With a 15.5 game lead over the Hawks in the Southeast and a 11.5 cushion separating them from the Pacers for the best record in the Eastern Conference, the Heat could probably afford to rest on their laurels a bit down the home stretch. However, with tonight's win over the Celtics, they now hold the second-longest winning streak in NBA history at 23. Right now, the Heat aren't chasing anyone except for the 1971/72 Lakers, who won 33 consecutive games.
Of course, rattling off another eleven straight victories won't be easy, but the Heat's schedule over the next few weeks is mostly made up of lottery teams. The schedule will feature the Cavs, Pistons, Bobcats, Magic, Bulls, Hornets, Spurs, Knicks, Bobcats (again), Sixers, and Bucks. The Spurs and Knicks should be the two toughest opponents of the bunch, but the Heat downed New York earlier this month at MSG, 99-93. It's your turn to weigh in.
Last week, we heard that the Jazz are expected to retain either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap, but not both. Both big men are headed for unrestricted free agency and the club will likely seek out a sign-and-trade deal for whichever player that they don't keep so that they don't come away empty-handed. In a perfect world, Utah would keep both in the fold, but with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter both figuring to see more playing time in the years to come, it doesn't make sense to cut back elsewhere to keep both players.
Regardless of which player you like more, it's certainly not a slam dunk decision. Yes, Jefferson makes significantly more this season than Millsap ($15MM versus $7.2MM) but both players are likely to command similar deals this offseason. They both have PERs of 20.6 and the age gap is only a matter of days.
Jefferson, at 6'10" can be plugged in at the center position easily, which can't be said for the 6'8" Millsap. Jefferson, however, hasn't developed as well on the defensive side of the ball as Utah would have liked. He's also not as tenacious of a rebounder as Millsap, who can help clean the glass as a complementary piece to Favors and Kanter.
Utah will have a tough decision on their hands this summer, and now you do as well, Hoops Rumors reader. Take your pick.
The Bucks made perhaps the most high-profile acquisition at a subdued trade deadline, bringing J.J. Redick into the fold as a third guard. He’s bolstered the team’s scoring punch off the bench, but he, like starting guards Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, could sign elsewhere in free agency this summer.
Each member of Milwaukee’s backcourt trio has a different contractual route out of town. Redick’s is the simplest, since his deal is up this summer, and he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. There have been indications that the team is prepared to offer him a five-year, $40MM contract to stick around.
Ellis can also elect to become an unrestricted free agent if he invokes the early-termination option on his contract to turn down the $11MM he’s due next season. Marc Stein of ESPN.com explained last night how there are conflicting opinions on which way he’ll go with that option.
Jennings is in the final year of his rookie-scale contract and is set for restricted free agency this summer. The Bucks can match any offer for Jennings as long as they extend him a one-year, $4.531MM qualifying offer, but Jennings has threatened to sign that qualifying offer, taking much less than market value in return for unrestricted free agency in 2014.
The Bucks have Bird rights for all three players, and they can give them all more money over more years than other teams can offer. Milwaukee has only about $30MM tied up for next season, and Ersan Ilyasova, in the first season of a five-year, $40MM contract, is their only major long-term commitment. The Bucks will have a potential extension for Larry Sanders to worry about this summer, but they appear to have plenty of payroll flexibility.
So, assuming Ellis invokes his option to get out of his deal, giving Milwaukee a decision to make regarding all three of its premier guards this summer, let us know which of them you think they should push to re-sign.
The last time we saw Derrick Rose in an NBA game was during Game One of the Bulls' opening playoff series against the 76ers last April. After tearing his ACL in that contest, Rose has been rehabbing all year, and has reportedly been medically cleared to return to action. Still, Rose remains uncertain that he'll play this season.
Even though Rose hasn't had any physical setbacks, he still must overcome a number of mental hurdles before he returns to the court. Few, if any, NBA players were able to replicate Rose's explosiveness and aggressiveness in the past, and recapturing that style of play on a surgically-repaired knee won't be easy, if it's possible at all. With just 18 games remaining in the regular season for the Bulls, it's unlikely we'd see Rose back to 100% in time for the postseason, no matter when he makes his 2012/13 debut.
Although the Bulls have publicly stated they aren't pressuring Rose to play, which he confirms, a number of executives around the league have questioned where the story on Rose's medical clearance came from, if not the Bulls. ESPN.com's Chris Broussard spoke to a number of execs about Rose's return, and the general consensus was that Chicago should be deferring to Rose's timetable. If he wants to return for the playoffs, one executive said, he should be given the opportunity, but if anything doesn't feel right, he should be shut down for the season. Another executive suggested that if Rose doesn't return by April 1st, he should probably be shut down.
The Bulls are currently fifth in the Eastern Conference, and with no other teams in the conference currently looming as a legit threat to the Heat, it's easy to argue that a Chicago club with a healthy Rose would immediately become the East's second-best team. But this late in the season, it's unlikely we'll see a Rose that's 100% healthy, so there's certainly some risk in bringing back a franchise player that's signed through 2017.
What do you think? Should Rose try to play before season's end, or should he focus on getting back to full health for 2013/14?
Earlier tonight we filled you in on a few bits of news regarding some of the league’s more notable players and the injuries they’re dealing with. Which one do you think is the most significant in terms of the playoff picture?
Hawks forward Josh Smith surprised many around basketball earlier this year when he said that he believes he should be in line for a max contract this summer. While the 27-year-old is undoubtedly in line for a lucrative deal, hoping for that amount of money seems overly optimistic. Our own Luke Adams recently crunched the numbers on max contract scenarios for this summer's top free agents and showed that a max deal from the Hawks could pay him $99.7MM over five years and a topped-out deal from another club could be worth $74MM over four years, depending on how much max salaries increase this summer. Smith is a welcome addition to any club, but will he get an annual average of about $20MM from the Hawks or $18.5MM from another team?
So far, the Hawks have maintained that they will not be giving the forward a max contract. Then again, the fact that they held on to Smith at the trade deadline means that there is at least a little room for a change of heart. The high-flying veteran has a better chance of getting a max deal elsewhere and while the chances of that may seem remote as well, there will be a number of teamswith cap space to burn this summer. And with all due respect, more than a few of these clubs might be desperate to make waves. The Bucks, Pistons, Cavs, Bobcats, and Jazz are just some of the clubs that will have the breathing room necessary to make a major pickup. Will an advantageous market be enough to net Smith the max deal that he seeks?
A recent surge by the Bucks, combined with slumps by the Sixers and Raptors, has all but ended any drama surrounding which Eastern Conference teams will make the postseason. But while the eight Eastern teams may be fairly locked in, there's still a heated race going on out west, where at least one of the Warriors, Jazz, Rockets, and Lakers won't make the cut.
Currently, the Warriors (34-27) have the best record of the four clubs, followed by the Rockets (33-28), Jazz (32-28), and Lakers (30-31). However, Golden State has been sliding down the Western Conference standings in recent weeks, having lost 10 of 13 games before a Monday night win against the Raptors.
Still, with only six of their remaining 21 games on the road, the Warriors are in good position to hang on to a playoff spot. The Rockets appear to have an inside track on a postseason berth as well, given their fairly manageable rest-of-season schedule. John Hollinger's playoff odds list the Warriors and Rockets at 85.3% and 98.4%, respectively.
Things are less certain for the Jazz and Lakers. Utah has lost four of five, and has a particularly tough schedule the rest of the way, including games against the Bulls, Knicks, Thunder, and Grizzlies in the next 10 days. Nonetheless, the Jazz hold a two and a half game lead on the Lakers, who remain on the outside looking in. That's why L.A.'s odds of earning a playoff spot are still just 45.3% compared to Utah's 61.3%, according to Hollinger's formula.
With six weeks remaining in the regular season, there's still plenty of time for the playoff picture to change significantly, and plenty of opportunities for teams to gain or lose ground — the Warriors, for instance, still have multiple games on the schedule against the Rockets and Lakers, as well as one against the Jazz. A 4-1 or 1-4 performance in those contests could be the difference in whether or not the team makes the playoffs.
In all likelihood though, three of these four teams will appear in the postseason, while the other club will be watching from home. Which do you think will be the odd team out?
Earlier this week, we learned that the 76ers are considering season-ending knee surgery for Andrew Bynum, which would virtually guarantee that the team's big summer acquisition won't see the court in 2012/13. Acquiring Bynum was a sizable risk to begin with for Tony DiLeo and Rod Thorn as the center was entering his walk year and the club had no guarantees that he would re-up with them. Now, the Sixers are faced with the reality that they may have traded away Andre Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, rookie Moe Harkless, and a protected first-round pick for nothing.
In business terms, Bynum could be viewed as a sunk cost. The 76ers paid a hefty price to land the hyper-talented big man and there's obviously a strong temptation to make the sacrifice worth something. However, if Bynum's knees are still cause for concern this summer, the Sixers might just be throwing good money after bad if they retain him. In a league where a banged-up Bynum could still command a massive deal, should the 76ers re-sign him or cut their losses?
The 76ers dropped their sixth straight game last night, an embarrassing 14-point home loss to the 16-41 Magic, and Philadelphia's latest defeat was a breaking point for head coach Doug Collins. As John Schuhmann of NBA.com details, Collins' post-game performance was one for the ages, as the Sixers coach questioned whether his players came back from the All-Star break ready to play and stressed that there's nothing wrong with the team's off-court preparation.
"I don’t want you to feel like I’m up here blaming. I don’t want you to think I’m making excuses," Collins finally said about 10 minutes into the press conference, but the comments that preceded that certainly suggested a significant amount of frustration with his players.
Chris Mannix of SI.com wrote a month ago that Collins was "apopletic" after one particularly bad loss, and that many executives around the league were wondering if the coach was approaching his breaking point, so Collins' post-game speech wasn't entirely unexpected. Mannix added at the time that the Sixers job appears to be Collins' as long as he wants it, but as Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News points out (via Twitter), coaches often don't last long after that sort of performance, meaning it could just be a matter of time until Collins and the Sixers "part ways."
The Sixers exercised their 2013/14 option on Collins prior to this season, so the coach will still have a year remaining on his contract at season's end. But as Grantland's Bill Simmons and SBNation's Tom Ziller noted last night (Twitterlinks), in three previous head coaching stints, Collins has never lasted longer than three years. He's currently in his third season in Philadelphia, and I'd imagine Sixers management will want to talk to Collins about the future after last night's performance.
So what do you think? Will this "rock-bottom" moment for the Sixers lead to Collins and the team parting ways, or will the two sides push through a disappointing stretch and continue their relationship beyond this season?