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Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Nik Stauskas (Nets)
Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
Zach LaVine (Bulls)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Elfrid Payton (Suns)
Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
Clint Capela (Rockets)
Kyle Anderson (Spurs)

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

LeBron James To Prioritize Family, Winning In Free Agency

April 9th, 2018 at 10:14am CST by Luke Adams

LeBron James remains cagey when asked about his upcoming free agency, having repeatedly reiterated that he’s focused on the shorter-term future – including the Cavaliers’ upcoming playoff matchups – for now. However, as Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com details, James was willing to state in general terms this weekend that his family and the opportunity to keep contending for titles will be the most important factors for him when he makes his decision this summer.

“My family. That’s all that matters,” James said. “I want to continue to win at the highest level, because I know I can still do it as an individual, and then my family. My family is what’s most important to me, more than anything.”

While James referred to his family as “all that matters” and as “what’s more important to me,” he isn’t about to join a team far away from championship contention simply based on where his family wants to live. While his family’s preferred city will be a key consideration for LeBron, it won’t fully dictate his decision, as he explained to Vardon.

“That’s just a small piece of it,” James said. “We make joint decisions all together, all the time. Once we get to it, my agent and my team we will all tackle it the right way, but my family plays a big part in it. And winning.

Any team with James on its roster has automatically been elevated to contender status for most of his career. Still, it’s worth noting that of the teams he’s believed to be considering – including the Cavs, Lakers, Sixers, and Rockets – some could present a more immediate path to a title than others.

James will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this July if he declines his $35,607,968 player option for 2018/19. While an opt-out is considered the most likely outcome, it’s not necessarily a lock. Chris Paul was in a similar situation last summer and used the threat of an opt-out to leverage a trade to the Rockets, picking up his player option in the process. James could take a similar approach if he decides he wants to join an over-the-cap team, such as CP3’s Rockets.

Rockets Signing Tim Quarterman To Two-Year Deal

March 30th, 2018 at 12:43pm CST by Austin Kent

MARCH 30, 12:43pm: The Rockets have signed Quarterman to a multiyear contract rather than just a 10-day deal, reports Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). According to Charania, the agreement covers this season and next season, with 2018/19’s salary not guaranteed.

The Rockets have a full 15-man roster, so they’ll have to make a corresponding move to formally sign Quarterman. Terminating Le’Bryan Nash‘s 10-day contract – which will expire Sunday night – would be the simplest path to a roster spot, though the team could also waive a player on a full-season contract.

MARCH 29, 3:45pm: The Rockets are set to sign shooting guard Tim Quarterman to a 10-day contract, Marc Stein of The New York Times tweets. Quarterman last suited up for the Trail Blazers in 2016/17.

The undrafted 23-year-old had planned to sign in China but passport complications prevented that earlier this year. Now the wing will look to provide depth for the No. 1 team in the NBA.

Quarterman went through training camp with the Rockets last October and was one of the final four players cut prior to the season.

In 16 games for Portland last season, Quarterman averaged 1.9 points and 0.7 assists in just 5.0 minutes of action. Now he’ll be charged with the task of carving out a role for himself on a team with no shortage of offensive weapons already on its bench.

RFA Rumors: Parker, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle

March 30th, 2018 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.

Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…

Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.

Rockets Send Zhou Qi, Chinanu Onuaku To G League

March 28th, 2018 at 7:40pm CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets assigned young bigs Zhou Qi and Chinanu Onuaku to the G League today, the team announced (Twitter link via Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston). Houston’s affiliate, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, will be in action on Friday night, hosting the Texas Legends in the NBAGL playoffs.

Eric Gordon Likes Backup Point Guard Role

March 25th, 2018 at 6:06pm CST by marksuleymanov

Injuries to both Chris Paul and James Harden have given Eric Gordon an opportunity to be the Rockets‘ fill-in starting point guard. Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle relays that Gordon likes the opportunity the injuries created for him. “I like it that way,” Gordon said. “It expands my game more. To me, it’s tougher to determine what I’m going to do when I have the ball in my hands more. If you’re a good playmaker and a good scorer and you have the ball in your hands more, you have a chance to do good things. I do pretty well when I’m the backup point guard.”

NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 3/25/18

March 25th, 2018 at 4:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Here are Sunday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:

The Rockets have recalled center Zhou Qi from the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle tweets. The 7’1” center has made 14 brief appearances with the Rockets this season. He’s averaging 11.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 2.3 BPG in G League play.
The Raptors recalled forward Nigel Hayes from their Raptors 905 affiliate, the team’s media relations staff tweets. Hayes has appeared in 43 G League games this season, averaging 15.0 PPG and 6.1 RPG. He’s also made two cameo appearances for Toronto, which signed him to a second 10-day contract on March 16th.
The Timberwolves recalled rookie center Justin Patton from their Iowa affiliate, according to Jerry Zgoda of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The 7-footer averaged 12.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 1.4 BPG for the Iowa Wolves, who did not qualify for the G League playoffs. Patton has yet to make his NBA debut.
The Warriors recalled Damian Jones from the Santa Cruz Warriors, the team announced in a press release. The center has averaged 15.0 points and 8.1 boards in 44 games with the affiliate. Also, two-way forward Chris Boucher has also been recalled from Santa Cruz. He appeared in one game with the Warrior.
The Suns recalled veteran big man Alan Williams from their G League affiliate, the Northern Arizona Suns, as part of his rehab process in returning from a torn right meniscus, per an official press release.

Chris Paul May Return Sunday

March 24th, 2018 at 7:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Rockets guard Chris Paul will be held out of tonight’s game, but could return tomorrow, according to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Coach Mike D’Antoni said Paul is making progress after hurting his hamstring Tuesday night.

Rockets Waive Brandan Wright, Sign Le’Bryan Nash

March 24th, 2018 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

MARCH 24: The NBA’s official transactions log indicates that both moves are now official. The league’s site classifies Nash’s new deal as a 10-day contract.

MARCH 23: Brandan Wright‘s time in Houston will be coming to an early end, according to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle, who reports that the Rockets are waiving the veteran. The team will sign forward Le’Bryan Nash to fill the newly-opened roster spot, Feigen adds.

Wright, 30, received a buyout from the Grizzlies after last month’s trade deadline and quickly reached an agreement to join the Rockets. While the versatile big man was viewed as a good fit for Houston, he only appeared in one game for the club before being shut down due to right knee soreness. Wright underwent a minor procedure to address that issue and will continue to work on his rehab with the Rockets’ medical staff even after being waived, a source tells Feigen.

It sounds like Wright won’t be healthy enough this season to return to the court for the postseason anyway, but even if he were to make a quick recovery, he wouldn’t be playoff-eligible for a new team, since he’s being waived after March 1.

As for Nash, the former Oklahoma State standout played in South Korea this season after spending 2016/17 with the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, Houston’s G League affiliate. I would expect him to be assigned to the Vipers again for the NBAGL playoffs once he officially signs with the Rockets.

It’s also worth noting, as Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report recently observed, that signing a player like Nash to a multiyear, minimum salary deal could help the Rockets accommodate another summer trade like the one they made a year ago for Chris Paul, but that’s merely hypothetical for now.

Eight RFAs Well Positioned For Long-Term Contracts

March 23rd, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a monster payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team often have to overpay to do it — just ask Tim Hardaway Jr., who almost certainly did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted last summer. Otto Porter, Tony Snell, Joe Ingles, Cristiano Felicio, and Mason Plumlee were among the other 2017 RFAs who secured lucrative long-term deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down big four-year offers last offseason and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. Alex Len and Nikola Mirotic were among the other RFAs who remained on the market for months before eventually signing modest deals.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a lucrative long-term deal is generally preferred, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2018 free agent period, league-wide cap space isn’t expected to be as abundant as it has been over the past couple years, but there are still a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big contracts. Here are eight of them:

Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela may not have the dynamic sort of skill set that some of the NBA’s best big men possess, but he does exactly what the Rockets need him to — finish at the basket (.651 FG%), grab rebounds (10.9 RPG), and protect the rim (1.8 BPG). Barring a major surprise, I’d expect Houston to go well into tax territory to ensure that he and Chris Paul both get lucrative new deals this summer.
Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): After opening the season with a red-hot shooting stretch (.595 3PT% in his first 10 games), Gordon has posted more pedestrian shooting numbers since then (.299 3PT% in his last 39 games). The former fourth overall pick becomes an extremely dangerous offensive weapon when his three-pointer is working, but even without it, he makes for an intriguing free agent option. Gordon is still just 22 years old, and coming off a career year, he’s a good bet to land a big offer sheet from a team with cap room if the Magic drag their feet in negotiations.
Julius Randle, F/C (Lakers): With Larry Nance Jr. sent to Cleveland and Kyle Kuzma unable to sustain his hot start all season long, Randle has been the Lakers‘ most impressive big man for the last three months. Since entering the starting lineup on December 29, the former Kentucky standout has averaged 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG, making a case for a spot on the Lakers’ long-term plans even if the team is able to land a top outside free agent or two this summer. The Mavericks have been cited most frequently as a potential suitor for Randle if he seeks out an offer sheet.
Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): Although injuries have prevented LaVine from taking another step forward this season, that’s unlikely to significantly impact his free agent value. The Bulls traded for LaVine last offseason knowing that a pricey new deal was on the horizon, and there has been no indication that the team has wavered on the idea of locking him up to a long-term pact.
Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): Had Parker stayed healthy during his first four NBA seasons, he may already have a maximum salary extension secured. Instead, two ACL injuries have created uncertainty about what his next contract will look like. The former No. 2 overall pick reportedly passed on an offer last fall that would have paid him $18MM annually, and while he may not do better than that on the open market, his market shouldn’t crater. Parker already has a 20+ PPG season under his belt, and has put up career-best shooting numbers since returning from his latest ACL tear — his scoring potential will be tantalizing enough for a team with cap flexibility to take a shot on him if the Bucks don’t re-sign him right away.
Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): Nurkic has been somewhat inconsistent this season, particularly on offense, but the Trail Blazers‘ defense continues to perform better and commit fewer fouls when he’s on the court, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote this week. A 23-year-old center capable of anchoring a defense for a top-six team in the NBA is a rarity — that makes him a good bet to do well for himself in free agency.
Marcus Smart, G (Celtics): Like Nurkic, Smart isn’t necessarily a reliable go-to option on offense, but his defensive ability makes him a valuable rotation piece. According to Basketball-Reference’s on/off-court stats, the Celtics allow about five fewer points per 100 possessions and force more turnovers when Smart is on the floor. While his shooting numbers (.367/.301/.729) leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old should at least be in line for an Andre Roberson-type contract (three years, $30MM).
Fred VanVleet, G (Raptors): The only player on this list who wasn’t a first-round pick, VanVleet actually wasn’t drafted at all, joining the Raptors as a rookie free agent in 2016. He has developed into a solid backup point guard this season, averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.5 APG with a .450/.432/.867 shooting line since the start of 2018. His success creates an interesting predicament for the Raptors, who project to be a taxpayer in 2018/19, and could have to contend with a rival suitor back-loading an offer sheet for VanVleet via the Arenas provision. Toronto may ultimately need to trade another expensive contract if they want to retain VanVleet without committing to a huge tax bill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.