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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division

January 17th, 2020 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

If the Rockets and Mavericks make moves before the trade deadline, they’ll likely be looking to shore up their rosters in order to make a push to secure a top-four seed in the West. However, in today’s look at Southwest trade candidates, we’re focusing on the division’s other three teams, whose approaches to the deadline remain unclear. Let’s dive in…

DeMarre Carroll, F
San Antonio Spurs
$7MM cap hit; $6.7MM guaranteed salary in 2020/21; $7MM non-guaranteed salary in 2021/22

Nearly a month ago, Carroll acknowledged that he wasn’t playing as much this season as he expected to when he joined the Spurs last summer, and admitted that accepting his reduced role had been “difficult.” Since then, the veteran forward has appeared in four games, logging fewer than 15 total minutes.

There’s been no indication that Carroll has asked the Spurs to trade him, but given his lack of playing time and the team’s up-and-down play this season, it seems safe to assume he wouldn’t object to a change of scenery.

Carroll’s value has probably taken a hit due to his absence from San Antonio’s lineup and his small-sample struggles. The Spurs also aren’t historically very active on the trade market during the season — their last in-season trade was completed in 2014, and that Nando De Colo/Austin Daye swap wasn’t exactly a blockbuster.

With those factors working against a deal, Carroll will probably end up staying put through the deadline. But if San Antonio does make a move, a smaller-scale trade involving a player like Carroll seems more likely than a franchise-changing shake-up involving someone like DeMar DeRozan or LaMarcus Aldridge.

Jae Crowder, F
Memphis Grizzlies
$7.8MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Crowder looked like a more logical trade candidate back on December 7, when the Grizzlies were 6-16 and seemed safely lottery-bound. For teams who perhaps couldn’t afford Andre Iguodala‘s $17MM salary but were seeking a playoff-tested three-and-D wing, Crowder and his expiring contract made all the sense in the world as a potential target.

Since then though, Memphis has won 13 of 19 games, jumping all the way up to No. 8 in the Western Conference, and Crowder has had a major hand in that resurgence, as no Grizzlies player has played more minutes so far this season.

Crowder’s play has earned him “renewed attention” from possible suitors, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic. However, Hollinger doesn’t think the Grizzlies will receive an offer so strong that they’ll feel compelled to move him — especially since re-signing the forward at season’s end isn’t entirely out of the question. At age 29, Crowder isn’t necessarily too old to play alongside the franchise’s young core for a few more years.

Derrick Favors, F/C
New Orleans Pelicans
$17.7MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Like Crowder, Favors is a veteran on an expiring contract who would fit right in on a contender and has been monitored by teams this season. But a handful of factors – including a recent hot streak, a close race for the West’s No. 8 seed, and Zion Williamson‘s impending return – all point toward the Pelicans deciding not to become sellers this winter.

After all, the Pelicans’ 9-3 stretch – following a 7-23 start – has pulled them within 3.5 games of the Grizzlies for that eighth spot in the conference, and selling off veterans now would dampen fans’ rising enthusiasm for the team.

Assuming the Pelicans plan to push for a spot in the postseason, Favors is the team’s most reliable option at the five, as he showed with his 21-point, 11-rebound performance in Thursday’s win over Utah. That’s not to say a trade is out of the question, as Favors is probably more likely to be moved than Jrue Holiday or J.J. Redick. But I get the sense that David Griffin would like to see what this squad can do when it’s fully healthy and may wait until the offseason to make any serious changes.

Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Grizzlies’ Bruno Caboclo To Miss 4-6 Weeks

January 17th, 2020 at 10:41am CST by Luke Adams

Grizzlies forward Bruno Caboclo suffered a hyperextended left knee and bone bruise while playing for the Memphis Hustle in a G League game on Monday, the team announced today in a press release. According to the Grizzlies, Caboclo is expected to be sidelined for approximately four-to-six weeks while the bruise heals.

A former first-round pick, Caboclo played well for the Grizzlies in the second half last season, averaging 8.3 PPG and 4.6 RPG on .427/.369/.840 shooting in 34 games (23.5 MPG).

That performance earned him a guaranteed contract and roster spot in 2019/20, but he hasn’t had a major role for the club this season, logging just 8.7 MPG in 22 games. His shooting percentages (.406 FG%, .160 3PT%) have also dropped significantly, though the sample size is small.

Caboclo, 24, will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, assuming he finishes out his current contract. He and Josh Jackson look like the most probable candidates to be released if the Grizzlies make a trade that sees them take back more players than they send out.

Dillon Brooks Meets Starter Criteria

January 15th, 2020 at 9:06pm CST by Arthur Hill

Dillon Brooks met the starter criteria by starting his 41st game of the season for the Grizzlies last night, tweets Bobby Marks of ESPN. As a result, his qualifying offer will increase from $2MM to $3.1MM, which will also be the amount of his free agent cap hold.

Community Shootaround: Grizzlies’ Outlook

January 14th, 2020 at 12:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Entering the 2019/20 season, no Western Conference team was projected to win fewer games than the Grizzlies. Oddsmakers set Memphis’ over/under at 27.5 wins and Hoops Rumors voters confidently took the under in our preseason poll.

Through the first quarter of the season, that projection looked about right. The Grizzlies’ 6-16 record put them on a 31-win pace, and while Rookie of the Year frontrunner Ja Morant made Memphis an entertaining League Pass team, it seemed as if it would just be a matter of time before the club fell out of playoff contention and entered the race for the No. 1 pick.

Instead, the Grizzlies have been one of the NBA’s hottest teams in recent weeks, winning 12 of their last 18 games to improve their overall record to 18-22. Memphis is currently riding a five-game winning streak that includes victories over the Clippers and Spurs, and has moved into the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.

Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been the catalysts for the Grizzlies’ hot streak. Morant is averaging 16.9 PPG and 7.4 APG with a .517/.368/.846 shooting line during that 18-game stretch, while Jackson has recorded 20.2 PPG and 1.8 BPG on .522/.449/.696 shooting during the same period. Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are also among the club’s most productive contributors, though the team isn’t just relying on young players.

Eighth-year big man Jonas Valanciunas is averaging a double-double (16.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG) with a .630 FG% during Memphis’ 12-6 run, while veteran forward Jae Crowder is playing more minutes this season than anyone else on the roster, providing a reliable three-and-D presence on the wing.

It seems improbable that the Grizzlies will be able to actually hold onto the No. 8 seed in the West, but it’s not as if the competition for that spot has been intense. The Spurs (17-21) and Trail Blazers (17-24) were expected to be playoff teams, but have underachieved. The Suns (16-23), Timberwolves (15-24), Kings (15-25), and Pelicans (15-26) have been up and down too.

Additionally, despite being in rebuilding mode, the Grizzlies have no reason not to push for a playoff spot, since they owe their top-six protected first-round pick to the Celtics in 2020. That pick would become unprotected in 2021 if Memphis keeps it this year, so the team may just prefer to send it to Boston this season and get that commitment out of the way. It would certainly be easier to swallow if it lands at No. 15 instead of No. 7.

The Grizzlies won’t give up any future draft picks or young prospects in exchange for a win-now piece, but there are potentially ways the team could fortify its current roster for a postseason push. We’ve been assuming that Memphis will eventually move Andre Iguodala for a package made up of an unwanted contract or two and perhaps a second-round pick — but maybe there’s a way to turn Iguodala into a player that could actually contribute to this year’s squad.

Obviously, if the Grizzlies can acquire a valuable draft asset for Iguodala, they should favor that return over a veteran on a short-term contract. But a veteran rotation player might make more sense than a late second-rounder. After all, young players like Morant and Jackson would probably benefit from getting some playoff experience – however brief – this early in their NBA careers.

What do you think? Are you a believer in the Grizzlies? Can they remain in the playoff hunt and maybe even grab the No. 8 seed? Will they fall off down the stretch like the Kings did a year ago? Or will their playoff dreams die even earlier than that? As they approach the trade deadline, should they be thinking at all about acquiring immediate help, or should they be focused exclusively on the long term?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the upstart Grizzlies!

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Checking In On 2020’s Protected First-Round Picks

January 14th, 2020 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2019/20 NBA regular season, with several teams having already played their 41st game. As such, it’s a good time to check in on the traded 2020 first-round picks that have protections on them to get a sense of whether or not those protections will be applied this year.

Of this year’s 30 first-round selections, 10 have been traded, and all 10 have some form of protection on them. In other words, the ’19/20 standings will dictate whether or not those first-rounders actually change hands in 2020.

Here’s our latest look at which of those picks are safe bets to move, which ones will likely be retained, and which ones are still up in the air:

Likely to change hands:

Bucks acquiring Pacers‘ pick (top-14 protected)
Celtics acquiring Bucks‘ pick (top-7 protected)
Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (top-14 protected)
Thunder acquiring Nuggets‘ pick (top-10 protected)

It’s safe to say at this point that the Pacers (25-15), Bucks (35-6), Sixers (25-16), and Nuggets (27-12) aren’t missing the playoffs this season, which means their traded first-round picks, which range from lottery-protected to top-7 protected, will be on the move.

Currently, the Milwaukee and Denver picks project to fall near the end of the first round, while the Philadelphia and Indiana selections could end up in the late-teens or early-20s, as our Reverse Standings show.

Unlikely to change hands:

Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘ pick (1-7, 15-30 protected)
Nets acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected)

The Warriors (9-32) keeping their first-round pick is the safest bet on the board. Not only will that first-rounder land within the top 20, but it appears likely to be a top-five selection. Brooklyn will see the value of that asset decline significantly when it’s officially protected this year, receiving a 2025 second-round pick in place of that first-rounder.

Meanwhile, the Jazz (27-12) would have to finish out of the playoffs for the Grizzlies to get their first-rounder this year. That was always unlikely to happen, even before Utah’s recent hot streak. The protections on that pick will roll over to 2021 and will be identical next year (1-7 and 15-30).

Still up in the air:

Celtics acquiring Grizzlies‘ pick (top-6 protected)
Hawks acquiring Nets‘ pick (top-14 protected)
Pelicans acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-10 protected)
Sixers acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-20 protected)

Usually by this point in the season, we have a reasonably clear idea of which draft picks will be protected, but these four first-rounders are still very much up in the air.

The Thunder (23-17) weren’t considered a probable playoff team entering the season, but they’re comfortably holding the seventh seed in the West for now and project to have the No. 18 pick. Another winning streak or two could move that pick outside the top 20, which would be good news for the Sixers. If the pick is protected this year and Oklahoma City keeps it, Philadelphia would instead receive second-rounders in 2022 and 2023.

Like OKC, the Grizzlies (18-22) are defying modest expectations and hold one of the final playoff spots in the West. If they keep playing like this, there’s no chance their pick will end up in the top six, so it would be sent to the Celtics. But if Memphis doesn’t make the playoffs, there’s always a chance the lottery could push that selection into the top four, where the Grizzlies would keep it. In that scenario, Memphis would owe Boston its unprotected 2021 first-round pick.

The Nets (18-20) are the eighth seed in the East for the time being, and would send their lottery-protected to Atlanta as long as they hang onto a playoff spot. The Hawks would be happy for the Nets to stay where they are, resulting in the No. 16 overall pick. If Brooklyn slips out of the playoff picture and hangs onto its protected first-rounder, Atlanta would almost certainly receive a less valuable pick in 2021 when Kevin Durant returns and makes the Nets a more dangerous team.

Finally, it may seem safe to assume that the Cavaliers (12-28) will keep their top-10 protected pick, but we’re not writing that in pen yet. Even though the Cavs currently have the NBA’s fourth-worst record, only 3.5 games separate them from the 15-24 Timberwolves, who are the league’s 11th-worst team. I expect Cleveland to continue losing as the team shops its veterans, but there are enough bad teams in the NBA that hanging onto their pick can’t quite be considered a lock.

NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 1/13/20

January 13th, 2020 at 8:03pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Here are Monday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the league:

The Clippers assigned rookie center Mfiondu Kabengele to the Agua Caliente Clippers, the team’s PR department tweets. Kabelgele, a late first-round pick, is averaging 16.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG for the G League team in 15 starts.
The Grizzlies assigned forward Bruno Caboclo and Marko Guduric to the Memphis Hustle, the team’s PR department tweets. They will play in the Hustle’s game against the Santa Cruz Warriors on Monday. Caboclo has appeared in 22 games with the Grizzlies this season but only one this month. Guduric has appeared in 28 games but has only made two cameos since December 14.
The Celtics assigned rookie guard Carsen Edwards to the Maine Red Claws, the team tweets. The second-round pick has seen action in 27 NBA games.

Celtics Notes: Memphis Pick, Brown, Poirier, Walker

January 12th, 2020 at 12:03pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Grizzlies‘ first-rounder that the Celtics own is a volatile asset heading into this year’s trade deadline, Sean Deveney writes for Forbes. The pick is top-six protected and becomes unprotected in 2021 if it doesn’t convey this year. Memphis is currently eighth in the West, but only three-and-a-half games ahead of the 14th-place Pelicans.

“(The Celtics) have been active in terms of seeing what is out there,” a general manager told Deveney. “I don’t think they want to sit on their hands. I am not sure how much they can realistically get done, though, because the Memphis pick is such a wild card. They can’t do anything significant unless they move that pick.”

Deveney identifies the Wizards‘ Davis Bertans and the Timberwolves‘ Robert Covington as possible trade targets. He states that Bertans is probably available for the Memphis pick, along with Enes Kanter and Semi Ojeleye. However, Bertans is entering free agency and Boston probably can’t afford to re-sign him with Jayson Tatum due for an extension. Covington is under contract for two more seasons and Deveney suggests the Celtics could get him for Kanter, Daniel Theis and the Bucks‘ 2020 first-rounder, allowing them to keep the Grizzlies’ pick.

There’s more out of Boston:

Jaylen Brown doesn’t believe Brandon Ingram was referring to him when he talked about being surprised that certain players received rookie scale extensions, relays Tom Westerholm of MassLive. “When we talked about the extension, of course, I’m human,” Ingram said in a recent interview with ESPN’s Andrew Lopez. “When I look at other guys, I’m like, ‘This (expletive) got an extension? Oh my god. Man, we can lace up right now and play one-on-one to 15 and this (expletive) won’t score.’ That’s how I looked at it as a competitor.” Asked about the comments after last night’s game against the Pelicans, Brown, who received a four-year, $115MM extension, responded, “I don’t feel any type of way, because I don’t feel like they apply to me.”
Vincent Poirier could soon provide some depth at center, coach Brad Stevens tells Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. Poirier is nearing a return after being sidelined since December 17 with a broken finger.
The Celtics snapped a three-game losing streak last night, but the recent downturn wasn’t alarming for Kemba Walker, who brings an outsider’s perspective after his years with the Hornets, writes John Karalis of MassLive. “I’ve lost so many more than three games in a row throughout the course of my career,” Walker said. “Plenty of times, so this is nothing to me personally. It’s just about getting back on track at this point.”

Free Agent Stock Watch 2020: Southwest Division

January 10th, 2020 at 9:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:

Derrick Favors, Pelicans, 28, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $37.6MM deal in 2018
A power forward by trade, Favors has emerged as the Pelicans’ starting center. Over a nine-game span prior to Friday’s action, Favors posted six double-doubles while averaging 11.2 PPG and 14.4 RPG. With an expiring $17.65MM contract, Favors is a candidate to be dealt before February’s deadline. Favors left Friday’s game with a hamstring injury but as long as it’s not serious, he could be an intriguing rental. Several teams were already monitoring Favors prior to his recent productive run. Jaxson Hayes is the future center for the Pelicans and Favors doesn’t stretch defenses but his steady contributions will draw some attention in a weak free agent market.

Isaiah Hartenstein, Rockets, 21, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.92MM deal in 2018
Hartenstein doesn’t get many opportunities but he puts up strong numbers when the Rockets are shorthanded in the frontcourt. In a three-game stretch in late December, Hartenstein averaged 14.7 PPG on 73% percent shooting and 11.3 RPG. In six G League outings this season, he has posted 21.3 PPG, 14.5 RPG and 4.7 APG in 33.3 MPG. The Rockets have a June 29 deadline to guarantee Hartenstein’s $1.66MM salary. It’s hard to see the Rockets letting the 21-year-old 7-footer walk away at that price.

Josh Jackson, Grizzlies, 22, SF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $18.2MM deal in 2017
Following two troubled seasons with the Suns, Jackson was dealt to the Grizzlies during the offseason. Memphis decided to have Jackson work on improving his game and reputation at the G League level. The fourth overall pick of the 2017 draft has toiled there during the first three months of the season. Jackson was suspended two games for violating team rules last month, then went into an offensive funk until a 35-point outburst against the Iowa Wolves Monday. There’s no indication the Grizzlies have any interest in re-signing the unrestricted free agent this summer.

Ryan Broekhoff, Mavericks, 29, SG (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $2.25MM deal in 2018
Broekhoff suffered a fractured left fibula late last month and is out indefinitely. Tough break — literally — for the Australian swingman, who wasn’t playing much anyway. He has appeared in 10 games this season, averaging 3.7 PPG in 7.7 MPG, after playing 42 games with Dallas last season in his first NBA campaign. Dallas would have to extend a $1.9MM qualifying offer to him in June to make him a restricted free agent. It seems likely that Broekhoff will return overseas next season to resume his career.

Jakob Poeltl, Spurs, 24, C (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $12.2MM deal in 2016
The Raptors’ 2016 lottery pick hasn’t really developed with a change of scenery over the past two seasons. Though Poeltl has made modest increases in his rebounding, assist and shot-blocking averages this season, his playing time remains limited to 15-20 minutes per game. The 7-footer doesn’t provide much offensively and has yet to develop a 3-point shot. He’s also a poor free throw shooter. San Antonio would have to extend a $5.1MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. That’s a reasonable price for a second-unit player but San Antonio may let him walk and seek an upgrade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

And-Ones: Edwards, Cap Room, Sellers, Betting

January 7th, 2020 at 11:26am CST by Luke Adams

With LaMelo Ball and R.J. Hampton battling injuries this winter and James Wiseman leaving Memphis to begin preparing for the 2020 draft, Georgia guard Anthony Edwards is one of the few candidates for the No. 1 pick that NBA evaluators can actually watch these days. And, as Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated relays, scouts have been impressed so far by what they’ve seen from the freshman.

“[Edwards] is a pro, everything about him. Athleticism. Skill. The ability to score,” one NBA scout told Spears. “He can defend. He is one of those guys that will be better on the next level because he will be playing with better teammates. When he walks onto the floor, you have the feeling that you’re watching a pro. And then the game starts and he shows you he is one with his versatility and skill.”

While he currently ranks behind Ball on ESPN’s big board, Edwards is considered a candidate to be the first player drafted this spring. So far, there’s no consensus among experts on which prospect will be the top pick, and Edwards tells Spears that his goal is to become that player.

“That’s my dream, to be the No. 1 pick,” Edwards said. “So, all I’m doing is just working hard. And whoever gets the pick, they will do whatever they want to do with. I just pray it would be me.”

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

The Hawks, Grizzlies, Cavaliers, Hornets, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Suns, and Pelicans are the teams expected to have cap room available during the 2020 offseason. Danny Leroux of The Athletic examines how much spending power those teams will have and what factors could affect their flexibility.
In his in-depth preview of the 2020 trade deadline, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) breaks down the most and least valuable contracts for each team and speculates on the topics currently under discussion in each front office.
Dan Devine of The Ringer identifies 11 teams that may be sellers at next month’s trade deadline, including obvious candidates like the Knicks and Cavaliers, as well as teams that will be more reluctant to sell, such as the Kings and Timberwolves.
Wayne Parry of The Associated Press explores how professional sports leagues – including the NBA – are cashing in on legalized sports betting by selling data to bookmakers.

Josh Jackson Impressing For Memphis Hustle

January 2nd, 2020 at 7:13pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Undefeated’s Marc J. Spears spoke with Grizzlies forward Josh Jackson, currently logging time with Memphis’ G League affiliate, the Memphis Hustle. “The last time I had fun like this was maybe AAU,” Jackson, taken No. 4 in the 2017 draft by the Suns, told Spears. “Don’t feel bad for me. It’s an opportunity. I am just thankful I get to play basketball.” Jackson is averaging 20.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.3 APG and 2.6 made triples through 18 Hustle bouts.