Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

March 14th, 2022 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jusuf Nurkic, C, Trail Blazers

2021/22: $12MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

A lengthy injury absence preceding a player’s free agency typically doesn’t help that player’s stock, but Nurkic’s value is on the rise despite the case of plantar fasciitis that will sideline him for at least four weeks and could end his season.

Prior to his injury, the veteran center was playing his best basketball of the season during a four-game winning streak (21.5 PPG, 14.0 RPG, and 4.3 APG). As a result, it’s safe to assume shutting him down was more about keeping the Blazers’ tanking efforts on track than it was about any long-term health concerns. After all, Portland has had essentially a neutral net rating (-0.1) during Nurkic’s minutes this season, compared to a -11.7 mark when he’s not on the court.

Nurkic looks like a good bet to get a new contract worth at least the $12MM per year he’s currently making — and likely more than that.

Derrick Favors, C, Thunder

2021/22: $9.72MM
2022/23: $10.18MM player option
Stock: Down ⬇️

Favors’ per-minute production hasn’t declined significantly during the last two seasons, but his 15.3 minutes per game in 2020/21 and his 16.7 MPG this season are the two lowest marks of his career. Injuries and DNP-CDs have also limited him to just 39 games so far in ’21/22.

At age 30, Favors should still have plenty left in the tank, and he could reverse the trend of his declining playing time if he ends up in the right situation next season. But he won’t get a contract offer on the open market that exceeds the value of his player option ($10.18MM). I’d expect him to opt in and then try to work with the Thunder on a trade or buyout.

Danuel House, F, Jazz

2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

Once a key three-and-D rotation player in Houston, House saw his numbers dip in 2020/21 and slide even further to start this season, leading to his release. It took him a little time to find a permanent new home following a 10-day deal with the Knicks, but he has hit his stride again in Utah, averaging 6.7 PPG with an impressive .453 3PT% in 18 games (18.8 MPG).

House isn’t the type of player who is a threat to go off for 30 points on a given night (his career high is 23), but his ability to knock down three-pointers and defend multiple positions could be very important for a Utah team hoping to make a deep playoff run. A strong postseason showing would further boost House’s stock entering the summer.

Josh Okogie, G/F, Timberwolves

2021/22: $4.09MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Okogie has received praise from head coach Chris Finch for his leadership and his attitude, but the former first-round pick is no longer part of the Timberwolves’ regular rotation, having logged just 48 minutes across seven games since the start of February. He has some value on defense, but doesn’t provide enough on offense to warrant consistent minutes.

While Minnesota can technically make Okogie a restricted free agent this offseason, doing so would require a $5.86MM qualifying offer — I expect the team to pass on that QO, letting Okogie become an unrestricted FA.

Jeff Green, F, Nuggets

2021/22: $4.5MM
2022/23: $4.5MM player option
Stock: Up ⬆️

After years of settling for minimum-salary contracts, Green earned a two-year, $9MM commitment from the Nuggets last summer. The veteran forward will turn 36 years old later this year, so he initially seemed like a safe bet to pick up his $4.5MM option for 2022/23. But that’s no longer a given, based on the way he has performed this season.

Stepping into a larger role than anticipated due to Michael Porter Jr.‘s extended absence (and, to a lesser extent, Vlatko Cancar‘s season-ending foot injury), Green has averaged nearly 25 minutes per game in 63 appearances (51 starts) for Denver, scoring 10.5 PPG on 51.4% shooting.

While he has struggled from beyond the three-point line (30.1%), Green has been a crucial contributor this season for a Nuggets team trying to survive without two of its top scorers (Porter and Jamal Murray). It might be enough to justify an offseason opt-out — if he finishes the season strong, Green could potentially land one more multiyear deal.

Community Shootaround: Picking Playoff Opponents

March 14th, 2022 at 11:46am CST by Luke Adams

Based on the current NBA standings, a pair of increasingly realistic scenarios are in play for the first round of this year’s postseason.

The Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed could be in line for a matchup against a Nets team that has Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons available, if New York City’s private sector vaccine mandate is dropped within the next month and Simmons is ready to play.

The Western Conference’s No. 1 seed could get a first-round matchup against a Lakers team that has a healthy Anthony Davis coming back from his foot injury. Or potentially a Clippers team with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell available.

We can debate just how dangerous the Nets, Lakers, and Clippers would be in the playoffs if they’re leaning heavily on stars coming off lengthy absences, but it’s probably safe to assume that neither the Heat nor the Suns (the league’s current top seeds) would welcome a first-round series against such a star-studded squad.

With that in mind, it makes sense that multiple NBA writers have recently broached the idea of allowing top-seeded playoff teams to choose their own first-round opponents. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer wrote about the subject last week, suggesting that it would add intrigue and would create an additional incentive for top teams to fight for the No. 1 seed in the conference. ESPN’s Zach Lowe also discussed the idea on Friday.

Both O’Connor and Lowe suggested a format in which the No. 1 seed could pick its opponent from the two play-in winners, leaving the No. 2 seed to face the other play-in winner.

However, as Lowe observes, that format could lead to “aggrieved” No. 2 seeds who would’ve perhaps preferred to finish at No. 3 and play the No. 6 team — if the season ended today, for instance, some top Eastern teams may rather face the No. 6 Cavaliers than the No. 7 Raptors or No. 8 Nets.

According to Lowe, a few teams have proposed the idea of a full playoff draft, with the top three seeds in each conference picking their first-round opponents from among the bottom four seeds. So, if there was a No. 8 seed that the top clubs really wanted to avoid, the “playoff draft” could result in that No. 8 team facing the No. 4 seed in the first round.

According to O’Connor, he has heard from people around the NBA who worry that such a format could lead to “an acrimonious relationship between players and teams over who picks who for a playoff series.” But O’Connor believes the extra drama generated should outweigh any hurt feelings.

Lowe, meanwhile, acknowledges that the “playoff draft” format could have some unintended consequences, including some scenarios where it’s better to finish fifth than fourth. But he points out that some playoff teams already spend the last few days of the regular season engaging in mini-tanks to try to get to a preferred seed.

We want to know what you think. Should top playoff seeds get to choose their first-round opponents? If so, would you only want the No. 1 seed to get that option, or would it make sense for the top three seeds to all get their pick?

Head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Hoops Rumors’ 10-Day Contract Tracker

March 11th, 2022 at 1:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Due primarily to the league-wide COVID-19 outbreak in December and January – and all the replacement players required during that outbreak – the 2021/22 NBA season has been a record-setting one for 10-day contracts.

By our count, the number of 10-day contracts signed this season has reached a staggering 196, and will increase to 197 once the Pelicans‘ reported deal with Tyrone Wallace is officially finalized. We’ve tracked every single one of those signings using our 10-day contract tracker. The full list of this season’s 10-day pacts can be found right here.

Besides featuring all of this year’s 10-day deals, our 10-day contract tracker includes information on all 10-day contracts signed since the 2006/07 season. The search filters in the database make it easy to sort by team, player and year. For instance, if you want to see all the 10-day contracts that the Lakers have signed in recent years, you can do so here.

You can also use the tracker to identify which 10-day deals remain active. That list, which can be found right here, is as follows:

Charlotte Hornets: Isaiah Thomas (runs through 3/11)
New Orleans Pelicans: Alize Johnson (runs through 3/11)
Portland Trail Blazers: Drew Eubanks (runs through 3/13)
Boston Celtics: Malik Fitts (runs through 3/14)
Boston Celtics: Kelan Martin (runs through 3/14)
Toronto Raptors: Armoni Brooks (runs through 3/15)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Moses Brown (runs through 3/19)

Players are typically prohibited from signing more than two 10-day contracts with the same team in a given league year. Since Thomas, Johnson, Brooks, and Brown are on their first 10-day contracts with their respective clubs, they’ll be eligible to sign at least one more.

Eubanks would also be eligible to continue signing 10-day deals with the Trail Blazers, since his first two have been completed using an injury-related hardship exception — those hardship deals don’t count toward the limit.

Fitts and Martin are on their second standard 10-day deals with Boston, so they won’t be eligible to sign a third unless Boston qualifies for a hardship exception. The Celtics will either have to sign them to rest-of-season contracts or let them go after their current deals expire on Monday night.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Most Improved Player

March 11th, 2022 at 12:47pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s Most Improved Player award is often the one that generates the most crowded field of candidates. While there are only so many legitimate contenders in a given season for awards like Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year, there could be dozens of players who have decent cases for MIP consideration.

This season, however, oddsmakers believe there’s a clear-cut frontrunner for Most Improved Player honors — betting sites like Bovada.lv and BetOnline.ag have made Grizzlies guard Ja Morant the overwhelming favorite. If you want to place a wager at BetOnline on Morant to win the award, you have to risk $2,000 just to potentially win $100.

Morant has certainly taken a leap in his third NBA season. His scoring average has increased from 19.1 PPG to 27.5 PPG, and his shooting percentages have improved too, from .449/.303/.728 a year ago to .495/.346/.763 in 2021/22. The ascendant point guard has led the Grizzlies to a 45-22 record, the second-best mark in the NBA.

As ESPN’s Tim MacMahon and Tim Bontemps observed this week on The Hoop Collective podcast (video link), Morant has gone from missing the All-Star team in his first two seasons to becoming an All-NBA lock and a viable MVP candidate, which Bontemps calls “the hardest leap to make.” That’s why he looks like the safe bet to take home the Most Improved Player award this spring.

But is Morant a lock? Hornets forward Miles Bridges, Cavaliers guard Darius Garland, Spurs guard Dejounte Murray, Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons, and Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey are among the next-best candidates listed at Bovada and BetOnline.

Bridges’ shooting numbers have dipped a little this year with his increased usage rate, but he has increased his scoring average from 12.7 PPG to 19.8 PPG and is putting up career highs in almost every other key category.

Garland has put up 21.0 PPG and 8.2 APG with a .480 FG% (all career highs) while playing a crucial role in the Cavaliers’ unexpected turnaround, but he had already established a pretty impressive baseline (17.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, .451 FG%) in his sophomore season in 2020/21.

Murray has taken his game to another level in his sixth season, with 20.6 PPG, 9.4 APG, and 8.4 RPG (all career highs) to go along with an NBA-best 2.1 SPG. The Spurs’ 25-41 record may hurt his case, however.

None of these candidates has improved his scoring numbers more than Simons, who averaged 7.8 PPG last season and is up to 17.3 PPG in 2021/22, without a drop in efficiency. Simons has benefited from an increased role, but his per-minute numbers are also the best of his career.

Maxey, meanwhile, helped the Sixers remain in the playoff mix this season with Ben Simmons absent, with 17.4 PPG and 4.4 APG on .481/.419/.864 shooting after playing a limited role as a rookie. It’s worth noting though that some voters shy away from second-year players, since it’s considered a given that most will take a significant step forward.

What do you think? Is Morant a lock to win this year’s Most Improved Player award? Do you think Bridges, Garland, Murray, Simons, Maxey, or someone else has a stronger case?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Proration

March 11th, 2022 at 7:33am CST by Luke Adams

The concept of proration is one used in variety of fields and professions, and isn’t specific to the NBA. The term, which shows up frequently in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, refers to the practice of calculating a figure proportionately.

In the NBA, the most common examples of proration apply to players on non-guaranteed contracts who are waived before their salaries become guaranteed, or players who sign minimum-salary contracts partway through the season. In each instance, the player would receive a prorated portion of his salary based on the number of days he was under contract during the season.

For example, when DeMarcus Cousins signed with the Nuggets on February 25, he received a minimum-salary contract. For the 2021/22 season, the minimum salary for a player with Cousins’ years of NBA service (10+) is $2,641,691, though such a deal would only count against his team’s cap for $1,669,178, as we explain here. However, since Cousins wasn’t with the Nuggets since the start of the season, he wasn’t entitled to that full minimum salary from the team.

The ’21/22 NBA season is 174 days long and Cousins signed his contract on the 130th day of the season, meaning his “one-year” contract will span 45 days. Due to proration, his minimum salary will be worth 45/174th of a full minimum salary. So instead of earning $2,641,691, he’ll make $683,196. And instead of counting for $1,669,178 on the Nuggets’ books, Cousins’ cap charge is 45/174th of that amount: $431,684.

If the Nuggets had signed Cousins using cap space or a cap exception, his salary wouldn’t necessarily have been prorated, but the minimum salary exception begins to prorate after the first day of the regular season.

The same principle of proration applied to an earlier deal that Cousins signed this season, with the Bucks. Cousins finalized a non-guaranteed minimum-salary contract with Milwaukee on November 30, the 43rd day of the regular season. That deal was initially worth $2,004,041 (132/174ths of $2,641,691), but Cousins was waived on January 6 before it became fully guaranteed.

Cousins was officially under contract with the Bucks for 38 days, and the NBA also pays players for the two days they spend on waivers, so the veteran center was credited with 40 days of service. That means, due to proration, he was entitled to 40/174th of a minimum salary — that amount worked out to $607,285.

Situations like Cousins’ in Denver and Milwaukee are the most frequent examples of proration’s impact on NBA finances, but there are many more instances where it pops up.

Here’s a quick breakdown of several of those other instances of proration:

Mid-level and bi-annual exceptions: These exceptions begin to prorate on January 10, declining in value by 1/174th each day until the end of the regular season.
Trade kickers: If a player with a trade kicker in his contract is traded during the season, the kicker only applies to his remaining salary. Let’s say a player has a 15% trade kicker and an $8MM salary in his contract year and is dealt halfway through the season. His 15% trade kicker would only apply to the $4MM left on his deal, giving him a $600K bonus.
10-day contracts: A 10-day salary is prorated based on a full-season salary. Most players on 10-day contracts earn 10/174th of their minimum salary.
Signing bonuses: If a teams gives a player a signing bonus in a free agent contract, that bonus is prorated equally over the guaranteed seasons of the contract for cap purposes. For example, a $4MM signing bonus on a four-year contract would add $1MM to the player’s cap charge for each of the four seasons.
Salary floor calculations: When calculating a team’s payroll in relation to the league’s minimum salary floor, we count the salary that a team actually pays to a player, rather than the player’s cap hit. For instance, if a team traded for a player on a $12MM contract halfway through the season and kept him the rest of the way, he would count for $6MM toward that team’s salary floor, rather than $12MM.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

A previous version of this glossary entry was published in 2018.

The MLB Lockout Is Over

March 10th, 2022 at 2:44pm CST by Darragh McDonald

The MLB lockout is finally over! That means we’re about to experience an unprecedented free agent and trade frenzy leading up to Opening Day on April 7. Head on over to MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors on Twitter) to keep up with all of the action!

There are still many big-name free agents who will have to sign new contracts soon, from Carlos Correa to Freddie Freeman to Kris Bryant and many more.

The trade market will be active too! Matt Olson of the A’s is the top name expected to be on the move. The A’s, Reds, and Mets will likely be in the thick of it.

Check out MLB Trade Rumors for all of the latest hot stove action! Just before the lockout began, it was one of the wildest flurries of offseason activity in recent memory, and the post-lockout frenzy might take it up a notch! Follow the action on Facebook and Twitter.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Checking In On NBA’s Open Roster Spots

March 10th, 2022 at 8:00am CST by Luke Adams

Several of the NBA teams that had open roster spots following the trade deadline have since filled them, either with free agent signings, such as DeMarcus Cousins (Nuggets) and DeAndre Jordan (Sixers), or with promoted two-way players, like Caleb Martin (Heat) and Daishen Nix (Rockets).

However, there are still a number of clubs around the league with openings available, either on their standard 15-man roster or among their two-way contract slots.

Here, with the help of our roster counts page, is a look at the teams that have open roster spots as of March 10:

Teams with open 15-man roster spots:

Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics (2) *
Charlotte Hornets *
Cleveland Cavaliers *
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans *
Orlando Magic
Toronto Raptors *
Utah Jazz

* The teams marked with an asterisk each technically have full rosters as of today, but are carrying at least one player on a 10-day contract. We’re considering those roster spots “open” because those 10-day deals will soon expire.

Despite a series of signings since last month’s trade deadline, there are still 12 NBA teams that aren’t carrying 15 players on full-season standard contracts. However, four of those clubs have filled their open roster spot(s) with 10-day signings, and a fifth will join that group when the Cavaliers complete their reported 10-day deal with Moses Brown.

The Celtics are one team to watch here. When the second 10-day contracts for Malik Fitts and Kelan Martin expire next Monday night, Boston will either have to sign at least one of them to a rest-of-season contract or add another player within the next two weeks in order to get back to the league-mandated minimum of 14 players on standard deals.

Teams with open two-way spots:

Houston Rockets
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Following the trade deadline, five teams had open two-way contract slots. Four of those teams have since filled them — the Suns are the only holdout, having not carried a second two-way player since they released Chandler Hutchison in early January.

The Rockets have had an open two-way slot since they promoted Nix to the 15-man roster nearly a month ago, while the Kings‘ opening has existed since they waived Louis King on February 17.

Community Shootaround: John Wall’s Future

March 9th, 2022 at 2:43pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Rockets and John Wall agreed prior to the 2021/22 season that the point guard would sit out while the team worked to find a new home, both sides likely hoped the situation would be resolved by this point.

However, the February 10 trade deadline came and went without the Rockets finding a deal they liked. And now that March 1 (the deadline for a player to be waived while maintaining his playoff eligibility) has passed, it appears virtually certain that Wall will remain on Houston’s inactive list for the remainder of this season.

While that outcome may not be what the Rockets or Wall wanted, it doesn’t come as a major surprise. The point guard’s $44.3MM cap hit this season and $47.3MM player option for next season made it virtually impossible to move him for anything of value. There were rumors that Houston would’ve taken on Russell Westbrook‘s nearly identical contract in exchange for Wall if the Lakers were willing to throw in a future first-round pick or a swap, but L.A. had little interest in that trade structure.

This winter was also probably still too early for the Rockets and Wall to seriously explore a buyout. In recent years, we’ve seen Kemba Walker and Blake Griffin reach buyout agreements with two years left on their respective contracts, but they gave up significant chunks of money in those deals ($20MM for Walker and $13MM+ for Griffin). Wall likely isn’t eager to surrender that much of his remaining salary, and the Rockets may continue to hold out hope they can find a suitable trade partner.

It seems safe to assume this situation won’t be resolved before this season ends, but the Rockets and Wall will probably do all they can to avoid extending the standoff into the 2022/23 regular season. That means this offseason will be crucial.

In theory, once Wall’s contract is an expiring deal, it’ll be a little easier to move. But there still won’t be many teams willing to take on $47MM in salary for a 32-year-old guard who seemed to have lost a step due to injuries even before he sat out for an entire season.

The Rockets’ best hope is that the Lakers become more open to the idea of a Westbrook/Wall swap, but if that doesn’t happen, it’s hard to find a good trade fit. A package made up of Evan Fournier, Nerlens Noel, Walker, and Taj Gibson would work financially, but even if the Knicks are motivated to get off a couple of those contracts, I’m unconvinced they’d be satisfied with a return consisting only of Wall. Frankly, that sort of package might make more sense for Westbrook.

Pairing Wall with a more desirable trade candidates such as Christian Wood or Eric Gordon could be an option the Rockets explore, but the more salary they add to Wall’s $47MM+ cap hit, the trickier it’ll be to find a match — it’s not easy for most teams to package $50MM+ in player salaries for matching purposes.

If Houston is unable to make a trade, the two sides could get more serious about buyout discussions. A handful of teams would reportedly be interested in Wall if he were to become a free agent, so the Rockets could allow his agent to talk to those clubs to get a sense of how much they’d be willing to offer him — Walker and the Thunder took this route last year, so Kemba knew he’d have an $18MM deal on the table from the Knicks after giving back $20MM to Oklahoma City.

The Heat and Clippers are among the clubs that have been identified in recent months as possible suitors for Wall if he reaches free agency. David Aldridge of The Athletic added another intriguing team to that list today, reporting that Wall would be open to the idea of returning to the Wizards and has recently discussed that possibility with people close to him.

As Aldridge acknowledges, Wizards owner Ted Leonsis and star guard Bradley Beal would both have to sign off on a Wall reunion. Leonsis was “legit angry” in 2020 after a video surfaced of Wall flashing gang signs at his birthday party and was “ready for a divorce,” according to Aldridge. Additionally, there was a sense in D.C. that the Wall/Beal partnership had run its course by the time Wall was traded to Houston.

Still, while Beal isn’t necessarily advocating for the Wizards to reacquire Wall, he wouldn’t dismiss the idea out of hand, Aldridge says. Washington will be in the market for a point guard this summer, and the possibility of bringing back Wall for part of the mid-level exception would presumably be far more appealing than having him on a maximum-salary contract.

We want to know what you think. What does Wall’s future hold? Will the Rockets be able to make a trade this offseason? If so, which trade partner steps up to acquire the five-time All-Star? If not, how much should he be willing to give up in a buyout, and where would he sign as a free agent? Do you expect resolution this summer, or will Wall still be on Houston’s roster in the fall?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Grizzlies’ Postseason Outlook

March 8th, 2022 at 11:32am CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies have been one of the NBA’s most impressive overachievers in 2021/22. Oddsmakers projected Memphis to finish the season with a record around .500, but the team has already comfortably exceeded that projection, putting up a 44-22 record to date.

Even if they slump a little down the stretch, the Grizzlies look like a safe bet to exceed 50 wins and claim one of six guaranteed playoff spots in the West. If they continue playing like they have all season, they’d do much better than that — they’re on pace to win 55 games and claim the conference’s No. 2 seed.

The Grizzlies’ ascension has been led by Ja Morant, who has become a legitimate MVP contender, and Jaren Jackson Jr., a strong All-Defensive candidate who may receive Defensive Player of the Year consideration. Morant and Jackson have anchored a Memphis squad that ranks fifth in the NBA in offense and eighth in defense in 2021/22.

Sharpshooter Desmond Bane, who is averaging 17.8 PPG with a .412 3PT%, leads an impressive group of role players that also includes second-leading scorer Dillon Brooks (who has been limited to just 21 games due to a series of injuries), center Steven Adams, guards Tyus Jones and De’Anthony Melton, and forwards Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and Ziaire Williams.

Those players all have something in common — not a single one has celebrated his 30th birthday. At age 28, Adams is the oldest player on one of the NBA’s younger rosters.

As good as the Grizzlies have been this season, the conventional thinking is that young teams like this one generally have to pay their dues in the playoffs, gaining valuable postseason experience before they make a real breakthrough.

Two teams that Memphis has been compared to are good examples of this phenomenon — the up-and-coming Thunder team that featured Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka lost in the first round of the 2010 playoffs after winning 50 regular season games, then advanced to the Western Finals in 2011 and the NBA Finals in 2012. In 2013 and 2014, a Warriors team featuring Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green won just a single playoff series before they broke through for a championship in 2015.

On the other hand, it was just last spring that two rising young teams ended multiyear playoff droughts and made deep postseason runs — the Suns appeared in the NBA Finals in their first playoff appearance since 2010, while the Hawks made the Eastern Finals. It was the first time that players like Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton, Trae Young, and John Collins had appeared in the postseason, but they still managed to win multiple series.

With all that in mind, we want to know what you think of the Grizzlies’ playoff chances this spring. The projected matchups remain fluid, but if the season ended today, Memphis would face the winner of a Timberwolves/Clippers play-in game in round one, then the winner of a Warriors/Nuggets series in round two.

Is this Grizzlies team prepared to make a run to the Western Finals or the NBA Finals, or is a first- or second-round exit more likely? If you expect Memphis to bow out of the postseason early, is it more about the level of competition in the West, or do you think this squad is still at least a year or two (or a player or two) from becoming a true title contender?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the Grizzlies!

2021/22 NBA Reverse Standings Update

March 8th, 2022 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2021/22 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on the tentative 2022 draft order. Our 2021/22 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2022’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s current lottery format.

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year.

Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than those that made the postseason. Our reverse standings account for playoff seeding, though for now they assume that the Nos. 7 and 8 teams in each conference will earn those final two postseason spots. Since the NBA’s play-in format opens the door for the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds to sneak into the postseason, we may have to account for a little movement in the draft order at season’s end.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Charlotte’s pick says the Hornets will send their pick to the Hawks if it’s not in the top 18. As of today, the Hornets’ pick projects to be No. 15, meaning that selection wouldn’t change hands.

Currently, the Magic and Rockets are in a dead heat for the “top” spot in the reverse standings — they have matching 16-49 records, separating them from the 18-47 Pistons by two games. All three teams would have a 14% chance to receive the No. 1 overall pick if the lottery were based on today’s standings.

As we noted last week, the Lakers‘ spot in the reverse standings is worth monitoring closely down the stretch, since they’ll send their unprotected first-round pick to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 or to the Grizzlies if it ends up between 11-30. The 28-36 Lakers currently rank No. 11 in the reverse standings and are just a single game from moving into the top 10.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2022. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

Load More Posts