Rockets Rumors

Five Key Offseason Questions: Houston Rockets

Daryl Morey‘s plan to knock off the Warriors just about worked. Up 3-2 in the Western Conference Finals, the Rockets were faced with the challenge of winning one more game without star point guard Chris Paul in their lineup. Houston couldn’t pull it off, losing Game 6 in Oakland, then suffering through one of the worst shooting slumps in NBA history at home in Game 7.

While it may be tempting to view the series’ result – and the Warriors’ eventual title victory – as an inevitability, no NBA team in the last two years has pushed Golden State like the Rockets did, which is a sign that Houston is on the right track. Now, Morey and the front office will have to ensure they remain on that track, with several important players eligible for free agency this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Chris Paul and Clint Capela return?

Paul and Capela are two of the top seven or eight free agents available this offseason, and the Rockets could be in trouble if they fail to re-sign either one.

Paul’s impact is obvious. The veteran play-maker took the pressure off James Harden in 2017/18, sharing the ball-handling load when they played alongside each other and running the offense when Harden was on the bench. When the Rockets acquired him from the Clippers last year, CP3 had to opt into the final year of his previous contract rather than signing a new one, but there appeared to be a tacit understanding that he’d get a lucrative, long-term deal from Houston in 2018. That still seems like the probable outcome, and it would be a shock if he left at this point.

As for Capela, he has no All-Star appearances or All-NBA nods to his name, but the 24-year-old’s gradual improvement has made him an important part of this roster. He averaged a double-double (13.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG) in 2017/18, leading the NBA in FG% (.652) and anchoring Houston’s defense (1.9 BPG). While Capela doesn’t stretch the floor like some of the league’s elite young bigs, he does pretty much everything else you’d want from a center, effectively setting screens, finishing at the rim, and protecting the rim on the other end of the court.

Assuming Paul re-signs, the Rockets wouldn’t have any cap room to go out and make another impact signing, so bringing back Capela looks like the club’s best bet for staying strong at the five. The Rockets will just have to hope they aren’t faced with matching a massive offer sheet for Capela, who would be a much safer investment at $15-20MM per year than at $25MM annually.

2. Will Trevor Ariza re-sign with the Rockets?

Although Paul and Capela will be Houston’s top priorities in free agency, Ariza’s positive impact shouldn’t be overlooked, Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals notwithstanding. Up until that last game against the Warriors, Ariza had been a reliable three-and-D mainstay in the Rockets’ rotation all year long, making 36.8% of his three-point attempts during the regular season.

Players like Ariza and P.J. Tucker – who can hit corner threes and match up on defense with dangerous wing scorers – are crucial to Houston’s success, particularly against Golden State, so I expect the Rockets to make a strong effort to retain Ariza.

Ariza’s free agency reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala‘s a year ago. When Iguodala reached the open market, rival suitors – who recognized that poaching Iggy from the Warriors was the most viable way to hurt the defending champs – were aggressive in pursuing him. The Dubs ultimately won the bidding, but it cost them much more (three years, $48MM) than they would have liked to bring back Iguodala.

Teams in direct competition with the Rockets and in need of three-and-D wings could take a similar approach to Ariza’s free agency this summer, which is why a report suggesting the veteran forward is hoping for a $50-60MM payday isn’t as outrageous as it might seem.

While Ariza may not quite get that high, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he receives an offer worth $30MM+ or $40MM+. If he does, the Rockets will have to make a tough decision on whether he’s worth the investment or whether they can get similar production from more affordable players like Luc Mbah a Moute (who will also be a free agent).

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Draft Rumors: Rockets, Spurs, Knicks, Bridges

Based on conversations with executives and agents, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer (Twitter link) is getting the sense that there’s far more uncertainty than usual entering Thursday’s draft. As O’Connor notes, it’s not just a matter of there being so many teams who are willing to move up, down, or out of the draft — there’s also no consensus on which players are the best available outside the lottery, which should make for an interesting night.

Here are more draft-related notes and rumors as we look forward to draft day:

  • The Rockets appear to be exploring a trade that would net them a mid-lottery pick, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, who tweets that the club has apparently been trying to bring in prospects for workouts. This is worth keeping an eye on, but seems like a long shot, considering how limited Houston’s trade assets are.
  • The Spurs are “throwing out feelers” on trading the No. 18 selection in their conversations with teams, tweets Jabari Young of The San Antonio Express-News. While the pick could be had in the right deal, the team will likely keep it, according to Young.
  • While Kevin Knox has received serious consideration, sources tell Marc Berman of The New York Post that Mikal Bridges remains the best bet to be the Knicks‘ pick at No. 9 on Thursday. Even if Michael Porter Jr. is available when the Knicks are on the clock, the team may have “cold feet,” given the forward’s health questions, per Berman.
  • Jeremy Woo’s latest article for SI.com includes plenty of scuttlebutt about the draft’s top picks and which way those teams appears to be leaning.

Woj’s Latest: CP3, Rockets, George, Suns, Mavs

Having appeared on a pair of draft specials on ESPN on Monday night, Adrian Wojnarowski shared several interesting tidbits related to the draft and free agency during his segments. We’ve already passed along a few of those notes and rumors in a pair of posts this morning, but we’ve got more to round up in the space below, so let’s dive in…

  • Chris Paul still appears to be a virtual lock to return to the Rockets, and is focused less on his own free agency than on recruiting LeBron James to Houston, according to Wojnarowski (Twitter link via Sagar Trika). Meanwhile, the Rockets would also love to re-sign Trevor Ariza, but the veteran forward will be a popular free agent who draws interest from multiple contenders, per Woj (Twitter link via Trika).
  • Wojnarowski is the latest to report that the Thunder still have a good chance to re-sign Paul George, despite the club’s underwhelming showing in the postseason (Twitter link via Trika).
  • After Wojnarowski reported that the Suns‘ No. 16 pick could be in play for a trade, GM Ryan McDonough confirmed as much during an appearance on ESPN, suggesting that his team would be willing to package the selection and another asset or two in order to acquire a second lottery pick (Twitter links via Trika).
  • The Mavericks are high on Luka Doncic, and are weighing whether they’ll have a shot to select the Real Madrid star at No. 5, says Wojnarowski (link via The Dallas Morning News). The Mavs have previously indicated that they have no plans to move up, but it sounds like they’d at least consider the possibility if it means landing Doncic.
  • According to Wojnarowski, the Sixers aren’t expected to hire a new general manager anytime soon — Woj reports the team will likely interview candidates deep into July (Twitter link via Trika).

Trevor Ariza Wants $50MM To $60MM

Free agent forward Trevor Ariza doesn’t sound ready to give a discount to the Rockets or anyone one else this summer, according to Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire.

Ariza is reportedly hoping to land a four- or five-year deal valued at $50MM to $60MM, well above the $30MM to $40MM Iko expects the Rockets to offer. Ariza will turn 33 later this month, and this will likely be his last significant NBA contract.

Ariza has played on team-friendly deals throughout his career, with his highest salary of nearly $8.58MM coming in 2014/15, the year he arrived in Houston. He earned $7.42MM this season at the end of a four-year deal that was part of a sign-and trade with the Wizards in 2014.

His demands present one more complication for the Rockets, who are already concerned with keeping free agents Clint Capela (restricted) and Chris Paul (unrestricted). They also hope to find a way to add another major talent such as LeBron James or Paul George.

Ariza is known for his durability, defense and 3-point shooting, all of which helped the Rockets secure the best regular season record in the league. He changed his representation earlier this season, leaving Landmark Sports Group for CAA Sports, in preparation for free agency.

 The Warriors are interest in Ariza, according to ESPN’s Chris Haynes, but they are well over the cap and couldn’t come close to his asking price.

Don't Get Hopes Up On LeBron, George

  • Rockets fans should lower their expectations of potentially landing LeBron James or Paul George and simply hope GM Daryl Morey can upgrade a  luxury-tax team with precious few young assets, Sean Deveney of Sports Illustrated opines. Giving Chris Paul a max contract will be a tough pill but one they’ll have to swallow to remain a prime contender, Deveney adds.

Taking A Closer Look At LeBron James’ Future

One of the NBA’s all-time best players can become a free agent this summer, and despite rumors about which cities he does and doesn’t like, or where his kids might be attending school next fall, LeBron James‘ next team remains a mystery.

We will, of course, be covering all the latest news and rumors on James’ decision in the coming weeks, but before he decides on his home for the 2018/19 season, we want to take a look at several key factors which will help determine where LeBron will continue his career.

Let’s dive right in…

Why June 29, not July 1, may be the most important LeBron-related date of the summer:

Discussing James’ upcoming “free agency” is getting a step ahead of ourselves, since there’s a very real chance that the four-time MVP won’t become a free agent at all. James currently holds a player option for the 2018/19 season.

Star free agents usually decline player options because doing so gives them a chance to earn a larger salary and to potentially secure a long-term deal if they so choose. However, in James’ case, his $35,607,968 player-option salary actually exceeds the projected maximum salary based on a $101MM cap ($35.35MM). As such, there may not be a strong incentive to opt out of his contract.

Exercising that player option would open up more doors for James this offseason. There are barely any teams around the league that project to have $35MM+ available in cap room to sign him outright as a free agent, but virtually any club could put together a trade package to acquire him if he opts in.

This situation is very reminiscent of Chris Paul‘s 2017. Widely expected to reach free agency, Paul instead picked up his 2017/18 player option before his late-June deadline in order to accommodate a trade to the Rockets, who didn’t have the cap space to sign CP3 outright.

A looming June 29 player-option decision deadline means that James and his representatives may ultimately have to make a decision on his next destination before the end of the month. If LeBron wants to go to a team that will need to trade for him after he opts in, he’ll have to reach an understanding with the Cavaliers by June 29 to ensure that they don’t just keep him for next season once he picks up his option. Additionally, in that scenario, the Cavs would need to feel comfortable that they’ll be able to work out an acceptable trade with the team James wants to join.

It’s an unusual situation, and one that could mean we find out James’ 2018/19 destination even before the new league year begins on July 1.

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Latest On LeBron James’ Future

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert cannot offer LeBron James a stake in the franchise in an effort to retain his services, Michael McCann and Jon Wortheim of Sports Illustrated point out. The Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits players from holding direct or indirect interest in the ownership of a team, thus the NBA would not approve a contract with any type of ownership provision, the story continues. The league has also been vigilant in preventing players and owners from intermingling their business interests, the SI duo notes. James can opt out of his contract or try to force a trade to a desired destination this summer.

Here’s some other interesting notes regarding the possibility of James playing elsewhere next season:

  • The Rockets would need to either gut their roster or make a trade with the Cavaliers to add James, but the latter option is complicated by the team’s roster composition, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle writes. The Cavaliers would likely want quality young talent to kick-start a rebuild in any James trade and the Rockets don’t have enough of those players while trying to match up salaries to absorb James’ $35MM contract, Feigen adds. The most desirable option for the Rockets is to dump Ryan Anderson‘s contract ($20.4MM next season and $21.3 MM in 2019/20) on a team with ample cap room, according to Kevin Pelton of ESPN. But Houston probably doesn’t have enough first-round picks to package with Anderson to get a third party to bite, Pelton adds.
  • There are major obstacles to any possible pursuit of James’ services by the Celtics, DJ Bean of NBCSports.com notes. It’s highly unlikely that Boston would include Gordon Hayward in any deal, considering the high-level free agent chose Boston last summer and hasn’t even played a full game with the franchise, Bean continues. There’s also the sticky problem of trying to reunite James with Kyrie Irving, who asked out of Cleveland last summer. Acquiring James now would likely damage the team’s long-term prospects for being the dominant team in the league, given the assets they’d likely have to trade, Bean adds. Logically, the only big contract the Celtics would be willing to move is Al Horford‘s deal, according to Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald.
  • James’ decision will have more to do with his family than basketball, former teammate Dwyane Wade predicts, as Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald writes. “I don’t really think for him the basketball decision is ‘Oh, let me go team up with three All-Stars.’ I think at this point in his life it’s more so of a lifestyle thing,” Wade said. “Where is my family going to be the most comfortable at? Where am I going to be the happiest at? Because basketball-wise he’s so great, he can take along whoever.”
  • The Lakers and Sixers are the favorites to land James while the Cavs are just a 5-1 shot to retain him, according to Bovada sports book, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. The odds rundown can be found here.

Rockets To Revisit Ryan Anderson Trade Options

Ryan Anderson will be a trade candidate once again this offseason, according to Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire, who hears from two sources with knowledge of the Rockets’ thinking that GM Daryl Morey is “intent on moving” Anderson. One source told Iko that the club could explore a buyout if no viable trade options arise.

Anderson, 30, signed a four-year, $80MM contract with the Rockets as a free agent in 2016. In two seasons with the Rockets, Anderson has delivered the kind of outside shooting the club sought from him, averaging 2.4 3PG with a .396 3PT%. However, the floor spacing and three-pointers provided by the veteran forward have been offset by his struggles on the defensive end of the floor.

The Rockets’ defensive rating with Anderson on the court in 2017/18 was approximately five points worse than the team’s rating when he sat. The former Pelican even fell out of Houston’s rotation during the postseason last month, playing less than 29 minutes over the course of the Rockets’ seven-game series against Golden State.

Anderson has been on the trade block in the past and the Rockets have struggled to find a taker. For instance, his inclusion in a potential package was a sticking point when Houston and New York discussed a Carmelo Anthony trade last summer. The Rockets will likely have to include at least two future first-round picks in order to incentivize a team to take on Anderson’s contract, and even that might not do the trick.

Still, finding a way to reduce their commitment to Anderson figures to be a top priority this offseason as the Rockets look to re-sign Chris Paul and Clint Capela. New deals for those key free agents would send team salary skyrocketing over the tax line, so moving on from Anderson wouldn’t just get Houston out from under his salary — it would also greatly reduce the team’s projected tax bill.

Latest On LeBron James

LeBron James would still like to finish his career in Cleveland, but the events of the past year have him wondering if he can ever win another title there, writes Brian Windhorst of ESPN.

A second straight lopsided Finals is only part of the picture, Windhorst notes, as the past 12 months have seen the loss of GM David Griffin, the trade of Kyrie Irving, a health scare for coach Tyronn Lue and two extreme roster makeovers. Mental mistakes from teammates in the Finals, highlighted by J.R. Smith‘s error at the end of Game 1, led to James wonder this week, “How do you put together a group of talent but also a group of minds to be able to compete” with the Warriors.

Cleveland enters this summer with no cap room and a once-promising draft pick that landed in the middle of the lottery. The Celtics and Sixers both took huge steps forward this season and appear to be the powers in the Eastern Conference for years to come, presenting a significant obstacle for James to ever reach the Finals again if he stays in Cleveland.

On top of that, Windhorst notes, there’s a trust issue with owner Dan Gilbert and a limited relationship with GM Koby Altman, who is barley older than James. In theory, the Cavs have the advantage of being able to offer a longer and richer contract than anyone else — five years at more than $200MM. However, James hasn’t inked a deal longer than two years since returning to Cleveland and seems to prefer the power he holds with short-term arrangements.

There’s more on LeBron as free agent speculation heats up:

  • Expect the Cavaliers to see what they can get for a package of Kevin Love and the No. 8 pick in an attempt to convince James to stay, reports ESPN’s Zach Lowe. The team passed on chances to deal Love at close to maximum value and will have a hard time obtaining even half of that at this point, Lowe adds.
  • Matt Goul of Cleveland.com is running through several potential scenarios involving James and the team’s future. His first story involves James staying in Cleveland and the Cavs trying to improve by drafting a starter at No. 8 and adding a free agent with their $5.4MM mid-level exception. Goul identifies several unrestricted free agents 30 or younger who may be available at that price: Celtics center Greg Monroe, Nets center Jahlil Okafor, Suns center Alex Len, Mavericks center Nerlens Noel, Nuggets guard Will Barton and Grizzlies guard Tyreke Evans.
  • Frank Urbina of Hoops Hype examines eight potential free agent destinations for James: the Clippers, Heat, Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Sixers and Celtics, as well as a potential future with the Cavaliers.

DeAndre Jordan Interested In Joining Rockets?

With DeAndre Jordan considering whether to turn down his 2018/19 player option and test free agency this summer, the Rockets are believed to be one of his preferred destinations, sources tell Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire.

One source tells Iko that Jordan spoke to several Rockets players throughout the 2017/18 season to express his interest in playing for his hometown team. The last time he hit free agency in 2015, Jordan agreed to play for the Mavericks, a team in his home state, before pulling out of the agreement to re-sign with the Clippers.

After a now-infamous postgame locker room altercation between Rockets and Clippers players in January, Jordan interacted with several Rockets players on their team bus to voice his frustration with Los Angeles, Iko’s source claimed. A few weeks later, Blake Griffin was shipped to Detroit as the Clippers shifted their strategy.

Jordan, 29, enjoyed a strong season with the Clippers, averaging 12.0 PPG and 15.2 RPG in 77 games. While those numbers are strong, the Rockets appear committed to 24-year-old restricted free agent Clint Capela at center. Team owner Tilman Fertitta has said that Houston will match any offer sheet extended to Capela, so unless the team has a change of heart, Jordan does not have a direct path to the Rockets.