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NBA Player Option Decisions For 2022/23

April 18th, 2022 at 8:31am CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the last year of his deal and finish out his contract or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

Several factors play a part in a player’s option decision. The value of the option salary is obviously crucial, as is the player’s performance in the season leading up to his decision.

The state of the NBA’s salary cap also generally becomes a necessary consideration for players weighing their decisions. If the salary cap is projected to increase only modestly, or if not many teams around the league project to have cap room, a player may be more inclined to take the guaranteed money rather than trying his luck on the open market.

This year’s player options are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the spring and early summer to note the latest decisions as they’re reported or announced.

While some players may face earlier deadlines, all option decisions must be finalized by June 29.

Brooklyn Nets

Chicago Bulls

Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

Detroit Pistons

Houston Rockets

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Miami Heat

Milwaukee Bucks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto Raptors

Washington Wizards

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Community Shootaround: First Round Of Playoffs

April 16th, 2022 at 9:46am CST by Dana Gauruder

With the play-in tournament in the rearview mirror, the NBA playoffs officially begin on Saturday. There are a lot of intriguing first-round matchups and we could see quite of few of them reach the seven-game limit.

Let’s take a quick look at all eight series:

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

  • No. 1 Suns vs. No. 8 Pelicans — Phoenix deserves to be the favorite to come out of the West again after cruising to the league’s best record. New Orleans is happy to get here after a woeful start and going without Zion Williamson all season. Can CJ McCollum match Devin Booker in the scoring column?
  • No. 2 Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Timberwolves — Ja Morant says he’s ready to go after a late-season injury scare. Vastly-improved Memphis has a strong supporting cast around Morant but have to neutralize the high-scoring trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards.
  • No. 3 Warriors vs. No. 6 Nuggets — Stephen Curry is expected to return from his foot injury just in time for Golden State’s postseason run. The Warriors don’t have a true center to guard superstar Nikola Jokic, so they’ll throw all kinds of looks at him.
  • No. 4 Mavericks vs. No. 5 Jazz — Luka Doncic‘s calf strain changes the whole dynamic of this series. Can Dallas hang in there with its franchise player either sidelined or less than 100 percent? Utah stumbled down the stretch but it’s healthier than last postseason and Donovan Mitchell will undoubtedly ramp up his production.

That brings us to our question of the day: Who are your picks to win all the first-round playoff series?

Please take to the comments section to make your selections. We look forward to your input.

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Potential 2022 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 15th, 2022 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

  • A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
  • A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the 2020/21 season. We outlined those tweaks at the start of the season.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Bruce Brown met the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, increasing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,736,102. The Nets decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it. Had he fallen short of the starter criteria, Brown only would have been eligible for a qualifying offer worth around $2MM and his free agency could have played out very differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who did not meet the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,228,448.

Seven of the 14 players selected with lottery picks in the 2018 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2021, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason.

Of the other seven, the three players listed above failed to meet the criteria. Bagley is the biggest loser in the trio — his qualifying offer would’ve been worth approximately $14.76MM if he had met the starter criteria. Sexton’s would’ve been about $8.56MM, while Knox’s would’ve been $7.92MM.

Even with the amount of his qualifying offer lowered a little, Knox likely won’t receive a QO at all, making him an unrestricted free agent. Bagley and Sexton are much safer bets for QOs.

Top-14 picks Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Mohamed Bamba (Magic), each met the starter criteria, locking in their QO amounts at $16.42MM and $10.1MM, respectively. Miles Bridges (Hornets) also met the starter criteria, as detailed in the next section.

Jerome Robinson was the only top-14 pick from ’18 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — he’s no longer on an NBA roster and won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer this summer.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A player who fell into this category would see the amount of his qualifying offer increase to $7,921,300. Bridges, the No. 12 overall pick, was the only player to qualify.

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Bridges’ qualifying offer will increase from about $7.46MM to $7.92MM, a modest bump. It shouldn’t change the outlook of his free agency, since he’ll almost certainly receive a lucrative long-term offer.

Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons looked like one of the best candidates to join Bridges in this group. He needed to make 41 starts this season for Portland, but only got to 30 before he was shut down for the season with a left knee injury. His qualifying offer will remain at $5.76MM, but that shouldn’t have a major impact on his free agency, since he’ll likely work out a multiyear deal with the Blazers.

Meanwhile, because Kings wing Donte DiVincenzo was a full-time starter for the Bucks in 2020/21, he only needed to make seven starts this season to meet the starter criteria. However, he ultimately started just once for Milwaukee and Sacramento, even when he was playing heavy minutes down the stretch for the Kings.

DiVincenzo’s qualifying offer will remain at $6.6MM, which actually could have a tangible effect on his free agency — if he doesn’t get a multiyear offer with a starting salary much higher than his qualifying offer, accepting the QO and reaching unrestricted free agency in 2023 may be DiVincenzo’s best option. Presumably, that’s why his camp reportedly wasn’t thrilled that he was still coming off the bench at the end of the season.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,869,012.

Of course, it’s very possible neither Dort nor Tate will even become a free agent this summer, since their contracts both include team options for 2022/23.

The Thunder could decide to turn down Dort’s minimum-salary option for next season in order to make him a restricted free agent this year instead of an unrestricted free agent next year, but there’s no guarantee they’ll go that route. If they do, his QO would be worth $4.87MM instead of $2.22MM.

Meanwhile, there’s no incentive for the Rockets to decline Tate’s option, since he’ll still be eligible for restricted free agency in 2023, so the amount of his potential qualifying offer this summer will be rendered moot.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, Hornets wing Cody Martin (1,866 minutes), Clippers swingman Amir Coffey (30 starts), and Trail Blazers forward CJ Elleby (28 starts) are a few who were in the ballpark of the starter criteria, but none got there. Martin, Coffey, Elleby, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

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Hoops Rumors’ 2021/22 NBA Award Picks

April 15th, 2022 at 7:00am CST by Hoops Rumors

No Hoops Rumors writers are among the 100 media members who voted on the NBA’s award winners in 2022, but we still have some thoughts on which players are most deserving of hardware for their performances this season.

Here are our choices for the six major awards:

Rory Maher

There are plenty of statistics that indicate Jokic was the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, but these are the most convincing, in my opinion: Denver was +19.5 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the court vs. off (compared to +11.3 for Joel Embiid and +10.8 for Giannis Antetokounmpo), per Cleaning the Glass. And despite missing their second- and third-best players, the Nuggets had a .622 winning percentage when Jokic played (a 51-win pace), compared to .250 when he didn’t (a 20.5-win pace).

Mobley and Scottie Barnes were neck-and-neck for Rookie of the Year for me, but I gave Mobley the edge due to his defensive impact.

The Jazz had a 104.5 defensive rating when Gobert was on the court — 1.7 points stingier than Boston’s league-leading mark — and he led the league in rebounding, was third in blocks, and opponents shot significantly worse than expected when he was defending them.

Bane was a solid rotation player as a rookie and a borderline All-Star as a sophomore, nearly doubling his scoring average (9.2 PPG to 18.2 PPG) while maintaining fantastic efficiency for a 56-win Grizzlies squad (the team was just 3-3 without him). There were many other worthy candidates, including Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland, Jordan Poole, Dejounte Murray, Josh Hart and Jarrett Allen. I didn’t seriously consider Ja Morant because putting a player who was already really good as MIP just felt…wrong.

Herro and Williams look like well-earned shoo-ins for their respective awards, but Taylor Jenkins, J.B. Bickerstaff, Nick Nurse, Erik Spoelstra and Ime Udoka also deserve recognition for leading their teams through a challenging season.

Dana Gauruder

Embiid gets the nod over Jokic and several other worthy candidates because his stellar play saved the Sixers’ season despite the turbulence caused by Ben Simmons. Controversies and awkward situations typically tear teams apart. Embiid carried Philadelphia to a tie for the second-best record in the East – the Sixers were 45-23 when he played and just 6-8 without him.

Cunningham got off to a slow start after spraining his ankle in training camp. He lived up to his status as the top pick after the All-Star break, averaging 21.1 PPG, 6.5 APG and 5.7 RPG. He gets a slight nod over Mobley and Barnes.

The Suns rolled to the best record in the league behind a defense that held opponents to the third-worst field goal percentage. Bridges was usually assigned to the other team’s top offensive threat and quietly shut many of them down.

Herro is the easiest pick among the awards. He averaged 20.7 PPG and 4.0 APG in 32.6 MPG for the team with the best record in the East.

The Warriors had to wait for Klay Thompson to return, then lost Stephen Curry for the last few weeks of the season. Poole filled the scoring void during those absences, averaging 18.5 PPG and 4.0 APG in his third season.

The Grizzlies went from four games over .500 last season to 30 games above .500 this season. Even when Morant was injured late in the season, Memphis continued to win. Jenkins deserves plenty of the credit for the dramatic improvement.

Arthur Hill

  • Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
  • Rookie of the Year: Evan Mobley (Cavaliers)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Smart (Celtics)
  • Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
  • Most Improved Player: Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
  • Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies)

Jokic’s brilliance kept the Nuggets competitive despite playing nearly an entire season without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. His offensive production has exceeded what he did when he won the award last season, and his defense has gotten better as well.

Mobley landed on a perfect team for his skill set and he helped the Cavs become a surprise contender. With a unique mixture of offensive talents and a dominating presence on defense, he excelled amid the pressures of a playoff race.

Smart became a full-time point guard this season and played an important role in Boston’s smothering defense. Smart has been openly campaigning for the award, touting his ability to guard all five positions, and there’s a good chance that voters will listen to his argument.

Herro provides Miami with the league’s most dangerous weapon off the bench, averaging 20.7 PPG and shooting 39.9% from three-point range. He has a chance to win several Sixth Man awards during his career if he remains in his current role.

Morant was already really good, but he has taken his game to an elite level during his third NBA season. He posted career highs in every major category and seemed to provide a few highlight-reel plays every night. His presence will make the Grizzlies a difficult playoff matchup for anyone.

No team has exceeded expectations more than Memphis, which climbed to the No. 2 seed in the West. Jenkins gets contributions from nearly his entire roster and has put together a young, exciting squad that is both successful and fun to watch.

Alex Kirschenbaum

  • Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
  • Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Mikal Bridges (Suns)
  • Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
  • Most Improved Player: Desmond Bane (Grizzlies)
  • Coach of the Year: Monty Williams (Suns)

The MVP race has come down to a contest between three big men for the first time in eons, and you can’t go wrong with any of them. Among them, Giannis Antetokounmpo – the reigning Finals MVP and two-time regular season MVP – is the best player on the best team. While Nikola Jokic boasts some surreal offensive stats, I don’t love giving my vote to players on teams that occupy the bottom halves of their conference’s playoff picture. A team’s place in the standings should matter, though the injuries to Jokic’s two best teammates certainly limited Denver’s ceiling.

Scottie Barnes is a quintessential Masai Ujiri player — a big, switchy, athletic forward who already looks destined to become an impact defender. His game is incredibly fun to watch, and it’s always nice to see players with so much two-way ability get recognized with end-of-year hardware. Between Barnes and Evan Mobley, it has been a heck of a year for big two-way rookies.

Miles Bridges has been a critical and somewhat under-appreciated piece for a stellar 64-18 Suns team that appears to be the heavy title favorite, assuming Chris Paul holds up for four playoff rounds. It’s time for the wings to reclaim this award from the trees! Bridges’s stifling defense has been a crucial cog for one of the best two-way teams in the league. The premiere swingman defender of the 2021/22 season deserves this nod.

Someone on Miami should win something, but that’s not why Herro is the Sixth Man of the Year. He deserves this, as the de facto late game bucket-getter for the top club in an unusually competitive Eastern Conference. His defensive liabilities are the reason he’s a sixth man rather than a starter, but this award isn’t for Starter of the Year, so that’s not really a problem. The 22-year-old third-year guard out of Kentucky, in line for a lucrative contract extension this summer, averaged career-bests of 20.7 PPG (on .447/.399/.868 shooting), 5.0 RPG, 4.0 APG and 0.7 SPG in 66 games for the 53-29 Heat.

I’ve loved to see Desmond Bane’s transformation while with the Grizzlies. It’s always exciting to watch a young non-lottery player (he was the No. 30 pick in 2020 out of TCU) without a traditionally definable role evolve into a crucial part of a playoff contender, and Bane is this year’s model. In his second season, the resilient wing has established himself as the full-time starter for the second seed in the Western Conference. His counting stats have seen a massive uptick from his rookie numbers of 9.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.7 APG in 22.3 MPG during 2020/21. This season, in 76 games (all starts) for a 56-26 Memphis club, Bane averaged 18.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.7 APG and 1.2 SPG. He also posted elite shooting splits of .461/.436/.903.

Yes, Taylor Jenkins is nipping at Monty Williams’ heels for Coach of the Year honors this season. But awarding the hardware to Williams for what he’s done with the Suns in 2021/22 is not a “make-up” award (the NBA equivalent of Al Pacino winning his first-ever Oscar, about two decades too late, for Scent of a Woman). Williams was the head coach for the team that has by far been the best in the NBA this year, not an easy feat to achieve following a disappointing 2021 Finals loss. Over the course of his tenure in Phoenix, Williams has taken a lottery-bound 2019/20 club to the class of the league in just three seasons. Yes, personnel moves had an impact on that, too, but Williams has been able to guide the Suns’ many young guns to maximize their potential, alongside the team’s savvy vets.

Luke Adams

  • Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
  • Rookie of the Year: Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
  • Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Herro (Heat)
  • Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey (Sixers)
  • Coach of the Year: Monty Williams (Suns)

It’s a brutal year to pick an MVP and a Rookie of the Year — the top three contenders for each award would be runaway favorites in most other seasons and any of them would be worthy winners.

I ultimately gravitated toward Jokic and Barnes, in part because they played significantly more than the other top MVP and ROY candidates. When two or three players are producing at such a similar rate, the one who performed at that level for an extra few hundred minutes is inherently providing his team more value over the course of the season. Jokic’s staggering on/off-court numbers and Barnes’ impressive defensive versatility (he guarded every position and often took on the most challenging perimeter assignments) were also among the deciding factors.

Voter fatigue and Utah’s up-and-down season will likely result in a new Defensive Player of the Year this year, but I couldn’t find a compelling reason not to pick Gobert, who remained elite in 2021/22 and whose presence in the paint does more to alter an offensive game plan than a single perimeter stopper can. Despite a relative lack of strong defenders around Gobert, the Jazz played like the NBA’s best defense when he was on the court and were the equivalent of the league’s 21st-best defense when he sat. Bam Adebayo and Draymond Green rivaled Gobert’s impact, but missed a little too much of the season — 26 and 36 games, respectively.

Most Improved Player is nearly as difficult to pick this season as MVP and ROY, with a larger pool of legitimate candidates. I don’t subscribe to the notion that second-year players don’t deserve this award (sure, they’re “supposed to” improve, but the award isn’t Most Unexpectedly Improved Player), so I’ll give the nod to Maxey, who played the most minutes of any Sixer this season and whose huge jumps in both production and efficiency helped the team withstand Simmons’ absence without missing a beat.

Herro averaged over 20 points per game and shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc for the East’s No. 1 seed, while Williams led the West’s No. 1 seed to a 64-win season (and an incredible +33.4 net rating in “clutch” situations) despite missing Paul for a few weeks in the second half. Herro and Williams are betting favorites for their respective awards for good reason.

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Poll: Friday’s Play-In Games

April 14th, 2022 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

Through four games, there have been no upsets in the NBA’s 2022 play-in tournament. Both No. 7 seeds won on Tuesday and both No. 9 seeds were victorious on Wednesday, setting up a pair of No. 8 vs. No. 9 showdowns on Friday.

In the East, it’ll be the No. 9 Hawks visiting the No. 8 Cavaliers, and for the first time in this year’s play-in tournament, the road team will enter the game as the betting favorite. The Hawks are currently favored by 2.5 points on BetOnline.ag.

Although the Hawks finished the season a game behind the Cavaliers in the standings, Atlanta was clearly the better team in the second half. While the Hawks finished the season on a 26-14 run, the Cavs struggled to hold their spot in the Eastern Conference standings after a hot start and went 9-17 down the stretch. The two teams’ play-in results so far reflect that second-half momentum — Cleveland never led against Brooklyn on Tuesday, while Atlanta controlled Wednesday’s game against Charlotte for nearly the entire night.

Cleveland’s home-court advantage will be a boon. And if Jarrett Allen is able to return from his finger injury while John Collins‘ own finger and foot injuries keep him sidelined, the Cavs should have an advantage in the frontcourt. But there’s a real possibility that after holding a top-six spot for much of the season, Cleveland could miss the playoffs altogether.

[Note: The following section on the Western play-in game was written before word broke that Paul George will miss the game due to a positive COVID-19 test.]

In the West, the No. 8 Clippers will host the No. 9 Pelicans, with L.A. listed as a four-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag.

The Clippers finished the year six games ahead of the Pelicans in the standings, but those end-of-season records are somewhat misleading. Since November 17, New Orleans has actually been better (34-32) than Los Angeles (33-35), and the Pelicans have taken another step forward since acquiring CJ McCollum at the trade deadline.

Of course, that’s not to say that the Clippers were spiraling when the regular season ended — they’d just gotten Paul George and Norman Powell back in their lineup following lengthy injury absences and won their last five games of the year before losing a tight one in Minnesota on Tuesday.

Friday’s do-or-die late game would be can’t-miss TV if injured forwards Kawhi Leonard (ACL) and Zion Williamson (foot) were available, but even without those stars on the court, these are two talented, well-coached teams who each look capable of securing the No. 8 spot in the West.

We want to know what you think. Which teams will claim the final two playoff spots on Friday, and which two clubs are headed home?

Vote in our poll before Friday night, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

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Key 2022 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

April 13th, 2022 at 2:17pm CST by Luke Adams

With the 2021/22 NBA regular season in the books, 10 teams have shifted their focus to the offseason and others will soon follow suit.

That means it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the ’21/22 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months.

Here’s a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines for the next few months, right up until training camps open for the 2022/23 season:

April 18

  • NBA conducts random tiebreakers for lottery and draft positioning (link).

April 24

  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

May 16-22

  • NBA draft combine.

May 17

  • NBA draft lottery.

June 1

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59pm CT).

June 2

  • NBA Finals begin.

June 13

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00pm CT).

June 19

  • Latest possible end date for NBA Finals.

June 23

  • NBA draft day.

June 29

  • Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options (certain contracts will require earlier decisions).
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

June 30

July 1

  • Official start of the 2022/23 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.
  • Teams can begin exercising the third- or fourth-year team options for 2023/24 on rookie scale contracts.

July 6

  • Moratorium period ends (11:01am CT)
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades (11:01am CT).
  • The two-day period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins.

July 7-17

  • Las Vegas Summer League.

July 13

  • Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

August 31

  • Last day for teams to waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2022/23 salaries.

September 5

  • Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned second-round picks; those players become free agents on September 6 if not tendered.

Late September (specific dates TBA)

  • Training camps open.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and NBA.com were used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Wednesday’s Play-In Games

April 13th, 2022 at 7:22am CST by Luke Adams

There were no major surprises in Tuesday’s NBA play-in games. The favorites in those two matchups, the No. 7 Nets and the No. 7 Timberwolves, picked up home victories to secure the No. 7 seeds in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference, respectively. Brooklyn will face Boston in the first round of the playoffs, while Minnesota will take on Memphis.

Having lost on Tuesday, the No. 8 Cavaliers and No. 8 Clippers are now preparing to host play-in games on Friday to decide the No. 8 seed in each conference. Their opponents will be determined in a pair of Wednesday play-in contests.

First up, in the East, is a meeting of Southeast rivals, as the No. 10 Hornets visit the No. 9 Hawks.

Both teams finished the season strong — after a tough 17-25 start, Atlanta went 26-14 the rest of the way to secure a play-in berth. The Hornets, meanwhile, lost 13 of 17 games during an extended slump from January to March, but bounced back to win 11 of their last 15 en route to a play-in spot.

The Hawks and Hornets will each be missing a key player, as big man John Collins and forward Gordon Hayward have been ruled out due to injuries. But star point guards Trae Young and LaMelo Ball are still surrounded by strong supporting casts, with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari playing major roles for Atlanta, while Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Kelly Oubre, and Montrezl Harrell complement Ball for Charlotte.

Both Southeast clubs paired top-10 offenses (No. 2 for Atlanta and No. 8 for Charlotte) with bottom-10 defenses (No. 22 for Charlotte and No. 26 for Atlanta) and finished in the middle of the pack in net rating (No. 14 for Atlanta and No. 16 for Charlotte). The Hawks’ home-court advantage helps make them a five-point favorite, according to BetOnline.ag.

Over in the West, the No. 9 Pelicans will host the No. 10 Spurs in Wednesday’s late game.

The Pelicans – a five-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag – generated more buzz than the Spurs down the stretch following a splashy trade deadline that saw them acquire star guard CJ McCollum. The longtime Blazer joined former All-Star Brandon Ingram, standout rookie Herbert Jones, double-double machine Jonas Valanciunas, and center-turned-forward Jaxson Hayes in what has become a formidable starting five. That group has posted a +8.2 net rating in 142 minutes.

The Spurs, meanwhile, were overlooked and viewed as a probable lottery team for much of the season, but they took advantage of the Trail Blazers’ decision to tank and the Lakers’ and Kings’ inability to win games consistently and claimed the West’s final play-in spot.

At 34-48, the Spurs are far from a juggernaut and aren’t loaded with star power, but All-Star guard Dejounte Murray, third-year forward Keldon Johnson, and center Jakob Poeltl had strong seasons, and the club’s rotation is filled out by useful role players like Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson, and Tre Jones.

Those looking for a reason to pick a San Antonio upset should note that the team actually had a better record on the road (18-23) than at home (16-25) this season, and registered a better net rating (+0.2) than the Pelicans (-0.8).

We want to know what you think. Will the favorites win again in Wednesday’s play-in games or will we get at least one upset tonight? Which teams will stay alive and which will head home for the season?

Make your picks in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in on tonight’s play-in matchups!

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Revisiting 2021/22 NBA Over/Under Predictions

April 12th, 2022 at 7:30am CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2021/22 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Nets (55.5 wins) to the Magic (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the fifth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three years, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record. Did that success carry over to ’21/22? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 55.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Under 51.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
  • Boston Celtics (Over 46.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
  • New York Knicks (Over 42.5 wins): ❌ (37-45)
  • Toronto Raptors (Under 36.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 54.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
  • Indiana Pacers (Under 42.5 wins): ✅ (25-57)
  • Chicago Bulls (Over 42.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 26.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
  • Detroit Pistons (Under 25.5 wins): ✅ (23-59)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (Under 48.5 wins): ❌ (53-29)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (43-39)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (43-39)
  • Washington Wizards (Over 34.5 wins): ✅ (35-47)
  • Orlando Magic (Under 22.5 wins): ✅ (22-60)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on the Nets and the Raptors resulted in a sub-.500 record for our voters in the Atlantic division, despite a narrow win on the Sixers under.

The results were better in the Central and Southeast, where most of the misses were only off by a few games. The one big misstep in those two divisions was on the Cavaliers, who exceeded their projected win total by more than any other team in the East.

Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Utah Jazz (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
  • Denver Nuggets (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (27-55)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 34.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 23.5 wins): ❌ (24-58)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (33-49)
  • Phoenix Suns (Over 51.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)
  • Golden State Warriors (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (53-29)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Over 43.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
  • Sacramento Kings (Under 36.5 wins): ✅ (30-52)

Southwest:

  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (52-30)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (Over 41.5 wins): ✅ (56-26)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Under 39.5 wins): ✅ (36-46)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Over 29.5 wins): ✅ (34-48)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 26.5 wins): ✅ (20-62)

Western Conference record: 8-7

In 2020/21, our voters went 5-0 in the Northwest by picking the teams expected to be above .500 to go over their projected win totals and the sub-.500 teams to go under. The same approach this season resulted in an 0-5 mark in the division, with the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves representing the Northwest’s biggest misses.

In the Pacific, injuries played a part in the Lakers and Clippers falling short of beating their projected win totals, but even a fully healthy Lakers team likely wouldn’t have won 53-plus games.

We did well with the non-L.A. teams in the Pacific and crushed the Southwest, where all five teams met our voters’ expectations (whether over or under) by at least three games. That 5-0 Southwest record helped secure an overall winning record this season.

Overall record: 16-14

For the second season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s all the more impressive given how many teams were affected by injuries, not to mention the way rosters were turned upside down in December and January due to COVID-19 outbreaks across the NBA.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Poll: Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Games

April 11th, 2022 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

A year ago, the NBA scheduled its first two Eastern Conference play-in games for the Tuesday after the regular season ended, with both the Western Conference games taking place on the Wednesday.

The league has tweaked that schedule this time around — Tuesday’s slate of games will feature one from each conference, with the Nos. 7 and 8 teams all in action. The Nos. 9 and 10 teams in both conferences will play on Wednesday.

[RELATED: NBA’s Play-In Field, Top-Six Playoff Seeds Set]

That means we’ll know by the end of the night on Tuesday which two teams will claim the No. 7 playoff seeds, securing first-round matchups against the Celtics in the East and the Grizzlies in the West.

The Nets are eight-point favorites over the Cavaliers in the first of Tuesday’s play-in games, according to BetOnline.ag, and for good reason. The game will be played in Brooklyn, where Kyrie Irving is now eligible to play despite not having received a COVID-19 vaccine. And after a strong start to the season, Cleveland didn’t play well down the stretch, posting a 9-16 record since the All-Star break.

Injuries will also be a factor in this game. Irving and Kevin Durant are both healthy, which is more than can be said about the Cavs’ All-Stars. While Darius Garland is good to go, center Jarrett Allen continues to battle a fractured finger and there’s pessimism he’ll be available on Tuesday. Ben Simmons and Joe Harris will be sidelined for Brooklyn, but the Nets have gotten used to playing without those guys — Harris hasn’t played since mid-November and Simmons has yet to make his Nets debut.

Over in the West, the Timberwolves will host the Clippers after finishing four games ahead of them during the regular season. Still, BetOnline.ag only lists Minnesota as a three-point favorite for the time being.

The Clippers are getting healthy at the right time, which is one reason why they’re viewed as a candidate to make a little noise in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard continues to recover from his ACL surgery, but Paul George has been back in the lineup since late March and Norman Powell returned last week.

Winning in Minnesota will be a tall order for L.A. though. The Wolves have been one of the NBA’s most dangerous teams since the new year, having gone 30-16 following a 16-20 start to the season. The trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has been tough to stop on offense, while Patrick Beverley and Jarred Vanderbilt helped anchor an above-average defense.

We want to know what you think. Which teams will win Tuesday’s play-in games and become this season’s No. 7 seeds?

Vote in our poll below, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Checking In On NBA’s 2022 Lottery Standings, Projected Draft Order

April 11th, 2022 at 7:56am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021/22 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for June 23 has not yet been set.

A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 60 picks in the 2021 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.

With the help of data from Tankathon and our own reverse standings, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
HOU 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
ORL 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
OKC 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
IND 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
POR 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
SAC 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
LAL 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
SAS* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
WAS 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
NOP* 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
NYK 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
CHA* 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
ATL* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

(* Asterisks denote play-in teams)

Because the Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, assuming neither one makes the playoffs. So their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Hawks were to win the random tiebreaker, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could (or will) lose their picks. The Lakers‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 (99.6%) or the Grizzlies if it falls outside the top 10.

The Pelicans‘ own pick is top-four protected and will go to the Trail Blazers if it falls any later in the lottery (90.6%). If New Orleans makes the playoffs, their first-rounder will go to the Hornets.

The play-in factor

The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:

  • San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
  • Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
  • Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
  • Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)

Based on their 46-36 record, the Timberwolves could end up with a pick as low as No. 19 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

The Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, while the Cavaliers and Nets were each 44-38, so if both teams in either of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

If, for example, Brooklyn makes the playoffs and Cleveland doesn’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary, since the Cavs would be in the lottery and the Nets wouldn’t.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

  1. Atlanta Hawks / Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
  2. Brooklyn Nets / Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Nets’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers if it lands outside of the top 14.
  3. Chicago Bulls / Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs.
  4. Denver Nuggets / Toronto Raptors (48-34)
    • Note: The Raptors’ pick will be sent to the Spurs.
  5. Boston Celtics / Milwaukee Bucks / Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
    • Note: The Celtics’ pick will be sent to the Spurs; the Sixers’ pick will be sent to the Nets (unless Brooklyn exercises its option to defer the pick until 2023).
  6. Miami Heat / Golden State Warriors (53-29)

These tiebreakers will be conducted by the NBA next Monday (April 18).

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2022 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

  • Pelicans or Grizzlies acquiring Lakers‘ pick (unprotected).
    • This pick will almost certainly end up in the top 10 (most likely at No. 8 or No. 9) and go to the Pelicans. There’s only a 0.4% chance it will land at No. 11 and No. 12 and be sent to Memphis instead.
  • Thunder acquiring Clippers‘ pick (unprotected).
    • If the Clippers secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be either No. 15 or No. 16. If the Clippers don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick (unprotected).
    • If the Nets secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will land in the 16-18 range. If the Nets don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Spurs acquiring Raptors‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will land at either No. 20 or No. 21, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (top-six protected).
    • This pick will be No. 22.
  • Spurs acquiring Celtics‘ pick (top-four protected).
    • This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Thunder acquiring Suns‘ pick (top-12 protected).
    • This pick will be No. 30.

Picks that won’t change hands:

  • Thunder acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-7, falling in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Thunder their 2023 first-round pick (top-18 protected).
  • Hawks acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-8, falling in its protected range. The Thunder will instead send their own 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to Atlanta and their obligation to the Hawks will be extinguished.
  • Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-10, falling in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
  • Hawks acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-18 protected).
    • Even if the Hornets earn a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be between 15-18, falling in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Hawks their 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected).
  • Rockets acquiring Heat‘s pick (unprotected swap)
    • The Rockets have the ability to swap their own pick or the Nets’ pick for the Heat’s pick, but the Heat’s pick will be the lowest of the bunch (either No. 27 or No. 28, depending on the tiebreaker results), so Miami will keep it and their obligation to the Rockets will be extinguished.

Picks that might change hands:

  • Trail Blazers or Hornets acquiring Pelicans‘ pick (various protections).
    • If the Pelicans secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, their pick would be either No. 15 or No. 16 and would be sent to the Hornets. If the Pelicans miss the playoffs, they could still keep their pick if it moves into the top four in the lottery, but the odds of that wouldn’t be better than 13.9%. The Trail Blazers will receive it if it lands in the 5-14 range.
    • If the Trail Blazers don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans would owe Portland the Bucks’ 2025 first-round pick.
    • If the Hornets don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans will instead send their own 2022 and 2024 second-round picks to Charlotte and their obligation to the Hornets will be extinguished.
  • Pacers acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • The Cavaliers must secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament in order for the Pacers to receive this pick. If Cleveland makes the playoffs, the pick will land somewhere in the 16-18 range.
  • Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (unprotected)
    • This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results. The Nets will have the option to let the Sixers keep it and instead acquire Philadelphia’s unprotected 2023 first-round pick.
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