Rockets Rumors

2023’s Most Valuable Traded Second-Round Picks

March 17th, 2023 at 10:29am CST by Luke Adams

Fans of lottery-bound NBA teams will be keeping a close on the bottom of the league’s standings down the stretch because of the effect that “race” will have on the draft order and lottery odds for the 2023 first round.

However, it’s not just the first round of the draft that’s worth keeping an eye on. Those reverse standings will also dictate the order of the draft’s second round, and an early second-round pick can be nearly as valuable as a first-rounder.

Here are a few of the traded 2023 draft picks that project to land near the top of the second round:

From: Houston Rockets
To: Indiana Pacers or Boston Celtics
Current projection: No. 32

The Rockets initially traded their 2023 second-round pick, with top-32 protection, to Memphis at the 2020 trade deadline as part of a Bruno Caboclo/Jordan Bell swap. The Celtics later acquired that top-32 protected second-rounder during the 2020 offseason in the deal that sent the draft rights to No. 30 pick Desmond Bane to the Grizzlies.

As part of the complex four-team James Harden blockbuster in early 2021, the Rockets agreed to send the Pacers their 2023 second-round pick if it ends up at No. 31 and No. 32. So the Pacers are on track to receive that Houston second-rounder if it’s one of the first two picks of the round, while the Celtics would get it otherwise.

We took a closer look at this draft-related subplot of the NBA’s race to the bottom last week, noting that the Pacers could instead end up with a pick in the early 50s if the Rockets’ second-rounder slips to No. 33. Missing out on Houston’s pick wouldn’t be quite as bad for the Celtics, as we outline below.

From: Portland Trail Blazers
To: Boston Celtics or Oklahoma City Thunder
Current projection: No. 36

If the Rockets’ second-round pick ends up at No. 31 or No. 32, the Celtics will almost certainly receive Portland’s pick instead. If Houston’s second-rounder lands at No. 33, Boston would get it, while the Thunder would acquire the Blazers’ pick.

Should the Blazers’ recent slide continue, their second-rounder may not actually be much less favorable than Houston’s — only four spots separate them for the time being.

The Blazers originally gave up their 2023 second-round selection when they acquired Rodney Hood from Cleveland just ahead of the 2019 deadline. It was subsequently flipped to the Pistons (in the 2019 offeason), the Clippers (in the 2020 offseason), the Hawks (at the 2021 deadline), and finally the Celtics in a three-team trade during the summer of 2021.

When they acquired Mike Muscala from the Thunder last month, the Celtics agreed to send OKC the least favorable of their two 2023 second-round picks, which is why the Thunder would receive Portland’s pick if Boston gets Houston’s.

From: Chicago Bulls
To: Washington Wizards
Current projection: No. 37

The Bulls remain in the thick of the play-in race in the Eastern Conference, so it’s possible their second-rounder could slide all the way to the mid-40s if they make the play-in tournament and then earn a playoff spot. However, the Wizards – the team the Bulls are chasing for the No. 10 spot in the East – have extra incentive to stay ahead of Chicago, thereby increasing the value of this pick.

The Wizards acquired this Bulls second-rounder with top-36 protection when they sent Otto Porter Jr. to Chicago at the 2019 deadline. The Bulls agreed to remove the protections as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Tomas Satoransky later that year.

Interestingly, the Wizards actually traded Chicago’s 2023 second-rounder to the Lakers as part of the Russell Westbrook blockbuster in the summer of 2021, but got it back from L.A. a couple months ago in the Rui Hachimura deal.

From: Indiana Pacers
To: Sacramento Kings
Current projection: No. 38

Like the Bulls, the Pacers are still in the play-in race in the East, so there’s no guarantee this pick will land in the top 10 of the second round. But Indiana has a banged-up roster and doesn’t appear overly incentivized to make the play-in tournament.

This pick changed hands in the Domantas Sabonis/Tyrese Haliburton mega-deal at the 2022 trade deadline. Technically, the Spurs would receive it if it lands between Nos. 56 and 60, but we can safely rule out that possibility at this point.

Other picks to watch:

Given how congested the play-in races are in each conference, there are a handful of other second-rounders whose value could surpass that of a couple of the picks listed above.

For instance, the Jazz‘s second-round pick is currently controlled by the Hornets, the Spurs own the Raptors‘ second-rounder, and the Thunder will acquire the Wizards‘ second-rounder if it’s more favorable than OKC’s own pick.

Trade Breakdown: Eric Gordon To The Clippers (Three-Team Deal)

March 15th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the eighth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a three-team deal between the Clippers, Rockets and Grizzlies…

On February 9:

The Clippers acquired Eric Gordon (from the Rockets) and three second-round picks (from the Grizzlies; details here).
The Grizzlies acquired Luke Kennard (from the Clippers) and the right to swap a 2026 second-round pick with Los Angeles.
The Rockets acquired Danny Green (from the Grizzlies), John Wall (from the Clippers), and the right to swap the Bucks’ 2023 first-round pick for either the Clippers’ or Thunder’s 2023 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable; top-six protected; from Clippers)

The Rockets’ perspective:

Shortly after the trade, both Green and Wall were subsequently released by Houston; Green reached a buyout agreement and later signed with Cleveland, while Wall remains a free agent.

Multiple reports indicated that Houston was interested in keeping Green around, but obviously he had other plans. That makes a lot of sense — the three-time champion is 35 years old and the Rockets are the second-worst team in the NBA after finishing dead last in each of the previous two seasons.

After reaching a buyout with Wall over the summer, the Rockets wound up reacquiring him in this deal following his tumultuous first stint with the franchise. Considering he called his initial go-round “beyond trash,” it’s not surprising that he was waived outright this time.

The Rockets were rumored to be looking for a first-round pick for Gordon for at least a couple of years, and instead of receiving an extra one, they’re going to end up swapping a pick they control for one with much higher upside.

At the time of the trade, the Bucks were 37-17 and the Clippers were 31-27. Those picks would have landed at Nos. 28 and 18, respectively, last month.

The Bucks proceeded to go on a long winning streak and are now 50-19, holding a three-game lead over Boston for the best record in the NBA. Milwaukee’s 2023 first-rounder would currently land at No. 30.

The Clippers are now 36-33. Their first-rounder remains at No. 18.

However, the 34-35 Thunder only trail the Clippers by two games, and they have swap rights with the Clippers – if Oklahoma City passes L.A. in the standings, Houston would instead receive the Thunder’s 2023 first-rounder.

If both the Clippers and Thunder miss the playoffs – which is certainly possible, given how jumbled the standings are – then the Thunder would receive the more favorable of the two lottery picks. Assuming the second pick falls outside of the top six (highly likely given how the NBA’s draft lottery works), that pick would go to Houston, with the Clippers receiving Milwaukee’s pick.

All of that is basically out of the Rockets’ control. The Clippers could easily finish as high as fourth in the West or could drop out of the playoffs entirely – six teams trail them in the standings by three games or less.

Long story short, there’s a chance the Rockets could receive a late lottery pick, but perhaps more likely a pick in the late teens, in exchange for Gordon and a pick in the 27-to-30 range.

Gordon was having a down season for Houston, is 34 years old, and makes $19.57MM this season (his $20.92MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed). I’m honestly surprised the Rockets were able to get as much for him as they did, given those factors.

The Rockets also created a $3.09MM traded player exception in this deal, as noted in our TPE tracker.

The Clippers’ perspective:

Gordon is eight years older than Kennard, and it would be a little surprising if the Clippers bring him back next season on his current contract. Still, he’s a better all-around player than Kennard, and the Clippers did get back three second-rounders from Memphis to somewhat offset giving up a higher value first-rounder to Houston.

While Kennard has remained a highly efficient three-point shooter with the Clippers in ’22/23, he battled a calf strain that sidelined him for significant stretches – he only appeared in 35 of 58 games. He also wasn’t a major part of the team’s playoff rotation a couple years ago and can be frustratingly passive on offense considering he’s a minus on the defensive end – it’s bizarre to see a 44.9% three-point shooter not be more aggressive looking for his shot.

Wall struggled mightily on both ends with Los Angeles, posting a .408/303/.681 shooting line (.498 true shooting percentage) while playing porous defense. Shedding his salary in this deal could be viewed as a bonus, as there were rumors that the Clippers might buy him out if they couldn’t trade him.

Guard play was a major weakness on the roster, and Gordon was a necessary upgrade for a team hoping to compete for a title. Sure, the Clippers took on the most risk in this trade, but you could easily make the argument that not making changes would have been an even bigger risk – both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can opt out of their contracts in 2024, and the team still owes unprotected first-rounders and swaps to the Thunder through 2026 as part of the George trade.

I didn’t view Gordon as having a relatively down season with Houston as that big of a deal. His driving ability was still there, his true shooting percentage (57.2%) remained above average for a guard, and can you really blame him for being frustrated by the situation?

When Gordon signed with the Rockets in 2016, they were a regular playoff team that had already made one conference finals appearance (in 2015). They came very close to making the Finals in 2018, but wound up losing in seven games.

The following season, the Rockets won 53 games and were eliminated by Golden State again, after which Gordon signed an extension. They made the playoffs again in ‘19/20, but everything turned to dust when James Harden requested a trade. The past few seasons Gordon became the de facto elder statesman on a roster full of very young players.

That’s not to say Gordon is still in his physical prime; that came when he first entered the league back in 2008 with the Clippers, the team that selected him No. 7 overall out of Indiana. A couple of significant knee injuries from 2011-12 changed that trajectory.

However, Gordon still evolved into a valuable player, leaning into his long-range shooting and quick first step to attack players off the dribble with Houston. He still possesses those qualities in his 15th NBA season.

In 10 games (25.0 MPG) in his second stint with the Clippers, he’s averaging 10.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG and 2.4 APG on .447/.386/.762 shooting splits (.592 TS%). He has posted a 3.43 assist-to-turnover ratio in those contests, which is an impressive mark.

One of Gordon’s strengths is that he’s self-aware. He knows his job isn’t to be a primary scorer anymore — it’s to shoot open threes, leverage his shooting to drive and draw fouls, or kick out to open shooters. He’s a smart, unselfish passer on the perimeter.

Another positive attribute that Gordon brings to the Clippers is that at 6’3″ and 215 pounds, he has a low center of gravity and a strong core, which allows him to defend forwards. Houston often ran switching schemes in the past, and he’s comfortable as part of a five-out offense as well – two things that Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue favors in the postseason.

Gordon has played the entire fourth quarter in each of the past three games, all victories. I expect that to continue as the Clippers attempt to secure a playoff spot and make a deep postseason run.

The Grizzlies’ perspective:

Memphis had the best available information on Green’s recovery from a torn ACL, as he spent the majority of the season rehabbing – he had just made his season debut on February 1, eight days before the trade deadline. I’m sure the Grizzlies valued his locker room presence, but if they didn’t think he could contribute down the stretch, there wasn’t much to be gained by keeping him around, as his contract was set to expire at the end of the season.

Kennard, on the other hand, is only 26 years old, nine years younger than Green. He brings a much-needed skill to the Grizzlies, who rank just 25th in the league in three-point percentage (34.3%).

The lefty sharpshooter out of Duke led the league in three-point shooting last season and has matched that stellar mark (44.9%) in 46 total games in ‘22/23. Kennard is also under team control for multiple seasons – he’ll make $15.42MM in ’23/24 and the Grizzlies will hold a team option for the same salary in ’24/25.

Kennard has shown in the past that he has some play-making chops as well, averaging 4.1 APG back in ‘19/20 with Detroit. Through 11 games (21.0 MPG) with Memphis, he’s averaging 6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.9 APG on .404/.455/1.000 shooting splits (.611 TS%).

The Grizzlies’ roster is full of players in their early-to-mid 20s, with veteran center Steven Adams the elder statesman at 29. Kennard fits perfectly with their timeline as far as that goes, and he’s young enough that he could certainly improve in the coming years.

As previously mentioned, Kennard is not a great individual defender, but he does fine in team concepts and is generally in the right spots. The Grizzlies have a few excellent defensive players on the roster, so perhaps they will be able to mask some of his weaknesses.

This could be viewed as both a short- and long-term upgrade for the Grizzlies, and adding Kennard’s extra salary this season (he makes $14.42MM this season vs. Green’s outgoing $10MM salary) didn’t affect the team much financially, as they’re still well below the luxury tax threshold.

Kennard’s mid-sized contract isn’t onerous given his age and shooting ability. The Grizzlies could conceivably use him as a salary-matching piece in the future as well if they’re so inclined.

Two-to-four second-round picks seemed to be a sweet spot for landing role player upgrades at the deadline. The Grizzlies moved three to land Kennard, but still have all of their own future first-rounders – along with one extra in 2024 – if they want to make a major trade down the line.

It’s interesting that the Clippers agreed to send Kennard to a Western Conference rival, particularly one they might have to face in the postseason. I’m sure he would have a little extra motivation if the Grizzlies are matched up against the Clippers in the playoffs.

Checking In On Active, Expired 10-Day Contracts

March 12th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Lester Quinones‘ 10-day contract with the Warriors expired after Saturday’s game, opening up a spot on Golden State’s 15-man roster.

Quinones remained with the Santa Cruz Warriors in the G League for most of the 10 days he spent under contract with Golden State. He was recalled to the NBA on Saturday and was technically active for last night’s game vs. Milwaukee, but didn’t play at all and has yet to make his NBA debut.

As we outlined when Quinones first signed his 10-day deal, his addition to the 15-man roster allowed the Warriors to continue using both of their two-way players, Anthony Lamb and Ty Jerome. Lamb has since reached his limit of 50 games on the active roster, while Jerome is now at 47 games and will be ineligible to play his final three unless Golden State fills its 15th roster spot again.

It will be interesting to see how the Warriors manage their two-way contracts and their 15-man roster going forward. Promoting Lamb to the standard roster would make him eligible to play in the rest of the team’s regular season games and in any postseason contests, in addition to freeing up Jerome for three more games. However, it would limit Golden State’s roster flexibility going forward and would force the club to waive a player on a guaranteed contract in order to sign anyone else before the end of the season.

Quinones is one of two players whose 10-day contract expired this week, joining Willie Cauley-Stein of the Rockets. Houston is now carrying just 13 players on standard deals and must add a 14th man (Cauley-Stein again or someone else) by March 23 to meet the NBA’s minimum roster requirements.

Three more players on 10-day contracts will see their deals expire tonight, while two others will expire on Monday night. Here’s the breakdown of the 10-day contracts currently active around the NBA:

Jamaree Bouyea, Wizards (runs through 3/12)
Sam Merrill, Cavaliers (3/12)
Eugene Omoruyi, Pistons (3/12)
Kris Dunn, Jazz (3/13) *^
Meyers Leonard, Bucks (3/13) *
DaQuan Jeffries, Knicks (3/14) ^
Nerlens Noel, Nets (3/15)

Players marked with an asterisk (*) are on their second 10-day deals with their respective teams. That means Dunn and Leonard would have to be signed for the rest of the season if their clubs want to retain them beyond Monday night, since they aren’t permitted to sign three standard 10-day contracts with the same team.

Players marked with a caret (^) are on clubs that don’t currently have full 15-man rosters. The Jazz are actually currently carrying just 13 players and will need to get back up to at least 14 by March 18. So even if they lock up Dunn to a full-season contract, they’ll need to sign one more player before next Saturday.

The Knicks, meanwhile, would be at 13 players on their standard roster if they don’t re-sign Jeffries to a second 10-day deal and would have up to two weeks to add a new 14th man.

Kevin Porter Jr. Able To Return Quickly After Thigh Bruise

March 11th, 2023 at 9:52pm CST by Arthur Hill

Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. was relieved to be able to play tonight after missing just one game with a left thigh bruise, according to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. Porter expected to be day-to-day after an earlier injury to his left big toe, but he wound up missing 20 games. “It was definitely a frustration,” he said. “I want to play as much as I can. Definitely, missing those 20 games, I want to get as many games back that I missed. Injuries are part of the game. You just have to react and do your work after it happens.”
Spurs rookie Julian Champagnie was a big scorer at St. John’s, but he tells Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News that he doesn’t mind being a role player while he tries to earn a steady NBA job. Champagnie has spent most of the season in the G League, but he got to play in a pair of games against the Rockets last weekend. “I don’t need too many shots,” he said. “I am a guy who fills the gap, and I am perfectly fine with that. It’s what I like to do anyway.”

Southwest Notes: Cauley-Stein, Smith, Wembanyama, Morant

March 9th, 2023 at 11:59pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Veteran center Willie Cauley-Stein‘s 10-day deal with the Rockets has expired, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Feigen adds that Houston does not have any players on the docket to fill his roster spot immediately.

Given that the Rockets are now carrying just 13 players on standard contracts, one below the NBA’s required minimum, they’ll have two weeks to add a 14th player. As Feigen notes, Cauley-Stein did not play while with Houston.

There’s more out of the Southwest Division:

Rockets rookie Jabari Smith Jr. has struggled in an uneven first pro season, Feigen writes in a separate article. Selected with the third pick in 2022 out of Auburn, the 6’10” power forward has exhibited enticing defensive flashes, but has struggled offensively, Feigen notes.
The rebuilding Spurs‘ current players can’t help but acknowledge the ongoing sweepstakes for the right to draft top 2023 prospect Victor Wembanyama, writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. “It’s hard not to avoid looking at the bottom,” forward Keita Bates-Diop said. “I don’t like looking at it when I see it.” Veteran San Antonio forward Doug McDermott also weighed in: “I know everyone is probably aware of (the standings). You see it on social media and it’s kind of hard to escape. But it’s not like I’m checking on my phone every night to see where we’re at.”
Warriors power forward Draymond Green weighed in on the plight of troubled Grizzlies All-Star point guard Ja Morant on his self-titled podcast. Green opined that Morant could learn from All-Star veterans LeBron James and Stephen Curry, both of whom have been model citizens while operating as the de facto faces of the league. (hat tip to Evan Barnes of The Memphis Commercial Appeal for the transcription). “You can’t be the face of the NBA putting the NBA in harm’s way,” Green said. “A team competing at a championship level, No. 2 seed in the West, it’s being thrown away.”

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 8th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks

2022/23: $14.32MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).

A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.

In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.

The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.

Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: $1.93MM team option
Stock: Up

The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.

Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?

As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.

Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies

2022/23: $11.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).

There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.

For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.

Tre Jones, G, Spurs

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Up

The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.

After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.

While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.

Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.

Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans

2022/23: $6.8MM
2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Down

A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.

Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.

He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

The Second-Round Subplot In NBA’s Three-Team Race To The Bottom

March 8th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Following a recent hot streak by the Hornets, three clubs have separated themselves from the pack in the NBA’s race to the bottom. Barring a major surprise, the Pistons (15-51), Rockets (15-50), and Spurs (16-49) will finish as the NBA’s worst three teams.

Even if Charlotte (21-46) doesn’t pick up another win for the rest of the season, San Antonio would have to go 5-12 the rest of the way to tie the Hornets in the standings. That may not sound like a tall order, but it has taken the Spurs 31 games to get their last five wins.

Detroit and Houston would need six more victories to have even a remote shot at catching the Hornets — it has taken the Pistons 28 games to get their last six wins and the Rockets 33 games to do so.

Given that the Hornets have actually been quite competitive lately and no other team has fewer than 27 victories, we should be able to safely pencil in the Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs as the three teams who will have a 14% shot at the No. 1 pick in this May’s draft lottery.

Of course, even though the NBA’s worst three teams will have equal odds to land the No. 1 pick (and a top-four pick), it still pays to finish at the very bottom of the standings — the NBA’s worst team can’t fall out of the top five as a result of the lottery, whereas its third-worst team could theoretically slide all the way to No. 7.

However, there’s another intriguing subplot in this three-team “race.” The Rockets’ final place in the standings will have a major impact on where a pair of Eastern Conference clubs are drafting in the second round this June.

The Pistons and Spurs control their own second-round picks, but due to a series of trades, protections, and swaps, the Rockets’ second-round pick will be sent to either the Pacers or the Celtics. Indiana will get it if it lands at No. 31 or No. 32, while Boston would receive it if it’s No. 33 (or later). Whichever team doesn’t get Houston’s second-round selection would instead end up with the least favorable of the Mavericks’ and Heat’s second-rounders. As of today, that’d be Miami’s pick at No. 50.

[Note: Boston would have the ability to swap that second-round pick for Portland’s second-rounder, but Indiana wouldn’t.]

You’re almost definitely not going to find a franchise player in the early 30s of a draft, but the hit rate on those picks might be a little better than you think. From 2018-21, for instance, players selected in the 30-36 range included Jalen Brunson, Devonte’ Graham, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Porter Jr., Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Desmond Bane, and Herbert Jones.

The Pacers know first-hand the value of having an early second-round pick, having used the No. 31 selection in the 2022 draft to nab Andrew Nembhard. Head coach Rick Carlisle has expressed a belief that Nembhard will end up being a top-12 or top-15 player in the ’22 class.

If a team isn’t zeroed in on a specific player in that section of the draft, an early second-round pick could be used as a valuable trade chip that secures multiple future second-rounders or a veteran rotation player. Again, this is something the Pacers know from experience — it cost them four second-rounders to acquire the No. 31 pick in the 2021 draft. And in 2019, they were able to acquire T.J. Warren and three future second-rounders in exchange for that year’s No. 32 pick and a little cash.

Conversely, a pick in the range of No. 50 (which is where the less favorable of Miami’s and Dallas’ pick figures to end up) is more likely to be used on a two-way player. In terms of trade value, you’d be hard-pressed to get more than cash or perhaps a single far-off second-round pick.

Determining where Houston’s second-round pick will land obviously won’t be nearly as dramatic as learning which team wins the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, but the impact on the Pacers and Celtics won’t be insignificant. Boston will be rooting for the Rockets to finish the season strong, moving that pick to No. 33, while Indiana will be hoping for another extended losing streak in Houston.

NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots

March 8th, 2023 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

It has been nearly a month since the NBA’s trade deadline passed, and the post-deadline transaction wire continues to be pretty busy, with teams that opened up roster spots at or since the deadline still working to fill them.

Clubs are also making plenty of roster moves with their players on two-way contracts, opening up two-way slots by either promoting those players to standard deals or by cutting them to take a flier on another prospect.

It has been a few weeks since we last checked in on which teams have open roster spots, so it’s worth taking a closer look at that today. If a team isn’t listed below, you can assume it has a full 17-man roster made up of 15 players on full-season standard contracts and a pair on two-way deals.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

Let’s dive in…

Teams with an open 15-man roster spot:

Boston Celtics
Charlotte Hornets
Houston Rockets *
Los Angeles Lakers
New York Knicks *
Utah Jazz ^

* These teams have one open roster spot and one filled by a 10-day contract.
^ This team has two open roster spots and one filled by a 10-day contract.

The Celtics, Hornets, and Lakers have pretty straightforward roster situations — they’re carrying 14 players on standard, rest-of-season contracts, with open spot left to fill. The Celtics and Lakers may be more inclined to fill their openings with a veteran who could provide depth in the postseason if necessary. The Hornets, if they don’t re-sign restricted free agent Miles Bridges this season, will likely add a younger prospect on a team-friendly multiyear deal.

The Rockets and Knicks each have one open spot on their standard 15-man roster and are also carrying a player on a 10-day deal — Willie Cauley-Stein for Houston and DaQuan Jeffries for New York. Both players will be eligible for second 10-day contracts when their current pacts expire. If the Rockets and/or Knicks want to go in another direction, they’d have up to two weeks to sign a 14th man.

As for the Jazz, they’re only carrying 13 players on their standard roster and one of those players (Kris Dunn) is on his second 10-day contract with the club. Even if Utah intends to sign Dunn to a rest-of-season deal when his current contract is up, the team will need to make another signing before next weekend to adhere to the NBA’s minimum roster requirements.

Teams with full 15-man rosters that include a 10-day contract:

Brooklyn Nets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards

The Nets (Nerlens Noel), Cavaliers (Sam Merrill), Pistons (Eugene Omoruyi), Warriors (Lester Quinones), Bucks (Meyers Leonard), and Wizards (Jamaree Bouyea) all have a player on a 10-day contract occupying their 15th roster spot, so they could easily open up a roster spot if need be.

Of those players, only Leonard is on his second 10-day deal with the same team, so the others could all be re-signed for another 10 days. The Wizards, however, are reportedly set to sign NBL standout Xavier Cooks to fill the spot currently occupied by Bouyea.

Teams with an open two-way contract slot:

Charlotte Hornets
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns

The Hornets (Bryce McGowens), Knicks (Jeffries), Magic (Admiral Schofield), and Suns (Ish Wainright) have all promoted two-way players to their standard roster since the trade deadline and have yet to fill those two-way openings.

Orlando’s G League affiliate, the Lakeland Magic, is fighting for an NBAGL spot, so there’s some incentive to fill that two-way opening sooner rather than later. Conversely, there’s probably not much urgency for Phoenix to sign another player to a two-way contract, since the Suns don’t have a G League affiliate of their own and two-way players won’t be eligible for the NBA postseason.

Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise if all four of these spots are filled in the coming weeks.

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

March 7th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:

Picks that will be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.

Southwest Notes: Porter, Morant, Kyrie, Jones, Vassell

March 3rd, 2023 at 7:49am CST by Luke Adams

After returning on Wednesday from a 20-game absence due to a toe injury, Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. admitted that he still wasn’t 100%, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. However, Porter considers it important to play during the final stretch of the season to try to carry some positive momentum into the offseason.

“There’s definitely going to be some tolerable pain going on,” Porter said. “I want to play. This is the best I can get it. Can’t get it 100 percent, so I will play.

“Just the passion and love I’ve got for the game. I’ve been away, been trying to do everything I can to get back on the court. Twenty games later, I’m at this point. This is the best I can get as far as my toe. The pain’s not too bad. I can play through it.”

As Feigen observes, injuries have prevented the Rockets from getting an extended look at their young core together this season, so the hope is that they can stay relatively healthy down the stretch. The starting lineup that Houston employed on Wednesday – Porter alongside Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Alperen Sengun, and Kenyon Martin Jr. – is probably the one the team would like to lean on down the stretch, but it has been used just four times so far this season.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

Grizzlies guard Ja Morant, whose alleged involvement in a pair of off-court incidents had been previously reported, has been accused of threatening a security guard at a Memphis mall, according to reporting from Molly Hensley-Clancy of The Washington Post. The Post’s report also stated that the 17-year-old who was punched by Morant last summer during a pickup game claimed that the Grizzlies star went into his house and reemerged with a gun visible in his waistband. Morant’s lawyer and agent put out statements on Twitter vehemently disputing that claim, but didn’t address the incident involving the security guard.
On Thursday, two days after expressing a need to scale back the pressure he’s putting on himself with his new team, Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving scored 40 points to complement Luka Doncic‘s 42 in a victory over Philadelphia. The Mavs are still just 2-4 in games the two stars have played together, but are confident that the wins will come, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “They’ve got to work through the kinks,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his backcourt duo. “But I think at the end of the day, we’ll be happy with what we have.”
The Spurs got two of their top rotation players back on Thursday, as Tre Jones (left foot soreness) returned from a five-game absence, while Devin Vassell (left knee surgery) played for the first time since January 2. Both players were on minute limits, but had positive plus-minus ratings in a victory over Indiana, with Vassell scoring 18 points in 23 minutes. “It’s refreshing, man,” Spurs center Zach Collins said, per Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. “These guys mean so much to our team. We’ve had a lot of guys hurt, one through 15. But Tre and Devin were starters for us. To get them back, is going to make the game a lot easier for us.”

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