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Rockets Notes: Harden, Green, Porter, Kaminsky

March 1st, 2023 at 10:10am CST by Arthur Hill

The possibility that Sixers guard James Harden might return to Houston in free agency this summer remains as strong as ever, writes Kelly Iko of The Athletic. League sources expect the Rockets, who will have ample cap space, to aggressively pursue Harden once he turns down his $35.64MM player option. Sources close to Harden confirm to Iko that he’s considering the move.

Harden forced his way out of Houston two years ago after the loss of coach Mike D’Antoni and general manager Daryl Morey. His relationship with the organization appeared confrontational — he reported late and out of shape to training camp and having numerous clashes with coaches and teammates — but sources tell Iko that it never became acrimonious. Harden was disappointed that the Rockets were no longer contenders, and management was unhappy with how he handled the situation.

Harden still has a good relationship with team owner Tilman Fertitta and has maintained strong ties in the Houston area, Iko adds. Also, former Sixers minority owner Michael Rubin, a good friend of Harden’s who played a role in his desire to come to Philadelphia, sold his stake in the team last June.

Money will be an important factor in Harden’s decision, Iko notes, which gives the Sixers an advantage. Holding his Bird rights, they can offer up to a projected $272MM over five years, while Houston and any other potential suitor will be limited to four years at about $202MM. Iko states that if he stays in Philadelphia, Harden will expect to be compensated for taking a deal below his market value last summer to help the team sign several free agents.

There’s more from Houston:

  • After returning Tuesday from a groin injury, Jalen Green is thankful that the damage wasn’t worse, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. The injury sidelined the second-year guard for two weeks and forced him to miss the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend. “I actually called Coach the other day and was just telling him, ‘The last 24 games, I’m with you,’” Green said. “’I’m ready to lock in. Whatever we’ve got to do, we’ve got to string together some wins.’”
  • Coach Stephen Silas is optimistic that Kevin Porter Jr., Green’s backcourt partner, will be able to return Wednesday night, Feigen tweets. Porter has been out of action since January 11 with a foot contusion.
  • Today is the last day that players can agree to a buyout and still be eligible for the postseason with their new team, which makes it significant for Frank Kaminsky, notes Ben DuBose of RocketsWire. Of the four veteran players the Rockets acquired at the trade deadline, Kaminsky is the only one left on the roster — John Wall, Danny Green, and Justin Holiday were all released.
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Sengun Needs To Improve Defense

February 28th, 2023 at 10:08pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • Rockets big man Alperen Sengun is cognizant that he’s not getting crunch time minutes because he needs to improve defensively, Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle tweets. “I just need to be focused on pick-and-roll defense, I think. I can do better job,” he said.
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Willie Cauley-Stein Signs 10-Day Deal With Rockets

February 27th, 2023 at 5:50pm CST by Arthur Hill

5:50pm: Cauley-Stein’s 10-day contract with Houston is now official, the team announced in a press release. It will run through March 8, covering the Rockets’ next five games.

9:33am: The Rockets will sign veteran center Willie Cauley-Stein to a 10-day contract, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. 

Cauley-Stein signed with Houston in October, but was waived before the start of the regular season. He has been playing for the team’s G League affiliate in Rio Grande Valley, averaging 9.4 points and 6.2 rebounds in 10 regular season games and 6.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 16 Showcase Cup contests.

The 29-year-old appeared in 20 combined games with the Mavericks and Sixers last season. He was waived by Dallas in mid-January and signed a 10-day contract with Philadelphia in late February, but has been out of the league since then.

Cauley-Stein was selected by the Kings with the sixth pick in the 2015 draft and has played 422 games in seven seasons.

The Rockets have been carrying just 13 players with standard contracts since waiving Justin Holiday on February 13. They were required by league rules to fill at least one of their roster openings by today.

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Eason Thinks He's The Top Rookie Defender

February 27th, 2023 at 4:20pm CST by Rory Maher
  • Tari Eason‘s offensive numbers are solid, if unspectacular for a rookie — he’s averaging 8.7 points on .442/.347/.750 shooting splits in 19.6 minutes per game. However, the 21-year-old forward has made his presence felt on the other end of the court for the Rockets, as Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle writes. “I see a lot of people talking about some of the best defenders in the league,” Eason said as part of a larger quote. “I want to be one of those dudes they talk about. I feel like I’m the best rookie defender in this class.” Eason ranks sixth among rookies with 5.6 rebounds per night, per Feigen, and second in steals and deflections. His 2.8% steal percentage ranks fifth in the entire NBA, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
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Community Shootaround: NBA’s Race To The Bottom

February 26th, 2023 at 11:57am CST by Luke Adams

Coming into the 2022/23 season, there was some concern that the presence of Scoot Henderson and (especially) Victor Wembanyama at the top of the 2023 draft class could result in some pretty aggressive tanking from the bottom third of the NBA’s teams.

It hasn’t played out that way so far though, due to a competitive race for the top 10 spots in each conference. In the West, the top 13 teams all either hold a playoff or play-in spot or are no more than 1.5 games back of the No. 10 seed. It’s not quite as congested in the East, but the conference’s 13th team is only four games out of a play-in spot.

As a result, there have been only four teams in full-on “race for Wembanyama” mode, and one of those four clubs hasn’t exactly been in tanking mode as of late, winning its last four games. Here’s what the bottom of the NBA’s standings look like as of Sunday morning:

  1. Houston Rockets (13-46)
  2. San Antonio Spurs (14-47)
  3. Detroit Pistons (15-46)
  4. Charlotte Hornets (19-43)
  5. Orlando Magic (25-36)
  6. Indiana Pacers (27-35)
  7. Chicago Bulls (27-33)
  8. Los Angeles Lakers (28-32)
  9. (tie) Portland Trail Blazers / Oklahoma City Thunder / Washington Wizards (28-31)

Given that the odds for the No. 1 pick are the same for each of the NBA’s three worst teams, it seemed as if we’d get a four-team race for those three spots at the bottom of the standings. But the Hornets have won their last four games and appear far better positioned to continue getting victories than the Rockets (losers of eight in a row and 23 of their last 26), the Spurs (losers of 15 in a row and 21 of 22), and the Pistons (losers of four in a row and seven of their last eight).

Of course, if the Hornets were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d still end up with just 29 wins, so they may end up with the NBA’s fourth-worst record even if they finish strong. After all, the Bulls, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Wizards all seem motivated to make the play-in.

The Magic, Pacers, and Thunder are perhaps candidates for stealth end-of-season tanks in order to secure top-five lottery odds, since none of those clubs expected to be a playoff team this season. But they’ve been competitive all season and would probably have to start ruling out some of their top players due to injuries if they want to start winning less often (similar to what Portland did last year).

As for the race to the bottom among the NBA’s three worst teams, it’s hard to bet against the Rockets, who also finished with the league’s worst record in 2021 and 2022. But the Spurs are giving them a run for their money with their recent stretch of futility, posting an abysmal -15.8 net rating during their 15-game current losing streak. And the Pistons seem happy to experiment with new lineups while incorporating recently added players.

We want to know what you think. How will the race for lottery positioning play out the rest of the way? Which team will finish as the NBA’s worst? Has the Hornets’ recent success locked them into the fourth spot in the lottery standings? Are there any teams with 25 or more wins that you expect to go into full-on tank mode in the coming days or weeks?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

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Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

February 26th, 2023 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

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Texas Notes: Dieng, McDermott, Graham, Kleber, Stone

February 23rd, 2023 at 1:10pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Spurs veterans Gorgui Dieng and Doug McDermott will be tasked with helping to ensure that San Antonio’s young players continue to grow as the year winds down, writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News.

The team is currently mired in a 14-game losing streak en route to a prime lottery pick. McDonald writes that some of the coaching burden falls onto the team’s two most experienced players, McDermott and Dieng, who can operate as unofficial coaches on the floor.

How long both players remain on the roster beyond this season is anyone’s guess. Dieng, 33, is signed to a one-year minimum deal, and will be a free agent this summer. McDermott, 31, is the team’s highest-paid player, and is set to earn $13.8MM in the final season of his very tradable current deal, 2023/24.

There’s more out of the Lone Star State:

  • New Spurs guard Devonte’ Graham is still acclimating to his new environs, McDonald reports in another piece. After arriving in San Antonio by way of the Pelicans in a trade, he has yet to suit up for his new club in a home game. “I’m just trying to get adjusted,” Graham said. “I just packed enough to maintain for a couple of weeks… I’m just living out of a suitcase right now.”
  • Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber indicated to Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) that he expects he will miss at least Dallas’ next two games as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. Previous reporting suggested Kleber was hoping to return by the end of February.
  • Rockets team president Rafael Stone sat done for an extensive discussion about the team’s rebuild with Kelly Iko of The Athletic. “When we came into (the rebuild), we didn’t really have talent on the roster,” Stone said. “We didn’t have any cap space, we didn’t have any draft picks. We now have been able to recoup our draft picks, we have more cap space this summer than anybody else and I think we have a very talented roster… We need to translate those things into a team that becomes competitive and hopefully starts winning and winning big over time. And that’s the challenge in front of us starting this summer, but continuing on.”
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Roster Moves Required Soon For Knicks, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz

February 21st, 2023 at 7:34am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rules require teams to carry a minimum of 14 players on their standard 15-man roster (not counting two-way contracts). However, teams are permitted to dip below 14 players for up to two weeks at a time, and that often happens around the trade deadline when clubs send out multiple players in a deal without acquiring as many in return.

Entering this week, there were six NBA teams who were carrying only 13 players on standard contracts. However, the Heat filled their two open roster spots by signing Kevin Love and Cody Zeller, while the Bucks are reportedly signing Meyers Leonard to a 10-day contract to be their 14th man (they’ll have to finalize that deal by Thursday).

That leaves four teams with roster moves to make in the coming days, as our roster counts page shows. Here’s the breakdown:

New York Knicks

The Knicks had a full 15-man roster heading into trade deadline day, but they sent out three players – Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Svi Mykhailiuk – in the multi-team deal that landed Josh Hart in New York.

As a result, the Knicks have been carrying just 13 players on standard contracts since February 9 and will have until this Thursday to add at least one player to their roster. Two-way player DaQuan Jeffries has been mentioned as a candidate for a possible promotion.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets didn’t make any mismatched trades at the February 9 deadline, but they already had one open roster spot at that time and created another when they bought out Reggie Jackson after acquiring him from the Clippers.

Since Jackson was officially waived on February 12, the Hornets’ two-week window to add a 14th man will close on Feb. 26, so they still have a few days to make a decision on that spot. Promoting a two-way player (Theo Maledon or Bryce McGowens) is one option for Charlotte, though the team could also target a free agent for either a 10-day or rest-of-season contract.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a series of cuts after the trade deadline passed, waiving John Wall and buying out Danny Green and Justin Holiday. They did sign Boban Marjanovic during that time as well, so they only have two openings on their roster, rather than three. But they’ll have to add a 14th man by February 27, two weeks after Holiday was officially cut.

Again, the Rockets could choose to promote a two-way player, but Darius Days or Trevor Hudgins have barely played at the NBA level this season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Houston opt for a free agent or a G League call-up instead.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz had a full roster entering February 9, but traded four players for three in their deal with the Lakers and Timberwolves. They subsequently created two more roster openings by buying out Leandro Bolmaro (on Feb. 16) and Russell Westbrook (on Monday).

Because they first dipped below the 14-man minimum last Thursday, Utah will have until next Thursday (March 2) to add two players.

The 29-31 Jazz remain very much in the play-in mix, just a half-game behind the No. 10 Thunder, so it’s possible they could have interest in a veteran who could contribute immediately.

On the other hand, the Jazz’s deadline moves suggested management wasn’t focused on going all-out for a top-10 seed, so they may rather bring in young players they could develop — Utah could potentially sign those players to multiyear contracts that aren’t guaranteed beyond this season, allowing the team to take cheap fliers on a couple prospects.

[Note: The Jazz reached agreements to sign Frank Jackson and Kris Dunn to 10-day contracts a few hours after this story was published.]

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Rockets Notes: Green, Rebuild, Martin, Fertitta

February 19th, 2023 at 8:34am CST by Luke Adams

A left groin strain forced Rockets guard Jalen Green to miss the Rising Stars event at All-Star weekend, but the team was “relieved” by the results of the MRI he underwent this week, a source tells Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.

According to Feigen, the Rockets will have a better sense of Green’s return timeline early this week, after he has received a few days of treatment. However, there’s optimism that the injury shouldn’t result in a long-term absence.

If the strain was determined to be more severe, it could have sidelined the former No. 2 pick for most or all of Houston’s remaining 24 games, especially given that the lottery-bound club has no reason to rush one of its cornerstones back to action.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • While general manager Rafael Stone is willing to face criticism for how the Rockets are building their roster, he bristles at critics who suggest that Houston is moving forward without a clear plan in place, per Brian T. Smith of The Houston Chronicle. “If you paid no attention at all, you could say, ‘Hey, these guys don’t even have a plan,'” Stone said. “No, we absolutely have a plan. We told everybody what the plan was. So I don’t think the ‘They don’t have a plan’ is a valid criticism. If someone wants to be skeptical about our ability to execute it, that’s TBD and we’re cognizant of that. And I think this summer we intend to use our cap space and bring in some veterans.”
  • Rockets wing Kenyon Martin Jr., whose name came up frequently in trade rumors during the weeks leading up to February’s deadline, tells Shams Charania of Stadium (Twitter video link) that he’s happy he ultimately stayed put in Houston, where he’s averaging a career-high 26.3 minutes per game this season. “It was kind of weird,” Martin said. “Obviously it was my first time being in a situation where teams wanted me or there’s a possibility that Houston could get rid of me. But at the same time, I understood that it was nothing that I could control. … I kind of just left that up to the front office.”
  • Interviewed by KPRC 2 in Houston at a Mardi Gras event in Galveston, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta shouted what sounded like, “Pray for Victor!,” an apparent reference to top prospect Victor Wembanyama (Twitter video link via Sean Pendergast of SportsRadio 610). The 13-45 Rockets have the NBA’s worst record and would have the best lottery odds in this year’s draft if the season ended today, but the league still may not love seeing one of its team owners already talking about targeting a specific prospect, with so much time left in the season.
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