Pacers Rumors

2023’s Most Valuable Traded Second-Round Picks

March 17th, 2023 at 10:29am CST by Luke Adams

Fans of lottery-bound NBA teams will be keeping a close on the bottom of the league’s standings down the stretch because of the effect that “race” will have on the draft order and lottery odds for the 2023 first round.

However, it’s not just the first round of the draft that’s worth keeping an eye on. Those reverse standings will also dictate the order of the draft’s second round, and an early second-round pick can be nearly as valuable as a first-rounder.

Here are a few of the traded 2023 draft picks that project to land near the top of the second round:

From: Houston Rockets
To: Indiana Pacers or Boston Celtics
Current projection: No. 32

The Rockets initially traded their 2023 second-round pick, with top-32 protection, to Memphis at the 2020 trade deadline as part of a Bruno Caboclo/Jordan Bell swap. The Celtics later acquired that top-32 protected second-rounder during the 2020 offseason in the deal that sent the draft rights to No. 30 pick Desmond Bane to the Grizzlies.

As part of the complex four-team James Harden blockbuster in early 2021, the Rockets agreed to send the Pacers their 2023 second-round pick if it ends up at No. 31 and No. 32. So the Pacers are on track to receive that Houston second-rounder if it’s one of the first two picks of the round, while the Celtics would get it otherwise.

We took a closer look at this draft-related subplot of the NBA’s race to the bottom last week, noting that the Pacers could instead end up with a pick in the early 50s if the Rockets’ second-rounder slips to No. 33. Missing out on Houston’s pick wouldn’t be quite as bad for the Celtics, as we outline below.

From: Portland Trail Blazers
To: Boston Celtics or Oklahoma City Thunder
Current projection: No. 36

If the Rockets’ second-round pick ends up at No. 31 or No. 32, the Celtics will almost certainly receive Portland’s pick instead. If Houston’s second-rounder lands at No. 33, Boston would get it, while the Thunder would acquire the Blazers’ pick.

Should the Blazers’ recent slide continue, their second-rounder may not actually be much less favorable than Houston’s — only four spots separate them for the time being.

The Blazers originally gave up their 2023 second-round selection when they acquired Rodney Hood from Cleveland just ahead of the 2019 deadline. It was subsequently flipped to the Pistons (in the 2019 offeason), the Clippers (in the 2020 offseason), the Hawks (at the 2021 deadline), and finally the Celtics in a three-team trade during the summer of 2021.

When they acquired Mike Muscala from the Thunder last month, the Celtics agreed to send OKC the least favorable of their two 2023 second-round picks, which is why the Thunder would receive Portland’s pick if Boston gets Houston’s.

From: Chicago Bulls
To: Washington Wizards
Current projection: No. 37

The Bulls remain in the thick of the play-in race in the Eastern Conference, so it’s possible their second-rounder could slide all the way to the mid-40s if they make the play-in tournament and then earn a playoff spot. However, the Wizards – the team the Bulls are chasing for the No. 10 spot in the East – have extra incentive to stay ahead of Chicago, thereby increasing the value of this pick.

The Wizards acquired this Bulls second-rounder with top-36 protection when they sent Otto Porter Jr. to Chicago at the 2019 deadline. The Bulls agreed to remove the protections as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Tomas Satoransky later that year.

Interestingly, the Wizards actually traded Chicago’s 2023 second-rounder to the Lakers as part of the Russell Westbrook blockbuster in the summer of 2021, but got it back from L.A. a couple months ago in the Rui Hachimura deal.

From: Indiana Pacers
To: Sacramento Kings
Current projection: No. 38

Like the Bulls, the Pacers are still in the play-in race in the East, so there’s no guarantee this pick will land in the top 10 of the second round. But Indiana has a banged-up roster and doesn’t appear overly incentivized to make the play-in tournament.

This pick changed hands in the Domantas Sabonis/Tyrese Haliburton mega-deal at the 2022 trade deadline. Technically, the Spurs would receive it if it lands between Nos. 56 and 60, but we can safely rule out that possibility at this point.

Other picks to watch:

Given how congested the play-in races are in each conference, there are a handful of other second-rounders whose value could surpass that of a couple of the picks listed above.

For instance, the Jazz‘s second-round pick is currently controlled by the Hornets, the Spurs own the Raptors‘ second-rounder, and the Thunder will acquire the Wizards‘ second-rounder if it’s more favorable than OKC’s own pick.

Central Notes: Mathurin, G. Allen, J. Allen, Caruso

March 16th, 2023 at 5:39pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Pacers have yet to supply a concrete timeline for rookie guard Bennedict Mathurin‘s return from his right ankle, per Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star. Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle did reveal that Mathurin will not suit up for the team in Thursday’s game against the mighty Bucks.

“He may travel, but he’s not going to play in the next game,” Carlisle said on Wednesday. “I’m not going to give you a timetable, but he’s not going to play in Milwaukee. He is doing better.”

Dopirak adds in another tweet that both Mathurin and second-year swingman Chris Duarte will be sidelined for today’s game. Starters Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, plus reserve point guard T.J. McConnell, are all questionable to suit up. Haliburton is dealing with a right ankle sprain.

There’s more out of the Central Division:

Bucks wing Grayson Allen will also miss Thursday’s bout against the Pacers, his second straight absence, due to right plantar fascia soreness, per Jim Owczarski of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link).
Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen will remain out the team’s next game, Friday against the Wizards, due to a right eye contusion, per Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (Twitter link).
Bulls wing Alex Caruso was held out of a recent team practice due to an unspecified illness, but is currently somewhat on the mend, per K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago (Twitter link). That said, he is questionable to play on Friday for Chicago, when they will square off against the Timberwolves. Should Caruso sit, it is likely that reserve forward Patrick Williams would returning to the club’s starting five.

Central Notes: Pacers, R. Lopez, Merrill, Livers, Omoruyi

March 14th, 2023 at 11:41am CST by Luke Adams

The Pacers‘ decision to hold Tyrese Haliburton (left knee bruise), Myles Turner (sore lower back), and T.J. McConnell (sore back) out of games on Saturday and Monday signaled that the team isn’t exactly going all-out for a spot in the play-in tournament, writes Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star.

While Bennedict Mathurin‘s ankle sprain would have sidelined him in any situation, the other Pacers regulars who sat out those two contests in Detroit likely would’ve been active if Indiana was in win-now mode instead of focusing on player development. As Dopirak notes, the absences of the team’s regulars resulted in big minutes for young players like Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Oshae Brissett, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson, and Jordan Nwora.

“It’s just valuable for our young guys to get this kind of experience,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said. “Drew Nembhard needs this kind of work at the point position. He needs to play 35 minutes a game a few games playing the point position. He played 36 (on Monday). He did a lot of good things in both games. There’s a different rhythm to that position, a different flow.”

Here’s more from around the Central:

Robin Lopez hasn’t had much of a role this season after signing with the Cavaliers as a free agent last summer, but his nine minutes in Sunday’s win over Charlotte with Jarrett Allen out were the most he has played in a game since January. “Just trying to put some size out there,” head coach J.B. Bickerstaff explained (Twitter link via Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com). “With Jarrett being out, we are limited with size. I thought RoLo was good, played hard. Everybody is going to be called upon.”
Within his Cleveland.com story on the Cavaliers‘ new multiyear deal for Sam Merrill, Fedor notes that the club views the swingman as more than just a “one-dimensional” sharpshooter. “I think he was leading or near the top of the G League in taking charges, so he’s got a willingness to scrap, a willingness to help on the defensive end of the floor,” Bickerstaff said. “Can create shots and make shots.”
After being limited to 19 games as a rookie for health reasons, Pistons forward Isaiah Livers is trying to establish himself as part of the team’s future plans with his play this season. James L. Edwards III of The Athletic takes a look at how those efforts are going and explores the strides Livers is making in his second NBA season.
Eugene Omoruyi, who signed a second 10-day contract with the Pistons on Monday, is making a strong case to earn a rest-of-season deal once those 10 days are up, Edwards writes in another story for The Athletic. “I always say, a guy who has his Ph.D. — poor, hungry, driven — they’re going to make it in this league,” head coach Dwane Casey said. “He’s hungry.”

Central Notes: Allen, Antetokounmpo, Matthews, Bagley

March 12th, 2023 at 9:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen didn’t suffer any structural damage to his right eye after getting hit in the face by Miami’s Bam Adebayo on Friday, Chris Fedor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Allen’s eye is bloodshot and puffy but he shouldn’t miss significant time.

“We’re extremely fortunate and he’s extremely fortunate,” Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff said. “Any time you take a shot to the eye like that, there are so many different things that can happen. There’s the other guy’s fingernail and the placement of the hit and all those things that come to mind that it could have been. … It’s something we believe he will recover from pretty quickly.”

We have more from the Central Division:

The right hand soreness that caused Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo to miss Saturday’s game against Golden State is a byproduct of an earlier ailment, Eric Nehm of The Athletic tweets. Antetokounmpo’s current injury stems from the right wrist injury he suffered against the Bulls before the All-Star Game, coach Mike Budenholzer told the media.
Bucks guard Wesley Matthews appears close to returning from a calf strain, according to Budenholzer, Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. Matthews hasn’t played since Feb. 16.
Add Marvin Bagley III to the list of sidelined Pistons players. He’ll miss the rematch with the Pacers on Monday after departing early in Detroit’s loss to Indiana on Saturday due to right ankle soreness, Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press tweets. Jaden Ivey will miss the game due to health and safety protocols, while Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks are nursing injuries. Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo and Cade Cunningham are not expected to play the remainder of the season.

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Play-In Race

March 12th, 2023 at 10:10am CST by Luke Adams

The playoff and play-in races in the Western Conference have gotten more attention than those in the East so far this season, in large part because so many of the West’s would-be contenders – like the Warriors, Clippers, Mavericks, and Lakers – are packed so tightly together among a huge group of teams competing for postseason spots.

Still, with just four weeks remaining in the regular season, the Eastern Conference play-in race has gotten awfully close too. Heading into Sunday’s action, the teams from No. 9 to No. 12 in the East are separate by just a single game, as follows:

Toronto Raptors (32-36)
Chicago Bulls (31-36)
Washington Wizards (31-36)
Indiana Pacers (31-37)

These four teams aren’t exactly on their own island in the Eastern standings — the 34-34 Hawks only have a two-game cushion on Toronto, and the 36-33 Heat aren’t much further ahead. Conversely, the 28-40 Magic probably can’t be counted out of the play-in race yet.

Still, with only about 14 or 15 games left on most teams’ schedules, the most likely outcome at this point is that two of the four teams listed above will earn play-in berths and two will be left on the outside looking in.

The Raptors and Bulls, the two teams currently holding the final two play-in spots, have had somewhat similar seasons. They won 48 and 46 games respectively in 2021/22, clinching top-six seeds in the East, and came into this season expecting to match or exceed last year’s success. Instead, both clubs have been horribly inconsistent, losing more games than they’ve won and experiencing repeated letdowns every time it seemed like they were about to make a breakthrough.

Nonetheless, neither team is throwing in the towel on this season. Despite outside calls for players like OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan to be traded at last month’s deadline, both Toronto and Chicago held firm, with the Raptors actually buying rather than selling by acquiring Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio. Both teams have enough high-end talent to be a spoiler in the play-in tournament if they make it, but they’ll need to perform more consistently down the stretch if they hope to secure playoff spots.

The Wizards also aren’t lacking star talent, with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma enjoying career years alongside longtime standout Bradley Beal. However, that trio hasn’t been quite good enough to make up for a mediocre supporting cast — the team has a plus-4.9 net rating when Beal, Porzingis, and Kuzma play together, but a minus-0.3 rating overall.

Still, with all three of their top players healthy and a more favorable schedule down the stretch than Toronto or Chicago (per Tankathon), the Wizards should still be considered a strong candidate to claim a play-in berth.

The Pacers, meanwhile, looked like they might be ready to tank after they plummeted down the standings during Tyrese Haliburton‘s 10-game injury absence in January (they lost nine of those games). But they’ve bounced back nicely as of late, winning five of their last seven contests and sticking around in the play-in picture.

Of the four teams discussed here, Indiana is the one with the least urgency to make the playoffs this season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Pacers fall off a little and perhaps rest some banged-up players in the season’s final weeks, turning it into a three-team race for the East’s ninth and 10th spots. As inconsistent as the teams directly ahead of them in the standings have been though, it’s too early to rule out the Pacers.

We want to know what you think. Which two teams out of the Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, and Pacers do you expect to make the play-in? Will any of them move into the East’s top eight, either before the regular season ends or by winning two play-in games? Do you see the Magic making a run to turn this into a five-team race, or can they be safely crossed off the list of play-in contenders?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Injury Notes: Brunson, Wagner, Zeller, Mathurin, Kuminga, Duren

March 11th, 2023 at 10:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

X-rays on Jalen Brunson‘s sore left foot were negative, writes Peter Botte of The New York Post. Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters before Saturday’s game that Brunson is feeling “a little better” and is considered day-to-day. He added that the injury has officially been diagnosed as a bruise.

“When he’s healthy enough, he goes,” Thibodeau said. “So just do the rehab, talk to the medical people and when he gets cleared, he’s cleared and then he’ll play.”

Brunson has missed three of the team’s last four games, playing just 19 minutes Thursday in Sacramento. The Knicks have now dropped three in a row, and it’s uncertain if Brunson will be available as their road trip continues Sunday against the Lakers and Tuesday vs. the Trail Blazers.

There’s more injury news to pass along:

X-rays on Magic forward Franz Wagner were negative after he left Saturday’s game with a right ankle injury, tweets Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Wagner has been diagnosed with an ankle sprain.
Heat center Cody Zeller left the same game with a broken nose after a collision with Orlando’s Jalen Suggs in the first quarter, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. Miami was already missing Caleb Martin, who sat out the game with knee soreness, and Duncan Robinson, who was placed in health and safety protocols.
Pacers rookie Bennedict Mathurin sat out Saturday after spraining his ankle this week and has already been ruled out of Monday’s game, per Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star. Coach Rick Carlisle said Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and T.J. McConnell will also be held out Monday.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr said Jonathan Kuminga is considered day-to-day after spraining his ankle during warmups on Thursday, tweets Anthony Slater of The Athletic. Kuminga didn’t play Saturday, but he was on the team’s bench without a walking boot, Slater adds (Twitter link).
Pistons rookie center Jalen Duren feels fully recovered from the bilateral ankle soreness that caused him to miss six games, tweets Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press. “Just being out a couple weeks, I was itching to get back and trying to play and finish out the season strong,” Duren said. “I’ve been working, I don’t know if y’all can tell but I got a little bigger. I feel good.”

Injury Notes: Mathurin, Brunson, Kuminga, Giannis

March 10th, 2023 at 9:14am CST by Luke Adams

Pacers rookie Bennedict Mathurin appeared in each of his team’s first 67 games this season, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to suit up for all 82. As Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star writes, Mathurin had to be carried to the locker room after spraining his right ankle in the first quarter of Thursday’s win over Houston, and head coach Rick Carlisle said later in the night that he expects the guard to miss some time.

“It’s gonna look different out there without Benn,” Carlisle said. “… I certainly don’t believe he’ll play either of the Detroit games (on Saturday and Monday.) Other guys will have to be ready.”

Mathurin will likely to be evaluated further on Friday to determine whether he’ll have to be ruled out for a set amount of time or whether the injury will be considered day-to-day. Assuming he does miss multiple games, the Pacers figure to lean more heavily on wings like Aaron Nesmith, Chris Duarte, Jordan Nwora, as Dopirak notes.

Here are a few more injury updates from around the NBA:

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, who missed two games due to left foot soreness, returned on Thursday in Sacramento but wasn’t able to finish the game and didn’t come out for the second half, writes Peter Botte of The New York Post. “He just re-aggravated it, but I haven’t talked to the medical people yet,” head coach Tom Thibodeau said. “Just soreness.”
Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga rolled his ankle during pregame warmups on Thursday and was unavailable vs. Memphis, tweets Tim MacMahon of ESPN. X-rays on the injury were negative, but Kuminga was wearing a boot after the game, according to Madeline Kenney of The Bay Area News Group (Twitter link).
After initially being listed as probable with a non-COVID illness, Giannis Antetokounmpo was ruled out for the Bucks‘ game on Thursday due to right hand soreness. Antetokounmpo, who is also dealing with right knee soreness, sprained his right wrist just before the All-Star break, but head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn’t believe the new injury is related to that, per Jim Owczarski of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “I think just generally playing and getting hit and stuff like that,” Budenholzer said. “… I don’t think it’s a specific moment or incident or anything like that. We’ll be monitoring and watching it closely.”

Knicks Notes: Hart, Quickley, Toppin, Fournier, Barrett

March 9th, 2023 at 10:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Josh Hart appears open to a long-term contract with the Knicks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype said in a discussion about the team with Ian Begley of SNY. Hart has been a perfect fit since being acquired from the Trail Blazers at the trade deadline, and he has quickly become a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Hart has a $13MM player option for next season, but he’s expected to turn it down and test the market. Scotto said Hart enjoys being in New York and will likely get a three- or four-year offer from the team.

Begley adds that the Knicks wouldn’t have parted with a future first-round pick along with Cam Reddish unless they were confident that they could keep Hart. He notes that Hart has talked about his connections to team president Leon Rose as well as Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle and is looking for stability after being traded four times in his first six NBA seasons.

There’s more on the Knicks from Scotto and Begley:

Teams may have missed an opportunity by not trading for Immanuel Quickley earlier this season, per Scotto, who says there were rumors that New York would have taken a first-round pick in return. Quickley is now among the favorites for Sixth Man of the Year honors and may be in line for a rookie scale extension this summer. Begley suggests the Knicks’ offer will have to be “something significant” to get Quickley to accept, adding that he’s not likely to give them a “home team discount.”
Randle’s reemergence should make Obi Toppin a strong trade candidate, according to Scotto. The third-year power forward is playing just 14.6 minutes per game and will make $6.8MM next season. Begley states that the Knicks talked to several teams about Toppin before the deadline, including the Pacers, but no one was willing to offer the draft assets they wanted in return for the former lottery pick.
New York will also look for a taker for Evan Fournier, who will have a virtual $18.8MM expiring contract next season because there’s a team option for 2024/25. Fournier was brought up in trade talks with the Raptors involving OG Anunoby, but Toronto was asking for three first-round picks and the Knicks weren’t confident about re-signing Anunoby when he reaches free agency in 2024, Scotto says. The Lakers also had some interest in Fournier earlier in the season, Begley adds.
RJ Barrett hasn’t been in Thibodeau’s closing lineups recently, and Scotto believes the Knicks would be willing to use him as a trade chip if they chase a star player this summer.

The Second-Round Subplot In NBA’s Three-Team Race To The Bottom

March 8th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Following a recent hot streak by the Hornets, three clubs have separated themselves from the pack in the NBA’s race to the bottom. Barring a major surprise, the Pistons (15-51), Rockets (15-50), and Spurs (16-49) will finish as the NBA’s worst three teams.

Even if Charlotte (21-46) doesn’t pick up another win for the rest of the season, San Antonio would have to go 5-12 the rest of the way to tie the Hornets in the standings. That may not sound like a tall order, but it has taken the Spurs 31 games to get their last five wins.

Detroit and Houston would need six more victories to have even a remote shot at catching the Hornets — it has taken the Pistons 28 games to get their last six wins and the Rockets 33 games to do so.

Given that the Hornets have actually been quite competitive lately and no other team has fewer than 27 victories, we should be able to safely pencil in the Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs as the three teams who will have a 14% shot at the No. 1 pick in this May’s draft lottery.

Of course, even though the NBA’s worst three teams will have equal odds to land the No. 1 pick (and a top-four pick), it still pays to finish at the very bottom of the standings — the NBA’s worst team can’t fall out of the top five as a result of the lottery, whereas its third-worst team could theoretically slide all the way to No. 7.

However, there’s another intriguing subplot in this three-team “race.” The Rockets’ final place in the standings will have a major impact on where a pair of Eastern Conference clubs are drafting in the second round this June.

The Pistons and Spurs control their own second-round picks, but due to a series of trades, protections, and swaps, the Rockets’ second-round pick will be sent to either the Pacers or the Celtics. Indiana will get it if it lands at No. 31 or No. 32, while Boston would receive it if it’s No. 33 (or later). Whichever team doesn’t get Houston’s second-round selection would instead end up with the least favorable of the Mavericks’ and Heat’s second-rounders. As of today, that’d be Miami’s pick at No. 50.

[Note: Boston would have the ability to swap that second-round pick for Portland’s second-rounder, but Indiana wouldn’t.]

You’re almost definitely not going to find a franchise player in the early 30s of a draft, but the hit rate on those picks might be a little better than you think. From 2018-21, for instance, players selected in the 30-36 range included Jalen Brunson, Devonte’ Graham, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Porter Jr., Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Desmond Bane, and Herbert Jones.

The Pacers know first-hand the value of having an early second-round pick, having used the No. 31 selection in the 2022 draft to nab Andrew Nembhard. Head coach Rick Carlisle has expressed a belief that Nembhard will end up being a top-12 or top-15 player in the ’22 class.

If a team isn’t zeroed in on a specific player in that section of the draft, an early second-round pick could be used as a valuable trade chip that secures multiple future second-rounders or a veteran rotation player. Again, this is something the Pacers know from experience — it cost them four second-rounders to acquire the No. 31 pick in the 2021 draft. And in 2019, they were able to acquire T.J. Warren and three future second-rounders in exchange for that year’s No. 32 pick and a little cash.

Conversely, a pick in the range of No. 50 (which is where the less favorable of Miami’s and Dallas’ pick figures to end up) is more likely to be used on a two-way player. In terms of trade value, you’d be hard-pressed to get more than cash or perhaps a single far-off second-round pick.

Determining where Houston’s second-round pick will land obviously won’t be nearly as dramatic as learning which team wins the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, but the impact on the Pacers and Celtics won’t be insignificant. Boston will be rooting for the Rockets to finish the season strong, moving that pick to No. 33, while Indiana will be hoping for another extended losing streak in Houston.

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

March 7th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:

Picks that will be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.

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