Rockets Rumors

Rockets Notes: No. 2 Pick, Mann, Front Office, Offseason

What the Rockets do with the second overall pick in the draft will go a large way in dictating the team’s subsequent moves, writes Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. The pick is the highest Houston has had since it drafted Yao Ming first overall in 2002, and Feigen writes that the team has a responsibility to put whatever player it selects in a position to succeed.

If the Rockets take Jalen Suggs or Jalen Green, that could mean finding a way to move Eric Gordon and/or John Wall to open up more playing time next to revelation Kevin Porter Jr. If they take Evan Mobley, it could mean not re-signing Kelly Olynyk. But moving on from those incumbent players isn’t mandatory. Feigen suggests that playing alongside veterans like Gordon, Olynyk and Wall could help the rookies ease into the NBA a learn under players who have been in big moments before.

We have more from the Rockets:

  • Florida guard Tre Mann‘s first NBA workout was with the Rockets, tweets Kelly Iko of The Athletic. The Rockets have two picks at 23 and 24 that could be in Mann’s draft range. The sweet-shooting point guard said he thought he’d fit well on the team.
  • The Rockets have moved quickly to remake their front office following the departure of Daryl Morey, Jonathan Feigen writes, and now the pressure will be on to produce results.  Part of what makes this brain trust unique, according to Feigen, is the lack of titles or an established hierarchy among the staff outside of the GM and assistant GM positions, especially among the scouts. For GM Rafael Stone, that’s an intentional decision. “It’s more about adding a different perspective or different thought process,” Stone said. “If you are trying to solve a complicated puzzle, which we absolutely are, you put together people from disparate backgrounds who’ve been successful in disparate paths because hopefully you’ll find a lot of intelligent people and maybe they can solve different puzzles in different ways.”
  • ESPN’s Bobby Marks breaks down the offseason outlook for the Rockets. This includes Stone opening the doorway to the possibility of trading out of the number two spot. “It’s not necessarily that you’re looking to do that,” says Stone, “but you shouldn’t foreclose any option.” Marks also identifies the paths Stone has taken to rebuild the roster following the trades of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, including – most notably – their sign-and-trade deal for Christian Wood and acquisition of Porter.

Community Shootaround: Rockets Lottery Pick

The Pistons hit the jackpot in the lottery on Tuesday, getting the top pick for the first time in over 50 years.

They essentially flipped positions with the Rockets, who finished with the worst regular-season record, as Detroit entered the lottery in the No. 2 slot.

Pistons general manager Troy Weaver didn’t immediately commit to Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, who has been considered by most pundits to be the top prospect in the draft.

Weaver blew up the Pistons’ roster in his first year on the job, so it’s not out of the question he’ll go outside the box and draft another player or trade down. But the most likely outcome is that the Pistons will select the player who has drawn comparisons to Luka Doncic, Penny Hardaway and another former Detroit lottery pick, Grant Hill.

That leaves Houston in an interesting spot. There’s three players generally considered candidates for the second spot – Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, USC big man Evan Mobley and G League shooting guard Jalen Green.

The most notable players on the Rockets’ roster are oft-injured guards John Wall and Eric Gordon, big man Christian Wood and All-Rookie First Team forward Jae’Sean Tate. So, there’s needs across the board and the rebuilding team could go in any number of directions.

If they want a solid two-player point guard with superior leadership skills, they could choose Suggs. If they want to a highly-skilled power forward built for the modern NBA game, they could grab Mobley. If they’re seeking a prolific scorer on the wing, they could snare Green.

That leads us to our question of the day: Assuming the Pistons take Cade Cunningham with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which player should the Rockets select at No. 2?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Stone Expects To Add Star Player

Rockets general manager Rafael Stone is being coy with how he’ll approach the No. 2 overall pick in the draft and even hinted he’d be open to trading it, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. However, Stone does seem excited about adding a cornerstone to his roster. “The goal is to find a star player,” he said. “When you bring in young players especially, you’re really looking for star potential. I wouldn’t use the word ‘expect.’ I don’t want to put that pressure on a player. I do think we’re likely to get somebody really, really talented if we pick the pick.”

2021 NBA Draft Picks By Team

It wasn’t a great night for the Thunder at Tuesday’s draft lottery. The team had about a two-in-three chance that its own first-round pick would land in the top five and nearly a 50-50 chance that Houston’s pick would slide to No. 5, allowing OKC to swap the No. 18 selection for it. Instead, the Rockets kept their own pick and the Thunder’s selection slipped to No. 6.

Still, no NBA team has more draft picks in 2021 than the Thunder, who control three first-round selections and three more second-rounders.

The Pelicans, Pistons, Knicks, and Nets join them as teams that hold at least four draft picks this year. Those five clubs currently control 23 of the 60 picks in the 2021 draft, so it’s probably safe to assume they’ll be active on the trade market before or during the draft.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2021 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 60 picks by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (6): 6, 16, 18, 34, 36, 55
  • Brooklyn Nets (5): 27, 29, 44, 49, 59
  • Detroit Pistons (4): 1, 37, 42, 52
  • New Orleans Pelicans (4): 17, 35, 43, 51
  • New York Knicks (4): 19, 21, 32, 58
  • Houston Rockets (3): 2, 23, 24
  • Toronto Raptors (3): 4, 46, 47
  • Orlando Magic (3): 5, 8, 33
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 11, 56, 57
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 13, 54, 60
  • Philadelphia 76ers (3): 28, 50, 53

Teams with two picks:

  • Golden State Warriors: 7, 14
  • Sacramento Kings: 9, 39
  • San Antonio Spurs: 12, 41
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 10, 40
  • Atlanta Hawks: 20, 48

Teams with one pick:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 3
  • Washington Wizards: 15
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 22
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 25
  • Denver Nuggets: 26
  • Utah Jazz: 30
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 31
  • Chicago Bulls: 38
  • Boston Celtics: 45

Teams with no picks:

  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers

Pistons Win 2021 Draft Lottery; Rockets, Cavs, Raptors In Top Four

With Tuesday night’s lottery results now official, the top 14 slots for the 2021 NBA draft have been set. The lottery order is as follows:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers
  4. Toronto Raptors
  5. Orlando Magic
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder
  7. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

It’s a huge win for the Pistons and for general manager Troy Weaver, who had one of the best drafts of any NBA team in 2020, nabbing Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Saben Lee. This time around, Detroit is in position to draft Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, who is widely considered to be the No. 1 prospect in the 2021 draft class.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link), the plan is for Cunningham to visit just one team before the July 29 draft: the Pistons.

The Rockets, like Detroit, entered the night with the best odds at landing a top-four pick (52.1%). And while they ended up at No. 2 rather than No. 1, it’s a major relief for the franchise, which would have had to send its pick to the Thunder in exchange for the No. 18 selection if it had landed outside of the top four.

Rather than falling out of the lottery, Houston is poised to take its pick from a top tier of prospects that includes Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga. Whichever player the Rockets select figures to become the centerpiece of the team’s rebuild.

The Cavaliers and Raptors moved up in the lottery standings, from fifth and seventh respectively, into the top four. As we noted in our Cavs offseason preview earlier today, Cleveland hasn’t missed on any of its recent lottery picks, but also hasn’t landed a prospect who looks capable of being the club’s franchise player. The Cavs may get that opportunity in 2021.

As for the Raptors, after making the playoffs for seven straight seasons and winning a title in 2019, they had a disastrous 2020/21 campaign, displaced from their home in Toronto due to the coronavirus pandemic and dealing with constant COVID-19 and injury issues. They’re now in position to add an intriguing young player to a core that already includes Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby.

Although none of the teams that moved into the top four did so from the bottom half of the lottery, it’s worth noting that the No. 7 spot in the lottery standings has been especially lucky since the NBA revamped the format three years ago. The Pelicans moved up to No. 1 from that position in 2019, allowing them to draft Zion Williamson. In 2020, the Hornets moved from No. 7 to No. 3, putting them in position to select eventual Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball. Now the Raptors have moved up from that spot too.

The night’s biggest losers include the Timberwolves and Bulls, who would have held onto their lottery picks if they had moved into the top three and the top four, respectively. Instead, those picks will be sent to the Warriors and Magic at No. 7 and No. 8.

The Magic‘s own pick and the Thunder‘s selection slipped two spots as a result of the lottery — they’ll pick at No. 5 and No. 6.

It was still a good night for the Magic, who control two of the top eight picks in a strong draft, but the outcome wasn’t great for Oklahoma City. The Thunder entered the evening with the potential to come away with two top-five picks. Instead, they’ll have zero, having lost the ability to swap first-rounders with Houston.

The 9-14 picks in the draft lottery standings remained unchanged.

2021 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

The 2021 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Clippers and Suns. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of five prospects widely considered to be a level above the rest of the class. Cade Cunningham leads the way, followed in some order by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:


Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2021 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four (47.9% chance).
  2. Detroit Pistons
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
    • Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three (27.6% chance).
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (20.3% chance).
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.


Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Pistons, and Magic have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Thunder (45.1%), Cavaliers (45.1%), Timberwolves (37.2%), and Raptors (31.9%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.


Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades have the potential to shake up Tuesday’s lottery results in a significant way, potentially altering the course of multiple franchises. Here are the details on those deals:

Rockets/Thunder

The Thunder have the ability to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for the Rockets‘ first-rounder, but only if Houston’ selection lands outside the top four.

Since Oklahoma City’s own pick is also a lottery selection, there are essentially just two scenarios in play here:

  1. The Rockets’ pick lands in the top four and Houston keeps it. The Thunder would keep their own pick, along with the Heat’s pick at No. 18 (52.1% chance).
  2. The Rockets’ pick lands at No. 5 and the Thunder swap the No. 18 pick for it (47.9% chance).

The Thunder’s ability to swap picks with the Rockets won’t carry over to next season if Houston’s pick is protected.

Timberwolves/Warriors

The Timberwolves owe the Warriors their top-three protected first-round pick, so Golden State will receive the pick if it lands at No. 4 or lower. Technically, it can’t end up at No. 5, but 1-4 and 6-10 are all possibilities.

There’s a 27.6% chance this pick lands in the top three and remains with Minnesota, with a 72.4% chance Golden State gets it. It has a 9.6% chance of moving up to No. 4, and a 62.8% chance of ending up between 6-10. No. 7 (29.7%) or No. 8 (20.6%) are the most likely outcomes.

If the Wolves’ pick lands in the top three and is protected, they’d owe the Warriors their unprotected first-round pick in 2022.

Bulls/Magic

The Bulls owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. It can’t land between 5-7, but Orlando will get it if it ends up in the 8-12 range.

There’s a 20.3% chance the pick will move into the top four, allowing Chicago to keep it, with a 79.7% chance Orlando gets it. No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (36.2%) are, by far, the most likely outcomes.

If the Bulls’ pick lands in the top four and is protected, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-round pick in 2022.


Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-camera representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (former player)
  2. Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (former player)
  3. Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Nazr Mohammed (OKC Blue general manager / Thunder pro scout)
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Koby Altman (general manager)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
  7. Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
  8. Chicago Bulls: Marc Eversley (general manager)
  9. Sacramento Kings: Monte McNair (general manager)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Swin Cash (VP of basketball operations and team development)
  11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges
  12. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (managing partner)
  13. Indiana Pacers: Nancy Leonard (former Pacers executive / widow of Hall-of-Famer Slick Leonard)
  14. Golden State Warriors: Rick Welts (president / COO)

Lottery Format:

This will be the third year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results in the last two years have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. If those seventh and eighth lottery seeds get lucky again this year, it’d be great news for Toronto and Chicago.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.


Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stephen Silas Talks Growing Up In Basketball

  • Rockets head coach Stephen Silas spoke with Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle about how growing up around the NBA as the son of  former player and coach Paul Silas informed his appreciation of the game. “Being Paul Silas’ son has always been great for me, and it obviously comes with challenges for me but I never shied away from that,” Stephen said.

Ball, Edwards, Haliburton Head All-Rookie Team

LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Jae’Sean Tate and Saddiq Bey comprised this year’s All-Rookie First Team, the NBA announced on Thursday in a press release.

Ball, who was named Rookie of the Year on Thursday, led first-year NBA players in assists (6.1 APG) and steals (1.59 SPG) and ranked second in scoring (15.7 PPG) and rebounding (5.9 RPG) for the Hornets. Edwards, the No. 1 pick in the draft by the Timberwolves, averaged a rookie-high 19.3 PPG.

The Kings’ Haliburton ranked third among rookies in scoring (13.0 PPG) and second in assists (5.3 APG). Bey, the 19th overall pick, made a rookie-high 175 three-pointers for the Pistons. Tate, who went undrafted in 2018 and played in Australia last season, averaged 11.3 PPG and 5.3 PPG for the Rockets.

Ball and Edwards were the only unanimous First Team selections, receiving 99 of 99 potential First Team votes. Haliburton got 98, while Bey had 63 and Tate received 57.

Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley narrowly missed out on the top five, having earned 51 votes for the First Team.

Here are both All-Rookie teams in full, with their voting point totals notes in parentheses. Players received two points for a First Team vote and one point for a Second Team vote.

2020/21 All-Rookie First Team:

2020/21 All-Rookie Second Team:

Nuggets guard Facundo Campazzo (42), Magic guard Cole Anthony (40), and Warriors center James Wiseman (24) were among the players who just missed the cut. Nine other players received votes — you can view the full voting results right here.

Rafael Stone Talks Upcoming Draft, Scouting, John Wall, More

Rockets general manager Rafael Stone sat down for an extended conversation with Kelly Iko of The Athletic as the team heads into a major offseason, looking to continue a massive roster overhaul.

After being compelled into trading All-Star guard James Harden to Brooklyn, an injury-plagued Houston team finished with a 17-55 record during its inaugural season under new head coach Stephen Silas.

In the interview, Stone discusses a variety of topics, including how he and his front office team are prepping for what could be a loaded 2021 draft, the way he and his staff evaluate talent in an effort to land under-the-radar depth, and what he projects as the futures of two of the team’s priciest veteran players.

The full story is well worth a read, as Stone also touches on his relationship with team owner Tilman Fertitta, how the team dealt with COVID-19-related challenges during the 2020/21 season, his chemistry with Silas, and more.

Here are some highlights:

On taking an open-minded approach to talent in the upcoming 2021 draft:

“I’m definitely not geared towards any one type of player; we’re just going to try and find the player or players that we think have the potential to be the best. We’re not a team in our iteration that should be focused on this position versus that position, A. But B, I don’t know that any team is generally doing that in the draft. I think the draft is where you’re trying to find just good talented basketball players, I think, where you start thinking about real positionality and holes is more free agency.”

On Houston’s scouting process:

“It’s definitely a collective effort. It’s not just me, I’d say I do my best to use as many different sources of information as I can… I watch a ton. I try to watch them in different situations, I try to envision how they’ll look in our system, both offensively and defensively… My way of thinking about it is you try to funnel. If you can get people who think about basketball differently excited about the same guy, then maybe that’s an interesting guy. When you get to undrafted free agents, or the end of the second round in some respects, you can take a little bit more risk.”

On pricey point guard John Wall‘s long-term fit with Houston:

“John was great… Highly competitive guy who’s nice, super high basketball IQ. We were talking to our young guys the other day, and they were laughing about how John looks like he’s half-listening, and then they’ve got questions and he’s walking them through A, B, C through quadruple Z. He’s been around long enough now. He understands his position, he understands his teammates’ positions, he understands what the defense is doing. Having guys around like that, that’s just about what a pro is supposed to do; you’re supposed to get the whole thing… It’s great for young guys to see that because that’s the level of knowledge that you should attain. You’re not going to have that as a rookie.”

On talented swingman Kevin Porter Jr.:

“His ballhandling is exceptional. That’s not a secret. His passing is really good, too. It did seem like he was miscast playing off the ball. So maybe we were a little more excited about him because we thought that we could maybe unlock a higher upside by moving him onto the ball. We might have been more excited about him than other teams. I’m not in their room, I don’t know what other teams were doing, so I have no idea. But we really liked him.”

2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

The Rockets entered the 2020/21 league year with – at the very least – playoff aspirations. The team was coming off a disappointing second-round exit in the 2020 postseason, but after adding Christian Wood in free agency, there was a sense that if everything broke right, the roster still had enough talent to compete for a top spot in the West and make a deep postseason run.

Instead, injuries, COVID-19 issues, and James Harden‘s trade demand tanked Houston’s season almost before it began. The club managed to tread water for a little while, even after trading Harden in January, and was above .500 (11-10) as late as February 5. But injuries and a lack of star talent eventually caught up to the Rockets, who went into full-fledged seller mode by the trade deadline and finished the season by losing an incredible 45 of their last 51 games.


The Rockets’ Offseason Plan:

Lottery night will be crucial for the Rockets, who have slightly better than 50/50 odds to keep their top-four protected pick. If that selection lands at No. 5, Houston would have to send it to Oklahoma City in exchange for No. 18. If it ends up in the top four, the Rockets will be in prime position to draft a long-term cornerstone for their rebuild.

Either way though, the Rockets will have three first-round selections, including two in the 20s. Whether they use all of those picks or end up trading one or two, general manager Rafael Stone will be under pressure to maximize their value. Virtually all of the most valuable assets the team received in the Harden deal were future picks and swaps, so Stone is betting on his ability to draft well and perhaps uncover some hidden gems during the next few seasons.

Without a ton of cap flexibility, the Rockets appear unlikely to be particularly active on the free agent market. Waiting until the second or third wave of free agency to hunt for veterans on bargains makes sense for the club — those vets could contribute in the short term and perhaps be flipped for assets at next year’s trade deadline.

Stone figures to be more active in trade talks, with John Wall, Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, and Danuel House among the players who should be available for the right return. However, Wall and Gordon are coming off injuries and have pricey salaries, which will make it tricky for the Rockets to find decent value for them.


Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • D.J. Wilson ($6,422,171 qualifying offer / $13,644,840 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $13,644,840

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($8,992,200)
  • No. 23 overall pick ($2,353,320)
  • No. 24 overall pick ($2,259,240)
  • Total: $13,604,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • John Wall (veteran)
  • Danuel House (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With only about $89MM in guaranteed money on their books, the Rockets could theoretically have a little cap room this offseason. However, the non-guaranteed salaries for Tate and Martin will almost certainly be guaranteed and the cap holds for their first-round picks will significantly cut into their projected space.

It’s possible Houston will make a trade or two to reduce team salary and generate cap room, but for the time being, we’re assuming the club will operate over the cap, which would allow the front office to keep its various exceptions and to retain Olynyk’s Bird rights.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $8,180,351
  • Trade exception: $5,019,920
  • Trade exception: $2,174,318
  • Trade exception: $1,780,152
  • Trade exception: $103,894

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.