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Why Non-Guaranteed Contracts Aren’t Ideal Trade Chips

June 1st, 2022 at 12:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, a player with a $10MM guaranteed salary and a player with a $10MM non-guaranteed salary were essentially treated the same way in trades for salary-matching purposes. However, that’s no longer the case under the league’s current CBA.

We’ve written about this in the past, but it’s a point worth reiterating with the 2022 offseason around the corner: A player’s outgoing salary for matching purposes is now only equivalent to his salary guarantee. So a player with a $5MM partial guarantee on a $10MM contract counts for $5MM in outgoing salary. A player with a non-guaranteed $10MM contract counts as $0 in outgoing salary.

For the team receiving the player, however, the full cap hit still applies. So even though a player on a $10MM non-guaranteed contract would count as $0 for outgoing purposes, he’d be considered $10MM in incoming salary to the team acquiring him.

Since over-the-cap teams must match salaries in trades within a certain percentage, this rule is worth keeping in mind when considering a handful of possible trade candidates this summer.

For example, the Hawks have Danilo Gallinari under contract for $21.45MM in 2022/23, but only $5MM of that amount is guaranteed. As a result, Atlanta wouldn’t be able to use Gallinari as the primary salary-matching piece in a deal for, say, Jerami Grant and his $20MM+ salary this offseason unless they significantly increased Gallinari’s partial guarantee (to $15MM+).

As it stands, Gallinari’s $5MM partial guarantee would be enough to net the Hawks a player earning up to $8.85MM. However, since Gallinari’s incoming salary to a new team would count as $21.45MM, that team wouldn’t be permitted to trade only an $8.85MM player for Gallinari unless it had the cap room necessary to accommodate the forward’s full $21.45MM cap hit.

For an over-the-cap team, acquiring Gallinari would mean sending at least $16.45MM in outgoing salary, which the Hawks wouldn’t be able to accommodate using only Gallinari’s $5MM partial guarantee.

This rule affecting non-guaranteed contracts applies even if the Hawks were to trade Gallinari before the 2022/23 league year begins on July 1. Once Atlanta’s season ended, Gallinari’s ’22/23 partial guarantee replaced his ’21/22 salary as his new outgoing salary for matching purposes. So the Hawks can’t circumvent the rule by moving Gallinari during or before the draft.

The Hawks are hardly the only team affected by the trade rules for non-guaranteed salaries. Kelly Oubre (Hornets), Mason Plumlee (Hornets), Danny Green (Sixers), Eric Bledsoe (Trail Blazers), Josh Hart (Trail Blazers), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Wizards) are among the players with partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed salaries who won’t be especially useful as trade chips unless their guarantees are increased or they’re sent to teams with the cap room to absorb their full salaries.

The smaller a player’s salary and the smaller the gap between his guarantee and his full cap hit, the easier these rules are to work around.

For instance, Plumlee has a $9.08MM salary for next season, with a $4.26MM partial guarantee. If he were swapped for a player earning $7MM, both teams would meet the salary-matching requirements. It wouldn’t be so easy in a trade involving a player like Bledsoe, since the gap between his partial guarantee ($3.9MM) and his full cap hit ($19.38MM) is so substantial.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

May 31st, 2022 at 11:10pm CST by Luke Adams

When we asked Hoops Rumors readers last fall whether the Cavaliers would win over or under 26.5 games in 2021/22, responses leaned ever so slightly toward the under, and the consensus was that Cleveland was on its way to another lottery finish. So when the Cavs won their 27th game on January 17, their season already had to be considered a major success.

Unfortunately, injuries caught up to Cleveland following a 35-21 start and the team finished just 9-17, falling out of a top-six spot in the East and into play-in territory. The banged-up Cavs then lost a pair of play-in games – one in Brooklyn and one at home vs. Atlanta – and missed out on the opportunity to compete in a postseason series.

It was a disappointing finish to the year, since getting some best-of-seven playoff experience against a team like the Heat or Bucks would have been a huge step for young players like Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. But the organization still had to be thrilled by what it saw from its roster this past year.

After going 60-159 in the three seasons following LeBron James‘ departure, the ’21/22 Cavs finished above .500 (44-38), showing the resilience to fight through a series of injuries to key contributors, including Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio, Mobley, and Allen. And given how young most of Cleveland’s core players still are, there’s no reason to think this group has reached its ceiling.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:

The nine players who logged the most total minutes for the Cavaliers in 2021/22 are all under contract for at least one more season, as is midseason addition Caris LeVert, so the roster shouldn’t undergo any significant changes this summer. However, there are still a handful of important decisions to make.

Determining how to handle Sexton’s restricted free agency will be one of the front office’s top priorities. The former lottery pick emerged as one of the NBA’s most dangerous backcourt scorers from 2019-21, averaging 22.5 PPG on .474/.376/.828 shooting across those two years. But he suffered a torn meniscus just 11 games into his fourth season and wasn’t a factor in the Cavs’ unexpected success.

As good a scorer as Sexton is, his contributions on the other end of the court are limited, and his lost season will likely reduce his leverage in contract negotiations. With so few teams possessing cap room this offseason, the Cavs are in position to play hardball in their discussions with Sexton, especially if none of those cap-room teams have serious interest in him. A deal worth at least $20-25MM annually seemed within reach for the 6’1″ guard a year ago, but now he’d be doing well to get $15-17MM per season.

The presence of LeVert should provide the Cavs with additional leverage in their talks with Sexton. LeVert wasn’t at his best after joining the Cavs, averaging a modest 13.6 PPG in 19 games, but he’s just one year removed from a 20+ PPG season, and his size makes him a more natural fit next to Garland in Cleveland’s backcourt.

LeVert will be extension-eligible this offseason, so the Cavs should be able to get a sense of what sort of deals both he and Sexton are seeking before investing long-term in one or the other — or both.

Like LeVert, Garland and Kevin Love will be eligible for contract extensions this summer. Talks with Garland should be reasonably straightforward, as he has earned a maximum-salary offer following an All-Star campaign. It should just be a matter of whether or not he gets the full five years.

Love is less likely to receive a new deal in the coming months, since his $28.9MM expiring contract could be useful in trade talks during the offseason or at the 2023 deadline. But if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut, Cleveland would likely entertain the idea of an extension for Love, who had a nice bounce-back year in 2021/22 and was the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up.

As a result of missing out on the playoffs, the Cavs retained their first-round pick, which would have gone to Indiana if it had landed outside of the lottery. That No. 14 overall selection probably won’t yield a star, but it’s an intriguing asset as Cleveland looks to add more shooting and defense on the wing.

Ohio State’s Malaki Branham, Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji, Baylor’s Jeremy Sochan, and LSU’s Tari Eason all make sense as potential targets if the Cavs keep the pick. It could also be dangled in trade talks if Cleveland wants to acquire a veteran who is a better bet to contribute immediately.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 14 overall pick ($3,865,920)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,865,920

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Darius Garland (rookie scale)
  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Kevin Love (veteran)
  • Dean Wade (veteran) 2
  • Dylan Windler (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $120MM+ in guaranteed money on their books, plus Wade, Stevens, and a first-round pick to account for, the Cavs will almost certainly be over the projected $122MM cap.

Whether or not they approach the tax line will hinge largely on whether Sexton is back and how big his first-year salary is. Even with a new deal for Sexton on the books, Cleveland shouldn’t be a taxpayer next season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $858,218
  • Trade exception: $300,000

Footnotes

  1. Wade’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Wade would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  3. The cap hold for Dellavedova remain on the Cavaliers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. If the Cavaliers approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Golden State Warriors Vs. Boston Celtics

May 30th, 2022 at 9:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The last two teams standing have plenty of history in the NBA Finals.

The Celtics will be seeking to break their tie with the Lakers for the most NBA championships. They’ve both won it 17 times, though Boston hasn’t captured the Larry O’Brien trophy since 2008 and hasn’t reached the Finals since 2010.

The Warriors will be seeking their fourth title in eight years — they won it in 2015, 2017 and 2018.

Defense has been the calling card of both teams. They finished first and second in the regular season in defensive field goal percentage — Boston held opponents to 43.4% shooting, while Golden State limited opponents to 43.8% shooting. They are second and third in that category in the postseason behind Milwaukee.

Both teams have versatile players who can guard multiple positions. Boston has the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, Golden State has former DPOY Draymond Green.

Offensively, the Celtics rely on their wings while the Warriors lean on their guards. Boston’s Jayson Tatum (27.0 PPG in this postseason) and Jaylen Brown (22.9 PPG) are capable of taking over games at any time. Of course, Golden State has the Splash Brothers. Stephen Curry (25.9 PPG) and Klay Thompson (19.8 PPG) are just as dangerous as ever and they’ve got plenty of support from 22-year-old Jordan Poole (18.4 PPG).

The Smart-Curry matchup could set the tone for the series. Andrew Wiggins will draw either Tatum or Brown.

The Celtics’ frontcourt of veteran Al Horford and Robert Williams, with a big assist from Grant Williams, will go toe-to-toe with Green and one of the postseason’s biggest surprises, Kevon Looney.

With the home court advantage and championship experience, Golden State enters the Finals as the favorite. However, Boston’s defense and dynamic scoring duo can’t be underestimated.

So now it’s your turn to decide how the Finals will play out. Vote in our poll, then head to the comments section below to share your thoughts!

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NCAA’s Withdrawal Deadline Looms For Draft’s Early Entrants

May 30th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

College players who are “testing the draft waters” this spring, having entered the 2022 NBA draft pool while maintaining their NCAA eligibility, will have to make a final decision this week on whether or not to go pro.

The NCAA has set a withdrawal deadline of Wednesday, June 1 at 11:59 pm Eastern time (10 days after the end of the draft combine). A player who still has college eligibility left but who doesn’t pull out of the draft pool by that deadline will forgo his remaining eligibility and won’t be able to return to his school or transfer to a new one for the 2022/23 season.

A total of 247 college players – either underclassmen or seniors who still have an extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19 – initially entered the draft prior to April’s early entry deadline.

In the weeks since then, many have either opted to withdraw after getting feedback on their stock, or have made a final decision to remain in the draft. However, as our early entrant tracker shows, there are still dozens with decisions to make by Wednesday night.

A college player who doesn’t withdraw from the draft by Wednesday’s deadline still technically has another 12 days to do so, since the NBA’s own withdrawal deadline is on Monday, June 13 at 5:00 pm ET, 10 days ahead of the June 23 draft.

However, a college player who pulls out of the draft pool at that point would no longer have his NCAA eligibility, so he’d have to play in a non-NBA league for the 2022/23 season. That’s why the NBA’s withdrawal deadline is often only meaningful for international players, who don’t have to worry about the NCAA’s rules.

NC State’s Terquavion Smith, Duke’s Trevor Keels, Wake Forest’s Jake LaRavia, and Colorado State’s David Roddy are some of the top-50 prospects on ESPN’s big board who have yet to formally confirmed whether they’ll stay in the draft. We’ll be tracking their decisions – and all the rest – ahead of Wednesday’s deadline.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

May 30th, 2022 at 2:46pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets took some real steps forward in 2021/22. After posting a 33-39 record and the NBA’s 23rd-best net rating (-1.9) a year earlier, Charlotte registered a positive net rating and won an additional 10 games, finishing at 43-39.

The end result was the same, however. In both years, the Hornets finished 10th in the Eastern Conference, went on the road for their first play-in game, and lost it in blowout fashion due to a lackluster defensive performance.

Rather than focusing on the positive strides the Hornets made this past season, the team’s front office and ownership group instead focused on the repeated play-in disappointments. As a result, head coach James Borrego was dismissed and roster changes are likely around the corner for a Hornets team looking to play more than just a single postseason game in 2023.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan:

The Hornets are the only NBA team that still has a head coaching vacancy, after the Kings and Lakers filled their respective openings. Hiring a replacement for Borrego will be the first order of business and will be one of the most important decisions of the offseason.

Ideally, Charlotte would want a coach capable of maximizing LaMelo Ball‘s talents, developing prospects like James Bouknight and Kai Jones, solidifying the defense, and turning a lottery team into a legitimate playoff threat. Finding a candidate who checks all those boxes won’t be easy.

Mike D’Antoni‘s name has frequently been linked to the Charlotte job, which makes some sense given his history with point guards, but he’s not exactly known as a defensive mastermind. Darvin Ham was reportedly considered a serious candidate, but he’s off the table now that he has agreed to coach the Lakers. Frank Vogel, Terry Stotts, Kenny Atkinson, David Vanterpool, Charles Lee, and Sean Sweeney are among the others who have reportedly interviewed, but it’s unclear whether any of them have captured the Hornets’ imagination with their vision for the franchise.

Once their head coaching search is complete, the Hornets will shift their focus to addressing a roster that still has a few holes. I’d expect the front office to do all it can to retain restricted free agent Miles Bridges, who was the team’s leading scorer in 2021/22. Charlotte would presumably prefer not to go all the way up to the maximum salary to re-sign Bridges, and it’s possible that won’t be necessary if no other team makes a serious run at him. But the cost to lock him up long-term will almost certainly be $25MM+ per year.

Assuming they secure Bridges, the Hornets will have to determine how best to surround him and rising star Ball going forward. Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Montrezl Harrell, Kelly Oubre, Mason Plumlee, Cody Martin, and Jalen McDaniels filled out the rotation in 2021/22, but there are questions surrounding many of those players.

Hayward has battled injury issues since arriving in Charlotte — will the Hornets be able to use his contract in a trade or will they have to count on him being healthier going forward? Washington is extension-eligible this offseason, but is he a long-term keeper or a potential trade chip in a deal for an impact player?

Will Harrell be re-signed or will he be a roster casualty as the Hornets look to upgrade their center spot? Will Oubre and Plumlee, who both have partial guarantees, be retained on their current deals? What will it cost to re-sign RFA-to-be Martin? And does it make sense to turn down McDaniels’ option and negotiate a new contract with him this summer instead of waiting for him to reach unrestricted free agency in 2023?

While one of Harrell or Plumlee could be back, I’d expect acquiring a starting center to be at or near the top of the Hornets’ offseason to-do list. The team’s poor defensive numbers can be attributed in part to lacking the sort of big man who can protect the rim and control the boards.

Myles Turner has long been on Charlotte’s radar, but may not be on the trade block anymore following the Pacers’ decision to move Domantas Sabonis. If the Hornets want to swing big, Rudy Gobert or Deandre Ayton could be options, either via trade or free agency. If they want to play it a little safer, targeting players like Richaun Holmes or Mitchell Robinson could make more sense.

The Hornets control two first-round picks next month, at No. 13 and No. 15, which should create additional options for them on the trade market. It’s possible Charlotte could simply use both picks, but after not getting much out of last year’s first-rounders, Bouknight and Jones, it seems unlikely that the team would want to bring in more rookies in 2022/23, especially with the pressure to make the playoffs increasing.

If the Hornets can’t make a deal on or before draft night that sends out one of those picks in a deal for veteran talent, don’t be surprised if they trade one of them for a future first-round selection, plus maybe a second-rounder or two. Those picks could subsequently be used as sweeteners in a trade for win-now help during free agency or even at next season’s deadline.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Kelly Oubre ($7,600,000) 1
  • Mason Plumlee ($4,817,917) 2
  • Nick Richards ($1,782,621) 4
  • Total: $14,200,538

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($4,069,080)
  • No. 15 overall pick ($3,672,120)
  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,741,200

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Gordon Hayward (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran) 5
  • Mason Plumlee (veteran)
  • Nick Richards (veteran)
  • P.J. Washington (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Hornets could theoretically open up some cap room, but it would require, at the very least, letting Bridges walk. That seems unlikely.

If we assume Bridges will be back and Charlotte will have to account for some combination of Oubre, Plumlee, McDaniels, Martin, and its first-round picks, it’s more likely that team salary will approach luxury tax territory rather than being below the cap.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 6
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Oubre’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. Plumlee’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 21.
  3. McDaniels’ salary will remain non-guaranteed until August 1 even if his option is exercised.
  4. Richards’ salary will become fully guaranteed after July 7.
  5. McDaniels would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
  6. These are projected values. If the Hornets decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000). If the Hornets approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

May 27th, 2022 at 1:19pm CST by Luke Adams

The Clippers had one of the NBA’s most expensive rosters in 2021/22, but with Kawhi Leonard spending the year recovering from the ACL tear he sustained in last year’s playoffs, the team’s ceiling was never as high as its payroll suggested.

Even with Leonard unavailable and with George limited to 31 games due to injury issues of his own, the Clippers stayed competitive all season. Head coach Tyronn Lue had an impressive year, getting the most out of minimum-salary players such as Terance Mann, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Amir Coffey and veterans like Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, Nicolas Batum, and Luke Kennard.

A record just above .500 (42-40) put the Clippers in the play-in tournament, where they still could have been dangerous if Leonard and George were available. But Kawhi wasn’t yet ready to return from his long rehab process and an ill-timed positive COVID-19 test for George prevented him from suiting up for the second play-in game, which L.A. lost.

Given how much money they spent on the roster and how little they had to show for it as season’s end (their lottery pick was sent to Oklahoma City as part of the 2019 George deal), it’s easy to view 2021/22 as a lost year for the Clippers. But the opportunities that some of the team’s role players received, and the strides they made, could pay dividends going forward as the roster gets healthier.

The Clippers’ Offseason Plan:

The Clippers got a head-start on their offseason at the trade deadline in February when they sent Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow, Keon Johnson, and a second-round pick to Portland in exchange for Norman Powell and Robert Covington.

It was the sort of move the Clippers couldn’t have waited until the offseason to make, since Bledsoe’s non-guaranteed contract for 2022/23 would’ve complicated salary matching. And it essentially allowed the team to make a pair of veteran “free agent” additions without having the cap space to do so this summer. Powell is under contract for four more seasons, while Covington recently signed a two-year extension that allowed L.A. to secure his rights through 2024. It’s safe to assume both will be key parts of next season’s roster.

With Powell and Covington locked up, Leonard and George hopefully healthier going forward, and Marcus Morris, Kennard, Jackson, Zubac, Mann, and Brandon Boston Jr. all still under team control, the Clippers have a roster capable of seriously contending even without any further additions. However, the team will still have some cap- and roster-related questions to answer.

For one, just how much tax is Steve Ballmer willing to pay? If we assume the Clippers bring back all 10 players listed above, along with 2021 second-rounder Jason Preston, the team’s salary is already up to $168.6MM, far beyond the projected luxury tax line of $149MM. Filling out the roster, including potentially negotiating new deals for Batum, Coffey, and/or Hartenstein, will only push that figure higher.

If Ballmer is willing to pay up, the Clippers have the flexibility to bring their own players back and continue pursuing roster upgrades. Batum’s Early Bird rights and Coffey’s Bird rights should allow for new deals, even if Batum turns down his $3.3MM player option.

L.A. only has Non-Bird rights on Hartenstein, so bringing him back might be trickier, but the team could use some or all of its $6.4MM taxpayer mid-level exception to make him a competitive offer or to sign an adequate replacement. If the team would rather not spend more than the minimum on its backup center, that MLE could be used to address another position.

Should Ballmer feel at all uneasy about his growing tax bill, a trade to shed salary is a possibility. Morris and Kennard are good players, but they may be a little more expendable following the additions of Covington and Powell — one or both could be shopped this offseason.

Even if cutting costs isn’t a priority, the Clippers figure to explore the trade market, since adding one more play-maker – potentially at point guard – has long been on their to-do list. They have a pair of trade exceptions worth between $8-10MM that could come in handy in certain scenarios. If there are no viable trades out there, the Clippers may have to rely on the free agent market to add a lower-cost solution — Ricky Rubio would be an intriguing target if and when he’s healthy.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Marcus Morris (veteran)
  • Ivica Zubac (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Clippers aren’t a taxpayer in 2022/23. To get below the tax line, they’d have to turn down Zubac’s option, let all their free agents walk, and then shed at least $20MM+ more in guaranteed salary before filling out their roster with minimum contracts.

I don’t see that happening, so the Clips will be limited to the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception this offseason and won’t be able to use the bi-annual exception or acquire anyone via sign-and-trade.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 1
  • Trade exception: $9,720,900
  • Trade exception: $8,250,000

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers

May 27th, 2022 at 9:58am CST by Luke Adams

Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.

The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.

If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth 125% of his prior salary, or his minimum salary plus $200K, whichever is greater.

For instance, after earning $1,782,621 this season, Hornets wing Cody Martin projects to have a minimum salary worth $1,876,674 in 2022/23. Adding $200K to that figure works out to $2,076,674, whereas 125% of his prior salary is $2,228,276. His qualifying offer will be worth the higher amount ($2,228,276).

On the other hand, a player like Wizards forward Anthony Gill earned a $1,517,981 salary in 2021/22. Calculating 125% of that amount works out to $1,897,476, whereas his projected minimum salary ($1,811,516) plus $200K would be $2,011,516.

The precise value of Gill’s qualifying offer will depend on where exactly the ’21/22 salary cap ends up, since minimum salaries increase or decrease at the same rate as the cap, but it’s a safe bet his QO will be worth his minimum salary plus $200K.

For a player earning the minimum or something close to it, it’s not always immediately apparent which formula will render the higher qualifying offer. However, it’s more obvious for players earning well above the minimum, such as Nuggets guard Facundo Campazzo. He’ll be eligible for restricted free agency this offseason after earning $3.2MM in 2021/22, and his qualifying offer will be worth 125% of his previous salary: $4MM.

The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. The qualifying offer for a first overall pick is 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it’s 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2018, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.

Here are a pair of examples for this offseason: 2018’s first overall pick, Suns center Deandre Ayton, is coming off a fourth-year salary of $12,632,950, so he must be extended a qualifying offer of $16,422,835 (a 30% increase) to become a restricted free agent. Meanwhile, the 24th overall pick, Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons, will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $5,758,552, a 46.2% increase on this season’s $3,938,818 salary.

A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for some RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. Certain players who meet – or fail to meet – the “starter criteria,” which we break down in a separate glossary entry, become eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers. Here’s how the starter criteria affects QOs:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
    • Note: In 2022, the value of this QO will be $7,228,448.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
    • Note: In 2022, the value of this QO will be $7,921,300.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
    • Note: In 2022, the value of this QO will be $4,869,012.

Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton is one example of a player who falls into the first group, since he didn’t meet the starter criteria this year. The No. 8 overall pick in 2018, Sexton will be eligible this offseason for a QO worth $7,228,448 instead of $8,559,357.

Conversely, Hornets forward Miles Bridges (a former No. 12 overall pick) met the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO worth $7,921,300 instead of $7,459,974.

[RELATED: Potential 2022 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria]

A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.

A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, assuming he has at least four years of NBA experience. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.

Nets guard Bruce Brown was the only noteworthy restricted free agent to accept his qualifying offer during the 2021 offseason. As a result, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2022.

Finally, while the details outlined above apply to players on standard NBA contracts who are eligible for restricted free agency, a different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with $50K guaranteed.

A player who is coming off a two-year, two-way deal, has already been on two-way deals with his current team for at least two seasons, or has accumulated four years of NBA service would be eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract. The guarantee on that QO would have to match or exceed a two-way salary.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

May 26th, 2022 at 8:46am CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks were one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2020/21 NBA season, outperforming expectations by finishing 10 games above .500 and returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Instead of building on that progress in ’21/22, however, the team took a step backward, falling eight games below .500 and missing the playoffs and the play-in tournament entirely.

There were a variety of reasons for the Knicks’ letdown of a season. Regression affected certain players, including Julius Randle, who came back to earth after earning a spot on the All-NBA Second Team and a Most Improved Player award a year ago. Injuries were an issue, with point guard Derrick Rose limited to just 26 appearances. And New York’s offseason personnel changes didn’t pay dividends. Kemba Walker, in particular, was a bust — knee issues continued to diminish his effectiveness, and his offensive production was no longer good enough to make up for his subpar defense.

The Knicks built a reputation as a hard-nosed defensive team under Tom Thibodeau in 2020/21, placing fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, but didn’t look like that same club in the first half of last season. The good news? New York had the NBA’s best defensive rating after the 2022 All-Star break. The team will try to carry over that success to the fall, though it’s safe to assume next season’s roster will look a little different than the one that finished 2021/22.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:

The Knicks’ offseason intentions are difficult to ascertain, and not just because president of basketball operations Leon Rose has zero interest in ever speaking to the media. The team doesn’t project to have any cap room, but it also has very few long-term veteran contracts on its books and has an excess of future draft picks, so there’s some flexibility to make significant changes this summer if the front office wants to take that path.

Rose, Walker, Alec Burks, and Nerlens Noel will earn a combined $43MM in 2022/23, but all four are on either expiring contracts or de facto expiring deals that include a 2023/24 team option, making them intriguing trade chips, either in the offseason or at next year’s trade deadline.

Even the team’s two most expensive veterans, who are on longer-term deals, are potential trade candidates. Randle and Evan Fournier will be more difficult to move since they’re pricier and aren’t coming off their best seasons, which will make it challenging to agree on fair value. But it’s safe to assume the Knicks would listen on either one if they receive inquiries from potential trade partners.

While no player on the Knicks’ roster should be considered a mortal lock to return, RJ Barrett is pretty close. The former No. 3 overall pick struggled to maintain his level of scoring efficiency in 2021/22 as his usage rate continued to increase, but he has shown enough upside to be viewed as a long-term cornerstone in New York.

Barrett will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and it will be interesting to see how the Knicks approach those negotiations. If the 21-year-old isn’t willing to sign for anything less than the maximum salary, the club is probably better off waiting another year to further assess whether he’s worthy of that kind of financial commitment.

Besides Barrett, the Knicks will probably be inclined to hang onto most of the rest of their 24-and-under group, including Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, and Cam Reddish. Perhaps one or two of them could be used to sweeten a trade package for an impact player, but if that sort of deal isn’t available, the team will want to continue evaluating its youngsters to determine which ones are keepers.

Reddish, like Barrett, is extension-eligible this offseason, but the Knicks haven’t seen enough from him yet to guarantee him anything long-term.

As the Knicks consider potential trades or free agent signings, adding a starting point guard remains a top priority. Jalen Brunson has been repeatedly linked to New York for months, and his connections to the franchise (via Rose and his father Rick Brunson) have been well documented, but it won’t be easy to pry him away from the Mavericks, who have repeatedly conveyed a desire to keep him.

Since they won’t have any cap room, the Knicks would either have to shed a couple contracts via trade to create the cap room necessary to make a serious offer for Brunson, or negotiate a sign-and-trade deal with a Dallas team that won’t be eager to help them out.

Neither one of those scenarios is out of the question, especially since Brunson will be unrestricted — if he wants to go to New York, he can make it happen. But the Knicks may be wary about giving up assets (in a sign-and-trade or in salary-dump trades) in order to give an undersized point guard upwards of $20-25MM per year. They weren’t interested in seriously pursuing a similar player (Fred VanVleet) at a similar rate a year ago when they had cap room available, so we’ll see if they make a real push for Brunson or look elsewhere for point guard help.

Trades may be the focus of the offseason for the Knicks, since 13 of their 15 standard-roster players remain under contracts, but there’s one key free agent to watch: big man Mitchell Robinson.

Like Brunson, Robinson signed a four-year contract as a second-round pick and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, having never had to deal with restricted free agency. That will reduce the Knicks’ leverage and allow Robinson to sign outright with a new team without giving his current team a chance to match. It wouldn’t surprise me if he departs, given that he didn’t always seem thrilled about his role in New York — that could open the door for a new team to sell the young center on its vision for him.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($4,508,640)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,508,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • RJ Barrett (rookie scale)
  • Cam Reddish (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Knicks currently project to operate over the cap. Their guaranteed salary and the cap hold for their first-round pick total approximately $118MM, so the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would push team salary well past the projected $122MM cap.

The Knicks remain far below the projected luxury tax line ($149MM), so they should have the flexibility to re-sign Robinson and use the full mid-level exception, if they so choose. Theoretically, New York could even clear a little cap space by moving a mid-sized salary or two, but to take that route, the team would probably need to have a specific free target in mind and be very confident about its chances to secure that target.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 1
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 1
  • Trade exception: $1,175,818

Footnotes

  1. These are projected values. If the Knicks decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exception) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Kyrie Irving’s Future

May 25th, 2022 at 11:33am CST by Luke Adams

Since joining the Nets as a free agent in 2019, Kyrie Irving has played in a total of 103 games for the team. He missed 52 of 72 games in his first year in Brooklyn as a result of a shoulder injury, missed 18 of 72 in his second year, primarily due to personal issues, and then missed 53 of 82 this past season, largely due to his COVID-19 vaccination status.

Irving’s inconsistent availability, which has stemmed both from injury issues and personal choices, is a large reason why the Nets face a difficult decision on him this offseason, when he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency if he turns down his $36.9MM option for 2022/23.

Irving has played at his usual All-Star level when he’s been healthy, averaging an impressive 27.1 PPG, 6.0 APG, and 4.7 RPG on .490/.406/.920 shooting in those 103 appearances (35.3 MPG) he has made with the Nets. But he’s on the wrong side of 30 and his unpredictable personality makes him a difficult player to invest in long-term, especially at a maximum-salary rate.

In fact, Kristian Winfield of The New York Daily News cites a source familiar with the Nets’ thought process who says the team is hesitant – if not altogether unwilling – to give Irving a long-term max deal.

Winfield acknowledges that a one-year contract would likely be unacceptable for Irving, who will be seeking long-term security this offseason, so if he’s going to remain in Brooklyn, the two sides may have to reach some sort of compromise.

When asked about Irving’s future after the end of the Nets’ season, general manager Sean Marks offered no guarantees, talking first about wanting players who are both “selfless” and “available,” then later saying the team needed to talk to Kyrie’s camp to see if it’s “the right fit for both sides.”

Still, it seems likely that Brooklyn would move forward with Irving as long as the team gets some assurances about his commitment to the franchise. For his part, Kyrie has said he doesn’t plan to go anywhere.

If Irving opts out and seeks a new contract, he’d be eligible for a five-year deal worth up to a projected $247.66MM with the Nets. If he were to pick up his option and negotiate an extension from there, his maximum earnings going forward would be a little lower, but he could still get a deal that pays him a total of $232.75MM, plus possible incentives, over the next five years.

Irving could get four years and $183.61MM from another team, but it’s unclear what sort of a market there will be for him outside of Brooklyn, since few contenders have significant cap flexibility and many will be wary of a long-term investment in the seven-time All-Star.

When Irving signed his initial contract with the Nets, the deal technically fell short of the maximum salary, with a series of eight incentives available each season that would increase Kyrie’s salary to the max if he achieved all of them. That structure was designed at the time to allow Brooklyn to maximize its available cap room in 2019, but perhaps a similar format could work for both sides this time around, since incentives tied to total minutes or games played would give the club some protection in seasons when Irving misses time.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Nets could convince Irving to accept a contract further below the max. Brooklyn was his top choice in free agency in 2019 and he hasn’t shown any desire to leave — he also exhibited a willingness to sacrifice some money last season, when his decision not to get vaccinated resulted in hefty per-game fines.

We want to know what you think. Will Irving stick with the Nets? If so, he will he opt out to sign a new deal, opt in and sign an extension, or opt in without an extension? Could he end up playing elsewhere in 2022/23? Wherever he ends up, will his next contract be worth the max?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your two cents on Irving’s future.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win The East?

May 25th, 2022 at 9:03am CST by Luke Adams

The Celtics and Heat are tied at 2-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the games haven’t been as close as the series score suggests. The Celtics’ two wins have come by an average margin of 22.5 points per game, while the Heat used a big third quarter in Game 1 and a big first quarter in Game 3 to build leads they never surrendered.

In addition to being comprised mostly of blowouts, the Eastern Finals have been marred by injuries. Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Marcus Smart, and Robert Williams have all missed at least one game in the series, while others – including Jimmy Butler – have either left a game early due to an injury or have been affected by various ailments throughout the series.

Still, for all its shortcomings, the series has been a compelling one, and it remains very much up for grabs heading into Wednesday’s Game 5. Miami holds home-court advantage and would host a potential Game 7 if it gets that far, but Boston has looked like the slightly better team through four games, posting a +7.7 net rating.

While the Celtics may have played a little better so far, the Heat’s defense gives them a chance almost every night, according to ESPN’s Zach Lowe (Insider link), who looks at some of the biggest questions that could decide the series.

As Lowe writes, Miami is still trying to solve Boston’s half-court defense, but has had success when forcing turnovers — the Celtics turned the ball over 39 times in their two losses, compared to just 18 times in their two victories.

The Heat have also done well when targeting Payton Pritchard and Derrick White and should rely more on that approach as they try to get Butler and Bam Adebayo going, says Lowe. Butler was just 3-of-14 from the floor in Game 4, while Adebayo scored 31 points in Game 3 but has scored just 25 in the series’ other three games.

Williams’ health will be a key factor going forward for the Celtics, Lowe notes, suggesting that if Boston’s starting center is unavailable, the team should lean on a frontcourt duo of Al Horford/Grant Williams before turning to Daniel Theis.

In the other frontcourt, the Heat are minus-19 in 38 minutes with Dewayne Dedmon on the court, but don’t have many other great options to spell Adebayo. Markieff Morris and Omer Yurtseven have been out of the rotation and P.J. Tucker – who is capable of playing small-ball center – has been dealing with injuries and isn’t at 100%.

With Game 5 less than 12 hours from tipping off, we want to know how you think the rest of the series will play out.

When we conducted our first poll on the Eastern Finals, the overwhelming majority of respondents predicted it would go at least six games, and most were betting on a Celtics victory. If you voted in that poll, has your pick changed, or are you sticking with your initial prediction? Do you see this series going the distance, or do you expect either the Celtics or Heat to win the next two games?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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