Hoops Rumors Originals

There are just over three weeks left in the 2021/22 NBA regular season, so it’s worth completing one last in-season check-in on the traded first-round picks for the 2022 NBA draft.

Many of the traded first-rounders for the ’22 draft come with protections, so there’s a chance they might not change hands this year at all.

Using our list of traded first-round picks for 2022 and our reverse standings tool, here’s our breakdown of which of those traded picks are most and least likely to change hands, and which ones remain up in the air:

Current lottery standings

1. Houston Rockets
2. Orlando Magic
3. Detroit Pistons
   • Traded to Thunder (top-16 protected).
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
   • Traded to Hawks (top-14 protected).
5. Indiana Pacers
6. Sacramento Kings
7. Portland Trail Blazers
   • Traded to Bulls (top-14 protected).
8. San Antonio Spurs
9. New Orleans Pelicans
   • Traded to Trail Blazers (between 5-14) or Hornets (15-30).
10. New York Knicks (tie)
    Los Angeles Lakers (tie)
    • Lakers’ pick traded to Pelicans (between 1-10) or Grizzlies (11-30).
12. Washington Wizards
13. Atlanta Hawks
14. Charlotte Hornets
    • Traded to Hawks (top-18 protected).

Before we get into specific picks, there are a couple caveats worth mentioning here. For one, the eventual draft order could look much different from the lottery standings if two or three teams get lucky and move up into the top four on lottery night.

For instance, even if the Pelicans finish with the NBA’s ninth-worst record, that doesn’t mean they’ll send their pick to the Trail Blazers — they could luck out and jump into the top four, hanging onto their first-rounder.

Additionally, four of these teams will make the play-in tournament. Currently, those four teams project to be the Hornets, Hawks, Lakers, and Pelicans. If one of those teams subsequently wins a pair of play-in games and earns the No. 8 playoff seed in its conference, that team would move out of the lottery and out of the top 14 of the draft (likely getting the No. 15 pick).

In other words, even if the Pelicans finish with the league’s ninth-worst record, Charlotte could still get New Orleans’ first-rounder if the Pels win two play-in games.

With all that in mind, we can safely say the Pistons, Thunder, and Trail Blazers will keep their picks. Detroit and Oklahoma City aren’t making the play-in, and based on how Portland has performed since shutting down Jusuf Nurkic after the All-Star break, the Blazers aren’t making it either. As a result, the following will occur:

• The Pistons will owe their top-18 protected pick to Oklahoma City in 2023.
• The Thunder will send their 2024 second-round pick and 2025 second-round pick to Atlanta, extinguishing any future obligations.
• The Trail Blazers will owe their top-14 protected pick to Chicago in 2023.

It’s also a pretty safe bet that the Hornets will keep their first-round pick. They’d have to go on a serious hot streak in the coming weeks in order to finish with a top-12 record in the NBA. As a result…

• The Hornets will owe their top-16 protected to Atlanta in 2023.

The Pelicans‘ and Lakers‘ first-round picks remain very much up for grabs and will be worth watching closely down the stretch. For what it’s worth, if the season ended today and the Pelicans didn’t earn a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, they’d have about a 20% chance to move up into the top four and keep their pick.

A coin flip determines the draft lottery order when two teams finish the season with identical records, so if the Lakers and Knicks were to tie for the NBA’s 10th-worst record and the Lakers didn’t make the playoffs via play-in, the Grizzlies and Pelicans would be watching that coin flip very closely. It could end up determining whether New Orleans gets the No. 10 overall pick or Memphis gets No. 11 overall.

Current standings for rest of first round

15. Los Angeles Clippers
    • Traded to Thunder (unprotected).
16. Brooklyn Nets
    • Traded to Rockets or Heat (the Rockets will get the most favorable of Brooklyn’s and Miami’s first-rounders, while the Heat get the least favorable of the two.)
17. Toronto Raptors (tie)
    Cleveland Cavaliers (tie)
    • Raptors’ pick traded to Spurs (top-14 protected); Cavaliers’ pick traded to Pacers (top-14 protected).
19. Minnesota Timberwolves
20. Chicago Bulls
21. Denver Nuggets (tie)
    Boston Celtics (tie)
    • Celtics’ pick traded to Spurs (top-four protected).
23. Philadelphia 76ers
    • Traded to Nets (Brooklyn has the option of deferring the pick to 2023).
24. Dallas Mavericks (tie)
    Utah Jazz (tie)
    • Jazz’s pick traded to Grizzlies (top-six protected).
26. Milwaukee Bucks
27. Miami Heat
28. Golden State Warriors
29. Memphis Grizzlies
30. Phoenix Suns
    • Traded to Thunder (top-12 protected).

Let’s start with a few of the simplest traded picks in this section — there’s no chance the Suns‘ selection will end up in the top 12, and there’s virtually no chance the Celtics‘ pick will land in the top four or the Jazz‘s pick will fall in the top six.

For Boston’s or Utah’s pick to fall within its protected range, one of those teams would need to slump badly enough to fall to seventh in its conference, then lose two play-in games, then get lucky enough in the lottery to claim a top-four pick despite being No. 14 in the lottery standings. It’s the longest of long shots, so we can safely assume those picks will convey.

If the season ended today, the Spurs would get either the No. 21 or No. 22 pick (depending on a coin flip) from Boston, the Grizzlies would receive either No. 24 or No. 25 from Utah, and the Thunder would get No. 30 from Phoenix. Additionally, the Thunder would receive the Clippers‘ unprotected pick, tentatively at No. 15 (though the play-in tournament could shift it slightly in one direction or the other).

It’s also a safe bet the Rockets, who control Brooklyn’s first-rounder and have the option of swapping it with Miami’s pick, will simply hang onto the Nets‘ selection. Right now, it projects to be No. 16, far more favorable than the Heat’s No. 27, and it could even move into the lottery if Brooklyn is eliminated in the play-in tournament.

That leaves three more traded picks still somewhat up in the air.

The Raptors and Cavaliers will both give up their first-rounders if they land outside of the top 14. It seems likely that will happen, but until those clubs clinch playoff spots – either via the play-in or simply by finishing in the East’s top six – it’s not a certainty. For the time being, it looks like the Spurs and Pacers can probably bet on receiving picks in the late teens (No. 17 and No. 18 if the season ended today and the Raptors won a play-in game).

Finally, the pick the Sixers have traded to the Nets is unprotected, but Brooklyn has the option of passing on it and receiving Philadelphia’s 2023 first-rounder instead. I wouldn’t expect the Nets to take advantage of that deferral option as long as the pick remains at No. 23 — unless they want to roll the dice on James Harden leaving or another Joel Embiid injury, the Nets probably can’t reasonably expect the 76ers’ 2023 first-rounder to be better than No. 23.

However, if the Sixers finish the season strong and that pick ends up at, say, No. 26 or 27, it would create a more difficult decision for Brooklyn.