There’s still plenty of time for that to change. Perhaps Quin Snyder will decide to leave the Jazz or longtime Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will opt to retire. It’s also possible a playoff team that falls short of its expectations will make a change. For now though, there’s just those three openings.

The three teams seeking a new head coach have one thing in common: They all expected to make the playoffs in 2021/22 and fell short.

No team missed out on the postseason in more dramatic fashion than the Lakers, who were among the NBA’s title favorites entering training camp. The team was never able to properly acclimate Russell Westbrook to his new team, didn’t get enough production from several veteran reserves, and was hurt by injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers are one of basketball’s marquee franchises and any team with LeBron and AD on the roster is capable of contending, but some candidates may be wary of pursuing the job. The front office, which has been rumored to meddle, has sky-high expectations for the team but lacks the trade assets and cap flexibility to significantly upgrade a roster that finished out of the top 10 in the West. Some veteran coaches might also be turned off by the way the team handled the ouster of Frank Vogel, who won a title for L.A. less than two years ago.

If the Lakers are one of the NBA’s marquee franchises, the Kings are…somewhere on the other end of the spectrum. In 2022, Sacramento set a new league record for futility by missing out on the playoffs for a 16th consecutive season and traded away one of its best recent draftees, second-year guard Tyrese Haliburton, at the trade deadline.

Still, the duo of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis represents a good start, especially on offense. If the team can surround Fox and Sabonis with players who can shoot and defend, there’s some intriguing potential on this roster. Adding those kinds of players is easier said than done, but rookie guard Davion Mitchell has big-time defensive upside and Harrison Barnes is a solid three-and-D wing.

The Hornets, meanwhile, have made the play-in tournament twice in a row, but were blown out and eliminated in their first play-in game both last year and this year. Charlotte looks like a team on the rise, with LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and P.J. Washington still getting better. But Gordon Hayward‘s health problems and a lack of a strong presence at center have limited the team’s ceiling since Ball and Hayward arrived in 2020.

We want to know what you think. Which of these head coaching openings looks most appealing to you? Which do you expect to attract the strongest group of candidates? Which is the least appealing?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Cap Holds

May 2nd, 2022 at 1:53pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls have approximately $98MM in guaranteed money committed to player salaries for 2022/23. However, even though next season’s salary cap is expected to come in at $122MM, Chicago won’t begin the 2022 offseason with tens of millions in cap room to spend.

In fact, the Bulls technically won’t open the new league year with any cap space at all. Each of Chicago’s own free agents will be assigned a free agent amount – or “cap hold” – until the player signs a new contract or the Bulls renounce his rights.

The general purpose of a cap hold is to prevent teams from using room under the cap to sign free agents before using Bird rights to re-sign their own free agents. If a team wants to take advantage of its cap space, it can renounce the rights to its own free agents, eliminating those cap holds. However, doing so means the team will no longer hold any form of Bird rights for those players — if the team wants to re-sign those free agents, it would have to use its cap room or another kind of cap exception.

The following criteria are used for determining the amount of a free agent’s cap hold:

  • First-round pick coming off rookie contract: 300% of the player’s previous salary if prior salary was below league average; 250% of previous salary if prior salary was above league average.
  • Bird player: 190% of previous salary (if below league average) or 150% (if above average).
  • Early Bird player: 130% of previous salary.
  • Non-Bird player: 120% of previous salary.
  • Minimum-salary player: Two-year veteran’s minimum salary, unless the free agent only has one year of experience, in which case it’s the one-year veteran’s minimum.
  • Two-way player: One-year veteran’s minimum salary.

A cap hold for a restricted free agent can vary based on his contract status. A restricted free agent’s cap hold is either his free agent amount as determined by the criteria mentioned above or the amount of his qualifying offer, whichever is greater.

No cap hold can exceed the maximum salary for which a player can sign. For instance, the cap hold for a Bird player with a salary above the league average is generally 150% of his previous salary, as noted above. But for someone like Wizards star Bradley Beal, who earned $33,724,200 this season, 150% of his previous salary would be north of $50MM, well beyond the projected maximum salary threshold.

Beal’s cap hold – assuming he turns down his 2022/23 player option – will be equivalent to the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA experience. If we assume a cap of $122MM, that figure works out to $42.7MM.

One unusual case involves players on rookie contracts whose third- or fourth-year options are declined. The amount of their declined option becomes their cap hold, and if the player’s team wants to re-sign him, his starting salary can’t exceed that amount.

For instance, the Suns declined Jalen Smith‘s 2022/23 fourth-year option last fall before trading him to the Pacers during the season. As a result, the Pacers won’t be able to offer Smith a starting salary this offseason worth more than $4,670,160, the amount of that option. That figure will also be his cap hold.

That rule is in place so a team can’t circumvent the rookie scale and decline its option in an effort to give the player a higher salary. It applies even if the player is traded, as in the case of Smith, but only to the team the player is part of at season’s end. So, theoretically, the Suns could now offer Smith a starting salary greater than $4,670,160 this offseason despite being the team that initially turned down his option.

If a team holds the rights to fewer than 12 players, cap holds worth the rookie minimum salary are assigned to fill out the roster. So, even if a front office chooses to renounce its rights to all of its free agents and doesn’t have any players under contract, the team wouldn’t be able to fully clear its cap. An incomplete roster charge in 2022/23 projects to be worth $1,004,159, meaning a team without any guaranteed salary or any other cap holds would have closer to $110MM in cap room than $122MM.

A player who has been selected in the draft but has not yet officially signed his rookie contract only has a cap hold if he was a first-round selection. A cap hold for a first-round pick is equivalent to 120% of his rookie scale amount, based on his draft position. An unsigned second-round pick doesn’t have a cap hold.

Cap holds aren’t removed from a team’s books until the player signs a new contract or has his rights renounced by the club. For example, the Warriors are still carrying cap holds on their books for retired players David West and Matt Barnes, who never signed new contracts since playing for Golden State.

Keeping those cap holds allows teams some degree of cushion to help them remain above the cap and take advantage of the mid-level exception and trade exceptions, among other advantages afforded capped-out teams. If and when the Warriors want to maximize their cap room, they’ll renounce West and Barnes, but they’ve been over the cap and haven’t required any added flexibility since those players became free agents in 2017.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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Poll: Phoenix Suns Vs. Dallas Mavericks

May 2nd, 2022 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The Suns were the NBA’s most dominant team in 2021/22. Their 64 regular season wins were eight more than any other team compiled, and their +7.5 net rating ranked first in the league.

However, with Devin Booker banged up for part of their first-round series, it took the Suns six games to beat the upstart Pelicans, and they weren’t exactly blowout victories — Phoenix outscored New Orleans by just nine points across those six games.

While the Suns may have looked more susceptible to a playoff upset in the first round than they did for most of the season, one crucial stat carried over to the postseason. After registering a ridiculous +33.4 net rating in “clutch” situations during the regular season, Phoenix improved that number to +35.0 in the first round.

The Suns’ ability to score late in close games has been crucial all year, and could be a difference-maker as they look to make a deep playoff run. Having Booker back in the lineup will provide a huge boost as well. He missed three games with a hamstring strain, but returned to action on Thursday and has had three full days of rest before Game 1 of the team’s second-round series on Monday. Assuming he’s back to something resembling 100%, Phoenix will enter the Western Conference Semifinals at full strength.

The Suns’ second-round opponent will be a Mavericks team that has advanced beyond round one for the first time since Luka Doncic arrived in Dallas in 2018, having defeated the Jazz in round one. Like Booker, Doncic was unavailable due to a leg injury (calf strain) for three games in the first round, but the Mavs didn’t miss a beat without him, as Jalen Brunson took his game to another level by putting up 32.0 PPG and 5.3 APG in Doncic’s absence.

Brunson and Doncic, both healthy and ready to go for round two, will face more resistance against Phoenix than they did against Utah’s subpar perimeter defense. Defensive Player of the Year finalist Mikal Bridges has evolved into one of the league’s top shutdown defenders, and he’s flanked by a number of solid performers on that end, including Chris Paul and Jae Crowder. Doncic and Brunson are still capable of putting up big numbers, but they’ll have to work a lot harder to do so in round two.

Although Dallas finished the season 12 games back of Phoenix in the standings, the current iteration of the team looked as dangerous as anyone during the season’s final two months. From the time newly-acquired guard Spencer Dinwiddie made his Mavs debut on February 15 through the end of the regular season, no NBA team had a better record than Dallas (19-6).

The Mavs won’t enter their series vs. the Suns as favorites, but they’re an extremely dangerous team that should make life very difficult for the reigning Western Conference champs.

What do you think? Will the Suns make it back to the Western Conference Finals this season, or will the Mavericks pull off the upset? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

May 2nd, 2022 at 7:32am CST by Luke Adams

The Pistons‘ rebuild took a major step forward when they lucked into the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft, giving them first dibs in what looked to be an exceptional pool of prospects. Detroit’s choice – Cade Cunningham – didn’t win this season’s Rookie of the Year award, but he led all first-year players in points per game and his strong second half reinforced the Pistons’ belief in his ability to be a franchise centerpiece.

The team’s front office and ownership won’t want to rush the roster-building process, but after winning no more than 23 games in each of the last three seasons, they’ll likely be eager to take the next step forward as soon as possible.

With Cunningham and strong secondary pieces like Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart in place, the Pistons are on the right track, but some more good fortune in the lottery (they have a 52.1% chance of securing a top-four pick) would help further accelerate the team’s climb back to playoff contention.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan:

The Pistons are one of the only NBA teams projected to have cap room available this summer, but to fully take advantage of it, they’ll have to first resolve Marvin Bagley III‘s free agency, since his cap hold ($28MM+) far exceeds his expected salary.

After three-and-a-half relatively underwhelming seasons in Sacramento, Bagley finished the 2021/22 season strong in Detroit, unburdened by the same expectations he faced with the Kings, where he was known as the player the team drafted one spot ahead of Luka Doncic. He averaged 14.6 PPG with a career-best .555 FG% in 18 games as a Piston.

The Pistons, who reportedly liked the athleticism Bagley brought to the frontcourt and want to re-sign him to a multiyear deal, should have a good amount of leverage, given that the former No. 2 overall pick will be a restricted FA and seems unlikely to draw significant interest from many other teams. The three-year deals signed a year ago by big men Khem Birch ($20MM) and Nerlens Noel ($27MM) could be used as points of comparison.

Even after accounting for the cap hold for their lottery pick and a new deal for Bagley, the Pistons are poised to have a good deal of cap space available. The team has been linked to a wide variety of potential free agent targets, ranging from point guards (Jalen Brunson) to wings (Miles Bridges) to centers (Mitchell Robinson), but shouldn’t feel compelled to spend big in free agency — that cap room could just as easily be used to accommodate trades to continue stockpiling draft picks and/or young talent.

Speaking of trades, the Pistons will face a decision this summer on Jerami Grant, who has one season left on the three-year contract he signed in 2020 and will be eligible for an extension of up to four years. Reports at the trade deadline indicated that vice chairman Arn Tellem was more open to the idea of moving Grant than general manager Troy Weaver was, but if Detroit isn’t prepared to extend the veteran forward, perhaps the front office will become more united behind the idea of pursuing a trade this offseason.

A handful of option decisions will impact how the Pistons fill out their bench — Cory Joseph holds a player option and would be a solid backup to Cunningham or a useful trade chip if he opts in. Detroit also has team options on four players: Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson, Carsen Edwards, and Luka Garza.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($7,155,120)
  • No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,155,120

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Jerami Grant (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Let’s assume the Pistons keep all eight players with guaranteed salaries, re-sign Bagley to a deal starting at $7MM, get the No. 3 overall pick, and bring back all five players who have options. In that scenario, the team would still have over $19MM in cap room.

If the Pistons aren’t committed to picking up all their team options, their cap room could increase to $25-30MM. Of course, Joseph’s option decision, Bagley’s free agency, and possible trades are also wild cards that will affect that number. But if Detroit has a move in mind that requires $20MM-ish in cap space, it looks like it won’t be too difficult to carve out that space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $5,329,000 1

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Philadelphia 76ers Vs. Miami Heat

May 1st, 2022 at 7:44pm CST by JD Shaw

The Sixers and Heat will tip off Game 1 of their second-round series on Monday in Miami. Both teams are coming off wins against talented teams, the Raptors and the Hawks, and the clubs will meet in the postseason for the third time in the last 11 years.

Miami finished as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference this season at 53-29. Meanwhile, Philadelphia ranked fourth in the East at 51-31 and went 14-7 in the games James Harden played. Both clubs should be considered legitimate title contenders.

However, both teams are currently dealing with injuries. The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid (mild concussion and orbital fracture), though he could return later in the series. Miami has several players who are listed as questionable for Game 1 (including Jimmy Butler) and won’t have starting point guard Kyle Lowry to open the series due to a hamstring strain.

When examining the rosters, Philadelphia has the edge with its starting lineup at full strength. Tyrese Maxey, Harden, Tobias Harris and Embiid combined to score 84.3 points per game in the team’s first-round series. The next-highest scorer was Danny Green (9.0 points), who started every game. Teams have also struggled to keep Harden and Embiid off the line. They combined to attempt 17 free throws per game in round one.

Miami’s strengths lie in its defense and depth. The team effectively took Trae Young out of its first-round series, forcing Young to average 15.4 points and 6.2 turnovers per game on 32% shooting. The Heat held Atlanta to an average of 97.4 points across five games and took advantage of its elite bench, receiving 23 points from Victor Oladipo to close the series. Oladipo played alongside Tyler Herro, the front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year.

Which team will win the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals? We want to know what you think. Vote in our poll, then head to the comments section and weigh in with your thoughts!

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Poll: Memphis Grizzlies Vs. Golden State Warriors

April 30th, 2022 at 10:46am CST by Dana Gauruder

The Grizzlies, who entered the postseason as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, eliminated the Timberwolves on Friday night in dramatic fashion. They’ll get precious little time before jumping into their conference semifinal matchup with a much more seasoned postseason participant — the third-seeded Warriors. The series begins on Sunday afternoon on Memphis’ home court.

After rolling to 56 victories in the regular season, the young Grizzlies got a jolt to the system during their first-round series. They needed to stage major, and sometimes unlikely, comebacks to take care of the Timberwolves. They rallied from a 26-point deficit in Game 3 and needed a last-second Ja Morant layup to take Game 5. They outscored Minnesota 40-22 in the fourth quarter to win Game 6.

Playing catch-up against the Splash Brothers & Co. isn’t a recipe for success. Golden State holds championship banners from 2015, 2017 and 2018 and its “big three” are playing at a high level once again.

Morant and Desmond Bane will try to prove they can hold their own, or even outplay, the storied duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Bane averaged a team-high 23.5 PPG in the opening round. Morant had ups and downs in the series, averaging a subpar (by his standards) 21.5 PPG and 4.2 turnovers per contest. He’ll need to provide steadier production in the second round.

Dillon Brooks will be a key factor at both ends in a series that will revolve around the teams’ guards and wings. Brandon Clarke played a huge role off the bench against Minnesota but the Grizzlies will need more from Jaren Jackson Jr. (11.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG). The X-factor could be center Steven Adams, who entered the NBA’s health and safety protocols prior to Friday’s win.

Adams started regularly all season, then dropped out of the rotation because he was a bad matchup against the floor-stretching Karl-Anthony Towns. Assuming he exits protocols early in the series, Adams could play a much bigger role against Golden State, which doesn’t have a high-scoring frontcourt piece.

The Warriors come into the series confident and rested after dismissing Denver 4-1 in the opening round. Curry and Thompson combined to average 50.6 PPG in the opening round and vastly improved Jordan Poole (21.6 PPG) continued to add a potent third offensive option.

Draymond Green led the team in assists per game (7.4) against the Nuggets and will remain a heady and all-around defensive force. Gary Payton II could play a major role off the bench as a defender against Memphis’ guards.

So, which of these teams will advance to the 2022 Western Conference Finals? We want to know what you think. Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on Warriors/Grizzlies!

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Poll: Boston Celtics Vs. Milwaukee Bucks

April 29th, 2022 at 9:05am CST by Luke Adams

The first of the NBA’s four second-round matchups to be locked in is also one of the most intriguing. The Celtics, the No. 2 seed in the East, will face the No. 3 Bucks, with the series scheduled to tip off on Sunday night.

The Celtics were comfortably the NBA’s best team during the final two-and-a-half months of the 2021/22 regular season. After putting up a .500 record in their first 50 games, the C’s went 26-6 from January 29 onward — no other NBA team lost fewer than nine games during that stretch.

Boston’s advanced statistics backed up the team’s dominant record. The club led the league in both offensive rating (120.7) and defensive rating (105.9), resulting in an eye-popping 14.8 overall net rating. The next-best teams during that stretch were Memphis at +8.8 and Phoenix at +6.8.

The Celtics have carried that momentum into the postseason. With many experts forecasting the No. 7 Nets to pull off the upset, Boston became the only team to complete a first-round sweep. It was Jayson Tatum – not Kevin Durant – who looked like the best player in the series, averaging 29.5 PPG and 7.3 APG with a .456/.419/.868 shooting line, compared to Durant’s 26.3 PPG and 6.3 APG on .386/.333/.8985 shooting.

Tatum will face another serious challenge in round two, when he and the Celtics go up against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending-champion Bucks. The Bucks lost Khris Middleton to a knee injury in Game 2 of their series vs. Chicago, but somehow looked even better after that, making quick work of Chicago as Antetokounmpo led the way with 28.6 PPG, 13.4 RPG, and 6.2 APG on 56.8% shooting.

Middleton isn’t expected to be back in the second round, which is a tough blow for the Bucks. But this is a deep, dangerous team even without the All-Star forward.

The Bucks have shown they’re capable of winning while shorthanded in the postseason, having gone 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals last year without Antetokounmpo before dominating the Bulls in three games without Middleton this year.

It’s Milwaukee, not Boston, that has posted the best defensive rating (94.4) and net rating (+13.8) of the postseason so far. But the Celtics will have home court advantage in the series, which could be a factor — the teams split their four regular season meetings, with each club winning two games at home.

Which team will advance to the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals? We want to know what you think. Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on Celtics/Bucks!

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

April 28th, 2022 at 9:03am CST by Luke Adams

After blowing up their roster midway through the 2020/21 campaign, the Magic embarked on the first full season of their rebuilding process in 2021/22. The results were about what you’d expect: Orlando won just seven of its first 42 games and finished the year at the very bottom of the Eastern Conference standings with a 22-60 record.

The Magic’s handling of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac, who were both recovering from ACL tears, showed just how patient the franchise is willing to be as it rebuilds its roster from the ground up. Fultz didn’t play until he was about 14 months removed from his injury, while Isaac didn’t suit up at all during the 2021/22 season despite having sustained his injury way back in August of 2020.

With Isaac unavailable all year and Fultz missing for most of the season, the Magic didn’t get a chance to see how a couple of their important young veterans fit alongside their new prospects, but they did give those prospects an opportunity to play big minutes.

While No. 5 overall pick Jalen Suggs had an underwhelming rookie season, second-year guard Cole Anthony took a step forward and rookie forward Franz Wagner established himself as a very promising building block for the future. Orlando will be looking to add another long-term cornerstone with its top-six pick in this year’s draft.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

In his fourth NBA season, Mohamed Bamba finally stayed healthy and enjoyed a mini-breakout, setting new career highs in points (10.6), rebounds (8.1), and blocks (1.7) per game, while shooting 38.1% on three-pointers. The performance suggested that Bamba, who turns 24 next month, is finally on the way to becoming the player the Magic envisioned when they drafted him sixth overall in 2018.

The timing of his emergence complicates matters though. The Magic signed Wendell Carter last year to a four-year, $50MM extension that will go into effect in 2022/23 and were better this season when Carter was on the court without Bamba (-0.9 net rating) than when they played together (-5.5) or when Bamba played without Carter (-14.8).

Will the Magic be willing to invest heavily in a second young center? Will there be enough competition for Bamba on the free agent market that he even requires a significant investment? Answering these questions will help shape the rest of Orlando’s offseason, since the decision on Bamba will impact whether the team operates over the cap or under it.

Of course, the Magic’s luck in the lottery also may have a major impact on the Bamba decision. If the team brings in a prospect such as Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, or Jabari Smith, the frontcourt rotation will start to get crowded, especially with Isaac on the way back.

Several of the Magic’s other key offseason decisions relate to their veteran players. Gary Harris and Robin Lopez played their roles well, but it’s unclear if the club envisions them as part of its plans going forward now that they’re unrestricted free agents. Terrence Ross is under contract for one more season, but he seemingly wants to be traded and Orlando would presumably love to accommodate him. His down year in 2021/22 will make it difficult to get anything of real value for him, however.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall pick ($10,907,160)
  • No. 32 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $10,907,160

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Markelle Fultz (veteran)
  • Terrence Ross (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The cap hold for the Magic’s lottery pick pushes their total guaranteed salary over $92MM. That still leaves nearly $28MM in cap space if the team lets all its free agents walk and renounces its remaining cap holds, but I’m not convinced the Magic badly want to create cap room, since they’re unlikely to be major players in free agency.

I’d expect them instead to try to retain Bamba and perhaps explore a new deal with Harris. The decision to operate over or under the cap could come down to how successful – and how expensive – those efforts are. One thing to keep in mind: if new deals for Bamba and Harris project to leave the Magic with, say, $10-12MM in cap space, it makes more sense for the club to simply stay over the cap and keep its full mid-level exception.

If one of Bamba or Harris doesn’t return or if Orlando sheds some salary, possibly by trading Ross, the path to cap space is more obvious. But for now we’re assuming the Magic will at least begin the offseason as an over-the-cap team.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Vazquez was the Magic’s No. 11 pick in 2005. He never signed a rookie contract and has since retired, but the team has yet to renounce its rights to him.
  2. The cap holds for Afflalo, Speights, and Law remain on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Magic operate as an under-the-cap team, they would renounce these exceptions and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

April 26th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Unlike the 2020/21 version of the Rockets, who began the season hanging onto a disgruntled James Harden and holding out hope for a spot in the playoffs, the ’21/22 squad had no misconceptions about its place in the NBA’s pecking order. The primary focus in Houston this past year wasn’t to make the postseason, but rather to develop the team’s cadre of incoming rookies, including No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green.

Ultimately, the end result in 2021/22 was the same as it was a year earlier — the Rockets won fewer than a quarter of their games and finished with the worst record in the NBA.

But there’s a little more reason for optimism now than there was at this time last year, even if Houston is still probably a year or two away from seriously contending for a playoff berth. Green and big man Alperen Sengun looked like players worth building around long-term, and the club will once again have a top-five pick this June, providing a terrific opportunity to add another cornerstone piece to the roster.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan:

The need for a rebuilding team to trade away its productive veterans is generally overstated. Having a couple reliable veterans on the roster for young players to lean on and learn from can be more valuable to a team than the modest draft assets it could acquire by moving those vets.

With that in mind, I understand the Rockets’ decision to hang onto Eric Gordon and Christian Wood through the 2022 deadline. However, this offseason looks like the right time to seriously consider trading one or both of those players.

Gordon’s 41.2% three-point percentage this season was the second-best mark of his career, and his contract, which only has one more guaranteed year left before it becomes non-guaranteed in 2023/24, is no longer especially onerous. Wood, meanwhile, is entering a contract year and has a manageable $14.3MM cap hit for 2022/23. The Rockets could get positive value for both of them right now, which may not be true later in the season if Gordon’s production dips or either player gets injured.

Of course, the Rockets will once again scour the market in search of a taker for John Wall, who is a lock to pick up his $47.3MM player option, but finding a suitable deal won’t be easy. With no desire to attach draft picks to Wall and little appetite for taking on pricey multiyear veteran contracts, the Rockets probably won’t get an offer that appeals to them.

It’s possible that attaching Wood or Gordon to Wall would create more options for the Rockets, but outside of the Lakers and a small handful of other teams, most clubs don’t have that much expendable salary on their books for matching purposes. Houston may be better off simply pursuing a buyout with Wall, trying to save a few million dollars this season, and clearing his contract from the team’s books entirely when it expires in 2023.

After adding four first-round picks to their roster last year, the Rockets have two more first-rounders this season. They’ll certainly keep their lottery pick, but the No. 17 selection (from Brooklyn) could be a trade chip used to acquire future assets if the team isn’t interested in once again incorporating multiple rookies.

The Rockets will also have to assess which of their extension-eligible young players are worth investing in this offseason. Kevin Porter Jr. is eligible for a rookie scale extension, while Jae’Sean Tate and Kenyon Martin Jr. could both sign veteran extensions.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($8,763,720)
  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,314,160)
  • Total: $12,077,880

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Eric Gordon (veteran)
  • Kenyon Martin Jr. (veteran)
  • Kevin Porter Jr. (rookie scale)
  • Jae’Sean Tate (veteran) 1
  • John Wall (veteran) 1
  • Christian Wood (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Rockets currently only have about $65.6MM in guaranteed money on their books for next season, but that figure is deceiving. Once the options for Wall and Tate and the cap holds for their two first-round picks are accounted for, the Rockets will be over the cap, even if they renounce all of their free agents. Team salary will remain well below the tax line though, so Houston will have the full mid-level exception at its disposal if needed.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $607,730

Footnotes

  1. Tate and Wall would only be eligible if their options are exercised, which is expected.
  2. The cap hold for Frazier remain on the Rockets’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Playoff Check-In

April 26th, 2022 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

It has been 10 days since the NBA’s 2022 playoffs tipped off, and 15 of 16 teams that made the first round are still alive. The one playoff team whose season is over? The Nets, viewed by many fans, league observers, and oddsmakers as the championship favorites coming into the 2021/22 campaign.

While a handful of other clubs are on the verge of elimination, Brooklyn is the only one that was swept out of the playoffs. As a No. 7 seed, the Nets weren’t the title favorites entering the playoffs, but their swift elimination is a reminder that the battle for the 2022 crown remains wide open.

The early results in the Western Conference have provided another reminder of the unpredictable nature of this year’s postseason. The Suns and Grizzlies were the NBA’s two most dominant teams during the regular season, but they now found themselves tied up at 2-2 against a pair of play-in teams, the Pelicans and Timberwolves. Devin Booker is injured for Phoenix and Ja Morant isn’t at 100% for Memphis, but the fact that both clubs are fighting for their playoff lives in the first round is still a surprise.

The Warriors have looked like the best team in the West early in the playoffs, though their Game 4 loss to the Nuggets showed they’re not exactly unbeatable either. The Mavericks, meanwhile, hold a 3-2 lead over the Jazz despite not having All-NBA guard Luka Doncic available until Game 4 — with a healthy Doncic, they look like a threat to make some noise beyond the first round, but they’ll have to get past Utah first.

In the East, the Heat and Bucks briefly looked vulnerable after losing Kyle Lowry and Khris Middleton, respectively, but they’ve since reasserted control over the Hawks and Bulls and hold 3-1 series leads. Miami and Milwaukee remain strong threats to make deep postseason runs, especially if they get their injured stars back sooner rather than later.

The Sixers looked like they were putting all together during the first three games of their series vs. the Raptors, but after two straight losses, they’re no longer even a lock to get out of the first round. Up 3-2, Philadelphia remains a strong favorite to get past Toronto, but Joel Embiid‘s thumb injury is clearing bothering him, and James Harden hasn’t been at his best in the series, averaging 18.4 PPG on 37.3% shooting. If their two superstars aren’t in peak form, the 76ers’ upside is limited.

Unlike the Sixers, the Celtics didn’t take their foot off the gas pedal during their four-game sweep of Brooklyn. Boston looked like the best team in the Eastern Conference in the second half and has carried that success into the playoffs. They’ll have to make sure they don’t get rusty during their current layoff as they prepare for what will likely be a matchup with the defending champs.

Ten days into the postseason, we want to know what you think. Which teams do you expect to meet in the NBA Finals? Have your picks changed at all based on what you’ve seen in the last week-and-a-half? Are there any lower seeds you like as sleepers to make the conference finals, or high seeds you think are in real trouble?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the playoffs!

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