- With free agency around the corner, Rockets big man Kelly Olynyk said his newfound familiarity with the team and its staff will be a factor in his offseason decision. “I know the coaching staff here, the organization, the people,” Olynyk said (video link via Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston). “I know I have a role here if I decide to come back and I think they would welcome it.”
As has been the case for much of the 2020/21 season, the Rockets have a crowded injury report today, with 10 of the team’s players having been ruled out for the regular season finale in Atlanta.
However, according to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (via Twitter), none of those 10 players are dealing with long-term injuries that will hinder their ability to conduct offseason training or participate in Summer League games.
That includes Khyri Thomas, who underwent an MRI this weekend after he “tweaked” his Achilles on Friday (Twitter link via Feigen). According to head coach Stephen Silas, that Achilles injury isn’t severe, which bodes well for Thomas and the Rockets — the young swingman just signed a four-year contract with the team on Friday.
Here’s more out of Houston:
- Cameron Reynolds will only spend three days (two games) with the Rockets before his rest-of-season contract expires, but even that brief stint with his hometown team means a lot to the Pearland, Texas native, as Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston relays. “I’ll never forget this,” Reynolds said, adding that several family members were in attendance to watch him on Friday. “I’ll never forget being able to play for the Houston Rockets. This is huge for me.”
- After going undrafted in 2018, Jae’Sean Tate played for a new team in each of his first three professional seasons, so he’s especially appreciative of being able to enter the 2021 offseason knowing he’ll remain under contract with the Rockets and won’t have to find a new home. “It’s kind of surreal,” Tate said, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. “This is what I’ve been dreaming of. This is what I’ve been working so hard for, to come in on the back end of my first year. It went by so fast; I feel I just walked into training camp. Also, it just makes me hungrier because I know there are so many things I can work on and get better at.”
- Armoni Brooks, who went undrafted in 2019, didn’t make his NBA debut until last month, but he has played big minutes (25.6 MPG) for an injury-ravaged Rockets team and his 54 three-pointers are the most ever by any NBA player through the first 19 games of his career. In a separate Houston Chronicle story, Feigen looks at what’s next for Brooks, who is shifting his focus to summer workouts.
The multi-year contract the Rockets gave to Khyri Thomas on Friday has no guarantees beyond this season, ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets. The contract is non-guaranteed for the next two seasons and includes a team option for the 2023/24 season but the contract is still non-guaranteed even if that option is exercised. However, Thomas did receive $250K for this season, which is $217K more than the prorated minimum.
- Rockets guard Eric Gordon has two more guaranteed years remaining on his contract but he admits he doesn’t know what kind of future he has with the rebuilding organization, as he told Kelly Iko of The Athletic. “I’ve been on losing teams before, but I’ve never been a part of a season where we lose 20 in a row. … So my relationship with (GM Rafael Stone and coach Stephen Silas) is fine, but as I said, we’ll have to see what real direction that they want to go this off-season,” he said. “They could have a lot of new guys, whether they’re younger or older, you just never know.”
MAY 14: Thomas’ contract is official, tweets Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
MAY 13: New Rockets shooting guard Khyri Thomas will ink a multiyear deal with Houston, per Kelly Iko and Alykhan Bijani of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Houston first added Thomas on a 10-day deal via hardship extension last week, and since that time he has proven to be a bright spot in what has been a tough season for the Rockets, forced to part with their signature star James Harden earlier this year. Houston possesses the worst record in the NBA, with a 16-54 mark thus far. In so doing, the team have given itself the best odds at nabbing the top pick in what is supposed to be a loaded 2021 draft.
The No. 38 pick in the 2018 NBA draft out of Creighton, Thomas spent his first two seasons as a reserve with the Pistons, averaging just 7.5 MPG and 7.6 in 2018/19 and 2019/20, respectively. In seven games (all starts) for the Austin Spurs during the 2020/21 NBAGL season, the 6’3″ guard averaged 13.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 1.0 SPG.
In four games (including one start) with the injury-depleted Rockets, Thomas has logged major minutes. He is averaging 16.3 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.8 RPG, 2.3 SPG, and 0.8 BPG in 30.8 MPG. He boasts a shooting line of .436/.308/1.000.
Thomas’ 10-day contract is technically scheduled to run through the end of the season, so Houston will have to terminate it early in order to re-sign him to a new deal. A multiyear contract wouldn’t be possible if he was still occupying an extra roster spot using the hardship exception, but the team has waived DaQuan Jeffries in order to create room on the 15-man roster for Thomas.
12:55pm: Reynolds’ deal is official, according to a press release from the Rockets. Even though there are just three days left in the regular season, Reynolds’ contract is classified as a 10-day contract because it was completed using the hardship exception.
11:32am: The Rockets will sign swingman Cameron Reynolds for the rest of the regular season, tweets Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston.
With Khyri Thomas expected to land a multi-year contract, Reynolds will likely take Thomas’ place as Houston’s second hardship signing. Thomas will inherit the regular roster spot vacated by DaQuan Jeffries, who was waived on Thursday.
Reynolds, 26, got into three games for the Spurs this season after signing a 10-day contract in late March. He played just six total minutes and wasn’t offered a second 10-day deal. Reynolds played for the Austin Spurs in the G League bubble.
His NBA career began during the 2018/19 season with the Timberwolves, as he averaged 5.0 points and 1.6 rebounds in 19 games. Reynolds signed a two-way contract with the Bucks in the summer of 2019, but didn’t appear in any games for Milwaukee.
- Rockets guard Eric Gordon, absent with a groin injury since March 11, will not rejoin the team for its final two games of the 2020/21 season, writes Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. “Eric was doing everything he could to come back, working out with [assistant coach John Lucas] and working out with the performance team,” head coach Stephen Silas said. “Although I would have loved to see Eric play, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.”
- Rockets small forward Danuel House has been able to showcase his versatile game beyond just being a reliable long-range sniper during an otherwise frustrating Houston season, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle.
Rockets swingman DaQuan Jeffries has been waived by the club, tweets Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston. Across 13 games (including three starts) with the Rockets, Jeffries averaged 4.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.2 APG in 20.1 MPG.
Prior to his stint with the Rockets, Jeffries appeared in 18 games (including two starts) for the Kings this year, averaging 3.5 PPG and 1.6 RPG in 12.9 MPG.
As an undrafted rookie out of Tulsa on a two-way contract, the 6’5″ 23-year-old played in 13 games with Sacramento during the 2019/20 season. Over 27 games (including 22 starts) for the Kings’ G League affiliate, the Stockton Kings, Jeffries averaged 16.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.9 APG and 1.2 SPG across 31.0 MPG that same season.
The move opens up a spot on Houston’s 15-man roster, which the team will use to sign Khyri Thomas to a multiyear contract.
The Rockets have lost an incredible 43 of their last 48 games, will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record, and will only have a 52.1% chance to keep their first-round pick, which is top-four protected. However, team owner Tilman Fertitta tells ESPN’s Tim MacMahon that he remains bullish on the future of the franchise.
“I never thought I could feel this good after winning only 16 games,” Fertitta said of his 16-53 club. “I never thought I could feel this good when I’ve been so upset about losing. But when I look at all the draft picks that we have and the future, I’m just happy. I know it’s unusual to feel this good with your coach (Stephen Silas) and your general manager (Rafael Stone), but I do.”
If the Rockets’ 2021 first-round pick falls outside of the top four, they’ll have to send it to the Thunder in exchange for Miami’s first-round selection. Houston also owes two more future first-rounders to Oklahoma City, in 2024 (top-four protected) and 2026 (top-four protected).
However, the Rockets have acquired several other first-round picks and swaps in various trades, including the James Harden blockbuster — they’ll have Portland’s and Brooklyn’s first-round picks this year, as well as first-rounders from the Nets, Pistons, Wizards, and Bucks in future drafts. Fertitta expressed a willingness to be patient waiting for those extra selections to pay dividends.
“It could be 2027 that we get a top-five pick that ends up being the next greatest player,” Fertitta told MacMahon. “We don’t know, but my people have shown all they’ve done so far is made the right decision, and I’m proud of all of them. I’m proud of the basketball ops people and I’m proud of Silas, because they keep showing me they’re doing the right things.”
Fertitta specifically credited Stone for the acquisitions of Christian Wood and young building blocks like Kevin Porter and Kenyon Martin Jr. He also praised Silas for the work he has done dealing with adversity this season and developing those young players. The Rockets’ owner added that he doesn’t have a specific timeline in mind for the club becoming a legit contender again.
“I can tell you this: I’m going to be patient,” Fertitta told ESPN. “I know my basketball guys know what they’re doing. We’re not going to go do something stupid to try to get into the playoffs next year that then will prevent us from competing for a championship in a couple years. … I think we’ll be much better next year and we’ll be much better the following year and then we’ll be much better the following year.”
Since Kelly Olynyk arrived in Houston, the Rockets have won just four of 26 games, but the veteran big man has played some of the best basketball of his career during that stretch, averaging 18.9 points and 8.6 rebounds on .561/.382/.850 shooting in 24 games (31.7 MPG). That hasn’t been lost on him, as Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle details.
“I’ve had a good opportunity here to play my game,” Olynyk said. “I’ve come in to help these young guys. Their style of offense is great for me. … It definitely factors in (to be) somewhere you can be yourself, play basketball the way you’ve always played. It’s been great here. I’ve loved it, the opportunities, the players, the coaches. I’ve really enjoyed it. It’s obviously shown on the court.”
Olynyk will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, and Rockets head coach Stephen Silas believes the 30-year-old would be a fit in Houston going forward, per Feigen. While Olynyk sounds interested in that possibility, he acknowledged that he’ll have to consider a number of factors once he reaches the open market.
“Obviously, money is a factor at some point,” Olynyk said. “But fit, how you’re fitting, style of play. Obviously, you want to win, but you also want to help somebody win. You don’t want to go and kind of get lost in a shuffle. You want to go and contribute and help a team grow and win and do something special. … Then, obviously, you’ve got to look at one year versus two or three or four. There’s a bunch of factors that weigh into it. You try to make the best decision that you can.”
Here’s more from around the Southwest:
- Mavericks rookie guard Tyrell Terry, who has been out since the All-Star break for personal reasons, said on Instagram this week that he plans to be “back and better than before,” as Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News tweets. While it’s not clear when Terry will be available again, his Instagram post included the message, “I will see y’all soon!”
- Second-year Pelicans center Jaxson Hayes has made some positive strides this season, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com, who says Hayes’ next step for continued growth is to establish more consistency. The big man will make $5.35MM in 2021/22 and New Orleans will have to decide later this year whether to pick up his $6.8MM option for 2022/23.
- Given how well the Grizzlies have performed without some key players for long stretches of the season, anything less than a playoff spot should be considered a disappointment at this point, says Mark Giannotto of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. The way the Grizzlies close the season will also determine how they move forward in the offseason, Giannotto opines.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.