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Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Race

August 5th, 2020 at 9:59am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s restart got underway last Thursday, the Grizzlies were in the driver’s seat for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, with at least a 3.5-game cushion on each of their five potential challengers. However, a slow start from the Grizzlies – who have lost three consecutive games to teams chasing them – has created a fascinating, wide-open race for that final playoff spot in the West.

After an 0-3 start, Memphis’ lead for that No. 8 spot is down to 1.5 games, and all five of their challengers are now within 3.5 games. To make matters worse, the Grizzlies will be without key big man Jaren Jackson Jr. for the rest of the season due to a meniscus tear, and the team’s schedule isn’t getting any easier. Contests against Utah, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Boston, and Milwaukee are on tap for the Grizzlies, who will have to hope that some of those Eastern teams are locked into their seeds by the last week of the season and decide to rest some starters.

The Trail Blazers, who currently hold the No. 9 spot, have looked like the biggest threat to Memphis so far in Orlando. With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins healthy again, Portland is nearly at full strength and has recorded impressive wins over the Grizzlies and Rockets, sandwiching a tough loss to Boston. The Blazers are only a year removed from appearing in the Western Conference Finals. After struggling for much of the season, they’ve recently played more like the 2018/19 squad than the team that went 29-37 before the hiatus.

The Spurs and Suns have also looked rejuvenated since the season resumed. They own a combined 5-1 record so far, with the only blemish coming on Monday, when San Antonio lost a 132-130 heart-breaker to Philadelphia. The Spurs were four games out of the playoffs when the restart began, and the Suns were six games back, but they’re now within just two games and three games, respectively.

The Pelicans got off to a slow start last week, but their schedule is so forgiving that they’re still in a pretty good position to push for the No. 8 or 9 seed. After beating the Grizzlies on Monday, the Pelicans will play their final five seeding games against teams with losing records — Washington, San Antonio, Orlando, and Sacramento (twice). With Zion Williamson rounding into form, New Orleans has the most favorable schedule of any Western playoff contender.

Of course, those two games against the Kings loom large. Sacramento has been one of the summer’s most disappointing teams so far, having lost winnable games to San Antonio, Orlando, and Dallas. But the Kings are still just 3.5 games back of the Grizzlies and aren’t dead yet — those two games against the Pelicans will be massive, and Friday’s matchup against Brooklyn is certainly favorable.

No matter what happens over the next week-and-a-half, it looks like a near certainty at this point that we’ll get a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed. The No. 8 team can only avoid a play-in tournament by finishing more than four games ahead of the No. 9 team, and right now even the 13th-seeded Kings are withing four games of Memphis.

Positioning will be crucial though. Only two teams can participate in that play-in tournament, so finishing 10th means little. Conversely, finishing in eighth place is massive, since it means only having to win once in the play-in tournament, rather than twice. At this point, there’s no guarantee the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 spot entering a play-in tournament — there’s even a chance they could slip to 10th or lower.

We want to know where you stand on the Western Conference playoff race. Has your opinion changed at all through the first six days of summer games? Which two teams do you think we’ll see in a play-in tournament? Which club do you expect to ultimately claim the No. 8 seed and face the Lakers in the first round of the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Jaren Jackson Jr. Out For Season With Meniscus Tear

August 4th, 2020 at 5:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has been diagnosed with a meniscus tear in his left knee, the team announced today in a press release. The injury, which Jackson sustained during Monday’s loss to the Pelicans, will cause him to miss the rest of the 2019/20 season, according to the club.

Jackson, who will turn 21 in September, is one of Memphis’ most important young building blocks, along with Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke. In his second NBA season, Jackson averaged 17.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 1.6 BPG on .469/.394/.747 shooting in 57 games (28.5 MPG). He missed some time in February and March with a sprain to the same left knee that is now injured again.

Although Jackson is expected to make a full recovery, the injury is an unfortunate development for both him and the Grizzlies, who are clinging to the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.

Having lost their first three games since play resumed this summer, the Grizzlies are now just two games ahead of the Trail Blazers and Spurs and 2.5 games up on New Orleans. Hanging onto that No. 8 spot – in the eight seeding games and possibly in a play-in tournament – will become an even greater challenge now that Memphis is missing its second-leading scorer.

With Jackson unavailable, the Grizzlies figure to lean more heavily on frontcourt rotation players like Clarke, Jonas Valanciunas, and Anthony Tolliver. Josh Jackson and Gorgui Dieng are among the bench players who should move up on the depth chart.

Jackson, meanwhile, will shift his focus to next season, when he’s under contract for $7.26MM. He’ll become eligible for a rookie scale extension during the 2021 offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mike Budenholzer, Billy Donovan Win Coaches Association Award

August 3rd, 2020 at 11:37am CST by Luke Adams

Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer and Thunder head coach Billy Donovan have been voted the co-coaches of the year by the National Basketball Coaches Association, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

This award, introduced in 2017, isn’t the NBA’s official Coach of the Year award, which is voted on by media members and is represented by the Red Auerbach Trophy. The winner of that award is expected to be announced at some point during the postseason this summer.

The Coaches Association’s version of the award – named after longtime NBCA executive director Michael H. Goldberg – is voted on by the NBA’s 30 head coaches, none of whom can vote for himself.

Budenholzer, who also won the NBCA’s award in 2019, has had even more success with the East-leading Bucks this season. His team has a 54-13 record and – before the season was suspended – had been on pace to surpass the 60 victories that last year’s Milwaukee squad racked up.

As for Donovan, he has exceeded expectations with a Thunder team that was viewed as a borderline playoff contender and a candidate for a full-fledged rebuild. Instead of returning to the lottery following the offseason departures of Russell Westbrook and Paul George, Oklahoma City is 41-24, good for sixth in the Western Conference. A strong finish over the next couple weeks could result in a top-four record in the conference for the Thunder.

Raptors head coach Nick Nurse, widely viewed as the favorite to win the official Coach of the Year award in 2020, was one vote away from finishing in a three-way tie with Budenholzer and Donovan, per Wojnarowski.

Sources tell ESPN that Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Nate McMillan (Pacers), Erik Spoelstra (Heat), and Brad Stevens (Celtics), and Frank Vogel (Lakers) also received votes.

Tyus Jones To Miss Some Seeding Games With Knee Soreness

July 29th, 2020 at 2:16pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Grizzlies backup point guard Tyus Jones is battling knee soreness and will miss at least a week of action before being reassessed, per an official team announcement (Twitter link).

The 32-33 Grizzlies, the West’s current No. 8 seed, will play their fourth seeding game a week from today, on August 5, against the 28-36 Pelicans, the current tenth seed. There are currently six teams in the West scheduled to compete for the conference’s eighth seed. The loss to the club’s depth in these crucial pre-playoff games could be an impediment.

Though Jones is a bench player averaging just 19.5 MPG, he is a consistent rotation piece who has logged time in every single game for the Grizzlies this season. The 6’3″ guard out of Duke signed a three-year, $24MM offer sheet with Memphis as a restricted free agent last summer — his former team, the Timberwolves, declined to match.

Jones is enjoying his best scoring year as a pro during his inaugural Grizzlies season, averaging a career-best 7.4 PPG on a career-high 45.9% field goal shooting. He’s also making a career-best 37.9% of his three-point attempts on 6.6 tries per night to go along with 4.4 APG and 1.6 RPG.

Chris Herrington of the Daily Memphian tweets that the loss of Jones will necessitate more time running the point for second-year guard De’Anthony Melton and that little-used Grizzlies backup Grayson Allen figures to receive rotation minutes during Jones’s absence.

How Winslow Injury Impacts Grizzlies

July 23rd, 2020 at 10:24am CST by Luke Adams

Noting that the club didn’t provide many details on the hip injury that brought Justise Winslow‘s season to an end and further delayed his Grizzlies debut, Chris Herrington of The Memphian attempts to make sense of what the injury means for the team this season and in 2020/21.

Grizzlies’ Winslow Out For Season With Hip Injury

July 21st, 2020 at 1:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Grizzlies forward Justise Winslow, acquired from the Heat at the trade deadline, won’t get a chance to make his debut with his new team this summer after all. According to a press release, Winslow fell during an intra-squad scrimmage on Monday and injured his hip. The injury will force him to miss the rest of the season, per the club.

It’s a tough break for the Grizzlies and for Winslow, who had already missed the majority of the 2019/20 season due to a back injury. The 24-year-old appeared in just 11 games for Miami before being shut down, and had yet to suit up for Memphis.

Winslow averaged 12.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.3 APG with a .433/.375/.628 shooting line in 66 games (29.7 MPG) in 2018/19, showing impressive versatility on both ends of the court and taking on primary ball-handling duties at times.

Winslow was the centerpiece of the deadline deal that saw the Grizzlies take on Dion Waiters‘ and Gorgui Dieng‘s pricey multiyear contracts and send Andre Iguodala to Miami. The hope was that the young swingman would emerge as a long-term building block on an up-and-coming Memphis squad led by Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. If that’s going to happen, it’ll have to start in 2020/21 — Winslow has a $13MM salary next season, with a $13MM team option for ’21/22.

Although the Grizzlies got some bad news on Winslow, the club’s roster as a whole should still be healthier than it was in March before the season was suspended. Jackson and Brandon Clarke are on track to return from injuries of their own, so Winslow’s absence won’t create a major hole in coach Taylor Jenkins‘ rotation.

The Grizzlies have a 3.5-game cushion for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference, but holding onto that final playoff berth won’t be easy. Memphis has one of the summer’s most challenging eight-game schedules, which concludes with games against the Jazz, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics, and Bucks.

Before that, the Grizzlies will have to face the Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Pelicans, three teams chasing them for the No. 8 seed. The Kings and – to a lesser extent – the Suns are also in the running.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rotation Will Benefit From Improved Health

July 20th, 2020 at 8:41pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist finally joined the Mavericks at the Orlando campus on Saturday, according to the Dallas Morning News’ Brad Townsend, and explained that his late arrival was due to personal reasons, Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News tweets. “I had some personal things I had to handle in my family,” he said. “I’m just happy to be here.” Guard Trey Burke still hasn’t joined the team but he should arrive soon, Townsend adds.

We have more from the Southwest Division:

The extended layoff will result in a new look for the Grizzlies’ rotation, Evan Barnes of the Memphis Commercial Appeal notes. Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen are healthy again and the first three will play major roles in Memphis’ aim to make the playoffs.
[UPDATE: Grizzlies’ Winslow Out For Season With Hip Injury]
Seth Curry said his success with the Mavericks is due in large part to coach Rick Carlisle’s faith in him, he told Dwain Price of the team’s website. Curry, who signed a four-year, $32MM deal last summer, is averaging 12.6 PPG in 24.5 MPG while making 45.3% of his 3-pointers this season. “He allows me to play on and off the ball, and he just gives me a lot of opportunities and a lot of minutes,” Curry said. “He’s given me the most minutes of my career so far and it allows me to get better as the season goes along, so it’s been a great fit for both of us.”
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has stated he’s more interested in player development than securing a playoff spot in Orlando. That will benefit a player like 20-year-old rookie swingman Keldon Johnson, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express News writes. “I just love the chance to get out there and show what I can do,” he said. The late first-round pick in the June 2019 draft averaged 7.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 1.3 SPG in the last four games before the hiatus.

Increased Depth Is 'Welcome Dilemma' For Grizzlies

July 16th, 2020 at 12:04pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies will enter the NBA’s restart with a healthier roster than they’ve had all season, creating what Michael Wallace of Grizzlies.com refers to as a “welcome dilemma” for Taylor Jenkins. Memphis has already exceeded expectations this year despite dealing with some injuries — now the team will have added depth to allow Jenkins to try to find even more effective lineup combinations.

“We’re sorting through different combinations, but not trying to lose the lineups that were successful for us to this point,” the Grizzlies’ head coach said. “We’re going to have some really tough decisions to make, but that only means you have some great depth. We’re built on competing. We’re always prepared to have 17 guys ready to go at any given moment.”

Besides having Justise Winslow – acquired at the trade deadline – available for the first time this summer, the Grizzlies will also have Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke back in their lineup. Jackson had missed the team’s nine games leading up to the hiatus in March, while Clarke had been out for eight games.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Seeding

July 13th, 2020 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

As we detailed on Friday when we discussed the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, there will be an opportunity for teams to move up – or down – in the standings when play resumes on July 30.

With eight “seeding games” on tap, teams are unlikely to make up five- or six-game deficits on the clubs ahead of them in the standings, but there’s a strong likelihood of a shake-up in instances where teams are only separated by a game or two.

That’s even more true in the Western Conference than it is in the East, albeit not necessarily at the very top of the standings, where the 49-14 Lakers hold a fairly comfortable lead on the 44-20 Clippers. The Lakers’ magic number to clinch the conference is just three, so they’re a safe bet to hang onto the No. 1 seed.

After that though, there’s some congestion in the standings. The Clippers’ lead on the Nuggets (43-22) is just 1.5 games. Denver holds an identical lead over the Jazz (41-23). Utah, meanwhile, is just a couple losses away from slipping down to the No. 6 seed, as the Thunder (40-24) and Rockets (40-24) are right on their heels. The 40-27 Mavericks round out this group of six teams, a game-and-a-half behind OKC and Houston and just 5.5 games behind the second-seeded Clippers.

A number of those six clubs bunched up in the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture will face one another when play resumes. For instance, the Thunder – who have the potential to move up or down a couple spots in the standings – will open the restart against the Jazz and Nuggets and eventually finish their season against the Clippers. The Clips will face the Mavericks and Nuggets in addition to OKC. Dallas opens its eight seeding games by playing the Rockets.

Given the strength of competition in the West, seeding could be paramount in the postseason. The Nuggets, for example, could conceivably face the Jazz, Thunder, Rockets, or Mavs in the first round and would likely prefer some opponents to others in that group. The Jazz, currently at No. 4, could be motivated to avoid the No. 6 Rockets in the first round, since they’ve been eliminated by Houston in each of the previous two postseasons.

At the bottom of the playoff picture, the No. 8 Grizzlies (32-33) have essentially no chance to move up, since they’re seven games back of Dallas. But they’ll be looking to increase their lead over the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, and Suns — if they can finish with more than a four-game lead on all those clubs, they’ll avoid a play-in tournament. If the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds finish within four games of one another, a play-in tournament will be necessary to determine that final playoff spot.

A newly-healthy Blazers squad will be a major threat to the Grizzlies, as will a Pelicans team that faces one of the league’s weakest schedules over the course of the eight seeding games.

What do you think? Do you think we’ll see much movement in the Western Conference’s top eight? Will the Grizzlies be knocked out by one of the challengers behind them in the standings? What do you expect the West’s top eight seeds to look like by the time the playoffs begin?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your predictions!

Exploring How Justise Winslow Fits With Grizzlies

July 12th, 2020 at 5:57pm CST by JD Shaw

Evan Barnes of the Memphis Commercial Appeal examines how Justise Winslow fits in with the Grizzlies, particularly under head coach Taylor Jenkins’ offensive system. Jenkins indicated that Winslow will likely be used in a play-making role during the NBA’s resumed season, Barnes writes. “His versatility is really going to come out in our style of play,” Jenkins said. “That’s why I talk about him being just a great fit and a perfect fit for our system because he can play multiple positions on offense.”