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Eight RFAs Well Positioned For Long-Term Contracts

March 23rd, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a monster payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team often have to overpay to do it — just ask Tim Hardaway Jr., who almost certainly did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted last summer. Otto Porter, Tony Snell, Joe Ingles, Cristiano Felicio, and Mason Plumlee were among the other 2017 RFAs who secured lucrative long-term deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down big four-year offers last offseason and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. Alex Len and Nikola Mirotic were among the other RFAs who remained on the market for months before eventually signing modest deals.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a lucrative long-term deal is generally preferred, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2018 free agent period, league-wide cap space isn’t expected to be as abundant as it has been over the past couple years, but there are still a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big contracts. Here are eight of them:

Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela may not have the dynamic sort of skill set that some of the NBA’s best big men possess, but he does exactly what the Rockets need him to — finish at the basket (.651 FG%), grab rebounds (10.9 RPG), and protect the rim (1.8 BPG). Barring a major surprise, I’d expect Houston to go well into tax territory to ensure that he and Chris Paul both get lucrative new deals this summer.
Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): After opening the season with a red-hot shooting stretch (.595 3PT% in his first 10 games), Gordon has posted more pedestrian shooting numbers since then (.299 3PT% in his last 39 games). The former fourth overall pick becomes an extremely dangerous offensive weapon when his three-pointer is working, but even without it, he makes for an intriguing free agent option. Gordon is still just 22 years old, and coming off a career year, he’s a good bet to land a big offer sheet from a team with cap room if the Magic drag their feet in negotiations.
Julius Randle, F/C (Lakers): With Larry Nance Jr. sent to Cleveland and Kyle Kuzma unable to sustain his hot start all season long, Randle has been the Lakers‘ most impressive big man for the last three months. Since entering the starting lineup on December 29, the former Kentucky standout has averaged 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG, making a case for a spot on the Lakers’ long-term plans even if the team is able to land a top outside free agent or two this summer. The Mavericks have been cited most frequently as a potential suitor for Randle if he seeks out an offer sheet.
Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): Although injuries have prevented LaVine from taking another step forward this season, that’s unlikely to significantly impact his free agent value. The Bulls traded for LaVine last offseason knowing that a pricey new deal was on the horizon, and there has been no indication that the team has wavered on the idea of locking him up to a long-term pact.
Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): Had Parker stayed healthy during his first four NBA seasons, he may already have a maximum salary extension secured. Instead, two ACL injuries have created uncertainty about what his next contract will look like. The former No. 2 overall pick reportedly passed on an offer last fall that would have paid him $18MM annually, and while he may not do better than that on the open market, his market shouldn’t crater. Parker already has a 20+ PPG season under his belt, and has put up career-best shooting numbers since returning from his latest ACL tear — his scoring potential will be tantalizing enough for a team with cap flexibility to take a shot on him if the Bucks don’t re-sign him right away.
Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): Nurkic has been somewhat inconsistent this season, particularly on offense, but the Trail Blazers‘ defense continues to perform better and commit fewer fouls when he’s on the court, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote this week. A 23-year-old center capable of anchoring a defense for a top-six team in the NBA is a rarity — that makes him a good bet to do well for himself in free agency.
Marcus Smart, G (Celtics): Like Nurkic, Smart isn’t necessarily a reliable go-to option on offense, but his defensive ability makes him a valuable rotation piece. According to Basketball-Reference’s on/off-court stats, the Celtics allow about five fewer points per 100 possessions and force more turnovers when Smart is on the floor. While his shooting numbers (.367/.301/.729) leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old should at least be in line for an Andre Roberson-type contract (three years, $30MM).
Fred VanVleet, G (Raptors): The only player on this list who wasn’t a first-round pick, VanVleet actually wasn’t drafted at all, joining the Raptors as a rookie free agent in 2016. He has developed into a solid backup point guard this season, averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.5 APG with a .450/.432/.867 shooting line since the start of 2018. His success creates an interesting predicament for the Raptors, who project to be a taxpayer in 2018/19, and could have to contend with a rival suitor back-loading an offer sheet for VanVleet via the Arenas provision. Toronto may ultimately need to trade another expensive contract if they want to retain VanVleet without committing to a huge tax bill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockets Notes: Harden, D’Antoni, Anderson, James

March 21st, 2018 at 9:56pm CST by marksuleymanov

In the midst of another MVP-worthy season, James Harden continues to impress people around the league, including his head coach, Mike D’Antoni. As Sam Amick of USA TODAY Sports writes, after the Rockets defeated the Trail Blazers on Tuesday, D’Antoni labeled Harden as “the best offensive player I’ve ever seen.”

Harden posted 42 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in the win, just the latest standout performance in a season filled with them. For D’Antoni, who has coached the likes of Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony, Harden offers an all-around skill set that is unmatched.

“He’s a hell of a player, first off,” D’Antoni said. “It’s a combination of everything. There are other players who might be better at this, or a little bit better at that. But when you put everything together, and the way he passes, the way he sees teammates, the way he can lob, the way he can fight through a foul. I mean even on an off night, he’s probably getting 30, 40 points, and I mean efficiently. And he doesn’t even have anything going. But he’s so efficient, and he gets other guys involved. … He’s got one flaw. He does get tired some. He’s mortal. And that’s it. Other than that …”

Harden is averaging 31.2 PPG, 8.7 APG, and 5.2 RPG for the Rockets. After finishing as the runner-up to Russell Westbrook in MVP voting one season ago, Harden looks like the clear-cut favorite this year’s award.

Check out more news and notes out of the Rockets organization:

Tyronn Lue took a leave from his coaching post with the Cavaliers due to health concerns, and D’Antoni understands how the rigors of the job can require someone to take a needed step back, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle writes. “Especially if you lose, you wonder what you could do differently. My first 20 years in coaching, even more, I couldn’t read books, for sure,” D’Antoni said. “I could read short articles, but I had a hard time escaping. I think I’ve gotten to a point I can read books and escape more than I used to. I try not to drive myself crazy.”
Ryan Anderson has seen a lot of time at center since he returned from injury and the Rockets anticipate him continuing to play the position going forward, Feigen writes in a separate story. “We’ll look at all possibilities, but he’ll play some five for sure,” D’Antoni said. “Then, we’ll see. Matchups, maybe in the playoffs, will be different here and there, but right now we’re going to look at this.”
LeBron James will be a free agent this offseason and his decision figures to be the NBA’s story of the summer. The Rockets are one of several teams that have been linked to James, prompting Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report to examine how the Rockets can add the four-time MVP without sacrificing Chris Paul and other assets.

And-Ones: Playoff Format, Billups, Future Power Rankings

March 21st, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Don’t expect LeBron James to be among those lobbying on behalf of a potential play-in tournament for a postseason berth. The NBA has reportedly kicked the idea around in a couple different variations, but James said today that he’s not a fan of the concept, as Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com details.

“No, no, no,” James said. “That’s wack. That’s wack. Why? You got to earn your spot to be in the postseason. No consolation for finishing last. That’s corny. That’s corny. That’s wack. To play for what? What are they playing for?”

While there’s a belief in some league circles that a play-in tournament at the end of the regular season to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference would generate some drama, James is a firm believer that the eight teams with the best records in each conference deserve to make the playoffs.

“[Make the playoffs by winning the tournament], even if my record is better than yours? Nah, that’s wack,” James said.

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

Appearing on ESPN’s The Jump on Tuesday, Chauncey Billups called a report about the Pistons expressing interest in him for a front office role “100% false,” per Rod Beard of The Detroit News. “I haven’t spoken to anybody with the organization about the possibility,” Billups said. Still, this isn’t the first time Billups has been linked to a front office job — if the former NBA guard does land somewhere as an executive, former Pistons assistant GM George David would be a candidate to potentially join him, tweets Vince Ellis of The Detroit Free Press.
Nine NBA teams have been officially eliminated from the postseason. While the 2017/18 season has been a fairly forgettable one for those clubs, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer highlights some silver linings worth mentioning.
Over at ESPN.com (Insider link), Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks have updated their future NBA power rankings, which consider each team’s outlook through the 2020/21 season. Unsurprisingly, the Warriors, Celtics, and Rockets still top their list, with the Sixers and Raptors jumping into the top five.

Gerald Green Fined; Paul Says He'll Pay The Fine

March 20th, 2018 at 8:46pm CST by clarkcrum

Late in Sunday night’s win over Minnesota, Gerald Green of the Rockets shoved Timberwolves big man Gorgui Dieng into the stands in retaliation for Dieng pushing Chris Paul to the floor after being fouled.

Green was ejected, causing Paul to speak out on his behalf, telling Rockets‘ beat writer Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle that he would take care of any fine levied against Green by the league. Said Green, “I’m just trying to be there for my teammate. I saw something happen and I reacted. I paid the consequences for it. I learned my lesson, got ejected, try not to do that again, and hopefully we’re going to move forward from this.”

Despite Green’s contrition, the league announced today that it has fined the Rockets swingman $25K for the incident, with no word yet on whether or not Paul with stay true to his word and foot the bill for Green coming to his defense.

Zhou Qi Assigned To Rio Grande Valley

March 20th, 2018 at 6:46pm CST by clarkcrum

The Rockets assigned Zhou Qi to their G League affiliate, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, per the G League’s official transaction log. Qi, 22, is averaging 11.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game in 21 G League contests this season.

D'Antoni: Tucker Deserves All-Defensive Honors

March 19th, 2018 at 8:17pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Rockets forward P.J. Tucker has never been named to the All-Defensive team and coach Mike D’Antoni believes that should change this season. “It doesn’t get much better than him,” D’Antoni told Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. The Rockets’ defense ranks third in the league since Tucker became a starter, Feigen notes.

Ryan Anderson Returns For Rockets, Feels 'No Pain'

March 19th, 2018 at 1:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Ryan Anderson played in both of the Rockets‘ games over the weekend after missing the previous nine contests with hip and groin injuries. As Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle writes, Anderson struggled a little with his rhythm in his first game back, but said he felt “no pain.”

Rockets’ Gersson Rosas A Serious Candidate For Hornets’ GM Job

March 19th, 2018 at 8:53am CST by Luke Adams

Rockets executive Gersson Rosas is receiving serious consideration for the Hornets’ open general manager job, reports Marc Stein of The New York Times (Twitter link). Former Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak has been viewed as the favorite to replace Rich Cho as Charlotte’s full-time GM, but Stein suggests Rosas has emerged as an “increasingly serious candidate” for the Hornets.

Rosas, who has spent more than a decade with the Rockets, currently holds the title of executive vice president of basketball operations for the franchise. A right-hand man of Daryl Morey, Rosas briefly left the franchise in 2013 to become the Mavericks’ GM, but returned to Houston after things didn’t pan out in Dallas.

The fact that Rosas resigned from that job with the Mavs after just a few months is something the Hornets will have to consider as they weigh whether he’s the right man for their opening. However, reports at the time suggested that Rosas had been hoping for more say in personnel decisions in Dallas, where Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson ranked above him in the basketball operations hierarchy. That shouldn’t be a problem in Charlotte, where the team’s new GM is expected to have control over basketball decisions.

While Rosas and Kupchak appear to be the early frontrunners for the Hornets’ GM position, the team was also said to be interviewing Sixers VP of player personnel Marc Eversley and Heat assistant GM Adam Simon. It remains to be seen if Charlotte will interview more candidates in the coming weeks — the club reportedly would like to have a GM in place around the end of the regular season, to give the new head of basketball operations plenty of time to prepare for the draft and free agency.

Latest On LeBron James

March 9th, 2018 at 1:05pm CST by Luke Adams

With the Cavaliers in Los Angeles this weekend to play the Clippers on Friday and the Lakers on Sunday, it seems like as good a time as any to check in on LeBron James‘ upcoming free agency. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer jump-started that discussion on Thursday when he reported that he has “consistently heard from multiple league sources” that James’ list of potential destinations currently only includes four teams: the Cavs, Lakers, Rockets, and Sixers.

Asked today about his potential free agency, James dismissed the idea that he has put together any sort of list yet, according to Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. While the star forward also called recruiting billboards posted in L.A. “flattering,” he said he’s not thinking about his free agency at this point — though he did acknowledge he understands the constant Lakers speculation.

“I understand that the conversation happens here because first of all [the Lakers] have cap space,” James said, per Vardon. “And this league is much better when the Lakers, the Knicks, and the Celtics are all good at the same time. That’s just how it is. So, that’s what also creates the frenzy.”

Let’s round up a few more items on James and his 2018 free agency…

Within an article about James’ potential fit with the Lakers, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN cites league sources who believe it’s “still a long shot” that LeBron chooses the Lakers.
One source close to the situation had this to say to Shelburne: “If someone is pretending they know what LeBron is thinking, they’re guessing. How could anyone know when he doesn’t even know?”
Sources close to LeBron can see him playing until he’s 40 years old, Shelburne notes. That would mean seven more seasons after this one for James, which suggests that even a long-term deal this offseason wouldn’t be his last NBA contract.
Elsewhere at ESPN.com, in an Insider-only piece, Kevin Pelton examines how James might fit with either the Lakers or the Clippers. A series of salary cap machinations would be required for the Clips to have a shot at LeBron; even then, it’s not clear if he’d seriously consider them, so the Lakers are a much more viable landing spot, in Pelton’s view.
As we noted on Thursday, Sam Amick and Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today reached a similar conclusion when they ranked six hypothetical destinations for James — the Clippers ranked last in that group. However, the Rockets, Sixers, and Cavaliers all ranked ahead of the Lakers in terms of LeBron’s best options, per the USA Today duo.
James remains in the No. 1 spot in the latest edition of our 2018 Free Agent Power Rankings, published on Thursday.

LeBron James’ Free Agency List Down To Four Teams?

March 8th, 2018 at 12:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

LeBron James‘ list of potential free agent destinations for this summer is believed to only include four teams for now, according to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer. In addition to the Cavaliers, sources tell O’Connor that James is expected to listen to pitches from the Lakers, Sixers and Rockets.

O’Connor’s tidbit comes in a larger story about the Spurs and whether James might consider San Antonio because the mutual admiration between him and coach Gregg Popovich.

James is considered certain to opt out of a $35.6MM salary for next season and enter free agency for the third time since returning to Cleveland. He said earlier this season that he will be seeking a full max contract, which will start at $35MM+ per season, wherever he decides to go.

The Lakers have been trying to clear cap room in anticipation of chasing James and another maximum-salary free agent. Their efforts included last month’s trade of Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. to Cleveland, taking more than $12.7MM off next year’s books.

The Sixers would have approximately $31MM available if they decline their options on Richaun Holmes and T.J. McConnell and renounce free agents J.J. Redick, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli, and Ersan Ilyasova.

The Rockets would require more maneuvering, with nearly $24MM available, but with Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza both heading toward unrestricted free agency and Clint Capela being restricted. A trade like last year’s Paul deal may be Houston’s best chance at landing LeBron.

The cap isn’t a concern in Cleveland with the Cavs’ owning Bird rights on James, but the luxury tax might be. However, owner Dan Gilbert has expressed a willingness to keep making hefty tax payments as long as James remains in town.

Cleveland will have the advantage of being able to offer James a longer contract (by one year), plus 8% annual raises while other teams are limited to 5%. However, money may not be the deciding factor in where he plays next season.