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Community Shootaround: NBA’s Race To The Bottom

February 26th, 2023 at 11:57am CST by Luke Adams

Coming into the 2022/23 season, there was some concern that the presence of Scoot Henderson and (especially) Victor Wembanyama at the top of the 2023 draft class could result in some pretty aggressive tanking from the bottom third of the NBA’s teams.

It hasn’t played out that way so far though, due to a competitive race for the top 10 spots in each conference. In the West, the top 13 teams all either hold a playoff or play-in spot or are no more than 1.5 games back of the No. 10 seed. It’s not quite as congested in the East, but the conference’s 13th team is only four games out of a play-in spot.

As a result, there have been only four teams in full-on “race for Wembanyama” mode, and one of those four clubs hasn’t exactly been in tanking mode as of late, winning its last four games. Here’s what the bottom of the NBA’s standings look like as of Sunday morning:

Houston Rockets (13-46)
San Antonio Spurs (14-47)
Detroit Pistons (15-46)
Charlotte Hornets (19-43)
Orlando Magic (25-36)
Indiana Pacers (27-35)
Chicago Bulls (27-33)
Los Angeles Lakers (28-32)
(tie) Portland Trail Blazers / Oklahoma City Thunder / Washington Wizards (28-31)

Given that the odds for the No. 1 pick are the same for each of the NBA’s three worst teams, it seemed as if we’d get a four-team race for those three spots at the bottom of the standings. But the Hornets have won their last four games and appear far better positioned to continue getting victories than the Rockets (losers of eight in a row and 23 of their last 26), the Spurs (losers of 15 in a row and 21 of 22), and the Pistons (losers of four in a row and seven of their last eight).

Of course, if the Hornets were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d still end up with just 29 wins, so they may end up with the NBA’s fourth-worst record even if they finish strong. After all, the Bulls, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Wizards all seem motivated to make the play-in.

The Magic, Pacers, and Thunder are perhaps candidates for stealth end-of-season tanks in order to secure top-five lottery odds, since none of those clubs expected to be a playoff team this season. But they’ve been competitive all season and would probably have to start ruling out some of their top players due to injuries if they want to start winning less often (similar to what Portland did last year).

As for the race to the bottom among the NBA’s three worst teams, it’s hard to bet against the Rockets, who also finished with the league’s worst record in 2021 and 2022. But the Spurs are giving them a run for their money with their recent stretch of futility, posting an abysmal -15.8 net rating during their 15-game current losing streak. And the Pistons seem happy to experiment with new lineups while incorporating recently added players.

We want to know what you think. How will the race for lottery positioning play out the rest of the way? Which team will finish as the NBA’s worst? Has the Hornets’ recent success locked them into the fourth spot in the lottery standings? Are there any teams with 25 or more wins that you expect to go into full-on tank mode in the coming days or weeks?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

February 26th, 2023 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10 or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

P.J. Washington, Hornets (60 starts)
Tre Jones, Spurs (52 starts)
Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls (49 starts)

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

Coby White, Bulls (top-14 pick)
Jaxson Hayes, Pelicans (top-14 pick)
Rui Hachimura, Lakers (top-14 pick)
Cameron Johnson, Nets (top-14 pick)
Romeo Langford, Spurs (top-14 pick)
Matisse Thybulle, Trail Blazers (No. 20 pick)
Grant Williams, Celtics (No. 22 pick)
Herbert Jones, Pelicans (second-round pick) *
Kenyon Martin Jr., Rockets (second-round pick) *
Naji Marshall, Pelicans (UDFA) *

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

Lakers Notes: 2023 FAs, Russell, Hachimura, Bamba

February 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm CST by Luke Adams

The majority of the players the Lakers acquired prior to this month’s trade deadline aren’t owed guaranteed money beyond this season, so the team still has the flexibility to generate a significant amount of cap room this summer, if necessary. However, the expectation from rival executives is that the Lakers will operate over the cap and bring back most – or all – of the players they traded for, writes Sean Deveney of Heavy.com.

“They would never have given up that (2027 first-round) pick unless they planned to make some long-term investments,” one general manager told Deveney. “They were willing to trade it but they needed some guys just heading into their primes to convince them to give it up.

“Now they’ve got (D’Angelo) Russell, they’ve got (Jarred) Vanderbilt, they’ve got Malik Beasley, plus (Rui) Hachimura, Austin Reaves. We’ll see what they do with Mo Bamba, too. That’s a base of young players that they did not have before, you know, guys who are (in their) mid-20s. They’re going to keep those guys in place. They’re all-in on paying those guys.”

Here’s more on the Lakers’ present and future:

The GM who spoke to Deveney thinks the floor for Russell on his next contract will be $70MM over three years. Another executive believes that the 27-year-old guard, who will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, will get something in the range of Anfernee Simons‘ four-year, $100MM deal.
Russell, who sprained his right ankle on Thursday, is listed as doubtful to play on Sunday in Dallas, but may not have a lengthy absence — he’s considered day-to-day, per head coach Darvin Ham (Twitter links via Mike Bresnahan of Spectrum SportsNet and ESPN’s Dave McMenamin).
Sources tell Deveney that the Lakers may look to re-sign Hachimura on a contract similar to the one Kyle Kuzma got from the team in 2020 ($39MM over three years). “He wanted something around $20 million (per year) from the Wizards and they were never going that high,” a Western Conference executive said of Hachimura. “He has to be a little humbled by this season because he just didn’t make that jump he expected to make—he can’t shoot and if you can’t shoot as a wing in the NBA, you’re in trouble. So, I’d expect him to get three years, with an option. Something like $13-14 million, that way he is still a good trade asset going forward or he is going to be a guy who becomes a huge bargain.”
That same Western exec seems high on Bamba, suggesting that the big man’s $10.3MM team option for next season is a relative bargain and that there’s “still a lot of trade value on him.” It’s an interesting assessment, given that Bamba’s playing time dipped in Orlando this season after he signed that contract and the exec acknowledges the Lakers “got him for almost nothing” from the Magic.

D’Angelo Russell “Not Worried” About Ankle Injury

February 24th, 2023 at 10:10am CST by Luke Adams

In his fourth game back with the Lakers on Thursday, point guard D’Angelo Russell exited in the first quarter due to a right ankle sprain and didn’t return.

As Dave McMenamin of ESPN writes, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham told reporters after the game that X-rays on Russell’s ankle came back negative. However, the veteran guard will undergo further evaluation on Friday to assess the severity of the injury and determine whether he’ll have to miss time.

For his part, Russell didn’t sound concerned about a lengthy absence. According to McMenamin, the 27-year-old said that he’s “not worried” about the ankle and didn’t rule out the possibility of returning to action for the Lakers’ next game on Sunday in Dallas.

The injury occurred after a Donte DiVincenzo layup with 4:31 left in the first quarter. Russell grabbed the ball and went to quickly inbound it, but accidentally stepped on DiVincenzo’s foot as the Warriors wing tried to get back on defense (video link). Russell stayed in the game until the next whistle and was subbed out with 3:12 remaining in the quarter.

“Wrong place, wrong time definitely,” Russell said of the injury. “Pretty unlucky for me.”

Although the Lakers are waiting for more clarity on Russell’s prognosis, they managed to defeat the Warriors without their starting point guard available for the last three quarters on Thursday –they’re now within 1.5 games of Golden State for the No. 10 seed in the West. Los Angeles has won three of four games since the trade deadline and looks like a more serious threat to make the playoffs with its revamped lineup.

“The pieces we added for defense, for offense looks pretty good,” Anthony Davis said after Thursday’s win. “I think we’re playing well. We’re clicking. … Hopefully D-Lo’s injury isn’t severe where he misses time. I think we got a complete team where we’re able to make a little run.”

Lakers Don't Want To Settle For Play-In Tournament

February 23rd, 2023 at 9:58am CST by Arthur Hill

Westbrook was stuck in a difficult situation with the Lakers, where he was a poor fit and an easy target for the team’s disappointing performance. A trade to Utah and a buyout with the Jazz gave him a chance to reset his career, and he said at Wednesday’s introductory press conference that he’s happy to be able to stay in L.A. and help the Clippers contend for a title.

The Lakers also remade their roster this month in hopes of making a push for the playoffs. Coach Darvin Ham tells Dave McMenamin of ESPN that three of the team’s newcomers — D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt — will be part of the starting lineup going forward. L.A.’s next seven games are against teams that it’s trailing in the Western Conference playoff race, and Ham knows they’re all important. “If we fall into a play-in situation, so be it,” he said. “But our No. 1 goal is to go secure a (playoff) spot, not just throw games off here or there (and) just wish for a play-in. We want to go secure a spot.”

Southeast Notes: Hawks’ Coaching Search, Schofield, Gill

February 22nd, 2023 at 10:19am CST by Luke Adams

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Tuesday that Quin Snyder, Kenny Atkinson, and Charles Lee will be among the Hawks‘ head coaching candidates as the team searches for a permanent replacement for Nate McMillan, who was let go during the All-Star break.

Shams Charania of The Athletic confirms those names and adds a few more to the Hawks’ list of possible targets, reporting (via Twitter) that Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez, Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson, and South Bay Lakers coach Miles Simon are expected to receive consideration from Atlanta.

Fernandez has generated some head coaching buzz in the past, but as far as I can tell, this is the first time either Johnson or Simon has been connected to a head coaching opening at the NBA level.

Here’s more from around the Southeast:

McMillan took the fall for the Hawks‘ “organizational-wide failure” this season, according to Jeff Schultz of The Athletic, who argues that – even if McMillan’s dismissal was justified – the team’s problems extend beyond the job the head coach did. Schultz cites front office dysfunction as one key issue for the Hawks in recent months.
Admiral Schofield‘s new contract with the Magic is a two-year, minimum-salary deal, Hoops Rumors has learned. Schofield will earn $506,508 for the rest of this season and Orlando will hold a $1,997,238 team option on the forward for 2023/24.
Wizards forward Anthony Gill hasn’t played a major role in D.C. this season, averaging a modest 10.0 minutes per game in 41 appearances. However, Gill’s enthusiasm and positivity have made him an important culture-setter for the club, as Ava Wallace outlines in an interesting story for The Washington Post. Gill signed a guaranteed two-year, minimum-salary deal with the Wizards last summer, so he remains under contract for $2MM next season.

All-Star Notes: Malone, Tatum, New Draft Format, Irving

February 20th, 2023 at 8:56am CST by Arthur Hill

There were several memorable moments from All-Star Weekend, but not many occurred during Sunday night’s game. Defense has rarely been a priority in the All-Star Game, but there was minimal effort from most players on that end of the court as Team Giannis posted a 184-175 win over Team LeBron.

Among the critics was the Nuggets’ Michael Malone, who guided Team LeBron in his second All-Star coaching appearance (video link from Vic Lombardi of Altitude TV).

“It’s an honor to be here; it’s an honor to be part of a great weekend, great players, but that was the worst basketball game ever played,” Malone said at the postgame press conference. “… I give Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving, those guys were, like, competing. Joel was imploring some of the guys to play harder, to try to get some defense in. No one got hurt, they put on a show for the fans, but that is a tough game to sit through, I’m not gonna lie.”

Celtics star Jaylen Brown was also critical of the contest, calling it a glorified “layup line” and saying, “that’s not basketball,” tweets Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times.

There’s more from All-Star Weekend:

Jayson Tatum realized midway through the fourth quarter Sunday night that he had a chance to break the All-Star Game scoring record, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPN. Tatum, who finished with 55 points to top Anthony Davis‘ old mark of 52, credits Damian Lillard for pointing out that the record was within reach. Tatum added that he has been hoping to win All-Star MVP honors since the trophy was named in honor of Kobe Bryant. “It’s extremely special to me,” Tatum said. “My first All-Star Game was in Chicago in 2020 when they renamed the MVP after him, and I remember telling myself that someday I got to get one of those.”
The new format of having captains select their teams shortly before game time mostly went smoothly, although Giannis Antetokounmpo mistakenly picked starter Ja Morant while drafting the reserves. Also, Nikola Jokic walked over to Team LeBron before the final pick among starters was made, but he didn’t realize that Lauri Markkanen still hadn’t been selected, tweets Tim Bontemps of ESPN.
Among the most notable picks in the draft was LeBron James choosing Irving, his former teammate in Cleveland. The Lakers were rumored to be among the top contenders to land Irving after he made his trade request to the Nets. “It’s always good to see him. I’m very proud of him,” James told reporters (video link from Kyle Goon of The Orange County Register). “Very proud of the man that he has become in his life right now.”

LeBron Vows To Stay On Court

February 19th, 2023 at 8:40pm CST by Dana Gauruder

LeBron James has battled knee soreness recently but he vows to stay on the court for the remainder of the season, Joe Vardon of The Athletic writes. James doesn’t want the Lakers to miss the playoffs for a second consecutive year.

“These are 23 of the most important games of my career,” James said on Sunday. “I’m going to figure out ways to make sure I’m available and on the floor for every single one of these 23 (Lakers) games.”

The Lakers, who have the Western Conference’s 13th-best record, are two games behind the Thunder for the final play-in spot.

“I want to make a push to make the playoffs,” the Lakers superstar said. “I see myself not being kept out of the postseason two years straight. That’s not part of my DNA. We’re sitting here talking about the (scoring) record, things of that nature, but I’m more passionate about us trying to make the postseason and give us another chance to hold the Larry O’Brien Trophy. That’s what I am cut from.”

Cavs, Kevin Love Complete Buyout; Heat In Lead To Sign Him

February 18th, 2023 at 3:46pm CST by Luke Adams

3:46pm: The buyout is now official and Love has been waived, the Cavs announced in a press release.

“Kevin Love had an outstanding run with the Cavaliers, including memorable on-court moments, four NBA Finals appearances and an NBA Championship in 2016,” said president of basketball operations Koby Altman. “Kevin represented the organization and the city of Cleveland with the utmost charm and professionalism during his nine seasons in Northeast Ohio.

“He also embodied everything a franchise would want in a player, and the admiration and gratitude we have for him will ultimately land his jersey in the rafters of Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. We thank Kevin for his impact and wish him nothing but the best, knowing that he has solidified his place in the hearts of Cavaliers fans and this organization forever.”

11:07am: The Cavaliers and Love have completed a buyout, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). Wojnarowski confirms that Miami is the frontrunner to sign Love, but says he intends to talk to to the Sixers before finalizing a decision.

9:29am: The Heat have emerged as the frontrunners to sign Kevin Love once he finalizes a buyout agreement with the Cavaliers, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

As Charania explains, other teams with interest in signing Love believe he favors Miami due to the Heat’s ability to offer a defined role, as well as their position in the standings.

The Heat are currently the seventh seed in the East, but have a three-game cushion on the eight-place Hawks and are within striking distance of the Knicks and Nets, the two teams directly ahead of them for the East’s final two guaranteed playoff berths.

Miami has been on the lookout all season long for power forward help following P.J. Tucker‘s exit in free agency last summer. Caleb Martin has served as a de facto starter at that spot for much of the season, but the 6’5″ wing lacks the size to match up with stronger, more physical fours.

Love, who has been out of the Cavs’ rotation and is said to be nearing a buyout, can’t replicate what Tucker did for the Heat last season, since he’s not as stout or as versatile defensively. But the 34-year-old can bring some size, scoring, and rebounding to a Miami team that ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive rating (111.1) and 27th in rebounds per game (41.4).

Love’s averages of 8.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG on .389/.354/.889 shooting in 41 games (20.0 MPG) for the Cavs this season are somewhat underwhelming, but he put up 13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and a .430/.392/.838 shooting line in a similar role (22.5 MPG) across 74 appearances for Cleveland last season.

The Heat have an opening on their 15-man roster, so no corresponding move would be necessary to add Love, though there are still a few steps to go before the move can become official. The Cavs will need to formally buy out and waive Love, then he’ll spend two days on waivers. Once he become a free agent, Miami would still need to hold off a last-minute push from rival suitors to make things official with the five-time All-Star.

The Suns are among the teams believed to have interest in Love, while the Lakers were also reportedly “kicking the tires,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said during a TV appearance (YouTube video link).

And-Ones: Mbah A Moute, Draft, Second-Round Picks, Cap Room

February 18th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Former NBA forward Luc Mbah a Moute, a 12-year veteran who last played in the league in 2020, has joined CAA as an agent, reports Ramona Shelburne of ESPN. According to Shelburne, Mbah a Moute’s work as a player rep will focus on Africa.

Mbah a Moute has been hosting basketball camps in his home country of Cameroon since his NBA playing days ended, Shelburne writes. Through those camps and his new role with CAA, the 36-year-old is hoping to unearth more African talent that might otherwise have slipped through the cracks.

“I’m not saying we’ll find another Joel (Embiid) or Pascal (Siakam),” he said. “But from what I’m seeing, Africa’s not benefiting from its athletes the way it should. There’s a lot more players who need to get an opportunity, whether it’s becoming a pro or a coach or even a GM, like Masai Ujiri.”

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic explores how the 2023 NBA draft will be impacted by the deals made at last week’s trade deadline. Among his other observations, Vecenie points out that the swap rights the Pelicans have with the Lakers don’t appear nearly as valuable as they did earlier in the season. The two teams were separated by 8.5 games near the end of December, but there are only three games between them now, and L.A. has upgraded its roster while New Orleans continues to play without star forward Zion Williamson.
After second-round picks changed hands in trades at an unprecedented rate this season, Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports considers what we learned about those picks and their value — and whether we should expect teams to continue to play “hot potato” with second-rounders going forward.
Which teams project to have cap room this summer and which ones are already into tax territory? Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype takes a look at all 30 NBA clubs and breaks down their salary commitments for 2023/24.