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Community Shootaround: Kawhi Leonard’s Free Agency

May 26th, 2021 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

When Kawhi Leonard left the Raptors for the Clippers in 2019, he did so in large part because he wanted to return home to Los Angeles.

If Leonard had been prioritizing his ability to keep racking up championships, he may have remained in Toronto, where the Raptors were coming off a 2019 title and were in position to keep it rolling, or joined forces with LeBron James and Anthony Davis on L.A.’s other team, the Lakers.

Even after losing Leonard and Danny Green – who had expressed interest in returning to the Raptors if Kawhi did – Toronto pushed the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2020. James and Davis, of course, led the Lakers to a championship in the Orlando bubble.

Leonard’s decision to prioritize family and comfort rather than trying to maximize his ability to win titles is certainly defensible, especially for a player who had already secured two championships. And it’s not as if he was joining an also-ran by signing with the Clippers — the addition of Kawhi and a trade for Paul George made them legitimate title contenders as well.

However, the Clips were unexpectedly eliminated in the second round of the 2020 postseason by the Nuggets, and now find themselves in a 2-0 hole in the first round in 2021, having lost two games at home to the Mavericks.

This series is far from over, and postgame comments from the likes of Leonard, George, and head coach Tyronn Lue on Tuesday stuck to a common theme: the Clippers aren’t concerned about their two-game deficit and remain confident in their abilities to pull out the series (link via Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN).

But if the Clippers can’t complete the comeback and are knocked out in the first round, it will be a disaster for a franchise that seemingly tanked its way into a matchup with Dallas during the season’s final weekend. Presumably, the goal was to remain out of the Lakers’ side of the Western Conference bracket, but now the Clips are at risk of being eliminated two rounds before they could even face their L.A. rivals — and they find themselves in this situation just two months before Kawhi could turn down his 2021/22 player option and return to the free agent market.

There has long been a belief that Leonard is where he wants to be and that his free agency will be a mere formality. Sure, it makes sense for him to opt out, but only so he can sign maximize his earnings by signing a new deal with the Clippers now that he’ll be eligible for a maximum salary starting at 35% of the cap.

But a second consecutive playoff disappointment would introduce a whole lot more uncertainty into Leonard’s free agency decision. The Clippers mortgaged many of their future assets when they traded for George — would they have the pieces to continue making roster upgrades, and would those moves be enough to convince Kawhi that they’ll be title contenders going forward?

Again, it’s worth reiterating that being in Los Angeles was what Leonard wanted all along, and a move to the Lakers this offseason isn’t realistic. So even if the Mavs knock out the Clippers, we shouldn’t assume that the two-time Finals MVP will jump ship in search of a better on-court situation.

But Leonard will turn 30 next month, so if he wants to sign a long-term deal this summer, he’ll essentially be choosing where he wants to spend the rest of his prime. Will he feel confident making that sort of commitment to the Clippers after two disappointing playoff runs? Would a short-term contract with the Clips be more realistic?

It’s entirely possible that this discussion will seem silly in a few weeks if Leonard and the Clippers roar back against Dallas and make a deep postseason run. For now though, there’s a ton on the line for Steve Ballmer‘s franchise, and it’s worth considering what’s next for L.A. in a worst-case scenario.

What do you think? If the Clippers are eliminated in the first round, should we expect Leonard to look elsewhere in free agency? Or will his desire to be in Los Angeles ultimately win out, even if he signs a shorter-term deal with the Clippers?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2021 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results

May 25th, 2021 at 1:11pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.

The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
- Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
- Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).

Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.

However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.

Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.

The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.

The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference First-Round Series

May 24th, 2021 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

In both 2019 and 2020, the top four seeds in the Western Conference advanced to the second round of the playoffs. However, things are looking a whole lot more wide open early in the first round of the 2021 postseason.

Over the weekend, three of the four lower-seeded teams in the Western Conference playoff matchups won Game 1. The one lower seed that didn’t come away with a win? The No. 7 Lakers, who were favored by oddsmakers over the No. 2 Suns coming into the series.

Despite their seventh seed, the defending-champion Lakers have been widely viewed as one of the favorites to come out of the West now that they’re healthy again, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis back in the lineup. But L.A.’s two leading scorers combined for just 31 points on 11-of-29 shooting in Game 1 against a tough Phoenix team that led almost all night despite a subpar performance from veteran leader Chris Paul.

Later on Sunday, the No. 8 Grizzlies pulled out an upset victory over the No. 1 Jazz, taking advantage of Donovan Mitchell‘s absence and Rudy Gobert‘s foul trouble (he played just 25 minutes before fouling out), as Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks racked up a combined 57 points and helped Memphis hold off a late push from Utah.

On Saturday, the fifth-seeded Mavericks and sixth-seeded Trail Blazers knocked off the Clippers and Nuggets, respectively. A pair of All-NBA guards played key roles in those victories — Luka Doncic scored a game-high 31 points and was a game-best plus-19 in Los Angeles, while Damian Lillard pulled off a similar feat in Denver (34 points, plus-25).

It’s not uncommon for an underdog to win the first game of a series and fail to take advantage of that momentum. In fact, each of the last two NBA champions (the Lakers in 2020 and the Raptors in 2019) lost the first game of their respective first-round series, then won the next four en route to a deep playoff run.

To that point, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag still consider the Jazz and Clippers favorites over the Grizzlies and Mavericks, and give the Lakers near-even odds to win their first-round series over the Suns. Confidence in the Nuggets is dwindling though — the Trail Blazers have been made solid favorites in that series.

We want to know what you think. Will multiple lower-seeded teams win their first-round matchups? Which four Western Conference teams do you expect to see in the second round?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Team To Bring In 7,000 Fans For Postseason Opener

May 22nd, 2021 at 2:34pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Clippers will have approximately 7,000 fans in the stands for their playoff opener, Andrew Greif of the Los Angeles Times tweets. That’s the maximum they can sell, per local regulations. The remainder of the seats will be filled with cardboard cutouts.

Mavericks Notes: Richardson, Redick, Kleber, Fans

May 21st, 2021 at 9:09pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Mavericks wing Josh Richardson admits he’s not thrilled with a reserve role but he’s not going to make any waves, Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News tweets. Richardson is expected to come off the bench during the postseason after starting 56 of the 59 games in which he played this season.

“I was kind of upset at first, but you know, bigger picture, it’s the playoffs, and we don’t have time for anybody to be worried about personal issues or anything like that,” he said.

Richardson holds an $11.6MM option on his contract for next season.

We have more Mavericks news:

J.J. Redick is “unlikely” to play in the first round series against the Clippers, Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News tweets. After being acquired from New Orleans to fortify the backcourt, Redick has appeared in only 13 games due to a nagging heel injury.
The injury news is more promising for power forward Maxi Kleber. He’s got a good chance to play in Game 1, Rick Carlisle told Eddie Sefko of Mavs.com and other media members. Kleber missed the last two regular season games with right Achilles soreness.
The team will bring in crowds in excess of 15,000 when the series shifts to Dallas, Caplan tweets. The franchise will also host vaccination centers outside of American Airlines Arena.

Lue Doesn't Care About Criticism

May 18th, 2021 at 9:53pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Clippers coach Ty Lue rested many of his regulars down the stretch and the team wound up with the No. 4 seed in the West. He has no regrets, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN tweets. “I don’t give a damn what anybody else thinks… we finally got everyone healthy… I don’t care,” he said. “I don’t read Twitter. I don’t have Twitter… I am my own man and I do what I want to do.”

Ibaka Says Back Has Bothered Him All Season

May 17th, 2021 at 10:20am CST by Luke Adams

Having returned on Friday after missing two months due to a back injury, Clippers big man Serge Ibaka told reporters that he has played with back pain since the start of the season, per Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN (Twitter link). It’s a nerve issue, according to Ibaka, who admitted he’s still not back to 100%.

Injury Updates: Ibaka, Beal, Conley, Dozier, Barton

May 14th, 2021 at 5:39pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Serge Ibaka hasn’t played since March 14 due to a back injury but the Clippers’ big man could be in uniform on Friday. He’s been upgraded to questionable, Andrew Greif of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ibaka has averaged 10.9 PPG and 6.7 RPG in his first season with the Clippers and could be a pivotal player in the postseason.

We have more news on the injury front:

Wizards All-Star Bradley Beal won’t play against Cleveland on Friday due to a hamstring injury, the team tweets. The league’s second-leading scorer hasn’t played since last Saturday. Washington can clinch a spot in the play-in tournament with a victory tonight.
Jazz All-Star guard Mike Conley told the media he’ll play the final two games of the regular season, including tonight’s tilt against the Thunder, Eric Walden of the Salt Lake Tribune writes. He’s been out since April 26 due to a right hamstring strain.
The Nuggets’ Will Barton (hamstring) and PJ Dozier (right adductor) are not expected to return before the playoffs, coach Michael Malone told Mike Singer of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Barton, who has been out since April 23, is closer to returning than Dozier.

And-Ones: Barea, Schedule, COVID-19, Future Rankings

May 13th, 2021 at 12:11pm CST by Luke Adams

Due to family-related commitments, veteran guard J.J. Barea had to leave Spanish club Estudiantes before the team’s season formally ends, he announced on Instagram (hat tip to Sportando). Barea signed back in January to spent the season in Spain after being waived by Dallas in December.

Reports earlier this year indicated that Barea’s contract with Estudiantes included an NBA out and that he remained “determined” to make it back to the NBA. Teams technically have until Sunday to sign free agents, and Barea would be postseason-eligible if he returns, but there has been no indication so far that an NBA club intends to sign him.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the league:

The NBA has formally announced the start times for its Saturday and Sunday games. There was reportedly some consideration given to having all of Sunday’s games start around the same time in the afternoon to avoid last-minute tanking, but logistical concerns – including those related to COVID testing – prevented that from happening. Most of Sunday’s games will tip off in the evening.
The NBA and NBPA announced on Wednesday that only one of the 497 players tested for COVID-19 since May 5 returned a new confirmed positive test. That’s an encouraging result with the playoffs around the corner — it’s the lowest weekly total among players since April 7-14.
Speaking of the playoffs and COVID-19, the NBA is still weighing how to handle positive tests in the postseason to avoid the risk of potential spread, according to Ben Rohrbach of Yahoo Sports, who says the league has discussed the possibility of delaying postseason games if necessary.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton (Insider link) have updated their future power rankings, which rank the NBA’s teams based on their projected success for the next three seasons beyond 2020/21. The Nets and Clippers sit atop the list, with the Knicks moving all the way up from No. 27 to No. 7. The Cavaliers continue to hold the bottom spot, while the Timberwolves have slipped to No. 29.

Clippers Hope Serge Ibaka Can Return Before The Season Ends

May 12th, 2021 at 7:30pm CST by Arthur Hill

Serge Ibaka has already been listed as out for Thursday’s game, but the Clippers remain hopeful he can return before the regular season ends Sunday, writes Mirjam Swanson of The Orange County Register. Ibaka, who has missed the past 29 games with lower back tightness, is traveling with the team on its current road trip.