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Hoops Rumors’ 2021/22 NBA Award Picks

April 15th, 2022 at 7:00am CST by Hoops Rumors

No Hoops Rumors writers are among the 100 media members who voted on the NBA’s award winners in 2022, but we still have some thoughts on which players are most deserving of hardware for their performances this season.

Here are our choices for the six major awards:

Rory Maher

There are plenty of statistics that indicate Jokic was the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, but these are the most convincing, in my opinion: Denver was +19.5 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the court vs. off (compared to +11.3 for Joel Embiid and +10.8 for Giannis Antetokounmpo), per Cleaning the Glass. And despite missing their second- and third-best players, the Nuggets had a .622 winning percentage when Jokic played (a 51-win pace), compared to .250 when he didn’t (a 20.5-win pace).

Mobley and Scottie Barnes were neck-and-neck for Rookie of the Year for me, but I gave Mobley the edge due to his defensive impact.

The Jazz had a 104.5 defensive rating when Gobert was on the court — 1.7 points stingier than Boston’s league-leading mark — and he led the league in rebounding, was third in blocks, and opponents shot significantly worse than expected when he was defending them.

Bane was a solid rotation player as a rookie and a borderline All-Star as a sophomore, nearly doubling his scoring average (9.2 PPG to 18.2 PPG) while maintaining fantastic efficiency for a 56-win Grizzlies squad (the team was just 3-3 without him). There were many other worthy candidates, including Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland, Jordan Poole, Dejounte Murray, Josh Hart and Jarrett Allen. I didn’t seriously consider Ja Morant because putting a player who was already really good as MIP just felt…wrong.

Herro and Williams look like well-earned shoo-ins for their respective awards, but Taylor Jenkins, J.B. Bickerstaff, Nick Nurse, Erik Spoelstra and Ime Udoka also deserve recognition for leading their teams through a challenging season.

Dana Gauruder

Embiid gets the nod over Jokic and several other worthy candidates because his stellar play saved the Sixers’ season despite the turbulence caused by Ben Simmons. Controversies and awkward situations typically tear teams apart. Embiid carried Philadelphia to a tie for the second-best record in the East – the Sixers were 45-23 when he played and just 6-8 without him.

Cunningham got off to a slow start after spraining his ankle in training camp. He lived up to his status as the top pick after the All-Star break, averaging 21.1 PPG, 6.5 APG and 5.7 RPG. He gets a slight nod over Mobley and Barnes.

The Suns rolled to the best record in the league behind a defense that held opponents to the third-worst field goal percentage. Bridges was usually assigned to the other team’s top offensive threat and quietly shut many of them down.

Herro is the easiest pick among the awards. He averaged 20.7 PPG and 4.0 APG in 32.6 MPG for the team with the best record in the East.

The Warriors had to wait for Klay Thompson to return, then lost Stephen Curry for the last few weeks of the season. Poole filled the scoring void during those absences, averaging 18.5 PPG and 4.0 APG in his third season.

The Grizzlies went from four games over .500 last season to 30 games above .500 this season. Even when Morant was injured late in the season, Memphis continued to win. Jenkins deserves plenty of the credit for the dramatic improvement.

Arthur Hill

  • Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
  • Rookie of the Year: Evan Mobley (Cavaliers)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Smart (Celtics)
  • Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
  • Most Improved Player: Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
  • Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies)

Jokic’s brilliance kept the Nuggets competitive despite playing nearly an entire season without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. His offensive production has exceeded what he did when he won the award last season, and his defense has gotten better as well.

Mobley landed on a perfect team for his skill set and he helped the Cavs become a surprise contender. With a unique mixture of offensive talents and a dominating presence on defense, he excelled amid the pressures of a playoff race.

Smart became a full-time point guard this season and played an important role in Boston’s smothering defense. Smart has been openly campaigning for the award, touting his ability to guard all five positions, and there’s a good chance that voters will listen to his argument.

Herro provides Miami with the league’s most dangerous weapon off the bench, averaging 20.7 PPG and shooting 39.9% from three-point range. He has a chance to win several Sixth Man awards during his career if he remains in his current role.

Morant was already really good, but he has taken his game to an elite level during his third NBA season. He posted career highs in every major category and seemed to provide a few highlight-reel plays every night. His presence will make the Grizzlies a difficult playoff matchup for anyone.

No team has exceeded expectations more than Memphis, which climbed to the No. 2 seed in the West. Jenkins gets contributions from nearly his entire roster and has put together a young, exciting squad that is both successful and fun to watch.

Alex Kirschenbaum

  • Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
  • Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Mikal Bridges (Suns)
  • Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
  • Most Improved Player: Desmond Bane (Grizzlies)
  • Coach of the Year: Monty Williams (Suns)

The MVP race has come down to a contest between three big men for the first time in eons, and you can’t go wrong with any of them. Among them, Giannis Antetokounmpo – the reigning Finals MVP and two-time regular season MVP – is the best player on the best team. While Nikola Jokic boasts some surreal offensive stats, I don’t love giving my vote to players on teams that occupy the bottom halves of their conference’s playoff picture. A team’s place in the standings should matter, though the injuries to Jokic’s two best teammates certainly limited Denver’s ceiling.

Scottie Barnes is a quintessential Masai Ujiri player — a big, switchy, athletic forward who already looks destined to become an impact defender. His game is incredibly fun to watch, and it’s always nice to see players with so much two-way ability get recognized with end-of-year hardware. Between Barnes and Evan Mobley, it has been a heck of a year for big two-way rookies.

Miles Bridges has been a critical and somewhat under-appreciated piece for a stellar 64-18 Suns team that appears to be the heavy title favorite, assuming Chris Paul holds up for four playoff rounds. It’s time for the wings to reclaim this award from the trees! Bridges’s stifling defense has been a crucial cog for one of the best two-way teams in the league. The premiere swingman defender of the 2021/22 season deserves this nod.

Someone on Miami should win something, but that’s not why Herro is the Sixth Man of the Year. He deserves this, as the de facto late game bucket-getter for the top club in an unusually competitive Eastern Conference. His defensive liabilities are the reason he’s a sixth man rather than a starter, but this award isn’t for Starter of the Year, so that’s not really a problem. The 22-year-old third-year guard out of Kentucky, in line for a lucrative contract extension this summer, averaged career-bests of 20.7 PPG (on .447/.399/.868 shooting), 5.0 RPG, 4.0 APG and 0.7 SPG in 66 games for the 53-29 Heat.

I’ve loved to see Desmond Bane’s transformation while with the Grizzlies. It’s always exciting to watch a young non-lottery player (he was the No. 30 pick in 2020 out of TCU) without a traditionally definable role evolve into a crucial part of a playoff contender, and Bane is this year’s model. In his second season, the resilient wing has established himself as the full-time starter for the second seed in the Western Conference. His counting stats have seen a massive uptick from his rookie numbers of 9.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.7 APG in 22.3 MPG during 2020/21. This season, in 76 games (all starts) for a 56-26 Memphis club, Bane averaged 18.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.7 APG and 1.2 SPG. He also posted elite shooting splits of .461/.436/.903.

Yes, Taylor Jenkins is nipping at Monty Williams’ heels for Coach of the Year honors this season. But awarding the hardware to Williams for what he’s done with the Suns in 2021/22 is not a “make-up” award (the NBA equivalent of Al Pacino winning his first-ever Oscar, about two decades too late, for Scent of a Woman). Williams was the head coach for the team that has by far been the best in the NBA this year, not an easy feat to achieve following a disappointing 2021 Finals loss. Over the course of his tenure in Phoenix, Williams has taken a lottery-bound 2019/20 club to the class of the league in just three seasons. Yes, personnel moves had an impact on that, too, but Williams has been able to guide the Suns’ many young guns to maximize their potential, alongside the team’s savvy vets.

Luke Adams

  • Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
  • Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
  • Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
  • Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey (Sixers)
  • Coach of the Year: Monty Williams (Suns)

It’s a brutal year to pick an MVP and a Rookie of the Year — the top three contenders for each award would be runaway favorites in most other seasons and any of them would be worthy winners.

I ultimately gravitated toward Jokic and Barnes, in part because they played significantly more than the other top MVP and ROY candidates. When two or three players are producing at such a similar rate, the one who performed at that level for an extra few hundred minutes is inherently providing his team more value over the course of the season. Jokic’s staggering on/off-court numbers and Barnes’ impressive defensive versatility (he guarded every position and often took on the most challenging perimeter assignments) were also among the deciding factors.

Voter fatigue and Utah’s up-and-down season will likely result in a new Defensive Player of the Year this year, but I couldn’t find a compelling reason not to pick Gobert, who remained elite in 2021/22 and whose presence in the paint does more to alter an offensive game plan than a single perimeter stopper can. Despite a relative lack of strong defenders around Gobert, the Jazz played like the NBA’s best defense when he was on the court and were the equivalent of the league’s 21st-best defense when he sat. Bam Adebayo and Draymond Green rivaled Gobert’s impact, but missed a little too much of the season — 26 and 36 games, respectively.

Most Improved Player is nearly as difficult to pick this season as MVP and ROY, with a larger pool of legitimate candidates. I don’t subscribe to the notion that second-year players don’t deserve this award (sure, they’re “supposed to” improve, but the award isn’t Most Unexpectedly Improved Player), so I’ll give the nod to Maxey, who played the most minutes of any Sixer this season and whose huge jumps in both production and efficiency helped the team withstand Simmons’ absence without missing a beat.

Herro averaged over 20 points per game and shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc for the East’s No. 1 seed, while Williams led the West’s No. 1 seed to a 64-win season (and an incredible +33.4 net rating in “clutch” situations) despite missing Paul for a few weeks in the second half. Herro and Williams are betting favorites for their respective awards for good reason.

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Poll: Friday’s Play-In Games

April 14th, 2022 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

Through four games, there have been no upsets in the NBA’s 2022 play-in tournament. Both No. 7 seeds won on Tuesday and both No. 9 seeds were victorious on Wednesday, setting up a pair of No. 8 vs. No. 9 showdowns on Friday.

In the East, it’ll be the No. 9 Hawks visiting the No. 8 Cavaliers, and for the first time in this year’s play-in tournament, the road team will enter the game as the betting favorite. The Hawks are currently favored by 2.5 points on BetOnline.ag.

Although the Hawks finished the season a game behind the Cavaliers in the standings, Atlanta was clearly the better team in the second half. While the Hawks finished the season on a 26-14 run, the Cavs struggled to hold their spot in the Eastern Conference standings after a hot start and went 9-17 down the stretch. The two teams’ play-in results so far reflect that second-half momentum — Cleveland never led against Brooklyn on Tuesday, while Atlanta controlled Wednesday’s game against Charlotte for nearly the entire night.

Cleveland’s home-court advantage will be a boon. And if Jarrett Allen is able to return from his finger injury while John Collins‘ own finger and foot injuries keep him sidelined, the Cavs should have an advantage in the frontcourt. But there’s a real possibility that after holding a top-six spot for much of the season, Cleveland could miss the playoffs altogether.

[Note: The following section on the Western play-in game was written before word broke that Paul George will miss the game due to a positive COVID-19 test.]

In the West, the No. 8 Clippers will host the No. 9 Pelicans, with L.A. listed as a four-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag.

The Clippers finished the year six games ahead of the Pelicans in the standings, but those end-of-season records are somewhat misleading. Since November 17, New Orleans has actually been better (34-32) than Los Angeles (33-35), and the Pelicans have taken another step forward since acquiring CJ McCollum at the trade deadline.

Of course, that’s not to say that the Clippers were spiraling when the regular season ended — they’d just gotten Paul George and Norman Powell back in their lineup following lengthy injury absences and won their last five games of the year before losing a tight one in Minnesota on Tuesday.

Friday’s do-or-die late game would be can’t-miss TV if injured forwards Kawhi Leonard (ACL) and Zion Williamson (foot) were available, but even without those stars on the court, these are two talented, well-coached teams who each look capable of securing the No. 8 spot in the West.

We want to know what you think. Which teams will claim the final two playoff spots on Friday, and which two clubs are headed home?

Vote in our poll before Friday night, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

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Key 2022 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

April 13th, 2022 at 2:17pm CST by Luke Adams

With the 2021/22 NBA regular season in the books, 10 teams have shifted their focus to the offseason and others will soon follow suit.

That means it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the ’21/22 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months.

Here’s a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines for the next few months, right up until training camps open for the 2022/23 season:

April 18

  • NBA conducts random tiebreakers for lottery and draft positioning (link).

April 24

  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

May 16-22

  • NBA draft combine.

May 17

  • NBA draft lottery.

June 1

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59pm CT).

June 2

  • NBA Finals begin.

June 13

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00pm CT).

June 19

  • Latest possible end date for NBA Finals.

June 23

  • NBA draft day.

June 29

  • Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options (certain contracts will require earlier decisions).
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

June 30

July 1

  • Official start of the 2022/23 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.
  • Teams can begin exercising the third- or fourth-year team options for 2023/24 on rookie scale contracts.

July 6

  • Moratorium period ends (11:01am CT)
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades (11:01am CT).
  • The two-day period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins.

July 7-17

  • Las Vegas Summer League.

July 13

  • Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

August 31

  • Last day for teams to waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2022/23 salaries.

September 5

  • Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned second-round picks; those players become free agents on September 6 if not tendered.

Late September (specific dates TBA)

  • Training camps open.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and NBA.com were used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Wednesday’s Play-In Games

April 13th, 2022 at 7:22am CST by Luke Adams

There were no major surprises in Tuesday’s NBA play-in games. The favorites in those two matchups, the No. 7 Nets and the No. 7 Timberwolves, picked up home victories to secure the No. 7 seeds in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference, respectively. Brooklyn will face Boston in the first round of the playoffs, while Minnesota will take on Memphis.

Having lost on Tuesday, the No. 8 Cavaliers and No. 8 Clippers are now preparing to host play-in games on Friday to decide the No. 8 seed in each conference. Their opponents will be determined in a pair of Wednesday play-in contests.

First up, in the East, is a meeting of Southeast rivals, as the No. 10 Hornets visit the No. 9 Hawks.

Both teams finished the season strong — after a tough 17-25 start, Atlanta went 26-14 the rest of the way to secure a play-in berth. The Hornets, meanwhile, lost 13 of 17 games during an extended slump from January to March, but bounced back to win 11 of their last 15 en route to a play-in spot.

The Hawks and Hornets will each be missing a key player, as big man John Collins and forward Gordon Hayward have been ruled out due to injuries. But star point guards Trae Young and LaMelo Ball are still surrounded by strong supporting casts, with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari playing major roles for Atlanta, while Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Kelly Oubre, and Montrezl Harrell complement Ball for Charlotte.

Both Southeast clubs paired top-10 offenses (No. 2 for Atlanta and No. 8 for Charlotte) with bottom-10 defenses (No. 22 for Charlotte and No. 26 for Atlanta) and finished in the middle of the pack in net rating (No. 14 for Atlanta and No. 16 for Charlotte). The Hawks’ home-court advantage helps make them a five-point favorite, according to BetOnline.ag.

Over in the West, the No. 9 Pelicans will host the No. 10 Spurs in Wednesday’s late game.

The Pelicans – a five-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag – generated more buzz than the Spurs down the stretch following a splashy trade deadline that saw them acquire star guard CJ McCollum. The longtime Blazer joined former All-Star Brandon Ingram, standout rookie Herbert Jones, double-double machine Jonas Valanciunas, and center-turned-forward Jaxson Hayes in what has become a formidable starting five. That group has posted a +8.2 net rating in 142 minutes.

The Spurs, meanwhile, were overlooked and viewed as a probable lottery team for much of the season, but they took advantage of the Trail Blazers’ decision to tank and the Lakers’ and Kings’ inability to win games consistently and claimed the West’s final play-in spot.

At 34-48, the Spurs are far from a juggernaut and aren’t loaded with star power, but All-Star guard Dejounte Murray, third-year forward Keldon Johnson, and center Jakob Poeltl had strong seasons, and the club’s rotation is filled out by useful role players like Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson, and Tre Jones.

Those looking for a reason to pick a San Antonio upset should note that the team actually had a better record on the road (18-23) than at home (16-25) this season, and registered a better net rating (+0.2) than the Pelicans (-0.8).

We want to know what you think. Will the favorites win again in Wednesday’s play-in games or will we get at least one upset tonight? Which teams will stay alive and which will head home for the season?

Make your picks in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in on tonight’s play-in matchups!

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Revisiting 2021/22 NBA Over/Under Predictions

April 12th, 2022 at 7:30am CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2021/22 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Nets (55.5 wins) to the Magic (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the fifth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three years, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record. Did that success carry over to ’21/22? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 55.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Under 51.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
  • Boston Celtics (Over 46.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
  • New York Knicks (Over 42.5 wins): ❌ (37-45)
  • Toronto Raptors (Under 36.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 54.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
  • Indiana Pacers (Under 42.5 wins): ✅ (25-57)
  • Chicago Bulls (Over 42.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 26.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
  • Detroit Pistons (Under 25.5 wins): ✅ (23-59)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (Under 48.5 wins): ❌ (53-29)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (43-39)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (43-39)
  • Washington Wizards (Over 34.5 wins): ✅ (35-47)
  • Orlando Magic (Under 22.5 wins): ✅ (22-60)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on the Nets and the Raptors resulted in a sub-.500 record for our voters in the Atlantic division, despite a narrow win on the Sixers under.

The results were better in the Central and Southeast, where most of the misses were only off by a few games. The one big misstep in those two divisions was on the Cavaliers, who exceeded their projected win total by more than any other team in the East.

Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Utah Jazz (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
  • Denver Nuggets (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (27-55)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 34.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 23.5 wins): ❌ (24-58)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (33-49)
  • Phoenix Suns (Over 51.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)
  • Golden State Warriors (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (53-29)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Over 43.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
  • Sacramento Kings (Under 36.5 wins): ✅ (30-52)

Southwest:

  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (52-30)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (Over 41.5 wins): ✅ (56-26)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Under 39.5 wins): ✅ (36-46)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Over 29.5 wins): ✅ (34-48)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 26.5 wins): ✅ (20-62)

Western Conference record: 8-7

In 2020/21, our voters went 5-0 in the Northwest by picking the teams expected to be above .500 to go over their projected win totals and the sub-.500 teams to go under. The same approach this season resulted in an 0-5 mark in the division, with the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves representing the Northwest’s biggest misses.

In the Pacific, injuries played a part in the Lakers and Clippers falling short of beating their projected win totals, but even a fully healthy Lakers team likely wouldn’t have won 53-plus games.

We did well with the non-L.A. teams in the Pacific and crushed the Southwest, where all five teams met our voters’ expectations (whether over or under) by at least three games. That 5-0 Southwest record helped secure an overall winning record this season.

Overall record: 16-14

For the second season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s all the more impressive given how many teams were affected by injuries, not to mention the way rosters were turned upside down in December and January due to COVID-19 outbreaks across the NBA.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Poll: Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Games

April 11th, 2022 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

A year ago, the NBA scheduled its first two Eastern Conference play-in games for the Tuesday after the regular season ended, with both the Western Conference games taking place on the Wednesday.

The league has tweaked that schedule this time around — Tuesday’s slate of games will feature one from each conference, with the Nos. 7 and 8 teams all in action. The Nos. 9 and 10 teams in both conferences will play on Wednesday.

[RELATED: NBA’s Play-In Field, Top-Six Playoff Seeds Set]

That means we’ll know by the end of the night on Tuesday which two teams will claim the No. 7 playoff seeds, securing first-round matchups against the Celtics in the East and the Grizzlies in the West.

The Nets are eight-point favorites over the Cavaliers in the first of Tuesday’s play-in games, according to BetOnline.ag, and for good reason. The game will be played in Brooklyn, where Kyrie Irving is now eligible to play despite not having received a COVID-19 vaccine. And after a strong start to the season, Cleveland didn’t play well down the stretch, posting a 9-16 record since the All-Star break.

Injuries will also be a factor in this game. Irving and Kevin Durant are both healthy, which is more than can be said about the Cavs’ All-Stars. While Darius Garland is good to go, center Jarrett Allen continues to battle a fractured finger and there’s pessimism he’ll be available on Tuesday. Ben Simmons and Joe Harris will be sidelined for Brooklyn, but the Nets have gotten used to playing without those guys — Harris hasn’t played since mid-November and Simmons has yet to make his Nets debut.

Over in the West, the Timberwolves will host the Clippers after finishing four games ahead of them during the regular season. Still, BetOnline.ag only lists Minnesota as a three-point favorite for the time being.

The Clippers are getting healthy at the right time, which is one reason why they’re viewed as a candidate to make a little noise in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard continues to recover from his ACL surgery, but Paul George has been back in the lineup since late March and Norman Powell returned last week.

Winning in Minnesota will be a tall order for L.A. though. The Wolves have been one of the NBA’s most dangerous teams since the new year, having gone 30-16 following a 16-20 start to the season. The trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has been tough to stop on offense, while Patrick Beverley and Jarred Vanderbilt helped anchor an above-average defense.

We want to know what you think. Which teams will win Tuesday’s play-in games and become this season’s No. 7 seeds?

Vote in our poll below, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Checking In On NBA’s 2022 Lottery Standings, Projected Draft Order

April 11th, 2022 at 7:56am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021/22 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for June 23 has not yet been set.

A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 60 picks in the 2021 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.

With the help of data from Tankathon and our own reverse standings, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
HOU 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
ORL 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
OKC 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
IND 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
POR 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
SAC 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
LAL 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
SAS* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
WAS 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
NOP* 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
NYK 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
CHA* 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
ATL* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

(* Asterisks denote play-in teams)

Because the Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, assuming neither one makes the playoffs. So their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Hawks were to win the random tiebreaker, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could (or will) lose their picks. The Lakers‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 (99.6%) or the Grizzlies if it falls outside the top 10.

The Pelicans‘ own pick is top-four protected and will go to the Trail Blazers if it falls any later in the lottery (90.6%). If New Orleans makes the playoffs, their first-rounder will go to the Hornets.

The play-in factor

The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:

  • San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
  • Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
  • Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
  • Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)

Based on their 46-36 record, the Timberwolves could end up with a pick as low as No. 19 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

The Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, while the Cavaliers and Nets were each 44-38, so if both teams in either of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

If, for example, Brooklyn makes the playoffs and Cleveland doesn’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary, since the Cavs would be in the lottery and the Nets wouldn’t.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

  1. Atlanta Hawks / Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
  2. Brooklyn Nets / Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Nets’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers if it lands outside of the top 14.
  3. Chicago Bulls / Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs.
  4. Denver Nuggets / Toronto Raptors (48-34)
    • Note: The Raptors’ pick will be sent to the Spurs.
  5. Boston Celtics / Milwaukee Bucks / Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
    • Note: The Celtics’ pick will be sent to the Spurs; the Sixers’ pick will be sent to the Nets (unless Brooklyn exercises its option to defer the pick until 2023).
  6. Miami Heat / Golden State Warriors (53-29)

These tiebreakers will be conducted by the NBA next Monday (April 18).

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2022 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

  • Pelicans or Grizzlies acquiring Lakers‘ pick (unprotected).
    • This pick will almost certainly end up in the top 10 (most likely at No. 8 or No. 9) and go to the Pelicans. There’s only a 0.4% chance it will land at No. 11 and No. 12 and be sent to Memphis instead.
  • Thunder acquiring Clippers‘ pick (unprotected).
    • If the Clippers secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be either No. 15 or No. 16. If the Clippers don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick (unprotected).
    • If the Nets secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will land in the 16-18 range. If the Nets don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Spurs acquiring Raptors‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will land at either No. 20 or No. 21, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (top-six protected).
    • This pick will be No. 22.
  • Spurs acquiring Celtics‘ pick (top-four protected).
    • This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Thunder acquiring Suns‘ pick (top-12 protected).
    • This pick will be No. 30.

Picks that won’t change hands:

  • Thunder acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-7, falling in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Thunder their 2023 first-round pick (top-18 protected).
  • Hawks acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-8, falling in its protected range. The Thunder will instead send their own 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to Atlanta and their obligation to the Hawks will be extinguished.
  • Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-10, falling in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
  • Hawks acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-18 protected).
    • Even if the Hornets earn a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be between 15-18, falling in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Hawks their 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected).
  • Rockets acquiring Heat‘s pick (unprotected swap)
    • The Rockets have the ability to swap their own pick or the Nets’ pick for the Heat’s pick, but the Heat’s pick will be the lowest of the bunch (either No. 27 or No. 28, depending on the tiebreaker results), so Miami will keep it and their obligation to the Rockets will be extinguished.

Picks that might change hands:

  • Trail Blazers or Hornets acquiring Pelicans‘ pick (various protections).
    • If the Pelicans secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, their pick would be either No. 15 or No. 16 and would be sent to the Hornets. If the Pelicans miss the playoffs, they could still keep their pick if it moves into the top four in the lottery, but the odds of that wouldn’t be better than 13.9%. The Trail Blazers will receive it if it lands in the 5-14 range.
    • If the Trail Blazers don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans would owe Portland the Bucks’ 2025 first-round pick.
    • If the Hornets don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans will instead send their own 2022 and 2024 second-round picks to Charlotte and their obligation to the Hornets will be extinguished.
  • Pacers acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • The Cavaliers must secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament in order for the Pacers to receive this pick. If Cleveland makes the playoffs, the pick will land somewhere in the 16-18 range.
  • Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (unprotected)
    • This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results. The Nets will have the option to let the Sixers keep it and instead acquire Philadelphia’s unprotected 2023 first-round pick.
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Super-Max Candidates Who Will Be Impacted By 2021/22 All-NBA Picks

April 8th, 2022 at 1:43pm CST by Luke Adams

A player who has no more than six years of NBA experience is typically eligible for a maximum salary starting at 25% of the salary cap; a player with between seven and nine years of NBA service is eligible for a max deal starting at 30% of the cap; and a player with 10 or more years of experience can earn a starting salary worth up to 35% of the cap.

However, the NBA’s super-max rules, which we explain in a pair of glossary entries, allow players who don’t yet have 10 years of experience to move into higher maximum-salary tiers. By meeting certain criteria, players with seven to nine years of experience can become eligible for salaries worth up to 35% of the cap, while players with six years (or less) of service time can qualify for up to 30% of the cap.

The super-max performance criteria is as follows (only one of the following must be true):

  • The player was named to an All-NBA team and/or was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.
  • The player was named the NBA MVP in any of the three most recent seasons.

A player who has seven or eight years of NBA service with one or two years left on his contract becomes eligible for what is known as a “Designated Veteran” extension if he meets the required performance criteria and hasn’t been traded since his first four years in the league. A Designated Veteran contract can also be signed by a player who is technically a free agent if he has eight or nine years of service and meets the required criteria.

Nuggets star Nikola Jokic met the super-max performance criteria a year ago when he won his first MVP award. However, since he still only had six years of NBA experience under his belt at the time, he couldn’t actually sign a Designated Veteran extension with Denver until the summer of 2022. The expectation is that Jokic will sign a five-year contract extension with a starting salary worth 35% of the 2023/24 cap this offseason.

Players who are coming off their rookie contracts and meet the super-max performance criteria become eligible for what is colloquially known as a “Rose Rule” contract, starting at 30% of the cap instead of 25%. The rule is unofficially named after Derrick Rose, who won an MVP award in 2011 while he was still on his rookie deal.

Mavericks star Luka Doncic qualified for a Rose Rule super-max deal by earning All-NBA honors in his second and third NBA seasons in 2020 and 2021. Even if he doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season (he will), he already met the performance criteria by being named an All-NBA player in two of the three seasons before his new contract will take effect. When the Mavs signed Doncic to a rookie scale extension last offseason, they agreed it would start at 30% of the 2022/23 cap. Currently, that five-year deal projects to be worth over $212MM.

Not every player is as fortunate as Jokic or Doncic though. Most of the players who have a shot at becoming eligible for a super-max contract this year will need to earn a spot on one of the 2021/22 All-NBA teams in order to qualify.

Here’s a closer look at some of the players who have a lot riding on this season’s All-NBA picks from a financial perspective:

Trae Young (Hawks)

When Young signed a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension with the Hawks last August, the two sides agreed to include Rose Rule language in the agreement, opening the door for Young’s starting salary to be worth 30% of the cap (instead of 25%) when the deal begins in 2022/23. In order for that to happen though, Young has to earn one of 15 All-NBA spots this season.

It looked in the first half, as Atlanta got off to a 17-25 start, like Young would be a long shot to make an All-NBA team. However, as they did a year ago, the Hawks have played much better in the second half and Young has been leading the team’s push for a playoff spot.

Young’s season-long averages of 28.3 PPG and 9.7 APG in 74 games (34.9 MPG) make him a legitimate All-NBA candidate, even if he’s penalized a little for his subpar defense. While Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, and Ja Morant are probably ahead of him among potential All-NBA guards, Young looks like a strong Third Team contender, especially if voters consider DeMar DeRozan to be a forward.

Based on the NBA’s latest cap projections, Young would be in line for a $212.3MM payday if he’s named to an All-NBA team or $176.9MM if he isn’t. That’s a difference of more than $35MM, so voters will have to think carefully about which players they select as their six All-NBA guards this spring.

Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves)

Devin Booker (Suns)

Unlike Young, Towns and Booker have yet to lock in extensions with their respective teams and aren’t facing do-or-die All-NBA decisions this spring. However, both players would become eligible for super-max contract extensions (worth 35% of the cap instead of 30%) if they’re named to an All-NBA team this season.

The current contracts for Towns and Booker are virtually identical, and if they both earn All-NBA nods, their next deals could be too. With seven years of NBA experience and two years left on their respective contracts, they’d be eligible to sign four-year, Designated Veteran extensions this offseason.

Those deals wouldn’t go into effect until 2024/25, so it’s difficult to pin down exactly how much they’d be worth. We don’t yet have solid cap projections for that season. But if we assume a $130MM salary cap for that ’24/25, a four-year contract starting at 35% of the cap would work out to approximately $204MM.

First though, Towns and Booker will need to earn All-NBA spots. Booker looks like a lock, having been the go-to offensive option for the league’s best team.

Towns’ spot isn’t quite as certain, since he’ll be behind centers Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, and Rudy Gobert‘s defensive dominance always makes him an All-NBA threat. But I think voters will favor Towns over Gobert and other centers (such as Bam Adebayo). There’s even a possibility that both Jokic and Embiid could end up on the First Team if voters put one of the two stars at forward, which would leave both the Second Team and Third Team center spots up for grabs and make Towns a slam-dunk choice.

Zach LaVine (Bulls)

LaVine will have eight years of NBA service under his belt when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this offseason and will be eligible for a maximum salary starting at 30% of the cap. An All-NBA nod would bump that number up to 35%, but that doesn’t look nearly as realistic for LaVine as it did earlier in the season.

Slowed by knee pain, LaVine has seen his numbers dip a little in the second half, and while they’re still strong overall (24.4 PPG on .475/.389/.852 shooting), his teammate DeRozan is more likely to earn All-NBA accolades. And after slipping to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, Chicago is unlikely to be rewarded with two All-NBA selections.

Assuming LaVine doesn’t make an All-NBA team, his projected five-year maximum contract with the Bulls will be worth $212.3MM instead of $247.7MM.

The rest

The players listed above aren’t the only ones who have super-max eligibility on the line with this year’s All-NBA vote. But they’re the only ones among that group who are realistic candidates to actually make one of those All-NBA teams.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Michael Porter Jr., for instance, signed rookie scale extensions with Rose Rule language last offseason and would be eligible for higher max salaries if they make an All-NBA team, but obviously they won’t. Suns center Deandre Ayton, a restricted free agent this summer, would qualify for a 30% max salary with an All-NBA spot, and he certainly has a better case than Gilgeous-Alexander or Porter. But he’ll fall short too.

When this season’s All-NBA teams are eventually announced, Young, Towns, Booker, and – to a lesser extent – LaVine are the best candidates to benefit financially.

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Checking In On Active 10-Day Contracts

April 5th, 2022 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

With just six days left in the 2021/22 season, no more standard 10-day contracts will be signed this spring.

Teams looking to fill open 15-man roster spots will do what the Pistons did with Carsen Edwards or what the Bucks are doing with Luca Vildoza, signing players to rest-of-season contracts, ideally with at least one extra non-guaranteed year tacked onto those deals.

It is possible that one or two more “10-day” contracts will be signed by teams eligible for hardship exceptions. Those clubs have full 15-man rosters but are hardship-eligible either because a player tested positive for COVID-19 or because several of their players are injured.

Those hardship 10-days, like the one the Thunder completed with Georgios Kalaitzakis on Monday, are technically just rest-of-season contracts that don’t give the team any form of Bird rights this offseason. Kalaitzakis will become a free agent immediately after the season ends, and Oklahoma City won’t be able to use the Non-Bird exception to re-sign him in the summer.

Here are the remaining active 10-day contracts, which will expire in the coming days:

The Mavericks, Thunder, and Trail Blazers have full 15-man rosters, so they won’t create any openings on their respective rosters when their current 10-day agreements expire.

However, the Jazz, Celtics, Pacers, and Magic are each using a roster spot on a 10-day player. When those contracts expire, those clubs could either bring back the same player on a rest-of-season contract or use that 15th slot on someone else. For instance, Utah might want to promote two-way player Trent Forrest to its standard roster to ensure that he’s playoff-eligible.

Nearly any free agent signed to a rest-of-season deal using a 15-man roster spot will be playoff-eligible, so the Jazz and Celtics will have plenty of options. Semi Ojeleye, Kyle Guy, Joel Ayayi, Luka Samanic, and Chris Smith are the only players who have been placed on waivers since March 1, making them ineligible for the postseason.

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2022 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

April 4th, 2022 at 10:38am CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than two-and-a-half months away from NBA draft day, but before we get to June 23, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:

April 24 (11:59 pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College players and international early entrants have until the end of the day on April 24 to submit their names into the 2022 NBA draft pool. They can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they can’t hire an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

Once the early entrant list is set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players.

May 16-17: NBA G League Elite Camp (tentative)

In 2019, the Elite Camp – having recently been revamped by the NBA – consisted of 40 veteran G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half.

After being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Elite Camp returned in 2021, but only featured 40 draft-eligible prospects, without the G League players. That format will carry over to this year.

May 18-22: NBA draft combine

This week-long event, which takes place in Chicago, allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players.

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

May 17: NBA draft lottery

The 2022 draft lottery will be the fourth one that uses the new format, which was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

The new system has generated some excitement during the past three draft lotteries — six of the 12 teams that have claimed top-four picks since 2019 entered the night without a top-six spot in the lottery standings.

Our reverse standings provide a glimpse at what the pre-lottery draft order could look like.

June 1 (11:59 pm ET): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen – and seniors who are eligible to play for more one season – who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by June 1. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine.

An early entrant could technically wait until after June 1 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad.

June 13 (5:00 pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether or not a college player decided to keep his name in the draft, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to June 13.

June 23: NBA draft day

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when some of the first major trades of the summer are completed and when we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

It’s also worth noting that the hours and days after the draft ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 60 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

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