- The Rockets finished the season with the best record in the Western Conference and are poised to put up a strong fight for a championship. However, even if the Rockets fail to win a title, head coach Mike D’Antoni said their season can still be cherished, ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk writes.
With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.
More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.
However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).
[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]
For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.
For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.
Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:
- Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
- Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
- Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
- Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.
Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.
Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:
- Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
- Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
- Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
- Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
- Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
- Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
- Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
- Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
- Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
- Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30
Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:
- Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
- Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
- Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
- Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
- Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
- Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
- Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
- Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
- Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
- Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
- Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
- Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
- Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60
11:54pm: The Trail Blazers have defeated the Jazz in their regular season finale and clinched the No. 3 seed with the win. Here are the first-round matchups in the Western Conference:
- Rockets (No. 1) vs. Timberwolves (No. 8)
- Warriors (No. 2) vs. Spurs (No. 7)
- Trail Blazers (No. 3) vs. Pelicans (No. 6)
- Thunder (No. 4) vs. Jazz (No. 5)
9:47pm: The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets and clinched the final spot in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. We now know the following.
- The Nuggets will miss the playoffs
- The Timberwolves are the No. 8 seed.
- The Spurs are the No. 7 seed.
- If the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz:
- Pelicans are No. 6
- Jazz are No. 5
- Thunder are No. 4
- Blazers are No. 3
- If the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers:
- Thunder are No. 6
- Pelicans are No. 5
- Blazers are No. 4
- Jazz are No. 3
8:54pm: The Thunder lead the Grizzlies by 12 with less than nine minutes remaining, while the Pelicans lead the Spurs by 18 with less than 10 minutes remaining. Barring a surprise comeback by Memphis or San Antonio, here is how the playoff picture looks after wins by Oklahoma City and New Orleans.
Jazz: 3 or 5
Trail Blazers: 3 or 4
Thunder: 4 or 6
Pelicans: 5 or 6
Spurs: 7 or 8
Timberwolves: 8 or 9
Nuggets: 7 or 9
4:37pm: As we indicated earlier today, the Nuggets and Timberwolves will face-off tonight with the final spot of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on the line.
And while that game will be the only winner-gets-in, loser-gets-eliminated contest tonight, there are numerous other games with playoff seeding implications on the line. In the Western Conference, only the Rockets and the Warriors know their playoff seeding. Seeds three through eight are all still up for grabs, as follows:
Jazz: 3, 4, or 5
Trail Blazers: 3, 4, or 5
Pelicans: 5, 6, 7, or 8
Spurs: 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8
Thunder: 4, 6, or 8
Timberwolves: 6, 7, 8, or 9
Nuggets: 6, 7, or 9
We will be updating the Western Conference playoff seeding scenarios – in real time – as games finish this evening, so stay tuned to Hoops Rumors for all relevant up-to-the-minute developments. For now, here are some initial notes that are not conditional upon other game results:
- The Jazz and Trail Blazers winner gets the No. 3 seed.
- The Thunder will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to the Grizzlies.
- As noted above, the loser of the Nuggets and Wolves will finish ninth in the Western Conference standings.
8:34pm: The moves are official, per Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston.
7:18pm: The Rockets plan to sign guard Aaron Jackson for the remainder of the season, reports Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports. Jackson just recently finished his season as a member of the Beijing Ducks of the Chinese Basketball Association.
Jackson, 31, graduated from Duquesne in 2009, leaving as the school’s all-time leader in games played, third all-time in assists, and sixth all-time in steals. He was a member of CSKA Moscow in Russia from 2012 to 2017, winning a EuroLeague title in 2016.
Because Houston already has a full 15-man roster, the team plans to release recently signed guard Tim Quarterman in order to make room for Jackson, Charania adds.
Quarterman was signed on March 30 to a two-year deal, but next season’s contract was reportedly non-guaranteed. Quarterman should earn a little over $96K for his brief stint in Houston.
1:19pm: Mbah a Moute could miss up to four weeks with his latest shoulder injury, a source tells Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (Twitter link). If he returns four weeks from today, Mbah a Moute could make it back before the end of the second round.
10:32am: Mbah a Moute will likely miss at least the first round of the postseason, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). According to Wojnarowski, there’s no clear timetable yet for the forward’s return.
9:06am: Having already locked up the No. 1 seed in the West and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, the Rockets entered the season’s final week looking to stay healthy for the postseason. However, the club couldn’t get through the year’s final games unscathed.
As Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com writes, veteran forward Luc Mbah a Moute suffered a dislocated right shoulder during the second quarter of the Rockets’ loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night. He didn’t return to the game, and is now set to undergo an MRI, head coach Mike D’Antoni confirmed late last night.
A dislocated right shoulder also sidelined Mbah a Moute earlier this season, forcing him out of action for 15 games in December and January. However, D’Antoni is hopeful Mbah a Moute’s latest injury won’t keep him on the shelf for a full month again.
“I think it’s less [severe than in December] but I don’t know,” D’Antoni said, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. “We’ll have to wait until tomorrow when he gets it checked out, see what happens.”
If Mbah a Moute is unable to return for the start of the postseason, the Rockets figure to lean more heavily on P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza at the forward position. Depending on what sort of lineups Houston uses, backups like Gerald Green and Joe Johnson could also see a few more minutes than expected in the frontcourt — though if Ryan Anderson is ready to return from his ankle injury to start the playoffs, the team wouldn’t necessarily have to go too far down its bench.
Chris Paul will be a free agent this offseason, but he’s not looking ahead to the possibilities that this summer could bring. “Not at all,” Paul said when asked if he’s thought about his upcoming free agency (via Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle). “Not one time. Not once. I just always worry about right now.”
The point guard is happy in Houston and it’s easy to envision him remaining with the franchise — after all, when he decided to join the Rockets, it wasn’t simply about him. His family moved with him to Texas, which means his free agency is about more than basketball options. It’s about life decisions.
“That’s what happened when the trade happened,” Paul said. “I love it here. I love it here.”
Paul will be eligible for a five-year deal worth approximately $205MM this offseason. GM Daryl Morey wouldn’t discuss potential contract specifics, though he said that top-shelf point guards like Paul have a history of playing well late in their careers.
“Obviously, when we get someone as great as Chris Paul or James Harden, the plan is to keep him here,” Morey said during the season. “He’ll have a choice when the season ends. We feel like we set things up well. It should be an easy choice for him.”
The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.
- Jabari Parker (Bucks)
- Dante Exum (Jazz)
- Nik Stauskas (Nets)
- Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
- Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
- Zach LaVine (Bulls)
No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.
Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.
- Elfrid Payton (Suns)
- Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
- Clint Capela (Rockets)
- Kyle Anderson (Spurs)
Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.
Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
Only one player falls into this group this year.
- Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)
Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.
The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
LeBron James remains cagey when asked about his upcoming free agency, having repeatedly reiterated that he’s focused on the shorter-term future – including the Cavaliers’ upcoming playoff matchups – for now. However, as Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com details, James was willing to state in general terms this weekend that his family and the opportunity to keep contending for titles will be the most important factors for him when he makes his decision this summer.
“My family. That’s all that matters,” James said. “I want to continue to win at the highest level, because I know I can still do it as an individual, and then my family. My family is what’s most important to me, more than anything.”
While James referred to his family as “all that matters” and as “what’s more important to me,” he isn’t about to join a team far away from championship contention simply based on where his family wants to live. While his family’s preferred city will be a key consideration for LeBron, it won’t fully dictate his decision, as he explained to Vardon.
“That’s just a small piece of it,” James said. “We make joint decisions all together, all the time. Once we get to it, my agent and my team we will all tackle it the right way, but my family plays a big part in it. And winning.
Any team with James on its roster has automatically been elevated to contender status for most of his career. Still, it’s worth noting that of the teams he’s believed to be considering – including the Cavs, Lakers, Sixers, and Rockets – some could present a more immediate path to a title than others.
James will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this July if he declines his $35,607,968 player option for 2018/19. While an opt-out is considered the most likely outcome, it’s not necessarily a lock. Chris Paul was in a similar situation last summer and used the threat of an opt-out to leverage a trade to the Rockets, picking up his player option in the process. James could take a similar approach if he decides he wants to join an over-the-cap team, such as CP3’s Rockets.
MARCH 30, 12:43pm: The Rockets have signed Quarterman to a multiyear contract rather than just a 10-day deal, reports Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). According to Charania, the agreement covers this season and next season, with 2018/19’s salary not guaranteed.
The Rockets have a full 15-man roster, so they’ll have to make a corresponding move to formally sign Quarterman. Terminating Le’Bryan Nash‘s 10-day contract – which will expire Sunday night – would be the simplest path to a roster spot, though the team could also waive a player on a full-season contract.
MARCH 29, 3:45pm: The Rockets are set to sign shooting guard Tim Quarterman to a 10-day contract, Marc Stein of The New York Times tweets. Quarterman last suited up for the Trail Blazers in 2016/17.
The undrafted 23-year-old had planned to sign in China but passport complications prevented that earlier this year. Now the wing will look to provide depth for the No. 1 team in the NBA.
Quarterman went through training camp with the Rockets last October and was one of the final four players cut prior to the season.
In 16 games for Portland last season, Quarterman averaged 1.9 points and 0.7 assists in just 5.0 minutes of action. Now he’ll be charged with the task of carving out a role for himself on a team with no shortage of offensive weapons already on its bench.
Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.
Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…
- Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
- The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
- The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
- In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
- The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
- Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.