Rockets Rumors

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:


Picks that will be protected

  • Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
  • Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

  • Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
  • Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
  • Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
  • Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
  • Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
  • Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
  • Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
  • Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
  • Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

  • Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
  • Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
  • Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
  • Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.

Southwest Notes: Porter, Morant, Kyrie, Jones, Vassell

After returning on Wednesday from a 20-game absence due to a toe injury, Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. admitted that he still wasn’t 100%, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. However, Porter considers it important to play during the final stretch of the season to try to carry some positive momentum into the offseason.

“There’s definitely going to be some tolerable pain going on,” Porter said. “I want to play. This is the best I can get it. Can’t get it 100 percent, so I will play.

“Just the passion and love I’ve got for the game. I’ve been away, been trying to do everything I can to get back on the court. Twenty games later, I’m at this point. This is the best I can get as far as my toe. The pain’s not too bad. I can play through it.”

As Feigen observes, injuries have prevented the Rockets from getting an extended look at their young core together this season, so the hope is that they can stay relatively healthy down the stretch. The starting lineup that Houston employed on Wednesday – Porter alongside Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Alperen Sengun, and Kenyon Martin Jr. – is probably the one the team would like to lean on down the stretch, but it has been used just four times so far this season.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • Grizzlies guard Ja Morant, whose alleged involvement in a pair of off-court incidents had been previously reported, has been accused of threatening a security guard at a Memphis mall, according to reporting from Molly Hensley-Clancy of The Washington Post. The Post’s report also stated that the 17-year-old who was punched by Morant last summer during a pickup game claimed that the Grizzlies star went into his house and reemerged with a gun visible in his waistband. Morant’s lawyer and agent put out statements on Twitter vehemently disputing that claim, but didn’t address the incident involving the security guard.
  • On Thursday, two days after expressing a need to scale back the pressure he’s putting on himself with his new team, Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving scored 40 points to complement Luka Doncic‘s 42 in a victory over Philadelphia. The Mavs are still just 2-4 in games the two stars have played together, but are confident that the wins will come, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “They’ve got to work through the kinks,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his backcourt duo. “But I think at the end of the day, we’ll be happy with what we have.”
  • The Spurs got two of their top rotation players back on Thursday, as Tre Jones (left foot soreness) returned from a five-game absence, while Devin Vassell (left knee surgery) played for the first time since January 2. Both players were on minute limits, but had positive plus-minus ratings in a victory over Indiana, with Vassell scoring 18 points in 23 minutes. “It’s refreshing, man,” Spurs center Zach Collins said, per Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. “These guys mean so much to our team. We’ve had a lot of guys hurt, one through 15. But Tre and Devin were starters for us. To get them back, is going to make the game a lot easier for us.”

Jae Crowder: “I’d Do It All Over Again”

Jae Crowder has no regrets about his holdout in Phoenix or the months of missed games as he waited for a trade to be completed, telling Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, “I’d do it all over again.” 

The Bucks had been considered among the favorites to land Crowder, but they weren’t able to work out a deal directly with the Suns. After Phoenix agreed to ship Crowder to Brooklyn in the Kevin Durant trade, Milwaukee offered draft assets to the Nets and everything was folded into a four-team deal.

The Bucks were thrilled to finally obtain Crowder, and they see him filling the defensive specialist role that P.J. Tucker did during their championship run in 2021. He has fit in seamlessly so far, averaging 19.3 minutes off the bench as Milwaukee has gone 4-0 since he has arrived.

“I think this team has what it takes to win a championship,” Crowder said. “That’s my main goal right now. I think once you win a championship, the rest of that stuff will take care of itself. My main goal, honestly, is not thinking about free agency or the summer. It’s all about winning the championship. I think that’s our locker room goal, and when I came into it, I knew that was the goal of the team.”

Crowder’s relationship with the Suns was reportedly damaged beyond repair when head coach Monty Williams informed him last offseason that he would no longer be a starter. Crowder refused to report to training camp, opting for individual workouts twice each day while he waited for a trade to materialize.

Sources tell Scotto that even when Cameron Johnson tore his meniscus in November, Crowder never considered returning to the Suns and the team didn’t discuss asking him to come back.

“Nah, there wasn’t a chance I was going to play there,” Crowder said. “Both sides knew that the road had come to an end. That came to an end way before Cam got hurt. I wasn’t going back on it, and they weren’t going back on it.”

Phoenix received offers for Crowder from several teams, Scotto adds. The Hawks, Rockets and Suns had exploratory discussions that would have sent Crowder to Atlanta along with Landry Shamet, while Eric Gordon and Kenyon Martin Jr. would have gone to Phoenix and John Collins would have wound up in Houston, but Scotto’s sources say that deal was never close to being completed.

Scotto adds that the Hawks also attempted to acquire Crowder and Shamet in a three-way trade that would have included the Jazz, but a disagreement over the draft picks Utah would have received prevented the teams from making progress. Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley would have gone to the Suns in that version of the deal.

Rockets Notes: Harden, Green, Porter, Kaminsky

The possibility that Sixers guard James Harden might return to Houston in free agency this summer remains as strong as ever, writes Kelly Iko of The Athletic. League sources expect the Rockets, who will have ample cap space, to aggressively pursue Harden once he turns down his $35.64MM player option. Sources close to Harden confirm to Iko that he’s considering the move.

Harden forced his way out of Houston two years ago after the loss of coach Mike D’Antoni and general manager Daryl Morey. His relationship with the organization appeared confrontational — he reported late and out of shape to training camp and having numerous clashes with coaches and teammates — but sources tell Iko that it never became acrimonious. Harden was disappointed that the Rockets were no longer contenders, and management was unhappy with how he handled the situation.

Harden still has a good relationship with team owner Tilman Fertitta and has maintained strong ties in the Houston area, Iko adds. Also, former Sixers minority owner Michael Rubin, a good friend of Harden’s who played a role in his desire to come to Philadelphia, sold his stake in the team last June.

Money will be an important factor in Harden’s decision, Iko notes, which gives the Sixers an advantage. Holding his Bird rights, they can offer up to a projected $272MM over five years, while Houston and any other potential suitor will be limited to four years at about $202MM. Iko states that if he stays in Philadelphia, Harden will expect to be compensated for taking a deal below his market value last summer to help the team sign several free agents.

There’s more from Houston:

  • After returning Tuesday from a groin injury, Jalen Green is thankful that the damage wasn’t worse, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. The injury sidelined the second-year guard for two weeks and forced him to miss the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend. “I actually called Coach the other day and was just telling him, ‘The last 24 games, I’m with you,’” Green said. “’I’m ready to lock in. Whatever we’ve got to do, we’ve got to string together some wins.’”
  • Coach Stephen Silas is optimistic that Kevin Porter Jr., Green’s backcourt partner, will be able to return Wednesday night, Feigen tweets. Porter has been out of action since January 11 with a foot contusion.
  • Today is the last day that players can agree to a buyout and still be eligible for the postseason with their new team, which makes it significant for Frank Kaminsky, notes Ben DuBose of RocketsWire. Of the four veteran players the Rockets acquired at the trade deadline, Kaminsky is the only one left on the roster — John Wall, Danny Green, and Justin Holiday were all released.

Sengun Needs To Improve Defense

  • Rockets big man Alperen Sengun is cognizant that he’s not getting crunch time minutes because he needs to improve defensively, Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle tweets. “I just need to be focused on pick-and-roll defense, I think. I can do better job,” he said.

Willie Cauley-Stein Signs 10-Day Deal With Rockets

5:50pm: Cauley-Stein’s 10-day contract with Houston is now official, the team announced in a press release. It will run through March 8, covering the Rockets’ next five games.


9:33am: The Rockets will sign veteran center Willie Cauley-Stein to a 10-day contract, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. 

Cauley-Stein signed with Houston in October, but was waived before the start of the regular season. He has been playing for the team’s G League affiliate in Rio Grande Valley, averaging 9.4 points and 6.2 rebounds in 10 regular season games and 6.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 16 Showcase Cup contests.

The 29-year-old appeared in 20 combined games with the Mavericks and Sixers last season. He was waived by Dallas in mid-January and signed a 10-day contract with Philadelphia in late February, but has been out of the league since then.

Cauley-Stein was selected by the Kings with the sixth pick in the 2015 draft and has played 422 games in seven seasons.

The Rockets have been carrying just 13 players with standard contracts since waiving Justin Holiday on February 13. They were required by league rules to fill at least one of their roster openings by today.

Eason Thinks He's The Top Rookie Defender

  • Tari Eason‘s offensive numbers are solid, if unspectacular for a rookie — he’s averaging 8.7 points on .442/.347/.750 shooting splits in 19.6 minutes per game. However, the 21-year-old forward has made his presence felt on the other end of the court for the Rockets, as Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle writes. “I see a lot of people talking about some of the best defenders in the league,” Eason said as part of a larger quote. “I want to be one of those dudes they talk about. I feel like I’m the best rookie defender in this class.” Eason ranks sixth among rookies with 5.6 rebounds per night, per Feigen, and second in steals and deflections. His 2.8% steal percentage ranks fifth in the entire NBA, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Community Shootaround: NBA’s Race To The Bottom

Coming into the 2022/23 season, there was some concern that the presence of Scoot Henderson and (especially) Victor Wembanyama at the top of the 2023 draft class could result in some pretty aggressive tanking from the bottom third of the NBA’s teams.

It hasn’t played out that way so far though, due to a competitive race for the top 10 spots in each conference. In the West, the top 13 teams all either hold a playoff or play-in spot or are no more than 1.5 games back of the No. 10 seed. It’s not quite as congested in the East, but the conference’s 13th team is only four games out of a play-in spot.

As a result, there have been only four teams in full-on “race for Wembanyama” mode, and one of those four clubs hasn’t exactly been in tanking mode as of late, winning its last four games. Here’s what the bottom of the NBA’s standings look like as of Sunday morning:

  1. Houston Rockets (13-46)
  2. San Antonio Spurs (14-47)
  3. Detroit Pistons (15-46)
  4. Charlotte Hornets (19-43)
  5. Orlando Magic (25-36)
  6. Indiana Pacers (27-35)
  7. Chicago Bulls (27-33)
  8. Los Angeles Lakers (28-32)
  9. (tie) Portland Trail Blazers / Oklahoma City Thunder / Washington Wizards (28-31)

Given that the odds for the No. 1 pick are the same for each of the NBA’s three worst teams, it seemed as if we’d get a four-team race for those three spots at the bottom of the standings. But the Hornets have won their last four games and appear far better positioned to continue getting victories than the Rockets (losers of eight in a row and 23 of their last 26), the Spurs (losers of 15 in a row and 21 of 22), and the Pistons (losers of four in a row and seven of their last eight).

Of course, if the Hornets were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d still end up with just 29 wins, so they may end up with the NBA’s fourth-worst record even if they finish strong. After all, the Bulls, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Wizards all seem motivated to make the play-in.

The Magic, Pacers, and Thunder are perhaps candidates for stealth end-of-season tanks in order to secure top-five lottery odds, since none of those clubs expected to be a playoff team this season. But they’ve been competitive all season and would probably have to start ruling out some of their top players due to injuries if they want to start winning less often (similar to what Portland did last year).

As for the race to the bottom among the NBA’s three worst teams, it’s hard to bet against the Rockets, who also finished with the league’s worst record in 2021 and 2022. But the Spurs are giving them a run for their money with their recent stretch of futility, posting an abysmal -15.8 net rating during their 15-game current losing streak. And the Pistons seem happy to experiment with new lineups while incorporating recently added players.

We want to know what you think. How will the race for lottery positioning play out the rest of the way? Which team will finish as the NBA’s worst? Has the Hornets’ recent success locked them into the fourth spot in the lottery standings? Are there any teams with 25 or more wins that you expect to go into full-on tank mode in the coming days or weeks?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

Texas Notes: Dieng, McDermott, Graham, Kleber, Stone

Spurs veterans Gorgui Dieng and Doug McDermott will be tasked with helping to ensure that San Antonio’s young players continue to grow as the year winds down, writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News.

The team is currently mired in a 14-game losing streak en route to a prime lottery pick. McDonald writes that some of the coaching burden falls onto the team’s two most experienced players, McDermott and Dieng, who can operate as unofficial coaches on the floor.

How long both players remain on the roster beyond this season is anyone’s guess. Dieng, 33, is signed to a one-year minimum deal, and will be a free agent this summer. McDermott, 31, is the team’s highest-paid player, and is set to earn $13.8MM in the final season of his very tradable current deal, 2023/24.

There’s more out of the Lone Star State:

  • New Spurs guard Devonte’ Graham is still acclimating to his new environs, McDonald reports in another piece. After arriving in San Antonio by way of the Pelicans in a trade, he has yet to suit up for his new club in a home game. “I’m just trying to get adjusted,” Graham said. “I just packed enough to maintain for a couple of weeks… I’m just living out of a suitcase right now.”
  • Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber indicated to Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) that he expects he will miss at least Dallas’ next two games as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. Previous reporting suggested Kleber was hoping to return by the end of February.
  • Rockets team president Rafael Stone sat done for an extensive discussion about the team’s rebuild with Kelly Iko of The Athletic. “When we came into (the rebuild), we didn’t really have talent on the roster,” Stone said. “We didn’t have any cap space, we didn’t have any draft picks. We now have been able to recoup our draft picks, we have more cap space this summer than anybody else and I think we have a very talented roster… We need to translate those things into a team that becomes competitive and hopefully starts winning and winning big over time. And that’s the challenge in front of us starting this summer, but continuing on.”