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Poll: Wednesday’s Play-In Games

April 13th, 2022 at 7:22am CST by Luke Adams

There were no major surprises in Tuesday’s NBA play-in games. The favorites in those two matchups, the No. 7 Nets and the No. 7 Timberwolves, picked up home victories to secure the No. 7 seeds in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference, respectively. Brooklyn will face Boston in the first round of the playoffs, while Minnesota will take on Memphis.

Having lost on Tuesday, the No. 8 Cavaliers and No. 8 Clippers are now preparing to host play-in games on Friday to decide the No. 8 seed in each conference. Their opponents will be determined in a pair of Wednesday play-in contests.

First up, in the East, is a meeting of Southeast rivals, as the No. 10 Hornets visit the No. 9 Hawks.

Both teams finished the season strong — after a tough 17-25 start, Atlanta went 26-14 the rest of the way to secure a play-in berth. The Hornets, meanwhile, lost 13 of 17 games during an extended slump from January to March, but bounced back to win 11 of their last 15 en route to a play-in spot.

The Hawks and Hornets will each be missing a key player, as big man John Collins and forward Gordon Hayward have been ruled out due to injuries. But star point guards Trae Young and LaMelo Ball are still surrounded by strong supporting casts, with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari playing major roles for Atlanta, while Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Kelly Oubre, and Montrezl Harrell complement Ball for Charlotte.

Both Southeast clubs paired top-10 offenses (No. 2 for Atlanta and No. 8 for Charlotte) with bottom-10 defenses (No. 22 for Charlotte and No. 26 for Atlanta) and finished in the middle of the pack in net rating (No. 14 for Atlanta and No. 16 for Charlotte). The Hawks’ home-court advantage helps make them a five-point favorite, according to BetOnline.ag.

Over in the West, the No. 9 Pelicans will host the No. 10 Spurs in Wednesday’s late game.

The Pelicans – a five-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag – generated more buzz than the Spurs down the stretch following a splashy trade deadline that saw them acquire star guard CJ McCollum. The longtime Blazer joined former All-Star Brandon Ingram, standout rookie Herbert Jones, double-double machine Jonas Valanciunas, and center-turned-forward Jaxson Hayes in what has become a formidable starting five. That group has posted a +8.2 net rating in 142 minutes.

The Spurs, meanwhile, were overlooked and viewed as a probable lottery team for much of the season, but they took advantage of the Trail Blazers’ decision to tank and the Lakers’ and Kings’ inability to win games consistently and claimed the West’s final play-in spot.

At 34-48, the Spurs are far from a juggernaut and aren’t loaded with star power, but All-Star guard Dejounte Murray, third-year forward Keldon Johnson, and center Jakob Poeltl had strong seasons, and the club’s rotation is filled out by useful role players like Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson, and Tre Jones.

Those looking for a reason to pick a San Antonio upset should note that the team actually had a better record on the road (18-23) than at home (16-25) this season, and registered a better net rating (+0.2) than the Pelicans (-0.8).

We want to know what you think. Will the favorites win again in Wednesday’s play-in games or will we get at least one upset tonight? Which teams will stay alive and which will head home for the season?

Make your picks in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in on tonight’s play-in matchups!

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Revisiting 2021/22 NBA Over/Under Predictions

April 12th, 2022 at 7:30am CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2021/22 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Nets (55.5 wins) to the Magic (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the fifth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three years, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record. Did that success carry over to ’21/22? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 55.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Under 51.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
  • Boston Celtics (Over 46.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
  • New York Knicks (Over 42.5 wins): ❌ (37-45)
  • Toronto Raptors (Under 36.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 54.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
  • Indiana Pacers (Under 42.5 wins): ✅ (25-57)
  • Chicago Bulls (Over 42.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 26.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
  • Detroit Pistons (Under 25.5 wins): ✅ (23-59)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (Under 48.5 wins): ❌ (53-29)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (43-39)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (43-39)
  • Washington Wizards (Over 34.5 wins): ✅ (35-47)
  • Orlando Magic (Under 22.5 wins): ✅ (22-60)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on the Nets and the Raptors resulted in a sub-.500 record for our voters in the Atlantic division, despite a narrow win on the Sixers under.

The results were better in the Central and Southeast, where most of the misses were only off by a few games. The one big misstep in those two divisions was on the Cavaliers, who exceeded their projected win total by more than any other team in the East.

Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Utah Jazz (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
  • Denver Nuggets (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (48-34)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (27-55)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 34.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 23.5 wins): ❌ (24-58)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (33-49)
  • Phoenix Suns (Over 51.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)
  • Golden State Warriors (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (53-29)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Over 43.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
  • Sacramento Kings (Under 36.5 wins): ✅ (30-52)

Southwest:

  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins): ✅ (52-30)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (Over 41.5 wins): ✅ (56-26)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Under 39.5 wins): ✅ (36-46)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Over 29.5 wins): ✅ (34-48)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 26.5 wins): ✅ (20-62)

Western Conference record: 8-7

In 2020/21, our voters went 5-0 in the Northwest by picking the teams expected to be above .500 to go over their projected win totals and the sub-.500 teams to go under. The same approach this season resulted in an 0-5 mark in the division, with the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves representing the Northwest’s biggest misses.

In the Pacific, injuries played a part in the Lakers and Clippers falling short of beating their projected win totals, but even a fully healthy Lakers team likely wouldn’t have won 53-plus games.

We did well with the non-L.A. teams in the Pacific and crushed the Southwest, where all five teams met our voters’ expectations (whether over or under) by at least three games. That 5-0 Southwest record helped secure an overall winning record this season.

Overall record: 16-14

For the second season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s all the more impressive given how many teams were affected by injuries, not to mention the way rosters were turned upside down in December and January due to COVID-19 outbreaks across the NBA.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Poll: Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Games

April 11th, 2022 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

A year ago, the NBA scheduled its first two Eastern Conference play-in games for the Tuesday after the regular season ended, with both the Western Conference games taking place on the Wednesday.

The league has tweaked that schedule this time around — Tuesday’s slate of games will feature one from each conference, with the Nos. 7 and 8 teams all in action. The Nos. 9 and 10 teams in both conferences will play on Wednesday.

[RELATED: NBA’s Play-In Field, Top-Six Playoff Seeds Set]

That means we’ll know by the end of the night on Tuesday which two teams will claim the No. 7 playoff seeds, securing first-round matchups against the Celtics in the East and the Grizzlies in the West.

The Nets are eight-point favorites over the Cavaliers in the first of Tuesday’s play-in games, according to BetOnline.ag, and for good reason. The game will be played in Brooklyn, where Kyrie Irving is now eligible to play despite not having received a COVID-19 vaccine. And after a strong start to the season, Cleveland didn’t play well down the stretch, posting a 9-16 record since the All-Star break.

Injuries will also be a factor in this game. Irving and Kevin Durant are both healthy, which is more than can be said about the Cavs’ All-Stars. While Darius Garland is good to go, center Jarrett Allen continues to battle a fractured finger and there’s pessimism he’ll be available on Tuesday. Ben Simmons and Joe Harris will be sidelined for Brooklyn, but the Nets have gotten used to playing without those guys — Harris hasn’t played since mid-November and Simmons has yet to make his Nets debut.

Over in the West, the Timberwolves will host the Clippers after finishing four games ahead of them during the regular season. Still, BetOnline.ag only lists Minnesota as a three-point favorite for the time being.

The Clippers are getting healthy at the right time, which is one reason why they’re viewed as a candidate to make a little noise in the postseason. Kawhi Leonard continues to recover from his ACL surgery, but Paul George has been back in the lineup since late March and Norman Powell returned last week.

Winning in Minnesota will be a tall order for L.A. though. The Wolves have been one of the NBA’s most dangerous teams since the new year, having gone 30-16 following a 16-20 start to the season. The trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has been tough to stop on offense, while Patrick Beverley and Jarred Vanderbilt helped anchor an above-average defense.

We want to know what you think. Which teams will win Tuesday’s play-in games and become this season’s No. 7 seeds?

Vote in our poll below, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Checking In On NBA’s 2022 Lottery Standings, Projected Draft Order

April 11th, 2022 at 7:56am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021/22 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for June 23 has not yet been set.

A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 60 picks in the 2021 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.

With the help of data from Tankathon and our own reverse standings, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
HOU 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
ORL 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
OKC 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
IND 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
POR 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
SAC 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
LAL 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
SAS* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
WAS 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
NOP* 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
NYK 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
CHA* 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
ATL* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

(* Asterisks denote play-in teams)

Because the Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, assuming neither one makes the playoffs. So their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Hawks were to win the random tiebreaker, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could (or will) lose their picks. The Lakers‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 (99.6%) or the Grizzlies if it falls outside the top 10.

The Pelicans‘ own pick is top-four protected and will go to the Trail Blazers if it falls any later in the lottery (90.6%). If New Orleans makes the playoffs, their first-rounder will go to the Hornets.

The play-in factor

The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:

  • San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
  • Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
  • Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
  • Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)

Based on their 46-36 record, the Timberwolves could end up with a pick as low as No. 19 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

The Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, while the Cavaliers and Nets were each 44-38, so if both teams in either of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

If, for example, Brooklyn makes the playoffs and Cleveland doesn’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary, since the Cavs would be in the lottery and the Nets wouldn’t.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

  1. Atlanta Hawks / Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
  2. Brooklyn Nets / Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Nets’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers if it lands outside of the top 14.
  3. Chicago Bulls / Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs.
  4. Denver Nuggets / Toronto Raptors (48-34)
    • Note: The Raptors’ pick will be sent to the Spurs.
  5. Boston Celtics / Milwaukee Bucks / Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
    • Note: The Celtics’ pick will be sent to the Spurs; the Sixers’ pick will be sent to the Nets (unless Brooklyn exercises its option to defer the pick until 2023).
  6. Miami Heat / Golden State Warriors (53-29)

These tiebreakers will be conducted by the NBA next Monday (April 18).

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2022 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

  • Pelicans or Grizzlies acquiring Lakers‘ pick (unprotected).
    • This pick will almost certainly end up in the top 10 (most likely at No. 8 or No. 9) and go to the Pelicans. There’s only a 0.4% chance it will land at No. 11 and No. 12 and be sent to Memphis instead.
  • Thunder acquiring Clippers‘ pick (unprotected).
    • If the Clippers secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be either No. 15 or No. 16. If the Clippers don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick (unprotected).
    • If the Nets secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will land in the 16-18 range. If the Nets don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
  • Spurs acquiring Raptors‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will land at either No. 20 or No. 21, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (top-six protected).
    • This pick will be No. 22.
  • Spurs acquiring Celtics‘ pick (top-four protected).
    • This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
  • Thunder acquiring Suns‘ pick (top-12 protected).
    • This pick will be No. 30.

Picks that won’t change hands:

  • Thunder acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-7, falling in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Thunder their 2023 first-round pick (top-18 protected).
  • Hawks acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-8, falling in its protected range. The Thunder will instead send their own 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to Atlanta and their obligation to the Hawks will be extinguished.
  • Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • This pick will be between 1-10, falling in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
  • Hawks acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-18 protected).
    • Even if the Hornets earn a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be between 15-18, falling in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Hawks their 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected).
  • Rockets acquiring Heat‘s pick (unprotected swap)
    • The Rockets have the ability to swap their own pick or the Nets’ pick for the Heat’s pick, but the Heat’s pick will be the lowest of the bunch (either No. 27 or No. 28, depending on the tiebreaker results), so Miami will keep it and their obligation to the Rockets will be extinguished.

Picks that might change hands:

  • Trail Blazers or Hornets acquiring Pelicans‘ pick (various protections).
    • If the Pelicans secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, their pick would be either No. 15 or No. 16 and would be sent to the Hornets. If the Pelicans miss the playoffs, they could still keep their pick if it moves into the top four in the lottery, but the odds of that wouldn’t be better than 13.9%. The Trail Blazers will receive it if it lands in the 5-14 range.
    • If the Trail Blazers don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans would owe Portland the Bucks’ 2025 first-round pick.
    • If the Hornets don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans will instead send their own 2022 and 2024 second-round picks to Charlotte and their obligation to the Hornets will be extinguished.
  • Pacers acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
    • The Cavaliers must secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament in order for the Pacers to receive this pick. If Cleveland makes the playoffs, the pick will land somewhere in the 16-18 range.
  • Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (unprotected)
    • This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results. The Nets will have the option to let the Sixers keep it and instead acquire Philadelphia’s unprotected 2023 first-round pick.
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Super-Max Candidates Who Will Be Impacted By 2021/22 All-NBA Picks

April 8th, 2022 at 1:43pm CST by Luke Adams

A player who has no more than six years of NBA experience is typically eligible for a maximum salary starting at 25% of the salary cap; a player with between seven and nine years of NBA service is eligible for a max deal starting at 30% of the cap; and a player with 10 or more years of experience can earn a starting salary worth up to 35% of the cap.

However, the NBA’s super-max rules, which we explain in a pair of glossary entries, allow players who don’t yet have 10 years of experience to move into higher maximum-salary tiers. By meeting certain criteria, players with seven to nine years of experience can become eligible for salaries worth up to 35% of the cap, while players with six years (or less) of service time can qualify for up to 30% of the cap.

The super-max performance criteria is as follows (only one of the following must be true):

  • The player was named to an All-NBA team and/or was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.
  • The player was named the NBA MVP in any of the three most recent seasons.

A player who has seven or eight years of NBA service with one or two years left on his contract becomes eligible for what is known as a “Designated Veteran” extension if he meets the required performance criteria and hasn’t been traded since his first four years in the league. A Designated Veteran contract can also be signed by a player who is technically a free agent if he has eight or nine years of service and meets the required criteria.

Nuggets star Nikola Jokic met the super-max performance criteria a year ago when he won his first MVP award. However, since he still only had six years of NBA experience under his belt at the time, he couldn’t actually sign a Designated Veteran extension with Denver until the summer of 2022. The expectation is that Jokic will sign a five-year contract extension with a starting salary worth 35% of the 2023/24 cap this offseason.

Players who are coming off their rookie contracts and meet the super-max performance criteria become eligible for what is colloquially known as a “Rose Rule” contract, starting at 30% of the cap instead of 25%. The rule is unofficially named after Derrick Rose, who won an MVP award in 2011 while he was still on his rookie deal.

Mavericks star Luka Doncic qualified for a Rose Rule super-max deal by earning All-NBA honors in his second and third NBA seasons in 2020 and 2021. Even if he doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season (he will), he already met the performance criteria by being named an All-NBA player in two of the three seasons before his new contract will take effect. When the Mavs signed Doncic to a rookie scale extension last offseason, they agreed it would start at 30% of the 2022/23 cap. Currently, that five-year deal projects to be worth over $212MM.

Not every player is as fortunate as Jokic or Doncic though. Most of the players who have a shot at becoming eligible for a super-max contract this year will need to earn a spot on one of the 2021/22 All-NBA teams in order to qualify.

Here’s a closer look at some of the players who have a lot riding on this season’s All-NBA picks from a financial perspective:

Trae Young (Hawks)

When Young signed a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension with the Hawks last August, the two sides agreed to include Rose Rule language in the agreement, opening the door for Young’s starting salary to be worth 30% of the cap (instead of 25%) when the deal begins in 2022/23. In order for that to happen though, Young has to earn one of 15 All-NBA spots this season.

It looked in the first half, as Atlanta got off to a 17-25 start, like Young would be a long shot to make an All-NBA team. However, as they did a year ago, the Hawks have played much better in the second half and Young has been leading the team’s push for a playoff spot.

Young’s season-long averages of 28.3 PPG and 9.7 APG in 74 games (34.9 MPG) make him a legitimate All-NBA candidate, even if he’s penalized a little for his subpar defense. While Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, and Ja Morant are probably ahead of him among potential All-NBA guards, Young looks like a strong Third Team contender, especially if voters consider DeMar DeRozan to be a forward.

Based on the NBA’s latest cap projections, Young would be in line for a $212.3MM payday if he’s named to an All-NBA team or $176.9MM if he isn’t. That’s a difference of more than $35MM, so voters will have to think carefully about which players they select as their six All-NBA guards this spring.

Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves)

Devin Booker (Suns)

Unlike Young, Towns and Booker have yet to lock in extensions with their respective teams and aren’t facing do-or-die All-NBA decisions this spring. However, both players would become eligible for super-max contract extensions (worth 35% of the cap instead of 30%) if they’re named to an All-NBA team this season.

The current contracts for Towns and Booker are virtually identical, and if they both earn All-NBA nods, their next deals could be too. With seven years of NBA experience and two years left on their respective contracts, they’d be eligible to sign four-year, Designated Veteran extensions this offseason.

Those deals wouldn’t go into effect until 2024/25, so it’s difficult to pin down exactly how much they’d be worth. We don’t yet have solid cap projections for that season. But if we assume a $130MM salary cap for that ’24/25, a four-year contract starting at 35% of the cap would work out to approximately $204MM.

First though, Towns and Booker will need to earn All-NBA spots. Booker looks like a lock, having been the go-to offensive option for the league’s best team.

Towns’ spot isn’t quite as certain, since he’ll be behind centers Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, and Rudy Gobert‘s defensive dominance always makes him an All-NBA threat. But I think voters will favor Towns over Gobert and other centers (such as Bam Adebayo). There’s even a possibility that both Jokic and Embiid could end up on the First Team if voters put one of the two stars at forward, which would leave both the Second Team and Third Team center spots up for grabs and make Towns a slam-dunk choice.

Zach LaVine (Bulls)

LaVine will have eight years of NBA service under his belt when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this offseason and will be eligible for a maximum salary starting at 30% of the cap. An All-NBA nod would bump that number up to 35%, but that doesn’t look nearly as realistic for LaVine as it did earlier in the season.

Slowed by knee pain, LaVine has seen his numbers dip a little in the second half, and while they’re still strong overall (24.4 PPG on .475/.389/.852 shooting), his teammate DeRozan is more likely to earn All-NBA accolades. And after slipping to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, Chicago is unlikely to be rewarded with two All-NBA selections.

Assuming LaVine doesn’t make an All-NBA team, his projected five-year maximum contract with the Bulls will be worth $212.3MM instead of $247.7MM.

The rest

The players listed above aren’t the only ones who have super-max eligibility on the line with this year’s All-NBA vote. But they’re the only ones among that group who are realistic candidates to actually make one of those All-NBA teams.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Michael Porter Jr., for instance, signed rookie scale extensions with Rose Rule language last offseason and would be eligible for higher max salaries if they make an All-NBA team, but obviously they won’t. Suns center Deandre Ayton, a restricted free agent this summer, would qualify for a 30% max salary with an All-NBA spot, and he certainly has a better case than Gilgeous-Alexander or Porter. But he’ll fall short too.

When this season’s All-NBA teams are eventually announced, Young, Towns, Booker, and – to a lesser extent – LaVine are the best candidates to benefit financially.

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Checking In On Active 10-Day Contracts

April 5th, 2022 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

With just six days left in the 2021/22 season, no more standard 10-day contracts will be signed this spring.

Teams looking to fill open 15-man roster spots will do what the Pistons did with Carsen Edwards or what the Bucks are doing with Luca Vildoza, signing players to rest-of-season contracts, ideally with at least one extra non-guaranteed year tacked onto those deals.

It is possible that one or two more “10-day” contracts will be signed by teams eligible for hardship exceptions. Those clubs have full 15-man rosters but are hardship-eligible either because a player tested positive for COVID-19 or because several of their players are injured.

Those hardship 10-days, like the one the Thunder completed with Georgios Kalaitzakis on Monday, are technically just rest-of-season contracts that don’t give the team any form of Bird rights this offseason. Kalaitzakis will become a free agent immediately after the season ends, and Oklahoma City won’t be able to use the Non-Bird exception to re-sign him in the summer.

Here are the remaining active 10-day contracts, which will expire in the coming days:

The Mavericks, Thunder, and Trail Blazers have full 15-man rosters, so they won’t create any openings on their respective rosters when their current 10-day agreements expire.

However, the Jazz, Celtics, Pacers, and Magic are each using a roster spot on a 10-day player. When those contracts expire, those clubs could either bring back the same player on a rest-of-season contract or use that 15th slot on someone else. For instance, Utah might want to promote two-way player Trent Forrest to its standard roster to ensure that he’s playoff-eligible.

Nearly any free agent signed to a rest-of-season deal using a 15-man roster spot will be playoff-eligible, so the Jazz and Celtics will have plenty of options. Semi Ojeleye, Kyle Guy, Joel Ayayi, Luka Samanic, and Chris Smith are the only players who have been placed on waivers since March 1, making them ineligible for the postseason.

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2022 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

April 4th, 2022 at 10:38am CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than two-and-a-half months away from NBA draft day, but before we get to June 23, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:

April 24 (11:59 pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College players and international early entrants have until the end of the day on April 24 to submit their names into the 2022 NBA draft pool. They can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they can’t hire an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

Once the early entrant list is set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players.

May 16-17: NBA G League Elite Camp (tentative)

In 2019, the Elite Camp – having recently been revamped by the NBA – consisted of 40 veteran G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half.

After being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Elite Camp returned in 2021, but only featured 40 draft-eligible prospects, without the G League players. That format will carry over to this year.

May 18-22: NBA draft combine

This week-long event, which takes place in Chicago, allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players.

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

May 17: NBA draft lottery

The 2022 draft lottery will be the fourth one that uses the new format, which was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

The new system has generated some excitement during the past three draft lotteries — six of the 12 teams that have claimed top-four picks since 2019 entered the night without a top-six spot in the lottery standings.

Our reverse standings provide a glimpse at what the pre-lottery draft order could look like.

June 1 (11:59 pm ET): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen – and seniors who are eligible to play for more one season – who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by June 1. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine.

An early entrant could technically wait until after June 1 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad.

June 13 (5:00 pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether or not a college player decided to keep his name in the draft, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to June 13.

June 23: NBA draft day

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when some of the first major trades of the summer are completed and when we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

It’s also worth noting that the hours and days after the draft ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 60 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

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What To Watch For In NBA Season’s Final 10 Days

April 1st, 2022 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s 2021/22 regular season will wrap up on April 10, which means we now have just 10 days left in the season. Here are a few things worth keeping an eye on during those 10 days:

Play-in races and playoff positioning

Eastern Conference

You could make a case that the Eastern Conference playoff race would be more exciting without the addition of the play-in, since three teams – the Nets, Hawks, and Hornets – are now tied at 40-37 for the No. 8 seed. But that race is still a fascinating one, since the team that finished the season at No. 8 will get two chances to win one game in order to earn a playoff spot — the No. 9 and No. 10 teams would have to win twice to make the playoffs.

The No. 7 Cavaliers, who have slipped 2.5 games behind the No. 6 Raptors, now appear headed for the play-in after spending most of the season in the top six. The Cavs, losers of five of their last six games, have been slumping so badly that we shouldn’t necessarily pencil them in for a home game yet — at 42-35, they only have a two-game cushion on the next three play-in teams and could be caught within the next 10 days.

Further up the Eastern Conference standings, there are plenty of tight seeding races involving the likes of the Heat, Bucks, Celtics, and Sixers. Close races in the bottom half of the playoff/play-in field mean that it’s been hard for those top teams to determine whether it makes more sense to push for a top seed or to angle for a lower seed.

Important intra-conference games:

  • 4/2: Heat at Bulls, Nets at Hawks
  • 4/3: Heat at Raptors, Sixers at Cavaliers
  • 4/5: Bucks at Bulls, Hawks at Raptors, Hornets at Heat
  • 4/6: Celtics at Bulls
  • 4/7: Celtics at Bucks, Sixers at Raptors
  • 4/8: Cavaliers at Nets, Hawks at Heat, Hornets at Bulls
  • 4/10: Bucks at Cavaliers

Western Conference

Over in the West, all eyes are on the 31-45 Lakers, who are currently tied with the Spurs for the final play-in spot and would lose out on a tiebreaker if they don’t pass San Antonio in the standings. Frankly, the Lakers have been so bad this season that it’s hard to imagine them advancing to the playoffs even if they do clinch a play-in spot, but finishing outside of the top 10 would be a further indignity for a team that entered the season as a title favorite. L.A. hopes to get some reinforcements on Friday in the form of stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The Timberwolves have a pretty safe hold on the No. 7 spot, while the Clippers are virtually locked into No. 8 and the Pelicans have a bit of breathing room at No. 9, so there may not be a ton of drama elsewhere in the Western play-in picture.

A pair of tight seeding races are ongoing in the top six though — the Mavericks and Warriors (both 48-29) are tied for the No. 3 seed, while the Jazz and Nuggets (both 46-31) are tied for No. 5. Dallas and Utah control those respective tiebreakers.

Important intra-conference games:

  • 4/1: Pelicans at Lakers, Timberwolves at Nuggets
  • 4/2: Jazz at Warriors
  • 4/3: Nuggets at Lakers, Pelicans at Clippers
  • 4/5: Grizzlies at Jazz, Lakers at Suns, Spurs at Nuggets
  • 4/7: Grizzlies at Nuggets, Lakers at Warriors, Spurs at Timberwolves
  • 4/9: Pelicans at Grizzlies, Warriors at Spurs
  • 4/10: Lakers at Nuggets, Spurs at Mavericks, Warriors at Pelicans

Lottery positioning and traded draft picks

There are important races happening at both ends of the standings as the season winds down. At the bottom, the Magic and Rockets (both 20-57) are tied for the top spot in the lottery, with the Pistons (21-56) and Thunder (22-54) rounding out the top four.

The full reverse standings can be viewed right here, while the lottery odds for each team in the top 14 can be found here.

Additionally, a handful of traded draft picks remain up for grabs as the season winds down. For instance, the Cavaliers will trade their first-round pick to the Pacers if it’s not in the top 14 — in other words, if they can’t clinch a playoff spot in the play-in, the Cavs will hang onto that pick.

The Pelicans‘ first-rounder is another one worth watching closely. It’ll stay with New Orleans if it’s in the top four, go to Portland if it’s between 5-14, and go to Charlotte if it’s between 15-30. So the Hornets will be rooting for the Pelicans to earn a playoff spot via the play-in, moving that pick out of the lottery. If the Pels miss the playoffs, the Trail Blazers will be in position to receive the pick as long as New Orleans doesn’t get lucky in the lottery.

Finally, the Lakers‘ first-rounder will be a major prize this spring for either the Pelicans (if it lands between 1-10) or the Grizzlies (if it’s between 11-30). Los Angeles is currently tied for the NBA’s eighth-worst record, which bodes very well for New Orleans, but there’s still time for that to change.

Award races

Often at this time of year, a number of NBA award races have long been decided, with just one or two still up in the air. In 2021/22, it’s the opposite.

Yeah, we can probably safely assume that Tyler Herro will win Sixth Man of the Year, and Ja Morant looks like a clear favorite for Most Improved Player.

But there’s no clear frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year; Scottie Barnes is putting pressure on Evan Mobley in the Rookie of the Year race; Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo remain engaged in an electrifying three-way race for MVP honors; and All-NBA voting looks like a nightmare (one with major implications for several super-max candidates).

Even though there are only 10 days left in the regular season, given how close these races are, the performances in those final 10 days could legitimately flip certain awards from one player to another.

Roster moves

With just 10 days left in the season, this year’s period of standard 10-day contracts is essentially over. A team filling its final open roster spot will sign a player to a rest-of-season or multiyear deal at this point, rather than a 10-day pact.

The one exception is 10-day hardship deals, which can still be completed during the final week-and-a-half of a season by teams dealing with COVID-19 cases or several injuries.

Why wouldn’t those hardship contracts just take the form of rest-of-season deals too? Well, this way, teams can’t gain certain offseason rights to more players than the standard roster limits allow. A rest-of-season contract would give the club a player’s Bird, Early Bird, or Non-Bird rights for the offseason, whereas a 10-day deal won’t.

Here are the teams that still have an open roster spot with 10 days left in the season:

  • Atlanta Hawks
  • Boston Celtics *
  • Detroit Pistons *
  • Indiana Pacers *
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Orlando Magic *
  • Sacramento Kings ^
  • Utah Jazz *

* The Celtics, Pistons, Pacers, Magic, and Jazz each have a player on a 10-day contract filling their 15th roster spots. Those deals will expire before the season ends.

^ The Kings have a full 15-man roster but have an open two-way spot.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 30th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Jalen Brunson, G, Mavericks

2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

Brunson will never be considered the Mavericks’ best pick in the 2018 draft – that honor belongs to backcourt partner Luka Doncic – but he has become one of that draft’s best values. Selected 33rd overall, Brunson has gradually taken on a larger role in Dallas and is enjoying the best year of his career in 2021/22, averaging 16.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, and 3.8 RPG on .498/.368/.845 shooting in 73 games (32.0 MPG).

Brunson’s four-year, $6.1MM rookie contract was a great deal for the Mavs, but they’ll have to give him a massive raise if they want to keep him. Because he’s a second-rounder who signed for four years, the 25-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent this summer rather than restricted. That should give him more leverage in contract negotiations, as should the interest he’s reportedly receiving from the Knicks and Pistons.

The rumored asking price for Brunson’s next deal is $80MM for four years, which seems within reach — other guards like Fred VanVleet, Lonzo Ball, and Malcolm Brogdon have signed similar contracts in recent years, and Brunson’s representatives can make a case that his résumé matches up favorably with what those players had accomplished when they finalized their respective deals.

Dennis Schröder, G, Rockets

2021/22: $5.89MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Schröder’s stock has yo-yo’d up and down drastically in the last two seasons. After famously turning down an extension offer worth a reported $80MM+ from the Lakers, Schröder settled for a one-year, $5.9MM deal with Boston in free agency. He outperformed that contract early in the season, prompting some discussion about how the Celtics – who would have only held his Non-Bird rights at season’s end – wouldn’t be able to afford to bring him back.

However, Schröder eventually fell back down to earth and became a trade chip for the C’s, who sent him to Houston. Initially viewed as a possible buyout candidate for the lottery-bound Rockets, the veteran guard earned some early praise for his impact on the team’s young guards. But Schröder’s overall numbers in 15 games in Houston, including a .393 FG% and a .328 3PT%, probably won’t convince offseason suitors that he deserves a raise on his 2022/23 salary.

Lonnie Walker, G/F, Spurs

2021/22: $4.45MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

After a promising 2020/21 campaign in which he averaged a career-high 11.2 PPG in 60 games (25.4 MPG), Walker got off to a dismal start this season, shooting just 38.5% from the field and 29.3% on threes through his first 51 games (22.5 MPG).

He has played far better since the trade deadline, putting up 18.7 PPG on .471/.388/.667 shooting in 13 appearances (27.2 MPG) before he went down with a back injury on March 18. Having rejuvenated his value as he nears free agency, Walker is set to return from that back issue on Wednesday.

The Spurs have been better with Walker off the court than on it, and his overall numbers this season still aren’t great, but he looks like a much safer bet to receive a $6.3MM qualifying offer (making him a restricted free agent) than he did two months ago.

Kyle Anderson, F, Grizzlies

2021/22: $9.94MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Anderson’s stock has dipped a little this year, but that’s in large part due to how good he was in 2020/21, when he posted a career-best 12.4 PPG and 3.6 APG and established himself as a legitimate three-point threat for the first time (36.0% on 3.8 attempts per game).

Those numbers are all down this year (7.4 PPG, 2.6 APG, .323 3PT%) as Anderson has moved to the bench and seen his minutes cut back. The Grizzlies’ overall success, including a 53-23 record, works in Anderson’s favor, but his +3.2 net rating is among the worst on the team.

While Anderson is still a versatile defender who provides some value on the wing, teams interested in him this summer will probably view last season’s increased offensive output as an aberration rather than a sign of things to come on that end of the floor.

Tony Snell, G/F, Pelicans

2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

The only player on the Pelicans’ 15-man roster who doesn’t have a contract for next season, Snell was a throw-in the CJ McCollum trade last month. He had a few solid games after arriving in New Orleans, but has since fallen out of the rotation and probably isn’t part of the team’s plans beyond this season.

Snell signed a minimum-salary contract last summer with Portland following a season in which he made 56.9% of his three-point attempts. With that number down to 35.3% in 2021/22, another minimum-salary deal is probably a best-case scenario for him this offseason.

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Community Shootaround: NBA’s Worst Record

March 28th, 2022 at 2:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Fans of the Magic, Rockets, and Pistons won’t be especially invested in the playoff and seeding races taking place near the top of the NBA’s standings during the last two weeks of the regular season. However, they’ll be closely monitoring their respective teams’ place in the standings for lottery purposes.

Entering action on Monday, Orlando, Houston, and Detroit have identical 20-55 records, meaning they’re all tied for the top spot in the NBA’s draft lottery, as our Reverse Standings show.

Because the lottery format dictates that the league’s bottom three teams all have identical odds for the No. 1 overall pick (14%) and a top-four pick (52.1%), this year’s race to the bottom isn’t quite as consequential as it would have been a few years ago under the NBA’s old lottery system.

Still, since each bottom-three team has a 47.9% chance of falling outside of the top four, its position entering the lottery is crucial — the league’s worst team can’t fall any further than No. 5 on lottery night, whereas the third-worst team could slip all the way to No. 7.

The Magic have played some of their best games of the season in recent weeks, winning home games vs. Minnesota and Golden State and picking up victories in New Orleans and Toronto earlier this month. They’re 4-5 in their last nine games, but have the NBA’s ninth-hardest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.

The Rockets looked a week ago like the odds-on favorite to finish the season atop the lottery standings, but with three wins in their last four games, that’s now far from a certainty. Their remaining schedule is the league’s sixth-easiest, per Tankathon, and includes five home games, with just two on the road.

The Pistons, meanwhile, are 8-10 in their last 18 games, but just 2-8 in their last 10. Their remaining schedule is the league’s 11th-hardest, per Tankathon, and they have more games on the road than at home.

Of course, we shouldn’t exclude Oklahoma City from this conversation. At 21-53, the Thunder are just 1.5 games ahead of the three aforementioned clubs after losing 11 of their last 12 games. They’ll host the Pistons on Friday in what should be an important game — the winner of that contest could put itself out of the running for the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings.

The Thunder have the NBA’s ninth-easiest remaining schedule, with an equal split of home and road games. Of course, it’s worth noting that two of OKC’s upcoming games are against a tanking Portland team that is probably the NBA’s actual worst right now (even if the Blazers’ full-season record doesn’t reflect that). It would be a little surprising if the Thunder manage to lose both those meetings.

What do you think? Which team will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and claim the top spot in the draft lottery standings? Will any of these clubs lose the rest of their games? Will there be a tie for the No. 1 spot, necessitating a coin flip?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with yours thoughts on this season’s race to the bottom.

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