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Stein’s Latest: Nash, Hornets, Pacers, Wall, Turner, Mavs

April 25th, 2022 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nets‘ season could be over in a matter of hours, as the team faces an elimination game at home on Monday night, down 3-0 to Boston in its first-round series.

While a first-round sweep would be a disastrous outcome for a club that entered the season as a championship favorite and would certainly increase scrutiny on head coach Steve Nash, one source close to the situation tells Substack writer Marc Stein that he doesn’t expect Nash to become a fall guy for a disappointing playoff run.

As Stein and his source observe, Nash has faced an inordinate number of challenges during the 2021/22 season, including Kyrie Irving‘s vaccination decision, James Harden‘s trade request, and injuries to players like Kevin Durant and Joe Harris. Stein suggests that Nash shouldn’t avoid blame for the Nets’ struggles, but says there are many larger issues in play as well.

Here’s more from Stein:

  • A concern about player discipline both on and off the court was among the factors in the Hornets‘ decision to part ways with head coach James Borrego, league sources tell Stein.
  • The Pacers expressed some interest in Rockets guard John Wall early in the 2021/22 season, but it didn’t go anywhere and it happened before they acquired Tyrese Haliburton, according to Stein. In other words, Indiana is probably an unlikely offseason suitor for Wall.
  • After seriously considering trading Myles Turner during the ’21/22 season, the Pacers now hope to keep the big man long-term, sources tell Stein. Turner will be extension-eligible this offseason as he enters a contract year.
  • While some Jazz staffers were reportedly upset about seeing Knicks executive William Wesley and Julius Randle courtside at Game 1 of their series vs. Dallas, the Mavericks weren’t particularly bothered by it, since it “didn’t really change anything” in their view, Stein writes. The Knicks are believed to have interest in Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell and Mavs guard Jalen Brunson, and Dallas is aware of New York’s interest in Brunson. Of course, Brunson is an unrestricted free agent this summer, while Mitchell is under team control for at least three more years.
  • Some teams have asked the NBA to consider making qualification for the play-in tournament contingent on the Nos. 9 and 10 teams finishing within a certain distance of the No. 8 seed, says Stein. It’s unclear whether the league will tweak that rule going forward or leave the format as is.
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Southwest Notes: Pelicans, Nance, Wall, Spurs

April 24th, 2022 at 3:31pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Pelicans are aware that evening their current first-round playoff matchup against the top-seeded Suns will require them to keep their cool, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com.

In the middle of Game 3’s second quarter, Pelicans big man Jaxson Hayes was ejected from the contest, an eventual Suns win, after aggressively pushing Phoenix forward Jae Crowder. New Orleans would go on to lose at home by a narrow margin (114-111). The Suns now have a 2-1 series edge.

Pelicans head coach Willie Green acknowledged that Hayes let his emotions get the best of him in that instance, but that the team overall has been effective at managing its emotions in a playoff environment.

“I thought we’ve done a really good job of that this series,” Green said of the Pelicans’ approach to their emotions. “We had a moment — the Jaxson-Jae Crowder thing. But other than that, it was a close game coming down the stretch, the last five minutes. They pulled away a bit. But we’re doing a lot of good. We just have to be better down the stretch.”

New Orleans will face off against the Suns in a big Game 4 today.

There’s more out of the Southwest Division:

  • Pelicans forward Larry Nance Jr. is confident in the team’s core even without star forward Zion Williamson, writes Logan Murdock of The Ringer. “We’re the real deal,” Nance tells Murdock. “This team is here and this team is for real… And we have a top-10 asset that hasn’t even touched the court yet.” Murdock notes that three promising New Orleans rookies have emerged as key additions to the club’s playoff rotation: Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Trey Murphy III. Star veterans CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have proven they belong in these playoffs thus far.
  • Rockets veteran point guard John Wall is expected to opt in to the final season on his max deal, worth $47.3MM in 2022/23. Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report suggests that Wall’s agents and Houston brass will discuss the possibility of a buyout arrangement if the Rockets are unable to find a trade partner for Wall before the 2022 draft in June. Should Wall be bought out, the Heat and Clippers may have interest in adding the former All-Star, says Fischer.
  • With the team’s youth movement fully underway, the Spurs are ready for an offseason typical of San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich: one full of Popovich’s exacting standards, per Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News. Third-year forward Keldon Johnson knows what to expect from Popovich, who wants to see Johnson improve his defense. “He’s hard on me because he wants me to be great,” Johnson said. “If it was anything different, I wouldn’t want that.” McDonald writes that San Antonio All-Star guard Dejounte Murray will need Johnson, forward Devin Vassell, and rookie shooting guard Joshua Primo to develop for the Spurs to return to the playoffs.
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Lakers Rumors: Westbrook, Wall, Monk, THT, Nunn, Vogel, James

April 20th, 2022 at 5:59pm CST by Rory Maher

Michael Scotto and Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype explore potential offseason moves for the Lakers in their latest podcast. Scotto asked three different league executives for their opinions regarding Russell Westbrook‘s trade value, with slightly different results.

One said he had no interest in acquiring Westbrook whatsoever. The second executive called Westbrook’s contract “terrible” and said it’s viewed very negatively around the league, and would only be dealt for multiple other salary dumps.

The third executive was a little more circumspect in his assessment, noting that Westbrook’s $47MM player option for 2022/23 is likely to be perceived as a negative asset, but certain teams might take it on in order to get rid of long-term contracts.

Gozlan doesn’t think the Lakers’ front office will consider using the waive-and-stretch provision on Westbrook, considering the team will finally be clear of Luol Deng‘s dead money cap hit ($5MM) this summer. Teams might be interested trading for Westbrook if he indicates he’d accept a buyout agreement for a slightly discounted rate — perhaps $5-10MM less — which Gozlan believes is the high-end of the range he might earn as a free agent.

Both Gozlan and Scotto think that the framework for a potential Westbrook/John Wall swap will be revisited this summer, with one GM telling Scotto that he thinks the Rockets guard can still be a high-level backup in the NBA, or even a fringe starter.

Here are some more Lakers rumors:

  • Scotto queried four executives to gauge the value of unrestricted free agent Malik Monk, and they projected his next deal to be in the range of the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6.4MM) to the non-taxpayer mid-level ($10MM). As of now, the most the Lakers can offer Monk is the taxpayer mid-level.
  • Expect Los Angeles to again dangle Talen Horton-Tucker ($10.26MM), Kendrick Nunn ($5.25MM) and draft compensation to improve the roster, says Scotto.
  • League executives agree that former coach Frank Vogel was the scapegoat for the team’s disastrous season, with one noting that the well-respected Vogel should “be able to pick his spot as a high-level assistant if that’s something he wants to do,” according to Scotto.
  • LeBron James‘ future in L.A. is the biggest story surrounding the franchise, writes Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. James is eligible for a two-year, $97MM extension in August, which could secure his place on the roster through 2025. However, sources at Klutch Sports say that the agency and James have yet to discuss the star’s future, per Pincus.
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Texas Notes: Brunson, Kleber, Rockets, Walker

April 19th, 2022 at 7:34pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Mavericks point guard Jalen Brunson, an unrestricted free agent this summer, scored a career-high 41 points during the Mavericks’ 110-104 Game 2 victory over the Jazz Monday night, as Tim MacMahon of ESPN writes. The win knots Dallas’ first-round series with Utah at 1-1.

Dallas explored a five-out offensive attack, capitalizing on a Jazz weakness (guarding the perimeter). Brunson’s performance proved critical for a Mavericks club missing its lone All-Star in Luka Doncic, still sidelined with a left calf strain.

“I know he’s dying to get out there soon, but he’s got to take his time,” Brunson said of his backcourt mate. “I know he’s doing everything in his power to not let his team down, but he has to make the decision that’s best for him. Not necessarily knowing where he is [in the recovery process], but I just know that he’s a competitor and he wants to be out there. We’re trying to hold it down for him.”

Following a breakout fourth season in Dallas and thanks to this playoff start, the market for Brunson should be robust this summer. He’s averaging 32.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 5.0 APG and 1.0 SPG across the first two games of the Utah series. For the regular season, Brunson registered averages of 16.3 PPG, 4.8 APG, and 3.9 APG, along with a shooting line of .502/.373/.840.

There’s more out of the Lone Star State:

  • Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber, dealing with a severe long-range shooting slump, seems to have righted the ship across his first two playoff games with Dallas this season, per Eddie Sefko of Mavs.com. Kleber had been converting 18.8% of his three-point looks since returning from the All-Star break, but is now 10-of-16 from deep over the first two games of the Utah series. “Obviously it is a big boost, but even in the games before when I didn’t shoot well, I think overall I still did many things and we won as a team,” Kleber said. “It doesn’t matter if I get a hot day and make my shots or somebody else does. All we care about is getting the win. Obviously, it feels really good to make those shots because the end of the season wasn’t my prettiest.”
  • The rebuilding Rockets face a variety of roster choices during the 2022 offseason. Kelly Iko of The Athletic previews what could be an action-packed summer for Houston in a new piece. Iko examines the fits of expected high-lottery draft picks Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero and Jaden Ivey; the future of $47.4MM man John Wall; potential extensions for Kevin Porter Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate, and more.
  • The Spurs face an interesting decision during the 2022 offseason, as fourth-year shooting guard Lonnie Walker IV is set to hit restricted free agency, writes Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News. The 6’4″ wing has indicated that he is “hopeful” to sign a new deal with San Antonio. “Everyone talks about what I do for the community, but nobody talks about what the community does for us as players — the love and energy and everything they instill in us,” Walker said. “I embrace the fact the community embraced me. I’ve been having a hell of a time.” The 34-48 Spurs finished with the No. 10 seed and a play-in tournament appearance this season. In 70 games for San Antonio, Walker averaged a career-high 12.1 PPG and 2.2 APG, plus 2.6 RPG, in 23.0 MPG. He posted shooting splits of .407/.314/.784 this season.
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Trevelin Queen Named NBAGL Finals MVP

April 15th, 2022 at 12:44pm CST by Luke Adams
  • After being named the G League MVP for 2021/22, Rockets two-way player Trevelin Queen also took home the Finals MVP award, averaging 34.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 3.5 APG on 56.1% shooting in a pair of Rio Grande Valley Vipers victories over the Delaware Blue Coats. Danielle Lerner of The Houston Chronicle takes a closer look at Queen’s path to the NBA and explores what’s next for him. “I got emotional (signing a two-way contract earlier this season) because I’ve been waiting my whole life, but I just know there’s more work to do,” Queen said. “I know I can do more than the two-way, so I just want to let them know.”
  • In a mailbag for The Athletic, Kelly Iko answers readers’ questions about the Rockets‘ long-term view of a Jalen Green/Kevin Porter Jr. backcourt, the prospects Houston should target with Brooklyn’s first-round pick, and which free agents might be of interest to the team.
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Potential 2022 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 15th, 2022 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

  • A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
  • A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the 2020/21 season. We outlined those tweaks at the start of the season.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Bruce Brown met the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, increasing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,736,102. The Nets decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it. Had he fallen short of the starter criteria, Brown only would have been eligible for a qualifying offer worth around $2MM and his free agency could have played out very differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who did not meet the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,228,448.

Seven of the 14 players selected with lottery picks in the 2018 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2021, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason.

Of the other seven, the three players listed above failed to meet the criteria. Bagley is the biggest loser in the trio — his qualifying offer would’ve been worth approximately $14.76MM if he had met the starter criteria. Sexton’s would’ve been about $8.56MM, while Knox’s would’ve been $7.92MM.

Even with the amount of his qualifying offer lowered a little, Knox likely won’t receive a QO at all, making him an unrestricted free agent. Bagley and Sexton are much safer bets for QOs.

Top-14 picks Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Mohamed Bamba (Magic), each met the starter criteria, locking in their QO amounts at $16.42MM and $10.1MM, respectively. Miles Bridges (Hornets) also met the starter criteria, as detailed in the next section.

Jerome Robinson was the only top-14 pick from ’18 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — he’s no longer on an NBA roster and won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer this summer.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A player who fell into this category would see the amount of his qualifying offer increase to $7,921,300. Bridges, the No. 12 overall pick, was the only player to qualify.

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Bridges’ qualifying offer will increase from about $7.46MM to $7.92MM, a modest bump. It shouldn’t change the outlook of his free agency, since he’ll almost certainly receive a lucrative long-term offer.

Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons looked like one of the best candidates to join Bridges in this group. He needed to make 41 starts this season for Portland, but only got to 30 before he was shut down for the season with a left knee injury. His qualifying offer will remain at $5.76MM, but that shouldn’t have a major impact on his free agency, since he’ll likely work out a multiyear deal with the Blazers.

Meanwhile, because Kings wing Donte DiVincenzo was a full-time starter for the Bucks in 2020/21, he only needed to make seven starts this season to meet the starter criteria. However, he ultimately started just once for Milwaukee and Sacramento, even when he was playing heavy minutes down the stretch for the Kings.

DiVincenzo’s qualifying offer will remain at $6.6MM, which actually could have a tangible effect on his free agency — if he doesn’t get a multiyear offer with a starting salary much higher than his qualifying offer, accepting the QO and reaching unrestricted free agency in 2023 may be DiVincenzo’s best option. Presumably, that’s why his camp reportedly wasn’t thrilled that he was still coming off the bench at the end of the season.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,869,012.

Of course, it’s very possible neither Dort nor Tate will even become a free agent this summer, since their contracts both include team options for 2022/23.

The Thunder could decide to turn down Dort’s minimum-salary option for next season in order to make him a restricted free agent this year instead of an unrestricted free agent next year, but there’s no guarantee they’ll go that route. If they do, his QO would be worth $4.87MM instead of $2.22MM.

Meanwhile, there’s no incentive for the Rockets to decline Tate’s option, since he’ll still be eligible for restricted free agency in 2023, so the amount of his potential qualifying offer this summer will be rendered moot.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, Hornets wing Cody Martin (1,866 minutes), Clippers swingman Amir Coffey (30 starts), and Trail Blazers forward CJ Elleby (28 starts) are a few who were in the ballpark of the starter criteria, but none got there. Martin, Coffey, Elleby, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

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And-Ones: Monthly Awards, Hollis-Jefferson, Cooper

April 12th, 2022 at 3:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Rockets guard Jalen Green and Raptors forward Scottie Barnes were named the Rookies of the Month for March/April in the Western Conference and Eastern Conference, respectively, the NBA announced on Monday (via Twitter).

Green got off to an up-and-down start this season but finished strong, averaging 22.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 3.2 APG on .484/.395/.763 shooting in 22 games in March and April. Barnes helped the Raptors secure the No. 5 seed in the East by putting up 16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG on 50.5% shooting in his last 22 contests.

The NBA also announced its Coaches of the Month for March/April on Tuesday (Twitter link). Mavericks coach Jason Kidd won the Western award for a 16-5 run to the end of the season; Ime Udoka, whose Celtics finished with a 15-4 stretch, earned the honor in the East.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

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Rockets Notes: Wall, Porter, Offseason, Silas

April 12th, 2022 at 9:44am CST by Luke Adams

John Wall ended up sitting out the entire 2021/22 season, as the Rockets‘ front office was unable to find a trade it liked involving the veteran point guard. However, general manager Rafael Stone is confident that won’t be the case again in 2022/23 as Wall enters the final year of a contract that will pay him more than $47MM next season.

“I think there’s a real market for John,” Stone said on Monday, per Kristie Rieken of The Associated Press. “I think we’ll find a deal that will work for him and for us, and if one doesn’t materialize, we’ll we’ll cross that bridge (of a possible buyout) if and when it occurs. But that that is not something he’s focused on, and is not something I’m focused on.”

While it’s possible there could be a small handful of teams interested in discussing a deal for Wall, the Rockets will be hard-pressed to get anything of value for him — even with just one year left on his contract, the 31-year-old has negative trade value due to his exorbitant cap hit.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • Rockets point guard Kevin Porter Jr., who will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, admitted he was thinking about his contract situation earlier in the 2021/22 season and believes it negatively impacted his play, as Danielle Lerner of The Houston Chronicle relays. “At the beginning of the season, I kind of put too much pressure on myself thinking about that type of thing,” Porter said. “Once I eased my mind off of it, I started to play better. So I don’t really want to put no mind to it. I love Houston, and they love me, so I’m sure that I’ll be here for a minute.”
  • The Rockets posted an NBA-worst record of 20-62 in 2021/22, but both Stone and head coach Stephen Silas believe the team’s young players improved over the course of the year. Although Silas acknowledged that Houston will still have a young team next season and won’t become a contender overnight, he suggested on Monday that his expectations will be higher. “We really started at zero this year with a lot of guys,” Silas said, according to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. “So getting to the point where we played an 82-game season with these guys and their roles will be similar next year … we’ll still be starting at a much higher place than we were this season as far as understanding. (The Rockets will not be) so bland on both ends of the floor because there’ll be a much higher level of understanding when it comes to the young guys.”
  • In a separate story for The Houston Chronicle, Feigen explores a number of offseason questions facing the Rockets, including whether Porter will be extended, what the team will do in the draft, and what will happen with Wall and some other veteran trade candidates on the roster. Feigen adds that Houston intends to bring back Silas for 2022/23, though he and the front office will have to be sure they remain on the same page with the rebuilding plan going forward.
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Rockets Rumors: Wall, Wood, Tate, Porter, Green

April 8th, 2022 at 9:50am CST by Luke Adams

While there was never any real doubt, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype confirms that Rockets guard John Wall is going to exercise his player option for the 2022/23 season. That option is worth approximately $47.4MM, which is far more than Wall could realistically expect to earn next season if he were to opt out of his deal to become a free agent.

The Rockets were unable to work out a trade involving Wall last offseason or during the 2021/22 season, but will try again this summer, according to Scotto, who says Wall’s reps at Klutch Sports would likely engage in buyout talks with Houston if the club still can’t find a viable trade. Wall’s preference would be to have a role on a winning team, Scotto adds.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • Appearing on the HoopsHype podcast with Scotto, Ben DuBose of Rockets Wire said he gets the sense from conversations with people around the league that there are still some off-court concerns with Christian Wood. The big man might be a better fit in a contender’s locker room with a clear veteran star and leader in place, per DuBose.
  • Also on the HoopsHype podcast, Scotto noted that the Rockets are prioritizing cap room for 2023, which means that they may prefer to wait to lock up players like Jae’Sean Tate and Kevin Porter, who will be extension-eligible this offseason and could be long-term pieces.
  • Jalen Green got off to a slow start this season, but his strong second-half play – including an ongoing streak of five straight games with 30+ points – bodes well for the Rockets’ rebuild, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic, who says there should be “no denying his status or stature” going forward.
  • In an Insider-only article for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks previewed the Rockets’ offseason, touching on Porter’s case for an extension, Wall’s status, and what the team will do with Wood and Eric Gordon, among other topics.
  • Within his own look ahead to the Rockets’ offseason at The Athletic, Iko says he’d be surprised if Wood is still with the team after next season’s trade deadline and suggests a team-friendly extension for Porter could be in the range of $10-14MM per year.
  • In case you missed it, Rockets two-way player Trevelin Queen was named the G League MVP for 2021/22.
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Rockets’ Trevelin Queen Named 2021/22 G League MVP

April 8th, 2022 at 7:36am CST by Luke Adams

Shooting guard Trevelin Queen, who is on a two-way contract with the Rockets, has been named the NBA G League’s Most Valuable Player for the 2021/22 season, the league confirmed in a press release. Our JD Shaw was the first to report the news (via Twitter).

Queen signed a two-way deal with Houston in December, but has only appeared in 10 games with the NBA club this season. The 25-year-old saw more action in the G League, emerging as the go-to scorer for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers as the Rockets’ G League affiliate posted a 24-10 regular season record and claimed the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

In 19 NBAGL games, Queen averaged 25.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and an eye-popping 3.3 steals in 35.0 minutes per contest, recording a shooting line of .480/.337/.796. It was his second season with the Vipers after going undrafted out of New Mexico State in 2020.

Queen beat out a pair of other players on NBA rosters – Pistons guard Saben Lee and Lakers two-way guard Mason Jones – in the G League’s MVP vote. Lee and Jones finished second and third, respectively.

Queen wasn’t the only member of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers to take home some hardware this week. The team’s head coach, Mahmoud Abdelfattah, was named the NBAGL Coach of the Year, while general manager Travis Stockbridge earned G League Executive of the Year honors.

Because Queen’s two-way contract doesn’t cover the 2022/23 season, he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency this summer.

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