June 25th, 2020 at 9:09pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum
The Pelicans, currently occupying the No. 10 Western Conference playoff seed with a 28-36 record, are 3.5 games behind the 32-33 Grizzlies, the present No. 8 seed.
Due to soft attendance numbers during the 2019/20 season, the Grizzlies may be able to exercise an “early termination” option in the team’s lease on its publicly-funded home arena, the FedEx Forum, according to Geoff Calkins of the Daily Memphian. Team owner Robert Pera and local municipalities are anticipated to begin appraising various possible courses of action.
With NBA teams just a couple weeks away from traveling to Orlando to enter the Walt Disney World “bubble,” the stats on coronavirus cases in Orange County, Florida continue to be worrisome. As Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press relays (via Twitter), data from Wednesday morning showed that the area had 561 new cases on Tuesday, with a positive test rate of 17.3%.
The recent COVID-19 numbers in Florida are “extremely concerning,” epidemiologist Zachary Binney tells Henry Bushnell of Yahoo Sports, who spoke to a series of experts to get their thoughts on the NBA’s restart plan. Binney noted that he thought the NBA’s plan was a good one, but cautioned that it’s being compromised by Florida’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Since Walt Disney World staffers have to go in and out of the bubble, there’s a greater chance that one of them will bring the virus with them now that it’s becoming so prevalent in the Orlando area.
Despite some worrying COVID-19 trends, people around the NBA are still expressing confidence that the plan can work. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban recently told Steve Selby of The New York Post that the Orlando bubble will likely be safer than a player’s home city, given all the testing happening at Disney. Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta, meanwhile, said on CNBC on Tuesday that the NBA and other sports leagues will have to prepare to deal with some positive test results.
“I think (the NBA season) is going to get off the ground,” Fertitta said, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. “I don’t know if it’s going to stay. But we’re going to do whatever. You’re going to follow the protocols. It’s no different from one of our businesses. If somebody’s sick, you send them home. Everybody else watch themselves. Sanitize the establishment, and you have to move on.
“If you’re not willing to say, ‘Oh my gosh, (hypothetically) three people tested today for the Houston Rockets, and three people tested today for the L.A. Lakers. Those guys go home, and we’re going to play the games’ — if we’re not willing to recognize that that’s going to be what happens, then we’re not going to complete the season, not in football, baseball, basketball or whatever.”
Here’s more on the NBA’s restart:
Magic CEO Alex Martins told Orange County officials today that the NBA’s plan is for games to be played “all day long” inside three Disney arenas when the season restarts (Twitter link via Tim Reynolds). A “stringent sanitation process” will occur between games, Martins added.
The NBA and NBPA each issued press releases today announcing that they’ve made progress in talks to advance social justice issues. The two sides “agreed in principle that the goal of the season restart in Orlando will be to take collective action to combat systemic racism and promote social justice,” according to the announcements from the league and the players’ union.
Although he hasn’t given any indication that he plans to opt out of the NBA’s restart, Grizzlies forward Justise Winslow recently questioned the league’s plan, suggesting that the NBA and NBPA are focused on money rather than player safety. Evan Barnes of The Memphis Commercial Appeal has the details.
In an opinion column, Mark Medina of USA Today contends that players who voluntarily opt out of the NBA restart this summer shouldn’t feel guilty for doing so.
JUNE 23: The signing is official, according to the team’s Twitter feed.
JUNE 22: The Grizzlies and forward Anthony Tolliver have reached a verbal agreement on a deal that can be officially completed once the NBA’s transaction window opens on Tuesday, league sources tell Marc Stein of The New York Times (Twitter link).
Stein first reported over the weekend that Tolliver was drawing interest from a handful of teams, but appeared likely to rejoin the Grizzlies. According to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link), the veteran free agent ended up deciding between the Grizzlies and Raptors, opting to return to Memphis.
Tolliver, 35, appeared in 33 games for the Trail Blazers this season and another nine with Sacramento before he was bought out by the Kings. In five games on his initial 10-day contract with the Grizzlies, he averaged 5.4 PPG and 2.4 RPG on .381/.412/1.000 shooting in 19.2 minutes per contest.
Tolliver’s last 10-day deal, signed on March 2, had been set to expire on March 11, the night the NBA officially suspended its season. So even if the league had carried over active 10-day pacts once the season resumes, Tolliver would have needed to sign a new contract. He figures to get a rest-of-season deal that will put him on track to reach unrestricted free agency in the fall.
Bulls guard Kris Dunn has been deemed to have met the starter criteria as a result of the shortened season, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link). As a result, Dunn will receive a qualifying offer of $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800 this offseason if Chicago wants to make him a restricted free agent.
We broke down Dunn’s situation in greater depth earlier this month, but the abridged version is this: A player eligible for restricted free agency receives a more lucrative qualifying offer if he starts 41 games or plays 2,000 minutes in the season before he reaches free agency, or if he averages 41 starts or 2,000 minutes in the two seasons before his free agency.
Dunn, who started 32 games this season and 76 in total over the last two years, fell slightly short of the 41-game-per-season requirement, but the criteria became prorated due to the Bulls only playing 65 of their 82 games this season. As a result, the former No. 5 overall pick was considered to have met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his qualifying offer.
As we’ve previously pointed out, the $2.5MM difference could have a real impact on Dunn’s free agency. It’s possible the Bulls will be less inclined to tender a qualifying offer now that it’s worth $7.1MM instead of $4.6MM. If they do move ahead with the QO, it’s possible Dunn will be more inclined to accept it.
If Chicago doesn’t tender a qualifying offer to Dunn, he’d become an unrestricted free agent.
As Marks and ESPN have previously reported, the NBA and NBPA also agreed to prorate the criteria for bonuses and incentives available to players in 2019/20, based on the shortened season. As a result, the following players have now achieved bonuses, according to Marks (Twitter link):
Rudy Gobert (Jazz): $250K for a rate of one rebound per 2.52 minutes in 62 games played.
Original criteria: A rate of one rebound per <3.2 minutes in 67 games.
Solomon Hill (Heat): $532K for 992 minutes played.
Original criteria: 1,000 minutes.
Jrue Holiday (Pelicans): $255K for 1,922 minutes played; $255K for 55 games played; $255K for 4.9 RPG in 55 games.
Original criteria: 2,075 minutes played; 66 games played; 3.15 RPG in 67 games.
The Grizzlies have hired Austin Spurs assistant Blake Ahearn to their coaching staff, the team announced in a press release. Ahearn is the sixth assistant coach on Memphis’ staff, leaving the Spurs’ minor league affiliate in Austin to accept the position. He’ll participate in various player development efforts with the Grizzlies, including shooting development.
With the NBA’s transaction window starting next week, Anthony Tolliver will likely end up re-signing with the Grizzlies during that period, according to Marc Stein of the New York Times (Twitter link). However, Stein cautions that Tolliver has attracted interest from multiple teams, so the veteran forward’s return to Memphis is not yet a done deal.
Tolliver, 35, was on a 10-day contract with Memphis that was set to expire just before the NBA suspended its season in March. The NBA veteran had split the 2019/20 campaign with the Blazers, Kings and Grizzlies. Across 47 games, he averaged 3.5 PPG and 2.8 RPG.
As Stein mentions in a separate tweet, players who are eligible to be signed are those who held a job in either the NBA or the G League this season. Additionally, players who were not under contract with a team outside of the United States are eligible to be signed as well.
A number of players with performance incentives and bonus clauses in their contracts didn’t get the opportunity to earn those bonuses in 2019/20 due to the suspension of the NBA season and the league’s subsequent hiatus.
However, according to Ramona Shelburne and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, the NBA and NBPA have reached an agreement on how to handle performance incentives in ’19/20. The criteria for those bonuses will be prorated, using March 11 as the end of the regular season, so stats accumulated during the eight “seeding games” this summer won’t count toward those incentives.
For instance, Tyus Jones‘ contract with the Grizzlies includes an $858K bonus in the event that Memphis wins 33 games. Prior to the hiatus, the Grizzlies had 32 victories. Rather than needing the Grizzlies win one more game when play resumes, Jones will already be assured of his bonus, since a 32-33 record prorated over a full 82-game season would work out to 40 wins.
Similarly, Raptors guard Kyle Lowry has a series of bonuses related to his All-Star berth and his team’s postseason success that require him to play at least 65 games. When the season went on hiatus, Lowry had appeared in 52 of Toronto’s 64 games. Prorated over an 82-game season, that would work out to approximately 67 of 82 games, so Lowry will be considered to have met that 65-game threshold. He’ll receive his $200K All-Star bonus and could earn up to another $1.5MM, depending on how far the Raptors advance in the playoffs.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks broke down a number of these bonuses and incentives in an earlier Insider-only story. Another important one, noted by Shelburne and Wojnarowski, affects Sixers center Joel Embiid.
The final three years of Embiid’s maximum-salary contract, through 2022/23, had previously only been conditionally guaranteed, with the 76ers retaining the ability to gain salary relief if the veteran center suffered a career-threatening injury related to his back or feet. In order to fully guarantee those salaries, Embiid had to log 1,650 minutes this season.
When the season was suspended, Embiid was only at 1,329 minutes played. However, Philadelphia had only played 65 of 82 games. Prorated over a full season, Embiid’s average number of minutes per Sixers game (approximately 20.45) would work out to 1,677, surpassing the 1,650-minute threshold and ensuring his upcoming salaries are fully guaranteed.
Players whose bonuses and incentives rely on a percentage are unaffected by proration. For example, Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber would receive a $75K bonus for an 80% free-throw rate and another $150K for a 40% three-point average. His percentages are currently 86.3% and 37.4%, respectively, so he’ll receive the first bonus — but not the second. The same would have been true if he had finished at 80.1% and 39.9%.
After reporting on Wednesday that several dozen players have expressed reservations about the NBA’s plan to resume its season in Orlando this summer, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski provided a few more details in a full story and in subsequenttweets.
According to Wojnarowski, approximately 40 to 50 players were “on and off” a conference call in a 24-hour stretch from Tuesday to Wednesday to discuss their concerns. However, there has been no formal petition to the NBPA from any group asking not to be included in the restart, sources tell ESPN.
The “restrictive and isolated” nature of the proposed Orlando bubble is a major issue being discussed ny those concerned players, per Wojnarowski. Players who leave the bubble are expected to be subjected a 10-day quarantine, and family members won’t be permitted to join players at Disney until after the first round of the playoffs — players will have been in Orlando for nearly two months by that point.
It remains to be seen how many players will seriously consider skipping the restart altogether. However, sources tell ESPN that if a player does decide not to participate, his team will likely be permitted to replace him with a substitution player. A player who is supplanted by a replacement player wouldn’t be eligible to participate in the remainder of the season, Woj notes. In other words, a player who stays home and gets replaced wouldn’t be able to change his mind and report to Orlando if his team makes a deep postseason run.
According to Wojnarowski, if a player has a medical issue that may increase his risk of suffering more serious COVID-19 symptoms, he’ll be permitted to seek an independent medical evaluation. Even if he’s deemed fit to participate in the resumed season, the player could stay home without consequence (beyond not being paid for the games they miss).
Here’s more on the NBA’s restart:
According to a Professional Basketball Writers Association memo obtained by Robert Silverman of The Daily Beast, there’s a chance that a select group of reporters could be permitted to cover the resumed season and interact with players and coaches in Orlando. However, those reporters wouldn’t be permitted to re-enter the bubble if they leave, and their employers would have to pay for their housing during their three months at Disney, the cost of which may be prohibitive for many outlets.
ABC and ESPN play-by-play announcer Mike Breen isn’t sure what the plans are for his role this summer, but hopes he’ll get the opportunity to call games in person in Orlando, as he tells Richard Deitsch of The Athletic. “We could possibly be doing games from a remote location, from a studio, or we could possibly be down in Orlando and doing the games there in a booth that socially distanced away from the players,” Breen said. “Everything is going to be determined over the next couple of weeks. But I would like to be in the arena to call the games.”
A panel of ESPN writers takes a closer look at the nine competitors for the final three playoff spots, evaluating the cases for and against the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, Nets, Magic, and Wizards earning a postseason berth.
When the NBA season was suspended in March, the Grizzlies held a 3.5-game lead over the top challengers for the No. 8 seed, but were entering one of the toughest stretches of their 2019/20 schedule. At 32-33, Memphis had 17 games left. Of those 17 games, 11 were against playoff teams and five were against immediate threats to the Grizzlies’ playoff spot (Portland, New Orleans, and San Antonio).
Now that the league has settled on playing just eight more games this summer, the Grizzlies’ path to a postseason spot is simpler in some ways, but more complicated in others. Any team hoping to pass the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed will have to make up four games in an eight-game stretch, which will be a tall order.
Even if the Grizzlies play sub-.500 ball and go 3-5 when play resumes, the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, or Spurs will have to go 7-1 to surpass or match them. The Suns, who are six games back, wouldn’t even be able to catch Memphis if the Grizz win more than two games.
However, the NBA’s new rules for Orlando also ensure that the Grizzlies will be subject to a play-in tournament if at least one team finishes within four games of them. In other words, unless Memphis increases or maintains its lead over all five teams behind them in the Western Conference standings during those eight seeding games, a play-in tournament is happening.
The Grizzlies would still have a leg up in that play-in tournament, which would pit them against the No. 9 team. Memphis would only have to win one game, while the challenger would have to win twice. But the club wouldn’t have much room for error — losing the first game in the play-in tournament would result in a winner-take-all second game.
Assuming the summer schedule is made up primarily of the next games on the team’s initial schedule, as expected, the Grizzlies will still have a challenging path, but it won’t be too grueling. Memphis wouldn’t be a major underdog against Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, or New Orleans (twice). And while the Grizzlies would likely have to face the Bucks and possibly the Celtics, none of the West’s top three teams would be on their upcoming slate.
What do you think? When play resumes this summer, will the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, clinching it outright or in a play-in tournament? Or will another team make a run and claim the conference’s final postseason berth?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
The eight teams not included in the Orlando restart will be the top eight teams in the lottery standings.
The 9-14 spots in the lottery will be made up of the six teams that don’t make the playoffs following this summer’s “seeding games” and possible play-in tournaments. Their seedings and odds will be based on their records as of March 11.
The rest of the first round will be sorted by record, as usual. The order will be based on teams’ regular season results and the results of the eight seeding games this summer.
With those rules in mind, we have a pretty good sense of how traded first round picks for 2020 will be affected, so let’s take a closer look…
Picks whose fates have essentially been decided:
Cavaliers‘ first-round pick (traded to Pelicans if not in top 10)
As the league’s second-worst team in 2019/20, the Cavaliers can’t fall below sixth in the lottery, so they’ll keep their pick, which will land anywhere from No. 1 to 6.
Sixers‘ first-round pick (traded to Nets if not in top 14)
The Sixers have a nine-game lead on Orlando, which means they’ve now clinched a playoff spot and will send their pick to Brooklyn. It’s currently projected to land at No. 19 or 20, but it could move up or down based on this summer’s seeding games.
Pacers‘ first-round pick (traded to Bucks if not in top 14)
Like the Sixers, the Pacers have now clinched a playoff spot, which assures they’ll send their pick to Milwaukee. This pick is also currently projected to land at No. 19 or 20 (Philadelphia and Indiana are tied at 39-26), but it could move higher or lower once play resumes.
Rockets‘ first-round pick (traded to Nuggets)
This pick is unprotected, so the Rockets will send it to Denver. At 40-24, the Rockets are tied with Oklahoma City, putting their pick in line to be No. 21 or 22. They’re bunched up with a few teams in the standings though, so that could change when play resumes.
Jazz‘s first-round pick (traded to Grizzlies if it falls between 8-14)
The Jazz have now clinched a spot in the postseason, so they’ll keep their pick for at least one more year. It’s currently projected to be No. 24 overall, but that may change.
Nuggets‘ first-round pick (traded to Thunder)
An unprotected pick, the Nuggets’ first-rounder is currently projected to be No. 25. They’ll send it to Oklahoma City.
Clippers‘ first-round pick (traded to Knicks)
This is another unprotected selection, which the Clippers will send to New York. For now, it projects to be No. 27.
Bucks‘ first-round pick (traded to Celtics)
The Bucks, who will send this pick to Boston, have a four-game lead for the NBA’s best record, so this selection will likely be No. 30, though it could theoretically move up a spot or two.
Picks whose fates remain up in the air:
Nets‘ first-round pick (traded to Timberwolves if not in top 14)
At 30-34, the Nets have a half-game lead over Orlando and a six-game cushion over Washington. If they slump when play resumes, there’s a scenario in which they lose their playoff spot. The Magic would have to pass them and the Wizards would have to pull to within four games before beating Brooklyn twice in a row in a play-in tournament.
If the Nets miss the playoffs, this pick would end up at either No. 13 or 14 in the lottery standings, and Brooklyn would keep it.
If the Nets hang on a clinch a playoff spot, it figures to be the No. 15, 16, or 17 pick, and they’ll send it to the Timberwolves.
Grizzlies‘ first-round pick (traded to Celtics if it’s not in top six)
The Grizzlies have a 3.5-game lead over three Western teams (Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento), with a four-game cushion over San Antonio and a six-game cushion over Phoenix.
They’re in position to secure a playoff spot, and if they do, they’ll send this pick to the Celtics. It would fall between Nos. 15-17.
If the Grizzlies lose their playoff spot, they’ll move to No. 14 in the lottery standings. In all likelihood, the pick would end up there and they’d still have to send it to Boston. However, they’d have a minuscule chance (2.4%) of moving into the top four via the lottery, in which case they’d keep the pick.
Thunder‘s first-round pick (traded to Sixers if not in top 20)
Based on the Thunder’s current 40-24 record, this pick currently projects to be No. 21 or 22, in which case OKC would have to send it to Philadelphia.
However, if the Thunder lose ground during this summer’s seeding games, they could be surpassed in the standings by as many as three teams, meaning the pick could end up in the No. 18-20 range. In that case, Oklahoma City would keep it.