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Poll: Changes To The NBA’s Draft Lottery?

August 13th, 2013 at 8:55am CST by Luke Adams

In an Odds & Ends post yesterday, we passed along a piece written by Steve Kerr for NBA.com, in which the former Suns general manager and current TV analyst presented a few ideas for the NBA might alter its draft lottery.

The discussion isn't a new one, but it has ramped up again recently as teams like the Sixers and Jazz have chosen to position themselves for a high lottery pick in 2014 rather than attempting to contend for the postseason. Given how strong the 2014 draft class, led by Andrew Wiggins, is expected to be, it makes sense for teams who don't view themselves as legit contenders to position themselves to lose a lot of games, based on how the NBA's current lottery system works.

There doesn't seem to be a single potential solution that everyone can agree on, but some of Kerr's ideas are intriguing. Among them:

  1. Even out the lottery odds, so that each of the league's 14 non-playoff teams has a 1-in-14 shot at getting each draft slot from one to 14. In this scenario, Kerr says, the top five picks would be up for grabs, so the league's worst team would pick no lower than sixth.
  2. Reward the Nos. 7 and 8 playoff teams more. Kerr suggests that if there were more incentives to simply earn a postseason spot, even if it meant a quick first-round exit (think the No. 8 Bucks against the Heat this year), teams could make a greater effort to contend. He proposes that the eight teams who are eliminated in the first round of the playoffs could be given the top eight picks of the second round of the draft (Nos. 31-38).
  3. Regulation to alter lottery odds. In this scenario, the teams with the NBA's three worst records would be ineligible for a top-three pick, with the other lottery teams having a 1-in-11 chance. As such, there would at least be incentive to avoid being one of the league's absolute bottom-feeders.
  4. Deeper weighted lottery odds, meaning that the odds are determined in part (or entirely) by lottery teams' winning percentages against one another — the better you played against other lottery clubs, the better chance you have to land a top pick.
  5. Rotate the draft order annually, so that for every 30-year stretch, each of the league's teams picks once in every spot between No. 1 and No. 30. Although Kerr doesn't specify a pattern, I have to assume it would be randomized, so that a team could pick, for instance, 16th one year, 27th the next, and first the year after that. That would make more sense for competitive balance than having a team pick first one year, second the next, third after that, and so on.

What do you think? Do you like any of Kerr's suggestions, or do you think the lottery system is about as fair as possible the way it is? If you have your own ideas for changes the NBA should try, feel free to share them in the comments section.

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Poll: Will LeBron James Serve As NBPA President?

August 11th, 2013 at 6:11pm CST by Zachary Links

LeBron James is a pretty busy guy, but it's possible that his schedule is going to get even more crowded in the coming months.  In addition to chasing his third NBA title and his fifth MVP trophy, James could make a run at the presidency of the National Basketball Players Association.  James wouldn't be the first star player to hold the mantle, but he would be the first since Patrick Ewing was at the helm from September 1997-July 2001.  James knows that he would be stretched pretty thin if he goes through with it, but he sounds serious about the idea.

"I'm not sure I have the time to do it, but it's something I'm going to think about with my team and go from there," James said yesterday. "But I think we all can agree there's been a lot of transition in our union in the last couple of years. If it's not me in that seat then I hope it's someone who is comfortable with it and can do the job."

While the likes of Ewing, Isiah Thomas, Buck Williams, Alex English, Bob Lanier, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Cousy have served as the NBPA president, the last three men to spearhead the union (Michael Curry, Antonio Davis, and Derek Fisher) have had lighter workloads.  At the same time, the NBPA is still reeling from a serious scandal and a CBA that tilted things back in the favor of the owners.  Ultimately, will LeBron go through with it?

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Poll: Which Top 2014 Prospect Falls Before Next Year’s Draft?

August 10th, 2013 at 8:13pm CST by Spencer Lund

The 2014 NBA Draft is said to be the deepest in league history. Multiple prospects who would have gone as the top pick in previous drafts may now be relegated to a lower draft position. With such an influx of talent, Joel Brigham of HoopsWorld details some of the favorites in next summer's heralded class. 

Brigham attempts to sift through the brightest prospects to provide a blueprint for how the order might play out a year from now. The players he spotlights include incoming college freshman, Andrew Wiggins (Kansas), Julius Randle (Kentucky), Jabari Parker (Duke), Aaron Gordon (Arizona), Oklahoma State sophomore Marcus Smart and Australian Dante Exum. 

But even with these players as supposed locks for the lottery, things can change. As Brigham notes in his piece, last year's two prized players expected to be the top two picks in the 2013 Draft, Shabazz Muhammad and Cody Zeller, both fell after the following college basketball season concluded despite neither suffering a major injury. Muhammad even fell out of the top 10 all the way to the Timberwolves (by way of the Jazz) with the 14th pick.

It stands to reason that one of the players Brigham mentions will see his draft stock plummet before June even if all of them stay healthy. If all of these prospects stay healthy next season, and if Exum enters the draft without playing a year at an American university, which one will drop? 

 

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Poll: Which Summerlong Story Ends First?

August 10th, 2013 at 1:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

It seemed like we were finally on the verge of seeing the Sixers hire a head coach last night, when news broke that they'd offered the job to Brett Brown. Later we heard that people close to Brown were urging him to say no to GM Sam Hinkie and company, and as of this morning, there isn't a timetable for the Spurs assistant to give his answer to Philadelphia.

There was also movement yesterday on the Nikola Pekovic front, with Timberwolves executive Flip Saunders proclaiming that the team was progressing toward a deal with the restricted free agent on the heels of "positive talks" with the Pekovic camp. Of course, those kind of comments don't get at any specifics, and they present only one side of the story. The Wolves and agent Jeff Schwartz still appear to be going back and forth over money, with the team firm on a four-year, $48MM offer in response to Schwartz's opening gambit for a deal worth $15MM a year.

Pekovic is the top per-36-minute scorer still on the market, and recorded the fourth-best rebound rate among unsigned players, but even beyond those statistical measures, the burly 6'11" center is far and away the best talent without an NBA contract. He's a restricted free agent, and as he's watched comparable talent sop up most of the cap space around the league, the Wolves have emerged with plenty of leverage. The Sixers will enter their fifth month without a coach if they wait longer than another week, and though Brown seems like a rising star in the coaching ranks, there are only 30 NBA jobs, and there's no guarantee another opportunity will come around.

So, which of the two stories we've been tracking this summer will be resolved first? Cast your vote, and add your thoughts in the comments.

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Poll: Best Western Conference Coaching Hire

August 9th, 2013 at 4:36pm CST by Luke Adams

Yesterday, Hoops Rumors readers voted Brad Stevens of the Celtics the best offseason coaching hire in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers may demand a recount if and when they get their man in Spurs assistant Brett Brown, but for now we're heading west and exploring the other conference's offseason hires.

While there wasn't quite as much turnover as in the East, five Western teams replaced their head coaches, including three clubs who ranked in the top five in the Conference. Vinny Del Negro, George Karl, Lionel Hollins, Lindsey Hunter, and Keith Smart are out, and Doc Rivers (Clippers), Brian Shaw (Nuggets), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), and Michael Malone (Kings) are in.

So what do you think? Which of those five new coaches will turn out to be the best choice? Which Western Conference hiring did you like best?

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Poll: Best Eastern Conference Coaching Hire

August 8th, 2013 at 2:16pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the end of the 2012/13 regular season, an incredible 13 NBA teams have made coaching changes. 12 of those clubs have replaced their old head coach with a new one, while the Sixers' search for Doug Collins' successor continues.

Of the 12 teams to hire a new head coach so far, seven come from the Eastern Conference, including four playoff teams (the Hawks, Nets, Celtics, and Bucks). The East's new bench additions consist of a former college coach (Brad Stevens), respected assistants getting their first chance as head coaches (Mike Budenholzer, Steve Clifford), former head coaches (Mike Brown, Maurice Cheeks, Larry Drew), and even one coach whose playing career had barely ended when he was hired (Jason Kidd).

The seven hirings so far certainly represent a wide variety of philosophies, and will be facing very different expectations in the first season with their new clubs. For coaches like Stevens and Clifford, developing young talent will be crucial, while others, like Cheeks and Kidd, will be tasked with making some serious noise in the East right away.

So, today's poll question is this: Which Eastern Conference coaching hire did you like best? Which new head coach do you think will have the most success with his new team, however that success may be defined?

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Poll: Best One-Year Deal Of The Summer?

August 5th, 2013 at 8:51pm CST by Zachary Links

Earlier today, our own Chuck Myron compared this summer's one-year free agent deals to those of last summer and found a significant drop off in dollars.  Last summer, Chris Kaman cashed in a one-year, $8MM with the Mavs, Nick Young got $5.6MM from the Sixers, Chauncey Billups and the Clippers agreed to a $4.3MM pact, and J.J. Hickson signed for $4MM with the Blazers after a strong second half with Portland.  This year, it's a different story.

The complete list of 2013's one-year deals (excluding the ones for the veteran's minimum) is headlined by a deal that would have been in the middle of the pack last year:

These free agents may not have gotten as much money as they would have hoped, but they're all notable names who can boost their value for the summer of 2014 and beyond.  For the teams that signed them, they could be getting a tremendous value on a player who wants to impress in their walk year.  Based on how you expect them to perform while also taking their salary into account, we want to know how you rank these signings – from the club's perspective – from best to worst.

Click here for the results.

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Poll: Which Deal For An Injured Center Is Better?

August 3rd, 2013 at 4:28pm CST by Chuck Myron

Last night, the Heat agreed to sign a 25-year-old, 7'0" former No. 1 overall pick to a minimum-salary deal. Last month, the Cavaliers signed a 25-year-old, 7'0" center just one season removed from a Second Team All-NBA nod to a contract that's only guaranteed for $6MM. If Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum deliver on their potential, they'll be the steals of the year. Of course, that's a big "if" for a pair of players who just can't seem to stay healthy.

Bynum's knees have allowed him to play 392 games in his NBA career, while Oden has managed just 82. That's why Bynum is getting the larger deal, even though neither of them made an appearance in 2012/13. While there may be more reason for optimism with Bynum on the front end, there could be a greater consequences if he fails for the Cavs, who invested a sizable chunk of their cap space. With Oden, the Heat's worst case scenario is they're stuck paying the minimum salary this year and next (as well as the luxury tax bill on the expenditure, of course). If Bynum works out, the Cavaliers could wind up paying him $24.79MM over this season and next. If Oden returns to form, the Heat would have a force in the middle for just a little more than $1MM this year.

So, the question today is a simple one. Is Cleveland's investment in Bynum better than Miami's minimum-salary flier on Oden, or vice versa? Vote, and debate the issue in the comments.

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