- Rockets rookie Josh Christopher is growing into an increased role with the team, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle examines. Christopher has played over 15 minutes in seven straight games. He finished with 30 points and two steals against Minnesota on Sunday, shooting 11-of-14 from the floor.
Jalen Green has been showing off the scoring ability that convinced the Rockets to take him with the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. When Houston decided this week to hold out its veterans, possibly for the rest of the season, Green began to focus on getting the shots he wanted. The result has been three straight 30-point games, including a career-best 33 Friday night.
“He’s a shot maker,” coach Stephen Silas said. “He can get to the rim. He can get to the free throw line. He can shoot the mid-range. Just kind of happy for him that the work he puts in translates and he can be further confirmed that he’s really good by working and producing and working more and producing more.”
Green became a starter right away, but it took him a while to adjust to the NBA, Feigen notes. He shot just 37.7% from the field and 28.4% from three-point range for the first part of the season, but since turning 20 on February 9 those numbers have improved to 46.5% and 40%. Green believes he benefited from participating in the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend.
“All-Star was just a confidence builder, being in that atmosphere, playing in that,” he said. “On top of that, me and (assistant coach John Lucas) being in the gym working, all the time. Just trusting my work.”
There’s more from Houston:
- Fellow rookie Usman Garuba had to wait much longer for his first NBA start, which happened Wednesday, Feigen adds in a separate story. The 23rd pick last year battled through a thigh bruise, a fractured wrist, an ankle injury and COVID-19, which have limited him to 20 total games. “It is very important for him to feel good about his position on this team, his worth for our group,” Silas said. “He’s talented and he hasn’t really gotten a chance this year. We have such high hopes for him and we’re so positive about him, but he needs to feel it as well. I think having the actual game experience will help him with that.”
- Auburn’s Jabari Smith would be the best fit for the Rockets in the draft, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic. Iko sees Smith’s size, shooting and defensive abilities as a perfect fit for Houston’s current roster and says questions about his playmaking won’t be a concern with Green and Kevin Porter Jr. handling those duties.
- Iko expects Porter to remain the team’s point guard unless the Rockets land the fourth or fifth pick and draft Purdue’s Jaden Ivey. Porter will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer.
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.
Jalen Brunson, G, Mavericks
2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️
Brunson will never be considered the Mavericks’ best pick in the 2018 draft – that honor belongs to backcourt partner Luka Doncic – but he has become one of that draft’s best values. Selected 33rd overall, Brunson has gradually taken on a larger role in Dallas and is enjoying the best year of his career in 2021/22, averaging 16.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, and 3.8 RPG on .498/.368/.845 shooting in 73 games (32.0 MPG).
Brunson’s four-year, $6.1MM rookie contract was a great deal for the Mavs, but they’ll have to give him a massive raise if they want to keep him. Because he’s a second-rounder who signed for four years, the 25-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent this summer rather than restricted. That should give him more leverage in contract negotiations, as should the interest he’s reportedly receiving from the Knicks and Pistons.
The rumored asking price for Brunson’s next deal is $80MM for four years, which seems within reach — other guards like Fred VanVleet, Lonzo Ball, and Malcolm Brogdon have signed similar contracts in recent years, and Brunson’s representatives can make a case that his résumé matches up favorably with what those players had accomplished when they finalized their respective deals.
Dennis Schröder, G, Rockets
2021/22: $5.89MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️
Schröder’s stock has yo-yo’d up and down drastically in the last two seasons. After famously turning down an extension offer worth a reported $80MM+ from the Lakers, Schröder settled for a one-year, $5.9MM deal with Boston in free agency. He outperformed that contract early in the season, prompting some discussion about how the Celtics – who would have only held his Non-Bird rights at season’s end – wouldn’t be able to afford to bring him back.
However, Schröder eventually fell back down to earth and became a trade chip for the C’s, who sent him to Houston. Initially viewed as a possible buyout candidate for the lottery-bound Rockets, the veteran guard earned some early praise for his impact on the team’s young guards. But Schröder’s overall numbers in 15 games in Houston, including a .393 FG% and a .328 3PT%, probably won’t convince offseason suitors that he deserves a raise on his 2022/23 salary.
Lonnie Walker, G/F, Spurs
2021/22: $4.45MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️
After a promising 2020/21 campaign in which he averaged a career-high 11.2 PPG in 60 games (25.4 MPG), Walker got off to a dismal start this season, shooting just 38.5% from the field and 29.3% on threes through his first 51 games (22.5 MPG).
He has played far better since the trade deadline, putting up 18.7 PPG on .471/.388/.667 shooting in 13 appearances (27.2 MPG) before he went down with a back injury on March 18. Having rejuvenated his value as he nears free agency, Walker is set to return from that back issue on Wednesday.
The Spurs have been better with Walker off the court than on it, and his overall numbers this season still aren’t great, but he looks like a much safer bet to receive a $6.3MM qualifying offer (making him a restricted free agent) than he did two months ago.
Kyle Anderson, F, Grizzlies
2021/22: $9.94MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️
Anderson’s stock has dipped a little this year, but that’s in large part due to how good he was in 2020/21, when he posted a career-best 12.4 PPG and 3.6 APG and established himself as a legitimate three-point threat for the first time (36.0% on 3.8 attempts per game).
Those numbers are all down this year (7.4 PPG, 2.6 APG, .323 3PT%) as Anderson has moved to the bench and seen his minutes cut back. The Grizzlies’ overall success, including a 53-23 record, works in Anderson’s favor, but his +3.2 net rating is among the worst on the team.
While Anderson is still a versatile defender who provides some value on the wing, teams interested in him this summer will probably view last season’s increased offensive output as an aberration rather than a sign of things to come on that end of the floor.
Tony Snell, G/F, Pelicans
2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️
The only player on the Pelicans’ 15-man roster who doesn’t have a contract for next season, Snell was a throw-in the CJ McCollum trade last month. He had a few solid games after arriving in New Orleans, but has since fallen out of the rotation and probably isn’t part of the team’s plans beyond this season.
Snell signed a minimum-salary contract last summer with Portland following a season in which he made 56.9% of his three-point attempts. With that number down to 35.3% in 2021/22, another minimum-salary deal is probably a best-case scenario for him this offseason.
Rockets veterans Christian Wood (left hamstring tightness), Eric Gordon (right groin soreness), and Dennis Schröder (left shoulder soreness) were held out of Monday’s game vs. San Antonio and seem unlikely to play any more this season, says Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
As Feigen outlines, none of those injuries are invented, but it’s probably safe to assume Wood, Gordon, and Schröder wouldn’t all be sidelined by “tightness” and “soreness” if the Rockets were in the midst of a playoff race. Instead, the team is invested in securing a top spot in the draft lottery — currently, Houston is in a three-way tie for the NBA’s worst record (20-56).
With Wood, Gordon, and Schröder out, prospects like Daishen Nix and Usman Garuba will likely see more action down the stretch for the Rockets, joining fellow rookies Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Josh Christopher in the regular rotation, Feigen writes. Nix and Garuba each played 14 minutes in Monday’s loss to the Spurs.
Fans of the Magic, Rockets, and Pistons won’t be especially invested in the playoff and seeding races taking place near the top of the NBA’s standings during the last two weeks of the regular season. However, they’ll be closely monitoring their respective teams’ place in the standings for lottery purposes.
Entering action on Monday, Orlando, Houston, and Detroit have identical 20-55 records, meaning they’re all tied for the top spot in the NBA’s draft lottery, as our Reverse Standings show.
Because the lottery format dictates that the league’s bottom three teams all have identical odds for the No. 1 overall pick (14%) and a top-four pick (52.1%), this year’s race to the bottom isn’t quite as consequential as it would have been a few years ago under the NBA’s old lottery system.
Still, since each bottom-three team has a 47.9% chance of falling outside of the top four, its position entering the lottery is crucial — the league’s worst team can’t fall any further than No. 5 on lottery night, whereas the third-worst team could slip all the way to No. 7.
The Magic have played some of their best games of the season in recent weeks, winning home games vs. Minnesota and Golden State and picking up victories in New Orleans and Toronto earlier this month. They’re 4-5 in their last nine games, but have the NBA’s ninth-hardest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.
The Rockets looked a week ago like the odds-on favorite to finish the season atop the lottery standings, but with three wins in their last four games, that’s now far from a certainty. Their remaining schedule is the league’s sixth-easiest, per Tankathon, and includes five home games, with just two on the road.
The Pistons, meanwhile, are 8-10 in their last 18 games, but just 2-8 in their last 10. Their remaining schedule is the league’s 11th-hardest, per Tankathon, and they have more games on the road than at home.
Of course, we shouldn’t exclude Oklahoma City from this conversation. At 21-53, the Thunder are just 1.5 games ahead of the three aforementioned clubs after losing 11 of their last 12 games. They’ll host the Pistons on Friday in what should be an important game — the winner of that contest could put itself out of the running for the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings.
The Thunder have the NBA’s ninth-easiest remaining schedule, with an equal split of home and road games. Of course, it’s worth noting that two of OKC’s upcoming games are against a tanking Portland team that is probably the NBA’s actual worst right now (even if the Blazers’ full-season record doesn’t reflect that). It would be a little surprising if the Thunder manage to lose both those meetings.
What do you think? Which team will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and claim the top spot in the draft lottery standings? Will any of these clubs lose the rest of their games? Will there be a tie for the No. 1 spot, necessitating a coin flip?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with yours thoughts on this season’s race to the bottom.
- Veteran guard Gerald Green has the option to play in Puerto Rico, but he remains focused on landing an NBA opportunity, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle writes. Puerto Rican club Gigantes de Carolina announced Green’s signing on Saturday, but his agent cautioned it’s simply an option for after the season. Green retired from professional basketball in October, joined the Rockets‘ coaching staff, then unretired and joined the team’s G League affiliate in January.
2:43pm: The Rockets have officially signed Lamb to a two-way contract, the team announced today (via Twitter).
7:32am: The Rockets are signing forward Anthony Lamb to a two-way contract, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’ll be the second time in two seasons that Houston has signed Lamb to a two-way deal.
Lamb, 24, played in the G League bubble with the Canton Charge and Rio Grande Valley Vipers in 2020/21 after going undrafted out of Vermont in 2020. His solid showing for Houston’s G League affiliate (the Vipers) earned him a two-way contract with the Rockets last March.
He averaged 5.5 PPG and 2.9 RPG in 24 games (17.3 MPG) for Houston, then accepted his two-way qualifying offer during the offseason. However, he was waived in October so the Rockets could claim Garrison Mathews.
Lamb subsequently returned to the Vipers for the 2021/22 season, earning a 10-day call-up with the Spurs in January before rejoining Houston’s G League team. In 26 regular season games (33.9 MPG) for Rio Grande Valley, he has averaged 16.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.4 APG, and 1.3 BPG on .467/.398/.764 shooting.
The Rockets have had a two-way opening since promoting Daishen Nix to their 15-man roster last month, so no corresponding move will be necessary to create room for Lamb.
Many of the players who have signed late-season two-way deals have agreed to tack on a second year to their new contracts. It’s unclear at this point if Lamb’s deal will include a second year or if he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency this offseason.
Rockets starting point guard Kevin Porter Jr. hopes to carve out his own path at the position, writes Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. Feigen notes that Houston is content to see Porter act as something of a score-first point guard, though he has grown as a passer.
“We’re in 2022,” Porter said, in reference to how his play is reflective of the position’s evolution. “I think (Stephen) Curry, he got the ‘traditional point guard’ label out. Since Steph, I don’t think there’s been like a traditional point guard moving forward, except for CP (Chris Paul) and (others) that have been already. I see myself definitely as a point guard, especially for this team. I want to be a point guard for the rest of my career.”
Porter is averaging 14.1 PPG, 6.0 APG and 4.1 RPG for the Rockets this season.
There’s more out of the Lone Star State:
- The rebuilding Rockets are primed to add some blue-chip talent to their young roster in the 2022 draft. Kelly Iko and Sam Vecenie of The Athletic examine how several top projected lottery picks could fit Houston, including 7’1″ Gonzaga big man Chet Holmgren, Auburn forward Jabari Smith, Duke forward Paolo Banchero, Purdue guard Jaden Ivey, Iowa forward Keegan Murray, and Duke wing A.J. Griffin. Iko and Vecenie think it would behoove Houston to not necessarily think too much about positional overlap – particularly with incumbent starting center Christian Wood or point guard Kevin Porter Jr. – when considering draft prospects.
- Veteran Mavericks shooting guard Reggie Bullock is back with Dallas following a three-game absence due to personal reasons, per Tim MacMahon of ESPN (Twitter link). Bullock in the first of a three-year, $30.5MM contract he signed with the Mavericks last summer, has seen his role reduced a little for a 43-28 Dallas team with serious playoff aspirations. After being a starter for the majority of the time since a 2017/18 NBA season spent with the Pistons, the 31-year-old out of North Carolina has toggled between the starting lineup and the bench for Dallas this year.
- Given Spurs guard Dejounte Murray‘s own history with serious injuries (he tore his ACL in 2018), he has recently been reaching out to other NBA players dealing with their own difficult injury rehabs, writes Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News. Murray has talked to Warriors wing Klay Thompson, who has just returned this season after suffering ACL and Achilles tears in consecutive years, as well as Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, who continues to work his way back from a torn left ACL.
- The Rockets recently guaranteed Kenyon Martin Jr.‘s $1.78MM salary for next season and Basketball News’ Mark Schindler details why he believes Martin could turn into one of the top role players in the league.
The Rockets will guarantee the salaries of both Garrison Mathews and Kenyon Martin Jr. for next season, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon (Twitter link).
Both players had non-guaranteed contracts for 2022/23, but Houston decided to reward them for their efforts this season. Mathews is set to earn $2MM next season, while Martin will make $1,782,621, per Spotrac.
Mathews, 25, started the season on a two-way contract but was later converted to a standard deal after several strong performances in place of the injured Jalen Green.
Through 49 games (27.2 MPG) this season, including 21 starts, Mathews is averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.2 RPG on .410/.367/.810 shooting, good for a 61.4 true shooting percentage. His relatively low field goal percentage is deceiving, because 82% of his attempts have come from three-point range.
Martin, 21, was the No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft. He’s in his second season with the Rockets, and his stats from the two seasons are quite similar.
He’s averaging 8.9 PPG and 3.9 RPG this season (20.6 MPG, 63 games) after putting up 9.3 PPG and 5.4 RPG last season (23.7 MPG, 45 games). Martin is a hyper-athletic forward and has some amassed some impressive highlights in his short career.
As MacMahon observes (via Twitter), both players have proven to be valuable role players for the young Rockets, who view the two as pieces of their long-term plans. The rebuilding team is currently 17-49, the second-worst record in the league, as shown in our reverse standings.