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Projected NBA Taxpayers For 2021/22

March 4th, 2022 at 9:27am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021/22 NBA season will be a record-setting one for luxury tax payments.

According to data from Albert Nahmad of HeatHoops.com and Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype, the league’s previous single-year record for total luxury tax payments was $173.3MM, back in 2002/03.

This season, the Warriors‘ tax penalties alone will nearly match that league-wide record. And they’ll be joined by six other projected taxpayers whose combined end-of-season bills would eclipse the previous record even without Golden State’s help.

In the space below, we’ve done our best to ballpark the current tax bill for each of this season’s seven projected taxpayers. These numbers may end up looking slightly different after the season, since it can be tricky to pin down the precise amount of a tax bill during the season.

Earned and unearned incentives in certain players’ contracts can affect eventual tax payments, and not all of the criteria for those incentives are public. Even the incentives that are known may not have been decided yet — for instance, Nets guard Kyrie Irving will earn a $137,500 bonus if he makes at least 88.5% of his free throws this season. He’s currently at 91.9%, but has only had 62 attempts, so it remains possible his free throw rate will dip below 88.5%, costing him that bonus and reducing Brooklyn’s tax bill.

Additionally, even after the trade deadline, a team’s tax bill remains fluid due to possible forthcoming roster moves, suspensions, and a handful of other factors. The Sixers‘ projected tax bill just increased last night when they officially signed DeAndre Jordan to a rest-of-season contract.

With all that in mind, here are the current projected penalties for this season’s probable taxpayers, based on our math, along with salary data from Spotrac and Basketball Insiders:

Golden State Warriors: $170.3MM
Brooklyn Nets: $97.0MM
Los Angeles Clippers: $82.5MM
Milwaukee Bucks: $56.5MM
Los Angeles Lakers: $45.0MM
Utah Jazz: $18.8MM
Philadelphia 76ers: $13.9MM

In total, these seven teams project to owe a staggering $484MM in luxury tax payments.

Half of that total will be dispersed to the league’s non-taxpayers, which means that 23 teams should be in line to split a pot of about $242MM. That would work out to a payment of approximately $10.5MM for each of those 23 non-taxpayers.

These numbers make it more obvious why a team like the Celtics made a concerted effort to get out of luxury tax territory at the trade deadline. A tax bill of $2MM or so wouldn’t break the bank for Boston’s ownership group, but the C’s generated more than just $2MM in savings by ducking below the tax line — they’re now in line to be one of those 23 teams that receives a $10MM+ windfall.

It’s worth noting too that the Warriors are the only one of these seven projected taxpayers who will be subjected to “repeater” penalties this season, so it’s not as if those more punitive repeater penalties are fueling this year’s record-setting totals. Even without the repeater penalties, the Dubs would still owe approximately $131.1MM in taxes.

Pacific Notes: Payne, Booker, Covington, Augustin

March 2nd, 2022 at 11:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

With Chris Paul injured and Devin Booker in health and safety protocols, the Suns were happy to welcome Cameron Payne back tonight, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. Payne, who injured his right wrist on January 22, was in the starting lineup as Phoenix hosted the Trail Blazers.

“Just his energy, his energy is contagious,” said Torrey Craig, who was still with the Pacers when Payne got hurt. “He likes to get the crowd into the game. He gets his teammates going. He plays with this level of confidence that teams need.”

After Paul hurt his thumb, coach Monty Williams replaced him in the starting lineup with Cameron Johnson and let Booker run the point. Williams is glad to have a true point guard back with the starters and to see Johnson return to providing instant offense with the second unit.

“It allows for the bench to have a bit more rhythm,” Williams said. “It puts Cam Johnson back into his role on the bench and now he could be the anchor out there as far as scoring. A guy who has been in our rotation and he knows what we’re doing.”

There’s more from the Pacific Division:

The COVID-19 test that Booker took today was inconclusive, tweets John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7. Booker will be permitted to play if he can produce negative tests two days in a row.
After Tuesday’s game, Clippers forward Robert Covington talked extensively about mental health issues and revealed that he almost quit playing basketball in 2019, according to Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times. It happened while he was trying to recover from a knee injury, and Covington claims the Sixers traded him to Minnesota after assuring him that he wouldn’t be moved. Covington now uses his experiences to try to help other players who may be going through difficult times. “I take positives, I take negatives, and I just reevaluate,” he said. “I don’t let them drain my energy. I just assess it in a different manner, to where it helps me. And that’s what I’ll allow myself to get to, because before, I couldn’t do that.”
D.J. Augustin didn’t have much time to prepare after finding out Monday that the Lakers wanted to sign him, tweets Dave McMenamin of ESPN. Augustin said he “threw anything in a bag” and caught a flight to L.A. the next day.

Pacific Notes: George, Mann, Paul, Cook

February 26th, 2022 at 11:02pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Clippers got encouraging news from Friday’s MRI on Paul George, but it’s still going to be a while before the forward can resume playing, according to Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN. While the torn ligament in George’s right elbow has shown improvement, it’s too early to tell if he might be able to return this season.

“Just that he feels better, he’s making progress,” coach Tyronn Lue responded when asked for an update on George’s condition. “But he’s gonna need more time.”

George originally sprained the elbow in a December 6 game, then sat out two weeks for rest and rehab. He played two games after returning, but started to feel pain again. The team announced the torn UCL on December 25.

“Every competitor wants to play,” Lue said. “And so I’m bummed out, too. [But] hope is stronger than fear.”

There’s more from the Pacific Division:

Terance Mann‘s performance since the trade deadline may convince the Clippers that they don’t need to look for a ball-handler on the buyout market, per Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times. Since L.A. traded Eric Bledsoe to Portland, Mann has led the team in plus-minus rating at plus-10.8. Now that Goran Dragic is in Brooklyn, Greif questions whether there are any point guards available who could make a difference for the Clippers.
Playing their second game since Chris Paul was sidelined with a fractured right thumb, the Suns were blown out at home by the Pelicans Friday night, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. Paul remained active on the bench, coaching and encouraging his teammates, but Phoenix will have to adjust to his absence on the court in order to keep the top spot in the West. “We just have to find ways,” Devin Booker said. “I think every game is going to be a new learning experience for us. Figuring things out.”
Former NBA guard Quinn Cook has joined the Kings‘ G League affiliate in Stockton, the team announced in a press release. Cook appeared in 188 games in five seasons with the Mavericks, Pelicans, Warriors, Lakers and Cavaliers, averaging 6.1 PPG and shooting 40.8% from three-point range.

Hartenstein Making Case For Big Raise

February 25th, 2022 at 9:13pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Isaiah Hartenstein has been stellar in a backup role with the Clippers and he could cash in after the season, according to ESPN’s Zach Lowe. Hartenstein is shooting 62% from the field and has emerged as one of the best passing bigs in the league. Hartenstein will be an unrestricted free agent this summer after playing on a minimum contract and he could be in a line for a non-trivial portion of some team’s mid-level exception, Lowe believes.
The Clippers are continuing to look around for upgrades, particularly at the point, but there may not be anyone made available that they’ll sign, according to Andrew Greif of the Los Angeles Times. They are happy with the recent play of Terance Mann and would have to waive a player to add a free agent.

George's Much-Anticipated MRI Will Occur Friday

February 24th, 2022 at 1:50pm CST by Rory Maher

Clippers star Paul George, who’s currently sidelined with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, was scheduled to have an MRI on Thursday but it has been pushed back to Friday, according to Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).

Nets Notes: Irving, Dragic, Nash, Harris

February 23rd, 2022 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nets and point guard Kyrie Irving got some promising news today, as New York City mayor Eric Adams told reporters that he “can’t wait” to phase out the city’s COVID-19 vaccine requirements for indoor spaces.

Irving has been unable to play home games all season long due to the local regulations that apply to unvaccinated athletes, but the mayor’s comments today suggest those regulations could be adjusted in the coming weeks.

“I’m not going to get ahead of the science,” Adams said (video link via The Glue Guys). “… They gave us benchmarks. We’re going to follow those benchmarks. But I look forward to the next few weeks going through a real transformation. … We’re moving in the right direction. We’re going to do it in a safe way.”

For now, New York City’s vaccine mandate remains unchanged, so Irving will be ineligible to suit up when the Nets host Boston on Thursday night. But if the city plans to phase out the mandate within the next several weeks, that bodes well for Kyrie’s chances of suiting up in the postseason, which begins in mid-April.

Here’s more on the Nets:

While Goran Dragic is looking forward to playing alongside stars like Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons, and Irving, his decision to sign with the Nets was ultimately influenced by his relationship with head coach Steve Nash, who assured Dragic he’d be an important part of the team, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. “If it wasn’t for Nash, Dragic would be either with the Bucks or Clippers,” a source told Scotto.
A source tells Scotto that the Nets and Joe Harris will likely make a decision on whether or not the forward needs a second ankle surgery after seeing how things go this week with his recovery process.
His roster doesn’t look like he expected it to when the season began, but general manager Sean Marks hasn’t adjusted his expectations for the Nets, as Brian Lewis of The New York Post writes. “Championship. That’s it,” Marks said to a group of season-ticket holders. “I’d be doing 17 players and another 60 staff members over there a massive disservice if I said anything other than that, because that’s what we’re all here for.”

Quinn Cook, Jahm’ius Ramsey, Others Sign G League Contracts

February 22nd, 2022 at 11:26am CST by Luke Adams

A series of NBA free agents have signed contracts with the G League, according to the NBAGL transactions log. Veteran guard Quinn Cook and former Kings Jahmi’us Ramsey and Robert Woodard II – both of whom were waived earlier this month – are among the players entering the G League.

Cook, who has 188 career NBA appearances under his belt, began the 2021/22 season playing overseas with Lokomotiv Kuban, but left the Russian team in December in what was deemed a mutual decision. Ramsey and Woodard were second-round picks in the 2020 draft, but never developed into regular rotation players in Sacramento, appearing in just 32 and 25 total games, respectively.

Woodard was initially claimed by the Iowa Wolves and has since been traded to the Oklahoma City Blue (the Thunder‘s NBAGL affiliate). Cook and Ramsey signed their contracts more recently and have yet to land with new teams.

Malik Fitts, Ky Bowman, Karim Mane, and Daulton Hommes are among the other players with NBA experience who have signed G League contracts within the last week. Although Hommes technically has yet to appear in an NBA regular season game, he spent the first two months of this season on a two-way deal with New Orleans, earning a year of NBA service.

Fitts’ returning rights belong to the Agua Caliente Clippers of Ontario, while Bowman has been traded to the Austin Spurs. Mane has landed with the Greensboro Swarm, the Hornets‘ G League team, while Hommes rejoined the Birmingham Squadron, the Pelicans‘ affiliate.

Finally, former Warriors and Magic guard Mychal Mulder has also signed a G League contract, a source tells our JD Shaw (Twitter link). Mulder, who was waived by Orlando last month, appeared in 15 games this season and has played in 82 total NBA contests since 2020.

None of these players’ rights are held by an NBA team, so they remain free to sign a standard contract or a two-way deal with any of the league’s 30 clubs.

Stein’s Latest: Rivers, Dragic, Harris, R. Lopez, Dinwiddie, Bertans

February 20th, 2022 at 11:58am CST by Arthur Hill

The Sixers have confidence in coach Doc Rivers to lead the team to a title now that James Harden has been paired up with Joel Embiid, a source tells Marc Stein (Substack link). Philadelphia hasn’t won an NBA championship in 39 years and Rivers has a recent history of playoff disappointments, but team officials believe he can oversee the new partnership.

Shortly after the trade with the Nets was completed, Stein heard rumors that the Sixers might be considering Mike D’Antoni, who coached Harden for four years in Houston. D’Antoni is currently serving as a coaching advisor to the Pelicans after spending last season with Harden as an assistant in Brooklyn.

However, Stein’s source insists that Rivers’ job is safe, saying he gained admiration from ownership and the front office with the way he guided the team through the distractions caused by Ben Simmons‘ absence.

Stein offers more inside information from around the league:

Goran Dragic met with the Nets on Friday as he considers his next team following a buyout with the Spurs. Coach Steve Nash served as a mentor when Dragic entered the NBA with the Suns and has been the team’s lead recruiter for the free agent guard. Along with Brooklyn, Stein cites the Bucks, Bulls, Warriors and Clippers as the top suitors for Dragic. He’s been “really open-minded” to the offers from each team, a source tells Stein.
Magic veterans Gary Harris and Robin Lopez haven’t pushed for buyouts so far, according to Stein’s sources, who add that Harris may want to stay in Orlando in hopes of re-signing during the offseason. There was talk that Lopez might join his brother in Milwaukee after a buyout, Stein states, but the recent additions of Greg Monroe and Serge Ibaka may have quelled the Bucks‘ interest (though Monroe’s most recent 10-day contract has expired). Golden State may need another center for the playoffs, and Stein sees Lopez as a potential “home run” for the Warriors if he becomes available.
Small guarantees for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans in the final year of their contracts motivated the Mavericks to acquire them in last week’s trade for Kristaps Porzingis. Dinwiddie has just a $10MM guarantee on his $18.9MM salary for 2023/24, while Bertans carries a $5MM guarantee on his $16MM salary for 2024/25. Dallas is hoping those limited guarantees will make both contracts easier to trade.

Bucks “Aggressive” In Pursuit Of Goran Dragic

February 18th, 2022 at 8:07pm CST by Rory Maher

Appearing on NBA Today (video link), ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the Bucks have been “aggressive” in their pursuit of Goran Dragic, who reached a buyout agreement with the Spurs on Tuesday.

Dragic has been spending the week speaking to interested teams, and Wojnarowski calls the Bucks the “foremost” team on Dragic’s list. The defending champions find themselves with a hole in the backcourt after trading Donte DiVincenzo to the Kings and losing Pat Connaughton for approximately four weeks after surgery to repair his broken right ring finger.

Milwaukee’s brass, including GM Jon Horst and head coach Mike Budenholzer, has been pitching Dragic on the opportunity to play meaningful minutes and a “pretty significant role,” says Wojnarowski.

However, he notes that the Bulls, Clippers, Nets, and Lakers remain interested in the former All-Star guard. Woj thinks Dragic is getting closer to making a decision on his next team.

Veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein tweets that the Warriors are also in the mix for Dragic, but notably did not include the Lakers on his list of teams vying for Dragic’s services.

Poll: Which Team Will Win Western Conference?

February 18th, 2022 at 7:48am CST by Luke Adams

On Thursday, we asked you which Eastern Conference team will make the NBA Finals this season. At the moment, no team in that poll has more than 24% of the vote, and five clubs have at least an 11% vote share.

While the East has been the conference of parity this season, the Western Conference has been something quite different. Two teams, the Suns (48-10) and Warriors (42-17), have controlled the top of the standings for essentially the entire season — no other club has cracked the top two since November 10.

Teams that have a ton of regular season success but haven’t yet proven themselves in the playoffs are often regarded with skepticism, not considered true contenders until they make a deep postseason run. But Golden State’s current core, led by Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green – has a long history of playoff success. And while Phoenix certainly can’t match the Warriors’ recent track record, the Suns showed last spring that they were no fluke, making it all the way to the NBA Finals and coming within two wins of a title.

In other words, these two teams are legit, and look like the odds-on favorites to meet in the Western Conference Finals. But that’s obviously not a foregone conclusion yet, with a handful of intriguing clubs filling out the playoff picture.

The Grizzlies, for one, are putting pressure on Golden State for the No. 2 seed in the conference — their 41-19 record puts them just a game-and-a-half back of the Dubs. Memphis is one of those teams we alluded to above, whose lack of recent playoff success means they’ll have plenty of skeptics to win over. But Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, and company have shown they’re not willing to back down from anybody and have made the Grizzlies one of the NBA’s most exciting teams.

The Jazz (36-22) have championships aspirations and look great when they’re firing on all cylinders, but they’ve been up and down this season and have been exposed at times by smaller lineups. The Mavericks (35-24) are hoping that this year’s supporting cast is a better fit for Luka Doncic, but they’ll still only go as far as their All-NBA guard takes them.

The Nuggets (33-25) are one of the Western Conference’s most interesting contenders. Nikola Jokic has kept them firmly in the playoff mix with another MVP-caliber performance, and he could get some help before the end of the season — if Jamal Murray (ACL) and Michael Porter Jr. (back) return for the playoffs and look anything like their 2020/21 selves, Denver will be an extremely tough out.

Like Denver, the Clippers (30-31) and Lakers (27-31) could be dangerous if they’re at full strength, but Kawhi Leonard seems like a long shot to make it back this spring for the Clips, and the Lakers haven’t been able to put it all together even when their stars are healthy.

The Timberwolves (31-28) currently hold the top play-in spot ahead of the two Los Angeles teams and are looking to clinch a playoff spot for just the second time since 2004. It’s too early to rule anything out, but a deep postseason run seems unlikely for a Minnesota team that would’ve been happy entering the season just to earn a playoff berth.

If the nine teams we’ve already mentioned finish in the top 10, that leaves one play-in spot for a group that includes the revamped Pelicans (23-36) and Kings (22-38), the surprisingly-surging Trail Blazers (25-34), and Gregg Popovich‘s young Spurs (23-36). Again, never say never, but it’s a pretty safe bet that none of these teams will be representing the West in the Finals this June.

What do you think? Which Western Conference team do you expect to make it to the NBA Finals? How many legitimate contenders do you think there are in the West?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!