Rockets Rumors

Trevor Ariza Wants $50MM To $60MM

Free agent forward Trevor Ariza doesn’t sound ready to give a discount to the Rockets or anyone one else this summer, according to Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire.

Ariza is reportedly hoping to land a four- or five-year deal valued at $50MM to $60MM, well above the $30MM to $40MM Iko expects the Rockets to offer. Ariza will turn 33 later this month, and this will likely be his last significant NBA contract.

Ariza has played on team-friendly deals throughout his career, with his highest salary of nearly $8.58MM coming in 2014/15, the year he arrived in Houston. He earned $7.42MM this season at the end of a four-year deal that was part of a sign-and trade with the Wizards in 2014.

His demands present one more complication for the Rockets, who are already concerned with keeping free agents Clint Capela (restricted) and Chris Paul (unrestricted). They also hope to find a way to add another major talent such as LeBron James or Paul George.

Ariza is known for his durability, defense and 3-point shooting, all of which helped the Rockets secure the best regular season record in the league. He changed his representation earlier this season, leaving Landmark Sports Group for CAA Sports, in preparation for free agency.

 The Warriors are interest in Ariza, according to ESPN’s Chris Haynes, but they are well over the cap and couldn’t come close to his asking price.

Don't Get Hopes Up On LeBron, George

  • Rockets fans should lower their expectations of potentially landing LeBron James or Paul George and simply hope GM Daryl Morey can upgrade a  luxury-tax team with precious few young assets, Sean Deveney of Sports Illustrated opines. Giving Chris Paul a max contract will be a tough pill but one they’ll have to swallow to remain a prime contender, Deveney adds.

Taking A Closer Look At LeBron James’ Future

One of the NBA’s all-time best players can become a free agent this summer, and despite rumors about which cities he does and doesn’t like, or where his kids might be attending school next fall, LeBron James‘ next team remains a mystery.

We will, of course, be covering all the latest news and rumors on James’ decision in the coming weeks, but before he decides on his home for the 2018/19 season, we want to take a look at several key factors which will help determine where LeBron will continue his career.

Let’s dive right in…

Why June 29, not July 1, may be the most important LeBron-related date of the summer:

Discussing James’ upcoming “free agency” is getting a step ahead of ourselves, since there’s a very real chance that the four-time MVP won’t become a free agent at all. James currently holds a player option for the 2018/19 season.

Star free agents usually decline player options because doing so gives them a chance to earn a larger salary and to potentially secure a long-term deal if they so choose. However, in James’ case, his $35,607,968 player-option salary actually exceeds the projected maximum salary based on a $101MM cap ($35.35MM). As such, there may not be a strong incentive to opt out of his contract.

Exercising that player option would open up more doors for James this offseason. There are barely any teams around the league that project to have $35MM+ available in cap room to sign him outright as a free agent, but virtually any club could put together a trade package to acquire him if he opts in.

This situation is very reminiscent of Chris Paul‘s 2017. Widely expected to reach free agency, Paul instead picked up his 2017/18 player option before his late-June deadline in order to accommodate a trade to the Rockets, who didn’t have the cap space to sign CP3 outright.

A looming June 29 player-option decision deadline means that James and his representatives may ultimately have to make a decision on his next destination before the end of the month. If LeBron wants to go to a team that will need to trade for him after he opts in, he’ll have to reach an understanding with the Cavaliers by June 29 to ensure that they don’t just keep him for next season once he picks up his option. Additionally, in that scenario, the Cavs would need to feel comfortable that they’ll be able to work out an acceptable trade with the team James wants to join.

It’s an unusual situation, and one that could mean we find out James’ 2018/19 destination even before the new league year begins on July 1.

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Latest On LeBron James’ Future

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert cannot offer LeBron James a stake in the franchise in an effort to retain his services, Michael McCann and Jon Wortheim of Sports Illustrated point out. The Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits players from holding direct or indirect interest in the ownership of a team, thus the NBA would not approve a contract with any type of ownership provision, the story continues. The league has also been vigilant in preventing players and owners from intermingling their business interests, the SI duo notes. James can opt out of his contract or try to force a trade to a desired destination this summer.

Here’s some other interesting notes regarding the possibility of James playing elsewhere next season:

  • The Rockets would need to either gut their roster or make a trade with the Cavaliers to add James, but the latter option is complicated by the team’s roster composition, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle writes. The Cavaliers would likely want quality young talent to kick-start a rebuild in any James trade and the Rockets don’t have enough of those players while trying to match up salaries to absorb James’ $35MM contract, Feigen adds. The most desirable option for the Rockets is to dump Ryan Anderson‘s contract ($20.4MM next season and $21.3 MM in 2019/20) on a team with ample cap room, according to Kevin Pelton of ESPN. But Houston probably doesn’t have enough first-round picks to package with Anderson to get a third party to bite, Pelton adds.
  • There are major obstacles to any possible pursuit of James’ services by the Celtics, DJ Bean of NBCSports.com notes. It’s highly unlikely that Boston would include Gordon Hayward in any deal, considering the high-level free agent chose Boston last summer and hasn’t even played a full game with the franchise, Bean continues. There’s also the sticky problem of trying to reunite James with Kyrie Irving, who asked out of Cleveland last summer. Acquiring James now would likely damage the team’s long-term prospects for being the dominant team in the league, given the assets they’d likely have to trade, Bean adds. Logically, the only big contract the Celtics would be willing to move is Al Horford‘s deal, according to Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald.
  • James’ decision will have more to do with his family than basketball, former teammate Dwyane Wade predicts, as Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald writes. “I don’t really think for him the basketball decision is ‘Oh, let me go team up with three All-Stars.’ I think at this point in his life it’s more so of a lifestyle thing,” Wade said. “Where is my family going to be the most comfortable at? Where am I going to be the happiest at? Because basketball-wise he’s so great, he can take along whoever.”
  • The Lakers and Sixers are the favorites to land James while the Cavs are just a 5-1 shot to retain him, according to Bovada sports book, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. The odds rundown can be found here.

Rockets To Revisit Ryan Anderson Trade Options

Ryan Anderson will be a trade candidate once again this offseason, according to Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire, who hears from two sources with knowledge of the Rockets’ thinking that GM Daryl Morey is “intent on moving” Anderson. One source told Iko that the club could explore a buyout if no viable trade options arise.

Anderson, 30, signed a four-year, $80MM contract with the Rockets as a free agent in 2016. In two seasons with the Rockets, Anderson has delivered the kind of outside shooting the club sought from him, averaging 2.4 3PG with a .396 3PT%. However, the floor spacing and three-pointers provided by the veteran forward have been offset by his struggles on the defensive end of the floor.

The Rockets’ defensive rating with Anderson on the court in 2017/18 was approximately five points worse than the team’s rating when he sat. The former Pelican even fell out of Houston’s rotation during the postseason last month, playing less than 29 minutes over the course of the Rockets’ seven-game series against Golden State.

Anderson has been on the trade block in the past and the Rockets have struggled to find a taker. For instance, his inclusion in a potential package was a sticking point when Houston and New York discussed a Carmelo Anthony trade last summer. The Rockets will likely have to include at least two future first-round picks in order to incentivize a team to take on Anderson’s contract, and even that might not do the trick.

Still, finding a way to reduce their commitment to Anderson figures to be a top priority this offseason as the Rockets look to re-sign Chris Paul and Clint Capela. New deals for those key free agents would send team salary skyrocketing over the tax line, so moving on from Anderson wouldn’t just get Houston out from under his salary — it would also greatly reduce the team’s projected tax bill.

Latest On LeBron James

LeBron James would still like to finish his career in Cleveland, but the events of the past year have him wondering if he can ever win another title there, writes Brian Windhorst of ESPN.

A second straight lopsided Finals is only part of the picture, Windhorst notes, as the past 12 months have seen the loss of GM David Griffin, the trade of Kyrie Irving, a health scare for coach Tyronn Lue and two extreme roster makeovers. Mental mistakes from teammates in the Finals, highlighted by J.R. Smith‘s error at the end of Game 1, led to James wonder this week, “How do you put together a group of talent but also a group of minds to be able to compete” with the Warriors.

Cleveland enters this summer with no cap room and a once-promising draft pick that landed in the middle of the lottery. The Celtics and Sixers both took huge steps forward this season and appear to be the powers in the Eastern Conference for years to come, presenting a significant obstacle for James to ever reach the Finals again if he stays in Cleveland.

On top of that, Windhorst notes, there’s a trust issue with owner Dan Gilbert and a limited relationship with GM Koby Altman, who is barley older than James. In theory, the Cavs have the advantage of being able to offer a longer and richer contract than anyone else — five years at more than $200MM. However, James hasn’t inked a deal longer than two years since returning to Cleveland and seems to prefer the power he holds with short-term arrangements.

There’s more on LeBron as free agent speculation heats up:

  • Expect the Cavaliers to see what they can get for a package of Kevin Love and the No. 8 pick in an attempt to convince James to stay, reports ESPN’s Zach Lowe. The team passed on chances to deal Love at close to maximum value and will have a hard time obtaining even half of that at this point, Lowe adds.
  • Matt Goul of Cleveland.com is running through several potential scenarios involving James and the team’s future. His first story involves James staying in Cleveland and the Cavs trying to improve by drafting a starter at No. 8 and adding a free agent with their $5.4MM mid-level exception. Goul identifies several unrestricted free agents 30 or younger who may be available at that price: Celtics center Greg Monroe, Nets center Jahlil Okafor, Suns center Alex Len, Mavericks center Nerlens Noel, Nuggets guard Will Barton and Grizzlies guard Tyreke Evans.
  • Frank Urbina of Hoops Hype examines eight potential free agent destinations for James: the Clippers, Heat, Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Sixers and Celtics, as well as a potential future with the Cavaliers.

DeAndre Jordan Interested In Joining Rockets?

With DeAndre Jordan considering whether to turn down his 2018/19 player option and test free agency this summer, the Rockets are believed to be one of his preferred destinations, sources tell Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire.

One source tells Iko that Jordan spoke to several Rockets players throughout the 2017/18 season to express his interest in playing for his hometown team. The last time he hit free agency in 2015, Jordan agreed to play for the Mavericks, a team in his home state, before pulling out of the agreement to re-sign with the Clippers.

After a now-infamous postgame locker room altercation between Rockets and Clippers players in January, Jordan interacted with several Rockets players on their team bus to voice his frustration with Los Angeles, Iko’s source claimed. A few weeks later, Blake Griffin was shipped to Detroit as the Clippers shifted their strategy.

Jordan, 29, enjoyed a strong season with the Clippers, averaging 12.0 PPG and 15.2 RPG in 77 games. While those numbers are strong, the Rockets appear committed to 24-year-old restricted free agent Clint Capela at center. Team owner Tilman Fertitta has said that Houston will match any offer sheet extended to Capela, so unless the team has a change of heart, Jordan does not have a direct path to the Rockets.

Potential Destinations For Ariza

  • The Rockets will have a ton of decisions to make this summer, among them being veteran Trevor Ariza. He is set to hit free agency this summer and after several productive seasons in Houston, Frank Urbina of HoopsHype examines four potential destinations for Ariza. In addition to re-signing with Houston, Urbina views a reunion with the Knicks and joining the Thunder or Pelicans as possibilities.

Four Teams Who Could Become Taxpayers By Re-Signing Key Free Agents

The Cavaliers, Warriors, and Thunder had the three most expensive rosters in the NBA in 2017/18, finishing the season well over the tax line. While those three clubs don’t currently project to be taxpayers again in 2018/19, that will change quickly if they’re able to re-sign their top free agents.

If LeBron James returns to Cleveland, Kevin Durant re-ups with the Dubs, and Paul George remains in Oklahoma City, all three clubs will blow past the luxury-tax threshold once again, barring separate cost-cutting moves.

For those teams, the possibility of going back into tax territory and continuing to run their repeater-tax clocks probably isn’t particularly appealing. But based on their high payrolls this past season, we know that ownership is willing to pay those penalties to contend, if necessary.

Heading into the 2018 offseason, there are several more clubs who could see their respective team salaries surpass the tax line if they re-sign certain free agents, and it remains to be seen just how comfortable some of those ownership groups are with the idea of becoming taxpayers.

Here are four teams whose team salaries are worth watching as they navigate free agency:

  1. Houston Rockets: With a little less than $78MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2018/19 at the moment, the Rockets appear to have some breathing room. However, lucrative new contracts for Clint Capela and Chris Paul would quickly change that equation. If we assume Paul gets a maximum-salary deal and Capela receives a starting salary in the range of $15-20MM, that would mean adding $50-55MM to Houston’s 2018/19 cap, which would put the team over the projected tax line with only eight players under contract. Ditching Ryan Anderson‘s contract would almost certainly be the club’s preferred method of avoiding a massive tax bill, but as we saw last offseason when the Rockets unsuccessfully shopped Anderson in trade talks, that won’t be easy.
  2. New Orleans Pelicans: With seven players on guaranteed contracts worth about $93MM, the Pelicans will get into some financial trouble if they re-sign DeMarcus Cousins to a pricey new contract. Even if we assume Cousins’ Achilles injury will prevent him from landing a max deal, he’s probably a good bet for a starting salary in the neighborhood of $20-25MM. Filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary contracts around Cousins and their other seven players would see New Orleans carry a team salary in the $122-127MM range — and that’s a conservative estimate which doesn’t include another important free agent, Rajon Rondo. Solomon Hill ($12.75MM) would be the most logical trade or release candidate if the Pels need to cut costs.
  3. Portland Trail Blazers: A solid but unspectacular season for Jusuf Nurkic should ensure that the Trail Blazers won’t have to pay him near-max money to keep him. Still, Portland is already carrying more than $110MM in guaranteed money for eight players, and Nurkic is probably worth an eight-figure salary. If the Blazers want to bring him back and avoid the tax, it’s possible we’ll see the team try to move one or more highly-paid players like Evan Turner ($17.87MM), Maurice Harkless ($10.84MM), or Meyers Leonard ($10.6MM).
  4. Denver Nuggets: While the Nuggets only have about $85.6MM in guaranteed 2018/19 money on their cap, a pair of player options for Wilson Chandler and Darrell Arthur figure to increase that total to about $105.9MM. Will Barton will also be due a raise, increasing team salary even further if he’s re-signed. But the real killer will be a potential extension for Nikola Jokic. Denver could probably avoid the tax by simply exercising Jokic’s cheap team option for 2018/19, but doing so would put him on track to become an unrestricted free agent in 2019 and wouldn’t sit well with the young center’s camp. Turning down the option, making him a restricted free agent, and locking him up to a mega-deal this offseason might be the Nuggets’ best move, but doing so would likely put the team over the tax line. Chandler ($12.8MM), Arthur ($7.46MM), Kenneth Faried ($13.76MM), and Mason Plumlee ($12.92MM) would become trade or release candidates in that scenario.

The Toronto Raptors deserve an honorable mention on this list, since re-signing Fred VanVleet would create some financial issues for them. However, even if they let VanVleet walk, the Raps will need to find a way to shed some salary in order to avoid becoming a taxpayer. Toronto already has more than $126MM in guaranteed contracts on its 2018/19 books without accounting for VanVleet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Paul George’s Free Agency

Paul George has one season remaining on his contract, but he’s expected to opt out of his deal this summer and become a free agent. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski discussed George’s future on the network’s NBA Draft Special (h/t Brett Dawson of The Oklahoman), explaining how the Thunder are now in a better position to keep George than they were last offseason.

“Oklahoma City’s done a great job of selling him on a future there, and he liked playing with Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams and Billy Donovan,” Wojnarowski said.

While OKC has an opportunity to keep George, the Lakers remain a serious threat. George and LeBron James will at least discuss the possibility of teaming up in Los Angeles prior to free agency, per Woj.

The Rockets will be aggressive in their pursuit of George. While Houston isn’t expected to have salary cap space, we saw what GM Daryl Morey is capable of in last summer’s Chris Paul deal. Morey and the Rockets will search for a way to get George on the roster should the small forward have interest in joining the club.

Wojnarowski also mentions that the Sixers would be a good fit for George. Philadelphia has slightly over $67.4MM in guaranteed salary on the books with the cap projected to come in at $101MM.