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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

December 21st, 2020 at 9:22am CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on Tuesday, so it’s time to get serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.

It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.

We’ll wrap things up by heading to the Southwest…

Dallas Mavericks

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Mavericks poll.

New Orleans Pelicans

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Pelicans poll.

Houston Rockets

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Rockets poll.

Memphis Grizzlies

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Grizzlies poll.

San Antonio Spurs

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Spurs poll.

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): Over (73.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): Over (57.9%)
  • Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Under (61.6%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): Under (68.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): Over (53.9%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Over (79.1%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (51.0%)
  • Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): Over (60.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): Under (60.7%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Under (50.7%)
  • Orlando Magic (31.5 wins): Under (73.5%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (26.5 wins): Over (56.3%)
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Harden Not Distracting Rockets From Early Goals

December 20th, 2020 at 1:38pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum
  • Rockets head coach Stephen Silas has said that reports of All-NBA guard James Harden‘s various possible trade destinations have not distracted the club, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. The superstar has been linked to the Nets, Sixers, and Heat, among other clubs, as he hopes for a trade. “He has been committed since he’s been here,” Silas said. “He’s been great in practice, good to talk to, listening, trying, asking good questions, pulling me aside and telling me the things that he sees.”
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Rockets Sign, Waive Josh Reaves

December 19th, 2020 at 9:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets signed free agent wing Josh Reaves to a contract and waived him shortly thereafter, as our JD Shaw reports (via Twitter).

Reaves, 23, signed a two-way contract with the Mavericks in 2019 shortly after going undrafted out of Penn State. The former Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year logged just 28 total minutes in four games with Dallas, but was a full-time starter for the Texas Legends in the G League, averaging 13.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 2.0 SPG in 37 games (30.6 MPG).

It’s not uncommon for NBA teams to waive certain players right after signing them at this time of year — those transactions are generally completed with the G League in mind. If Reaves signed an Exhibit 10 contract, which seems likely, Houston will have his NBAGL rights and he’ll be in line for a bonus worth up to $50K if he plays for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers.

Of course, with the G League season still up in the air, it’s unclear whether or not the Vipers will even play this year, but the signing (and waiving) of Reaves suggests the Rockets’ affiliate hasn’t ruled out participating in the proposed NBAGL bubble.

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Rockets Waive Gerald Green, Others

December 19th, 2020 at 9:30pm CST by Luke Adams

9:30pm: All the roster moves detailed below are now official, per the Rockets and RealGM’s transactions log.

11:46am: Veteran swingman and Houston native Gerald Green will be among the players waived by the Rockets today as they ready their roster for the regular season, reports Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.

Green has spent most of the last three years with the Rockets, though he was unable to play at all during the 2019/20 season due to a broken foot. He signed a non-guaranteed deal with Houston prior to training camp and was a candidate to make the roster, but cap constraints will make it impossible for now.

The Rockets only have enough room under their hard cap to carry 14 players for the time being, and Chris Clemons will be one of those players since his salary will now be guaranteed due to his season-ending Achilles tear. Houston still had some flexibility to cut a non-guaranteed player besides Green, but the team – unsurprisingly – will hang onto DeMarcus Cousins, Jae’Sean Tate, and Bruno Caboclo ahead of the 34-year-old wing.

The Rockets are open to bringing back Green later in the season if other roster moves make it possible, a source tells Feigen.

Meanwhile, Houston will also waive Trey Mourning and William McDowell-White, according to Feigen. McDowell-White just signed a two-way contract this week, but the plan is for Brodric Thomas to fill that two-way slot — he’ll have his Exhibit 10 deal converted into a two-way contract, says Feigen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Extension Rumors: Z. Collins, Allen, Tucker, Mykhailiuk, Markkanen

December 19th, 2020 at 10:20am CST by Luke Adams

Like his teammate Gary Trent Jr., Trail Blazers big man Zach Collins doesn’t intend to sign a contract extension with the club before the season, reports Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. Agent Mark Bartelstein tells Scotto that discussions with Portland on a long-term deal for Collins will be tabled until the 2021 offseason.

“(Blazers president of basketball operations) Neil (Olshey) and I have talked quite a bit about Zach, and there’s no question how strongly the Blazers feel about him,” Bartelstein said. “We both feel that an extension probably just doesn’t make sense at this time based on Zach not having a chance to play as much last year due to his injuries.

“Everyone’s focus right now is on getting Zach back to full health and having a terrific season, and then Neil and I will sit down and get to work on a contract this summer.”

Collins missed most of the 2019/20 season due to a shoulder injury, then had to be shut down early during the summer restart thanks to ankle surgery. He only played a total of 11 games in his third year, so he’ll look to make a stronger impression during the fourth and final year of his rookie contract in ’20/21.

Here’s more from Scotto on potential candidates for contract extensions:

  • The Nets have had exploratory discussions with center Jarrett Allen about a possible rookie scale extension, according to Scotto, who hears from a source close to Allen that the big man has enjoyed learning from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and wants to remain in Brooklyn long-term.
  • Scotto confirms that P.J. Tucker and the Rockets are engaging in extension talks, as Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle reported on Friday. If the two sides don’t reach a deal and Tucker becomes available in trades, Houston should have no problem finding suitors — multiple teams have expressed interest in acquiring him, says Scotto.
  • There’s mutual interest between the Pistons and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk in a potential extension, writes Scotto. Mykhailiuk, who will become a restricted free agent in 2021 without a new deal, would be eligible for up to $53.76MM over four years. That’s probably higher than Detroit would be willing to go, but it’s worth noting that the third-year guard made 40.4% of his three-pointers in 2019/20 and sharpshooters like Davis Bertans and Joe Harris did very well in free agency.
  • Although the Bulls and Lauri Markkanen have both publicly expressed a desire to finalize a rookie scale extension by Monday’s deadline, the team sides remained far apart heading into the weekend, according to Scotto.
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Wood Makes Splashy Preseason Debut

December 18th, 2020 at 8:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Christian Wood made an impressive preseason debut for the Rockets after missing three games with a sore elbow, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle writes. Wood racked up 27 points with 10 rebounds in just 24 minutes. Wood was acquired in a sign-and-trade from the Pistons after agreeing to a three-year, $41MM contract. “It’s one game. It’s preseason. But I left it all out there,” he said. “I felt like I was playing hard. We just have to keep it up.”

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Rockets, P.J. Tucker Continue Extension Talks

December 18th, 2020 at 2:32pm CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets and P.J. Tucker have continued to discuss a possible contract extension for the veteran forward, according to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. Tucker’s agent Andre Buck and Rockets general manager Rafael Stone had a conversation on Friday morning, Feigen adds.

Although no deal is imminent, there’s some optimism that “there may be something there,” Feigen hears from a person close to the situation. That source tells The Houston Chronicle that both sides are “hopeful” they’ll be able to work something out.

The lack of a contract extension has reportedly been a major source of frustration for Tucker, who has been seeking a new deal since at least the summer of 2019. His current contract will pay him $7.97MM in 2020/21 before expiring, so he’ll be an unrestricted free agent after this season if he doesn’t agree to terms with the Rockets before then.

According to Feigen, Houston will likely offer Tucker a two-year extension — a longer deal would be all but impossible due to the NBA’s over-38 rule. A new two-year contract for Tucker could be worth up to nearly $25MM, including a first-year salary of $12MM (120% of the league’s estimated average salary). Feigen suggests that the amount of guaranteed money in the second year of such an offer may be a sticking point in negotiations.

Tucker has been a crucial part of Houston’s rotation since joining the team in 2017. Over the last three years, the 35-year-old – who hasn’t missed a single game due to injury – has knocked down 36.9% of his three-point attempts while playing stout defense against opposing big men in small-ball lineups.

While December 21 is the deadline for rookie scale extensions and certain veteran extensions, Tucker will remain eligible to sign a new deal during the regular season, so he and the Rockets don’t necessarily have to resolve the situation within the next few days. Still, the Rockets – who are still dealing with a disgruntled star in James Harden – may be motivated to get something done to ensure they don’t have another unhappy veteran in their starting lineup.

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James Harden Rumors: Simmons, Sixers, Heat, Robinson

December 18th, 2020 at 10:16am CST by Luke Adams

After reporting on Thursday that the Sixers have been willing to discuss Ben Simmons in James Harden trade talks with the Rockets, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (video link) said during an appearance on the Keyshawn, JWill and Zubin Show today that Philadelphia will be “very careful” about including Simmons in any offer that doesn’t get them more than Harden.

While Wojnarowski doesn’t get into any specifics about what Philadelphia would want, it seems reasonable to assume that if they’re being asked to part with Simmons and draft picks, the 76ers would seek at least one more player from the Rockets — perhaps someone like P.J. Tucker. It doesn’t sound like Houston would be enthusiastic about that scenario though, per Wojnarowski, who says the Rockets will likely want Simmons “plus a bunch more assets” for just Harden.

“You saw (Sixers president of basketball operations) Daryl Morey come out yesterday and say, ‘We’re not trading Ben Simmons,'” Wojnarowski said. “Well, I certainly don’t think they’re trading Ben Simmons just in a deal that looks like it’s straight up with some picks for James Harden. I think they’re going to want a lot more than James Harden. That might not be a deal that’s available to the Sixers.”

The two sides could re-engage in discussions, but right now they aren’t close, according to Woj, who says he expects Simmons and Joel Embiid to open the season in Philadelphia.

Here’s more on Harden:

  • Although the Rockets are committed to finding the right deal, they’d be happy to get a Harden trade done “sooner than later,” Wojnarowski said this morning during an appearance on ESPN’s Get Up (video link).
  • Simmons is unlikely to be traded for Harden at this time, according to Derek Bodner of The Athletic, who cautions that doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the coming months if the Simmons/Embiid duo isn’t thriving. For now though, once reports surfaced suggesting Simmons might be available, the Sixers had to publicly back their All-Star guard, Bodner writes.
  • The Heat were said to have interest in exploring a possible Harden trade and have presumably touched base with Houston. However, Ethan Skolnick of Five Reasons Sports (Twitter link) hears from multiple sources that the inclusion of Duncan Robinson in a possible offer is a “major sticking point” — in other words, the Rockets would want him and Miami wouldn’t want to give him up.
  • ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) expanded his breakdown of teams that could theoretically make a run at Harden from nine to 14, adding long shots like the Cavaliers, Bucks, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Kings.
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Rockets Sign William McDowell-White To Two-Way Deal

December 18th, 2020 at 8:22am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets have filled the open two-way slot on the roster, signing free agent guard William McDowell-White to a two-way contract, according to the NBA’s official transactions log.

McDowell-White, 22, was a G League affiliate player for the Rockets last season after going undrafted in 2019. He appeared in 17 games for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and played a limited role, averaging 3.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, and 1.7 APG in 11.8 minutes per contest.

The 6’5″ Australian has also spent time with the Sydney Kings and Germany’s Brose Bamberg, among other international teams.

Houston could badly use some depth at the point guard spot, with Chris Clemons sidelined for the season due to a torn Achilles. John Wall, who is returning from an Achilles tear of his own, is the only other real point guard on the roster, though James Harden will do plenty of ball-handling as long as he continues to wear a Rockets uniform.

While McDowell-White will give the Rockets another option at the point, I wouldn’t expect him to play regular minutes to start the season, given his lack of NBA experience. On his two-way deal, he’ll be eligible to appear in up to 50 of the club’s 72 games.

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Sixers Open To Discussing Ben Simmons In Harden Trade Talks?

December 17th, 2020 at 6:43pm CST by Luke Adams

6:43pm: Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has responded to the reports on Simmons’ potential availability, issuing the following statement to Charania (Twitter link): “We are not trading Ben Simmons — he is an important part of our future.”

While Morey’s statement suggests there will be no traction anytime soon on a swap involving Harden and Simmons, that possibility can’t be entirely ruled out. With both ESPN and The Athletic reporting on the Sixers’ openness to discussing Simmons, there’s likely something to it, and Morey has made this sort of declaration before about a player he later traded.

5:51pm: The Sixers have “signaled a willingness” to include Ben Simmons in trade packages for James Harden, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne. Shams Charania of The Athletic is hearing the same thing, tweeting that the 76ers have made Simmons available in talks with the Rockets for Harden.

However, ESPN’s duo reports that those discussions have “come nowhere close” to a deal, and Charania conveys a similar sentiment, writing that conversations between the two teams “aren’t fluid” for the time being.

While the Rockets and 76ers haven’t gained any momentum toward an agreement, Houston is increasingly expanding trade talks beyond Harden’s preferred destinations, according to Wojnarowski and Shelburne. Sources tell ESPN that the Rockets are engaged in ongoing discussions on several fronts and have been keeping in touch with Harden about those scenarios.

A number of playoff-caliber teams in the East and West are feeling “less inhibited” about trading for Harden without any assurances that they’d be able to keep him beyond his opt-out date in 2022, according to Wojnarowski and Shelburne, who add that those teams appear increasingly comfortable discussing high-level trade assets.

For their part, the Rockets haven’t moved off their reported asking price of a young franchise cornerstone and draft picks, and are prepared to open the season with Harden on their roster, per Woj and Shelburne. However, ESPN’s duo says the Rockets are also signaling to teams that they’re willing to complete a trade sooner rather than later if the right deal arises.

A report last week indicated that the Sixers appear best positioned to acquire Harden if they’re willing to part with Simmons — that still seems to be the case, though Philadelphia and Houston would have to haggle over what else would be included in a hypothetical swap of the All-Star guards. One recent report suggested the Rockets would want three first-round picks in addition to Simmons, which seems unrealistic.

The Rockets’ interest in the Nets‘ assets is limited, sources tell ESPN, so a third team may be necessary to get the former MVP to Brooklyn.

Harden’s list of preferred destinations reportedly includes Milwaukee and Miami as well, though the Bucks aren’t believed to be interested in pursuing a deal, as Brian Windhorst of ESPN said today on his Hoop Collective podcast (hat tip to RealGM). The Heat sound more open to exploring the possibility of adding Harden, and ESPN’s report suggests that other teams may be in the mix as well.

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