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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

May 20th, 2022 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

No team had a more disappointing 2021/22 season than the Lakers, who entered the year as the favorites to come out of the Western Conference. After an underwhelming but respectable 21-19 start, the Lakers improbably won just 10 of their next 40 games, missing out on not just the playoffs but the play-in tournament.

Injuries to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis played a part in the Lakers’ struggles, but it’s not like the team was dominant when James, Davis, and Russell Westbrook were all available. A lack of reliable role players and an inability to maximize Westbrook’s strengths contributed to a letdown of a season in Los Angeles, and head coach Frank Vogel became the fall guy, losing his job at the end of the regular season.

While the Lakers would presumably like to make significant roster changes this offseason, reshaping the roster around James and Davis, their ability to do so will be limited, since they project to be a taxpaying team even with just a handful of players under contract, and don’t have any picks in this year’s draft.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan:

A year after trading away Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and their first-round pick for Westbrook, the Lakers would be thrilled to pull off the inverse of that deal, sending out Westbrook’s expiring contract for a handful of less expensive rotation players and a draft pick.

Unfortunately, Westbrook’s stock has cratered in the last 12 months and it’s unlikely the Lakers will be able to get anything decent back for him unless they’re willing to include their 2027 and/or 2029 first-round picks (the only two they can currently move, due to the Stepien Rule) or unless they’re open to taking on a significant chunk of unwanted multiyear salary.

With the Lakers focused on maximizing their title window for as long as the 37-year-old James is still playing at an All-NBA level, it’s not out of the question that they’d further mortgage their future by attaching a couple first-rounders to Westbrook to get immediate help.

However, the front office has projected patience in recent months, and the team has reportedly asked its head coaching candidates how they would use the 33-year-old point guard. That’s a sign that the Lakers are leaning toward hanging onto Westbrook – at least for now – and perhaps revisiting a trade at the 2023 deadline or letting his $47MM+ salary come off the cap next summer.

If James, Davis, and Westbrook are staying, the Lakers will have about $130MM on their books for just three players, eliminating any possibility of cap space and almost certainly preventing the club from using its full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Even just filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players would take team salary above the projected luxury tax line.

That leaves a small handful of assets for the Lakers to use for potential roster upgrades. A trade package that includes Talen Horton-Tucker and/or Kendrick Nunn is one option. Neither player’s value is especially high right now, but Horton-Tucker is still young enough (21) to have some upside and Nunn, whose $5.25MM expiring contract isn’t onerous, is a bounce-back candidate if he’s healthy. Adding a future first-round pick to that duo would further sweeten the pot.

It’s also worth noting that the Lakers still have about $4.4MM available to send out in trades before the 2022/23 league year begins in July. That money could be used to grease the wheels on a Horton-Tucker/Nunn deal or to trade back into the second round of the draft.

With the full mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, and sign-and-trade acquisitions likely off the table for the Lakers due to their proximity to the tax line, they’ll probably be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception and minimum-salary contracts in free agency.

Last year’s free agent haul showed the dangers of leaning on those limited assets — the team used its taxpayer MLE on Nunn, who didn’t play a single game due to a leg injury, and many of its minimum-salary signings were busts, including DeAndre Jordan, Trevor Ariza, and Kent Bazemore.

However, minimum-salary additions like Malik Monk, Avery Bradley, and Stanley Johnson worked out well, as did the signing of undrafted rookie Austin Reaves. It’ll be easier said than done, but the front office will be looking to improve its hit rate on its low-cost signings in 2022/23, finding more Monks and fewer Jordans.

The Lakers’ head coaching search also shouldn’t be overlooked as one of the most important decisions of the team’s offseason. Identifying a candidate who is capable of managing superstar personalities, getting more out of Westbrook, handling the Los Angeles spotlight, and guiding the team back to contention will be a challenge.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • LeBron James (veteran)
  • Russell Westbrook (veteran) 2

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Even if the Lakers do find a taker for Westbrook, who is a lock to pick up his option, they’ll likely have to take back upwards of $40MM in salary to make the deal work financially — dumping his $47MM+ contract onto another team without taking much, or any, salary back just isn’t realistic.

As a result, it’s a pretty safe bet that the Lakers will once again find themselves above the luxury tax line in 2022/23. Right now, that tax line projects to be set at $149MM.

Due to their cap situation and their lack of any real Bird rights on their free agents, it’ll be difficult for the Lakers to give any of those veterans much of a raise on their 2021/22 salary. That will be a problem if they want to re-sign Monk — they’ll be limited to an offer worth about $2.5MM unless they use their taxpayer mid-level exception on him.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 4
  • Trade exception: $2,692,991
  • Trade exception: $1,669,178

Footnotes

  1. Gabriel’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  2. Westbrook would only be eligible if his option is exercised, which is expected.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 18th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings‘ 2021/22 season got off to a rough start and didn’t get any better from there. Sacramento became the first and only team to make an in-season coaching change in ’21/22, and Alvin Gentry‘s winning percentage (.369) after replacing Luke Walton was barely an improvement on Walton’s mark (.353).

The Kings made a major splash at the trade deadline when they sent 2020 first-round pick Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana in a six-player deal that landed two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento, and there was some brief hope that the acquisition of Sabonis could help push the team into play-in territory during the home stretch of the season.

However, the Kings continued to lose games after the trade and ultimately shut down Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, neither of whom played in the final three weeks of the season due to injuries. The end result? Sacramento is now the holder of an ignominious NBA record, having missed the playoffs for a 16th consecutive season.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan:

The Kings will be laser-focused on ending their postseason drought in 2022/23 and general manager Monte McNair will certainly be feeling some pressure to make it happen, since he’s reportedly entering the final year of his contract.

Sacramento’s desire to be a playoff team raises some interesting questions about the No. 4 overall pick in the draft. With Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, and Paolo Banchero likely to come off the board in the top three, would the Kings target an older prospect who is considered more NBA-ready, such as forward Keegan Murray? Are they interested in rolling the dice on guard Jaden Ivey to create an electric offensive backcourt, even if it creates more questions about how their defense would hold up? Would they be willing to put that fourth overall pick in a trade for an impact veteran?

It’s a tricky spot for McNair. There’s certainly no guarantee that the Kings will be able to add a franchise player at No. 4, but it’s still such a valuable asset that they’d want to acquire a legitimate star if they were to trade it. Will a player of that caliber be out there this summer? If not, could the Kings consider a deal where they move down a few spots in the draft and acquire a starter-caliber veteran rather than a potential All-Star?

Whether they keep it or trade it, that No. 4 pick will be the Kings’ best bet to acquire impact talent, since they won’t have cap room available to make waves in free agency. Re-signing restricted free agent Donte DiVincenzo and using their mid-level exception on a rotation player could be the extent of Sacramento’s free agent moves.

If they do hang onto their lottery pick, there are some other ways the Kings could get involved in trade discussions.

Center Richaun Holmes looks like the most obvious trade chip on the roster — the four-year, $46.5MM contract he signed last summer seemed pretty team-friendly at the time, but Holmes struggled to find his niche following the acquisition of Sabonis and his stock has dipped a little over the last year. Still, he’s in his prime at age 28 and he should draw interest from teams in need of help at center.

The Kings will also have to decide whether they consider forward Harrison Barnes part of their long-term future. Barnes is a solid – but not spectacular – scorer and defender who is entering a contract year. His expiring $18.4MM deal would have positive value, but he’s also the sort of player who should fit well alongside Fox and Sabonis, so a possible contract extension shouldn’t be ruled out either.

Other non-core pieces on expiring contracts include Justin Holiday, Terence Davis, Maurice Harkless, and Alex Len. While there shouldn’t be any urgency to move any of those four, I imagine the Kings would be open to discussing any of them if rival teams inquire.

Of course, Sacramento has already made one of its biggest offseason decisions, announcing earlier this month that Warriors assistant Mike Brown will be the team’s next head coach. The Kings wanted a coach who had experience turning a lottery team into a playoff club. Brown technically fits that bill, having done so in Cleveland, but he had plenty of help from LeBron James in that instance — he’ll face a more significant challenge trying to repeat that feat in Sacramento without one of the NBA’s all-time greats on his roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($7,901,280)
  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 49 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,901,280

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Harrison Barnes (veteran)
  • Justin Holiday (veteran)
  • Domantas Sabonis (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Accounting for their guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for their first-round pick, the Kings will have about $110MM on their books, putting them in position to be an over-the-cap team. They should be able to re-sign DiVincenzo to a fair contract and use their full $10MM+ mid-level exception without going into luxury-tax territory, if they so choose.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
  • Trade exception: $4,023,600
  • Trade exception: $1,630,934

Footnotes

  1. Metu’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
  2. The cap hold for Brewer remain on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2022 NBA Draft Picks By Team

May 18th, 2022 at 8:40am CST by Luke Adams

Not only did the Thunder move up in Tuesday’s draft lottery to claim this year’s No. 2 overall pick, but they’re also one of just three teams with four picks in the 2022 draft. No team’s 2022 selections are more valuable than Oklahoma City’s — in addition to the second overall pick, the Thunder control No. 12, No. 30, and No. 34.

The Spurs and Timberwolves also each own four 2022 draft picks, with San Antonio controlling three first-rounders and No. 38, while Minnesota has No. 19 and three second-rounders.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, four clubs don’t currently own any 2022 draft picks. The Lakers, Suns, and Jazz are three of those teams, and either the Sixers or the Nets will be the fourth, depending on whether Brooklyn decides to acquire Philadelphia’s first-rounder or defer it to 2023.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2022 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 58 selections by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (4): 2, 12, 30, 34
  • San Antonio Spurs (4): 9, 20, 25, 38
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (4): 19, 40, 48, 50
  • Orlando Magic (3): 1, 32, 35
  • Sacramento Kings (3): 4, 37, 49
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 6, 31, 58
  • Portland Trail Blazers (3): 7, 36, 57
  • New Orleans Pelicans (3): 8, 41, 52
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 13, 15, 45
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (3): 14, 39, 56
  • Memphis Grizzlies (3): 22, 29, 47
  • Golden State Warriors (3): 28, 51, 55

Teams with two picks:

  • Houston Rockets: 3, 17
  • Detroit Pistons: 5, 46
  • Washington Wizards: 10, 54
  • New York Knicks: 11, 42
  • Atlanta Hawks: 16, 44

Teams with one pick:

  • Chicago Bulls: 18
  • Denver Nuggets: 21
  • Philadelphia 76ers: 23
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 24
  • Dallas Mavericks: 26
  • Miami Heat: 27
  • Toronto Raptors: 33
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 43
  • Boston Celtics: 53

Teams with no picks:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Utah Jazz
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Full 2022 NBA Draft Order

May 17th, 2022 at 8:40pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2022 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on June 23, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2022 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Orlando Magic
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. Houston Rockets
  4. Sacramento Kings
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. Indiana Pacers
  7. Portland Trail Blazers
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers
  15. Charlotte Hornets (from Pelicans)
  16. Atlanta Hawks
  17. Houston Rockets (from Nets)
  18. Chicago Bulls
  19. Minnesota Timberwolves
  20. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  21. Denver Nuggets
  22. Memphis Grizzlies (from Jazz)
  23. Philadelphia 76ers
  24. Milwaukee Bucks
  25. San Antonio Spurs (from Celtics)
  26. Houston Rockets (from Mavericks)
  27. Miami Heat
  28. Golden State Warriors
  29. Memphis Grizzlies
  30. Denver Nuggets (from Suns via Thunder)

Second Round:

  1. Indiana Pacers (from Rockets)
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Toronto Raptors (from Pistons)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Los Angeles Lakers (from Pacers via Magic)
  6. Detroit Pistons (from Trail Blazers)
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. San Antonio Spurs (from Lakers)
  9. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Spurs)
  10. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Wizards)
  11. New Orleans Pelicans
  12. New York Knicks
  13. Los Angeles Clippers
  14. Atlanta Hawks
  15. Charlotte Hornets
  16. Portland Trail Blazers (from Nets via Pistons)
  17. Memphis Grizzlies (from Cavaliers)
  18. Minnesota Timberwolves
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Bulls via Kings)
  20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nuggets)
  21. Golden State Warriors (from Raptors)
  22. New Orleans Pelicans (from Jazz)
  23. Boston Celtics
  24. Milwaukee Bucks
  25. Miami Heat (from Sixers)
  26. Washington Wizards (from Mavericks)
  27. Golden State Warriors
  28. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Heat)
  29. Portland Trail Blazers (from Grizzlies)
  30. Indiana Pacers (from Suns)
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2022 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 17th, 2022 at 6:47am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of four prospects generally considered by experts to be a level above the rest of the class: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2022 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Detroit Pistons
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Indiana Pacers
  6. Portland Trail Blazers
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will receive this pick if it falls to No. 11 or No. 12.
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Magic, Pistons, and Thunder have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

Typically, only the top three teams in the lottery standings would have a 14.0% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, but the Thunder join that group by virtue of holding two lottery picks — there’s a 12.5% chance that their own pick will move up to No. 1 and a 1.5% chance the Clippers’ pick, which they also control, will be No. 1.

From there, the Pacers (10.5%), Trail Blazers (9.0%), Kings (7.5%), and Pelicans (6.0%) have the best odds to receive the first overall pick.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Clippers and Lakers are the only non-playoff teams that have traded away their lottery picks this year, and neither team put protections on its traded first-rounder.

The Thunder will receive the Clippers’ pick, as detailed above.

The Lakers’ pick technically still remains up for grabs, depending on the lottery results, due to a trade between New Orleans and Memphis. Here are the details on that deal:

Pelicans/Grizzlies

The Pelicans will acquire the Lakers’ pick if it lands in the top 10, while the Grizzlies will receive it if it ends up at No. 11 or 12.

Since the Lakers finished eighth in the lottery standings, there’s approximately a 99.5% chance that New Orleans will hang onto the pick. At least three teams in the 9-14 range would have to jump into the top four in order for Memphis to receive it.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • On stage: Rafael Stone (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  2. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  3. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Richard Hamilton (former Pistons player)
    • Lottery room: George David (assistant GM)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / special assistant to GM)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  5. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Kelly Krauskopf (assistant GM)
    • Lottery room: Chad Buchanan (general manager)
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Damian Lillard
    • Lottery room: Dewayne Hankins (president of business operations)
  7. Sacramento Kings

  8. New Orleans Pelicans

    • On stage: Swin Cash-Canal (VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
  9. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: David Robinson (former Spurs player / strategic partner)
    • Lottery room: Niraj Mulji (director of basketball strategy)
  10. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (president of basketball operations / general manager)
  11. New York Knicks
    • On stage: William Wesley (executive VP / senior basketball advisor)
    • Lottery room: Brock Aller (VP of basketball and strategic planning)
  12. Charlotte Hornets
  13. Cleveland Cavaliers

    • On stage: Anderson Varejao (former Cavaliers player / team ambassador)
    • Lottery room: Jon Nichols (VP of basketball strategy and personnel)

Lottery Format:

This will be the fourth year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results since the new format was implemented have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

A year ago, the results were more by-the-numbers. However, the seventh spot in the lottery standings was lucky again, this time for the Raptors, who moved up to No. 4 and grabbed eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

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Poll: Golden State Warriors Vs. Dallas Mavericks

May 16th, 2022 at 9:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Warriors took down the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed, the Grizzlies. Then the Mavericks eliminated the top-seeded Suns with a stunning Game 7 blowout on Phoenix’s home floor.

What’s left on that side of the playoff bracket is an enticing matchup featuring two of the game’s biggest stars, Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic.

Curry and Doncic fought off late-season injuries to lead their respective teams to this point. Golden State, with its championship pedigree, now takes over the role as the favorite to reach the Finals and capture the title. But anyone who watch Dallas’ beatdown of the Suns on Sunday knows that Jason Kidd’s club shouldn’t be underestimated.

Curry is averaging 26.9 PPG and 5.6 APG in the postseason, though his 3-point shooting has been spotty (35.9%). Splash Brother partner Klay Thompson is averaging 20.4 PPG, including a 30-point outburst in the clincher against Memphis. Jordan Poole‘s breakout season has seeped into the playoffs (19.3 PPG, 4.8 APG).

Andrew Wiggins has added solid production and Draymond Green has been Golden State’s biggest play-maker (6.6 APG) while anchoring the defense, as usual. Kevon Looney delivered a huge 22-rebound, five-assist outing in Game 6 of the conference semifinals. Gary Payton and Andre Iguodala may not be able to go in the series, so Otto Porter Jr., Jonathan Kuminga and Damion Lee will need to deliver quality minutes.

The Mavericks are generating their offense from smaller lineups. Doncic (31.5 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 6.6 APG) solidified his superstar status by putting his team on his back and vanquishing the Suns. Soon-to-be free agent Jalen Brunson (22.9 PPG) has pumped up his price tag and midseason acquisition Spencer Dinwiddie (13.2 PPG) has resurrected his career with Dallas.

Forwards Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock have been defensive stalwarts, while Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber have divvied up the minutes in the middle. Davis Bertans could be an X-factor off the bench.

The chess match between Kidd and Steve Kerr will be fascinating. Dallas will want to slow things down, while Golden State will look to get out in transition. There will be plenty of switching and defensive wrinkles drawn up in an effort to neutralize each other high-scoring backcourts.

So now it’s your turn to weigh in:

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

May 16th, 2022 at 7:16am CST by Luke Adams

After two consecutive first-round playoff losses, the Trail Blazers entered the 2021/22 season hoping that a new head coach (Chauncey Billups), a new frontcourt addition (Larry Nance Jr.), and a full season of newly re-signed swingman Norman Powell would raise their ceiling.

However, after a 10-8 start, Portland lost 14 of its next 17 games, and the last of those 17 games was the final one of Damian Lillard‘s season, as he underwent surgery to address an abdominal injury that had bothered him for years.

With their playoff hopes on life support, the Blazers changed course. New general manager Joe Cronin – who replaced president of basketball operations Neil Olshey in December following an investigation into Olshey’s workplace conduct – was given the green light to overhaul the roster prior to the trade deadline. Cronin didn’t hold back, sending Powell and Robert Covington to the Clippers and Nance and CJ McCollum to New Orleans for future assets and cap flexibility.

Jusuf Nurkic (foot), Nassir Little (shoulder), and Anfernee Simons (knee) joined Lillard on the sidelines as Portland went into tank mode in the second half of the season. Following the All-Star break, the Blazers were 2-21 with an unfathomably bad -21.3 net rating, finishing with the NBA’s sixth-worst record and putting themselves in position to draft a top prospect this June.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:

When Cronin blew up the Blazers’ roster in February, the common refrain coming out of Portland was that the team wanted to quickly retool the roster, perhaps flipping some of its newly-acquired assets before next season in an effort to get back to the playoffs. The goal wasn’t to launch a full-fledged rebuild, but to reshape the roster around players like Lillard, Little, and RFA-to-be Simons.

Avoiding a years-long tank is a noble goal, but it’s unclear whether the Blazers have the assets necessary to complete a fast turnaround. The packages they received in their deadline deals with the Clippers and Pelicans were somewhat underwhelming, especially after New Orleans made the playoffs and prevented Portland from acquiring the Pels’ 2022 first-round pick (it would’ve gone to the Blazers if it landed between Nos. 5 and 14).

The Blazers acquired Josh Hart, a solid two-way contributor, in the McCollum trade, and got Justise Winslow and Keon Johnson in their trade with the Clippers. Those players could help going forward, but they’re complementary parts, not centerpieces. The most valuable draft asset the Blazers got in their two mega-deals was Milwaukee’s top-four protected 2025 first-round pick, which will have limited trade value, given that it’s considered unlikely to be a high selection.

Theoretically, Portland has a path to significant cap room this offseason, but maximizing that space would mean shedding non-guaranteed salaries (like Hart’s), renouncing key cap holds (including Nurkic’s), and forfeiting the $20.8MM trade exception created in the McCollum deal. In other words, any move requiring cap room would force the Blazers to make some serious sacrifices, so the trade-off may not be worth it.

The Blazers’ most logical play this offseason might be to operate over the cap, re-signing Simons and Nurkic, retaining Hart, and waiving Eric Bledsoe‘s mostly non-guaranteed contract in order to create space under the tax line to take advantage of that big trade exception and/or the mid-level exception, targeting wings and strong defensive players with those exceptions.

A five-man group of Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, Hart, and Little probably isn’t a playoff-caliber starting lineup in the West, but it’s a decent starting point for the roster. With a top-10 pick, some cap exceptions, and a willingness to trade future draft assets, Portland is in position to add more talent.

Still, given how much the team is paying Lillard on his current contract and how much new deals for Simons and Nurkic could cost, there won’t be a ton of margin for error, so the Blazers are under some pressure to get this summer’s moves right.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Eric Bledsoe ($15,475,000) 1
  • Josh Hart ($12,960,000) 2
  • Total: $28,435,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($5,932,440)
  • No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 59 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,932,440

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Eric Bledsoe (veteran)
  • Damian Lillard (veteran)
  • Nassir Little (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With just $65MM in guaranteed money on their books for next season, the Blazers could theoretically create upwards of $50MM in cap room if they renounce all their free agents and exceptions, waive-and-stretch Bledsoe, and drop Hart. However, that’s probably not a realistic outcome.

It’s a safe bet that Simons isn’t going anywhere, and Hart’s deal is pretty team-friendly. If we add Simons’ cap hold and Hart’s salary to Portland’s books, that projected cap room dips to about $27MM. And if the team intends to retain Nurkic and its $20MM+ trade exception, that cap room goes away entirely.

The Blazers will have options this offseason, but they’d need a very good, specific reason to give up key assets to go under the cap. Our working assumption is that they’ll be an over-the-cap team unless an opportunity arises that they can’t pass up.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
  • Trade exception: $20,864,198
  • Trade exception: $6,519,792
  • Trade exception: $3,261,480

Footnotes

  1. Bledsoe’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Hart’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 25.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. If the Blazers decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exceptions) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Boston Celtics Vs. Miami Heat

May 15th, 2022 at 6:47pm CST by JD Shaw

The Celtics defeated the Bucks in their second-round series on Sunday, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals for the fourth time in the last six seasons. They’ll play the Heat, who’ve made the conference finals in six of their last 12 seasons.

Boston and Miami have recent postseason history. The teams have met twice in the playoffs over the last decade, both times in the Eastern Conference Finals, with the Heat winning in 2012 and 2020. Both are regarded as strong defensive teams, and either franchise could easily win the championship this season.

Boston had home court advantage against the Bucks, but will start on the road against Miami. The Celtics made an NBA record 22 three-pointers in Game 7 on Sunday, receiving strong contributions from Grant Williams (27 points), Jayson Tatum (23 points) and Jaylen Brown (18 points).

Miami is coming off a series win against Philadelphia. The team caused issues for Trae Young in round one, then proceeded to hold the Sixers to an average of 96 points in the second round. The Heat have been led by Jimmy Butler on both ends — he’s averaging 28.7 points and 2.1 steals per game in the playoffs.

Both Boston and Miami are dealing with injuries to starting players. Celtics center Robert Williams III (left knee soreness) was active for Game 7, but he didn’t see any action. Heat guard Kyle Lowry, meanwhile, is still battling a hamstring injury.

The Celtics will likely continue deploying their switch-heavy defense, while the Heat may wait to see who Boston starts before finalizing matchups. The team could assign Butler and Tucker to Brown and Tatum, for example, but would have to live with Max Strus defending one of Boston’s big men. The Celtics could assign Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart to Butler.

Which team do you think will win this series? Will the Heat advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in the last three seasons, or will the Celtics return to the Finals and compete for an 18th title? Vote in our poll, then take to the comments section below to share your predictions!

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Poll: Phoenix Suns Vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 7

May 13th, 2022 at 12:05pm CST by Luke Adams

The Celtics and Grizzlies will be looking to pick up wins on Friday night in the hopes of sending their respective Conference Semifinals to a seventh and deciding game. But as we await the outcomes of those games, we can already look forward to one Game 7 — the Mavericks‘ home victory over the Suns on Thursday assured that the two teams will play a win-or-go-home contest in Phoenix on Sunday.

It has been an unusual series so far, with none of the first six games decided by fewer than seven points. The Suns have won their three home games by an average margin of 19 points per game, but have lost their three road games by more than 15 points per contest. Those home/road splits bode well for the NBA-best Suns, who earned home court advantage with their 64-18 regular season record and will host Game 7.

Still, they’ll be coming off their worst performance of the series, a 29-point blowout loss in Game 6. In Thursday’s Mavs victory, Luka Doncic reinforced his claim as the best player in this series, putting up 33 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, and four steals while the Suns’ All-Star guards – Devin Booker and Chris Paul – combined for eight turnovers and just seven assists.

As Tim MacMahon of ESPN relays, it was the second game this series in which Paul recorded more turnovers than assists in a game, marking the first time in his career that he has done that more than once in a single postseason.

Suns head coach Monty Williams said after Thursday’s loss that his team didn’t match Dallas’ level of desperation. Starting center Deandre Ayton said Phoenix will have to adjust its intensity level for Game 7.

“It’s got to be a together thing where everybody is on the same page,” Ayton said. “And it wasn’t like that (on Thursday). There were a lot of mistakes. It felt like a regular season game, the amount of mistakes we had today. The turnovers, terrible, unacceptable. It was that type of game where it was just unacceptable, man. Them dudes, they wanted it more.”

The Suns are currently six-point favorites in Game 7, per BetOnline.ag, but if Doncic has another huge game and Booker and Paul aren’t at their best, there’s not a ton of room for error. The Mavs were one of the NBA’s best teams down the stretch – they had a better record than the Suns during the final two months of the regular season – and have shown by forcing a Game 7 that they won’t roll over easily.

What do you think? Will the Suns hang on and advance to the Western Finals for a second consecutive year, or will the Mavs pull off the upset?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions.

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

May 11th, 2022 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Pacers entered the 2021/22 season with playoff aspirations, but some bad luck and tight losses derailed the first half of their season, and a series of injuries contributed to their inability to get back on track.

By the trade deadline, the Pacers were looking ahead to the future and decided to send All-Star center Domantas Sabonis to Sacramento in a six-player deal for potential franchise cornerstone Tyrese Haliburton.

The move was typical of an Indiana team that has historically been reluctant to launch a full-fledged rebuild. As was the case when they traded Paul George to Oklahoma City in 2017 for Sabonis and Victor Oladipo, the Pacers preferred to acquire a promising young player rather than far-away draft picks, in the hopes of accelerating their return to the postseason.

With a top-10 pick in hand and some intriguing talent under contract, it will be interesting to see how much patience the front office is willing to exercise this offseason as the retooling process continues.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:

We know that Haliburton will be part of the future in Indiana, and it’s a safe bet that 2021 first-rounders Chris Duarte and Isaiah Jackson aren’t going anywhere either. Beyond that, there are some unanswered questions.

Myles Turner was viewed as one of the NBA’s top trade candidates early in the 2021/22 season. With Sabonis gone, will Turner stick around or will the Pacers still be willing to discuss him trade talks? If he’s part of the long-term plans, will Indiana be able to extend him this offseason as he prepares to enter a contract year? Would Turner be open to an extension?

Malcolm Brogdon, meanwhile, is under contract for three more seasons, and could theoretically fit alongside Haliburton, since both players can handle the ball or play off it and neither is a defensive liability. However, there has been some speculation that Brogdon could be dealt, especially if the Pacers want to clear some long-term money from their books. He wasn’t trade-eligible during the season after signing an extension, but he will be this summer. Will Indiana look to move him?

When Buddy Hield was included in the Haliburton trade in February, it wasn’t clear whether he was simply thrown in for salary-matching purposes or if the Pacers envisioned him remaining on the roster beyond the season. His performance in Indiana made that an even more interesting question — his 18.2 PPG and .447 FG% were significant steps up from the numbers he was putting up in Sacramento, and he flashed newfound play-making skills (a career-high 4.8 APG).

Hield has two years and $40MM left on his contract, which looks a little more team-friendly than it did three or four months ago. The Pacers should be able to move him without having to attach other assets, but it’s unclear what their intentions are.

Jalen Smith played well for the Pacers after arriving in a deadline deal, but because his 2022/23 rookie scale team option was declined last year, the team can’t offer him a starting salary higher than about $4.7MM, which may not be enough to bring him back.

I also wouldn’t expect Ricky Rubio or T.J. Warren – neither of whom played a game for Indiana this season – to return, but the team’s final unrestricted free agent, Lance Stephenson, is a good candidate for a new deal. He seems to have found a home in Indiana.

Of course, before they have to make any free agent decisions, the Pacers will have a lot riding on the draft lottery results. Their offseason will take a much different shape if they’re picking in the top three or four than it would if they slip to No. 7 or No. 8.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($6,498,600)
  • No. 31 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 60 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $6,498,600

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Goga Bitadze (rookie scale)
  • Buddy Hield (veteran)
  • Myles Turner (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Taking into account their returning players, Brissett’s team option, and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Pacers project to have about $94MM in guaranteed money. That number could fluctuate a little one way or the other, depending on their lottery luck, but it puts the team in position to open up at least $20-25MM in cap space.

Taking that route would mean renouncing most of their free agent cap holds, as well as about $35MM in free agency and trade exceptions, detailed below. So the Pacers would need a good reason to renounce those cap charges and operate under the cap. If they have no specific use for the space, they could simply continue to function as an over-the-cap club, retaining all their exceptions.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 5
  • Trade exception: $10,500,000
  • Trade exception: $7,333,333
  • Trade exception: $2,320,000
  • Trade exception: $420,049

Footnotes

  1. Taylor’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Brissett’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  3. Washington’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 6.
  4. The Pacers can’t offer Smith a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his 2022/23 rookie scale option was declined.
  5. These are projected values. If the Pacers decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exceptions) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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